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If you’re overly bullish on an investment today, you’ll probably feel sheepish tomorrow.

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Gold and Diamonds

"Mark, Your writing style sparkles like diamonds ;). Seriously… another well-written, entertaining article."
- Andy Morrison
Read more »

Can one “core” total bond ETF replace the complexity of your bond holdings?

"I would worry about interest rate risk with the long duration of your bond funds. Personally I have been using individual treasuries (6 mo -1yr terms). If rates of intermediate treasuries increase significantly I would consider extending maturities with T bond ladder. No state tax worries either"
- Charles Moser
Read more »

FIXING SOCIAL SECURITY IS NOT THAT HARD, HERE’S HOW

"Well, in this case not taxing is the problem. There is no problem automatically increasing Medicare premiums to maintain 25% Part B cost sharing. This should be no different."
- R Quinn
Read more »

Beyond Bank Accounts

I OPENED MY FIRST bank account in the US at a local credit union (CU) close to my workplace. The CU had several convenient offers for employees of our company. With minimal effort, I opened checking and savings accounts, got free checkbooks and a credit card despite having no credit history in the US.

I was so pleased with the convenience that I handled all my banking needs through this CU for many years. That included direct deposit of my salary, payments and withdrawals, a car loan, and certificates of deposit (CDs) as my savings grew. I still maintain my checking account here and occasionally enjoy special favors as a longtime loyal customer.

Eventually, I realized that I earned very little interest from the bank deposits. I shopped around, found other banks with better rates, opened several accounts here and there, and moved my money around.

I felt good about being proactive and getting a better return on my cash reserve. But that feeling was short-lived as I started learning more about personal finance and investments. Tired of chasing yields in bank accounts, I eventually embraced US Treasurys (debt issued and backed by the US Government) as my alternative to savings accounts and CDs.

For those unfamiliar with US Treasurys, think of them as CDs with maturities ranging from four weeks to 30 years. They're widely used as a "safe investment" by individual, institutional and even sovereign investors around the world.

There are some key differences, though. Bank deposits are insured only up to $250,000. US Treasurys, on the other hand, are backed by the full faith and credit of the US Government. Therefore, there is virtually no default risk regardless of the investment amount.

Treasury interest rates, both short-term and long-term, are heavily influenced by monetary policy actions of the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Treasury interest rates directly affect many interest rates we encounter in everyday life: bank accounts, CDs, mortgage, car loans, personal and business loans, and so on.

Treasury interest rates are often higher than comparable bank products. Why? Because the intermediary financial institutions take their cut for operational costs and profits. Result? Suboptimal, or sometimes almost non-existent, interest on bank deposits.

But wait. What if I need my money back?

With bank deposits, I can walk in and withdraw cash from my account. If my money is locked in a CD, I may have to pay a penalty for early withdrawal, but I can still access it fairly quickly. What happens if I'm holding Treasurys? Do I need to wait until maturity?

That leads us to another important aspect of US Treasurys: their extremely high liquidity.

I can certainly buy newly issued Treasurys and wait until maturity, but I don't have to wait for these events. Investors around the world buy and sell Treasurys in the open market every day, making them one of the most liquid investments in existence.

Their liquidity, safety and meaningful return make Treasurys a compelling alternative for both short- and long-term cash reserves.

Sounds interesting? That's exactly how I felt after doing my own research. All I needed to figure out was the best way to invest in them.

Instead of buying Treasurys directly from the US Treasury, I use my brokerage accounts and buy and sell individual Treasurys or Treasury exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the open market, just like stocks or funds. (I used to participate in Treasury auctions through the brokerage account to buy new issues and set my holdings to auto-roll upon maturity, but I eventually stopped doing that to keep things simple.)

For annual expenses and short-term cash needs, I like short-term, highly liquid, Treasury ETFs with a practically negligible expense ratio.

For money expected in three to four years, I favor short- and intermediate-term Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) ETFs. TIPS have a lower interest rate compared to equivalent regular Treasurys, but their principal is adjusted with inflation, helping mitigate the risk of unexpected inflation.

For cash reserves further into the future, five years or more, my preference is a ladder of individual TIPS bonds, each maturing in a specific future year. Bond trading is slightly more involved than ETFs or stocks, so target-maturity TIPS ETFs can also be a reasonable alternative despite their slightly higher management fees.

Is there a catch compared to keeping money in conventional bank accounts?

I can't think of any, but there are two noticeable differences worth understanding.

