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Something to Think About

"My theory is that, since the 401(k) is the primary vehicle for most workers to save, the timeline of the Roth 401(k) could answer your question. 2006 was the first year that companies could offer the option, and 2023 was the first year that employers were allowed to make matching contributions directly into the Roth. I bet the youngsters will have lots more money in Roths than we boomers have. "
- Dan Smith
Read more »

Let the Arrows Speak for Themselves

"In addition to my academic career, I’ve been on the boards of several non-profits. I’ve thought a lot about organizations that rely on volunteer labor and goodwill. A pastor friend of mine wrote a good book about this. The main thesis is that the social contract with volunteers is different from that of paid employees. You have to treat them well or they will take their time and energy elsewhere. If it’s your job, you might have to put up with stuff. When you’re volunteering, you don’t have to. As Kathy and Elaine noted on the “Ladies” post, HD is like a community garden that everyone needs to work in to make it successful. Most of us are volunteers when it comes to our contributions here. Having an environment where people feel respected and welcome is key to a healthy balance of participants and perspectives. Certainly some are more “sensitive” than others to negative undertones, but it takes all kinds of people to make a community, and perhaps those people see what others might miss sometimes. I appreciate your thoughts!"
- DrLefty
Read more »

Wrapping It Up

"I feel better finding out I made a mistake with my money, rather than learning someone else made a mistake for me.”  I began doing my own taxes sometime in the 80’s, when I discovered a substantial error made by my CPA. My thinking was, why should I pay a CPA to screw up my taxes, when I can screw them up myself… for free! I think you have shared a great deal of financial wisdom in this post, Ken. "
- Dan Smith
Read more »

Any concern?

"Anyone approaching or in retirement should be practicing wealth defense and that could include some funds outside of the stock market. That’s what experts, including Christine Benz at Morningstar suggest. How much depends upon one’s “sleep number”.  Some suggest 5 years’ worth, others suggest more, others less.  Keep in mind the amount is after calculating expenses and subtracting Social Security and Pension benefits as well as other income. For example, if my annual expenses are $60,000 and my only retirement benefit in retirement is a $23,000 annual SS benefit, I would need to pull $37,000 from my savings and retirement portfolio, each year. 5 years would suggest $185,000 in savings outside of the stock market. What’s the historical evidence? Since 2000, stock market downturns haven’t lasted more than 19.5 years. Some have lasted only 6-7 months. But it can take years for the market to recover and that is what matters. For example, the bear market downturn which began in March 2000 spanned 19.5 months and the market declined 36.77%. However, 10 years later the post down-turn cumulative return was only 20.8%. The October 2007 bear market lasted 14.5 months with a 51.9% decline. Five years later the cumulative return was 136.7%. As I approached retirement, I re-allocated my retirement funds and accumulated “cash”. At retirement I was 70%/30% stocks/bonds-cash. Today I own even fewer stocks/stock funds.  One of the challenges is to manage greed. This can occur as Fear of Missing Out. I’ve read that long bull markets may foster complacency in investors. In 2007 if one was heavily invested in financials, the negative impact was worse than the S&P average. Today, large allocations in tech may also carry additional risk. Another component is just how large the retirement fund is, and how many years it will be required to last. As we progress through our retired years, we may find that our savings are excessive. For someone in that situation, the amount of cash may not be critically important. For example, let’s say I were to run my numbers. Quicken’s Lifetime Planner is a useful tool for this and there are others. I can be sophisticated about this and include a SS benefit reduction if I am concerned about that, or if I am concerned about a “worst case” scenario. In my case, the numbers indicate excessive savings. That implies I could have a larger percentage of stocks, or spend more each year, or reduce savings. Any decision is where managing greed becomes important. "
- normr60189
Read more »

Prepping to Pull the Trigger

"I'm in total agreement with both of those sentences!"
- Dan Smith
Read more »

Debreifing

"Years ago, I was only vaguely aware of IRMAA. I processed a tax return for a married couple, and was able to save them about $1000 by using the Married Filing Separate (MFS) status. Two years later they were hit with the IRMAA premium which was much greater than the $1000 saved on their income tax. I was able to amend the tax returns and secure refunds on the IRMAA charges.  So beware, the reduced income thresholds for IRMAA, when using the MFS filing status, are brutal."
- Dan Smith
Read more »

Social Security Spousal Benefits

"You are welcome Kristine. Seeing Michael's query below shows that the rules can be true one day and change later and that Social Security might not follow-up unless prompted."
- James McGlynn CFA RICP®
Read more »

Treasury Tax Reporting

IF YOU HAVE a Money Market Fund (e.g. VUSXX, VMFXX), Treasury fund (e.g. SGOV), or any other Treasury ETF (e.g. VBIL), you need to know how to report it on your taxes correctly. If you don’t, you are overpaying on your state taxes unknowingly. 

How and why?

These funds hold U.S. Treasury Bills. Treasuries are exempt from state and local taxes. Of course, this only matters if you hold these funds in a taxable brokerage account, which most people do.

