Financial danger sign: You had a will drawn up years ago, so you figure that’s one less thing to worry about.
MY OLD INVESTING self was like the guy in the meme who twists around to ogle a woman in a red dress, while his girlfriend looks ready to break his neck.
Just as jumping from one relationship to another introduces new risks, the same holds true for jumping in and out of different investments. For me—and for most people, I’d wager—investing in individual stocks and narrowly focused funds involves a certain amount of trading, and we know such trading is an exercise in futility. Even the vast majority of professional fund managers can’t consistently beat the market averages. If your reaction to that is, “Yeah, but maybe I can, I’ve got a good handle on the way the world works,” you may need professional help with your portfolio.
Despite ample evidence that most investors trail the market averages, we all tend to “feel lucky,” like the ill-fated villain staring down Clint Eastwood in Dirty Harry. Why? A key reason: Stock market averages get a big boost each year from a minority of stocks that post big gains, and those huge winners make beating the market look easy. So how about buying those big winners? Unfortunately, yesterday’s winners aren’t necessarily tomorrow’s top dogs.
In fact, past performance has no predictive power. It may seem obvious today that we should have bought Facebook, Apple, Netflix, Microsoft, Amazon, Tesla and Google’s parent company Alphabet. But these “obvious” winners only seem that way in hindsight.
On top of our unjustified confidence in our own stock-picking abilities, we have a host of other behavioral faults, including impatience, a desire for quick gratification and the feeling that the grass is always greener somewhere else. Result? In our efforts to beat the market, we flit back and forth among different investments, as our latest stock picks lose their luster.
After taking fliers over the years on gold and energy funds, biotech and telecom stocks, and emerging markets specialty funds that focus on consumer companies, I’ve learned three key lessons:
I came by these lessons the hard way. I would make a new investment and be excited, thinking I’d made a good bet. I’d anticipate my potential gains and the validation that I’d outsmarted the market. I would tell myself I understood the potential downside, but really, I was practically counting my winnings.
But the thrill would soon fade, along with my original investment rationale. Perhaps the idea had come from some legendary portfolio manager or from something I read. But when my new holdings struggled, I lacked a frame of reference by which to decide whether to sell or hold.
A star manager might have said a drug company’s clinical trials were going well or that certain companies were going to gain market share. But then these things didn’t happen, and the stocks underperformed. Was this bad news now fully priced in? It’s nobody’s job on Wall Street to answer that, least of all the managers who touted the investments in the first place, and they probably wouldn’t know anyway.
Another example: About six years ago, I read a series of articles that convinced me that the next big trend was emerging markets consumer spending growth. That prompted me to buy some high-cost niche exchange-traded funds. But the two funds I bought consistently underperformed. One has continued to do so since I sold, while the other folded last May. Again, no one can tell you when or if such performance will turn around. Wall Street gets paid to sell you high-expense funds and keep you in them. Those high fees pay for a lot of research, writing and marketing, which in turn filters its way into the financial press, which then encourages you to buy.
There are two sources of investment risk: systematic risk, which is the danger that the broad market will fall, and unsystematic risk, which is the danger that your particular investments will lag behind the market.
Investors in individual stocks and sector funds face both risks. By contrast, owners of broad stock market index funds face only systematic risk. Indexing lacks the allure of sexy strangers and the prospect of quick investment scores, but the strategy’s risks are also far lower.
Success in broad market-cap-weighted index funds hinges on fewer variables. You just need aggregate share prices—driven ultimately by corporate profit and dividend growth—to rise at well above the rate of inflation, as they have for more than a century in the global stock market, despite two world wars, hyperinflation, stagflation, market crashes, panics and depressions. In other words, with broad stock market index funds, you’re making just one bet—and it’s a pretty good one for globally diversified investors with long time horizons.
William Ehart is a journalist in the Washington, D.C., area. In his spare time, he enjoys writing for beginning and intermediate investors on why they should invest and how simple it can be, despite all the financial noise. Follow Bill on Twitter @BillEhart and check out his earlier articles.