First, unlike money sitting in bank accounts, Treasury investments fluctuate in value because they constantly change hands in open markets. For short-term Treasurys, the fluctuations are usually tiny. For intermediate- and long-term Treasurys, the swing can be more noticeable, especially when there's a major change in the interest rate expectation. Thankfully, these fluctuations are usually modest, and over time Treasurys often come out ahead compared to bank deposits.

The second difference deserves a bit more attention.

With a bank account, you can get hold of your money almost immediately. Treasury investments, however, may take a couple of business days to turn into spendable cash. You need to sell the ETF or bond during market hours. Once the transaction settles, usually the next business day, the proceeds can then be transferred out to the checking account for spending. In some cases, you may be able to carry on your spending activities directly from the brokerage account.

Over time, I shifted most of my liquid savings to Treasurys because of the improved result. Yet I still see many people leaving large cash balances in bank products or chasing yields from one bank to another.

I suspect the main reason is simple: lack of familiarity with US Treasurys.

  Sanjib Saha retired early from software engineering to dedicate more time to family and friends, pursue personal development and assist others as a money wellness mentor. Self-taught in investments, he passed the Series 65 licensing exam as a non-industry candidate. Sanjib is the president and cofounder of Dollar Mentor, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization offering free investment and financial education. Follow his nonprofit on LinkedIn, and check out Sanjib’s earlier articles.
Read more »

What Remains: Money and Me

"Thank you Konrad. What always impressed me was that he never measured success solely in financial terms. He cared deeply about helping people live better lives, and he did so with remarkable kindness and decency. Reading comments like yours reminds me that his influence continues far beyond the articles and books he left behind. For that, I am very grateful."
- Andrew Clements
Read more »

…..taxes and you

"Yes, those income taxes, especially for the retirees strike me as crazy low."
- Dan Smith
Read more »

What’s in your portfolio ?

"Mark, thanks, I really do appreciate your opinion."
- Dan Smith
Read more »

Defining Enough

"Excellent article. I found a way to answer that question by watching my monthy and annual "flow" and adjusting as necessary. I am lucky enough to have some fairly large RMDs now, and my budget leaves me with something extra at the end of each month. I am finding that I have a new question. It is: "What can I now afford to give to the institutions that gave me the perspectives, values, education and skills I needed to succeed?" I am grateful, and the need to show that gratitude tugs at me. And I am not just thinking of my college and law school, but older and smaller entities, like my Catholic grammar and high school, local public library, church, not-for-profit community organizations and the like. I'll never be able to thank the individuals I would like to honor, since they are mostly all gone. But these formative entities soldier on with new students, participants and members like me, and I think they deserve a share of what I've earned."
- Martin McCue
Read more »

Celebrating the Win

"Hung, Sounds like the American dream is still alive. Good for you."
- DavidHLancaster
Read more »

Time to share our financial info with children?

"I can only speak for my own unique experience, but I totally disagree with those who want to keep their children in the dark. I was a singleton in a hard-working but very poor family in my first years. A formative experience was seeing an old truck repossessed, and the failure of a small family business. My parents never hid any of this reality from me, even at age 4 or 5. Life was tough, we would be frugal, but we would make it. Gradually my parents did climb out of their hole, and then each received modest inheritances, mostly in the form of stocks and some bonds. They had learned from their parents frugality, patience, faith, and hope. From the beginning, I was invited to review with them their investments, and understand their rationale for what actions they took, good or bad in retrospect. Because they made few expensive mistakes, and quickly understood that fees and costs matter, they got rich slowly. Meanwhile, I was absorbing their lessons. They gave me a few thousand to invest, which I did invest after considerable study. I learned more from my mistakes than my successes, but it was a cheap education. My parents gradually needed more and more care because of emphysema, COPD, and heart disease, and I arranged my life to be able to help, at the drop of a hat. I was the junior partner in the family firm, and I damn sure was going to do whatever was necessary. Ultimately, of course, they both died, and they left me a modest inheritance but far more valuable a philosophy of money and investing--Jonathan before Jonathan--and I have thrived ever since. Because they had shared and explained everything from the earliest days, I learned about thrift, the amazing and frightening power of compounding, and how to maintain a calmness of mind, whatever the market did in the short term. When my father died, I felt fully competent to deal with what he left me, and the results suggest I was right. I am forever grateful for the trust and confidence my parents put in me, from young childhood, and I believe I repaid that well over their lifetimes. My message: be frank with you children. In my family it was literally unthinkable that my mother or father would be in the dark about family finances, and naturally I gradually became the junior partner, so to speak, in the family firm."
- afwAZ
Read more »

