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If we don’t educate our kids about money, one day a broker will teach them lessons they’ll never forget.

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Peter Cancro from age 14 to 69 covered in oil and vinegar

"I was, however, pointing out that earning a billion dollars over decades and honestly is not a bad thing or something to the derided."
- R Quinn
Read more »

The Humbling Side of Aging

WHEN I STARTED writing for HumbleDollar, Jonathan gave me some simple but important advice: “Don’t brag about your financial situation. You want readers to like you.” Perhaps that’s one of the reasons he named his financial site HumbleDollar.

I try to follow this advice not only regarding money, but in other aspects of my life. I know how fleeting things can be—especially when it comes to health. Life can change on a dime. It can humble you.

At age 75, I’ve been fortunate with my health. I have had no major illnesses or pain that slowed me down. I could do pretty much whatever I wanted to do. However, that suddenly changed.

About a month ago, I experienced pain in my right eye, a mild headache, and nausea. I thought it might be the flu until I started seeing double.

I went to my optometrist, who said I should see a neuro-ophthalmologist. Because I have Original Medicare, I was able to see one the next day without waiting for a referral. Both physicians were paid for by Medicare and my supplemental insurance because it was a medical issue.

Without getting too far into the weeds, it was determined that one of the three cranial nerves controlling my eye movements was weakened because of temporary poor blood flow. Folks who have diabetes, high blood pressure, high cholesterol, or who are older face a higher risk of developing Microvascular Cranial Nerve Palsy.

The good news is that, in most cases, the nerve is not permanently injured and recovery occurs over six to 12 weeks. The double vision can be treated in the short term by patching either eye or attaching a temporary prism to your eyeglasses. The temporary prism is no longer working for me, so I have to use a patch.

It has been four weeks and, no pun intended, it has been a real eye-opener. I can’t drive and must rely on my wife to take me places. I’m beginning to get a taste of what it is like to lose my mobility.

I’m usually the one who does most of the shopping, so this has added more tasks to Rachel’s to-do list. We now use Amazon Prime more often to have items delivered to our house. One of my greatest fears is that I might become a burden.

When we’re out, Rachel wants to hold my hand because she’s afraid I might fall. Although I appreciate the help, it makes me feel older and weaker. I haven’t told any friends or family about my condition. I guess I have too much pride—or shame—to admit that I need help taking care of myself.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m lucky to have someone helping me through this ordeal. I have also learned something about myself.

What surprised me most is how much of my identity was wrapped up in being independent. I spent the first 10 years of my retirement taking care of my parents. I liked being the helper, not the one needing help. I liked driving, shopping, carrying things, fixing problems, and taking care of myself. Losing some of that, even temporarily, has been harder emotionally than physically.

Maybe that’s why setbacks like this humble us. They remind us that none of us is fully self-sufficient, no matter how healthy, capable, or financially secure we may feel. At some point, we all depend on others.

Rachel hasn’t complained once. She simply adjusted. She drives me where I need to go, walks a little closer beside me, and is always there to lend a helping hand. What I first saw as weakness on my part, I’m beginning to see differently. Allowing someone to help you can also be an act of trust and love.

This experience has also made me think about the future. Many of us spend years planning financially for retirement, but we don’t spend nearly as much time preparing emotionally for the possibility that someday we may need help ourselves. That may be one of retirement’s hardest lessons.

I also understand why most elderly people want to age in place. Perhaps like me, they find the emotional challenge of giving up some independence hard to fathom. But I'm beginning to realize that Rachel and I are going to need help in our later years. It comes down to what kind of help we are looking for.

We don’t just need a financial plan for when our health changes; we need a care plan. For Rachel and me, aging in place will mean redefining what help looks like. It might mean:

Modifying our home to prevent falls
Hiring a local driver
Outsourcing daily chores
Using grocery delivery services permanently

Most importantly, it means having difficult conversations now about what we will do if a temporary setback becomes a permanent reality. For instance, how much of our portfolio are we willing to allocate to home-health aides before considering an assisted living facility? What physical benchmarks signal that it’s time to hand over the financial reins to a trusted executor?

We spent our lives living below our means so we could build financial safety nets and not have to depend on anyone. But as it turns out, the most valuable asset we have in retirement isn't our robust portfolio. It’s the person holding our hand when the world goes blurry.

Fortunately, my condition will likely improve with time. I’m grateful for that. But even this temporary detour has given me a deeper appreciation for good health, Medicare, my wife’s support, and the everyday abilities I once took for granted.

