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Many seniors think we paid for our Social Security benefits based on the FICA taxes we paid. Let’s dispel that myth- we didn’t

"Well, inaction has consequences, does it not? If you don't save, you don't have money to spend. It's called self-reliance. Kind of an American thing."
- Bruce Keller
Read more »

How do you prepare for the long term care cost as retiree?

"I didn't realize (until this happened to my sister-in-law) that you can sometimes get LTC to pay for assisted living even after you have cancelled the policy! This is how it happened - my SIL was a very, very healthy (never smoked, never drank, ideal weight, good amount of exercise) 69yo who had a hemorrhagic stroke while at home alone (never married). Was able to get to a phone and call 911 and then spent most of the next year moving from stroke ICU to normal ICU to hospital to assisted living while she worked hard to recover as much ability as possible. Many years ago (maybe 15 or so), she had purchased a Genworth LTC policy, but after paying about $12,000 in premiums, decided it was costing too much and cancelled. She called Genworth to see if she could get any reimbursement. Genworth investigated her claim and refused. She read the refusal, thought that they had misunderstood (because she now no longer needed assisted living - she had returned to her condo). She refiled the claim, and they paid her the $12,000 in premiums she had paid all those years ago. A very pleasant and unexpected outcome - current LTC policies probably don't have this provision."
- Emilie Babcox
Read more »

Thinking about downsizing? Think seriously

"We tried twice to downsize. Both times we actually upsized because the houses we found were perfect for us at the time, even with the extra space. We're staying put now because I'm afraid of what we'd wind up with next time! ;-))"
- Mike Gaynes
Read more »

TSP G Fund as the only Fixed Income Investment

"This is what we have been doing for several years now. It was suggested to us by Allan Roth, the well known financial advisor. It was his opinion that the G Fund was the only thing necessary for our "safe" assets and that the equity portion of the portfolio will provide the growth."
- HavingFun2
Read more »

Close to Everything I Need

I DON’T HAVE MANY regrets in life. But there is one conversation with my mother that I wish I had never had. It was about moving her into an assisted living facility. She was in her 90s, and I thought it would be best for both of us. My mother would receive better care, and I could take much-needed breaks. She could even keep her house and spend time there when I was with her. It seemed like a middle-of-the-road approach to providing care. I thought it was a win-win situation for both of us. But I couldn't convince my mother to leave the home she had lived in for 42 years. She would ask me questions like, “How far my bed would be from the front door?” I was beginning to understand that she was afraid of moving to an unfamiliar place. It was simply too much to ask of her.  About six weeks later, my mother had a heart attack. She passed away a week afterward in a rehabilitation facility after being discharged from the hospital. Looking back, I sometimes wonder if our discussions about assisted living were harder on her than I realized. It's something I've thought about many times since. After reaching age 75 and coming closer to the possibility of needing more care myself, I now have a better understanding of why my mother wanted to age in place. She valued the familiarity and emotional comfort of her home. She knew exactly how far her bed was from the front door. She maintained relationships with neighbors who would stop by to chat and share a glass of wine. She also knew the people at the stores and restaurants she visited regularly. A few of them even attended her funeral. All of her doctors were nearby. She would often say, "I'm close to everything I need." Recently, when I was experiencing problems with my eyesight, I've felt more vulnerable. One day, while having lunch with my wife, I brought up the topic of how we might receive care in our later years. As soon as I mentioned assisted living, Rachel grew quiet and a sad look came over her face. I've seen that look before. At that moment, I realized I was hearing the same concern I had heard from my mother years earlier. They were thinking about leaving behind a familiar life and moving to a place where everything would be different. My wife and my mother are not alone. About three-quarters of Americans over age 50 say they want to remain in their current homes as they age. I count myself among them. Part of our long-term care planning is an effort to preserve the life we've built here for as long as possible. It's not an easy decision because none of us knows what our future health will look like. Aging in place offers advantages, but it also involves risks. If we need only limited assistance, staying in our home could be significantly less expensive than moving to a senior living community, especially since our mortgage is paid off. We can purchase only the services we need—housekeeping, meal delivery, transportation, or occasional home health care—and adjust that support as circumstances change. At the same time, we retain ownership of our home and any future appreciation in its value. That equity remains available if we eventually need more extensive care. Of course, there is no guarantee that our health will cooperate. Serious illnesses or cognitive decline could create care needs that are difficult or expensive to manage at home. That's one reason some people choose a continuing care retirement community (CCRC), which offers a continuum of care and contracts that can provide insurance-like protection against future long-term care costs. For us, the decision comes down to a tradeoff: Do we value maximum independence and flexibility today, or do we value having a built-in care system already in place for the future? For now, we're taking a hybrid approach. We plan to remain in our home through our 70s and early 80s. We're in reasonably good health, and my eyesight is no longer a major issue. We are planning to invest in accessibility improvements, including a stair lift to our upstairs master bedroom, grab bars in the bathrooms, and brighter lighting. Our house already has a walk-in shower, doorways and hallways wide enough for a walker, and space for a caregiver if one is ever needed. In addition, we’re setting aside a dedicated reserve of 20% of our investment portfolio to help cover future care needs. Most people do not spend years in a nursing home. As a result, we're not trying to fund the most expensive long-term-care scenario imaginable. Instead, we're setting aside enough money to cover the most likely care needs without significantly affecting our lifestyle. If we encounter a more extreme situation, we still have the remainder of our portfolio and the equity in our home available. That’s just basic financial planning: managing risk to a comfortable level instead of spending a fortune to eliminate it completely. We'll reevaluate our situation every few years and remain open to moving to a CCRC or assisted living community if health, mobility, or caregiving needs increase significantly. There may come a day when Rachel and I decide that a CCRC or assisted living community is the right choice. None of us can predict the future, and flexibility has value. But I now understand something I didn't fully appreciate when my mother was alive. A home is more than a place to live. It is a collection of routines, relationships, memories, and comforts that become increasingly important as we grow older. My mother knew that instinctively. She wasn't being stubborn. She was protecting a life she loved and a sense of independence that mattered deeply to her. When she told me she was close to everything she needed, she wasn't talking about stores, restaurants, or doctors. She was talking about belonging. It took me years to understand what she meant. If I had understood it sooner, our conversations about assisted living might have been very different.   Dennis Friedman retired from Boeing Satellite Systems after a 30-year career in manufacturing. Born in Ohio, Dennis is a California transplant with a bachelor’s degree in history and an MBA. A self-described “humble investor,” he likes reading historical novels and about personal finance. Follow Dennis on X @DMFrie and check out his earlier articles
Read more »

