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What, Me Worry?

"Focusing on bear market dips seems like an invitation to market time. If one had simply remained invested over these time periods, the long term total returns for a 60/40 investor should be in the 8.0%+ range. The "real" return after fees (23 basis pts) and inflation (2-3%), should still provide a reasonable long term rate of return. And, if you can stand the volatility of a higher equity exposure, your comfort margin should be even greater."
- UofODuck
Read more »

The Anatomy of a Threshold Rebalance: April 2025

"My strategy, as well: rebalance with gains, not losses."
- UofODuck
Read more »

Forget the 4% rule.

"Great timing on this article. I literally watched a YouTube video about an hour ago discussing eight common retirement withdrawal strategies, with the 4% rule being just one of them. It’s amazing how many different approaches there are once you move beyond the traditional rule. They discussed methods like the Guyton-Klinger guardrails approach, which adjusts withdrawals based on portfolio performance. One method I didn’t see mentioned, though, was the modern risk-based guardrails strategy, which tries to adjust spending based on both portfolio risk and remaining horizon. I’m curious if anyone here has actually used one of these more dynamic withdrawal strategies in retirement. The theory makes sense—adjust spending as conditions change—but I’d love to hear how it works in practice."
- Fred Miller
Read more »

Frugal Fitness

AS A PHYSICAL therapist, I’ve spent a large slice of each work day teaching and encouraging patients as they exercise their way to better health. Along with other elements of treatment, each patient pays for a custom exercise program tailored for their specific problem. These are folks looking for a way past the debilitating effects of injury or disease. Even so, many of them find it hard to follow my plea to “do your exercises”. If they struggle to follow the helpful recommendations of a health professional, what about the rest of us? Over the years, I’ve found that most of us have at least an inkling of the health benefits of exercise. Still, like my patients, we often fail to act on that knowledge. Why? Maybe we can find the answer in the list below. Here are five common barriers that I’ve heard keep people idle: 1. No time. I’m sure it’s true. Long commutes, lengthy work days and activity-packed weekends leave little chance to carve-out a few minutes for our physical health. Even in retirement, time can be siphoned-off by the endless list of errands, obligations and leisure pursuits that keep us running. 2. No knowledge. Strange environment. Strange vocabulary. Strange people who seem at ease and know more than us about everything. That’s the challenge facing the novice exerciser stepping into the gym for the first time. It can lead to fear–fear of embarrassment, fear of injury or just fear of feeling lost. 3. No support. Going against the social flow can be painful for the lone exerciser. Choosing to head into the gym, rather than out for pizza and beer with friends can be hard. Or, maybe our spouse thinks exercise time is selfish time. Like exercise, social connections are important for health as well. Ideally, we shouldn’t have to choose one over the other. 4. No money. Let’s face it, gym admission isn’t free, and a home equipment purchase can quickly run into thousands of dollars. That price is no sweat for a fitness aficionado with extra cash who’s hooked on the exercise habit, but what about the newbie? Few people want a gym membership or treadmill gathering dust, reminding them of the resolution they didn’t keep. 5. No energy or motivation. Hectic schedules leave many of us drained and dreaming of a quiet moment to just be still. Other folks find themselves stuck in a sedentary rut, never straying off the path that leads from one seat to the next. For those in either camp, any thought of pumping iron or pounding pavement holds no appeal. That’s my short, anecdotal list of hurdles hindering folks from launching into a new exercise routine. For an in-depth look at more barriers to physical activity for adults over age 70, check out this systematic review of the research literature. Meanwhile, our bodies are missing the movement that keeps them healthy. What to do? Here are five baby steps to help us past the roadblocks listed above: 1. Minutes matter. It’s easy to get hung up on the notion of needing a set routine of exercises performed within a solid block of time. That may be ideal, but it’s not necessary. We can try weaving convenient exercises into the actual fabric of our lives. By the end of our day, a few, short bouts of five to ten minutes each can add up to meaningful progress toward fitness. 2. Study time. The online world abounds with exercise advice. Experts promise results ranging from building a healthy heart to gaining the perfect glutes. The choices can be overwhelming. I recommend starting tiny. The simple routine I’ve included below can help nearly anyone take the first step. 3. New network. I’m not recommending we dump our motionless friends. Still, our moms warned us about spending too much time with the wrong crowd. Think about who in our circle is already doing a little exercise. Maybe they’d like a partner? Or, maybe there’s someone we could recruit with just a little nudge. 4. Frugal fitness. We don’t have to shell out bucks to a gym to get a workout. Any time we move our body against the force of gravity, we’re exercising. With a little thought, we can round up a robust routine of exercises to perform at home with little or no equipment. Read on to find a starter set of exercises for the true beginners among us. This list costs almost no money and just a little time. 5. Finding a cause. Stuck for a stimulus that rouses us to action? Remember, imagination is often stronger than willpower. Letting our thoughts dwell on the end game can often be helpful. Do we want to cut a fine figure? If so, we don’t have to get swimsuit-svelte to claim success. Even a little slimming and toning from exercise can give our normal clothes a nicer fit. How about feeling better? Researchers from Boston University and the University of Massachusetts found that even a low-intensity exercise program can help older adults improve both physical and psychological fitness. And their study doesn’t stand alone. Reams of other research support their findings, and highlight even more benefits from exercise. Still, on some days, the only force that will get us moving is old-fashioned discipline. It’s the same determination that moves most of us reading this to make better financial choices most of the time. No matter what our motivation, nearly all of us can kick off our trek to better health today with the following routine: 1. Wall push-ups. Stand facing a wall at fingertip distance. With arms held straight at shoulder height, place your palms on the wall a little more than shoulder-width apart. Bend your elbows until your nose almost touches the wall. Push back until your elbows are straight. Repeat until you’ve done 10-20 repetitions. When wall push-ups are too easy, progress to push-ups with your hands against a counter. These exercises strengthen the muscles of your chest, shoulders and arms. 2. Shoulder blade squeeze. Sit or stand and place palms together in front of your chest with elbows bent and pointing down toward your feet. Pull your arms apart while keeping your elbows down until you squeeze your shoulder blades together. Do 10-20 repetitions. To progress, add the resistance of an elastic exercise band. This exercise works the muscles of the upper back. 3. Sit to stand. This is a wonderful exercise for buttock and thigh muscles. To begin, sit at the edge of a firm seat. Lean forward from the hips, then stand up without using hands, if possible. Sit down and repeat for 10 or more repetitions. You should stay balanced, with feet in full contact with the floor, during the entire exercise. 4. Calf raises. Stand with your hands on a counter to maintain balance, Rise up on your toes for 20 repetitions to strengthen the muscles on the back of your lower legs. These muscles are important for walking and balance. 5. Easy crunch. Lie on your back on the floor or bed with your knees bent and feet flat on the supporting surface. Slowly curl your trunk forward as you try to touch your knees with your hands, then slowly return to the starting position. Do 10-20 repetitions to strengthen your abdominal muscles, one important part of your muscular “core”. The last five. This exercise requires a decent set of walking or running shoes. Begin by walking out the front door and up the street for five minutes at a brisk pace. Stop and retrace your steps for the return trip back home, for a total of ten minutes of heart-rejuvenating activity. Will this workout ready us to run a marathon or toned-up to star in the senior sports league? No. Could it be better? Probably. Still, nearly every muscle–including the heart–gets a little work. And it may just draw us into a habit that keeps our bodies sturdy enough to enjoy the years ahead. Ed Marsh is a physical therapist who lives and works in a small community near Atlanta. He likes to spend time with his church, with his family and in his garden thinking about retirement. His favorite question to ask a young person is, “Are you saving for retirement?” Check out Ed’s earlier articles.
Read more »

