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On Being a “Healthy” Person

"I had my ApoB checked three weeks ago along with my Lp(a). It’s 64, which is very good. I’m guessing having been on a statin since the end of June helped with that, along with lowering my LDL from 117 in June to 67 in August."
- DrLefty
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Growing Up In A Big House

"David, Mrs. Lancaster truly lived through some lean times. I’m curious, had anyone else in the family gone beyond high school before your wife decided on technical college? What motivated her to continue her studies. "
- DAN SMITH
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Free Breakfast

"Linda, one shootout happened when police showed up to arrest a suspect hiding at the hotel, in order to avoid the arrest warrant."
- DAN SMITH
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The $5,000 Thought Experiment

"Dick, good analogy! Makes me wonder what our fictional households would do if they had a personal money-printing press to inflate away the debt."
- Mark Crothers
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Financial Fraud

RECENTLY, A FELLOW—let’s call him Tom—contacted me with a distressing story of financial fraud. I’ll describe what happened then review steps you might take to prevent this same sort of thing. Tom first noticed there might be a problem when he spotted a larger-than-average withdrawal from his checking account. The payee was a 529 college savings plan. But because Tom and his wife—let’s call her Jane—have 529 accounts for their children, the transaction almost went unnoticed. Tom assumed it was a transfer into his own family’s account. But when he mentioned it to Jane, she noted that they had stopped contributing to their 529. That prompted them to investigate further. What they found was that scammers had set up a new 529 account in Tom’s name. They then initiated an electronic funds transfer to move more than $2,000 from Tom and Jane’s checking account into the new 529 set up by the thieves. The intention presumably was to then withdraw the funds from the 529, at which point the theft would become unrecoverable. How were the thieves able to initiate the transfer from Tom and Jane’s bank? This is the part that’s distressing: They took advantage of the widely-used Automated Clearing House (ACH) system. Unfortunately, this system has key weaknesses that make it susceptible to fraud like this. First, it allows funds to be “pulled” out of an account. That’s in contrast to a wire transfer, which can only be “pushed” out by someone with access to the account. So a thief would only need your name, account number and bank routing number to siphon funds from that account. And unfortunately, that information is printed on the front of every check, making it accessible to someone looking to perpetrate this type of scheme. Once the thief had the new 529 account set up in Tom’s name, it was just one simple step to initiate a transfer from Tom and Jane’s bank since the accountholder’s name was the same on both accounts. It was so seamless that if Tom hadn’t been reviewing the transactions in his account, he might never have noticed the theft. According to the FBI, losses due to cybercrime have increased from $1 billion per year to $21 billion over the past 10 years, and ACH theft is a tactic thieves are using more frequently, so it’s worth looking at strategies to help keep your accounts secure. Here are six recommendations.
  1. Secure the login to your bank account by setting up two-factor authentication. And if your bank supports it, use an authenticator app, rather than text messages, for the authentication codes. Ideally, if your bank supports it, switch to a passkey. This is a newer technology that represents a significant advance over traditional passwords. Most importantly, they aren’t vulnerable to phishing attacks. They’re also easier to use, providing one-click logins, and you can store passkeys in a password manager. For those reasons, more websites are beginning to support passkeys. I’d make the switch as soon as your bank makes them available.
  2. Set up alerts through your bank to monitor activity in your checking account. Every bank is different, but most allow you to set up email- or text-based alerts to let you know when transactions above a specified threshold are processed, or when other types of activity occur.
  3. Monitor your transactions. These days, it can be hard to keep an eye on every account. Households often have one or more bank accounts plus credit cards and electronic payment services like Venmo or Zelle. Most people realistically don’t have the time to review every account in real time. That’s why I recommend a service like Monarch or YNAB, which are web-based versions of traditional budgeting tools like Quicken. These services can pull in transactions from all your accounts and present them in a consolidated list, making review much easier. If you kept Monarch or YNAB open in a browser window on your home computer, you could scroll through recent transactions whenever you have a spare minute.
  4. To narrow the circle of people who have access to your account information, try limiting the number of paper checks you write. Especially with Zelle and Venmo as alternatives for making payments, this is getting easier. If you do write paper checks, be sure to use a gel pen and to avoid freestanding mailboxes. Those steps can help prevent a related type of fraud, as Jonathan Clements explained a few years back.
  5. Pay attention to notifications of data breaches. Unfortunately, breach announcements seem to occur so frequently that we’ve become immune to them. It’s worth paying attention, though, to understand which particular pieces of information have been stolen. If it looks like your banking information is included in a breach, it might be worth opening a new account, inconvenient as that would be.
  6. Have your guard up against unsolicited phone calls, emails or text messages. If someone is contacting you about an “account security issue,” or claims to be calling from your bank or from the IRS, be especially wary. Those are common tactics for creating a sense of urgency that can cause people to let their guard down.
What if, like Tom and Jane, you spot a fraudulent transaction in your account? Then it’s important to report it as quickly as possible. Regulation E can limit your liability, but the faster you report a suspicious transaction, the more protection it provides. Liability is limited to just $50 if a theft is reported within two business days, but that exposure increases to $500 if it’s reported later. And after 60 days, there are no guarantees. Thieves, unfortunately, don’t seem to sleep, which means that we need to be more vigilant than in the past, and need to be continuously vigilant. As personal finance author Mike Piper wrote recently, “Cybersecurity should be considered another core area of personal finance—no different from insurance planning, for instance.” Adam M. Grossman is the founder of Mayport, a fixed-fee wealth management firm. Sign up for Adam's Daily Ideas email, follow him on X @AdamMGrossman and check out his earlier articles.
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Inflation Hedge