What’s in your portfolio ?

"We are invested in various types of REIT as an inflation buffer but because of the taxation issues we put them in our Roth accounts."
- achnk53
Read more »

What Addiction Couldn’t Take: My Sister’s Story

"Thank you Sherry for sharing this and for your willingness to help others through your own experience. One of the things I have learned from writing this article is just how many families have been affected by addiction and how often they carry that burden in silence. I appreciate your explanation of Al-Anon and the reminder that addiction affects not only the person struggling, but also those who love them. Your words about finding peace, setting boundaries, and not losing yourself are powerful. Thank you for taking the time to share this resource and for offering hope to those who may still be walking this difficult road."
- Andrew Clements
Read more »

Leverage

"Thanks for your comment. Learning to listen better to my inner voice has been essential to retirement. As "experts" frequently offer seemingly contradictory guidance."
- Catherine
Read more »

How financially illiterate are Americans?

"Mike, I love to read about success stories like yours. The readers that have been on HD for a while know that I drove a beer truck for 30 years. Like you, I got to where I wanted to be financially.  I didn’t graduate from college, but I did make it through high school. By the clear and articulate way that you express yourself, I’d never guess that you didn’t receive any formal education."
- Dan Smith
Read more »

Not Dead Yet

FOR MY BIRTHDAY this year, my wife gave me a card that declares, “Not Dead Yet.” That might sound morbid, but I laughed. The reason: My wife had misinterpreted something I used to say to colleagues at my final job.

When they saw me at the coffee machine, they’d often ask, “How are you doing, Dave?”

Instead of saying “fine,” I used to say, “I’m still breathing. Count your blessings. Blessing No. 1: I’m still breathing.”

In many cases, I’d get an amen, or colleagues would chuckle, or they’d say something positive. My wife saw it differently.

She always thought it meant I was done with living and getting ready to die, which is the furthest thing from the truth. In fact, I was—and still am—celebrating the here and now, expressing gratitude for still being alive.

My latest birthday is one of my most significant. It’s my required minimum distribution (RMD) birthday, meaning I just turned 73. With this birthday, I’ve achieved the final financial goal I set for myself. I wanted to hold off all withdrawals from my IRA—which I first opened when I was age 27—until I was forced to by the tax rules. To celebrate this milestone, I’ll be giving away my entire RMD as qualified charitable distributions (QCDs) to the charities I’ve selected. To help both me and one of the charities, a portion of my QCD will purchase a charitable gift annuity.

While I consider 73 to be a special birthday, I didn’t want any presents. It isn’t that I don’t like gifts. Rather, I don’t like what my wife buys me—because they’re usually things she thinks I need, not things I want. Often, it’s clothes that my wife would like to see me wear.

But this year was different. I received a ream of printer paper, a T-shirt that says “real cars don't shift themselves,” a bag of Hershey’s dark chocolate kisses, a grabber because my son wants me to help him collect roadside trash, three lottery scratch-off tickets that yielded winnings of $6, and lunch at our favorite Mexican restaurant. In other words, my wife gave me things I needed and liked, and there wasn’t anything I had to return.

Now that I’ve notched my final financial milestone birthday, I’ll be measuring the passage of time in days, not years. Every day I’m alive is a reason to celebrate.

I have heard of people who have weekend-long, or week-long or month-long birthday celebrations. But mine will be a celebration every day for the rest of my life. I’m still breathing. What could be a better reason to celebrate?

