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America Doesn’t Just Do Layoffs. It’s Fallen in Love With Them

"Yes, but companies were much more emphatic than they are now"
- Raghu
Read more »

How to Lose

MY OLD INVESTING self was like the guy in the meme who twists around to ogle a woman in a red dress, while his girlfriend looks ready to break his neck.

Just as jumping from one relationship to another introduces new risks, the same holds true for jumping in and out of different investments. For me—and for most people, I’d wager—investing in individual stocks and narrowly focused funds involves a certain amount of trading, and we know such trading is an exercise in futility. Even the vast majority of professional fund managers can’t consistently beat the market averages. If your reaction to that is, “Yeah, but maybe I can, I’ve got a good handle on the way the world works,” you may need professional help with your portfolio.

Despite ample evidence that most investors trail the market averages, we all tend to “feel lucky,” like the ill-fated villain staring down Clint Eastwood in Dirty Harry. Why? A key reason: Stock market averages get a big boost each year from a minority of stocks that post big gains, and those huge winners make beating the market look easy. So how about buying those big winners? Unfortunately, yesterday’s winners aren’t necessarily tomorrow’s top dogs.

In fact, past performance has no predictive power. It may seem obvious today that we should have bought Facebook, Apple, Netflix, Microsoft, Amazon, Tesla and Google’s parent company Alphabet. But these “obvious” winners only seem that way in hindsight.

On top of our unjustified confidence in our own stock-picking abilities, we have a host of other behavioral faults, including impatience, a desire for quick gratification and the feeling that the grass is always greener somewhere else. Result? In our efforts to beat the market, we flit back and forth among different investments, as our latest stock picks lose their luster.

After taking fliers over the years on gold and energy funds, biotech and telecom stocks, and emerging markets specialty funds that focus on consumer companies, I’ve learned three key lessons:

  • I’m not lucky.
  • I can’t predict world events or the market’s reaction to them.
  • Undiversified investment bets give me a few ways to win big and a lot of ways to lose.

I came by these lessons the hard way. I would make a new investment and be excited, thinking I’d made a good bet. I’d anticipate my potential gains and the validation that I’d outsmarted the market. I would tell myself I understood the potential downside, but really, I was practically counting my winnings.

But the thrill would soon fade, along with my original investment rationale. Perhaps the idea had come from some legendary portfolio manager or from something I read. But when my new holdings struggled, I lacked a frame of reference by which to decide whether to sell or hold.

A star manager might have said a drug company’s clinical trials were going well or that certain companies were going to gain market share. But then these things didn’t happen, and the stocks underperformed. Was this bad news now fully priced in? It’s nobody’s job on Wall Street to answer that, least of all the managers who touted the investments in the first place, and they probably wouldn’t know anyway.

Another example: About six years ago, I read a series of articles that convinced me that the next big trend was emerging markets consumer spending growth. That prompted me to buy some high-cost niche exchange-traded funds. But the two funds I bought consistently underperformed. One has continued to do so since I sold, while the other folded last May. Again, no one can tell you when or if such performance will turn around. Wall Street gets paid to sell you high-expense funds and keep you in them. Those high fees pay for a lot of research, writing and marketing, which in turn filters its way into the financial press, which then encourages you to buy.

There are two sources of investment risk: systematic risk, which is the danger that the broad market will fall, and unsystematic risk, which is the danger that your particular investments will lag behind the market.

Investors in individual stocks and sector funds face both risks. By contrast, owners of broad stock market index funds face only systematic risk. Indexing lacks the allure of sexy strangers and the prospect of quick investment scores, but the strategy’s risks are also far lower.

Success in broad market-cap-weighted index funds hinges on fewer variables. You just need aggregate share prices—driven ultimately by corporate profit and dividend growth—to rise at well above the rate of inflation, as they have for more than a century in the global stock market, despite two world wars, hyperinflation, stagflation, market crashes, panics and depressions. In other words, with broad stock market index funds, you’re making just one bet—and it’s a pretty good one for globally diversified investors with long time horizons.

William Ehart is a journalist in the Washington, D.C., area. In his spare time, he enjoys writing for beginning and intermediate investors on why they should invest and how simple it can be, despite all the financial noise. Follow Bill on Twitter @BillEhart and check out his earlier articles.

[xyz-ihs snippet="Donate"]

Read more »

Medicaid Asset Protection Trusts (MAPTs)

"No, the creditors of the person making the gift, not the recipient. It's called "fraudulent transfer." Somewhat of a legal term of art because it's not "fraud" in the traditional sense. It's considered "fraudulent" as to the creditors of the person making the gift because but for that asset being gifted away the creditors could have reached that asset to be made whole upon default. All states have a fraudulent transfer statute. In Ohio the fraudulent transfer look back period is 4 years after the transfer or 1 year after it could have reasonably been discovered."
- Ben Rodriguez
Read more »

Well That’s A Bummer!