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Ed Marsh is a physical therapist who lives and works in a small community near Atlanta. He likes to spend time with his church, with his family and in his garden thinking about retirement. His favorite question to ask a young person is, “Are you saving for retirement?” Check out Ed’s earlier articles.
Adam M. Grossman is the founder of Mayport, a fixed-fee wealth management firm. Sign up for Adam's Daily Ideas email, follow him on X @AdamMGrossman and check out his earlier articles.NO. 3: WE SHOULD focus relentlessly on what we want from our financial life. That’ll motivate us to save, drive our investment strategy—and help ensure we pursue the goals we care about most.
NO. 69: WE'RE typically happier when we have regular contact with others. Eating at a restaurant or going to a concert is more fun with a companion. Those who are married tend to say they’re happier, while widowhood can devastate happiness. Indeed, a robust social network is associated not only with greater life satisfaction, but also greater longevity.
NO. 6: SAVE WHEN you’re young—and you’ll enjoy big cost savings later. If you salt away money in your 20s and quickly amass a modest nest egg, you won’t just clock decades of investment gains. You can also cut your cost of living by, say, raising your insurance deductibles, borrowing less, and avoiding bank fees for low account balances and bouncing checks.
AIM TO OWE TAXES. Manage your tax withholding and estimated payments so you owe a modest sum each year, rather than receiving a refund. Why? First, you avoid making an interest-free loan to the government and instead can invest the money to earn gains for yourself. Second, if you’re a victim of tax identity theft, there’s no risk you’ll lose money.
NO. 3: WE SHOULD focus relentlessly on what we want from our financial life. That’ll motivate us to save, drive our investment strategy—and help ensure we pursue the goals we care about most.
MY HUSBAND IS the consumer every company should fear. In my last post, I detailed his multi-month research that preceded our recent car purchase. This time, he decided to investigate auto insurance.
The Gecko’s promise to save 15% had hit a nerve. A savings of 15% on a $2,500 annual insurance bill for two cars would be worth the effort. But, of course, being the thorough person that he is, my husband had to check out every other insurance company on the planet.
I recently posted a request for comment about the appropriate amount of umbrella insurance one should have. I was hoping to learn of some formula or rule-of-thumb stating that “if your net worth is $X, you should carry $Y of umbrella coverage.” As far as I can tell, there is no such formula or rule.
Many thanks to those who responded.
Mark Eckman wrote that most insurance companies offer a maximum umbrella of $5 million.
Patrick Brennan’s insurance representative regarded $500,000 of liability coverage on his auto policy and a $1 million umbrella as sufficient for his needs.
I WORKED IN THE investment department of three different insurance companies. But I never had any interest in buying a whole-life insurance policy. I knew term insurance was the best way to get the maximum death benefit for my premium dollars.
Instead, as a mutual fund manager, I was always more interested in investing in the stock market. (That said, I didn’t invest in the first mutual fund I managed. Why not? I didn’t want to pay the 7% “load”—the upfront sales commission.)
But my attitude toward whole-life insurance changed six years ago.
IF YOU’VE EVER RENTED a car, you’ll inevitability have heard the collision damage waiver (CDW) sales pitch. It sounds something like this: “I assume you want us to protect you bumper to bumper on the car, right?”
If you say, “yes, please,” then—for anywhere between $10 and $30 a day—the rental car will be covered for losses due to theft or damage, except for damage to certain portions of the car. Hint: Read the fine print.
I’ve always had a deep fascination with maths, and recently, thanks to my retirement and the freedom of time it’s given me, I’ve been conducting a bit of “self-educating” on the topic of actuarial science. During this process, I discovered a little-known but fascinating historical character named John Graunt.
He was a 17th-century cloth seller from London who had a very strange hobby. Before starting his workday, he liked to study the Bills of Mortality, which were weekly records compiled by parish clerks,
I am sure that we have all been following the current tragedy going on in Los Angeles with the large fires burning there. One of my friends in the insurance industry told me that he had heard from someone in the reinsurance business that the total insured losses from these fires will be more than Twenty Billion Dollars.