Read more »

Risk Adjusted: The Family Ledger 

"W.S, thank you for that; it was a really thoughtful response. For what it's worth, I think you made a good choice. It's funny how a life is full of forks in the road, and yet only a few really shape everything after. Those are the ones that stay lit up in memory, the ones that bring on that quiet "what if." For me, it was being a teenager in the early 80s, right at the dawn of home computing. Nobody knew yet what this thing was going to become. There was no map, no established career path, just a handful of us tinkering in bedrooms with machines that felt like magic. I already had some of my own game software selling at Tandy on consignment, making decent money for a kid. And the strange thing is, I could feel the size of what was coming even then: that this was the very start of something enormous, and I was standing right at the entrance to it. But I chose a different path. Even now, that "what if" still visits me. What would it have been like to ride that wave from the beginning, to grow up alongside an industry that went on to remake the entire world? And then I look at the life I actually built, the one I have, and I feel genuinely blessed. No regrets."
- Mark Crothers
Read more »

Pricing the Future

THE WAY INVESTORS think about the stock market may be entirely wrong. Intuition tells us, and academic research confirms, that a company’s stock price should respond to important news and information. When a company announces a new product, for example, its stock should go up. And when results fall short of expectations, it should decline.  But a new paper titled “The Inefficient Pricing of News” calls this idea into question. The authors found that investors respond much more slowly and inconsistently to market news than previously thought. In some cases, it took a year or more for a stock price to respond.  Why would that be the case? Tony Fadell is often referred to as “the father of the iPod.” For years, he worked side-by-side with Steve Jobs, first developing the iPod, then the iPhone. In a recent interview, Fadell shared details of what the product development process looked like inside Apple, and how the reality on the inside often differed from the way it appeared on the outside. Fadell’s comments can help us understand why stock prices often miss the mark. The nature of competition. Investors, Fadell argued, often have a one-dimensional understanding of companies. As an example, he told the story of the development of the iPhone. When it was first released, many observers dismissed it as an overpriced toy. Unlike the BlackBerry, the dominant mobile device for corporate users at the time, the first iPhone lacked key security features and didn’t have a physical keyboard. As a result, it was perceived as a niche product with narrow appeal. Fadell explained, though, that Apple looked at the market differently. Yes, BlackBerry had a very high market share among business users, but it had only a small share of the overall mobile phone market—just 1% or 2%. Apple was interested in the rest of the market: “What about the other 98% of the people? What would they want?” That was the question Apple was asking internally. Observers on the outside, though, underestimated the iPhone’s potential because they assumed they understood Apple’s competitive objectives. The definition of success. Investors often make another mistake, Fadell said. They use the wrong yardstick in measuring successes and failures. He notes that early versions of both the iPod and the iPhone had significant shortcomings. The first iPod worked only with Apple computers. The first iPhone was underpowered and wasn’t open to outside app developers. The App Store didn’t debut until a year after the iPhone’s release. For all these reasons, early critics continued to underestimate the iPhone’s potential even as it gained market share. But inside Apple, the potential was clear. They knew that all of the core components would get better each year and that cell phone networks would get faster. Fadell, who also invented the Nest thermostat, made this observation: “Everything needs three generations. I’ve never seen anyone get it right the first time.” Wall Street, however, tends to not be that patient, and that can lead to a disconnect between perception and reality in stock prices. Fadell notes that even when a product fails, it can be valuable. Apple learned a lot from the Newton, its first attempt at a mobile device. Similarly, Amazon had a short-lived mobile phone called the Fire. From the outside it was deemed a costly mistake, but Jeff Bezos saw it differently. “You can’t, for one minute, feel bad,” he said. The voice recognition technology Amazon developed for the Fire ultimately turned into Alexa. The bottom line: Wall Street’s obsession with quarterly results can cause investors to use the wrong scorecard, and that’s another reason stock prices can move in the wrong direction. The timeline to profits. Fadell noted that the first iPhone was unprofitable but that this wasn’t a concern. Because sales were increasing, Apple would be able to lower production costs. Together with technology advances, management knew that the product would eventually yield profit. “You make the product, you fix the product, then you fix the business,” Fadell explained. Companies pursuing a new idea are often underestimated because they’re judged prematurely. Consider Amazon. It was unprofitable for almost 10 years after its founding. Why? During that decade, the company was growing quickly, but it reinvested as much as it could into warehouses. The result is that it can now deliver packages to many customers the same day. That may have been Jeff Bezos’s vision from early on, but outside observers couldn’t see the roadmap he had in his desk drawer, and for that reason, Amazon was regularly criticized for its lack of profits. The most notable misjudgment: In 1999, Barron’s magazine ran a cover story with the headline “Amazon.bomb.” How did Barron’s editors get it wrong? They had no idea where the company was headed, and for competitive reasons, Bezos certainly wasn’t going to tip his hand. This pattern repeats frequently, and it’s a key reason why stock prices often end up out of line with a company’s true long-term value. "All overnight success takes about 10 years,” Bezos later commented. Timeline to bankruptcy. Sometimes, Wall Street makes the opposite mistake, failing to see when a company is headed into decline. The most famous example in this category may be Kodak, which was the dominant maker of film for traditional cameras. Remarkably, it was a Kodak engineer who invented the first digital camera all the way back in the 1970s. But recognizing the threat it represented, the company shelved the project. Over the course of the 1980s and 1990s, other companies introduced digital cameras, with the result that, between 1990 and 1997, Kodak’s revenue dropped almost 25%. And yet, throughout that period, its stock kept rising, hitting an all-time high in 1997. Investors just couldn’t appreciate the reality of what was happening. But then, just five years later, Kodak filed for bankruptcy. In general, and on average, stock prices do reflect the value of public companies. But for all the reasons Fadell cites, that relationship is often imperfect. This is a fundamental reason why, in my view, investors are best served by choosing diversified index funds rather than trying to pick individual stocks.   Adam M. Grossman is the founder of Mayport, a fixed-fee wealth management firm. Sign up for Adam's Daily Ideas email, follow him on X @AdamMGrossman and check out his earlier articles.
Read more »