Is there any point when a child needs financial help that you feel comfortable saying “not my problem?” 

"In about 1937 when father was 18, my grandfather told him he couldn't afford college. As my father was learning the trade of mortician, WWII came along and he used the GI Bill to get a degree after the war. I'm the youngest of six. All of us had the opportunity to go to college. My oldest three siblings never finished college, us younger three did. My older brother and sister that finished worked their way through college. I entered the military in 1979, got into a service academy in 1980, and Uncle Sam put me through school. I told my four kids I'll have the money to put you through the local state university, a solid school, if you live at home. I told them if you want to go away for college, you'll need a scholarship. The youngest 3 each got full tuition scholarships, went off to college, and I had plenty saved to pay the other expenses. They all have living wage jobs and do well. One of my sons was a late bloomer and he paid what he could, living at home, until he found a full time, living wage job after college. If I've learned anything about being a father of 4, is that every child is different and you have to be flexible about these things. There is no one size fits all approach to raising responsible adults. And even then, having kids can be like a box of chocolates--you never know what you are going to get."
- Patrick Brennan
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Economic Trends

LAST WEEK THE government released its monthly employment figures for February. The results weren’t great. Payrolls declined, and unemployment ticked up. These numbers square with other downbeat data, including a recent uptick in bankruptcy filings. Another worry: Oil prices have been rising, a result of the conflict in the Middle East. That’s a concern because it could lead to a reacceleration of inflation. It could also dampen consumer spending because higher gas prices act like a tax on consumers, leaving them with less to spend elsewhere. For these reasons, commentators have started to talk about the possibility of stagflation—a combination of stagnant growth and higher prices. But is that where things are headed? To answer that question, it's worth taking a closer look at two current economic trends. The first is what's been referred to as the K-shaped economy. To understand this idea, imagine a chart plotting the relative standing over time of those with higher incomes and those with lower incomes. Owing to a rising stock market, the shape of the chart for those with higher incomes extends up and to the right. Folks with lower incomes, on the other hand, haven't benefited as much from rising markets, and they've been more affected by higher inflation. So for this group, unfortunately, the shape of the chart is down and to the right. Put the charts together and they form a K. But how will the two legs ultimately affect the economy and the market? At first glance, this K-shaped divide would appear decidedly negative. That’s because lower-income consumers tend to spend a greater proportion of their incomes, so if they’re not doing as well, that can have more of an economic impact. That’s the most obvious conclusion we might draw about a K-shaped economy. But in that kind of economic situation, that likely wouldn’t be the end of the story. Downbeat consumer spending, especially in combination with higher unemployment, would likely lead the Federal Reserve to continue its current round of rate cuts. That, in turn, would help consumers by making everything from mortgages to auto loans to credit card payments less expensive. All things being equal, it would also help the investment markets, owing to the math behind stock valuations. The bottom line: This K-shaped dynamic doesn’t seem great, and probably isn’t great from a societal perspective, but the ultimate financial impact—and the timing of that impact—isn’t certain. The second big economic trend today is the boom in artificial intelligence. That includes the infrastructure build-out, which has been enormous, as well as its productivity impact for users, which is still to be determined. For now, all of the AI-related spending has been positive for the market and for the economy. But what will the ultimate impact be? On that question, there’s a lot more debate. According to one view, AI will meaningfully boost productivity, by giving everyone what amounts to a highly productive assistant, or team of assistants. But there’s no consensus on this. Others believe that AI will replace large numbers of workers and cause widespread unemployment. Which way will things go? This question is harder than it appears. Not only would we need to determine the net effect of AI. We’d also need to determine how those effects net out against all the other economic factors out there, including the K-shaped situation. To choose just one example, tighter immigration controls could lead to higher wages, which could lead to inflation and maybe pressure on corporate profits. The number of factors is almost innumerable. The bottom line: When markets wobble, the standard advice is to avoid overreacting. The reason for that is straightforward: because we can look back at history and see that we’ve managed to get through all past crises, and that the market has always recovered and gone higher. But there’s another reason to avoid reacting too strongly or worrying too much. Where things ultimately go in the economy will always depend on the complicated interplay among all of the factors out there, from AI to the K-shaped economy to the war in the Middle East, and everything else, including things we aren't even currently thinking about. Investors, in other words, should be careful to not focus too narrowly on any one news item because, at any given time, it’s always going to be just one of many factors, and it’s very difficult to know how those factors will all net out, and when.   Adam M. Grossman is the founder of Mayport, a fixed-fee wealth management firm. Sign up for Adam's Daily Ideas email, follow him on X @AdamMGrossman and check out his earlier articles.
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No, it is not a scam

"Michael - No. My point of writing that example is that a system has to support different types of affordability. Actually the person who can pay $2000 gets top class care in India with excellent hospital and care systems. Actually the medical tourism from countries in the Gulf is a great way how doctors and hospitals support even taking care of a $5 patient."
- Jayaraman Raghuraman
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Questions Matter

"Mark, you are apparently one the guys I mentioned in the very first sentence of my post, and my hat’s off to you. As usual you bring up a few good points. I have often joked that many of the business owners that I know, never would have survived as someone's employee. I actually was a good employee for many years, but that ceased when my employer changed the nature of my job. I viewed my choices as remaining in a job I now hated, or taking my chances in the great unknown. I had this vision of working on my own terms, which somehow led me to owning a tax practice.  Regarding your other good point, practice makes perfect!"
- Dan Smith
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Why Marlboro Gold is better Than Gold 

"If one needs to cross a border with their wealth, such as a person fleeing a war torn nation, bitcoin provides, by far, the best means. It's happening all the time but we just don't realize it here in the U. S. because we are fortunate."
- Patrick Brennan
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Sector Fund by Stealth