So, I have been thinking about how a catastrophe of this magnitude could be financed. In insurance,
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MY OLD INVESTING self was like the guy in the meme who twists around to ogle a woman in a red dress, while his girlfriend looks ready to break his neck.
Just as jumping from one relationship to another introduces new risks, the same holds true for jumping in and out of different investments. For me—and for most people, I’d wager—investing in individual stocks and narrowly focused funds involves a certain amount of trading, and we know such trading is an exercise in futility. Even the vast majority of professional fund managers can’t consistently beat the market averages. If your reaction to that is, “Yeah, but maybe I can, I’ve got a good handle on the way the world works,” you may need professional help with your portfolio.
Despite ample evidence that most investors trail the market averages, we all tend to “feel lucky,” like the ill-fated villain staring down Clint Eastwood in Dirty Harry. Why? A key reason: Stock market averages get a big boost each year from a minority of stocks that post big gains, and those huge winners make beating the market look easy. So how about buying those big winners? Unfortunately, yesterday’s winners aren’t necessarily tomorrow’s top dogs.
In fact, past performance has no predictive power. It may seem obvious today that we should have bought Facebook, Apple, Netflix, Microsoft, Amazon, Tesla and Google’s parent company Alphabet. But these “obvious” winners only seem that way in hindsight.
On top of our unjustified confidence in our own stock-picking abilities, we have a host of other behavioral faults, including impatience, a desire for quick gratification and the feeling that the grass is always greener somewhere else. Result? In our efforts to beat the market, we flit back and forth among different investments, as our latest stock picks lose their luster.
After taking fliers over the years on gold and energy funds, biotech and telecom stocks, and emerging markets specialty funds that focus on consumer companies, I’ve learned three key lessons:
I came by these lessons the hard way. I would make a new investment and be excited, thinking I’d made a good bet. I’d anticipate my potential gains and the validation that I’d outsmarted the market. I would tell myself I understood the potential downside, but really, I was practically counting my winnings.
But the thrill would soon fade, along with my original investment rationale. Perhaps the idea had come from some legendary portfolio manager or from something I read. But when my new holdings struggled, I lacked a frame of reference by which to decide whether to sell or hold.
A star manager might have said a drug company’s clinical trials were going well or that certain companies were going to gain market share. But then these things didn’t happen, and the stocks underperformed. Was this bad news now fully priced in? It’s nobody’s job on Wall Street to answer that, least of all the managers who touted the investments in the first place, and they probably wouldn’t know anyway.
Another example: About six years ago, I read a series of articles that convinced me that the next big trend was emerging markets consumer spending growth. That prompted me to buy some high-cost niche exchange-traded funds. But the two funds I bought consistently underperformed. One has continued to do so since I sold, while the other folded last May. Again, no one can tell you when or if such performance will turn around. Wall Street gets paid to sell you high-expense funds and keep you in them. Those high fees pay for a lot of research, writing and marketing, which in turn filters its way into the financial press, which then encourages you to buy.
There are two sources of investment risk: systematic risk, which is the danger that the broad market will fall, and unsystematic risk, which is the danger that your particular investments will lag behind the market.
Investors in individual stocks and sector funds face both risks. By contrast, owners of broad stock market index funds face only systematic risk. Indexing lacks the allure of sexy strangers and the prospect of quick investment scores, but the strategy’s risks are also far lower.
Success in broad market-cap-weighted index funds hinges on fewer variables. You just need aggregate share prices—driven ultimately by corporate profit and dividend growth—to rise at well above the rate of inflation, as they have for more than a century in the global stock market, despite two world wars, hyperinflation, stagflation, market crashes, panics and depressions. In other words, with broad stock market index funds, you’re making just one bet—and it’s a pretty good one for globally diversified investors with long time horizons.
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