"An estimated 13 million pints of Guinness are consumed worldwide on St. Patrick’s Day alone. That’s a one-day foam frenzy. Beer sales overall jump 174% today, with the U.S. pouring more than 3 million of those pints and spending about $6.9 billion celebrating the holiday.  “Lá Fhéile Pádraig sona duit” is pronounced: law AY-leh PAW-drig SUN-uh gwit. That’s how the Irish say, Happy St. Patrick’s Day. Practice it once before your next Guinness. You’ll be the most impressive person at the bar."
- Olin
Read more »

Questions Matter

"As the late great American philosopher Yogi Berra once said, “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.”"
- David Lancaster
Read more »

Is there any point when a child needs financial help that you feel comfortable saying “not my problem?” 

"Thanks, we do enjoy seeing her move forward in life! The Fit is a great little car. I think she'll hang onto it for a long time. We changed the oil last week - an easy job on this car, and only $35 for oil and filter."
- David Mulligan
Read more »

What happens to Medicare Supplement coverage when moving to a different state?

"You asked for personal experiences. I resided in North Carolina when I became eligible for Medicare. At that time Plan F was an option, providing very good coverage, and I went with it, and chose a nationally-known carrier with decades of experience and good reputation. A few years later, we moved to Florida. No underwriting needed. No change in monthly fee. The transition was seamless. My same NC insurance carrier is still my Medigap policy-holder. The company is well-known throughout the US, including Florida. My advice is to choose the carrier that is highly-rated in both states. I am so glad I decided to pay monthly for a Medigap plan when I became eligible for Medicare. The older I get, the less I would have wanted to deal with extra recordkeeping, pre-approvals, co-pays,and so on. I can choose a specialist recommended by other trustworthy doctors and friends, make an appointment, and easily schedule what I need."
- Chris G
Read more »

Frugal Fitness

AS A PHYSICAL therapist, I’ve spent a large slice of each work day teaching and encouraging patients as they exercise their way to better health. Along with other elements of treatment, each patient pays for a custom exercise program tailored for their specific problem. These are folks looking for a way past the debilitating effects of injury or disease. Even so, many of them find it hard to follow my plea to “do your exercises”. If they struggle to follow the helpful recommendations of a health professional, what about the rest of us? Over the years, I’ve found that most of us have at least an inkling of the health benefits of exercise. Still, like my patients, we often fail to act on that knowledge. Why? Maybe we can find the answer in the list below. Here are five common barriers that I’ve heard keep people idle: 1. No time. I’m sure it’s true. Long commutes, lengthy work days and activity-packed weekends leave little chance to carve-out a few minutes for our physical health. Even in retirement, time can be siphoned-off by the endless list of errands, obligations and leisure pursuits that keep us running. 2. No knowledge. Strange environment. Strange vocabulary. Strange people who seem at ease and know more than us about everything. That’s the challenge facing the novice exerciser stepping into the gym for the first time. It can lead to fear–fear of embarrassment, fear of injury or just fear of feeling lost. 3. No support. Going against the social flow can be painful for the lone exerciser. Choosing to head into the gym, rather than out for pizza and beer with friends can be hard. Or, maybe our spouse thinks exercise time is selfish time. Like exercise, social connections are important for health as well. Ideally, we shouldn’t have to choose one over the other. 4. No money. Let’s face it, gym admission isn’t free, and a home equipment purchase can quickly run into thousands of dollars. That price is no sweat for a fitness aficionado with extra cash who’s hooked on the exercise habit, but what about the newbie? Few people want a gym membership or treadmill gathering dust, reminding them of the resolution they didn’t keep. 5. No energy or motivation. Hectic schedules leave many of us drained and dreaming of a quiet moment to just be still. Other folks find themselves stuck in a sedentary rut, never straying off the path that leads from one seat to the next. For those in either camp, any thought of pumping iron or pounding pavement holds no appeal. That’s my short, anecdotal list of hurdles hindering folks from launching into a new exercise routine. For an in-depth look at more barriers to physical activity for adults over age 70, check out this systematic review of the research literature. Meanwhile, our bodies are missing the movement that keeps them healthy. What to do? Here are five baby steps to help us past the roadblocks listed above: 1. Minutes matter. It’s easy to get hung up on the notion of needing a set routine of exercises performed within a solid block of time. That may be ideal, but it’s not necessary. We can try weaving convenient exercises into the actual fabric of our lives. By the end of our day, a few, short bouts of five to ten minutes each can add up to meaningful progress toward fitness. 