I'VE RECENTLY MADE the most significant change to my own portfolio in thirty five years. For the first time I've moved away from pure market-cap investing, tilting meaningfully toward Europe and Southeast Asia and bringing my US technology concentration down to around fifteen percent. I'm retired. I don't need to chase the outperformance that concentration might deliver, and I don't need the potential volatility that comes with it. This is a personal position rather than any kind of recommendation; it's nothing more than a risk management decision made at a point in life where I simply don't need the risk. What prompted it was a growing discomfort with something I suspect many everyday investors haven't fully reckoned with: the S&P 500 is no longer quite the animal it once was. A broad market index fund casts a wide net across the economy, and the S&P 500, which tracks the 500 largest US businesses by market value, has long been held up as the sensible default: low cost, well diversified, a bet on the whole rather than any one part of it. A sector fund works differently; it makes a deliberate, concentrated bet on a specific industry. If you believe technology is going to outperform the market as a whole, it gives you the ability to concentrate your capital into exactly the sector your research or gut instinct suspects is going to be the place to be and let it run. The theory behind each is straightforward enough. A broad market fund captures a larger slice of the investment universe and is generally considered the lower-risk path. A sector fund comes with a well-understood trade-off: higher potential returns in good times, sharper drawdowns when sentiment turns. Investors who consciously choose a technology sector fund know what they're signing up for. The risk profile is understood, accepted, and priced into the decision. The problem is that the line between these two things has become a bit fuzzy, and most everyday investors haven't noticed. A handful of technology and technology-related companies (Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon, Meta, Alphabet) have grown so dominant in their market valuations that they now represent a disproportionate share of the entire index. During the last year, the top ten holdings have accounted for roughly a third of the total weight of all 500 companies. The mechanism behind this is simply how the index works. The S&P 500 is market-cap weighted, meaning the bigger the company, the bigger its slice of the pie. As technology companies scaled their dominance through the 2010s and into the 2020s, their weight within the index ballooned accordingly. The index didn't change its rules; the market just rewarded one particular group of companies so heavily that they came to dominate the scoreboard. This means the investor who bought the S&P 500 believing they were spreading risk broadly across the American economy (energy, healthcare, financials, industrials, consumer staples) owns something that looks quite different to the story they were sold. You buy five hundred companies and a third of your money lands in ten stocks, most of them operating in the same broad technological ecosystem. That is a concentration risk, whether it is labelled as one or not. It's a sector fund “light”, acquired by stealth through the natural mechanics of market-cap weighting. The issue is that millions of everyday investors are carrying a version of that same risk without necessarily knowing it. Although I've used the S&P 500 as an example here, it isn't alone. Most broad-based indexes including developed world trackers will exhibit the same characteristics to varying degrees, because the same companies sit near the top of those indexes too. The MSCI World, often marketed as the global diversifier, allocates somewhere in the region of seventy percent to US equities, and within that, the familiar names reappear. You can cross borders on paper without ever really leaving the room. None of this is an argument against the S&P 500. The concentration reflects real, earned dominance; these companies grew to the top of the index because they genuinely deserved to. And whether my reallocation turns out to be the right call is genuinely unknowable. The concentrated index could continue to outperform for another decade and I'll have left returns on the table, a real possibility I've made my peace with. The point isn't that I've found the correct answer. The point is that I had the information to make a considered choice, weighed it against my own circumstances, and acted accordingly. That's all any investor can do. The uncomfortable truth is that a great many people haven't been given the chance to do the same. They're holding a product that has quietly changed its character, and nobody has thought to mention it. Better information doesn't guarantee better decisions, but it at least puts the decision where it belongs: with the person whose money it is. ___ Mark Crothers is a retired small business owner from the UK with a keen interest in personal finance and simple living. Married to his high school sweetheart, with daughters and grandchildren, he knows the importance of building a secure financial future. With an aversion to social media, he prefers to spend his time on his main passions: reading, scratch cooking, racket sports, and hiking.
Read more »

What, Me Worry?

"Focusing on bear market dips seems like an invitation to market time. If one had simply remained invested over these time periods, the long term total returns for a 60/40 investor should be in the 8.0%+ range. The "real" return after fees (23 basis pts) and inflation (2-3%), should still provide a reasonable long term rate of return. And, if you can stand the volatility of a higher equity exposure, your comfort margin should be even greater."
- UofODuck
Read more »

The Anatomy of a Threshold Rebalance: April 2025

"My strategy, as well: rebalance with gains, not losses."
- UofODuck
Read more »

Forget the 4% rule.

"Great timing on this article. I literally watched a YouTube video about an hour ago discussing eight common retirement withdrawal strategies, with the 4% rule being just one of them. It’s amazing how many different approaches there are once you move beyond the traditional rule. They discussed methods like the Guyton-Klinger guardrails approach, which adjusts withdrawals based on portfolio performance. One method I didn’t see mentioned, though, was the modern risk-based guardrails strategy, which tries to adjust spending based on both portfolio risk and remaining horizon. I’m curious if anyone here has actually used one of these more dynamic withdrawal strategies in retirement. The theory makes sense—adjust spending as conditions change—but I’d love to hear how it works in practice."
- Fred Miller
Read more »