The broker sends you a 1099-DIV form, but it’s your responsibility to figure out how to report it on your taxes correctly. By the way, bad tax preparers can miss this sometimes, or if you self-prepare, this may be something you aren't aware of (I hope most of you reading HumbleDollar are familiar with this!)

This is one of those areas where the reporting rules are technically simple, but the execution is where people mess up. The IRS gets their share regardless (since interest is fully taxable at the federal level), but if you don’t adjust properly, your state will too, even when it shouldn’t.

The 1099-DIV doesn’t break out how much of the dividend was allocated to Treasuries. The software also wouldn’t know how much based on the 1099-DIV. This means that you generally have to figure out how to report it (or ensure your CPA does it correctly).

Now, the 1099-DIV will have a breakdown of every single stock/ETF you have, but you have to find out the percentage of a fund that holds Treasuries.

This percentage is not on your brokerage statement. It comes directly from the fund provider (Vanguard, iShares, Schwab, etc), usually buried in their “tax center” or “year-end tax supplement” pages.

Let me give you an actual example.

Say, in 2025, you received $5,000 of dividends from two funds.

Then, if you scroll down, you will see a “Detail Information” of your dividends:

Interest

We can see that $2,456.78 came from Vanguard Federal Money Market fund.

The entire $2,456.78 will be taxed at the federal level, but how do we figure out what’s taxed at the state level?

This is where the extra step comes is.

During the end of the year, the fund manager (e.g Vanguard for VMFXX) will post a “US government source income information” on their Tax page.

This report tells you what portion of the fund’s income is derived from U.S. government obligations (Treasuries), which is the key to the state tax exemption.

VMFXX

We can see that 66.61% of VMFXX holdings for the 2025 tax year were income derived from the U.S. government and, therefore, are not taxable at the state level.

So, we would take $2,456.78 * 0.6661 = $1,636. Of the total, $1,636 is derived from U.S. obligations, and you would only pay state taxes on the remaining ~$819.

That $2,456.78 is still fully taxable federally. This is strictly a state adjustment.

It’s also important to note that some states say "if less than 50% of the fund is from the U.S. government (like Treasury Bills), you can treat it as 0%.”

For example, California, Connecticut, and New York are some of these states. So, if the fund has only 35% coming from the Treasury, you shouldn’t even calculate the exempt amount for these states.

Now, if you buy Treasuries directly from TreasuryDirect, they will send you a 1099-INT, and you can just enter that information directly into the tax software. No extra calculations are needed. That’s because the income is already clearly identified as U.S. government interest, no allocation required.

So, how do you report that dividend interest calculation?

In most tax softwares, after entering the 1099-DIV, it will ask: "Did a portion of dividends came from a U.S. Government interest?'

So, you would just check it off/select and enter the amount from Treasuries ($1,636 in our example).

Behind the scenes, this flows into your state return as a subtraction or adjustment, depending on the state.

Some software might ask for the percentage of dividends that are state tax exempt. However, this is a bit tricky because you might receive other dividends in your brokerage account.

In that case, calculate the amount from the Treasury, say $1,636, and divide it by your total dividend amount (e.g. $5,000)

If you have someone do your taxes and you have some of these Money Market Funds or other Treasury ETFs, double-check your state tax return and see the amounts reported. This will save you some money. It's also not too late to amend your tax return if this was missed.

Specifically, look for a “U.S. government interest subtraction” or similarly labeled line item on your state return. If it’s zero and you held these funds, that’s a red flag.

If you live in a no tax state, this would not apply to you, but still good to know in case you move!

I hope you found this one valuable.

  Bogdan Sheremeta is a licensed CPA based in Illinois with experience at Deloitte and a Fortune 200 multinational.
Read more »

Time to Be Fearful

"Managing my emotions after the Dot-Com bust has made me a much better investor. and, I sleep better at night, too. I'm a firm believer of being prepared for the next downturn as well as a boom market. Purchasing stock sectors that are out of favor is a tried and true, long term approach. When the EV economy was being pushed and subsidized was one such opportunity."
- normr60189
Read more »