2. Study time. The online world abounds with exercise advice. Experts promise results ranging from building a healthy heart to gaining the perfect glutes. The choices can be overwhelming. I recommend starting tiny. The simple routine I’ve included below can help nearly anyone take the first step. 3. New network. I’m not recommending we dump our motionless friends. Still, our moms warned us about spending too much time with the wrong crowd. Think about who in our circle is already doing a little exercise. Maybe they’d like a partner? Or, maybe there’s someone we could recruit with just a little nudge. 4. Frugal fitness. We don’t have to shell out bucks to a gym to get a workout. Any time we move our body against the force of gravity, we’re exercising. With a little thought, we can round up a robust routine of exercises to perform at home with little or no equipment. Read on to find a starter set of exercises for the true beginners among us. This list costs almost no money and just a little time. 5. Finding a cause. Stuck for a stimulus that rouses us to action? Remember, imagination is often stronger than willpower. Letting our thoughts dwell on the end game can often be helpful. Do we want to cut a fine figure? If so, we don’t have to get swimsuit-svelte to claim success. Even a little slimming and toning from exercise can give our normal clothes a nicer fit. How about feeling better? Researchers from Boston University and the University of Massachusetts found that even a low-intensity exercise program can help older adults improve both physical and psychological fitness. And their study doesn’t stand alone. Reams of other research support their findings, and highlight even more benefits from exercise. Still, on some days, the only force that will get us moving is old-fashioned discipline. It’s the same determination that moves most of us reading this to make better financial choices most of the time. No matter what our motivation, nearly all of us can kick off our trek to better health today with the following routine: 1. Wall push-ups. Stand facing a wall at fingertip distance. With arms held straight at shoulder height, place your palms on the wall a little more than shoulder-width apart. Bend your elbows until your nose almost touches the wall. Push back until your elbows are straight. Repeat until you’ve done 10-20 repetitions. When wall push-ups are too easy, progress to push-ups with your hands against a counter. These exercises strengthen the muscles of your chest, shoulders and arms. 2. Shoulder blade squeeze. Sit or stand and place palms together in front of your chest with elbows bent and pointing down toward your feet. Pull your arms apart while keeping your elbows down until you squeeze your shoulder blades together. Do 10-20 repetitions. To progress, add the resistance of an elastic exercise band. This exercise works the muscles of the upper back. 3. Sit to stand. This is a wonderful exercise for buttock and thigh muscles. To begin, sit at the edge of a firm seat. Lean forward from the hips, then stand up without using hands, if possible. Sit down and repeat for 10 or more repetitions. You should stay balanced, with feet in full contact with the floor, during the entire exercise. 4. Calf raises. Stand with your hands on a counter to maintain balance, Rise up on your toes for 20 repetitions to strengthen the muscles on the back of your lower legs. These muscles are important for walking and balance. 5. Easy crunch. Lie on your back on the floor or bed with your knees bent and feet flat on the supporting surface. Slowly curl your trunk forward as you try to touch your knees with your hands, then slowly return to the starting position. Do 10-20 repetitions to strengthen your abdominal muscles, one important part of your muscular “core”. The last five. This exercise requires a decent set of walking or running shoes. Begin by walking out the front door and up the street for five minutes at a brisk pace. Stop and retrace your steps for the return trip back home, for a total of ten minutes of heart-rejuvenating activity. Will this workout ready us to run a marathon or toned-up to star in the senior sports league? No. Could it be better? Probably. Still, nearly every muscle–including the heart–gets a little work. And it may just draw us into a habit that keeps our bodies sturdy enough to enjoy the years ahead. Ed Marsh is a physical therapist who lives and works in a small community near Atlanta. He likes to spend time with his church, with his family and in his garden thinking about retirement. His favorite question to ask a young person is, “Are you saving for retirement?” Check out Ed’s earlier articles.
Read more »