Frugal Fitness

AS A PHYSICAL therapist, I’ve spent a large slice of each work day teaching and encouraging patients as they exercise their way to better health. Along with other elements of treatment, each patient pays for a custom exercise program tailored for their specific problem. These are folks looking for a way past the debilitating effects of injury or disease. Even so, many of them find it hard to follow my plea to “do your exercises”. If they struggle to follow the helpful recommendations of a health professional, what about the rest of us? Over the years, I’ve found that most of us have at least an inkling of the health benefits of exercise. Still, like my patients, we often fail to act on that knowledge. Why? Maybe we can find the answer in the list below. Here are five common barriers that I’ve heard keep people idle: 1. No time. I’m sure it’s true. Long commutes, lengthy work days and activity-packed weekends leave little chance to carve-out a few minutes for our physical health. Even in retirement, time can be siphoned-off by the endless list of errands, obligations and leisure pursuits that keep us running. 2. No knowledge. Strange environment. Strange vocabulary. Strange people who seem at ease and know more than us about everything. That’s the challenge facing the novice exerciser stepping into the gym for the first time. It can lead to fear–fear of embarrassment, fear of injury or just fear of feeling lost. 3. No support. Going against the social flow can be painful for the lone exerciser. Choosing to head into the gym, rather than out for pizza and beer with friends can be hard. Or, maybe our spouse thinks exercise time is selfish time. Like exercise, social connections are important for health as well. Ideally, we shouldn’t have to choose one over the other. 4. No money. Let’s face it, gym admission isn’t free, and a home equipment purchase can quickly run into thousands of dollars. That price is no sweat for a fitness aficionado with extra cash who’s hooked on the exercise habit, but what about the newbie? Few people want a gym membership or treadmill gathering dust, reminding them of the resolution they didn’t keep. 5. No energy or motivation. Hectic schedules leave many of us drained and dreaming of a quiet moment to just be still. Other folks find themselves stuck in a sedentary rut, never straying off the path that leads from one seat to the next. For those in either camp, any thought of pumping iron or pounding pavement holds no appeal. That’s my short, anecdotal list of hurdles hindering folks from launching into a new exercise routine. For an in-depth look at more barriers to physical activity for adults over age 70, check out this systematic review of the research literature. Meanwhile, our bodies are missing the movement that keeps them healthy. What to do? Here are five baby steps to help us past the roadblocks listed above: 1. Minutes matter. It’s easy to get hung up on the notion of needing a set routine of exercises performed within a solid block of time. That may be ideal, but it’s not necessary. We can try weaving convenient exercises into the actual fabric of our lives. By the end of our day, a few, short bouts of five to ten minutes each can add up to meaningful progress toward fitness. 2. Study time. The online world abounds with exercise advice. Experts promise results ranging from building a healthy heart to gaining the perfect glutes. The choices can be overwhelming. I recommend starting tiny. The simple routine I’ve included below can help nearly anyone take the first step. 3. New network. I’m not recommending we dump our motionless friends. Still, our moms warned us about spending too much time with the wrong crowd. Think about who in our circle is already doing a little exercise. Maybe they’d like a partner? Or, maybe there’s someone we could recruit with just a little nudge. 4. Frugal fitness. We don’t have to shell out bucks to a gym to get a workout. Any time we move our body against the force of gravity, we’re exercising. With a little thought, we can round up a robust routine of exercises to perform at home with little or no equipment. Read on to find a starter set of exercises for the true beginners among us. This list costs almost no money and just a little time. 5. Finding a cause. Stuck for a stimulus that rouses us to action? Remember, imagination is often stronger than willpower. Letting our thoughts dwell on the end game can often be helpful. Do we want to cut a fine figure? If so, we don’t have to get swimsuit-svelte to claim success. Even a little slimming and toning from exercise can give our normal clothes a nicer fit. How about feeling better? Researchers from Boston University and the University of Massachusetts found that even a low-intensity exercise program can help older adults improve both physical and psychological fitness. And their study doesn’t stand alone. Reams of other research support their findings, and highlight even more benefits from exercise. Still, on some days, the only force that will get us moving is old-fashioned discipline. It’s the same determination that moves most of us reading this to make better financial choices most of the time. No matter what our motivation, nearly all of us can kick off our trek to better health today with the following routine: 1. Wall push-ups. Stand facing a wall at fingertip distance. With arms held straight at shoulder height, place your palms on the wall a little more than shoulder-width apart. Bend your elbows until your nose almost touches the wall. Push back until your elbows are straight. Repeat until you’ve done 10-20 repetitions. When wall push-ups are too easy, progress to push-ups with your hands against a counter. These exercises strengthen the muscles of your chest, shoulders and arms. 2. Shoulder blade squeeze. Sit or stand and place palms together in front of your chest with elbows bent and pointing down toward your feet. Pull your arms apart while keeping your elbows down until you squeeze your shoulder blades together. Do 10-20 repetitions. To progress, add the resistance of an elastic exercise band. This exercise works the muscles of the upper back. 3. Sit to stand. This is a wonderful exercise for buttock and thigh muscles. To begin, sit at the edge of a firm seat. Lean forward from the hips, then stand up without using hands, if possible. Sit down and repeat for 10 or more repetitions. You should stay balanced, with feet in full contact with the floor, during the entire exercise. 4. Calf raises. Stand with your hands on a counter to maintain balance, Rise up on your toes for 20 repetitions to strengthen the muscles on the back of your lower legs. These muscles are important for walking and balance. 5. Easy crunch. Lie on your back on the floor or bed with your knees bent and feet flat on the supporting surface. Slowly curl your trunk forward as you try to touch your knees with your hands, then slowly return to the starting position. Do 10-20 repetitions to strengthen your abdominal muscles, one important part of your muscular “core”. The last five. This exercise requires a decent set of walking or running shoes. Begin by walking out the front door and up the street for five minutes at a brisk pace. Stop and retrace your steps for the return trip back home, for a total of ten minutes of heart-rejuvenating activity. Will this workout ready us to run a marathon or toned-up to star in the senior sports league? No. Could it be better? Probably. Still, nearly every muscle–including the heart–gets a little work. And it may just draw us into a habit that keeps our bodies sturdy enough to enjoy the years ahead. Ed Marsh is a physical therapist who lives and works in a small community near Atlanta. He likes to spend time with his church, with his family and in his garden thinking about retirement. His favorite question to ask a young person is, “Are you saving for retirement?” Check out Ed’s earlier articles.
Read more »

Is there any point when a child needs financial help that you feel comfortable saying “not my problem?” 

"In about 1937 when father was 18, my grandfather told him he couldn't afford college. As my father was learning the trade of mortician, WWII came along and he used the GI Bill to get a degree after the war. I'm the youngest of six. All of us had the opportunity to go to college. My oldest three siblings never finished college, us younger three did. My older brother and sister that finished worked their way through college. I entered the military in 1979, got into a service academy in 1980, and Uncle Sam put me through school. I told my four kids I'll have the money to put you through the local state university, a solid school, if you live at home. I told them if you want to go away for college, you'll need a scholarship. The youngest 3 each got full tuition scholarships, went off to college, and I had plenty saved to pay the other expenses. They all have living wage jobs and do well. One of my sons was a late bloomer and he paid what he could, living at home, until he found a full time, living wage job after college. If I've learned anything about being a father of 4, is that every child is different and you have to be flexible about these things. There is no one size fits all approach to raising responsible adults. And even then, having kids can be like a box of chocolates--you never know what you are going to get."
- Patrick Brennan
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Economic Trends