The Market’s Unpredictability

EARLIER THIS SPRING, Emil Verner, an economist at MIT, made an observation: The stock market, he said, seemed to be exhibiting “excess tranquility.” Despite an ongoing war, inflation and other negative headlines, investors seemed surprisingly unfazed. The market was on track for its fourth year in a row of positive returns. Through May, it had gained 11%. But no sooner did Verner make this observation that the market did begin to wobble. Last Friday, the Nasdaq index dropped more than 4%, and several individual stocks sank more than 10%. How can we make sense of this—that, despite the headlines, the market was so resilient for so many months, but then reversed course so suddenly? Looking at this question can help us better understand the nature of the stock market and why its movements often seem so illogical. We can start by looking at the period prior to last Friday’s decline. Despite the ongoing war and resulting inflation, the market had risen steadily throughout April and May. Why? Three factors likely contributed. First, and probably most importantly: While the war with Iran caused gasoline prices to jump, the impact on the overall economy has been more muted than most people expected. Despite the negative impact on commodity prices and interest rates, corporate America has been doing well. Among companies that reported earnings in the first quarter of this year, 85% beat expectations. For reference, over the past 10 years, approximately 76% of companies typically beat estimates. So corporate earnings are growing, and they’re growing even faster than expected. Another factor that might have contributed to the market tranquility: More investors are participating in workplace retirement plans like 401(k)s. Because these plans make regular investments via payroll deductions, they serve as a sort of thumb on the scale, constantly buying, whether the market is up or it’s down. This has been a steady, multi-year trend. The third factor contributing to market tranquility: artificial intelligence. Yes, there are concerns about it, but so far, these seem mostly theoretical. Most notably, there’s been the worry that AI systems would replace jobs and cause widespread unemployment. Last year, Sam Altman, the chief executive of OpenAI, warned that “a lot of jobs will go away.” At least one company blamed AI in initiating a round of layoffs, reinforcing Altman’s warning. More recently, though, Altman has backtracked. In an interview in May, he acknowledged that he was “pretty wrong.” “I’m delighted to be wrong about this,” he said. “I thought there would have been more impact on entry-level white-collar jobs being eliminated by now than ​has actually happened.” The data seems in line with Altman’s updated view. A year or two ago, it was easier to dismiss the early versions of ChatGPT for their tendency to fabricate information, but sentiment has shifted. Instead of putting white-collar workers out of jobs, AI seems instead to be helping them be more productive. Lawyers use it to help with research, programmers use it to write code, marketers use it to create websites and finance people use it to build spreadsheets. The list goes on, and because of all that, I suspect, investors have a generally optimistic outlook on the economy. Many people view AI as being in the early innings, with far greater productivity gains in front of us. But then came last Friday, when the market began to sputter. Why the sudden shift? The proximate cause was a strong employment report released on Friday morning. The economy added 172,000 jobs in May, more than double what economists had expected. And the numbers for March and April were both revised upward. This was all good news. The problem for the stock market, though, is that investors tend to think a few steps ahead, and that can turn good news into bad news. The worry in this case is that a strong employment picture will result in inflationary pressures, because more workers will have more money to spend. Taken together with the already elevated inflation resulting from oil prices, the fear is that the Federal Reserve might be forced to raise interest rates this year, after dropping them several times last year. Reflecting this worry, interest rates rose last Friday to 16-month highs. And because stocks tend to fall when rates rise, stocks dropped. And thus, with just one press release, market sentiment soured. Benjamin Graham famously stated: “In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.” From day to day, in other words, stock prices tend to be driven by sentiment, stories and emotion. But over the longer term, logic generally prevails, and stock prices will more rationally reflect companies’ profit levels.  I agree with Graham’s description of the market. What I would add, though, is that the stock market is also like a pinball machine. It isn’t so much that investors are irrational. Instead, the reality is that there’s simply too much news out there for even the most reasonable person to process at any given time. So people respond to whatever happens to catch their attention or whatever they see as most important. That differs from individual to individual and can also change from day to day. The result is the seemingly erratic ups and downs that we’ve being seeing recently, and that we see so often. This is another reason why I think the best approach for investors is to never react too strongly to the day’s news and instead to take the long view. History has shown that this is when Graham’s weighing machine should ultimately carry the day. Adam M. Grossman is the founder of Mayport, a fixed-fee wealth management firm. Sign up for Adam's Daily Ideas email, follow him on X @AdamMGrossman and check out his earlier articles.
Read more »

Gold and Diamonds

"Mark, Your writing style sparkles like diamonds ;). Seriously… another well-written, entertaining article."
- Andy Morrison
Read more »

Can one “core” total bond ETF replace the complexity of your bond holdings?