Life has a way of humbling all of us eventually. Maybe the best we can do is accept it with a little grace—and remember that someday, almost everyone gets a turn being the one who needs a hand.

  Dennis Friedman retired from Boeing Satellite Systems after a 30-year career in manufacturing. Born in Ohio, Dennis is a California transplant with a bachelor’s degree in history and an MBA. A self-described “humble investor,” he likes reading historical novels and about personal finance. Follow Dennis on X @DMFrie and check out his earlier articles
Read more »

Don’t Kick The Can Down The Road

"It's definitely a long slog, but there's one key difference between a marathon and saving for retirement: thanks to compounding, it actually gets easier as you approach the finish line — rather than staggering over it on jelly legs like a runner does. The longer you keep going, the more the money starts doing the heavy lifting for you."
- Mark Crothers
Read more »

Due Diligence: A Cautionary Tale of Astronomical Planning and Geographical Oversight

"Well David, Suzie thought I was being too subtle and needed to spell it out more — but your comment proves I didn’t need to at all. Vindicated."
- Mark Crothers
Read more »

Moving is Expensive!

"Congratulations! It does sound like a tough move but soon it will just be a wine and cheese story."
- Michael1
Read more »

Farrell Behavior

"So annuities constitute your entire bond portfolio if I understand correctly. Are any of them COLA adjusted?"
- Michael1
Read more »

My Father: The Peace He Never Found

"David, so true but he never thought he was any better than you and I."
- Andrew Clements
Read more »

The Financial Stress a Simple Document Could Have Prevented

"I agree. Each state have very different estate laws."
- Lucretia Ryan
Read more »

Lifetime Supply

"Mark, Viewing a solar eclipse is an awesome experience. Had that opportunity in Ohio, April 2024. So cool! Good luck!"
- Andy Morrison
Read more »

The Quiet Failure of Good Advice

"Rick: I began the AARP Tax Assistance training this year, but unfortunately, I was unable to serve because I fell ill during the training classes. I am looking forward to doing it next tax season. In the meantime, I am looking into becoming a SHIP volunteer. If seniors need assistance with something as important as taxes, understanding Social Security, and Medicare/Medicaid, is a strong number 2!"
- Mike Lynch
Read more »

Money and Me

JONATHAN CLEMENTS’S final book was released this week. Titled Money and Me, it traces the arc of Jonathan’s nearly four-decade career as a personal finance columnist.

Money and Me starts with the story of a man named George Cope, who was a nineteenth century tobacco baron. At the time of his death in 1888, Cope was one of Britain’s richest men. But within just two generations, his fortune was gone. Why? Cope’s daughter was the sole heir to her father’s fortune, but she lived what Jonathan described as a Downton Abbey lifestyle, on an estate in the Cotswolds with five homes and eight children. Before long, the fortune was gone.

This story was of interest to Jonathan because George Cope was his great-great-grandfather. He called it the “big family story” and explains that this hard financial lesson was imprinted on everyone in his family from a young age.

In part because of this family story, Jonathan got interested in personal finance, and, among his peers, was early in focusing on the psychology of money. “I like to think I’m rational in the way I spend my dollars, and I suspect most readers do, too. We are, of course, deluding ourselves,” he wrote.

Early in his career, Jonathan covered mutual funds for Forbes, then The Wall Street Journal. Each week, he'd review a different fund and interview the fund’s manager. From that vantage point, he was early in recognizing a reality about Wall Street: that they’re great marketers but not such great investment managers. After reviewing scores of actively-managed funds, Jonathan came to the conclusion that index funds were a better way to go for most investors.

Since the investing question was “solved,” as he put it, by index funds, Jonathan turned his attention to other domains in personal finance. The relationship between money and happiness was of particular interest. Though he acknowledged that each of us has a happiness “set point” that is largely fixed, he pointed out that our happiness level isn’t entirely fixed. There’s plenty we can do to move the needle.

A chapter titled “15 Ways to Happy” includes a number of practical suggestions. Among them: Jonathan always recommended making plans—especially vacation plans—far in advance. Why? “Often, the best part of a purchase or experience is the anticipation, he explained.And since it doesn’t cost more to book early—indeed, it often costs less—that was his recommendation.

