Six Lessons
John Lim | Mar 17, 2020
“WHAT CHANGES HAVE you made to your portfolio during this market decline?” That was the article request I received from HumbleDollar’s editor. Initially, I had reservations about taking on the assignment, afraid that my story would be misinterpreted as giving financial advice. What follows isn’t financial advice, but rather a highly personal account of one investor’s approach. I’ve been quite cautious for the past few years. Written into my investment policy statement is Benjamin Graham’s advice to have between 25% and 75% of one’s portfolio in stocks. I’ve had close to 25% in stocks for the past few years. Confession: I allowed my stock allocation to drop to 19% in mid-February, an all-time low for my investing career. Lesson No. 1: Following an investment policy statement is sometimes easier said than done. Last year, I learned just how powerful a force FOMO—fear of missing out—really is. Having a very conservative asset allocation during 2019, when we saw 30%-plus stock market returns, was less than satisfying, to say the least. While I believed that my conservative positioning was prudent, given the numerous risks that I saw, that hardly made it easier to stay the course when the stock market was hitting new highs almost weekly. Doubts began to creep into my head. Lesson No. 2: FOMO makes it hard to stay the course in protracted bull markets. With that backdrop, what am I doing now in the midst of the first bear market in more than a decade? I have a plan in place to buy back into the stock market. That plan involves putting cash to work at designated thresholds below the S&P 500’s Feb. 19 all-time high of 3386. Those thresholds are set at down 20%, 25%, 30% and so forth, until the “doomsday” scenario of down 70%, which would…
Read more » Grab the Roadmap
John Lim | Dec 6, 2018
FINANCIAL SECURITY is within your reach. Don’t believe me? Here’s a roadmap that demonstrates it’s possible for most Americans. Sam is a 22-year-old college graduate. He begins working right after college, earning $50,000 a year. He saves 20% of his income the first year, equal to $10,000. Each year, he gets a 2% raise. This raise is over and above inflation, which we’ll assume is zero to keep things simple. In addition to saving $10,000 a year, he takes half his annual raise and also socks that away. For example, in his second year on the job, his salary increases from $50,000 to $51,000. He takes half the raise, or $500, and adds that to his annual savings of $10,000, so he saves $10,500. He continues in this manner year after year. Since he’s saving half of each year’s raise, his savings rate slowly increases, reaching 25% at age 32 and 30% at age 43. Sam also consistently invests his savings, getting a long-term average annual return of 6.2%. More on that number later. Meanwhile, Sam’s standard of living isn’t stagnant. His annual spending rises from $40,000 right after college to $50,000 by age 40 to a little over $60,000 by age 53. What’s happening to his nest egg? By age 49, Sam has become a millionaire. The year before he became a millionaire, Sam’s cost of living was $56,000. That means, if he retired at 49 and wanted to maintain his current standard of living, he would need to draw 5.6% from his nest egg. Sam is a conservative guy and thinks 5.6% is too high. Maybe he could swap to a less stressful job with more time off, taking a 50% pay cut in the process. Since he made $82,000 the previous year, a 50% pay cut would…
Read more » Tale of the Tape
John Lim | Jan 20, 2022
MY PORTFOLIO GAINED some 4% in 2021. While I certainly didn’t expect to match the S&P 500’s impressive 28.6% performance, I was surprised at how low my return actually was. This surprise is a lesson unto itself: We often overestimate our own performance. There’s a number of reasons for my portfolio’s middling returns. First, I began 2021 with my stock allocation at around 40%. Bonds, cash, and gold and gold mining companies rounded out the rest of my portfolio. These other asset classes had poor returns last year, including -1.9% for bonds to -4.2% for gold. On top of that, I have an unusually low allocation to U.S. stocks, which had a banner year in 2021. My stock allocation tilts strongly international, with an outsized allocation to emerging markets stocks. Emerging markets woefully underperformed last year, as this chart illustrates. In fact, had it not been for the two individual stocks I own, my portfolio’s performance would have been even worse. Wells Fargo (symbol: WFC) and TotalEnergies (TTE) had a great 2021. Still, there are five reasons I don’t fret about underperforming the S&P 500 in 2021 and why you shouldn’t, either: 1. The S&P 500 is not my benchmark (not even close). Unless you’re 100% invested in U.S. large-cap stocks, the S&P 500 is, at best, an arbitrary benchmark and, at worst, irrelevant. If you feel compelled to measure your relative performance—certainly not an imperative, as I discuss below—what's a more relevant benchmark? I used my end-of-year asset allocation to create a blended benchmark, using exchange-traded funds to measure asset class performance for 2021. The results are summarized below: The 2021 return of this portfolio was 6.1%, two percentage points higher than my 4% gain. As my asset allocation varied over the course of 2021—with progressively more in stocks—the benchmark…
Read more » Hard to Follow
John Lim | May 21, 2022