Developing Champions in your Career and Life

"He was a true champion who showed you the right way through his actions. Thank you for sharing."
- Raghu
Read more »

The Anatomy of a Threshold Rebalance: April 2025

"Oh my…I really, really want to be under the care of your doctor!"
- Mark Crothers
Read more »

Economic Trends

LAST WEEK THE government released its monthly employment figures for February. The results weren’t great. Payrolls declined, and unemployment ticked up. These numbers square with other downbeat data, including a recent uptick in bankruptcy filings. Another worry: Oil prices have been rising, a result of the conflict in the Middle East. That’s a concern because it could lead to a reacceleration of inflation. It could also dampen consumer spending because higher gas prices act like a tax on consumers, leaving them with less to spend elsewhere. For these reasons, commentators have started to talk about the possibility of stagflation—a combination of stagnant growth and higher prices. But is that where things are headed? To answer that question, it's worth taking a closer look at two current economic trends. The first is what's been referred to as the K-shaped economy. To understand this idea, imagine a chart plotting the relative standing over time of those with higher incomes and those with lower incomes. Owing to a rising stock market, the shape of the chart for those with higher incomes extends up and to the right. Folks with lower incomes, on the other hand, haven't benefited as much from rising markets, and they've been more affected by higher inflation. So for this group, unfortunately, the shape of the chart is down and to the right. Put the charts together and they form a K. But how will the two legs ultimately affect the economy and the market? At first glance, this K-shaped divide would appear decidedly negative. That’s because lower-income consumers tend to spend a greater proportion of their incomes, so if they’re not doing as well, that can have more of an economic impact. That’s the most obvious conclusion we might draw about a K-shaped economy. But in that kind of economic situation, that likely wouldn’t be the end of the story. Downbeat consumer spending, especially in combination with higher unemployment, would likely lead the Federal Reserve to continue its current round of rate cuts. That, in turn, would help consumers by making everything from mortgages to auto loans to credit card payments less expensive. All things being equal, it would also help the investment markets, owing to the math behind stock valuations. The bottom line: This K-shaped dynamic doesn’t seem great, and probably isn’t great from a societal perspective, but the ultimate financial impact—and the timing of that impact—isn’t certain. The second big economic trend today is the boom in artificial intelligence. That includes the infrastructure build-out, which has been enormous, as well as its productivity impact for users, which is still to be determined. For now, all of the AI-related spending has been positive for the market and for the economy. But what will the ultimate impact be? On that question, there’s a lot more debate. According to one view, AI will meaningfully boost productivity, by giving everyone what amounts to a highly productive assistant, or team of assistants. But there’s no consensus on this. Others believe that AI will replace large numbers of workers and cause widespread unemployment. Which way will things go? This question is harder than it appears. Not only would we need to determine the net effect of AI. We’d also need to determine how those effects net out against all the other economic factors out there, including the K-shaped situation. To choose just one example, tighter immigration controls could lead to higher wages, which could lead to inflation and maybe pressure on corporate profits. The number of factors is almost innumerable. The bottom line: When markets wobble, the standard advice is to avoid overreacting. The reason for that is straightforward: because we can look back at history and see that we’ve managed to get through all past crises, and that the market has always recovered and gone higher. But there’s another reason to avoid reacting too strongly or worrying too much. Where things ultimately go in the economy will always depend on the complicated interplay among all of the factors out there, from AI to the K-shaped economy to the war in the Middle East, and everything else, including things we aren't even currently thinking about. Investors, in other words, should be careful to not focus too narrowly on any one news item because, at any given time, it’s always going to be just one of many factors, and it’s very difficult to know how those factors will all net out, and when.   Adam M. Grossman is the founder of Mayport, a fixed-fee wealth management firm. Sign up for Adam's Daily Ideas email, follow him on X @AdamMGrossman and check out his earlier articles.
Read more »

America Doesn’t Just Do Layoffs. It’s Fallen in Love With Them

"Yes, but companies were much more emphatic than they are now"
- Raghu
Read more »

How to Lose

MY OLD INVESTING self was like the guy in the meme who twists around to ogle a woman in a red dress, while his girlfriend looks ready to break his neck.

Just as jumping from one relationship to another introduces new risks, the same holds true for jumping in and out of different investments. For me—and for most people, I’d wager—investing in individual stocks and narrowly focused funds involves a certain amount of trading, and we know such trading is an exercise in futility. Even the vast majority of professional fund managers can’t consistently beat the market averages. If your reaction to that is, “Yeah, but maybe I can, I’ve got a good handle on the way the world works,” you may need professional help with your portfolio.

Despite ample evidence that most investors trail the market averages, we all tend to “feel lucky,” like the ill-fated villain staring down Clint Eastwood in Dirty Harry. Why? A key reason: Stock market averages get a big boost each year from a minority of stocks that post big gains, and those huge winners make beating the market look easy. So how about buying those big winners? Unfortunately, yesterday’s winners aren’t necessarily tomorrow’s top dogs.

In fact, past performance has no predictive power. It may seem obvious today that we should have bought Facebook, Apple, Netflix, Microsoft, Amazon, Tesla and Google’s parent company Alphabet. But these “obvious” winners only seem that way in hindsight.

On top of our unjustified confidence in our own stock-picking abilities, we have a host of other behavioral faults, including impatience, a desire for quick gratification and the feeling that the grass is always greener somewhere else. Result? In our efforts to beat the market, we flit back and forth among different investments, as our latest stock picks lose their luster.

After taking fliers over the years on gold and energy funds, biotech and telecom stocks, and emerging markets specialty funds that focus on consumer companies, I’ve learned three key lessons:

  • I’m not lucky.
  • I can’t predict world events or the market’s reaction to them.
  • Undiversified investment bets give me a few ways to win big and a lot of ways to lose.

I came by these lessons the hard way. I would make a new investment and be excited, thinking I’d made a good bet. I’d anticipate my potential gains and the validation that I’d outsmarted the market. I would tell myself I understood the potential downside, but really, I was practically counting my winnings.

But the thrill would soon fade, along with my original investment rationale. Perhaps the idea had come from some legendary portfolio manager or from something I read. But when my new holdings struggled, I lacked a frame of reference by which to decide whether to sell or hold.

A star manager might have said a drug company’s clinical trials were going well or that certain companies were going to gain market share. But then these things didn’t happen, and the stocks underperformed. Was this bad news now fully priced in? It’s nobody’s job on Wall Street to answer that, least of all the managers who touted the investments in the first place, and they probably wouldn’t know anyway.