THE OPEN KITCHEN restaurant has been a fixture in Charlotte, North Carolina for 75 years. The restaurant has an old-time feel, with memorabilia, including menus from years gone by, lining its walls. Those old menus provided David Enna, a financial journalist, with a laboratory for examining the effects of inflation. What did Enna find? The oldest menu on display is from 1963. To state the obvious, today’s prices make those from the 1960s look quaint. Back then, spaghetti and meatballs cost just $1.10. Today, it’s $15.50. But, as Enna points out, that was more than 60 years ago, so increases are to be expected. Over the past 60 years, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) has averaged 3.8% per year. That isn’t unreasonable, especially since that average includes the 1970s, when inflation sometimes topped 10%. What’s of more concern, though, is what consumers have experienced more recently. Since 2020, prices across the economy have risen 29%. And though those increases have slowed, the Fed is still struggling to ratchet inflation back to its preferred 2% level. This has given investors renewed interest in strategies to defend against inflation. At first glance, this doesn’t seem like it should be such a difficult problem. The U.S. Treasury offers an investment specifically designed for this purpose: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS). These are bonds that are guaranteed by the federal government to increase in value with inflation. And though I hesitate to use the words “bond” and “exciting” in the same sentence, today many investors are finding the return on TIPS compelling. The 30-year TIPS is now paying close to 3% on top of inflation. If inflation averages 2.5%, for example, over the next 30 years, this bond will end up returning a total of 5.5% per year, and with minimal risk. That sounds good in theory, but do these bonds make sense for your portfolio? It’s worth taking a closer look. The first thing to note is that this seemingly attractive 3% yield only applies to 30-year TIPS. Yields on shorter-term bonds are lower. So unless your investment horizon happens to be exactly 30 years, these bonds may be of limited practical value. Putting aside the yield question, though, a more fundamental challenge with individual TIPS—and individual bonds in general—is that they’re a cumbersome way to build a portfolio. Even if you didn’t mind the process of buying bonds one by one, which can be tedious, there’s the fact that it’s hard for most people to be able to forecast their cash flow needs each year into the future. That’s a problem because choosing maturity dates is the foundation on which bond portfolios are built. Ideally, if you can align the maturity dates of the bonds in your portfolio with your future cash needs, then you can hold bonds to maturity, which is when the issuer would promise to pay you back in full. But that redemption value is guaranteed only at maturity. Buy a 20-year bond and sell it after just 10 years, and there are no guarantees. A bondholder could easily lose money selling an individual bond before maturity. Given these challenges, would a TIPS fund be a better choice? To be sure, bond funds are much simpler to purchase and to manage, but they typically offer even less protection from losses than individual bonds. Most recently, shareholders in TIPS funds were disappointed by how they performed in 2022, when inflation spiked to 9%. Investors expected that to be the year when TIPS rewarded investors, but instead, diversified TIPS funds such as the Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities Fund (ticker: VAIPX) lost nearly 12%. Why did funds like this fare so poorly when inflation was running so high? The problem is that, at the end of the day, TIPS are still bonds. And though they receive a bump in value when inflation rises, a countervailing force is that they lose value when interest rates rise. In 2022, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates aggressively to fight inflation. The negative impact from those rate increases far outweighed the benefit TIPS received from inflation being higher. That puts investors in a difficult position. If TIPS provide inflation protection in theory, but both individual TIPS and TIPS funds carry limitations, what other options are there? The good news is that not all TIPS funds are the same. Some hold only short-term bonds, and they have historically held up much better than more broadly diversified TIPS funds because short-term bonds are more resilient when interest rates rise. Over the past five years, a fund like Vanguard’s Short-Term Inflation-Protected Securities ETF (ticker: VTIP) has outperformed a comparable fund (ticker: VGSH) holding standard short-term Treasury bonds every year, as well as this year to-date. It’s important to note, though, that this is relative performance. In 2022, when the entire bond market was under pressure, even short-term TIPS funds like VTIP did still lose money. They just lost less than funds holding conventional bonds. The bottom line: We should never become too wedded to any one strategy. No investment can promise reliable and complete protection against inflation in every market scenario. That said, I do still recommend TIPS and would specifically recommend a short-term fund like VTIP. But I also suggest taking a diversified approach to inflation protection. Here are other steps to consider. If you’re in your 60s and considering when to claim Social Security, that decision offers a powerful lever. Because Social Security benefits increase with inflation and also increase with each year you delay claiming, it’s maybe the most effective way to build additional inflation protection into your plan. What else can you do? Fortunately, you may already own one of the most effective—and underappreciated—inflation-fighting instruments: stocks. While rising prices in recent years have been frustrating for consumers, the result has been that companies have been able to maintain their profit margins. That, in turn, has helped to support their stock prices through this period of inflation. To be sure, some companies have more of an ability to raise prices than others, but overall, stocks are, in my view, a good way to keep pace with inflation. The one thing I wouldn’t do is to buy gold. Despite its reputation, various studies have confirmed that gold really isn’t a reliable inflation hedge. In a paper titled “The Golden Dilemma,” researchers wrote: “Over practical investment horizons, gold is an unreliable inflation hedge,” though they acknowledge that it may be more reliable over longer timeframes—“if the investment horizon is measured in centuries.”   Adam M. Grossman is the founder of Mayport, a fixed-fee wealth management firm. Sign up for Adam's Daily Ideas email, follow him on X @AdamMGrossman and check out his earlier articles.  
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Taking It With You