Jonathan leaned heavily on academic research and helped translate its findings for everyday investors. In Money and Me, he explains concepts from psychology including the hedonic treadmill, eudaimonic happiness and many others. Jonathan acknowledged that there’s no magic wand for achieving happiness. On the other hand, he explains why a million-dollar salary isn’t a necessary ingredient for financial contentment.

Jonathan also wrote a lot about spending. On the one hand, owing to his family’s experience, he developed frugal habits early in life, and he was grateful that those habits led to financial independence by age 50. On the other hand, he knew that frugality could be taken too far. In a chapter titled “Don’t Overdo It,” Jonathan offers a menu of ideas to help others who might similarly struggleto loosen the purse strings.

Jonathan had two children and thought a lot about how best to convey money values to them. He knew the risk in helping too much. Money doesn’t necessarily kill all ambition. But it seems to put a big dent in financial ambition, he wrote. For that reason, Jonathan mostly emphasized education rather than direct financial assistance. 

He describes, however, one important way in which his own parents helped him: They always made it clear that they were there for him as a backstop. Though he might have never needed it, simply knowing this support was in the background gave Jonathan the confidence to always invest heavily in the stock market. He describes maintaining an allocation to stocks that was regularly above 80% or even 90%. That kind of aggressive investing ran contrary to the textbook. But recognizing the benefit it had provided during strong markets over the years, Jonathan offered a similar backstop to his own children, thus allowing them to take risks that they might not have otherwise.

In choosing a heavy allocation to stocks, Jonathan explains some of the other factors that went into his thinking. For starters, he points to the role of financial forecasters. They’re often wrong, but that doesn’t stop them from waking up the next day with something new to say. As a result, during both stock market rallies and routs, prognosticators can be found on TV telling stories that often cause investors to overreact. In the chapter “Not Scared of Bears,” Jonathan walks through the math that should give investors the courage to ignore forecasters, to keep their feet on the ground and to stay fully invested regardless of what bad news happens to be in the headlines.

Jonathan was willing to pile on even more risk in his portfolio when markets declined. He acknowledged that this opened him up to the accusation of being a market timer—“pretty much the nastiest insult you can hurl”—but he explains a subtle difference between his approach and true market timing, then offers a helpful strategy for profiting from downturns.

Jonathan Clements was one of a kind. Like all of his readers, I miss his kindness, wit and good cheer. For decades, he helped readers navigate the potholed road known as Wall Street. With his final work, Jonathan leaves us with a timeless guide to thinking about money in uniquely sensible ways.

  Adam M. Grossman is the founder of Mayport, a fixed-fee wealth management firm. Sign up for Adam's Daily Ideas email, follow him on X @AdamMGrossman and check out his earlier articles.
Read more »

Peter Cancro from age 14 to 69 covered in oil and vinegar

"I was, however, pointing out that earning a billion dollars over decades and honestly is not a bad thing or something to the derided."
- R Quinn
Read more »

The Humbling Side of Aging

WHEN I STARTED writing for HumbleDollar, Jonathan gave me some simple but important advice: “Don’t brag about your financial situation. You want readers to like you.” Perhaps that’s one of the reasons he named his financial site HumbleDollar.

I try to follow this advice not only regarding money, but in other aspects of my life. I know how fleeting things can be—especially when it comes to health. Life can change on a dime. It can humble you.

At age 75, I’ve been fortunate with my health. I have had no major illnesses or pain that slowed me down. I could do pretty much whatever I wanted to do. However, that suddenly changed.

About a month ago, I experienced pain in my right eye, a mild headache, and nausea. I thought it might be the flu until I started seeing double.

I went to my optometrist, who said I should see a neuro-ophthalmologist. Because I have Original Medicare, I was able to see one the next day without waiting for a referral. Both physicians were paid for by Medicare and my supplemental insurance because it was a medical issue.

Without getting too far into the weeds, it was determined that one of the three cranial nerves controlling my eye movements was weakened because of temporary poor blood flow. Folks who have diabetes, high blood pressure, high cholesterol, or who are older face a higher risk of developing Microvascular Cranial Nerve Palsy.

The good news is that, in most cases, the nerve is not permanently injured and recovery occurs over six to 12 weeks. The double vision can be treated in the short term by patching either eye or attaching a temporary prism to your eyeglasses. The temporary prism is no longer working for me, so I have to use a patch.

It has been four weeks and, no pun intended, it has been a real eye-opener. I can’t drive and must rely on my wife to take me places. I’m beginning to get a taste of what it is like to lose my mobility.