"I would worry about interest rate risk with the long duration of your bond funds. Personally I have been using individual treasuries (6 mo -1yr terms). If rates of intermediate treasuries increase significantly I would consider extending maturities with T bond ladder. No state tax worries either"
- Charles Moser
Read more »

FIXING SOCIAL SECURITY IS NOT THAT HARD, HERE’S HOW

"Well, in this case not taxing is the problem. There is no problem automatically increasing Medicare premiums to maintain 25% Part B cost sharing. This should be no different."
- R Quinn
Read more »

Beyond Bank Accounts

I OPENED MY FIRST bank account in the US at a local credit union (CU) close to my workplace. The CU had several convenient offers for employees of our company. With minimal effort, I opened checking and savings accounts, got free checkbooks and a credit card despite having no credit history in the US.

I was so pleased with the convenience that I handled all my banking needs through this CU for many years. That included direct deposit of my salary, payments and withdrawals, a car loan, and certificates of deposit (CDs) as my savings grew. I still maintain my checking account here and occasionally enjoy special favors as a longtime loyal customer.

Eventually, I realized that I earned very little interest from the bank deposits. I shopped around, found other banks with better rates, opened several accounts here and there, and moved my money around.

I felt good about being proactive and getting a better return on my cash reserve. But that feeling was short-lived as I started learning more about personal finance and investments. Tired of chasing yields in bank accounts, I eventually embraced US Treasurys (debt issued and backed by the US Government) as my alternative to savings accounts and CDs.

For those unfamiliar with US Treasurys, think of them as CDs with maturities ranging from four weeks to 30 years. They're widely used as a "safe investment" by individual, institutional and even sovereign investors around the world.

There are some key differences, though. Bank deposits are insured only up to $250,000. US Treasurys, on the other hand, are backed by the full faith and credit of the US Government. Therefore, there is virtually no default risk regardless of the investment amount.

Treasury interest rates, both short-term and long-term, are heavily influenced by monetary policy actions of the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Treasury interest rates directly affect many interest rates we encounter in everyday life: bank accounts, CDs, mortgage, car loans, personal and business loans, and so on.

Treasury interest rates are often higher than comparable bank products. Why? Because the intermediary financial institutions take their cut for operational costs and profits. Result? Suboptimal, or sometimes almost non-existent, interest on bank deposits.

But wait. What if I need my money back?

With bank deposits, I can walk in and withdraw cash from my account. If my money is locked in a CD, I may have to pay a penalty for early withdrawal, but I can still access it fairly quickly. What happens if I'm holding Treasurys? Do I need to wait until maturity?

That leads us to another important aspect of US Treasurys: their extremely high liquidity.

I can certainly buy newly issued Treasurys and wait until maturity, but I don't have to wait for these events. Investors around the world buy and sell Treasurys in the open market every day, making them one of the most liquid investments in existence.

Their liquidity, safety and meaningful return make Treasurys a compelling alternative for both short- and long-term cash reserves.

Sounds interesting? That's exactly how I felt after doing my own research. All I needed to figure out was the best way to invest in them.

Instead of buying Treasurys directly from the US Treasury, I use my brokerage accounts and buy and sell individual Treasurys or Treasury exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the open market, just like stocks or funds. (I used to participate in Treasury auctions through the brokerage account to buy new issues and set my holdings to auto-roll upon maturity, but I eventually stopped doing that to keep things simple.)

For annual expenses and short-term cash needs, I like short-term, highly liquid, Treasury ETFs with a practically negligible expense ratio.

For money expected in three to four years, I favor short- and intermediate-term Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) ETFs. TIPS have a lower interest rate compared to equivalent regular Treasurys, but their principal is adjusted with inflation, helping mitigate the risk of unexpected inflation.

For cash reserves further into the future, five years or more, my preference is a ladder of individual TIPS bonds, each maturing in a specific future year. Bond trading is slightly more involved than ETFs or stocks, so target-maturity TIPS ETFs can also be a reasonable alternative despite their slightly higher management fees.

Is there a catch compared to keeping money in conventional bank accounts?

I can't think of any, but there are two noticeable differences worth understanding.

First, unlike money sitting in bank accounts, Treasury investments fluctuate in value because they constantly change hands in open markets. For short-term Treasurys, the fluctuations are usually tiny. For intermediate- and long-term Treasurys, the swing can be more noticeable, especially when there's a major change in the interest rate expectation. Thankfully, these fluctuations are usually modest, and over time Treasurys often come out ahead compared to bank deposits.

The second difference deserves a bit more attention.

With a bank account, you can get hold of your money almost immediately. Treasury investments, however, may take a couple of business days to turn into spendable cash. You need to sell the ETF or bond during market hours. Once the transaction settles, usually the next business day, the proceeds can then be transferred out to the checking account for spending. In some cases, you may be able to carry on your spending activities directly from the brokerage account.