"BUY LOW, SELL HIGH." This is probably the most famous investment adage. It sounds so simple and commonsensical—a sure path to success. Like so many investing truisms, however, following it is easier said than done. For one thing, how do we really know when we’re buying low? When it comes to a pair of jeans or a laptop computer, we have a good sense of value. When they go on sale, we snap them up without hesitation. It isn’t as clear with stocks. The intrinsic value of a stock depends on its earnings and dividend payments extending far into the future. Almost by definition, we can’t know these with any certainty. The price the market assigns to future earnings is in constant flux depending on prevailing interest rates and the vagaries of animal spirits. Suppose for a moment that stocks did come with price tags indicating their intrinsic value. What would be the result? Trading would grind to a near halt. After all, who would sell a stock for less than its true value or buy one for more? The lack of clarity around what constitutes a high or low price is what drives markets. As thousands of investors cast their votes daily, with every trade that they make, it’s assumed that stock prices will converge around their intrinsic value. That, at least, is the notion behind the Efficient Market Hypothesis. Prices, it’s believed, reflect the wisdom of the crowd. But crowds can sometimes behave more like herds, subject to stampedes of collective optimism or pessimism. These are reinforced by our natural attraction to compelling narratives, stories that help us make sense of reality. We’re also creatures of momentum, expecting the future to mirror the recent past. These forces are powerful and can conspire to drive stock prices far above…
Read more » Looking Further
John Lim | Aug 1, 2021
IN MID-MARCH 2020, a friend and I were anxiously discussing the financial ramifications of the evolving pandemic. I posited the following question to him: Suppose the stock exchanges announced that they’d be shutting down for six months, starting the day after tomorrow. What do you think would happen to the stock market on its final trading day before closing? Answering my own rhetorical question, I said it wouldn’t surprise me if markets paradoxically staged a huge rally—upward of 20%—the day before shutting down. Why? I reckoned market participants would be forced to look ahead 12 to 18 months, by which time COVID-19 would be more or less contained. Many investors were flummoxed by the stock market’s violent rally off the March 2020 bottom. But they shouldn’t have been. We know that financial markets are by nature forward-looking. The stock market today reflects the state of business and the economy six to 12 months into the future. Suppose my thought experiment had become reality—and financial markets had shuttered in March 2020. By the time they reopened six months later, in September 2020, stock prices would reflect financial conditions in 2021 or even early 2022, when the economy would likely be on the mend. But instead of waiting for markets to reopen in September, investors would have acted immediately by bidding up share prices to reflect this expected economic rebound. Such is the nature of efficient markets. Of course, we’ll never know the answer to my thought experiment. Markets didn’t close down. But here’s my point: Looking further into the future than most investors are willing to do is the essence of being a successful, long-term investor. This doesn’t mean having stock market clairvoyance. But it does mean looking beyond present-day turmoil and heeding the proverb, “This too shall pass.”
Read more » 12 Investment Sins
John Lim | Jan 15, 2020
WANT TO IMPROVE your investment results? The deadly sins below are not only among the most serious financial transgressions, but also they’re among the most common. I firmly believe that, if you eradicate these 12 sins from your financial life, you’ll have a better-performing portfolio. 1. Pride: Thinking you can beat the market by picking individual stocks, selecting actively managed funds or timing the market. Antidote: Humility. By humbly accepting “average” returns through low-cost index funds, you will—paradoxically—outperform the majority of investors. 2. Greed: Having an overly aggressive asset allocation. Antidote: Moderation. Follow the great Benjamin Graham’s advice and keep no more than 75% of your portfolio in stocks. Once you determine your asset allocation, doggedly maintain it through thick and thin by rebalancing periodically. 3. Lust: Being addicted to financial pornography. Financial pornography—think CNBC and Fox Business—may be entertaining, but it has no lasting value and is actually harmful to your financial health by promoting short-termism. Antidote: Turn off financial media and delete financial apps from your smartphone. 4. Envy: Chasing performance. This sin trips up more investors than any other. It ultimately leads to the cardinal sin of “buying high and selling low.” Antidote: Stop comparing your investment performance to that of others. Success is not measured by relative performance, but by whether you meet your own financial goals. 5. Gluttony: Failing to save. You may be a financial saint in every other respect, but—if you fail to save—it’s game over. You can’t invest what you haven’t saved. Antidote: Start saving something today. Slowly raise your savings rate over time. 6. Impatience: Lacking investing stamina has dire consequences. Patience in financial markets is measured in years, sometimes decades. The first decade of the 21st century was not kind to U.S. stock investors, who lost a cumulative 9%. If…
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