I’m usually the one who does most of the shopping, so this has added more tasks to Rachel’s to-do list. We now use Amazon Prime more often to have items delivered to our house. One of my greatest fears is that I might become a burden.

When we’re out, Rachel wants to hold my hand because she’s afraid I might fall. Although I appreciate the help, it makes me feel older and weaker. I haven’t told any friends or family about my condition. I guess I have too much pride—or shame—to admit that I need help taking care of myself.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m lucky to have someone helping me through this ordeal. I have also learned something about myself.

What surprised me most is how much of my identity was wrapped up in being independent. I spent the first 10 years of my retirement taking care of my parents. I liked being the helper, not the one needing help. I liked driving, shopping, carrying things, fixing problems, and taking care of myself. Losing some of that, even temporarily, has been harder emotionally than physically.

Maybe that’s why setbacks like this humble us. They remind us that none of us is fully self-sufficient, no matter how healthy, capable, or financially secure we may feel. At some point, we all depend on others.

Rachel hasn’t complained once. She simply adjusted. She drives me where I need to go, walks a little closer beside me, and is always there to lend a helping hand. What I first saw as weakness on my part, I’m beginning to see differently. Allowing someone to help you can also be an act of trust and love.

This experience has also made me think about the future. Many of us spend years planning financially for retirement, but we don’t spend nearly as much time preparing emotionally for the possibility that someday we may need help ourselves. That may be one of retirement’s hardest lessons.

I also understand why most elderly people want to age in place. Perhaps like me, they find the emotional challenge of giving up some independence hard to fathom. But I'm beginning to realize that Rachel and I are going to need help in our later years. It comes down to what kind of help we are looking for.

We don’t just need a financial plan for when our health changes; we need a care plan. For Rachel and me, aging in place will mean redefining what help looks like. It might mean:

Modifying our home to prevent falls
Hiring a local driver
Outsourcing daily chores
Using grocery delivery services permanently

Most importantly, it means having difficult conversations now about what we will do if a temporary setback becomes a permanent reality. For instance, how much of our portfolio are we willing to allocate to home-health aides before considering an assisted living facility? What physical benchmarks signal that it’s time to hand over the financial reins to a trusted executor?

We spent our lives living below our means so we could build financial safety nets and not have to depend on anyone. But as it turns out, the most valuable asset we have in retirement isn't our robust portfolio. It’s the person holding our hand when the world goes blurry.

Fortunately, my condition will likely improve with time. I’m grateful for that. But even this temporary detour has given me a deeper appreciation for good health, Medicare, my wife’s support, and the everyday abilities I once took for granted.

Life has a way of humbling all of us eventually. Maybe the best we can do is accept it with a little grace—and remember that someday, almost everyone gets a turn being the one who needs a hand.

  Dennis Friedman retired from Boeing Satellite Systems after a 30-year career in manufacturing. Born in Ohio, Dennis is a California transplant with a bachelor’s degree in history and an MBA. A self-described “humble investor,” he likes reading historical novels and about personal finance. Follow Dennis on X @DMFrie and check out his earlier articles
Read more »

Don’t Kick The Can Down The Road

"It's definitely a long slog, but there's one key difference between a marathon and saving for retirement: thanks to compounding, it actually gets easier as you approach the finish line — rather than staggering over it on jelly legs like a runner does. The longer you keep going, the more the money starts doing the heavy lifting for you."
- Mark Crothers
Read more »

Due Diligence: A Cautionary Tale of Astronomical Planning and Geographical Oversight

"Well David, Suzie thought I was being too subtle and needed to spell it out more — but your comment proves I didn’t need to at all. Vindicated."
- Mark Crothers
Read more »

Moving is Expensive!

"Congratulations! It does sound like a tough move but soon it will just be a wine and cheese story."
- Michael1
Read more »

Farrell Behavior

"So annuities constitute your entire bond portfolio if I understand correctly. Are any of them COLA adjusted?"
- Michael1
Read more »

My Father: The Peace He Never Found

"David, so true but he never thought he was any better than you and I."
- Andrew Clements
Read more »

The Financial Stress a Simple Document Could Have Prevented

"I agree. Each state have very different estate laws."
- Lucretia Ryan
Read more »

Money and Me

JONATHAN CLEMENTS’S final book was released this week. Titled Money and Me, it traces the arc of Jonathan’s nearly four-decade career as a personal finance columnist.