Over time, I shifted most of my liquid savings to Treasurys because of the improved result. Yet I still see many people leaving large cash balances in bank products or chasing yields from one bank to another.

I suspect the main reason is simple: lack of familiarity with US Treasurys.

  Sanjib Saha retired early from software engineering to dedicate more time to family and friends, pursue personal development and assist others as a money wellness mentor. Self-taught in investments, he passed the Series 65 licensing exam as a non-industry candidate. Sanjib is the president and cofounder of Dollar Mentor, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization offering free investment and financial education. Follow his nonprofit on LinkedIn, and check out Sanjib’s earlier articles.
Read more »

What Remains: Money and Me

"Thank you Konrad. What always impressed me was that he never measured success solely in financial terms. He cared deeply about helping people live better lives, and he did so with remarkable kindness and decency. Reading comments like yours reminds me that his influence continues far beyond the articles and books he left behind. For that, I am very grateful."
- Andrew Clements
Read more »

…..taxes and you

"Yes, those income taxes, especially for the retirees strike me as crazy low."
- Dan Smith
Read more »

What’s in your portfolio ?

"Mark, thanks, I really do appreciate your opinion."
- Dan Smith
Read more »

The Market’s Unpredictability

EARLIER THIS SPRING, Emil Verner, an economist at MIT, made an observation: The stock market, he said, seemed to be exhibiting “excess tranquility.” Despite an ongoing war, inflation and other negative headlines, investors seemed surprisingly unfazed. The market was on track for its fourth year in a row of positive returns. Through May, it had gained 11%. But no sooner did Verner make this observation that the market did begin to wobble. Last Friday, the Nasdaq index dropped more than 4%, and several individual stocks sank more than 10%. How can we make sense of this—that, despite the headlines, the market was so resilient for so many months, but then reversed course so suddenly? Looking at this question can help us better understand the nature of the stock market and why its movements often seem so illogical. We can start by looking at the period prior to last Friday’s decline. Despite the ongoing war and resulting inflation, the market had risen steadily throughout April and May. Why? Three factors likely contributed. First, and probably most importantly: While the war with Iran caused gasoline prices to jump, the impact on the overall economy has been more muted than most people expected. Despite the negative impact on commodity prices and interest rates, corporate America has been doing well. Among companies that reported earnings in the first quarter of this year, 85% beat expectations. For reference, over the past 10 years, approximately 76% of companies typically beat estimates. So corporate earnings are growing, and they’re growing even faster than expected. Another factor that might have contributed to the market tranquility: More investors are participating in workplace retirement plans like 401(k)s. Because these plans make regular investments via payroll deductions, they serve as a sort of thumb on the scale, constantly buying, whether the market is up or it’s down. This has been a steady, multi-year trend. The third factor contributing to market tranquility: artificial intelligence. Yes, there are concerns about it, but so far, these seem mostly theoretical. Most notably, there’s been the worry that AI systems would replace jobs and cause widespread unemployment. Last year, Sam Altman, the chief executive of OpenAI, warned that “a lot of jobs will go away.” At least one company blamed AI in initiating a round of layoffs, reinforcing Altman’s warning. More recently, though, Altman has backtracked. In an interview in May, he acknowledged that he was “pretty wrong.” “I’m delighted to be wrong about this,” he said. “I thought there would have been more impact on entry-level white-collar jobs being eliminated by now than ​has actually happened.” The data seems in line with Altman’s updated view. A year or two ago, it was easier to dismiss the early versions of ChatGPT for their tendency to fabricate information, but sentiment has shifted. Instead of putting white-collar workers out of jobs, AI seems instead to be helping them be more productive. Lawyers use it to help with research, programmers use it to write code, marketers use it to create websites and finance people use it to build spreadsheets. The list goes on, and because of all that, I suspect, investors have a generally optimistic outlook on the economy. Many people view AI as being in the early innings, with far greater productivity gains in front of us. But then came last Friday, when the market began to sputter. Why the sudden shift? The proximate cause was a strong employment report released on Friday morning. The economy added 172,000 jobs in May, more than double what economists had expected. And the numbers for March and April were both revised upward. This was all good news. The problem for the stock market, though, is that investors tend to think a few steps ahead, and that can turn good news into bad news. The worry in this case is that a strong employment picture will result in inflationary pressures, because more workers will have more money to spend. Taken together with the already elevated inflation resulting from oil prices, the fear is that the Federal Reserve might be forced to raise interest rates this year, after dropping them several times last year. Reflecting this worry, interest rates rose last Friday to 16-month highs. And because stocks tend to fall when rates rise, stocks dropped. And thus, with just one press release, market sentiment soured. Benjamin Graham famously stated: “In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.” From day to day, in other words, stock prices tend to be driven by sentiment, stories and emotion. But over the longer term, logic generally prevails, and stock prices will more rationally reflect companies’ profit levels.  I agree with Graham’s description of the market. What I would add, though, is that the stock market is also like a pinball machine. It isn’t so much that investors are irrational. Instead, the reality is that there’s simply too much news out there for even the most reasonable person to process at any given time. So people respond to whatever happens to catch their attention or whatever they see as most important. That differs from individual to individual and can also change from day to day. The result is the seemingly erratic ups and downs that we’ve being seeing recently, and that we see so often. This is another reason why I think the best approach for investors is to never react too strongly to the day’s news and instead to take the long view. History has shown that this is when Graham’s weighing machine should ultimately carry the day. Adam M. Grossman is the founder of Mayport, a fixed-fee wealth management firm. Sign up for Adam's Daily Ideas email, follow him on X @AdamMGrossman and check out his earlier articles.
Read more »