Many seniors think we paid for our Social Security benefits based on the FICA taxes we paid. Let’s dispel that myth- we didn’t

"Well, inaction has consequences, does it not? If you don't save, you don't have money to spend. It's called self-reliance. Kind of an American thing."
- Bruce Keller
Read more »

How do you prepare for the long term care cost as retiree?

"I didn't realize (until this happened to my sister-in-law) that you can sometimes get LTC to pay for assisted living even after you have cancelled the policy! This is how it happened - my SIL was a very, very healthy (never smoked, never drank, ideal weight, good amount of exercise) 69yo who had a hemorrhagic stroke while at home alone (never married). Was able to get to a phone and call 911 and then spent most of the next year moving from stroke ICU to normal ICU to hospital to assisted living while she worked hard to recover as much ability as possible. Many years ago (maybe 15 or so), she had purchased a Genworth LTC policy, but after paying about $12,000 in premiums, decided it was costing too much and cancelled. She called Genworth to see if she could get any reimbursement. Genworth investigated her claim and refused. She read the refusal, thought that they had misunderstood (because she now no longer needed assisted living - she had returned to her condo). She refiled the claim, and they paid her the $12,000 in premiums she had paid all those years ago. A very pleasant and unexpected outcome - current LTC policies probably don't have this provision."
- Emilie Babcox
Read more »

Thinking about downsizing? Think seriously

"We tried twice to downsize. Both times we actually upsized because the houses we found were perfect for us at the time, even with the extra space. We're staying put now because I'm afraid of what we'd wind up with next time! ;-))"
- Mike Gaynes
Read more »

TSP G Fund as the only Fixed Income Investment

"This is what we have been doing for several years now. It was suggested to us by Allan Roth, the well known financial advisor. It was his opinion that the G Fund was the only thing necessary for our "safe" assets and that the equity portion of the portfolio will provide the growth."
- HavingFun2
Read more »

Close to Everything I Need

I DON’T HAVE MANY regrets in life. But there is one conversation with my mother that I wish I had never had. It was about moving her into an assisted living facility. She was in her 90s, and I thought it would be best for both of us. My mother would receive better care, and I could take much-needed breaks. She could even keep her house and spend time there when I was with her. It seemed like a middle-of-the-road approach to providing care. I thought it was a win-win situation for both of us. But I couldn't convince my mother to leave the home she had lived in for 42 years. She would ask me questions like, “How far my bed would be from the front door?” I was beginning to understand that she was afraid of moving to an unfamiliar place. It was simply too much to ask of her.  About six weeks later, my mother had a heart attack. She passed away a week afterward in a rehabilitation facility after being discharged from the hospital. Looking back, I sometimes wonder if our discussions about assisted living were harder on her than I realized. It's something I've thought about many times since. After reaching age 75 and coming closer to the possibility of needing more care myself, I now have a better understanding of why my mother wanted to age in place. She valued the familiarity and emotional comfort of her home. She knew exactly how far her bed was from the front door. She maintained relationships with neighbors who would stop by to chat and share a glass of wine. She also knew the people at the stores and restaurants she visited regularly. A few of them even attended her funeral. All of her doctors were nearby. She would often say, "I'm close to everything I need." Recently, when I was experiencing problems with my eyesight, I've felt more vulnerable. One day, while having lunch with my wife, I brought up the topic of how we might receive care in our later years. As soon as I mentioned assisted living, Rachel grew quiet and a sad look came over her face. I've seen that look before. At that moment, I realized I was hearing the same concern I had heard from my mother years earlier. They were thinking about leaving behind a familiar life and moving to a place where everything would be different. My wife and my mother are not alone. About three-quarters of Americans over age 50 say they want to remain in their current homes as they age. I count myself among them. Part of our long-term care planning is an effort to preserve the life we've built here for as long as possible. It's not an easy decision because none of us knows what our future health will look like. Aging in place offers advantages, but it also involves risks. If we need only limited assistance, staying in our home could be significantly less expensive than moving to a senior living community, especially since our mortgage is paid off. We can purchase only the services we need—housekeeping, meal delivery, transportation, or occasional home health care—and adjust that support as circumstances change. At the same time, we retain ownership of our home and any future appreciation in its value. That equity remains available if we eventually need more extensive care. Of course, there is no guarantee that our health will cooperate. Serious illnesses or cognitive decline could create care needs that are difficult or expensive to manage at home. That's one reason some people choose a continuing care retirement community (CCRC), which offers a continuum of care and contracts that can provide insurance-like protection against future long-term care costs. For us, the decision comes down to a tradeoff: Do we value maximum independence and flexibility today, or do we value having a built-in care system already in place for the future? For now, we're taking a hybrid approach. We plan to remain in our home through our 70s and early 80s. We're in reasonably good health, and my eyesight is no longer a major issue. We are planning to invest in accessibility improvements, including a stair lift to our upstairs master bedroom, grab bars in the bathrooms, and brighter lighting. Our house already has a walk-in shower, doorways and hallways wide enough for a walker, and space for a caregiver if one is ever needed. In addition, we’re setting aside a dedicated reserve of 20% of our investment portfolio to help cover future care needs. Most people do not spend years in a nursing home. As a result, we're not trying to fund the most expensive long-term-care scenario imaginable. Instead, we're setting aside enough money to cover the most likely care needs without significantly affecting our lifestyle. If we encounter a more extreme situation, we still have the remainder of our portfolio and the equity in our home available. That’s just basic financial planning: managing risk to a comfortable level instead of spending a fortune to eliminate it completely. We'll reevaluate our situation every few years and remain open to moving to a CCRC or assisted living community if health, mobility, or caregiving needs increase significantly. There may come a day when Rachel and I decide that a CCRC or assisted living community is the right choice. None of us can predict the future, and flexibility has value. But I now understand something I didn't fully appreciate when my mother was alive. A home is more than a place to live. It is a collection of routines, relationships, memories, and comforts that become increasingly important as we grow older. My mother knew that instinctively. She wasn't being stubborn. She was protecting a life she loved and a sense of independence that mattered deeply to her. When she told me she was close to everything she needed, she wasn't talking about stores, restaurants, or doctors. She was talking about belonging. It took me years to understand what she meant. If I had understood it sooner, our conversations about assisted living might have been very different.   Dennis Friedman retired from Boeing Satellite Systems after a 30-year career in manufacturing. Born in Ohio, Dennis is a California transplant with a bachelor’s degree in history and an MBA. A self-described “humble investor,” he likes reading historical novels and about personal finance. Follow Dennis on X @DMFrie and check out his earlier articles
Read more »