LAST WEEK THE government released its monthly employment figures for February. The results weren’t great. Payrolls declined, and unemployment ticked up. These numbers square with other downbeat data, including a recent uptick in bankruptcy filings. Another worry: Oil prices have been rising, a result of the conflict in the Middle East. That’s a concern because it could lead to a reacceleration of inflation. It could also dampen consumer spending because higher gas prices act like a tax on consumers, leaving them with less to spend elsewhere. For these reasons, commentators have started to talk about the possibility of stagflation—a combination of stagnant growth and higher prices. But is that where things are headed? To answer that question, it's worth taking a closer look at two current economic trends. The first is what's been referred to as the K-shaped economy. To understand this idea, imagine a chart plotting the relative standing over time of those with higher incomes and those with lower incomes. Owing to a rising stock market, the shape of the chart for those with higher incomes extends up and to the right. Folks with lower incomes, on the other hand, haven't benefited as much from rising markets, and they've been more affected by higher inflation. So for this group, unfortunately, the shape of the chart is down and to the right. Put the charts together and they form a K. But how will the two legs ultimately affect the economy and the market? At first glance, this K-shaped divide would appear decidedly negative. That’s because lower-income consumers tend to spend a greater proportion of their incomes, so if they’re not doing as well, that can have more of an economic impact. That’s the most obvious conclusion we might draw about a K-shaped economy. But in that kind of economic situation, that likely wouldn’t be the end of the story. Downbeat consumer spending, especially in combination with higher unemployment, would likely lead the Federal Reserve to continue its current round of rate cuts. That, in turn, would help consumers by making everything from mortgages to auto loans to credit card payments less expensive. All things being equal, it would also help the investment markets, owing to the math behind stock valuations. The bottom line: This K-shaped dynamic doesn’t seem great, and probably isn’t great from a societal perspective, but the ultimate financial impact—and the timing of that impact—isn’t certain. The second big economic trend today is the boom in artificial intelligence. That includes the infrastructure build-out, which has been enormous, as well as its productivity impact for users, which is still to be determined. For now, all of the AI-related spending has been positive for the market and for the economy. But what will the ultimate impact be? On that question, there’s a lot more debate. According to one view, AI will meaningfully boost productivity, by giving everyone what amounts to a highly productive assistant, or team of assistants. But there’s no consensus on this. Others believe that AI will replace large numbers of workers and cause widespread unemployment. Which way will things go? This question is harder than it appears. Not only would we need to determine the net effect of AI. We’d also need to determine how those effects net out against all the other economic factors out there, including the K-shaped situation. To choose just one example, tighter immigration controls could lead to higher wages, which could lead to inflation and maybe pressure on corporate profits. The number of factors is almost innumerable. The bottom line: When markets wobble, the standard advice is to avoid overreacting. The reason for that is straightforward: because we can look back at history and see that we’ve managed to get through all past crises, and that the market has always recovered and gone higher. But there’s another reason to avoid reacting too strongly or worrying too much. Where things ultimately go in the economy will always depend on the complicated interplay among all of the factors out there, from AI to the K-shaped economy to the war in the Middle East, and everything else, including things we aren't even currently thinking about. Investors, in other words, should be careful to not focus too narrowly on any one news item because, at any given time, it’s always going to be just one of many factors, and it’s very difficult to know how those factors will all net out, and when.   Adam M. Grossman is the founder of Mayport, a fixed-fee wealth management firm. Sign up for Adam's Daily Ideas email, follow him on X @AdamMGrossman and check out his earlier articles.
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No, it is not a scam

"Michael - No. My point of writing that example is that a system has to support different types of affordability. Actually the person who can pay $2000 gets top class care in India with excellent hospital and care systems. Actually the medical tourism from countries in the Gulf is a great way how doctors and hospitals support even taking care of a $5 patient."
- Jayaraman Raghuraman
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Manifesto

NO. 69: WE CAN’T control whether stocks rise or fall, but we can ensure we pocket whatever the market delivers—by diversifying broadly, holding down investment costs and minimizing taxes.

act

THINK OF YOUR assets as income. If you retired today, how much income would your nest egg generate? One rule says that, in the first year of retirement, you can withdraw 4% of your portfolio, or $4,000 for every $100,000 saved. It’s a sobering way to assess your readiness—and might lead you to save more, delay retirement or work part-time in retirement.

think

PARETO PRINCIPLE. Also known as the 80-20 rule, the notion is that 80% of outcomes stem from 20% of inputs. For instance, 20% of your purchases might account for 80% of the happiness you get from spending, or 20% of your investment research might have focused on your basic stock-bond mix and yet that drives 80% of your portfolio’s performance.

Truths

NO. 35: WHENEVER you buy or sell a stock or bond, somebody’s on the other side of the trade—and she’s likely far better informed. The financial markets attract some of the brightest minds: They’re the investors you’re trying to outwit whenever you make a change to your portfolio. Do you know more than they do—or do they know something you don’t?

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Manifesto

NO. 69: WE CAN’T control whether stocks rise or fall, but we can ensure we pocket whatever the market delivers—by diversifying broadly, holding down investment costs and minimizing taxes.

Spotlight: College

Resolved: More School

MOST FOLKS DON’T teach and write about a topic until after they’ve earned a degree in the subject. Owing to my career path, and the nebulous nature of my specialty, I’ve done the opposite—with the next step coming in 2022.
I went to law school just after college because—frankly—I had no better plan. I enjoyed being a lawyer, but I knew it wasn’t my passion, so I went into teaching. I loved it. I taught various humanities,

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Economy Class

ARE YOU NERVOUS about college costs? You should be. According to the College Board, the average cost to attend a public four-year university as an in-state student in 2017-18 was $20,770. Private four-year universities averaged a whopping $46,950. Ouch.
Lucky for you, the system can be beat. Here are four great ways to cut college costs:
1. Scholarships and Grants. Thousands of dollars in scholarships and grants are available—but you have to apply.

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Late Start

I WAS 45 YEARS OLD in 1988. That year, my oldest child started college and, the next year, my second son. Two years later, it was my daughter’s turn. The year after, my youngest went off to college. I had at least one child in college for 10 years in a row.
I bet you think this is a story of college loans and other debt. Nope, it’s about retirement planning. After going into major debt and using all my assets,

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Playing Defense

TRUTH HAS A FUNNY way of punching you in the gut. I received my punch thanks to the 2022 decline in the stock market, which put a dent in the “funded” status of the 529 college-savings plans for my two sons, ages 16 and 14.
Buy and hold is all well and good if you have an infinite investment time horizon. Strict adherents will argue that mark-to-market gains and losses are just noise. Time will smooth out the ripples.

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A Better Trade?

FOR MORE THAN 20 years, I’ve been the biology department manager at a small, liberal arts college located in the Pacific Northwest. My job is unique because I interact, on a daily basis, not only with students, staff and faculty at the college, but also with various building maintenance personnel, sales reps and instrument-repair folks who are critical to the successful operation of the department.
For me, it’s an interesting study in contrast.