Free Newsletter

Get Educated

Manifesto

NO. 62: IF WE’LL SPEND money in the next few years, cash is the only prudent choice—but we shouldn’t hold more than necessary. Why not? After taxes and inflation, we’re likely losing money.

think

FLOW. We imagine what we want most is time to relax. But in truth, we get great satisfaction from work—provided it’s work we find challenging and interesting, and feel we’re good at. All this is captured by psychology professor Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi’s notion of flow. During moments of flow, we can become completely absorbed and lose all sense of time.

act

DECIDE WHICH DEBTS to pay off first. Looking to repay your loans more quickly than required? You’ll usually want to focus on ridding yourself of your highest-interest debt. But suppose you have a car loan that’s almost paid off. Even if the rate is low, you might pay extra toward that loan—because eliminating it will immediately improve your monthly cash flow.

Truths

NO. 142: MUCH OF OUR financial success can be explained by luck—the family we're born into, the value that today’s economy puts on our talents, whether our bosses take a shine to us, whether the financial markets treat us well. The upshot: No matter how much success we’ve enjoyed, we should resist growing overconfident or being dismissive of others.

Savings Initiative

Manifesto

NO. 62: IF WE’LL SPEND money in the next few years, cash is the only prudent choice—but we shouldn’t hold more than necessary. Why not? After taxes and inflation, we’re likely losing money.

Spotlight: Health

Deeply Rooted

JUNE MARKS THREE years since my mum passed from complications of vascular dementia. It was a tough couple of years, watching her mind slowly fail and her world shrink a little more with each passing month. Anyone who has cared for a loved one in the late stages of dementia will know how difficult and disjointed even the simplest conversation becomes. The loops, the confusion, the frustration of trying to redirect someone you love from a thought they can no longer find their way out of.

Read more »

Medicare Signup Goes Awry

Some people’s recent experience with the Social Security and Medicare sign-up process has been smooth. Mine for Medicare? Not so much.
I turned 65 in November 2024 and wanted Medicare Part B to start January 1, 2025. Medicare.gov says that if you apply in the month after your birthday, Part B will start the following month. Perfect! I filed for Medicare on the Social Security site on December 2nd and even included a note that I wanted Part B coverage to start January 1.

Read more »

Ironman Training Update

This past weekend I did the 200k Ride To Conquer Cancer.
On Saturday we rode from Toronto to Hamilton and on Sunday from Hamilton to Niagara Falls.
I knew it was going to be hard because I had only done one 100k training ride so far this year because of the bad weather we were having.
Also I suffer from bad allergies as well as exercise induced asthma and the day before it looked like it was snowing here due to all the white fluff in the air never mind the smoke from the forest fires out west.

Read more »

Paradox of choice. What to do, what to do?

I used to be a big fan of choice when it came to employee benefit plans including life insurance, health insurance and, of courses 401k investment options. 
When working I crafted a plan with lots of choices. Employees said they wanted choice, it was all the rage at the time. Our unions were not so thrilled, but went along. 
The unions were right and I was wrong. 
People may say they want choice, but when faced with it for very important decisions,

Read more »

Seeking Input on Medicare Supplement Carriers

After just being hit with an almost 30% premium increase from Mutual of Omaha (MOO), I’m shopping around for a new Medicare Supplement carrier.
I actually like MOO for their generally good customer service, user friendly website, and fast claims processing. Twice in past years, I’ve been able to stay with MOO but avoid a price hike by switching to one of their sister companies, which I wrote about here.
It seems that option is no longer available,

Read more »

Frugal Fitness

AS A PHYSICAL therapist, I’ve spent a large slice of each work day teaching and encouraging patients as they exercise their way to better health. Along with other elements of treatment, each patient pays for a custom exercise program tailored for their specific problem.
These are folks looking for a way past the debilitating effects of injury or disease. Even so, many of them find it hard to follow my plea to “do your exercises”.

