Adam Grossman

Comments:

• The government’s debt can be measured two different ways: gross debt and net debt. I used net debt, which excludes debt owed to another branch of the government. Gross debt is indeed at 120%+. By either measure, debt is near all-time highs, but thank you for the question. To see the detailed numbers by year: https://www.cbo.gov/publication/59946#_idTextAnchor019 this link also explains how each debt measure is calculated.

  Post: Paying the Piper

  Link to comment from July 7, 2024

• Thanks, Nuke. I appreciate that. But I do think it’s wise for us to keep an eye on AI. In my experience, its writing isn’t very interesting, but it’s well-organized, and when it’s accurate, it can be quite helpful in providing basic information.  In my view, AI is really just the next generation of search engines.  But we’ll see!

  Post: Life’s Potholes

  Link to comment from May 29, 2024

• Thanks so much for the kind words, Max! I don't know much else about Carveth Read but have always loved that line.

  Post: Life’s Potholes

  Link to comment from May 29, 2024

• Thanks, Rick! I really appreciate it.  And congratulations to you on #150!

  Post: Life’s Potholes

  Link to comment from May 29, 2024

• Thank you for your thoughts on this and for sharing your story. That’s fascinating about your father’s experience. Isn’t it amazing how quickly the human mind will adapt when placed in extreme environments?

  Post: Life’s Potholes

  Link to comment from May 29, 2024

• Thanks, David. I think that Black Swans are, by definition, random, but they happen frequently enough that we all need to expect that they will arrive far more frequently than we’d like. I don’t have it in front of me, but there’s a great footnote in When Genius Failed that explains that the risk that took down Long-Term Capital should have happened in something like once every billion years.

  Post: Life’s Potholes

  Link to comment from May 29, 2024

• Thanks, and I agree.  The risks we face also evolve as we age. As we move into retirement, one of the biggest is longevity risk—that is, the risk of outliving our savings. Risk, in other words, is a moving target.

  Post: Life’s Potholes

  Link to comment from May 29, 2024

• Thanks for the kind words. I agree that we are in the infancy of AI. Maybe HumbleDollar will run this experiment every year so we can see how it evolves. I suspect it will continue to improve.

  Post: Life’s Potholes

  Link to comment from May 29, 2024

• Thanks, Steve, for your thoughts on this. I agree that risk is an awfully difficult concept to even define. If you haven't read it, I definitely recommend Howard Marks's "The Most Important Thing," which dives deep on this topic.

  Post: Life’s Potholes

  Link to comment from May 29, 2024

• That's an interesting framework, thank you.

  Post: Life’s Potholes

  Link to comment from May 29, 2024