What’s in your portfolio ?

"We are invested in various types of REIT as an inflation buffer but because of the taxation issues we put them in our Roth accounts."
- achnk53
Read more »

What Addiction Couldn’t Take: My Sister’s Story

"Thank you Sherry for sharing this and for your willingness to help others through your own experience. One of the things I have learned from writing this article is just how many families have been affected by addiction and how often they carry that burden in silence. I appreciate your explanation of Al-Anon and the reminder that addiction affects not only the person struggling, but also those who love them. Your words about finding peace, setting boundaries, and not losing yourself are powerful. Thank you for taking the time to share this resource and for offering hope to those who may still be walking this difficult road."
- Andrew Clements
Read more »

Leverage

"Thanks for your comment. Learning to listen better to my inner voice has been essential to retirement. As "experts" frequently offer seemingly contradictory guidance."
- Catherine
Read more »

Pricing the Future

THE WAY INVESTORS think about the stock market may be entirely wrong. Intuition tells us, and academic research confirms, that a company’s stock price should respond to important news and information. When a company announces a new product, for example, its stock should go up. And when results fall short of expectations, it should decline.  But a new paper titled “The Inefficient Pricing of News” calls this idea into question. The authors found that investors respond much more slowly and inconsistently to market news than previously thought. In some cases, it took a year or more for a stock price to respond.  Why would that be the case? Tony Fadell is often referred to as “the father of the iPod.” For years, he worked side-by-side with Steve Jobs, first developing the iPod, then the iPhone. In a recent interview, Fadell shared details of what the product development process looked like inside Apple, and how the reality on the inside often differed from the way it appeared on the outside. Fadell’s comments can help us understand why stock prices often miss the mark. The nature of competition. Investors, Fadell argued, often have a one-dimensional understanding of companies. As an example, he told the story of the development of the iPhone. When it was first released, many observers dismissed it as an overpriced toy. Unlike the BlackBerry, the dominant mobile device for corporate users at the time, the first iPhone lacked key security features and didn’t have a physical keyboard. As a result, it was perceived as a niche product with narrow appeal. Fadell explained, though, that Apple looked at the market differently. Yes, BlackBerry had a very high market share among business users, but it had only a small share of the overall mobile phone market—just 1% or 2%. Apple was interested in the rest of the market: “What about the other 98% of the people? What would they want?” That was the question Apple was asking internally. Observers on the outside, though, underestimated the iPhone’s potential because they assumed they understood Apple’s competitive objectives. The definition of success. Investors often make another mistake, Fadell said. They use the wrong yardstick in measuring successes and failures. He notes that early versions of both the iPod and the iPhone had significant shortcomings. The first iPod worked only with Apple computers. The first iPhone was underpowered and wasn’t open to outside app developers. The App Store didn’t debut until a year after the iPhone’s release. For all these reasons, early critics continued to underestimate the iPhone’s potential even as it gained market share. But inside Apple, the potential was clear. They knew that all of the core components would get better each year and that cell phone networks would get faster. Fadell, who also invented the Nest thermostat, made this observation: “Everything needs three generations. I’ve never seen anyone get it right the first time.” Wall Street, however, tends to not be that patient, and that can lead to a disconnect between perception and reality in stock prices. Fadell notes that even when a product fails, it can be valuable. Apple learned a lot from the Newton, its first attempt at a mobile device. Similarly, Amazon had a short-lived mobile phone called the Fire. From the outside it was deemed a costly mistake, but Jeff Bezos saw it differently. “You can’t, for one minute, feel bad,” he said. The voice recognition technology Amazon developed for the Fire ultimately turned into Alexa. The bottom line: Wall Street’s obsession with quarterly results can cause investors to use the wrong scorecard, and that’s another reason stock prices can move