Another example: About six years ago, I read a series of articles that convinced me that the next big trend was emerging markets consumer spending growth. That prompted me to buy some high-cost niche exchange-traded funds. But the two funds I bought consistently underperformed. One has continued to do so since I sold, while the other folded last May. Again, no one can tell you when or if such performance will turn around. Wall Street gets paid to sell you high-expense funds and keep you in them. Those high fees pay for a lot of research, writing and marketing, which in turn filters its way into the financial press, which then encourages you to buy.

There are two sources of investment risk: systematic risk, which is the danger that the broad market will fall, and unsystematic risk, which is the danger that your particular investments will lag behind the market.

Investors in individual stocks and sector funds face both risks. By contrast, owners of broad stock market index funds face only systematic risk. Indexing lacks the allure of sexy strangers and the prospect of quick investment scores, but the strategy’s risks are also far lower.

Success in broad market-cap-weighted index funds hinges on fewer variables. You just need aggregate share prices—driven ultimately by corporate profit and dividend growth—to rise at well above the rate of inflation, as they have for more than a century in the global stock market, despite two world wars, hyperinflation, stagflation, market crashes, panics and depressions. In other words, with broad stock market index funds, you’re making just one bet—and it’s a pretty good one for globally diversified investors with long time horizons.

William Ehart is a journalist in the Washington, D.C., area. In his spare time, he enjoys writing for beginning and intermediate investors on why they should invest and how simple it can be, despite all the financial noise. Follow Bill on Twitter @BillEhart and check out his earlier articles.

[xyz-ihs snippet="Donate"]

Read more »

Medicaid Asset Protection Trusts (MAPTs)

"No, the creditors of the person making the gift, not the recipient. It's called "fraudulent transfer." Somewhat of a legal term of art because it's not "fraud" in the traditional sense. It's considered "fraudulent" as to the creditors of the person making the gift because but for that asset being gifted away the creditors could have reached that asset to be made whole upon default. All states have a fraudulent transfer statute. In Ohio the fraudulent transfer look back period is 4 years after the transfer or 1 year after it could have reasonably been discovered."
- Ben Rodriguez
Read more »

Well That’s A Bummer!

"An estimated 13 million pints of Guinness are consumed worldwide on St. Patrick’s Day alone. That’s a one-day foam frenzy. Beer sales overall jump 174% today, with the U.S. pouring more than 3 million of those pints and spending about $6.9 billion celebrating the holiday.  “Lá Fhéile Pádraig sona duit” is pronounced: law AY-leh PAW-drig SUN-uh gwit. That’s how the Irish say, Happy St. Patrick’s Day. Practice it once before your next Guinness. You’ll be the most impressive person at the bar."
- Olin
Read more »

Questions Matter

"As the late great American philosopher Yogi Berra once said, “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.”"
- David Lancaster
Read more »

Is there any point when a child needs financial help that you feel comfortable saying “not my problem?” 

"Thanks, we do enjoy seeing her move forward in life! The Fit is a great little car. I think she'll hang onto it for a long time. We changed the oil last week - an easy job on this car, and only $35 for oil and filter."
- David Mulligan
Read more »

What happens to Medicare Supplement coverage when moving to a different state?

"You asked for personal experiences. I resided in North Carolina when I became eligible for Medicare. At that time Plan F was an option, providing very good coverage, and I went with it, and chose a nationally-known carrier with decades of experience and good reputation. A few years later, we moved to Florida. No underwriting needed. No change in monthly fee. The transition was seamless. My same NC insurance carrier is still my Medigap policy-holder. The company is well-known throughout the US, including Florida. My advice is to choose the carrier that is highly-rated in both states. I am so glad I decided to pay monthly for a Medigap plan when I became eligible for Medicare. The older I get, the less I would have wanted to deal with extra recordkeeping, pre-approvals, co-pays,and so on. I can choose a specialist recommended by other trustworthy doctors and friends, make an appointment, and easily schedule what I need."
- Chris G
Read more »

