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One Good Call?

"My current thinking for cognitive decline and ageing is a little different. Even though I'm only approaching sixty, I'm already planning to use around half my portfolio to purchase a single premium immediate annuity at roughly seventy-five. My wife has her own portfolio, and I'll be encouraging her to do the same. If we both follow that path, we'd cover our future spending needs without worry — while still keeping a substantial sum aside for flexibility and whatever inheritance we might want to leave behind."
- Mark Crothers
Read more »

Navigating a Turbulent Career

A RECENT article by Adam Grossman relayed an interesting story of the 2015 merger of Kraft and Heinz.  One of the aspects that made this merger unique was the involvement of Warren Buffet. Adam’s story is a cautionary tale for investors – research shows that, more often than not, the hoped-for corporate synergies and growth are elusive. The story provides more evidence for the benefits of indexing to investors. There is, however, another side to this story that is very important to an individual’s personal financial life. In addition to being investors, most of us are, or were, employees of a corporation.  What if you are an employee of a company that is acquiring another company, being acquired by another company, or part of a merger?  How do you navigate the challenges of this significant career event? In late November 1985, I interviewed with RCA’s Astro Space division in East Windsor, NJ.  Several weeks later I interviewed with GE Aerospace in King of Prussia, PA.  In between those 2 interviews it was announced that GE was acquiring RCA. I received an offer for a position in the thermal engineering group of both companies. The GE offer was for $32,000, $4,000 more than the RCA offer.  The GE plant was about 8 miles from our home; the RCA plant was 62 miles from our home.   I accepted the GE offer.  When I called the RCA manager to tell him my decision, he was professional and understanding.  He remarked that “who knows, we may end up working together and you got a better deal out of it”. Four months later that RCA manager became the senior manager of the merged thermal engineering organization – my new boss’s boss. Seven years later my division was sold to Martin Marietta, whose space operations were based in Denver, CO. Two years later Martin Marietta merged with Lockheed, in Sunnyvale, CA, to form Lockheed Martin.  Later that year it was announced that the company was closing its 2 east coast plants and moving the work to Sunnyvale and Denver.   Over the 31 years starting in 1986, I was part of numerous acquisitions, mergers, two plant shut-downs, and being sold to a private equity company. Somehow, I managed to stay employed, and grow my career. I wasn’t special – hundreds of colleagues trod the same path. When I look back I can identify some of the attributes that helped me navigate a turbulent career. Build your Reputation: Be someone that people want to hire. If you move up, be someone that people want to work for. My first senior manager position came about because the hiring team remembered me from 4 years previous  Maintain Flexibility: Are you willing to travel or relocate? Would you take a lateral position, or even a step down, if it meant keeping a job?  During my career I traveled extensively, commuted 62 miles for four years, and took new positions that challenged me and my family.  Focus on your Skills: What are the skills and behaviors that are valued by your company, and differentiate successful employees? These include technical, leadership, managerial, and interpersonal skills. My first GE manager provided a sound technical base, but also taught me just as much about work ethic, and professionalism. Focus on the Culture:  Combing organizations means combining cultures, just as much as products or processes.  This may require you to be open to a different way of doing things. It requires a willingness to learn and grow.  It will also likely require some diplomacy skills.  Change is hard for employees, and nobody enjoys being told their processes or products are inferior.  When we merged with RCA, we found there was a significant difference in the way that managers and senior technical leaders challenged their employees in public forums, in front of customers.  GE preferred to work out technical differences and approaches in-house, and present a united front to customers. This took some time to resolve into a shared approach. Focus on the People:  When my first GE manager retired, we held a group luncheon. He was universally liked and respected.  Someone described him as the best “BTU chaser” he’d ever seen, which was high praise. He gave a short speech at his retirement, where he discussed the exciting space programs he had supported. He ended that the thing that made his career special wasn’t the projects and technology, it was the people.   I was also fortunate to work on some exciting, ground-breaking projects.  It wasn’t always easy, and the path certainly wasn’t straight.  Looking back, it is the people I think of most, and I miss the most.    Richard Connor is a semi-retired aerospace engineer with a keen interest in finance. He enjoys a wide variety of other interests, including chasing grandkids, space, sports, travel, winemaking and reading. Follow Rick on Twitter @RConnor609 and check out his earlier articles.
Read more »

Scent of a Cheapskate: Frugality Gone Wrong

"What can I say, Dan? Divorce saved you from greater stupidity than even I’m capable of accomplishing… always a silver lining! 😂"
- Mark Crothers
Read more »

Penny Wise, Pound Foolish

"I used to take a scissors and cut open the toothpaste tube, unfold it, and use my toothbrush to scrape out the last of the paste. Now, I no longer need to save the last penny."
- John D.
Read more »

Fixing Social Security once and for all

"My proposed $100,000 cap on FICA wages for benefit calculation purposes may have a greater effect in improving funding than the CRFB's proposal to cap household Social Security benefits at $100,000 a year. Their proposal would leave the FICA wage base provisions unchanged, shifting the program into more of a welfare arrangement - disconnecting wages for tax purposes from wages for benefit calculation purposes. CRFB asserts that their proposal would close 55% of the 75 year funding shortfall. https://www.crfb.org/sixfigurelimit"
- BenefitJack
Read more »

Financial Tension

"It is likely none of us on Humble Dollar have enormous wealth 🤔 Some, likely many, like you do what we can."
- William Housley
Read more »