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Spotlight: Ehart

How It Happens

THERE’S A SCENE in Three Days of the Condor, that very ’70s, America-in-decline movie, where the CIA is the bad guy and Robert Redford’s character is in danger of imminent extinction. Max von Sydow’s character Joubert—the Alsatian assassin—warns him that he has “not much future.” Then he calmly describes how the CIA will come for him. “It will happen this way,” Joubert says. “You may be walking. Maybe the first sunny day of the spring. And a car will slow beside you, and a door will open, and someone you know, maybe even trust, will get out of the car. And he will smile, a becoming smile. But he will leave open the door of the car and offer to give you a lift.” Let me paraphrase Joubert and tell you from experience how Mr. Market will occasionally come for you and try to kill your financial future. First, the market will fall far enough that investors start to be concerned. Not you necessarily, but some chatter begins. Worries are expressed. Theories are floated explaining why the market is down, and going to fall further.   Today, that might be the inflation narrative. Both stocks and bonds are down in 2022. At one point in January, the S&P 500 was off 10% from its high. But you know that happens to stocks every other year, on average. You buy the dip. Less frequently, the market will fall 15%. Now those predictions of big trouble get louder and more convincing. Still, you’ve seen this before. You buy more. Like Redford’s character—codenamed Condor—you’re still one step ahead. But once in a while, the market will drop 20%, then 30%. And at least once in your investment career, the bottom will seem to fall out. In mine, I’ve lived through: 2000-02, when the shares in the S&P 500 fell 49%. The index is now more than 700% higher, including dividends. 2007-09, down 57%. It’s again more than 700% higher. February-March 2020, down 34%. It’s now 100% higher. The further the market falls, the more prescient the doomsayers look. What are they saying now? That your past gains were based on easy money. It’s all a house of cards. America was living on borrowed money and borrowed time. Twenty-five-year-old crypto billionaires? Meme stock millionaires? You should have seen our comeuppance coming. [xyz-ihs snippet="Mobile-Subscribe"]  Hedge fund billionaire and author Ray Dalio contributes a doomsday scenario: America could collapse within 10 years because of populism, inflation and war. This time, the market won’t recover. Maybe those close to you start sounding the alarm, too. How will we ever retire? You feel like you better get this right. You may be ready to accept a ride from a friendly face and drive away from trouble. Maybe you’ll listen to a friend who sold everything when the news turned scary. Why didn’t you? Or perhaps a familiar Wall Street strategist or TV commentator will suggest bailing out. Or a legendary hedge fund manager in the high-brow financial press. They’ll say you can sidestep further declines, that buy-and-hold is dead. They’ll say you need to be in Chinese shares, gold, commodities—all the usual suspects. Maybe crypto is the future after all. Your own ego begins to convince you that you can call the next move. Stocks are obviously headed lower. It’s time to sell, to get a ride out of Dodge, even if just for a little while. This is exactly where Mr. Market wants you. Everything you think you know about what’s coming next was planted in your head: It took root because it seemed to explain the recent past. This is how Mr. Market, with all his multiple personalities at cross-purposes, weeds out the weak and the wrongfooted. Yes, Mr. Market can be your best friend, compounding your wealth over decades. But he’s also a remorseless assassin, occasionally—inevitably—destroying fortunes large and small, destroying the financial futures of the greedy and the innocent alike. But just like Three Days of the Condor, this is a movie we’ve seen before. The lessons of market history: Betting on a worst-case scenario is a bad bet. The market has always come back. Don’t risk selling near the lows, the point of maximum fear. In all likelihood, you will suffer a permanent loss of capital as you miss the rebound because the market is never going to seem safe until a new bull market is well underway. Then you may hear Joubert’s words: “You were quite good, Condor, until this. This move was predictable.” William Ehart is a journalist in the Washington, D.C., area. In his spare time, he enjoys writing for beginning and intermediate investors on why they should invest and how simple it can be, despite all the financial noise. Follow Bill on Twitter @BillEhart and check out his earlier articles. [xyz-ihs snippet="Donate"]
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Mixed Bag

MY LAST BLOG POST—about value-oriented Dodge & Cox Stock Fund—got me looking at the long-term returns for some highly touted large- and mid-cap growth and blend funds from 15 years ago. My surprise: Of the 15 funds in my admittedly unscientific sample, six went on to outpace both the S&P 500 and an index fund focused on the same market segment. The six winners are boldfaced in the accompanying table. Note: For two of the winners, Jensen Quality Growth and Vanguard Primecap, I used the S&P 500 as their style benchmark. The reason: Like the S&P 500, they have a blended investment style, rather than being pure growth funds. I believe it’s important to judge funds not only against a comparable style index, but also against a broad market index, such as the S&P 500 or Wilshire 5000. Why? An investor needn’t necessarily own, say, growth or value funds, or have extra small- or mid-cap exposure. That decision is on the investor. Think of it this way: When you invest in a style-specific actively managed fund, you’re certainly hoping to beat the broad market over the long haul. Otherwise, what’s the point? For my 15 celebrated funds from 2006, the range of outcomes has been quite broad. If you’d bought one of the 15, you had a 40% chance of picking a winner—meaning the fund beat both the S&P 500 and a comparable style index—and a 27% chance of ending up with a disappointingly bad loser. (Guess who bit on one of the losers at around that time? Ahem.) Interestingly, your odds of good results were much better if you stuck with the big, established fund firms. Lesson: The volatile gunslingers who occasionally shoot the lights out, like Ken Heebner who still runs CGM Focus, can be hazardous to your wealth. (Ahem, lesson learned.) Despite the success of six of the 15 funds, the experiment still illustrates indexing’s appeal. Four of the 15 funds were especially lackluster. One—the Bridgeway fund—was merged into a similar fund that also performed poorly. Others abruptly changed investment strategy, which happened at FPA Perennial, now named the FPA U.S. Core Equity Fund. That change in strategy saddled shareholders with a huge capital gains liability in 2015. Then there’s the issue of manager tenure. You might find the right manager at the wrong time in their career. Case in point: After a great 28-year run, T. Rowe Price Blue Chip Growth manager Larry Puglia will retire at year-end. How much longer will Brian Berghuis of T. Rowe Price Mid-Cap Growth (tenure: 29 years), Steven Wymer of Fidelity Growth (25 years) and Fidelity Blue Chip Growth skipper Sonu Kalra (12 years) run their funds? That’s the tough question that both existing and potential investors need to ask themselves.
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Never Better