Doubt the Forecast

WHEN PAUL EHRLICH'S obituary appeared a few weeks ago, it came and went without much notice. But during his lifetime, he was enormously influential. By training, Ehrlich was a biologist, but he was most well known for his 1968 book, The Population Bomb. It opened with this dire prediction: “The battle to feed all of humanity is over. In the 1970s and 1980s hundreds of millions of people will starve to death.” In his writings and speeches over the years, he reiterated this point in terms that became even more extreme. In 1970, he argued that famine would kill 65 million Americans during the 1980s. And in 1971, he offered this prediction about the U.K.: “If I were a gambler, I would take even money that England will not exist in the year 2000.” It was destined to become “a small group of impoverished islands, inhabited by some 70 million hungry people.” Why did Ehrlich hold these views? Earlier in his career, he had traveled to developing countries and concluded that their population growth was unsustainable. He argued that the world’s population needed to be cut in half and proposed a number of ideas to accomplish that. “The operation will demand many apparently brutal and heartless decisions,” he acknowledged. Of course, none of Ehrlich’s predictions came close to being true, but that didn’t impact his popularity. He made more than 20 appearances on The Tonight Show—so many, in fact, that he was required to join the Screen Actors Guild. And despite Ehrlich’s impressively poor track record over nearly 60 years, The New York Times, in its obituary, still couldn’t criticize. Instead, the paper referred to his apocalyptic predictions as simply being “premature.” What can we learn from this? I see five key lessons for individual investors.
  1. No one can see around corners, and we shouldn’t believe anyone who can claim to be able to. Presumably, there was some scientific basis for Ehrlich’s predictions. The problem, though, was that all of his predictions were based on extrapolation, and he could only extrapolate from the facts available at the time. For example, he had no idea how advances in agriculture would outpace population growth, made possible by technologies like LED bulbs for indoor farming, something that hadn’t yet been invented at the time.
  2. We should be inherently skeptical of extreme predictions. Extreme views aren’t necessarily wrong. After all, extreme things can and have happened. The reason we should be skeptical is because the world is complex. As I noted a few weeks back, it’s possible for an observation to be correct but incomplete. And that was a key flaw in Ehrlich’s thinking.
The formula at the center of his research considered just three variables (population, affluence and technology). But when it comes to most things in the world, the ultimate outcome is dependent on many more variables than that. So someone like Ehrlich might have been accurate with one, or even more than one, of his observations. But at the same time, he was ignoring innumerable other factors, such as public policy decisions.
  1. In a similar vein, we should be wary of stories that sound convincing only because of the way they’re presented. I’ve discussed before the phenomenon of the “single story”—when an overly simplified, one-dimensional version of the facts takes on a life of its own. Later in life, Ehrlich acknowledged that he had benefited from this sort of thing: “The publisher’s choice of The Population Bomb was perfect from a marketing perspective…,” he wrote.
  2. We shouldn’t be too easily impressed by credentials. Despite being almost entirely wrong with his “population bomb” arguments, Ehrlich was a tenured professor at Stanford and received numerous awards. This carries an important lesson: Smart people can veer off course just as much as anyone else. As I’ve noted before, the scientist who invented the lobotomy received the Nobel Prize for his work. We should never blindly accept an argument based solely on its source.
  3. We should be careful of confirmation bias. That’s the emotional tendency to look for evidence that confirms pre-existing beliefs. In Ehrlich’s case, despite all the disconfirming evidence, he never backed down from his views. 
In 1980, economist Julian Simon challenged Ehrlich to a bet. Simon let Ehrlich pick a basket of commodities and wagered that each of them would be less expensive by 1990. For his part, Ehrlich was sure they’d all increase in price due to population pressure. Ten years later, every one of the commodities in the basket turned out to be cheaper, despite the population having grown by 800 million people over the course of the bet. Ehrlich held up his end of the bet, sending Simon a check for $567 in 1990, but he had his wife sign it, and he never acknowledged that he might have been wrong. Indeed, he doubled down. In 2009, Ehrlich commented that, “perhaps the most serious flaw in The Bomb was that it was much too optimistic about the future.” The bottom line: Prognosticators can be convincing and are often entertaining. As investors, our job is to listen with a critical ear.   Adam M. Grossman is the founder of Mayport, a fixed-fee wealth management firm. Sign up for Adam's Daily Ideas email, follow him on X @AdamMGrossman and check out his earlier articles.
Read more »

Private Credit Stress?

"Howard, as you point out: lack of transparency, reduced liquidity, higher fees. You have to hand it to the PR and marketing teams — there's a dark art to packaging those three as a compelling investment proposition. Genuinely impressive, in a slightly unsettling way."
- Mark Crothers
Read more »

Something to Think About

"My theory is that, since the 401(k) is the primary vehicle for most workers to save, the timeline of the Roth 401(k) could answer your question. 2006 was the first year that companies could offer the option, and 2023 was the first year that employers were allowed to make matching contributions directly into the Roth. I bet the youngsters will have lots more money in Roths than we boomers have. "
- Dan Smith
Read more »

Let the Arrows Speak for Themselves

"In addition to my academic career, I’ve been on the boards of several non-profits. I’ve thought a lot about organizations that rely on volunteer labor and goodwill. A pastor friend of mine wrote a good book about this. The main thesis is that the social contract with volunteers is different from that of paid employees. You have to treat them well or they will take their time and energy elsewhere. If it’s your job, you might have to put up with stuff. When you’re volunteering, you don’t have to. As Kathy and Elaine noted on the “Ladies” post, HD is like a community garden that everyone needs to work in to make it successful. Most of us are volunteers when it comes to our contributions here. Having an environment where people feel respected and welcome is key to a healthy balance of participants and perspectives. Certainly some are more “sensitive” than others to negative undertones, but it takes all kinds of people to make a community, and perhaps those people see what others might miss sometimes. I appreciate your thoughts!"
- DrLefty
Read more »

Wrapping It Up

"I feel better finding out I made a mistake with my money, rather than learning someone else made a mistake for me.”  I began doing my own taxes sometime in the 80’s, when I discovered a substantial error made by my CPA. My thinking was, why should I pay a CPA to screw up my taxes, when I can screw them up myself… for free! I think you have shared a great deal of financial wisdom in this post, Ken. "
- Dan Smith
Read more »

Any concern?