A Bit More Humble

I LOVE TO PLAN. My wife, Sharon, often catches me nestled in my chair, gazing out a window at a distant object as my mind wanders even farther afield. My musings become scribbles on a scrap of paper, destined for discussion with Sharon at length over coffee and long walks. Eventually, we hammer out the settled strategies we think will best bring us happiness in adventures ranging from our next hike to the next few decades of life. Of course, I know our intended track, or even the final destination, may change over time. I'm just a little boat on a big sea, blown about by winds and carried along by deep currents that may push me far off my charted course. Still, though it may be somewhat of an illusion, I cling to the comfort of control. Smooth sailing. And for most of 2025, life was comfortable. In April, I shifted to part-time work as a physical therapist. I termed my new lifestyle “semi-retirement”. My reduced salary, added to Sharon’s contribution from a few hours’ work each month, still gave us enough income from our jobs to cover expenses, with leftovers for a little investing and so forth. Along with that, we gained enough new-found, free time to pursue a bit more fun while catching up on projects around the house. As an added bonus, I expected delaying full retirement a couple of years might lead to more happiness in the decades ahead. How so? Because my post-retirement plan was still a work-in-progress. “I studied and planned for two years before I retired,” Mike told me at a large family gathering. In his mid-70s, his excitement was evident as he recounted his active lifestyle. At home, his schedule includes participation in our state’s Master Gardener program and regular trips to the gym. Abroad, he organizes groups to walk the Camino de Santiago in Spain.  I had a yen for a fulfilling retirement like Mike’s. My roster of reasons to jump out of bed each morning might have a different twist or two, but I wanted the same zest for living. My unique recipe for retirement happiness still needed time to cook, however. Oh, I knew I had plenty to keep my hands active. Even so, I wasn’t yet convinced I could substitute the mental stimulation provided by my patients and colleagues. According to a decades-long study from Harvard University, some folks discover that work supplies satisfaction not found elsewhere. I have a nagging suspicion I’m one of those restless souls, and I dreaded the thought of finding myself adrift, with little sense of purpose beyond indulging my own selfish needs. And let’s face it: I still get a thrill from watching my money grow. Earning an income delays the need to plunge my fingers into my pile of savings to pay the grocery bill. All told, I figured my best move was to stay put until a clear exit appeared. Unexpected storm. Meanwhile, my employer was moving in its own interest. In December, I learned that with the new year came new management for our outpatient physical therapy clinics. Our hospital system opted to outsource operations with the hope of securing guaranteed revenue. After the revamping, my boss would keep some new iteration of her job, but the outpatient clinics would report to the new administration, rather than her. The news was a blow to my ordered life. No longer was I sailing through calm waters toward the sunset of my choosing. Instead, I faced the probability of turbulence as our clinic transitioned to the new system. And we were already struggling to implement a comprehensive computer software replacement that would take many more months to fashion into a serviceable tool. I sensed danger ahead. Or, at the very least, a year or two of starts, sputters and stops before the clinic machine was humming again. I decided to bail, and on February 18th clocked my last day with my former employer, four days after Sharon. It turns out my radar was right. The details are dirty, but the gist is the transition is stalled and leadership of the affected clinics in limbo. New direction. On the face of the situation, it seems my “clear exit” did indeed appear, and that I acted with autonomy to choose the course of my life. After all, I had exercised the option of jumping out of a job headed south and into the retirement I had dreamed of for decades. On top of that, I landed in a new, part-time job with Miranda, an old friend. Back in December, Miranda called to ask if I could help cover patients in her clinic while she was out on extended leave. I wasn’t seeking more work, but she needed help. I couldn’t refuse. So, starting with one half-day per week in January, I’m now up to two or three half-days. Miranda’s made it clear I’m welcome to work more, but I’m satisfied for now. And the atmosphere in the clinic is great. It’s staffed by easy-going folks who are serious about patient care. Still, it’s hard to shake the sense I’ve been scrambling to right myself after getting shoved off balance. During the last few weeks with my former employer, I had the feeling I was getting pushed out of a satisfying job before I was ready to leave. My usual optimism suffered, as did my sleep habits and typical interests, like gardening and writing. Why? Perhaps the answer is the sudden, unplanned departure from my job. Research indicates forced retirement can lead to negative feelings about health and to depression. I have to admit I found my new temperament described in the pages of a research paper.  Other studies on job loss, found here, here and here, examine and compare the emotions experienced by losing a job to that of other types of loss, such as grief after the death of a loved one. Considered in this light, the Kubler-Ross model of the five stages of grief might help someone--like me–understand and deal with the psychological aftermath of job loss. Peering ahead. Back to my reality, I know I’m painting a grim picture of a life that’s actually very blessed. Others have experienced far worse with fewer complaints. My perceived suffering pales beside that of a person who’s lost a loved one, or an income needed for survival. Also, as I get used to the shift in my lifestyle, I’m beginning to find my groove again. Last spring, I started the season thinking I was at life’s helm, confident I could steer in any direction and choose my pace. I was thankful, but a little smug as I laid plans for my vision of retirement. One year later, I’m still planning and still thankful–but a bit more humble.   Ed is a semi-retired physical therapist who lives and works in a small community near Atlanta. When he's not spending time with his church, family or friends, you may find him tending his garden and wondering if he will ever fully retire. Check out Ed’s earlier articles.
Read more »

What Bangladesh Taught Me About Enough

"One of the best things I have read on HD since we lost Jonathan. Thank you, Andrew, for reminding us what is really important in life. Chris"
- baldscreen
Read more »