Money and Me starts with the story of a man named George Cope, who was a nineteenth century tobacco baron. At the time of his death in 1888, Cope was one of Britain’s richest men. But within just two generations, his fortune was gone. Why? Cope’s daughter was the sole heir to her father’s fortune, but she lived what Jonathan described as a Downton Abbey lifestyle, on an estate in the Cotswolds with five homes and eight children. Before long, the fortune was gone.

This story was of interest to Jonathan because George Cope was his great-great-grandfather. He called it the “big family story” and explains that this hard financial lesson was imprinted on everyone in his family from a young age.

In part because of this family story, Jonathan got interested in personal finance, and, among his peers, was early in focusing on the psychology of money. “I like to think I’m rational in the way I spend my dollars, and I suspect most readers do, too. We are, of course, deluding ourselves,” he wrote.

Early in his career, Jonathan covered mutual funds for Forbes, then The Wall Street Journal. Each week, he'd review a different fund and interview the fund’s manager. From that vantage point, he was early in recognizing a reality about Wall Street: that they’re great marketers but not such great investment managers. After reviewing scores of actively-managed funds, Jonathan came to the conclusion that index funds were a better way to go for most investors.

Since the investing question was “solved,” as he put it, by index funds, Jonathan turned his attention to other domains in personal finance. The relationship between money and happiness was of particular interest. Though he acknowledged that each of us has a happiness “set point” that is largely fixed, he pointed out that our happiness level isn’t entirely fixed. There’s plenty we can do to move the needle.

A chapter titled “15 Ways to Happy” includes a number of practical suggestions. Among them: Jonathan always recommended making plans—especially vacation plans—far in advance. Why? “Often, the best part of a purchase or experience is the anticipation, he explained.And since it doesn’t cost more to book early—indeed, it often costs less—that was his recommendation.

Jonathan leaned heavily on academic research and helped translate its findings for everyday investors. In Money and Me, he explains concepts from psychology including the hedonic treadmill, eudaimonic happiness and many others. Jonathan acknowledged that there’s no magic wand for achieving happiness. On the other hand, he explains why a million-dollar salary isn’t a necessary ingredient for financial contentment.

Jonathan also wrote a lot about spending. On the one hand, owing to his family’s experience, he developed frugal habits early in life, and he was grateful that those habits led to financial independence by age 50. On the other hand, he knew that frugality could be taken too far. In a chapter titled “Don’t Overdo It,” Jonathan offers a menu of ideas to help others who might similarly struggleto loosen the purse strings.

Jonathan had two children and thought a lot about how best to convey money values to them. He knew the risk in helping too much. Money doesn’t necessarily kill all ambition. But it seems to put a big dent in financial ambition, he wrote. For that reason, Jonathan mostly emphasized education rather than direct financial assistance. 

He describes, however, one important way in which his own parents helped him: They always made it clear that they were there for him as a backstop. Though he might have never needed it, simply knowing this support was in the background gave Jonathan the confidence to always invest heavily in the stock market. He describes maintaining an allocation to stocks that was regularly above 80% or even 90%. That kind of aggressive investing ran contrary to the textbook. But recognizing the benefit it had provided during strong markets over the years, Jonathan offered a similar backstop to his own children, thus allowing them to take risks that they might not have otherwise.

In choosing a heavy allocation to stocks, Jonathan explains some of the other factors that went into his thinking. For starters, he points to the role of financial forecasters. They’re often wrong, but that doesn’t stop them from waking up the next day with something new to say. As a result, during both stock market rallies and routs, prognosticators can be found on TV telling stories that often cause investors to overreact. In the chapter “Not Scared of Bears,” Jonathan walks through the math that should give investors the courage to ignore forecasters, to keep their feet on the ground and to stay fully invested regardless of what bad news happens to be in the headlines.

Jonathan was willing to pile on even more risk in his portfolio when markets declined. He acknowledged that this opened him up to the accusation of being a market timer—“pretty much the nastiest insult you can hurl”—but he explains a subtle difference between his approach and true market timing, then offers a helpful strategy for profiting from downturns.

Jonathan Clements was one of a kind. Like all of his readers, I miss his kindness, wit and good cheer. For decades, he helped readers navigate the potholed road known as Wall Street. With his final work, Jonathan leaves us with a timeless guide to thinking about money in uniquely sensible ways.