DEEP DOWN INSIDE, I want to be the richest person in the graveyard.  I retired at age 62, confident in our financial plan to survive market fluctuations. We saved over 25% of our income for nearly three decades. Perhaps a bit too much, but we lived well and always had sufficient funds to raise a family, maintain our household, and put our children through postgraduate education. If anything, our retirement spending level is conservative, based on a 40 year time frame for both my wife and I. We have a slightly nuanced financial plan. Suffice to say it is reassuring to know that we are beyond financial security if we simply maintain an inflation adjusted 4% withdrawal rate. Indeed, calculations suggested we could double our pre-retirement budget, with no worries or loss of sleep. Risk be damned! Slowly, we made a conscious decision to spend more. At first it was tough to break old habits. I mean, frugality runs deep in my immediate family. You could use my brother and I as chromosomal templates in a genetic search to discover the frugality gene.  My wife and I now go out for coffee without blinking an eye at paying nearly 6 bucks for a cup of Joe (plus tip). We don’t hesitate to escape the Houston heat by scarfing 5 dollar a scoop ice cream. We no longer plan our restaurant outings according to Happy Hour schedules or local senior discounts.  Even so, three years into retirement, our annual spending remains well below what our financial plan says we can safely afford.  Time to up the ante. We bought season tickets to the symphony and added a dinner date before the performance. We took international vacations twice a year, exploring new countries and cultures. We drove to national parks and treated ourselves to overnights in hotels instead of motels. We gifted our children, with hopes they would bolster their own long-term savings. Gosh, we even made significant charitable gifts to institutions we only previously dreamed of supporting.  Spending is easy. Spending wisely is a challenge. Ironically, the strong stock market since our retirement has made it remarkably difficult to spend our money as initially planned. It sounds counter intuitive, but let me explain.  Our retirement portfolio allocation has a stock to bond ratio of 75:25.  The stock component primarily matches total market returns. Specifically, our stock component has grown more than 65% since we retired. Because of this, we put aside 10 years of safer funds (bonds and cash equivalents) to weather any potential market storm. We successfully navigated the immediate sequence of return risk (SORR) hurdle, that pesky danger of facing a poor investment market performance in earliest years of retirement.  We feel both blessed and safe. We sleep well at night. Our financial calculators now indicate that we can spend even more than original predictions. Yet that realization is causing me angst. After all, we spent a lifetime saving, scrimping and sacrificing to reach this point. Indeed, we value the concepts of avoiding excess, of seeking value and purpose in purchases. Our goals were never to impress the neighbors, but rather be content and grateful with what we have.   I want people to know I had a choice about how I spent my accumulated dollars. I chose a life of frugality, questioning everything I purchased. Do I really need that new phone? My current one makes calls, surfs the web, and navigates when I need directions.  Do I need a new car? My dented 11 year old Honda gets me safely to my destinations. Shall I purchase the kayak I’ve been eyeing, or simply rent one for the two times a year I brave the waters?  Perhaps the real measure of a successful retirement is not how much money remains at the end, but whether those resources were used in ways that enriched the lives of others and brought meaning to our own. Financial independence now gives us choices, and a freedom after decades of disciplined saving. It is okay if I leave this world with more than enough funds still in the bank. There are values I learned along the way; those of prudence, generosity, gratitude, and the quiet confidence that comes from living well below one's means. In the end, wealth is simply a tool; character is the true legacy. Perhaps the goal isn't to die with the largest portfolio, but to know that every dollar reflected the values by which we chose to live. Therefore, if I can’t spend it all according to my values, I guess I’m okay with being the one of the richest men in the graveyard.  Jeffrey K. Actor, PhD, was a professor at a major medical school in Houston for more than 25 years, serving as an academic researcher with interests in how immune responses function to fight pathogenic diseases. Jeff’s retirement goals are to write short science fiction stories, volunteer in the community and spend time in his garden. Check out his earlier articles.
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Remembering Jonathan