Staying Rational

IT'S BEEN MORE than six years since Covid first entered our vocabulary. It goes without saying that investors have experienced a lot, and for better or worse, recent market events provide some useful lessons. The first has to do with the nature of the stock market. What drives stock prices? Open a finance textbook, and the answer will be clear: The value of a stock should equal the sum of the company’s future profits. This idea is known as intrinsic value, and it’s the textbook explanation of how stock prices work. But there’s clearly a disconnect, since stock prices bounce around far more than the math suggests they should.  How can we square this circle? Over the long term, the data tell us that intrinsic value is a valid idea. Chart the price of any given stock, then overlay the company’s profits, and there will often be a reasonably close relationship. But only if you’re Rip Van Winkle. Over shorter periods of time, anything can happen. Stocks often move far above or far below their intrinsic values in response to the news of the day.  Especially during times of economic uncertainty, intrinsic value analysis is typically cast aside and replaced by some combination of emotion, conjecture, speculation and storytelling. That’s what we saw in the early months of 2020. Stores were closed, employees had been sent home and the economy went into recession. And since no one had a crystal ball, that’s when storytellers were able to step in with their extreme predictions, causing the stock market to drop more than 30% in the space of six weeks. The lesson for investors: No one can predict when the next crisis will roll around or what form it will take. But there is one very reasonable way to be able to keep it in perspective: by remembering that, at the end of the day, intrinsic value is what matters, and ultimately that’s what drives stock prices. Basic arithmetic illustrates how this can help us manage through the next crisis. Consider that the price-to-earnings ratio of the U.S. stock market has historically averaged around 16. The average company’s total stock market value, in other words, has been equal to about 16 times its annual profits.  Now let’s imagine that the next crisis results in every company in America losing an entire year of earnings. That’s extreme and hasn’t happened since the Depression, but it’s useful as a thought experiment. In that scenario, what would be the impact to those companies’ intrinsic value? In simple terms, it would be just one-sixteenth, or a modest 6%. What if a crisis were so severe that a company lost two years of earnings? Using this simple model, the impact would be about 12%. This is meaningful, I believe, because crises typically result in stock price declines that are far more severe than just 6% or 12%. In 2000 and in 2008, the market dropped more than 50%. While every crisis is different, I think it’s useful to keep these numbers in mind whenever the next geopolitical event causes stocks to drop. When that occurs, storytellers will inevitably take over, and the news will be downbeat. But if stocks drop to an extreme degree, as they have in the past, we can probably view it as an overreaction. That won’t help anyone’s portfolio recover any faster, but it should help us tune out the worst of the forecasters and maintain our equanimity. How else can you maintain an even keel during a market crisis? It’s important to understand the impact of recency bias. This bias is the tendency to extrapolate from current conditions, to assume that the future will look like the present, and to downplay the possibility that things might change. That tendency is what contributed to the cycle of negative news during the depths of 2020, and this is why I think it’s so important for investors to be aware of market history.  Again, extensive analysis isn’t required. We need only look back across some of the crises the country has weathered, from the Civil War to the Depression to World War II. In each case, the economy recovered and went on to become larger and stronger than before. The lesson for investors: In the depths of a crisis, it’s very difficult to know when or how it will end. But a sense of history can help carry us through. Those are ways to manage through a crisis. Covid also provided a lesson on how to prepare—specifically, how to prepare our portfolios—for a future downturn. In 2022, investors were caught flat-footed when popular total-bond market funds delivered surprising losses. These funds are one pillar of the well-known three-fund portfolio and have traditionally been viewed as the default choice for a set-it-and-forget-it bond allocation. But in 2022, when the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates, these funds dropped a surprising 13%. That was during the same year that the U.S. stock market dropped nearly 20%, creating a very difficult situation for those in retirement and needing to withdraw from their portfolios. The lesson for investors: Total-bond market funds may be well diversified, but they carry risk along another very important dimension known as duration. This is a bond metric that measures, in simple terms, how long it will take for bondholders to be repaid, and it’s a key determinant of risk. The longer the duration, the greater the risk of loss when rates rise. While total-bond market funds have holdings across a broad range of durations, they average out to nearly six years. That’s why they lost so much value in 2022. What’s the alternative? Short-term bond funds tend to have a duration in the neighborhood of just two years. As a result, in 2022, short-term government bond funds like Vanguard’s Short-Term Treasury ETF (ticker: VGSH) lost a far more manageable 4% of their value. To be sure, every crisis is different, and it’s easy to rationalize about the past once it’s in the past. But these lessons, I think, can help us better prepare both our emotions and our portfolios for whatever comes next.   Adam M. Grossman is the founder of Mayport, a fixed-fee wealth management firm. Sign up for Adam's Daily Ideas email, follow him on X @AdamMGrossman and check out his earlier articles.
Read more »

Do retirees really struggle financially? Why and what to do?

"When we first retired 2 years ago, I wasn’t sure how things would be, but it has turned out like the middle income class that you mentioned in the studies. I also agree with what you wrote about location: high vs low cost areas. And so many people don’t have pensions now. One thing I thought of while I was reading your article and the comments was if multi-generational living will become more popular. We have friends who built a home in the late 1990s for this purpose so that one of the mothers could live with them. Chris"
- baldscreen
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The IRA Decision That Affects Your Kids

"It looks like, since children over age 18 are not an "eligible designated beneficiary," the distribution is 10 years until 12-31 of the 10th year after death. BUT the difference is if a person has not started RMDs, the 10 years has no minimum, but if RMDs have started, the beneficiary must use the single life expectancy table (for themself), until the last year when the account must be emptied. This is for when the surviving spouse rolls the other spouse's traditional IRA into their own. Just make sure you've named beneficiaries and that they are the ones you want named."
- JeffreyK
Read more »

One Good Call?