"Anyone approaching or in retirement should be practicing wealth defense and that could include some funds outside of the stock market. That’s what experts, including Christine Benz at Morningstar suggest. How much depends upon one’s “sleep number”.  Some suggest 5 years’ worth, others suggest more, others less.  Keep in mind the amount is after calculating expenses and subtracting Social Security and Pension benefits as well as other income. For example, if my annual expenses are $60,000 and my only retirement benefit in retirement is a $23,000 annual SS benefit, I would need to pull $37,000 from my savings and retirement portfolio, each year. 5 years would suggest $185,000 in savings outside of the stock market. What’s the historical evidence? Since 2000, stock market downturns haven’t lasted more than 19.5 years. Some have lasted only 6-7 months. But it can take years for the market to recover and that is what matters. For example, the bear market downturn which began in March 2000 spanned 19.5 months and the market declined 36.77%. However, 10 years later the post down-turn cumulative return was only 20.8%. The October 2007 bear market lasted 14.5 months with a 51.9% decline. Five years later the cumulative return was 136.7%. As I approached retirement, I re-allocated my retirement funds and accumulated “cash”. At retirement I was 70%/30% stocks/bonds-cash. Today I own even fewer stocks/stock funds.  One of the challenges is to manage greed. This can occur as Fear of Missing Out. I’ve read that long bull markets may foster complacency in investors. In 2007 if one was heavily invested in financials, the negative impact was worse than the S&P average. Today, large allocations in tech may also carry additional risk. Another component is just how large the retirement fund is, and how many years it will be required to last. As we progress through our retired years, we may find that our savings are excessive. For someone in that situation, the amount of cash may not be critically important. For example, let’s say I were to run my numbers. Quicken’s Lifetime Planner is a useful tool for this and there are others. I can be sophisticated about this and include a SS benefit reduction if I am concerned about that, or if I am concerned about a “worst case” scenario. In my case, the numbers indicate excessive savings. That implies I could have a larger percentage of stocks, or spend more each year, or reduce savings. Any decision is where managing greed becomes important. "
- normr60189
Read more »

Prepping to Pull the Trigger

"I'm in total agreement with both of those sentences!"
- Dan Smith
Read more »

Debreifing

"Years ago, I was only vaguely aware of IRMAA. I processed a tax return for a married couple, and was able to save them about $1000 by using the Married Filing Separate (MFS) status. Two years later they were hit with the IRMAA premium which was much greater than the $1000 saved on their income tax. I was able to amend the tax returns and secure refunds on the IRMAA charges.  So beware, the reduced income thresholds for IRMAA, when using the MFS filing status, are brutal."
- Dan Smith
Read more »

Social Security Spousal Benefits

"You are welcome Kristine. Seeing Michael's query below shows that the rules can be true one day and change later and that Social Security might not follow-up unless prompted."
- James McGlynn CFA RICP®
Read more »

Treasury Tax Reporting

IF YOU HAVE a Money Market Fund (e.g. VUSXX, VMFXX), Treasury fund (e.g. SGOV), or any other Treasury ETF (e.g. VBIL), you need to know how to report it on your taxes correctly. If you don’t, you are overpaying on your state taxes unknowingly. 

How and why?

These funds hold U.S. Treasury Bills. Treasuries are exempt from state and local taxes. Of course, this only matters if you hold these funds in a taxable brokerage account, which most people do.

The broker sends you a 1099-DIV form, but it’s your responsibility to figure out how to report it on your taxes correctly. By the way, bad tax preparers can miss this sometimes, or if you self-prepare, this may be something you aren't aware of (I hope most of you reading HumbleDollar are familiar with this!)

This is one of those areas where the reporting rules are technically simple, but the execution is where people mess up. The IRS gets their share regardless (since interest is fully taxable at the federal level), but if you don’t adjust properly, your state will too, even when it shouldn’t.

The 1099-DIV doesn’t break out how much of the dividend was allocated to Treasuries. The software also wouldn’t know how much based on the 1099-DIV. This means that you generally have to figure out how to report it (or ensure your CPA does it correctly).

Now, the 1099-DIV will have a breakdown of every single stock/ETF you have, but you have to find out the percentage of a fund that holds Treasuries.

This percentage is not on your brokerage statement. It comes directly from the fund provider (Vanguard, iShares, Schwab, etc), usually buried in their “tax center” or “year-end tax supplement” pages.

Let me give you an actual example.

Say, in 2025, you received $5,000 of dividends from two funds.