Frugal Fitness

AS A PHYSICAL therapist, I’ve spent a large slice of each work day teaching and encouraging patients as they exercise their way to better health. Along with other elements of treatment, each patient pays for a custom exercise program tailored for their specific problem. These are folks looking for a way past the debilitating effects of injury or disease. Even so, many of them find it hard to follow my plea to “do your exercises”. If they struggle to follow the helpful recommendations of a health professional, what about the rest of us? Over the years, I’ve found that most of us have at least an inkling of the health benefits of exercise. Still, like my patients, we often fail to act on that knowledge. Why? Maybe we can find the answer in the list below. Here are five common barriers that I’ve heard keep people idle: 1. No time. I’m sure it’s true. Long commutes, lengthy work days and activity-packed weekends leave little chance to carve-out a few minutes for our physical health. Even in retirement, time can be siphoned-off by the endless list of errands, obligations and leisure pursuits that keep us running. 2. No knowledge. Strange environment. Strange vocabulary. Strange people who seem at ease and know more than us about everything. That’s the challenge facing the novice exerciser stepping into the gym for the first time. It can lead to fear–fear of embarrassment, fear of injury or just fear of feeling lost. 3. No support. Going against the social flow can be painful for the lone exerciser. Choosing to head into the gym, rather than out for pizza and beer with friends can be hard. Or, maybe our spouse thinks exercise time is selfish time. Like exercise, social connections are important for health as well. Ideally, we shouldn’t have to choose one over the other. 4. No money. Let’s face it, gym admission isn’t free, and a home equipment purchase can quickly run into thousands of dollars. That price is no sweat for a fitness aficionado with extra cash who’s hooked on the exercise habit, but what about the newbie? Few people want a gym membership or treadmill gathering dust, reminding them of the resolution they didn’t keep. 5. No energy or motivation. Hectic schedules leave many of us drained and dreaming of a quiet moment to just be still. Other folks find themselves stuck in a sedentary rut, never straying off the path that leads from one seat to the next. For those in either camp, any thought of pumping iron or pounding pavement holds no appeal. That’s my short, anecdotal list of hurdles hindering folks from launching into a new exercise routine. For an in-depth look at more barriers to physical activity for adults over age 70, check out this systematic review of the research literature. Meanwhile, our bodies are missing the movement that keeps them healthy. What to do? Here are five baby steps to help us past the roadblocks listed above: 1. Minutes matter. It’s easy to get hung up on the notion of needing a set routine of exercises performed within a solid block of time. That may be ideal, but it’s not necessary. We can try weaving convenient exercises into the actual fabric of our lives. By the end of our day, a few, short bouts of five to ten minutes each can add up to meaningful progress toward fitness. 2. Study time. The online world abounds with exercise advice. Experts promise results ranging from building a healthy heart to gaining the perfect glutes. The choices can be overwhelming. I recommend starting tiny. The simple routine I’ve included below can help nearly anyone take the first step. 3. New network. I’m not recommending we dump our motionless friends. Still, our moms warned us about spending too much time with the wrong crowd. Think about who in our circle is already doing a little exercise. Maybe they’d like a partner? Or, maybe there’s someone we could recruit with just a little nudge. 4. Frugal fitness. We don’t have to shell out bucks to a gym to get a workout. Any time we move our body against the force of gravity, we’re exercising. With a little thought, we can round up a robust routine of exercises to perform at home with little or no equipment. Read on to find a starter set of exercises for the true beginners among us. This list costs almost no money and just a little time. 5. Finding a cause. Stuck for a stimulus that rouses us to action? Remember, imagination is often stronger than willpower. Letting our thoughts dwell on the end game can often be helpful. Do we want to cut a fine figure? If so, we don’t have to get swimsuit-svelte to claim success. Even a little slimming and toning from exercise can give our normal clothes a nicer fit. How about feeling better? Researchers from Boston University and the University of Massachusetts found that even a low-intensity exercise program can help older adults improve both physical and psychological fitness. And their study doesn’t stand alone. Reams of other research support their findings, and highlight even more benefits from exercise. Still, on some days, the only force that will get us moving is old-fashioned discipline. It’s the same determination that moves most of us reading this to make better financial choices most of the time. No matter what our motivation, nearly all of us can kick off our trek to better health today with the following routine: 1. Wall push-ups. Stand facing a wall at fingertip distance. With arms held straight at shoulder height, place your palms on the wall a little more than shoulder-width apart. Bend your elbows until your nose almost touches the wall. Push back until your elbows are straight. Repeat until you’ve done 10-20 repetitions. When wall push-ups are too easy, progress to push-ups with your hands against a counter. These exercises strengthen the muscles of your chest, shoulders and arms. 2. Shoulder blade squeeze. Sit or stand and place palms together in front of your chest with elbows bent and pointing down toward your feet. Pull your arms apart while keeping your elbows down until you squeeze your shoulder blades together. Do 10-20 repetitions. To progress, add the resistance of an elastic exercise band. This exercise works the muscles of the upper back. 3. Sit to stand. This is a wonderful exercise for buttock and thigh muscles. To begin, sit at the edge of a firm seat. Lean forward from the hips, then stand up without using hands, if possible. Sit down and repeat for 10 or more repetitions. You should stay balanced, with feet in full contact with the floor, during the entire exercise. 4. Calf raises. Stand with your hands on a counter to maintain balance, Rise up on your toes for 20 repetitions to strengthen the muscles on the back of your lower legs. These muscles are important for walking and balance. 5. Easy crunch. Lie on your back on the floor or bed with your knees bent and feet flat on the supporting surface. Slowly curl your trunk forward as you try to touch your knees with your hands, then slowly return to the starting position. Do 10-20 repetitions to strengthen your abdominal muscles, one important part of your muscular “core”. The last five. This exercise requires a decent set of walking or running shoes. Begin by walking out the front door and up the street for five minutes at a brisk pace. Stop and retrace your steps for the return trip back home, for a total of ten minutes of heart-rejuvenating activity. Will this workout ready us to run a marathon or toned-up to star in the senior sports league? No. Could it be better? Probably. Still, nearly every muscle–including the heart–gets a little work. And it may just draw us into a habit that keeps our bodies sturdy enough to enjoy the years ahead. Ed Marsh is a physical therapist who lives and works in a small community near Atlanta. He likes to spend time with his church, with his family and in his garden thinking about retirement. His favorite question to ask a young person is, “Are you saving for retirement?” Check out Ed’s earlier articles.
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Economic Trends