Read more »

Spotlight: Ehart

Rising Risk

IT’S BUYER BEWARE for bond fund investors. Three big risks have snuck up on today’s fund shareholders, which—taken together—mean higher volatility and lower returns. I discussed these pitfalls with Ben Johnson, director of global exchange-traded fund research at Morningstar, the Chicago investment research firm. “In recent years, the market’s standards have loosened significantly and durations have lengthened,” Johnson told me. “People are generally willing to lend money to less creditworthy borrowers for longer terms…. That likely spells more risk and less return for the foreseeable future.”  Let’s count the ways that today’s market is less favorable for bond fund investors: Higher interest rate risk. Total bond market index funds—the bread-and-butter investment grade option for many investors, as well as a key building block for some balanced, asset allocation and target-date funds—are a lot more vulnerable to rising rates than they used to be. Johnson noted that the duration of Vanguard Total Bond Market Index ETF has jumped to 6.6 years from almost 4.8 years in 2007. Duration is a measure of interest rate risk. That means investors stand to lose nearly 7% for every one percentage point increase in interest rates, versus less than 5% just 14 years ago. That’s 40% greater risk. That said, if interest rates fell, the rewards today would also be greater. More credit risk. Total bond market funds—which typically track the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index—carry more credit risk in their corporate bond holdings than they used to. In other words, there’s a greater chance that some of the bonds within the index will default. Slimmer rewards. The extra yield that these riskier-than-usual investment grade corporate bonds are paying over Treasury bonds is near record lows. “You’re getting paid incrementally less to take on incrementally more risk, which isn’t all that enticing a proposition,”…
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Averting My Gaze

“TAKE FIVE” IS JAZZ great Dave Brubeck’s most popular and enduring number—but it’s also a darn good piece of decision-making advice. A few weeks ago, my son was struggling with exams and papers ahead of his graduation from the University of Pennsylvania. Though he would go on to graduate magna cum laude, he was in a dark place. I said, “Imagine a time two weeks from now when you’re back home and can relax, recharge and rethink.”  That’s when it hit me, and not for the first time: My advice was best directed at me. I needed a break from the stock market drama of the past three months. As of this writing, I’ve gone two weeks without checking my portfolio or even looking at where the market closed. Along the way, here are five things I’ve learned: 1. In obsessing over the market, my main motivations had been ego, greed, anxiety and a hunger for instant gratification. It’s not like I’m ever going to make a name for myself as an investor. Yes, I have an obligation to invest shrewdly, but that doesn’t mean I should vainly devote my life to it. Shortly before taking my sabbatical, I (for the umpteenth time) toted up the value added from all my efforts to buy the March dip and then later reposition my portfolio, taking profits in some cases. All that stress—Is this the bottom? Is it a dead-cat bounce?—and countless hours of analyzing investment options had added less than one percentage point to my portfolio’s value. Don’t want to tie your identity to your investment results? Trust me, it’s a lot easier to separate the two when you stop counting your money every day.  2. If you let it, the market will drive you nuts. Investing will fill all the time you’re willing to…
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Drive Buy

THOSE OF US WHO aspire to be shrewd investors try to buy when opportunities present themselves, while avoiding “crowded” trades. I broke that last rule when I recently bought a second car. Yes, prices are skyrocketing as a result of supply-chain bottlenecks and strong consumer demand. But I had a good reason: My son’s entering the fulltime workforce—and he’s taking over use of my current car. It was the worst time to put myself at the mercy of car dealers. I knew I’d overpay by thousands of dollars. Yet, given the circumstances, I think I did pretty well. First, I had saved a lot. I socked away what I could every month over a period of years for an eventual car purchase. My daily drive is a 2014 Volkswagen Jetta, so I knew I’d need to replace it eventually. I had also saved 2020’s second stimulus check of $1,400. In addition, I’d benefited from a cash gift Mom made to all her children a couple of years ago. I parked that in my online savings account. Result? I was able to plunk down $18,719 at the dealership, with no talk about financing and what rate I’d get. Almost any rate would have been more than I was willing to pay, given today’s low savings yields. I estimate—thanks to a handy online car-loan calculator—that I saved about $1,000 in interest, assuming a three-year loan in the 3% range. While my emergency savings are depleted, I feel my job is secure now after the initial pandemic scare. I hope to bank the $400 or $500 a month I would otherwise have paid on the car loan. The second reason I did well: I had good advice. Ben is a friend and colleague at work, and a real car-buying expert. To identify a…
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Limiting Risk of Rising Rates