  Adam M. Grossman is the founder of Mayport, a fixed-fee wealth management firm. Sign up for Adam's Daily Ideas email, follow him on X @AdamMGrossman and check out his earlier articles.
Read more »

Free Newsletter

Get Educated

Manifesto

NO. 37: WANT to boost your happiness and that of others? Volunteer, give to charity and make gifts to loved ones. We’re often happier when we spend on others rather than on ourselves.

think

MOTIVATION. Early in our adult life, we tend to be extrinsically motivated, meaning we hanker after promotions, pay raises, accolades and the material markers of success, like the big house and the luxury car. But as we grow older, we often become more intrinsically motivated, preferring to focus on things we personally feel are important.

Truths

NO. 131: DIVERSIFYING can smooth out a stock portfolio’s short-term performance—but to turn those smoother results into higher returns, we need to rebalance. Let’s say we have 60% earmarked for U.S. shares and 40% for foreign. As one zigs while the other zags, we can profit over the long haul as rebalancing compels us to buy low and sell high.

act

BUY A USED CAR. While leasing or buying a new car may be alluring, purchasing a used one is usually the better financial choice. By buying a three-year-old car, you’ll sidestep the steep depreciation that new vehicles suffer, but the car should still have plenty of good miles ahead of it—and you should have ample choice, thanks to all the cars coming off lease.

Investing

Manifesto

NO. 37: WANT to boost your happiness and that of others? Volunteer, give to charity and make gifts to loved ones. We’re often happier when we spend on others rather than on ourselves.

Spotlight: In Retirement

Get your head out of …. Creating problems that can be avoided. 

Although I have been retired over 15 years, I still receive employee benefit questions from a few employees and retirees of my old company. Sadly, many of those questions reflect the person not paying attention to their own situation, not planning, and thus putting themselves and family at risk.
Here is an example of a message I received recently.
“I retired in 2011 after around 35 years in Operations and Maintenance. I still stand confused on two things,

Read more »

Status of the Social Security and Medicare Programs

Released:
A SUMMARY OF THE 2025 ANNUAL REPORTS
Social Security and Medicare Boards of Trustees
“Based on our best estimates, this year’s reports show that……
The Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) Trust Fund will be able to pay 100 percent of total scheduled benefits until 2033, unchanged from last year’s report. At that time, the fund’s reserves will become depleted and continuing program income will be sufficient to pay 77 percent of total scheduled benefits……”
“As in prior years,

Read more »

What’s Really On My Mind

MY RETIREMENT HAS been wonderful so far. Honestly, sometimes I have to stop and remind myself how lucky I am. Rachel and I have our health and enjoy each other’s company, which is not always true when a couple retires. However, there are four things that concern me as I reach my mid-70s.
Loneliness
I tried calling Mark, my old high school friend, a couple of weeks ago, and I haven’t heard from him.

Read more »

100% Base Pay Replacement: What Does It Mean?

Generating a reliable source of income is one of the most important, and often challenging, parts of a successful retirement. Those of us fortunate enough to have a decent defined benefit pension have a leg up on this. Combine this with an inflation protected social security benefit, and some savings, and a retiree has a chance at a modest, yet comfortable retirement.  I’ve seen this firsthand. My in-laws were a truck driver and a part-time registered nurse.

Read more »

The aging appetite, dealing with leftovers and buying for two seasoned citizens: Rant by RDQ 

As much as I hate to admit it and exercise regular self-denial, I am old. All the signs are there, my date of birth for one, right in the middle of WWII. There are maybe ten of us born in 1943. Actually 2.9 million of which about 50% can still read HD.
I take the occasional nap-unintentionally though. I bother people by engaging in conversation and telling stories, my grandchildren call me Pa. Actually nowadays my children do as well. 

Read more »

In retirement a pension is a advantage. Are two family incomes during working years an advantage as well?

My past writing on HD and numerous comments have made it clear my retirement is unique in that I have a good pension that together with our combined Social Security exceeds my working base salary the day before I retired. It also has been noted that my pension has given us a financial advantage by not being solely dependent on investments income. It’s all true.
But I have noticed that many people on HD are from couples with working spouses,

Read more »