"Thank you, that is incredibly kind. Writing has become one of the ways I keep Jonathan close. If something of him lives on through my words, that means more to me than I can express."
- Andrew Clements
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Locking it in

"Thanks Howard. I love the term "non-plan plan". Agreed with your take on luck - I will gladly confess that a whole lot of where we are at is due to our incredible good fortune."
- greg_j_tomamichel
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Continuing Care

I EXPECTED TO SPEND early 2017 blogging about my fourth round-the-world trip, which I’d just completed, and planning my next journey. Instead, I spent much of the year on the couch with a heating pad, in between assorted medical appointments, everything from acupuncture to meeting with an infectious disease specialist.

Eventually, I got a definitive diagnosis—I had a form of rheumatoid arthritis—and, in early 2018, an effective medication. But I had been forcibly reminded of something I’d first learned 10 years earlier, when I broke my ankle. My house, as things currently stood, was not suitable for aging in place.

But was aging in place a good idea? During 2017, I learned just how debilitating persistent pain could be. I was 70, single (by choice), childless (by choice) and with no close relatives nearer than England. I already had a chronic, potentially disabling disease. What if I suffered a stroke or heart attack, or fell and broke a hip, or developed dementia? At a moment when I was least able to handle the decision, I’d have to find and fund in-home care, or move to an assisted living or skilled nursing facility.

In addition, I was thoroughly tired of the responsibility and cost of maintaining my house, not to mention preparing all my meals. Those of you thinking that your spouse could handle such things should bear in mind that, at some point, one of you will be a surviving spouse. Even if you have children close by, do you really want to burden them with your care?

I had friends living happily in continuing care retirement communities, and there were a number of CCRCs nearby. A CCRC typically offers a continuum of care from independent living to assisted living to skilled nursing. It was time to do my research. Ruth Alvarez's guide to CCRCs proved invaluable. HumbleDollar readers can also get a good introduction to the four types of CCRC by reading Howard Rohleder’s 2022 article.

For me, the choice of type was straightforward. I wanted a place that promised not to throw me out if I ran out of money and preferably backed that promise with a benevolent fund. I wanted a nonprofit, because a good for-profit might too easily be taken over by a bad one. I wanted on-site assisted living and skilled nursing, which is pretty standard among CCRCs. I wanted a place that accepted Medicare and Medicaid, and had a good rating. I wanted a place that had been open for a while and had sound financials. And I wanted an on-site clinic, exercise facilities and plenty of activities. I started collecting brochures.

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If a CCRC is regulated, it’s regulated by the state government. North Carolina requires CCRCs to give prospective residents a detailed financial and policy disclosure statement, and also post these documents online. That's how I learned that one potential CCRC didn't own its land and buildings, and another appeared to be operating at a loss. The brochures were fairly basic, although they usually included floor plans. Clearly, a visit was the acid test.

My first choice turned out to be an unexpected disappointment. It didn't feel friendly and seemed rather isolated. Another promising prospect, offering plenty of continuing education opportunities in conjunction with one of the local universities, had ceilings so low that the apartments felt claustrophobic. It also seemed to be spending a lot of money on décor, and charged comparatively more for independent living so that it could charge less for assisted living. I preferred to gamble that I’d spend longer in independent living.

I ended up putting down a refundable deposit at a nonprofit CCRC with good-looking financials that had been operating for 30 years—long enough that some residents were second generation. It was walking distance to a library, cafes and restaurants, and was also on a bus line. Everyone I met there was friendly, plus it had the welcoming vibe I’d missed at my first choice. In early 2019, the wait for a one-bedroom apartment was four-plus years, but the next year I was able to switch to a two bedroom in a new building that should be completed this summer.

All the apartments in the new building are at least two bedrooms. Many, if not most, of the prospective residents are couples. The CCRC solution is attractive enough that some couples are moving to a one bedroom, while they wait for a two bedroom to become available. The wait list at my choice is now seven-plus years for a one bedroom, 10-plus for a two bedroom in the original building and 12-plus for a cottage. The CCRC’s wait list population is 65% couples and 35% single individuals. If you need a place with no wait list, probably your only hope—at least in my area—is a CCRC that’s just starting or possibly one that’s undertaking a major expansion. You also need to pass both a physical and financial check when moving in, another reason to plan ahead.

Before my expected move to the CCRC, I moved to an apartment and sold my house. I’ve been pleasantly surprised to find that I don’t miss the house, despite living there for more than 30 years. The move to a two-bedroom apartment meant I could keep my study, which certainly made the change easier. Another bonus: After paying the CCRC entry fee, I’ll qualify for a substantial medical deduction on this year's taxes—which I’ll use to reduce the tax on a Roth conversion.