LAST WEEK THE government released its monthly employment figures for February. The results weren’t great. Payrolls declined, and unemployment ticked up. These numbers square with other downbeat data, including a recent uptick in bankruptcy filings. Another worry: Oil prices have been rising, a result of the conflict in the Middle East. That’s a concern because it could lead to a reacceleration of inflation. It could also dampen consumer spending because higher gas prices act like a tax on consumers, leaving them with less to spend elsewhere. For these reasons, commentators have started to talk about the possibility of stagflation—a combination of stagnant growth and higher prices. But is that where things are headed? To answer that question, it's worth taking a closer look at two current economic trends. The first is what's been referred to as the K-shaped economy. To understand this idea, imagine a chart plotting the relative standing over time of those with higher incomes and those with lower incomes. Owing to a rising stock market, the shape of the chart for those with higher incomes extends up and to the right. Folks with lower incomes, on the other hand, haven't benefited as much from rising markets, and they've been more affected by higher inflation. So for this group, unfortunately, the shape of the chart is down and to the right. Put the charts together and they form a K. But how will the two legs ultimately affect the economy and the market? At first glance, this K-shaped divide would appear decidedly negative. That’s because lower-income consumers tend to spend a greater proportion of their incomes, so if they’re not doing as well, that can have more of an economic impact. That’s the most obvious conclusion we might draw about a K-shaped economy. But in that kind of economic situation, that likely wouldn’t be the end of the story. Downbeat consumer spending, especially in combination with higher unemployment, would likely lead the Federal Reserve to continue its current round of rate cuts. That, in turn, would help consumers by making everything from mortgages to auto loans to credit card payments less expensive. All things being equal, it would also help the investment markets, owing to the math behind stock valuations. The bottom line: This K-shaped dynamic doesn’t seem great, and probably isn’t great from a societal perspective, but the ultimate financial impact—and the timing of that impact—isn’t certain. The second big economic trend today is the boom in artificial intelligence. That includes the infrastructure build-out, which has been enormous, as well as its productivity impact for users, which is still to be determined. For now, all of the AI-related spending has been positive for the market and for the economy. But what will the ultimate impact be? On that question, there’s a lot more debate. According to one view, AI will meaningfully boost productivity, by giving everyone what amounts to a highly productive assistant, or team of assistants. But there’s no consensus on this. Others believe that AI will replace large numbers of workers and cause widespread unemployment. Which way will things go? This question is harder than it appears. Not only would we need to determine the net effect of AI. We’d also need to determine how those effects net out against all the other economic factors out there, including the K-shaped situation. To choose just one example, tighter immigration controls could lead to higher wages, which could lead to inflation and maybe pressure on corporate profits. The number of factors is almost innumerable. The bottom line: When markets wobble, the standard advice is to avoid overreacting. The reason for that is straightforward: because we can look back at history and see that we’ve managed to get through all past crises, and that the market has always recovered and gone higher. But there’s another reason to avoid reacting too strongly or worrying too much. Where things ultimately go in the economy will always depend on the complicated interplay among all of the factors out there, from AI to the K-shaped economy to the war in the Middle East, and everything else, including things we aren't even currently thinking about. Investors, in other words, should be careful to not focus too narrowly on any one news item because, at any given time, it’s always going to be just one of many factors, and it’s very difficult to know how those factors will all net out, and when.   Adam M. Grossman is the founder of Mayport, a fixed-fee wealth management firm. Sign up for Adam's Daily Ideas email, follow him on X @AdamMGrossman and check out his earlier articles.
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Manifesto

NO. 3: WE SHOULD focus relentlessly on what we want from our financial life. That’ll motivate us to save, drive our investment strategy—and help ensure we pursue the goals we care about most.

humans

NO. 69: WE'RE typically happier when we have regular contact with others. Eating at a restaurant or going to a concert is more fun with a companion. Those who are married tend to say they’re happier, while widowhood can devastate happiness. Indeed, a robust social network is associated not only with greater life satisfaction, but also greater longevity.

Truths

NO. 6: SAVE WHEN you’re young—and you’ll enjoy big cost savings later. If you salt away money in your 20s and quickly amass a modest nest egg, you won’t just clock decades of investment gains. You can also cut your cost of living by, say, raising your insurance deductibles, borrowing less, and avoiding bank fees for low account balances and bouncing checks.

act

AIM TO OWE TAXES. Manage your tax withholding and estimated payments so you owe a modest sum each year, rather than receiving a refund. Why? First, you avoid making an interest-free loan to the government and instead can invest the money to earn gains for yourself. Second, if you’re a victim of tax identity theft, there’s no risk you’ll lose money.