Then, if you scroll down, you will see a “Detail Information” of your dividends:

Interest

We can see that $2,456.78 came from Vanguard Federal Money Market fund.

The entire $2,456.78 will be taxed at the federal level, but how do we figure out what’s taxed at the state level?

This is where the extra step comes is.

During the end of the year, the fund manager (e.g Vanguard for VMFXX) will post a “US government source income information” on their Tax page.

This report tells you what portion of the fund’s income is derived from U.S. government obligations (Treasuries), which is the key to the state tax exemption.

VMFXX

We can see that 66.61% of VMFXX holdings for the 2025 tax year were income derived from the U.S. government and, therefore, are not taxable at the state level.

So, we would take $2,456.78 * 0.6661 = $1,636. Of the total, $1,636 is derived from U.S. obligations, and you would only pay state taxes on the remaining ~$819.

That $2,456.78 is still fully taxable federally. This is strictly a state adjustment.

It’s also important to note that some states say "if less than 50% of the fund is from the U.S. government (like Treasury Bills), you can treat it as 0%.”

For example, California, Connecticut, and New York are some of these states. So, if the fund has only 35% coming from the Treasury, you shouldn’t even calculate the exempt amount for these states.

Now, if you buy Treasuries directly from TreasuryDirect, they will send you a 1099-INT, and you can just enter that information directly into the tax software. No extra calculations are needed. That’s because the income is already clearly identified as U.S. government interest, no allocation required.

So, how do you report that dividend interest calculation?

In most tax softwares, after entering the 1099-DIV, it will ask: "Did a portion of dividends came from a U.S. Government interest?'

So, you would just check it off/select and enter the amount from Treasuries ($1,636 in our example).

Behind the scenes, this flows into your state return as a subtraction or adjustment, depending on the state.

Some software might ask for the percentage of dividends that are state tax exempt. However, this is a bit tricky because you might receive other dividends in your brokerage account.

In that case, calculate the amount from the Treasury, say $1,636, and divide it by your total dividend amount (e.g. $5,000)

If you have someone do your taxes and you have some of these Money Market Funds or other Treasury ETFs, double-check your state tax return and see the amounts reported. This will save you some money. It's also not too late to amend your tax return if this was missed.

Specifically, look for a “U.S. government interest subtraction” or similarly labeled line item on your state return. If it’s zero and you held these funds, that’s a red flag.

If you live in a no tax state, this would not apply to you, but still good to know in case you move!

I hope you found this one valuable.

  Bogdan Sheremeta is a licensed CPA based in Illinois with experience at Deloitte and a Fortune 200 multinational.
Read more »

Time to Be Fearful

"Managing my emotions after the Dot-Com bust has made me a much better investor. and, I sleep better at night, too. I'm a firm believer of being prepared for the next downturn as well as a boom market. Purchasing stock sectors that are out of favor is a tried and true, long term approach. When the EV economy was being pushed and subsidized was one such opportunity."
- normr60189
Read more »