Kathy Wilhelm, who comments on HumbleDollar as mytimetotravel, is a former software engineer. She took early retirement so she could travel extensively. Born and educated in England, Kathy has lived in North Carolina since 1975.

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Wedding Cost is just the beginning

"Agreed Dick - spending money on family and friends is a wonderful thing."
- greg_j_tomamichel
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On Being a “Healthy” Person

"I had my ApoB checked three weeks ago along with my Lp(a). It’s 64, which is very good. I’m guessing having been on a statin since the end of June helped with that, along with lowering my LDL from 117 in June to 67 in August."
- DrLefty
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Growing Up In A Big House

"David, Mrs. Lancaster truly lived through some lean times. I’m curious, had anyone else in the family gone beyond high school before your wife decided on technical college? What motivated her to continue her studies. "
- DAN SMITH
Read more »

Free Breakfast

"Linda, one shootout happened when police showed up to arrest a suspect hiding at the hotel, in order to avoid the arrest warrant."
- DAN SMITH
Read more »

The $5,000 Thought Experiment

"Dick, good analogy! Makes me wonder what our fictional households would do if they had a personal money-printing press to inflate away the debt."
- Mark Crothers
Read more »

Financial Fraud

RECENTLY, A FELLOW—let’s call him Tom—contacted me with a distressing story of financial fraud. I’ll describe what happened then review steps you might take to prevent this same sort of thing. Tom first noticed there might be a problem when he spotted a larger-than-average withdrawal from his checking account. The payee was a 529 college savings plan. But because Tom and his wife—let’s call her Jane—have 529 accounts for their children, the transaction almost went unnoticed. Tom assumed it was a transfer into his own family’s account. But when he mentioned it to Jane, she noted that they had stopped contributing to their 529. That prompted them to investigate further. What they found was that scammers had set up a new 529 account in Tom’s name. They then initiated an electronic funds transfer to move more than $2,000 from Tom and Jane’s checking account into the new 529 set up by the thieves. The intention presumably was to then withdraw the funds from the 529, at which point the theft would become unrecoverable. How were the thieves able to initiate the transfer from Tom and Jane’s bank? This is the part that’s distressing: They took advantage of the widely-used Automated Clearing House (ACH) system. Unfortunately, this system has key weaknesses that make it susceptible to fraud like this. First, it allows funds to be “pulled” out of an account. That’s in contrast to a wire transfer, which can only be “pushed” out by someone with access to the account. So a thief would only need your name, account number and bank routing number to siphon funds from that account. And unfortunately, that information is printed on the front of every check, making it accessible to someone looking to perpetrate this type of scheme. Once the thief had the new 529 account set up in Tom’s name, it was just one simple step to initiate a transfer from Tom and Jane’s bank since the accountholder’s name was the same on both accounts. It was so seamless that if Tom hadn’t been reviewing the transactions in his account, he might never have noticed the theft. According to the FBI, losses due to cybercrime have increased from $1 billion per year to $21 billion over the past 10 years, and ACH theft is a tactic thieves are using more frequently, so it’s worth looking at strategies to help keep your accounts secure. Here are six recommendations.