"My current thinking for cognitive decline and ageing is a little different. Even though I'm only approaching sixty, I'm already planning to use around half my portfolio to purchase a single premium immediate annuity at roughly seventy-five. My wife has her own portfolio, and I'll be encouraging her to do the same. If we both follow that path, we'd cover our future spending needs without worry — while still keeping a substantial sum aside for flexibility and whatever inheritance we might want to leave behind."
- Mark Crothers
Read more »

Navigating a Turbulent Career

A RECENT article by Adam Grossman relayed an interesting story of the 2015 merger of Kraft and Heinz.  One of the aspects that made this merger unique was the involvement of Warren Buffet. Adam’s story is a cautionary tale for investors – research shows that, more often than not, the hoped-for corporate synergies and growth are elusive. The story provides more evidence for the benefits of indexing to investors. There is, however, another side to this story that is very important to an individual’s personal financial life. In addition to being investors, most of us are, or were, employees of a corporation.  What if you are an employee of a company that is acquiring another company, being acquired by another company, or part of a merger?  How do you navigate the challenges of this significant career event? In late November 1985, I interviewed with RCA’s Astro Space division in East Windsor, NJ.  Several weeks later I interviewed with GE Aerospace in King of Prussia, PA.  In between those 2 interviews it was announced that GE was acquiring RCA. I received an offer for a position in the thermal engineering group of both companies. The GE offer was for $32,000, $4,000 more than the RCA offer.  The GE plant was about 8 miles from our home; the RCA plant was 62 miles from our home.   I accepted the GE offer.  When I called the RCA manager to tell him my decision, he was professional and understanding.  He remarked that “who knows, we may end up working together and you got a better deal out of it”. Four months later that RCA manager became the senior manager of the merged thermal engineering organization – my new boss’s boss. Seven years later my division was sold to Martin Marietta, whose space operations were based in Denver, CO. Two years later Martin Marietta merged with Lockheed, in Sunnyvale, CA, to form Lockheed Martin.  Later that year it was announced that the company was closing its 2 east coast plants and moving the work to Sunnyvale and Denver.   Over the 31 years starting in 1986, I was part of numerous acquisitions, mergers, two plant shut-downs, and being sold to a private equity company. Somehow, I managed to stay employed, and grow my career. I wasn’t special – hundreds of colleagues trod the same path. When I look back I can identify some of the attributes that helped me navigate a turbulent career. Build your Reputation: Be someone that people want to hire. If you move up, be someone that people want to work for. My first senior manager position came about because the hiring team remembered me from 4 years previous  Maintain Flexibility: Are you willing to travel or relocate? Would you take a lateral position, or even a step down, if it meant keeping a job?  During my career I traveled extensively, commuted 62 miles for four years, and took new positions that challenged me and my family.  Focus on your Skills: What are the skills and behaviors that are valued by your company, and differentiate successful employees? These include technical, leadership, managerial, and interpersonal skills. My first GE manager provided a sound technical base, but also taught me just as much about work ethic, and professionalism. Focus on the Culture:  Combing organizations means combining cultures, just as much as products or processes.  This may require you to be open to a different way of doing things. It requires a willingness to learn and grow.  It will also likely require some diplomacy skills.  Change is hard for employees, and nobody enjoys being told their processes or products are inferior.  When we merged with RCA, we found there was a significant difference in the way that managers and senior technical leaders challenged their employees in public forums, in front of customers.  GE preferred to work out technical differences and approaches in-house, and present a united front to customers. This took some time to resolve into a shared approach. Focus on the People:  When my first GE manager retired, we held a group luncheon. He was universally liked and respected.  Someone described him as the best “BTU chaser” he’d ever seen, which was high praise. He gave a short speech at his retirement, where he discussed the exciting space programs he had supported. He ended that the thing that made his career special wasn’t the projects and technology, it was the people.   I was also fortunate to work on some exciting, ground-breaking projects.  It wasn’t always easy, and the path certainly wasn’t straight.  Looking back, it is the people I think of most, and I miss the most.    Richard Connor is a semi-retired aerospace engineer with a keen interest in finance. He enjoys a wide variety of other interests, including chasing grandkids, space, sports, travel, winemaking and reading. Follow Rick on Twitter @RConnor609 and check out his earlier articles.
Read more »

Scent of a Cheapskate: Frugality Gone Wrong

"What can I say, Dan? Divorce saved you from greater stupidity than even I’m capable of accomplishing… always a silver lining! 😂"
- Mark Crothers
Read more »

Penny Wise, Pound Foolish

"I used to take a scissors and cut open the toothpaste tube, unfold it, and use my toothbrush to scrape out the last of the paste. Now, I no longer need to save the last penny."
- John D.
Read more »

Fixing Social Security once and for all

"My proposed $100,000 cap on FICA wages for benefit calculation purposes may have a greater effect in improving funding than the CRFB's proposal to cap household Social Security benefits at $100,000 a year. Their proposal would leave the FICA wage base provisions unchanged, shifting the program into more of a welfare arrangement - disconnecting wages for tax purposes from wages for benefit calculation purposes. CRFB asserts that their proposal would close 55% of the 75 year funding shortfall. https://www.crfb.org/sixfigurelimit"
- BenefitJack
Read more »

Financial Tension

"It is likely none of us on Humble Dollar have enormous wealth 🤔 Some, likely many, like you do what we can."
- William Housley
Read more »