BECAUSE WE’RE HUMAN, we always find something to complain about. But I’ve come to believe there’s never been a better time to be a regular, everyday investor. No, I’m not suggesting stocks are some great once-in-a-lifetime bargain. Rather, I mean the choices available to investors have never been greater, thanks in part to the growth of exchange-traded funds and the disappearance of brokerage commissions. On top of that, the costs of fund investing have never been lower. This was demonstrated again by the latest annual fund-fee study from independent fund analysis firm Morningstar. The study found that the average expense ratio paid by fund investors is half that of 20 years ago. The study includes all mutual funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs). “Between 2000 and 2020, the asset-weighted average fee fell to 0.41% from 0.93%,” says Morningstar. “Investors have saved billions as a result.” Even just the change from 2019 to 2020—from 0.44% to 0.41%— saved investors $6.2 billion last year. One factor driving the decline is competition among fund companies. Some index funds and ETFs now charge investors no expense ratio at all. That’s right: You can own a piece of every publicly traded company in the world at zero cost. Since 2016, the average expense ratio for passive funds that just try to match market indexes has fallen 12%. What about active funds, which try—without much success—to beat the market? They fell 11%. But there’s another factor at work: Investors are voting with their feet by moving money to less-expensive funds, be they index funds or actively managed funds. A big reason has been the migration to target-date funds that are composed of index funds, rather than actively managed ones. “The downward pressure on fund expenses is unlikely to abate,” notes Morningstar’s Ben Johnson in his ETF Specialist column. It’s important for investors to tune out the noise and focus on the fundamentals, and low costs are one of the most fundamental of fundamentals. Your investments may be higher or lower this time next year—but, whatever happens, your results will be better if your costs are lower.
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Someone Likes Value

DON'T LOOK NOW, but value is beating growth—just not here in the U.S. From May 31 through Sept. 29, iShares MSCI EAFE Value ETF (symbol: EFV), which invests in developed foreign markets, is up 5.6%, while iShares MSCI EAFE Growth ETF (EFG) is down 6.5%. That brings the year-to-date performance of the two funds to 9.6% for the iShares value fund and 4% for the iShares growth fund. Meanwhile, the style-neutral iShares MSCI EAFE ETF (EFA) is up 6.9% in 2023. U.S. stocks, as measured by iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV), are up 13.1% for the year, even after their recent selloff. I’m partial to Dimensional International Value ETF (DFIV), which yields 4.3% and is up 10.7% on the year. The fund’s small-cap sibling, Dimensional International Small Cap Value ETF (DISV), is also doing well in relative terms, up 9.5% year to date, well ahead of the style-neutral iShares MSCI EAFE Small-Cap ETF (SCZ), which is up 1.7% in 2023. Japan is among the better-performing foreign markets. The iShares MSCI Japan Value ETF (EWJV) is up 18.5% year to date, despite a weak yen, compared with an 11.5% gain for iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ). My little bet on Japan small-cap value continues to do well, though small-caps are lagging large caps in Japan. WisdomTree Japan SmallCap Dividend Fund (DFJ) is up 11.3% year to date, much better than the broad foreign benchmark and the foreign small-cap ETF. I also own stakes in some of the other funds mentioned here. What about developing countries? Dimensional Emerging Markets Value ETF (DFEV) is up 7.8% year to date, compared with 2.9% for iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (IEMG) and 2% for Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF (VWO), both of which diversify across growth and value stocks. All have heavy stakes in poorly performing China. I get my emerging markets exposure through the style-neutral iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ex China ETF (EMXC). But despite its avoidance of increasingly authoritarian China, it’s up just 5.7% year to date, still behind Dimensional’s emerging markets value ETF, with its 7.8% gain. Even in the U.S., value appears to be attempting a comeback versus growth—at least in relative terms. Vanguard Value ETF (VTV) is down 2.9% since July 17, versus a 6.4% decline for Vanguard Growth ETF (VUG). But for the year to date through September, it’s still an embarrassing showing for U.S. value stocks. Vanguard Value ETF is flat, while Vanguard Growth ETF is up 28.4%. The picture is a little better among U.S. small caps. Vanguard Small-Cap Value ETF (VBR) is up 2.1% in 2023, versus 7.3% for its growth counterpart. Still, just as those fond of a drink like to say “it’s 5 o’clock somewhere,” it’s good for thirsty value investors to know that cheaper stocks are being rewarded elsewhere in the world. Who knows? Maybe soon it’ll be happy hour for value devotees even here in the land of mega-cap tech stocks.
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Durn Furriners

A BURNING QUESTION has only gotten hotter as foreign stocks have lagged disastrously over the past dozen years: Should any of your stock market money be overseas? Most experts say “yes.” Vanguard Group, for one, recommends investors allocate 40% of their stock investments to foreign markets. In fact, some pundits have smugly derided what they call the “home bias” of those U.S. investors who avoid or underweight foreign stocks. Those stocks currently make up about 45% of world market capitalization. That smugness has waned considerably since 2007, as the S&P 500 Index has delivered a compound annual growth rate of 8%, versus 2% for MSCI’s Europe, Australasia and Far East (EAFE) index of developed country stocks. That’s a lot of opportunity cost. If emerging markets were included, the picture would look even worse. Vanguard Emerging Markets Index Fund is up a cumulative 10% over the past 12 years, compared with 29% for EAFE and 163% for the S&P 500. For this article and in the accompanying chart, I compare the S&P 500 and EAFE. The latter index goes back to 1970. By contrast, emerging markets indexes are relatively new, so it’s hard to do long-term comparisons. The data in the chart suggests investors can’t expect a “free lunch” by diversifying into foreign stocks. That phrase was used by Harry Markowitz, who introduced Modern Portfolio Theory in 1952. According to MPT, combining assets with similar long-term return potential but low correlations can boost portfolio returns while reducing volatility. Trouble is, foreign stocks have offered neither low correlations nor comparable returns for 12 years—and they didn’t in the 1990s, either. The only sustained period of foreign outperformance since 1989 was in 2002-07. Since the EAFE index’s inception in 1970, the S&P 500’s cumulative return has been double that of EAFE. But don’t write off foreign stocks just yet. Take a look at the chart. While annual correlations since 1989 have risen to close to 1—the point at which two assets move perfectly in the same direction at the same time—U.S. and foreign stock performance has diverged widely in each of the three distinct cycles. They’re moving in the same direction most years, but one usually goes much further than the other over longer periods. The collapse of the Japanese asset bubble dragged down EAFE’s return during Japan’s “Lost Decade” of the 1990s. Indeed, at the market low of 2009, the Nikkei 225 index of Japanese stocks was down more than 80% from its 1989 peak 20 years earlier. There’s a lesson for us there. You remember how unbeatable we thought Japan Inc. was? (Okay, I’m showing my age.) Pop stars sang that they were “turning Japanese” and politicians said the U.S. needed to emulate Japan’s industrial policy. Imagine how invulnerable Japanese investors must have felt in the 1980s as they bought up U.S. real estate with inflated stock market gains and with money from their trade surplus with America. Now, think about the fortunes that subsequently were lost by Japanese investors with a strong home bias, as the Nikkei sank while other markets soared. Could a similar long-term unwinding of inflated valuations and expectations, coupled with economic policy errors, happen in the U.S.? Of course. While many U.S. investors still buy into the emerging markets story, we’re tempted to think America will forever lap what we see as senescent European and Japanese markets. How exactly could their economies and financial markets ever beat ours again? What’s the story, what’s the catalyst? The point is, we don’t know and we can’t know. Frankly, the emerging markets story is full of holes, too. A strong argument for diversification: It’s a defense against the unknown—a way to guard against our own hubris when we start to feel confident. No one can tell you whether foreign stocks will enhance your portfolio going forward. Still, expectations and valuations for overseas markets are relatively low—which is one reason they could trounce U.S. stocks in some multiyear period in the future, as they have in the past. My suggestion: Set a target percentage allocation for foreign stocks and thereafter regularly rebalance—perhaps annually, every two years or when they move some trigger amount from your target percentage. That way, you take your own emotions, expectations and predictions out of the decision. What about my own portfolio? Don’t take this as a recommendation, but several years ago I set my target overseas allocation at 38% of my stock investments, with a significant stake in submerging—I mean emerging—markets. I was positioning for a rebound that hasn’t happened yet, and trying to follow expert asset allocation advice. Many a time I’ve been tempted to reduce my stake, but I’ve stuck to it, figuring that any decision I make based on disappointment with past performance likely will be the wrong one. Forget about betting on the best investment, ignore pundits’ predictions and guru allocations, and—above all—curb your own enthusiasm. Instead, think of diversifying overseas as hedging your bets. William Ehart is a journalist in the Washington, D.C., area. Bill's previous articles include Oldies but Goodies, Mild Salsa and Weight Problem. In his spare time, he enjoys writing for beginning and intermediate investors on why they should invest and how simple it can be, despite all the financial noise. Follow Bill on Twitter @BillEhart. [xyz-ihs snippet="Donate"] 
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Before the Fall