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Manifesto

NO. 3: WE SHOULD focus relentlessly on what we want from our financial life. That’ll motivate us to save, drive our investment strategy—and help ensure we pursue the goals we care about most.

Spotlight: Insurance

Right Turn

MY HUSBAND IS the consumer every company should fear. In my last post, I detailed his multi-month research that preceded our recent car purchase. This time, he decided to investigate auto insurance.
The Gecko’s promise to save 15% had hit a nerve. A savings of 15% on a $2,500 annual insurance bill for two cars would be worth the effort. But, of course, being the thorough person that he is, my husband had to check out every other insurance company on the planet.

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How Big Is Your Umbrella, Follow-Up

I recently posted a request for comment about the appropriate amount of umbrella insurance one should have. I was hoping to learn of some formula or rule-of-thumb stating that “if your net worth is $X, you should carry $Y of umbrella coverage.” As far as I can tell, there is no such formula or rule.
Many thanks to those who responded.
Mark Eckman wrote that most insurance companies offer a maximum umbrella of $5 million.
Patrick Brennan’s insurance representative regarded $500,000 of liability coverage on his auto policy and a $1 million umbrella as sufficient for his needs.

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Fatten That Policy

I WORKED IN THE investment department of three different insurance companies. But I never had any interest in buying a whole-life insurance policy. I knew term insurance was the best way to get the maximum death benefit for my premium dollars.
Instead, as a mutual fund manager, I was always more interested in investing in the stock market. (That said, I didn’t invest in the first mutual fund I managed. Why not? I didn’t want to pay the 7% “load”—the upfront sales commission.)
But my attitude toward whole-life insurance changed six years ago.

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Rental Car Runaround

IF YOU’VE EVER RENTED a car, you’ll inevitability have heard the collision damage waiver (CDW) sales pitch. It sounds something like this: “I assume you want us to protect you bumper to bumper on the car, right?”
If you say, “yes, please,” then—for anywhere between $10 and $30 a day—the rental car will be covered for losses due to theft or damage, except for damage to certain portions of the car. Hint: Read the fine print.

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The Cloth Seller Who Invented Social Security

I’ve always had a deep fascination with maths, and recently, thanks to my retirement and the freedom of time it’s given me, I’ve been conducting a bit of “self-educating” on the topic of actuarial science. During this process, I discovered a little-known but fascinating historical character named John Graunt.
He was a 17th-century cloth seller from London who had a very strange hobby. Before starting his workday, he liked to study the Bills of Mortality, which were weekly records compiled by parish clerks,

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The $20 Billion Problem

I am sure that we have all been following the current tragedy going on in Los Angeles with the large fires burning there.  One of my friends in the insurance industry told me that he had heard from someone in the reinsurance business that the total insured losses from these fires will be more than Twenty Billion Dollars.  
So, I have been thinking about how a catastrophe of this magnitude could be financed.  In insurance,

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Spotlight: Politakis

Financial wisdom from Jonathan

Great article and tribute about Jonathan in the New York Times. This is a link to it that hopefully you can read without a subscription. https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/23/business/jonathan-clements-wsj-personal-finance.html?unlocked_article_code=1.rk8.3FoY.S-b5ghKuzDQY&smid=url-share
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Pig Butchering

Sounds awful doesn’t it? The Article in the WSJ was so painful to read but it led me to the awareness of how to protect myself and those I love. in the article the problem was the spouse trusted the other spouse who was starting the long road of dementia.  How do you protect your financial well being from something like that? HumbleDollar readers, how do you protect yourselves?  I need your wisdom.
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The future of mail and how it affects finances

Two news items caught my attention today that I wanted to share. One is that the postal service of Denmark has stopped door to door delivery of letters due to the digitization of communications in that country. you would need to hire a private company to process mailing of a letter. The second is that the US post office will not guarantee the date a piece of mail is postmarked.  According to the article I read, the postmark date will be the date the letter is processed which could be days after it is dropped off. This will affect tax returns and vote by mail ballots which in some states need to be counted depending on deadlines and the postmark date. It will also affect responses to various financial transactions that have due dates and rely on postmark dates. I wanted to know how HD readers are dealing with these changes and what do you think the future of mail is in our country.
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What could save Social Security and Medicare or bring it closer to insolvency

For those HD readers that want to know about the future of two of our biggest entitlement programs. A new study from the Cato Institute about who pays more in Social Security and Medicare taxes  than actually receives in benefits that has resulted in a $1.7 trillion benefit to those two programs.  Listen or read the piece on Markeplace. https://www.marketplace.org/story/2026/02/23/immigrants-reduce-deficits-study-shows
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Scams part 2

I posted a link earlier today about a scam perpetrated on a retired attorney in an article in the New York Times. So here is another article from the Washington Post on how your info can be stolen from one of the credit bureaus, TransUnion. This is scary as well. Here is a free link: https://wapo.st/4pZzLcm    
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The bond market

Have HD readers lost their faith in the bond market after the last few days of declines in bonds?
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