Doubt the Forecast

WHEN PAUL EHRLICH'S obituary appeared a few weeks ago, it came and went without much notice. But during his lifetime, he was enormously influential. By training, Ehrlich was a biologist, but he was most well known for his 1968 book, The Population Bomb. It opened with this dire prediction: “The battle to feed all of humanity is over. In the 1970s and 1980s hundreds of millions of people will starve to death.” In his writings and speeches over the years, he reiterated this point in terms that became even more extreme. In 1970, he argued that famine would kill 65 million Americans during the 1980s. And in 1971, he offered this prediction about the U.K.: “If I were a gambler, I would take even money that England will not exist in the year 2000.” It was destined to become “a small group of impoverished islands, inhabited by some 70 million hungry people.” Why did Ehrlich hold these views? Earlier in his career, he had traveled to developing countries and concluded that their population growth was unsustainable. He argued that the world’s population needed to be cut in half and proposed a number of ideas to accomplish that. “The operation will demand many apparently brutal and heartless decisions,” he acknowledged. Of course, none of Ehrlich’s predictions came close to being true, but that didn’t impact his popularity. He made more than 20 appearances on The Tonight Show—so many, in fact, that he was required to join the Screen Actors Guild. And despite Ehrlich’s impressively poor track record over nearly 60 years, The New York Times, in its obituary, still couldn’t criticize. Instead, the paper referred to his apocalyptic predictions as simply being “premature.” What can we learn from this? I see five key lessons for individual investors.
  1. No one can see around corners, and we shouldn’t believe anyone who can claim to be able to. Presumably, there was some scientific basis for Ehrlich’s predictions. The problem, though, was that all of his predictions were based on extrapolation, and he could only extrapolate from the facts available at the time. For example, he had no idea how advances in agriculture would outpace population growth, made possible by technologies like LED bulbs for indoor farming, something that hadn’t yet been invented at the time.
  2. We should be inherently skeptical of extreme predictions. Extreme views aren’t necessarily wrong. After all, extreme things can and have happened. The reason we should be skeptical is because the world is complex. As I noted a few weeks back, it’s possible for an observation to be correct but incomplete. And that was a key flaw in Ehrlich’s thinking.
The formula at the center of his research considered just three variables (population, affluence and technology). But when it comes to most things in the world, the ultimate outcome is dependent on many more variables than that. So someone like Ehrlich might have been accurate with one, or even more than one, of his observations. But at the same time, he was ignoring innumerable other factors, such as public policy decisions.
  1. In a similar vein, we should be wary of stories that sound convincing only because of the way they’re presented. I’ve discussed before the phenomenon of the “single story”—when an overly simplified, one-dimensional version of the facts takes on a life of its own. Later in life, Ehrlich acknowledged that he had benefited from this sort of thing: “The publisher’s choice of The Population Bomb was perfect from a marketing perspective…,” he wrote.
  2. We shouldn’t be too easily impressed by credentials. Despite being almost entirely wrong with his “population bomb” arguments, Ehrlich was a tenured professor at Stanford and received numerous awards. This carries an important lesson: Smart people can veer off course just as much as anyone else. As I’ve noted before, the scientist who invented the lobotomy received the Nobel Prize for his work. We should never blindly accept an argument based solely on its source.
  3. We should be careful of confirmation bias. That’s the emotional tendency to look for evidence that confirms pre-existing beliefs. In Ehrlich’s case, despite all the disconfirming evidence, he never backed down from his views. 
In 1980, economist Julian Simon challenged Ehrlich to a bet. Simon let Ehrlich pick a basket of commodities and wagered that each of them would be less expensive by 1990. For his part, Ehrlich was sure they’d all increase in price due to population pressure. Ten years later, every one of the commodities in the basket turned out to be cheaper, despite the population having grown by 800 million people over the course of the bet. Ehrlich held up his end of the bet, sending Simon a check for $567 in 1990, but he had his wife sign it, and he never acknowledged that he might have been wrong. Indeed, he doubled down. In 2009, Ehrlich commented that, “perhaps the most serious flaw in The Bomb was that it was much too optimistic about the future.” The bottom line: Prognosticators can be convincing and are often entertaining. As investors, our job is to listen with a critical ear.   Adam M. Grossman is the founder of Mayport, a fixed-fee wealth management firm. Sign up for Adam's Daily Ideas email, follow him on X @AdamMGrossman and check out his earlier articles.
Read more »

Free Newsletter

Get Educated

Manifesto

NO. 24: OUR ONLY earthly immortality will be the memories of others. We should make sure those memories are good—by spending our wealth on special times with friends and family.

act

SET UP A HOME equity line of credit. These have lost some of their allure under 2017's tax law, because you can only deduct the interest if it's used to buy, build or substantially improve your home. Still, a HELOC is one of the cheaper ways to borrow, and it could come in handy if you have a financial emergency or as an alternative to education and car loans.

think

ULTIMATUM GAME. A player is given a pot of money and must offer a share to a second player. If the second player rejects the offer, neither gets anything. If the sole litmus test is financial gain, the second player should always accept, because at least he or she gets something. But players often reject small offers—a sign of how much we value fairness.

Truths

NO. 16: WE’RE TOO self-confident. We imagine we’re smarter than other investors and can beat the market averages. This leads us to trade too much, make big investment bets and buy actively managed mutual funds. What if we’re at least partially successful? We may attribute our gains to our own brilliance—leading us to take yet more risk.

My Money Journey

Manifesto

NO. 24: OUR ONLY earthly immortality will be the memories of others. We should make sure those memories are good—by spending our wealth on special times with friends and family.

Spotlight: Cars

Ride of a Lifetime

SAVED A BUNCH of money so you could retire and buy that sporty car you always wanted? My advice: Do it.
In almost 50 years of owning vehicles, I have bought just one car that was almost fully impractical. It had a shallow shelf of a trunk. My wife couldn’t drive it because it had a stick shift. More than a few times, I had to start it by pushing it down a hill,

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Racking Up the Miles

AS AN ENGINEER and a believer in keeping things running, I haven’t owned many automobiles during my lifetime. Instead, my focus has been on extending each one’s longevity.
Among the maintenance and repairs I’ve undertaken: oil changes, spark plug and wire replacements, carburetor cleaning and adjustment, belt and hose replacements, distributor and timing settings, brake replacements (disk and drum), master and slave brake cylinder repairs, clutch adjustment, alternator repair, radiator repair, heater core repair,

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Getting Used

OKINAWA IS A JAPANESE island that is southeast of mainland Japan and about two hours and 40 minutes from Tokyo by plane. It is famous for fierce Second World War battles and currently houses about 26,000 U.S. military personnel. From 2006 to 2008, I was one of these military personnel, working as an emergency physician in the naval hospital.
Okinawa, my new dream come true. Going to Okinawa was not my first choice.