in the wrong direction. The timeline to profits. Fadell noted that the first iPhone was unprofitable but that this wasn’t a concern. Because sales were increasing, Apple would be able to lower production costs. Together with technology advances, management knew that the product would eventually yield profit. “You make the product, you fix the product, then you fix the business,” Fadell explained. Companies pursuing a new idea are often underestimated because they’re judged prematurely. Consider Amazon. It was unprofitable for almost 10 years after its founding. Why? During that decade, the company was growing quickly, but it reinvested as much as it could into warehouses. The result is that it can now deliver packages to many customers the same day. That may have been Jeff Bezos’s vision from early on, but outside observers couldn’t see the roadmap he had in his desk drawer, and for that reason, Amazon was regularly criticized for its lack of profits. The most notable misjudgment: In 1999, Barron’s magazine ran a cover story with the headline “Amazon.bomb.” How did Barron’s editors get it wrong? They had no idea where the company was headed, and for competitive reasons, Bezos certainly wasn’t going to tip his hand. This pattern repeats frequently, and it’s a key reason why stock prices often end up out of line with a company’s true long-term value. "All overnight success takes about 10 years,” Bezos later commented. Timeline to bankruptcy. Sometimes, Wall Street makes the opposite mistake, failing to see when a company is headed into decline. The most famous example in this category may be Kodak, which was the dominant maker of film for traditional cameras. Remarkably, it was a Kodak engineer who invented the first digital camera all the way back in the 1970s. But recognizing the threat it represented, the company shelved the project. Over the course of the 1980s and 1990s, other companies introduced digital cameras, with the result that, between 1990 and 1997, Kodak’s revenue dropped almost 25%. And yet, throughout that period, its stock kept rising, hitting an all-time high in 1997. Investors just couldn’t appreciate the reality of what was happening. But then, just five years later, Kodak filed for bankruptcy. In general, and on average, stock prices do reflect the value of public companies. But for all the reasons Fadell cites, that relationship is often imperfect. This is a fundamental reason why, in my view, investors are best served by choosing diversified index funds rather than trying to pick individual stocks.   Adam M. Grossman is the founder of Mayport, a fixed-fee wealth management firm. Sign up for Adam's Daily Ideas email, follow him on X @AdamMGrossman and check out his earlier articles.
Read more »

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Manifesto

NO. 65: IF WE CAN easily afford to cover a financial loss out of pocket, we shouldn’t pay an insurance company to do so. An auto policy is a great idea—but one with low deductibles isn’t.

think

MONTE CARLO analysis. Suppose you wrote down all annual historical stock market returns on index cards and randomly selected 30 cards—to get a hypothetical 30-year return—and did so 10,000 times. You’d have a sense of the range of possible 30-year returns and their likelihood. To see Monte Carlo analysis in action, try playing with Fi Calc's calculator.

act

RECAST YOUR mortgage. Have you been paying extra principal? If you’d like to lower your monthly payments, look into recasting your mortgage, which will likely involve a processing fee and a onetime extra-principal payment of $5,000 or $10,000. Your loan’s term and interest rate will stay the same, but it’ll be re-amortized to reflect your reduced principal.

Truths

NO. 64: NOBODY should be all stocks or all bonds. If you’re 100% stocks, you can reduce volatility by shifting 10% of your portfolio into bonds—with little impact on returns. The reason: Adding bonds allows you to pick up a rebalancing bonus. Meanwhile, 100% bond investors can boost returns, without a lot of added volatility, by moving maybe 25% to stocks.

Big ideas

Manifesto

NO. 65: IF WE CAN easily afford to cover a financial loss out of pocket, we shouldn’t pay an insurance company to do so. An auto policy is a great idea—but one with low deductibles isn’t.

Spotlight: Estate Plan

Gifting Confusion

I thought the IRS gifting rules were pretty straight forward and I understood them.  Any individual can give $19K (in 2025) to anyone else w neither a gift tax or reporting requirement.  Seems pretty clear.
Then I dug a little deeper online which was maybe a mistake and came up w some issues.
One was the IRS reference to “gift splitting” by spouses where one spouse can use the other spouses gift exemption to gift in excess of the $19K. 