Spotlight: Zaccardi

Buy It Later

I ADVISED LAST OCTOBER that loading up on holiday gifts ahead of the main shopping season probably made sense, given problems with the supply chain. Foreign manufacturers were struggling to produce enough goods, plus many items were stuck in ships anchored off the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, California. Parents across the country, flush with cash, were frantic about getting their kids the latest hot toys. What a difference a year makes. While the supply chain isn’t exactly operating smoothly, several indicators suggest the situation has greatly improved. Moreover, many U.S. retailers over-ordered during the past two years, as inventories depleted amid the pandemic-induced spending boom. Problem is, at this juncture, it seems folks prefer services like travel and eating out, rather than buying a big screen TV or new athletic gear. Just last week, Nike reported a huge 44% quarterly jump in inventory. The retailer’s stock is now down more than 50% from the all-time high notched late last year. At the same time, big-box retailers like Walmart and Target have periodically cautioned Wall Street about their inventory gluts. Shares of those two household names are down sharply, too. Just how much has the supply and demand dynamic shifted over the past 12 months? Look to the Consumer Price Index. At its peak several months ago, core goods inflation hit 12% for the trailing 12 months. While still elevated, analysts at Bank of America expect deflation for core goods, perhaps late next year. What about inflation among core services, like travel and dining out? That might not reach a high until right around Christmastime. Wouldn’t you know it? Put it all together, and I think waiting until the last minute to buy things like toys, jewelry and electronics could save you a few bucks this holiday season. Retailers…
Read more »

Whither Cash?

IT WASN’T LONG AGO that a saver could make a few bucks in a money market fund. In late 2018, the Federal Reserve had hiked short-term interest rates. By early the next year, Vanguard Federal Money Market Fund (symbol: VMFXX) was sporting a yield near 2.5%. While it might take years to see that sort of juicy risk-free rate again, market observers now believe the Fed will begin a tightening cycle that will lead to higher short-term interest rates. Investors will get an update from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell during his press conference on Wednesday. Here’s something you can check today: There’s a nifty tool to view the implied future federal funds rate. Right now, it’s suggesting that a money market account might yield 1% by late 2023 and perhaps even 1.5% three years from now. In other words, don’t get your hopes up for lofty money market and savings account yields just yet. Concerns over inflation are driving the expectation of higher rates. Just last week, the five-year forward breakeven rate, a measure of expected inflation, climbed to almost 3%, the highest reading in its 18-year history. What’s strange about the recent jump in inflation fears is that medium-term and long-term Treasury yields are under 2%. Perhaps long-run economic growth expectations are tapering off, and that’s reflected in today’s modest yields. One result: To notch a 4% yield, bond investors are currently forced to own high-yield junk bonds. We, as small investors, have an advantage, however. A lot of ink has been devoted to Series I savings bonds over the past six months—with good reason. The annualized yield, which will be updated tomorrow, is likely to be near 7% through April 2022. Even though that lofty rate likely won’t last long, if the market is correct and inflation averages…
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Back From the Dead

JUST LIKE THAT, growth stocks are back in vogue. Vanguard Growth ETF (symbol: VUG) has outpaced Vanguard Value ETF (VTV) by more than nine percentage points over the past three weeks. That gap in favor of “risk-on,” meaning mainly technology shares, is the biggest since those two exchange-traded funds were created some 19 years ago. What gives? Weren’t all the strategists proclaiming a new era of value investing? It still seems that way based on what you hear on financial TV and read in investment magazines. My hunch is that the growth comeback, perhaps driven by a 75% rally in Tesla (TSLA) shares from earlier this year, is a short-term trend. Cast your mind back to the early 2000s bear market. Longtime investors might recall that rocky time. Making the downturn so grueling was not only its duration, but also its depth. The Nasdaq Composite peaked in March 2000, but it took until October 2002 to reach the market low, for a total decline of 78%. During those 31 months, there were several “bear market rallies.” Indeed, short-term snapbacks of 25% or more were common. This month’s revenge of the tech titans shouldn’t be a big surprise. Many investment managers came into 2023 underweighted in once-sexy stocks like Apple, Amazon and Tesla. According to data from Strategas Research, 62% of active funds beat the S&P 500 in 2022—the highest rate since 2005 and after a dozen straight years of sub-50% readings—and that outperformance was made possible by underweighting big tech stocks. Could 2023 be the year growth stocks find their footing again—and was 2022 an anomaly? We’ll have to wait to find out. But with the Nasdaq Composite stocks still trading at a pricey 26 times last year’s earnings, value shares appear cheap by contrast. That said, the winning investors so…
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Inflection Point?