A Bit More Humble

I LOVE TO PLAN. My wife, Sharon, often catches me nestled in my chair, gazing out a window at a distant object as my mind wanders even farther afield. My musings become scribbles on a scrap of paper, destined for discussion with Sharon at length over coffee and long walks. Eventually, we hammer out the settled strategies we think will best bring us happiness in adventures ranging from our next hike to the next few decades of life. Of course, I know our intended track, or even the final destination, may change over time. I'm just a little boat on a big sea, blown about by winds and carried along by deep currents that may push me far off my charted course. Still, though it may be somewhat of an illusion, I cling to the comfort of control. Smooth sailing. And for most of 2025, life was comfortable. In April, I shifted to part-time work as a physical therapist. I termed my new lifestyle “semi-retirement”. My reduced salary, added to Sharon’s contribution from a few hours’ work each month, still gave us enough income from our jobs to cover expenses, with leftovers for a little investing and so forth. Along with that, we gained enough new-found, free time to pursue a bit more fun while catching up on projects around the house. As an added bonus, I expected delaying full retirement a couple of years might lead to more happiness in the decades ahead. How so? Because my post-retirement plan was still a work-in-progress. “I studied and planned for two years before I retired,” Mike told me at a large family gathering. In his mid-70s, his excitement was evident as he recounted his active lifestyle. At home, his schedule includes participation in our state’s Master Gardener program and regular trips to the gym. Abroad, he organizes groups to walk the Camino de Santiago in Spain.  I had a yen for a fulfilling retirement like Mike’s. My roster of reasons to jump out of bed each morning might have a different twist or two, but I wanted the same zest for living. My unique recipe for retirement happiness still needed time to cook, however. Oh, I knew I had plenty to keep my hands active. Even so, I wasn’t yet convinced I could substitute the mental stimulation provided by my patients and colleagues. According to a decades-long study from Harvard University, some folks discover that work supplies satisfaction not found elsewhere. I have a nagging suspicion I’m one of those restless souls, and I dreaded the thought of finding myself adrift, with little sense of purpose beyond indulging my own selfish needs. And let’s face it: I still get a thrill from watching my money grow. Earning an income delays the need to plunge my fingers into my pile of savings to pay the grocery bill. All told, I figured my best move was to stay put until a clear exit appeared. Unexpected storm. Meanwhile, my employer was moving in its own interest. In December, I learned that with the new year came new management for our outpatient physical therapy clinics. Our hospital system opted to outsource operations with the hope of securing guaranteed revenue. After the revamping, my boss would keep some new iteration of her job, but the outpatient clinics would report to the new administration, rather than her. The news was a blow to my ordered life. No longer was I sailing through calm waters toward the sunset of my choosing. Instead, I faced the probability of turbulence as our clinic transitioned to the new system. And we were already struggling to implement a comprehensive computer software replacement that would take many more months to fashion into a serviceable tool. I sensed danger ahead. Or, at the very least, a year or two of starts, sputters and stops before the clinic machine was humming again. I decided to bail, and on February 18th clocked my last day with my former employer, four days after Sharon. It turns out my radar was right. The details are dirty, but the gist is the transition is stalled and leadership of the affected clinics in limbo. New direction. On the face of the situation, it seems my “clear exit” did indeed appear, and that I acted with autonomy to choose the course of my life. After all, I had exercised the option of jumping out of a job headed south and into the retirement I had dreamed of for decades. On top of that, I landed in a new, part-time job with Miranda, an old friend. Back in December, Miranda called to ask if I could help cover patients in her clinic while she was out on extended leave. I wasn’t seeking more work, but she needed help. I couldn’t refuse. So, starting with one half-day per week in January, I’m now up to two or three half-days. Miranda’s made it clear I’m welcome to work more, but I’m satisfied for now. And the atmosphere in the clinic is great. It’s staffed by easy-going folks who are serious about patient care. Still, it’s hard to shake the sense I’ve been scrambling to right myself after getting shoved off balance. During the last few weeks with my former employer, I had the feeling I was getting pushed out of a satisfying job before I was ready to leave. My usual optimism suffered, as did my sleep habits and typical interests, like gardening and writing. Why? Perhaps the answer is the sudden, unplanned departure from my job. Research indicates forced retirement can lead to negative feelings about health and to depression. I have to admit I found my new temperament described in the pages of a research paper.  Other studies on job loss, found here, here and here, examine and compare the emotions experienced by losing a job to that of other types of loss, such as grief after the death of a loved one. Considered in this light, the Kubler-Ross model of the five stages of grief might help someone--like me–understand and deal with the psychological aftermath of job loss. Peering ahead. Back to my reality, I know I’m painting a grim picture of a life that’s actually very blessed. Others have experienced far worse with fewer complaints. My perceived suffering pales beside that of a person who’s lost a loved one, or an income needed for survival. Also, as I get used to the shift in my lifestyle, I’m beginning to find my groove again. Last spring, I started the season thinking I was at life’s helm, confident I could steer in any direction and choose my pace. I was thankful, but a little smug as I laid plans for my vision of retirement. One year later, I’m still planning and still thankful–but a bit more humble.   Ed is a semi-retired physical therapist who lives and works in a small community near Atlanta. When he's not spending time with his church, family or friends, you may find him tending his garden and wondering if he will ever fully retire. Check out Ed’s earlier articles.
Read more »

What Bangladesh Taught Me About Enough

"One of the best things I have read on HD since we lost Jonathan. Thank you, Andrew, for reminding us what is really important in life. Chris"
- baldscreen
Read more »