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The predatory nature of T. Rowe Price (TRP) when trying access to my parents assets

Below is a copy of a review I left on trust pilot. It’s hardly any consolation that I was not the only person to experience their deceptive tactics. See link below: (https://www.trustpilot.com/review/troweprice.com)
This review is in response to T.Rowe Price’s (TRP) concerted efforts to prevent me from getting access to my parents assets after their passing. As an executor and trustee I had full and legal rights to these funds. My estate attorney was “quite frankly ASTOUNDED” by their refusal to share information with me in spite of my status of trustee.

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Social Security Survivor Benefits. Connor learns a nuance.

A recent forum post explored the topic of how to financially protect a surviving spouse. Several commenters mentioned they either had, or were planning to, delay the higher earners Social Security (SS) retirement benefit until 70 to assure that the surviving spouse received the maximum benefit. This is the plan my wife and I are employing, delaying my benefit until I reach 70.
We are currently updating our estate documents, and during a discussion my wife asked me what would happen if I died before I turned on my SS benefit.

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Legacy Decisions: What Should the Sandwich Generation Pass on?

I don’t have much choice as a baby boomer. My generation has been predicted to usher in the largest intergenerational wealth transfer in the next decade. In the meantime, we carry the honor and burden of taking care of our frail, elderly parents. People call us “the sandwich generation” – and I’d like to think we’ve made the best sandwich ever.
My parents came from a deeply patriarchal culture in which the parents dictated nearly every aspect of their children’s lives –

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Signing up for pre-planned funeral services: Is it worth it?

The last few days have been hectic, attending a funeral for a friend as well as an information session by a local funeral home.
I learned a lot from the presentation on funeral services. Pre-planned funerals can ease the burden on survivors. They claim it is cost effective by locking in current prices. Services these days can be extensive and cover death even on a cruise ship or a foreign country.  They also offer incentives (discounts,

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Shrink That Estate

I OUTLINED 10 REASONS everybody should have an estate plan in a 2018 article—and what was true then remains true today, especially for those whose assets could be subject to estate taxes.
Under today’s rules, the federal estate tax applies to individuals with assets over $12.9 million. That might sound like a high number. But in 2026, the limit is set to be cut in half. In addition, many states impose their own estate tax,

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Spotlight: Friedman

Not Qualified to Carry This Anymore

I’m turning into my mother more and more every day. Back when I was taking care of her, she’d hand me her credit card whenever we went shopping. She’d say, “I’m not qualified to carry this anymore.” She was afraid she’d lose it. Now I catch myself doing the same thing. When Rachel and I go out, I sometimes give her my wallet to toss in her purse. I’m scared I’ll lose it. Since I've retired, I lost my driver’s license in Paris, left my credit card at a restaurant in South Dakota, and who even knows what happened to my prescription sunglasses. I don’t know if it’s age, distraction, or just bad luck—but at this point, Rachel’s purse is basically my security system. Which is not a great idea, because if we ever lose her purse—especially when we're traveling—we’d both be without credit cards and personal identification. I’ve lost my wallet twice. In the 1970s, I went to a Cleveland Indians game at the old Municipal Stadium in Cleveland. The Indians were terrible back then. They had players most fans had never even heard of. The stadium was huge—it held over 70,000 people—but the team was so bad, it wasn’t unusual for them to draw only about 6,000 fans. At the game I attended, I remember an usher holding a white towel, escorting us to our seats, and wiping them off before we sat down. Because of the low attendance, many of the seats were dirty from lack of use. Six thousand fans could easily get lost in that cavernous stadium. I don’t know how someone managed to find the wallet I left behind, but somehow, they did. A lady mailed it to my home in California with a note that said, “Indian fans watch out for each other.”…
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Two Words

I’VE LATELY BEEN having a hard time sleeping—and I have a pretty good idea why. It has to do with two words that keep bouncing around inside my head. If you let them, those two words will also keep you up at night. They’re powerful because there’s no end to them. You ask, “What are the two terrible words?” The answer: what if. What ifs are about what could happen in the future and, if you let your imagination run wild, it’s usually something bad. I’ve been thinking a lot about my future. I don’t know if it has to do with turning age 70. I don’t think so. I actually feel pretty optimistic about the next decade. I’m looking forward to spending some quality time with my wife once this pandemic is under control. Still, I’ve been thinking a lot about my wife’s future, too. What happens to her if I’m no longer around? Will she have trouble supporting herself financially? Questions like these keep popping up in my head. They shouldn’t, because I believe we have these kinds of things under control. The trust we set up and our well-funded investment portfolio should help her weather any unforeseen financial challenges that come her way. Also, all our important documents and contacts are stored in a centralized location, so they’re easily accessible. If she needs professional advice, we have a relationship with a low-cost financial advisor, tax accountant, attorney and insurance agent. When pondering what ifs, there always seems to be another one. The other day, I started thinking about household emergencies. What if the hot water tank leaks? What if the electric garage door won’t close? How do I prepare my wife for those kinds of hassles? I realize the real problem resides with me. My wife is…
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Little Jack