  1. Secure the login to your bank account by setting up two-factor authentication. And if your bank supports it, use an authenticator app, rather than text messages, for the authentication codes. Ideally, if your bank supports it, switch to a passkey. This is a newer technology that represents a significant advance over traditional passwords. Most importantly, they aren’t vulnerable to phishing attacks. They’re also easier to use, providing one-click logins, and you can store passkeys in a password manager. For those reasons, more websites are beginning to support passkeys. I’d make the switch as soon as your bank makes them available.
  2. Set up alerts through your bank to monitor activity in your checking account. Every bank is different, but most allow you to set up email- or text-based alerts to let you know when transactions above a specified threshold are processed, or when other types of activity occur.
  3. Monitor your transactions. These days, it can be hard to keep an eye on every account. Households often have one or more bank accounts plus credit cards and electronic payment services like Venmo or Zelle. Most people realistically don’t have the time to review every account in real time. That’s why I recommend a service like Monarch or YNAB, which are web-based versions of traditional budgeting tools like Quicken. These services can pull in transactions from all your accounts and present them in a consolidated list, making review much easier. If you kept Monarch or YNAB open in a browser window on your home computer, you could scroll through recent transactions whenever you have a spare minute.
  4. To narrow the circle of people who have access to your account information, try limiting the number of paper checks you write. Especially with Zelle and Venmo as alternatives for making payments, this is getting easier. If you do write paper checks, be sure to use a gel pen and to avoid freestanding mailboxes. Those steps can help prevent a related type of fraud, as Jonathan Clements explained a few years back.
  5. Pay attention to notifications of data breaches. Unfortunately, breach announcements seem to occur so frequently that we’ve become immune to them. It’s worth paying attention, though, to understand which particular pieces of information have been stolen. If it looks like your banking information is included in a breach, it might be worth opening a new account, inconvenient as that would be.
  6. Have your guard up against unsolicited phone calls, emails or text messages. If someone is contacting you about an “account security issue,” or claims to be calling from your bank or from the IRS, be especially wary. Those are common tactics for creating a sense of urgency that can cause people to let their guard down.
What if, like Tom and Jane, you spot a fraudulent transaction in your account? Then it’s important to report it as quickly as possible. Regulation E can limit your liability, but the faster you report a suspicious transaction, the more protection it provides. Liability is limited to just $50 if a theft is reported within two business days, but that exposure increases to $500 if it’s reported later. And after 60 days, there are no guarantees. Thieves, unfortunately, don’t seem to sleep, which means that we need to be more vigilant than in the past, and need to be continuously vigilant. As personal finance author Mike Piper wrote recently, “Cybersecurity should be considered another core area of personal finance—no different from insurance planning, for instance.” Adam M. Grossman is the founder of Mayport, a fixed-fee wealth management firm. Sign up for Adam's Daily Ideas email, follow him on X @AdamMGrossman and check out his earlier articles.
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Inflation Hedge