Staying Rational

IT'S BEEN MORE than six years since Covid first entered our vocabulary. It goes without saying that investors have experienced a lot, and for better or worse, recent market events provide some useful lessons. The first has to do with the nature of the stock market. What drives stock prices? Open a finance textbook, and the answer will be clear: The value of a stock should equal the sum of the company’s future profits. This idea is known as intrinsic value, and it’s the textbook explanation of how stock prices work. But there’s clearly a disconnect, since stock prices bounce around far more than the math suggests they should.  How can we square this circle? Over the long term, the data tell us that intrinsic value is a valid idea. Chart the price of any given stock, then overlay the company’s profits, and there will often be a reasonably close relationship. But only if you’re Rip Van Winkle. Over shorter periods of time, anything can happen. Stocks often move far above or far below their intrinsic values in response to the news of the day.  Especially during times of economic uncertainty, intrinsic value analysis is typically cast aside and replaced by some combination of emotion, conjecture, speculation and storytelling. That’s what we saw in the early months of 2020. Stores were closed, employees had been sent home and the economy went into recession. And since no one had a crystal ball, that’s when storytellers were able to step in with their extreme predictions, causing the stock market to drop more than 30% in the space of six weeks. The lesson for investors: No one can predict when the next crisis will roll around or what form it will take. But there is one very reasonable way to be able to keep it in perspective: by remembering that, at the end of the day, intrinsic value is what matters, and ultimately that’s what drives stock prices. Basic arithmetic illustrates how this can help us manage through the next crisis. Consider that the price-to-earnings ratio of the U.S. stock market has historically averaged around 16. The average company’s total stock market value, in other words, has been equal to about 16 times its annual profits.  Now let’s imagine that the next crisis results in every company in America losing an entire year of earnings. That’s extreme and hasn’t happened since the Depression, but it’s useful as a thought experiment. In that scenario, what would be the impact to those companies’ intrinsic value? In simple terms, it would be just one-sixteenth, or a modest 6%. What if a crisis were so severe that a company lost two years of earnings? Using this simple model, the impact would be about 12%. This is meaningful, I believe, because crises typically result in stock price declines that are far more severe than just 6% or 12%. In 2000 and in 2008, the market dropped more than 50%. While every crisis is different, I think it’s useful to keep these numbers in mind whenever the next geopolitical event causes stocks to drop. When that occurs, storytellers will inevitably take over, and the news will be downbeat. But if stocks drop to an extreme degree, as they have in the past, we can probably view it as an overreaction. That won’t help anyone’s portfolio recover any faster, but it should help us tune out the worst of the forecasters and maintain our equanimity. How else can you maintain an even keel during a market crisis? It’s important to understand the impact of recency bias. This bias is the tendency to extrapolate from current conditions, to assume that the future will look like the present, and to downplay the possibility that things might change. That tendency is what contributed to the cycle of negative news during the depths of 2020, and this is why I think it’s so important for investors to be aware of market history.  Again, extensive analysis isn’t required. We need only look back across some of the crises the country has weathered, from the Civil War to the Depression to World War II. In each case, the economy recovered and went on to become larger and stronger than before. The lesson for investors: In the depths of a crisis, it’s very difficult to know when or how it will end. But a sense of history can help carry us through. Those are ways to manage through a crisis. Covid also provided a lesson on how to prepare—specifically, how to prepare our portfolios—for a future downturn. In 2022, investors were caught flat-footed when popular total-bond market funds delivered surprising losses. These funds are one pillar of the well-known three-fund portfolio and have traditionally been viewed as the default choice for a set-it-and-forget-it bond allocation. But in 2022, when the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates, these funds dropped a surprising 13%. That was during the same year that the U.S. stock market dropped nearly 20%, creating a very difficult situation for those in retirement and needing to withdraw from their portfolios. The lesson for investors: Total-bond market funds may be well diversified, but they carry risk along another very important dimension known as duration. This is a bond metric that measures, in simple terms, how long it will take for bondholders to be repaid, and it’s a key determinant of risk. The longer the duration, the greater the risk of loss when rates rise. While total-bond market funds have holdings across a broad range of durations, they average out to nearly six years. That’s why they lost so much value in 2022. What’s the alternative? Short-term bond funds tend to have a duration in the neighborhood of just two years. As a result, in 2022, short-term government bond funds like Vanguard’s Short-Term Treasury ETF (ticker: VGSH) lost a far more manageable 4% of their value. To be sure, every crisis is different, and it’s easy to rationalize about the past once it’s in the past. But these lessons, I think, can help us better prepare both our emotions and our portfolios for whatever comes next.   Adam M. Grossman is the founder of Mayport, a fixed-fee wealth management firm. Sign up for Adam's Daily Ideas email, follow him on X @AdamMGrossman and check out his earlier articles.
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Manifesto

NO. 13: FACED with an unknown future, we should diversify our investments, buy insurance, keep some cash—and accept that, in retrospect, these precautions will often seem unnecessary.

act

CHECK YOUR FUND expenses. If you own index funds, aim for weighted average annual expenses below 0.15%. If you own active funds, you’ll pay more—but allocate enough to index funds to push your portfolio average below 0.4%. By holding down costs, you’ll keep more of what you make, plus low-cost funds typically beat high-cost competitors.

Truths

NO. 22: MONEY BUYS happiness, but this could be partly explained by a focusing illusion: When asked about their happiness, the wealthy ponder their good fortune, prompting them to say they’re happy. Moreover, research suggests happiness doesn't rise in lockstep with income. Instead, as our income increases, it takes more and more dollars to boost our happiness.

think

SIGNALING. How we spend and invest our money often has less to do with what we want—and instead it's driven more by the signals we want to send to others. Owning a hedge fund signals we’re wealthy. Driving a Prius signals we’re concerned about the environment. Going to a classical music concert tells our friends that we’re cultured.

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Manifesto

NO. 13: FACED with an unknown future, we should diversify our investments, buy insurance, keep some cash—and accept that, in retrospect, these precautions will often seem unnecessary.