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Getting From A to B

DRIVE A BEATER. That’s what my coworker Neil admonished us to do. He explained that this was a key strategy on the path to financial freedom. Neil, as you might recall from one of my earlier articles, was the colleague who warned about the perils of funding a 401(k) plan.
All you really need is something to get you from point A to point B, Neil said, and consistently spending money on expensive cars simply meant you’d be forced to stay in the workforce longer.

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Just Another Car

ONCE I GRADUATED college and started working fulltime, I knew what my first major purchase would be: a sporty new car. I was jealous of the cars my friends drove in high school. I had just spent four years grinding through an undergraduate engineering program. I was ready to reward myself.
To prepare for the purchase, I minimized my expenses. I shared an apartment with two friends who had also just graduated from college.

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Wheeling Dealing

CAR BUYING CAN BE overwhelming, which partly explains why we held onto our 2002 Toyota RAV for as long as we did. When the time came to part ways, we needed to decide whether the replacement would be new or used, how much we were prepared to pay, the features we wanted and what vehicle would meet all our criteria.
These were relatively easy tasks. While I realized that purchasing a used vehicle made more sense financially,

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Spotlight: Grossman

Deadly Serious

THE MUSICIAN PRINCE died in 2016 at age 57, leaving behind a legacy of musical genius. Unfortunately, he also left behind an ongoing legal and financial mess. The issue: For reasons no one understands, Prince neglected to prepare even the most basic estate plan, leaving potential heirs squabbling over his fortune. Under the latest tax law, passed late last year, only those with more than $11.2 million in assets ($22.4 million for a married couple) are subject to federal estate taxes. Still, you don't have to be a wealthy rock star to need an estate plan. I believe every adult—regardless of net worth—should have at least a basic plan. Here are 10 reasons: 1. State estate taxes. Even if your estate won't top the $11.2 million federal threshold, your state might impose its own estate tax. Eighteen states, in fact, have some type of estate or inheritance tax. In some states, the limit is harmonized with the federal limit, meaning you would only face a state-level tax if your estate met the federal threshold. But in many states, the limit is far lower. In Massachusetts, for example, it's just $1 million. 2. An ever-changing tax regime. While today's $11.2 million federal estate tax exemption is extremely generous, there's no guarantee this generosity will last. While estate tax revenue is virtually meaningless to the federal budget, it's politically symbolic and has seen frequent changes. As recently as 2000, the limit was less than $1 million and the top rate was a hefty 55%, compared with today's 40%. In 2010, on the other hand, there was no estate tax at all. The lesson: Don't conclude that today's estate tax regime is the one that will apply to you. 3. Naming a guardian. Should something happen to both you and your spouse, perhaps the single most important function of…
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Time for a Checkup

AS WE HEAD INTO year-end, many are cheering the financial markets’ returns. The S&P 500 has gained nearly 25% and now sits just a hair below its all-time high. Bonds are also looking more attractive, with yields at 15-year highs. As a result, many investors are feeling a whole lot better about their portfolio balances. That’s certainly one way to measure financial progress, and it’s an important one. But as you make plans for 2024, there are other financial metrics that also deserve your attention. Simplicity. A few years back, MIT professor Andrew Lo co-authored a book titled In Pursuit of the Perfect Portfolio. The punchline of the book: There’s no such thing as the perfect portfolio. Instead, the message is that there are many ways to structure a successful investment plan. What would an ideal portfolio look like to me? It would be so simple it would fit on an index card. It would have just a limited number of holdings—mostly index funds. And it would be so straightforward that you wouldn’t need a spreadsheet or sophisticated analysis to understand it. You could calculate the asset allocation in your head. A simple set of investments makes a portfolio easier to monitor and to manage. And often, it carries two valuable “efficiency” benefits, described below. Tax efficiency. Last year, I described an investor I called Jane who had a curious experience with a mutual fund. Back in the 1990s, Jane had purchased shares in the fund for $19,000 and, a few years ago, sold her holdings for nearly $300,000. It looked like a significant gain, and she expected a large tax bill. But it turned out Jane was able to report a loss on her tax return. Why? The fund had been issuing sizable taxable distributions nearly every year. As…
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Unhelpful Advice

YOU’RE DRIVING DOWN the highway when, all of a sudden, a maniac goes speeding by, weaving in and out of lanes. Most of us have experienced this—and most of us have the same reaction. “That guy is crazy,” we think to ourselves. “If he doesn’t slow down, someone’s going to get hurt.” But suppose that an observer instead responded, “That fellow’s speed is perfectly appropriate. Nothing at all wrong with it.” Now, you might think it’s the observer who’s the crazy one. That, in a nutshell, describes the viewpoint of Eugene Fama, a finance professor who won the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics for his work developing a concept known as the efficient market hypothesis (EMH). If you aren’t familiar with EMH, it postulates that stock prices are rational because they reflect all publicly available information about the underlying company. Supporters of EMH like to point to the case of the Challenger Space Shuttle. In 1986, it suffered a catastrophic failure shortly after launch that killed all seven crew members. Almost instantaneously, investors somehow figured out which of the companies that had worked on the Challenger was most likely at fault—and drove down its stock price. After a monthslong investigation, investors’ instantaneous judgment was proven correct. To EMH adherents, this is a picture-perfect illustration of why, in their view, stock prices accurately reflect each company’s value at any given moment. And this is why Fama is skeptical of stock market bubbles. He allows that sometimes investors make mistakes and the price of isolated stocks get out of whack. But Fama rejects the idea that the broad stock market can ever be characterized as too high. That’s because he believes so strongly in informational efficiency and investor rationality. Now age 81, Fama continues to defend this view, despite the rise of behavioral finance,…
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My Confession