An exercise I find useful — certainly more useful than trying to predict the future — is to ask myself, what are the main risks to my portfolio? Sometimes we have more riding on one potential outcome, or at risk from another, than we realize. The list of major risks is long, but higher-than-expected inflation and interest rates are pretty high up. Other than underweighting the mega-cap tech stocks for fear they will fall back to earth, the biggest risk I’ve chosen to protect against over the past few years is rising rates I’m not predicting higher rates. I’m not shorting Treasurys. If rates stay at current levels or fall, my stock funds, and thus my overall portfolio, should do fine. It’s just that my bond holdings, geared to limit rate risk, would lag the overall bond market index if rates fell (bond prices rise when rates go down). That’s because the index is heavy on Treasurys — since Uncle Sam is such a prodigious borrower — and has significant interest rate sensitivity. But that’s a risk I’m willing to take. I don’t want both my stock holdings and my bond holdings excessively vulnerable to an unexpected increase in rates. Here’s my approach to the 33% of my portfolio that’s in bonds. It’s broadly diversified — arguably overcomplicated, but I have many retirement accounts and an emergency fund. It’s duration (a measure of interest rate sensitivity) is just 2.7 versus 5.9 for the iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (symbol: AGG), which tracks the overall investment grade bond market. To illustrate duration, the ETF would lose (or gain) 5.9% for a 1 percentage point rise (or fall) in interest rates. That’s more fluctuation than I’d like, though some experts say that with a recent starting yield of 4.6%, the risk/reward…
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In and Out

DID I GET SPOOKED? Or did I respond rationally? Possibly a little of both. After buying as the stock market plunged from its Feb. 19 peak, I sold shares into the rally from the March 23 low, though my portfolio remains strongly tilted toward stocks. Waving the caution flag may even turn out to be the right call over the short term. Still, most of us—me included—shouldn’t be in the business of making market calls, especially not short-term ones. We have no benchmark to beat, no cable TV time slot to fill. Besides, my batting average with predictions is about .000. Where’s that designated hitter when you need him? I had a perfectly laid plan, formed late last year, to use market weakness to increase my target weight for stocks. And without much ado, I executed it by early April. I decided that a 76% stock allocation—up from the 72% target I’d been working with for a couple of years—was appropriate for my risk tolerance, especially because I had 10 more years of retirement savings ahead of me, plus my future Social Security benefit. But at 76% and with stocks roaring back, I quickly began to feel overexposed. Subsequent trades—including turning a quick profit, realizing a long-term loss, and switching more into bonds and conservative target-date funds—have lowered my portfolio’s stock position. The net result is that I made a little money from all the mayhem, but not really enough to justify the effort. What drove my selling? There were three stress factors: I had long planned to buy opportunistically on a significant market pullback. But it proved more taxing than I expected. Because there were such big market moves in March and April, I found myself glued to my cell phone, my office chair and my computer screen, often from early…
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Don’t Sweat It

BEING MECHANICAL and unemotional is a poor way to live life. But when investing, it just might make you richer. Through this year’s stock market turbulence, I’ve been even keeled. My reaction to the plunging bond market has been more agitated, as I wrote about here and here. The fact is, while I’m convinced the stock market will rebound, I don’t have the same belief in bonds. Armed with my faith in stocks, I’ve adopted a mechanical approach to investing, primarily using stock index funds. No more trying to outsmart the next guy. I don’t have to time everything exactly right or worry about where shares will bottom. I have an allocation target for stocks as a percent of my total portfolio, along with preset trigger points at which I intend to buy more during substantial market dips. Pretty much all I need to know during a downdraft is, how far is the market from its peak? Sure, I subscribe to The New York Times, Morningstar and even Barron’s. I take advantage of the office subscription to The Wall Street Journal. I’ve got a wicked FinTwit feed of great financial journalists and pundits. And, of course, I read HumbleDollar. Still, as I make stock market decisions, it’s amazing all the things I don’t have to read. By avoiding overconsumption of financial news and advice, I keep my emotions in check and insulate myself from the temptation to put too much stock in predictions that seem persuasive in the moment. I don’t need to know how long bear markets have lasted historically, or their average decline, though I’m grateful to those who produce such information. I also don’t need to know what the market expects from future Federal Reserve interest rate moves. I don’t even need to know whether inflation has…
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