Spotlight: Behavior

Never Enough

MANY FINANCIAL IDEAS are tough to embrace. But perhaps the toughest can be summed up in one simple word: enough.
Will we ever feel like we have enough and that we’ve accomplished enough? Accepting that we have enough and done enough might seem like worthy goals, a serene acceptance that’s possible for those at peace with themselves and the world around them. Indeed, for many, “retirement” and “enough” seem to be pretty much synonymous,

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SCOTUS AND THE ODD COUPLE

At a time when American society has become increasingly polarized, I can’t think of a more propitious time to look at an example of how respect, civility and friendship  can flourish and overcome dissenting factious opinions.
There is no finer example of this than the friendship that existed between former Supreme Court Justices Antonin Scalia and Ruth Bader Ginsburg,  who eventually became to represent two branches of the Supreme Court.  Affectionately known as R.B.G by her supporters,

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How Do You Spell Research?

“Do your own research” are words that pop up in many forum posts, and I agree it’s important for people to dig into various things before making a purchase or forming opinions on important matters. Research for an unbiased writer probably includes things like interviewing sources, checking their facts, citing references, furnishing bibliographies, and etc. At the other end of the spectrum someone like my friend Bubba down at the local watering hole might consider Facebook,

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Care to join me on my yacht cruising the Mediterranean? Do you envy the super wealthy? RDQ

There was a time when I probably did- that was many years ago when sailing around the Mediterranean in my luxury yacht was a fantasy. Once, decades ago, I actually explored the cost of renting such a yacht. Back then it was $200,000 a week, plus tips for the crew and the cost of the food you selected. I was afraid I couldn’t afford the tips- but I could bring eight friends to impress.
These days I don’t envy of the billionaires,

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Three Things

As one saying goes, there are three things that should not be talked about in polite company: money, politics, and religion.  Here at HumbleDollar, we are given license to discuss (politely) the first topic. And have we ever discussed money here! Pretty much any aspect of personal finance you can think of has been addressed thoroughly and intelligently somewhere on this website.
When the conversation has veered into the second topic, politics, the discourse can get a bit chippy.

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A Personal Encounter with the Psychology of Money

I’ve been in a bit of a financial funk these last three months, and I’ve finally managed to overcome my heart and listen to my head. I’m really surprised how difficult I’ve found it, especially with my business and financial background. I mean, truly difficult.
It all started when I was setting up a 10-year fixed-term annuity before retirement. I had initially decided on a purchase amount and, to fund it, liquidated some of my developed world index tracker.

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Spotlight: Wasserman

Buying Power

IF YOU TOOK AN economics class in high school or college, you might see its usefulness as limited to helping with your grade point average. But the basic ideas you learned can still be valuable. Take this introductory microeconomics question: In a typical transaction, who has more power, the buyer or the seller? When I started teaching economics many years ago, I gave the nod to buyers. Invoking the notion of “consumer sovereignty,” I’d explain to students that buyers have the power to vote with their feet—by walking to another store. Buyers can also change tastes quicker than sellers can change their wares. That was a long time ago, however, before the internet. Now the balance of power is more even and perhaps tipping the other way. If you don’t buy something, there’s somebody a thousand miles away who might, thanks to online shopping.  That said, we consumers still have two powerful cards to play, as we strive for the upper hand in getting the goods and prices we want: Make yourself an elite customer. Think of it as a numbers game. When there are heaps of students seeking the services of a university, the university is free to pick and choose. That compels potential students to dress themselves up, participate in high school extracurriculars and do all sorts of primping to make themselves attractive customers. If students, however, are already prime potential customers—perhaps they’re at the top of their class or they’re star athletes—what they have to offer as a client is now scarcer than the university’s number of open spots. These students, in effect, join a sub-group of potential customers that the school will now court, offering scholarships and other inducements to get their business. This notion holds true beyond college. Offer to pay cash at the antique store and…
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Chews Wisely

THIS IS AN ARTICLE about not writing an article. It started with a Vox piece about the changes in society wrought by the 2007 introduction of the iPhone. One graph that caught my eye showed chewing gum sales steadily declining from 2007 to 2017, which was when the Vox article was published. No economist would ever tie an economic trend to any one factor, but the article proffered an interesting hypothesis. It suggested that, as more people looked at their iPhones while waiting in line at supermarkets, they were less prone to make spontaneous gum purchases at the checkout counter. Such sales are a substantial part of chewing gum sales. I thought the connection might be the basis of an interesting article about how our time and attention are limited resources, and when we connect with one thing, we unwittingly disconnect from another. Few would lament disconnecting from chewing gum in favor of the iPhone. But what about giving up a tried-and-true investment for the latest hot one? Or how about neglecting family time to get “just one more task” done at work? My gut saw the possible cause-and-effect connection. My heart liked the lesson that could be drawn from it. On top of all that, the article cited the generally reliable Euromonitor International as its data source. But to quote Ronald Reagan, who was quoting the Russian proverb “doveryai, no proveryai,” it’s important to “trust, but verify.” A little digging revealed some flaws. Aside from the probability of other contributing causes—such as the Great Recession making people cut out unnecessary purchases like chewing gum—it turns out that U.S. gum sales have been going up since the article was published, despite continued smartphone use. What’s more, there’s the issue of whether some gum chewers simply switched to a substitute good,…
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Terms of the Trade