THE SUDDEN BULL MOVE of 1991 enraged me. Mr. Market waved the red flag and I charged. Forget balanced, S&P 500 and large-cap value funds. I was gonna get me one of them aggressive funds that goes up 99% in a year. I greedily and resentfully scanned the list of 1991’s 10 top-performing mutual funds. Why didn’t I own any of them? Oppenheimer Global Biotech was up 121%. Vanguard Windsor II, which I owned around that time, was up 28.7%. Clearly, value stocks were not the place to be. But like Fredo in The Godfather, I was “smart.” I wasn’t going to chase last year’s hot sector. I wanted a fund manager who could hop into and out of the right stocks and sectors at the right time, so I ruled out the three biotech sector funds on the top 10 list. What about the other seven, each of which gained more than 87% in 1991? At least six trailed the S&P 500 by a large margin over the ensuing 10 years. (I can find no trace of the seventh, MFS Lifetime Emerging Growth.) Still, back in 1991, four of the top 10 funds struck my fancy: Berger 100. Bill Berger, founder of this Denver-based fund, played up his mountain-man, far-from-Wall-Street image, wearing a cowboy hat and string tie in his ads. This had a certain tactile appeal for me, as I recalled the mountain air from a visit to the Continental Divide. I also read about Berger 100 in a book called, “The Best 100 Mutual Funds.” But ultimately, I didn’t take the plunge. I can’t find performance figures for the 1992-2001 period, but they were bad enough to cause portfolio manager Rod Linafelter to lose his job in 1997. The Berger Financial Group was sold to the parent of the Janus funds, and Berger 100 was merged out of existence in the early 2000s. Montgomery Small Cap. This little San Francisco-based fund seemed cool, sophisticated and tech savvy. But I was impressed that it wasn’t all about tech and biotech. One of its top holdings at the time was meat producer Smithfield Foods. Montgomery Small Cap had a high expense ratio (at least 1.4%) and proceeds were used partly to mail out fund literature on heavy bond paper. I called the office for more information and, in response to one question, the woman on the phone said of manager Stuart Roberts, “Oh, he’s very good.” I gave her a mulligan for that answer and mailed a check for the investment minimum of $5,000. Fund performance actually was great relative to the weak 10-year results of the Russell 2000 growth index. But I didn’t stick around that long. I was trying to beat the S&P 500. Montgomery Small Cap is now the Wells Fargo Advantage Small Cap Growth Fund. American Heritage. Ah, Heiko Thieme, the German fund manager who was a fixture on CNBC for years. He managed to lose 53% during the 1990s, despite his fund’s 96.6% surge in 1991. I called the fund’s offices in 1992 and inquired about his investment strategy. I remember the voice of a German man talking about dividend capture. That didn’t sound smart to me and I held on to my dough. In different years, Mutual Funds magazine named Thieme both one of the industry’s best managers—and one of its worst. American Heritage was liquidated in 2008. CGM Capital Development. I wanted this one bad. A concentrated, aggressive portfolio with a value tilt, it was up 99% in 1991. Ken Heebner—lionized in the ’90s and ‘00s, perhaps more than any other active fund manager—made a reputation for shooting the lights out with big investment bets. Unfortunately, CGM Capital Development had long been closed to new investors. Years later, I got my chance with Heebner’s newer CGM Focus Fund, an even more concentrated portfolio. The new fund also had the ability to sell short—that is, bet that stocks will fall in price. CGM Focus rocketed 80% in 2007, and continued to rise through mid-2008. Yup, I missed that one, too. Fortunately, I also missed the 66% cratering from June 30, 2008, to March 9, 2009. Finally, I invested more than $11,000 on March 8, 2010, using money from a 401(k) rollover. I vowed to hang on through thick and thin until the next Heebner homer. I’m lucky I moved on when I did, on July 1, 2014, with a total gain of just 36%. The S&P 500 had jumped 87% while I waited for Ken to connect. By that time, I was getting into indexing, asset allocation and (I admit it) emerging markets ETFs. The latter so far has been another wealth-destroying move, at least compared to the S&P 500’s 66% gain. CGM Focus has lost 16% since I withdrew my money. It is down 14% in 2019 through late June, versus the S&P 500’s gain of 18%. The fund is off 41% from its early 2018 peak and down even more from its mid-2008 high. That’s right: The man, who was called perhaps “the best fund manager alive” by TheStreet in July 2008, is underwater for the past dozen years, unable to eclipse his pre-crash high, despite the longest bull market in history. Currently, Heebner is betting the farm on Brazil. At last report, his biggest holding was Petrobras, at 14%. More than half of fund assets are invested in Brazil. Maybe soon Brazil—and Ken Heebner—will knock the cover off the ball again. I’m sure they will at some point. But I’m out of the home run derby. I’m behind the count on my retirement hopes. Singles can get me where I need to go over the next 15 or 20 years—but I can’t afford to strike out again. William Ehart is a journalist in the Washington, D.C., area. Bill's previous articles were No A for Effort and Father Knew Best. In his spare time, he enjoys writing for beginning and intermediate investors on why they should invest and how simple it can be, despite all the financial noise. Follow Bill on Twitter @BillEhart. [xyz-ihs snippet="Donate"]
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