I SUBSCRIBE TO a number of financial magazines, as well as a daily newspaper. Lately, they've been piling up in my garage unread. I scan the front cover of the magazines and the headlines of the newspaper, but I'm not that interested. I don't care about "Where to Invest Your Money in 2019" or "The Best Stocks for the Long Run." I guess it's because I'm no longer in charge of my investment portfolio. I have a financial advisor, Carl, who has been overseeing my investments for the past six months. And I have been satisfied with the way things have been going. Just between you and me, Carl—who is human—hasn't been selecting my investments. Instead, it's been a computer. I call the computer Little Jack, after the late Jack Bogle, because it picks nothing but index funds. Right now, Little Jack has me in a mix of six index funds that track the total U.S. stock market, total international stock market, total international bond market and three different segments of the U.S bond market—short, intermediate and long-term securities. Overall, my portfolio is 40% in stocks and 60% in bonds. I know for a fact that Little Jack hasn't read those periodicals that are piling up in my garage. If he isn’t bothering, why should I? What I like about Little Jack is that he isn’t human. There is no emotion or prejudice in picking my investments. You can't say the same thing about those magazines and newspapers in my garage, all of which are written by humans, who are quoting other humans, who are supposedly experts. I bet that, over the long run, Little Jack will beat the performance of the picks from those magazines and newspapers. I guess that's another reason those periodicals are piling up in my garage unread.…
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Not My Priority

SOME YEARS AGO, I had a health scare—and it taught me an important lesson about my relationship with money. My primary care physician wanted me to see a hematologist. “Your white blood cells have been trending lower for the last five years,” he opined. “We need to find out what’s causing it.” After a number of tests, the hematologist thought I might have a rare blood disease. He said the test results were inconclusive, but I fit the profile. He wanted to confirm his suspicions by performing a bone marrow biopsy. He went on to say that there was no cure for the disease, but there were drugs that could extend a patient’s life. The doctor’s comments shook me to the core. Suddenly, I faced the possibility that my time on earth might run out far sooner than I expected. I started thinking about the things in my life that are important to me. How do I protect, experience and enjoy them? The following were the first things I did after leaving the doctor’s office that day: I reviewed the beneficiaries on my retirement accounts to make sure the people who are important to me would be taken care of. I reviewed my trust to confirm it reflected my current wishes on how my estate would be distributed to family, friends and charitable organizations. I verified that the powers of attorney for my finances and health care were in order. I wanted someone who could oversee my affairs if I became incapacitated. I checked my passport to make sure it hadn’t expired. I wanted to visit many countries and landmarks that I hadn’t yet had a chance to experience. Looking back, I realized the things that were most important in my life during this stressful time—besides my health—were my family,…
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Wasting Energy

I TRY NOT TO WORRY too much these days. Although I’m retired, it doesn’t mean my life is carefree. There’s always something I could worry about. After all, as we age, we tend to have more health problems to fret about, and just as many money issues. We can also find ourselves alone for the first time in decades without our partner, the stabilizing force in our life. My mother worried a lot after my father passed away. It got so bad she couldn’t sleep at night. She said she couldn’t turn off all the bad thoughts that kept her awake. I think a lot had to do with my mother never sleeping alone during the 41 years that she and my father lived in their house. Without her husband, she no longer felt secure in her own home. After my wife left for six weeks to take care of her mother, I got a glimpse of what my mother must have been feeling. With Rachel gone, I too felt uneasy staying in our home alone, and my parents were together a lot longer than Rachel and I have been. I can only begin to imagine what my mother was going through. Still, I think it was good that I spent some time in the house on my own, so that one day I might not worry so much if I’m the one who’s left behind. Over the years, the one thing I’ve learned about worrying: It’s usually all for nothing. Most of the time, it’s a lot of wasted energy that could have been put to better use. I’d like to believe that, as I’ve grown older, I’ve done a better job of living a worry-free life. At age 72, you’d think I would have experienced enough stuff that…
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Be Prepared

WHEN I WENT TO THE grocery store last week, it was packed with customers stocking up on essentials. Carts were filled with items that people couldn’t possibly consume in any reasonable period of time. It’s a scene that’s been repeated across the country. A friend told me: “When people panic, they want things right away. When people see other people panic, they panic, too.” Like the coronavirus, fear is highly contagious. I’m not panicking, and yet there are reasons I should feel unease: Like many other Americans, I have money in the stock market. I don’t have a monthly pension, so I’m dependent primarily on my investment portfolio to fund my retirement. I’m trying to sell my condo. My real estate agent told me we should lower the asking price by $20,000. The feedback I’m getting from my agent is that the coronavirus and the stock market decline are instilling fear in prospective buyers. I’m about to remodel my new home. Every room in the house will be affected. This will probably be one of the biggest expenses during my retirement, and yet the project is starting just as global uncertainty is skyrocketing. Why aren’t I more fearful? To be sure, there isn’t yet a vaccine to stop the coronavirus from spreading. But there are things we can control in our financial lives that can ease our sense of fear. Indeed, there are three reasons I’m not rattled by what’s happening around me. First, I’ve saved for a lifetime. Without knowing that today’s pandemic would happen, I’ve been planning for this crisis since I graduated college. As a young adult, I got a feel for what it’s like to live paycheck to paycheck—and I didn’t like it. I made up mind that I wasn’t going to save for my dream…
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