CONSUMER ECONOMICS and media literacy have evolved to become important fields of study, analyzing the way consumers make decisions—and how those decisions can be nudged. Here are 20 of the tricks and techniques used by marketers and others: Aspirational buying. When consumers are encouraged to live like those they admire, even if they can’t afford it. Bandwagon appeal. The psychological nudge to do—or consume—something because others are doing it. Also known as FOMO, or fear of missing out. Bundling. The practice of offering multiple, usually related, goods and services at a lower price than if each item were purchased separately. This is great if you’ll use the entire bundle, but a waste of resources and money if you don’t. Dog whistle. An indirect or implied message meant to communicate with a particular group, often placed within a broader, more general message, thus allowing the messenger to deny meaning it. It can also reinforce a “you’re an insider” sense of affiliation. Saying something is only for “the right people” can make us want to be one of those “right people." Eye candy. Visual images that are superficially attractive and entertaining but are unnecessary or unrelated to the subject at hand, such as flashing lights and attractive spokespeople. False statistics. Using graphs, charts or statistics that sound precise—yet even the four out of five dentists who preferred Trident gum can find these numbers suspect. Feedback loop. A phenomenon whereby the media, reporting a purported “hot” trend, inspires consumers to follow the trend. This seemingly confirms the initial report. Flattery. A technique where the potential consumer is complimented as part of the sales pitch. "Because you're worth it."  "Don't you deserve the best?" Such phrases induce consumers to feel good about the product, making them more likely to buy. Freemium. Giving away a base-level product for free,…
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Spoonful of Advice

MORE THAN 100 YEARS ago, Thorstein Veblen, the father of behavioral economics, explained the thinking behind most of our purchases and investments with the help of two spoons. In his seminal 1899 book, The Theory of the Leisure Class, Veblen compared a handmade silver spoon, which back then could cost up to $20 ($600 in today’s money) with a machine-made aluminum spoon that cost about 20 cents ($6 today). Based on strict utility of purpose, there would seem no reason to spend one hundred times more for the silver one—and yet many people did it then and still do it today. There must be some other benefit to owning an expensive spoon, one that does the same job as a spoon with 1/100th of the cost. Veblen reckoned that the silver spoon’s added “benefit” for the owner derived from the personal joy of spending so much for such an expensive item and the consequent admiration the owner would garner from others. Veblen called this excessive spending “conspicuous waste.” He went on to give other examples of how wealthy people flaunt their money for personal validation and public envy, but the simple spoon dichotomy summarizes the concept well. The spoon comparison also allowed Veblen to point out the riskiness, and potential cost-benefit imbalance, in using luxury possessions to gain internal and external validation. In the case of the silver spoon, the 100-times outlay is only worth it if others know of the silver spoon. If the silver spoon turns out to be a forgery, all is wasted. If the aluminum spoon is made to resemble the silver one, the admiration might be lost. Above all, the entire process depends on others sharing the same values—that owning a silver spoon is admirable—and, if not, the flaunter runs the risk of receiving scorn rather than…
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When in Rome

WE DON’T NORMALLY think of classical philosophy as relevant to modern money management. Perhaps it’s the perception that philosophers live humble, financially insecure lives ruminating on ethereal matters. Or, as my businessman father said when he saw I was taking a philosophy course, “That will make you interesting at parties, but how will you eat with it?” Meet Marcus Aurelius. If you aren’t a classics person, Marcus was born to a powerful and rich Roman family, spending the greater part of his life being trained for leadership. He became emperor in 161 A.D., ruling or co-ruling for some 20 years. His legacy from his time as the richest, most powerful man on earth: He’s considered one of the “five good emperors” and one of Rome’s greatest leaders. He was also the philosopher emperor, specifically writing about stoicism, which was very popular among Rome’s wealthy and powerful. Marcus thought there was a natural flow to the universe in which we all operate. One of the keys to a “good life” is to recognize that flow and our place in it, specifically identifying which parts we have control over and which we don’t. For the parts that we can’t control, we should “assent” and accept them, rather than fruitlessly fighting against them. For Marcus, the happy life comes from leading a virtuous life of right actions, which in turn is derived from using logic and reasoning to decide where best to focus our efforts, so we can positively influence matters. This might seem like old school commonsense, yet consider some modern dilemmas: We feel insecure about our worth, so we spend lavishly to impress others—which may or may not work. Parents feel guilty that they don’t spend enough time with their children, so they buy the kids cars and take them on…
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Training the Mind

WITH THE SURGE of urbanization in the 19th century, many folks became concerned by the seeming rise in bad behavior. This behavior could be illegal—such as theft—or legal but undesirable, like alcohol abuse. Nascent social sciences, including sociology and psychology, developed two alternative theories. “Moral Deficit” theorists said people engaged in bad behavior because they were internally “weak.” You might have seen a movie scene where a hysterical person is slapped with the admonition to “get a hold of yourself.” Or you might be familiar with the approaches of The Salvation Army and YMCA, both of which use Christian principles to teach people how to strengthen their mind, body and spirit. On the other side was “Moral Purity,” or the belief that temptation could bring down even the strongest person. These theorists advocated attacking supply rather than demand, most famously by initiating Prohibition. Over a century later, our debates seem all too familiar. For the “war on drugs”—or any other “war on…”—what’s the best approach? Do we address demand through education or, instead, should we attack supply by going after its purveyors? Or do we just conclude that the behavior is innate and not worth resisting? Like many social concepts, these same principles can be applied to microeconomics and even personal finance. Why do we overspend? Are we weak, with an uncontrollable desire for admiration that impels us to buy all the trappings of success? Or are we simply inundated with too many nudges to spend, and can’t resist the siren call of consumerism? Even more confusing, what’s the solution? Perhaps a better approach is that of another early reformer, Jane Addams. As part of the settlement house movement, Addams avoided focusing just on the isolated bad behavior. She advocated looking at the whole person, even the whole society, to see…
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