BACK IN 2017, I WROTE about an oddity in my portfolio—an actively managed mutual fund that I bought without much thought to how it fit with my overall financial goals. Today, I have a confession. That fund isn’t the only oddity I own. In the interest of transparency—and because I hope readers will find it instructive—here are five more oddities, plus the thinking behind each: While I firmly believe that low-cost index funds are the best way to build wealth and I believe that stock-picking is a fool’s errand, I own about a dozen individual stocks. While I firmly believe that diversification is critical, one of these stocks accounts for more than 10% of my portfolio. While I believe in the potential for value stocks to outperform—a view I reiterated just six days ago—I don’t have an overweight to value stocks myself. While I despise hybrid stock-bond funds and regularly caution against them, I actually own one of these funds. While I advise against private investment partnerships—because of the high fees and uneven quality—I’ve participated in a handful of such investments. How do I explain these inconsistencies? Don’t I believe my own advice? Am I knowingly violating key investment principles because I think I know better—not unlike investment manager Cliff Asness, who once suggested it was okay for investors to “sin a little”? No, I wholeheartedly believe in the investment principles I advocate and I’m not trying to outsmart them. Here’s how I think about my apparent inconsistencies: 1. Yes, I have a collection of individual stocks, but that paints a misleading picture. The overwhelming majority of my portfolio is in a simple mix of index funds that’s designed to weather the stock market’s ups and downs. That, in my opinion, is the most important thing—to get the big picture right. No portfolio is entirely free of oddities. 2. All…
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Losing It

I REMEMBER SPEAKING with an industry colleague about a company that had been in the news. He told me that he liked the company's stock and, in fact, had bought it for the mutual fund he managed. Then he added, parenthetically, “I owned it, then I sold it, then I bought it back.” This discussion highlights a fundamental challenge for investors: Mutual fund managers face incentives that often diverge from their clients. Specifically, fund managers are graded and compensated for their performance before taxes. But what really matters to fund shareholders is how an investment performs after taxes. Why this mismatch? Why not evaluate fund managers on their true, after-tax returns? There is an explanation: Every individual fund shareholder faces his or her own unique tax treatment. A high-income individual might be in the top tax bracket, while a school or charity might pay no tax at all. Similarly, there are circumstances under which an individual might pay no tax. If you hold a fund in a tax-deferred account, such as a 401(k) or IRA, you aren’t taxed until you take the money out in retirement—and maybe not even then, if the money is in a Roth. In addition, some taxpayers might be in the 0% capital gains tax bracket or might have offsetting tax losses. In all of these situations, taxes wouldn't be a factor, so fund companies have gotten in the habit of largely ignoring taxes. But what if you do care about taxes? If you're like most people, you receive a pile of tax forms each year and simply forward them to your accountant. But it's worth taking the time to understand how your investments are impacting your tax return. According to research firm Morningstar, investors in actively managed stock funds give up approximately 0.75 percentage point of their…
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A Graceful Exit

WHEN STEWART MOTT died in 2008, his obituary in The New York Times described him as offbeat. That’s probably a fair description. Mott’s father, Charles Mott, had been one of the founding shareholders of General Motors. As a result, the younger Mott didn't need to work and instead pursued other passions. Among his many activities, Mott enjoyed political activism, but he wasn’t a strict partisan. To underscore this, he once brought both a live elephant and two donkeys to a fundraiser. He was also an environmentalist. At his home in New York City, Mott converted a penthouse apartment into a garden, complete with a chicken coop and a compost pile. He also spent time living on a junk on the Hudson River. In the Manhattan phone book, he listed his profession simply as “philanthropist.” Mott’s pleasant, charmed life stands in contrast to that of John du Pont. A contemporary from a similarly wealthy family, du Pont’s inheritance led him down a darker path. Like Mott, du Pont was also offbeat. He loved birds, and collected stamps and conch shells. He was a major supporter of amateur wrestling teams. But unlike Mott, he abused his position of privilege. In business meetings, he would often brandish a gun. In 1997, he ended up shooting someone and spent his last years in jail. While these are both unusual cases, they highlight a challenge many families face: how to use their resources to benefit their children without inadvertently leaving them worse off. In theory, we’d all like to help our children succeed in life. But when there’s wealth involved, it can be hard to get it right. There’s no simple formula to guarantee success. Warren Buffett probably said it best: You should leave your children "enough money so that they would feel they could do anything, but not so much…
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