MEGA-CAP TECHNOLOGY growth stocks were huge winners during the last bull market and even during this year’s coronavirus crash. But recently, they’ve lagged, while small-cap value companies have posted robust gains. Indeed, after a decade of lackluster performance, diversified portfolios that contain sizable holdings of foreign, small cap and value stocks have started to perk up. Could mean reversion finally be taking place? Are we at an inflection point? It could be—or it could be just another twitch in the market, a head fake, as it were. After all, value stocks performed relatively well at times in 2019 and international shares had a great 2017. But those turned out to be just blips on the radar. What makes this time different? COVID-19 crushed small and value stocks. Those companies were—and are—bearing much of the brunt of the pandemic’s economic fallout. We’re talking about outfits like restaurants, airlines and real estate investment trusts. Meanwhile, firms that sell online have benefitted from the shift away from physical contact and toward staying at home. In addition, mega-cap technology companies had massive amounts of cash on their balance sheets, so they were able to weather the storm better. The typical American family may not have had an adequate emergency fund, but these companies sure did. Maybe COVID-19’s stock market drubbing was the final washout after years of underperformance by small, value and foreign stocks. The recent flush also brought about attractive valuations. According to data from Topdown Charts, U.S. stocks are trading at about 27 times their 10-year average earnings. That’s about one standard deviation above the average since the 1980s. By contrast, foreign stocks are at 14 times 10-year average earnings, or about one standard deviation below the long-term average. What about value versus growth? Like foreign shares, value stocks are at historically…
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Treading Gingerly

AS INTEREST RATES head higher, where should bond investors turn? A lot of ink has been devoted to Series I savings bonds—for good reason. The initial yield, which applies to bonds bought through April, is north of 7%. Come May 1, it might go even higher if the inflation rate continues to climb. The recent energy price surge wasn’t fully reflected in February’s Consumer Price Index, so the coming months’ reports could be even more alarming. Problem is, there’s a limit to how much you can invest in Series I bonds, which are sold through TreasuryDirect. The annual purchase cap is $10,000. You can also put up to $5,000 of your federal income-tax refund into I bonds, though you must take delivery of physical bonds. You then have the option of converting them to electronic form. What if you have even more money to stash in bonds? Check out short-term Treasury exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Right now, you can buy iShares iBonds Dec 2024 Term Treasury ETF (symbol: IBTE) and earn a respectable, safe yield to maturity of around 2.2% a year over the next two-plus years. That beats the pants off a high-yield online savings account, which might offer a measly 0.5%. Other choices include the iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF (SHY) and Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF (VGSH). Why is there such a large yield gap between savings accounts and very low-risk Treasury funds? Short-term Treasury rates have jumped recently as the Federal Reserve starts to raise rates. The two-year Treasury rate, which was 0.2% six months ago, has vaulted above 2.1%. Another reason for the surge in near-dated maturities is the rapid rise in two-year inflation expectations. They were near 3.3% in mid-February and are now just shy of 5%. Rates on the long end of the Treasury…
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Quitting Retirement

DRIVING PART of the nation’s labor shortage is a wave of early retirements dubbed the “Great Resignation.” A red-hot housing market and booming stock market have made it financially easier for many to quit traditional nine-to-five employment, as has employers’ embrace of part-time, work-from-home positions. Add to that virus concerns and parents’ difficulty finding child care, and you’ve had a perfect storm for the labor market. According to a recent article in The Wall Street Journal, those exiting the labor market weren’t your typical job-quitters and job-switchers. The article notes that the Federal Reserve Banks of Kansas City and Dallas concluded there are 1.5 million more retirees as of April 2021 than would have been expected, assuming pre-pandemic retirement rates had simply continued. These early retirees face a problem, however: inflation. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) currently runs at a spicy 6.2%. Analysts see inflation averaging near that rate through much of 2022's first half. CPI is not only remarkably high, but its increase has also outpaced most economists’ forecasts for 2021. I wonder if higher-than-expected inflation might nudge some early retirees back into the workforce next year. Sustained higher living costs, coupled with a longing for the camaraderie of the office social scene, could prompt some folks to call it quits... from calling it quits. Early retirees, those younger than 62, can’t count on Social Security—which is indexed to inflation—to help protect their purchasing power. Owning inflation-sensitive assets like stocks, inflation-indexed Treasury bonds, real estate and commodities can soften the blow. But all those asset classes can drop in unison, too—as they did in late 2008 and early 2020. I’m one of those workers currently on the sidelines, ready to jump back into the game. I’ve been successfully running my own business this year after leaving the corporate world…
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