THE OPEN KITCHEN restaurant has been a fixture in Charlotte, North Carolina for 75 years. The restaurant has an old-time feel, with memorabilia, including menus from years gone by, lining its walls. Those old menus provided David Enna, a financial journalist, with a laboratory for examining the effects of inflation. What did Enna find? The oldest menu on display is from 1963. To state the obvious, today’s prices make those from the 1960s look quaint. Back then, spaghetti and meatballs cost just $1.10. Today, it’s $15.50. But, as Enna points out, that was more than 60 years ago, so increases are to be expected. Over the past 60 years, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) has averaged 3.8% per year. That isn’t unreasonable, especially since that average includes the 1970s, when inflation sometimes topped 10%. What’s of more concern, though, is what consumers have experienced more recently. Since 2020, prices across the economy have risen 29%. And though those increases have slowed, the Fed is still struggling to ratchet inflation back to its preferred 2% level. This has given investors renewed interest in strategies to defend against inflation. At first glance, this doesn’t seem like it should be such a difficult problem. The U.S. Treasury offers an investment specifically designed for this purpose: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS). These are bonds that are guaranteed by the federal government to increase in value with inflation. And though I hesitate to use the words “bond” and “exciting” in the same sentence, today many investors are finding the return on TIPS compelling. The 30-year TIPS is now paying close to 3% on top of inflation. If inflation averages 2.5%, for example, over the next 30 years, this bond will end up returning a total of 5.5% per year, and with minimal risk. That sounds good in theory, but do these bonds make sense for your portfolio? It’s worth taking a closer look. The first thing to note is that this seemingly attractive 3% yield only applies to 30-year TIPS. Yields on shorter-term bonds are lower. So unless your investment horizon happens to be exactly 30 years, these bonds may be of limited practical value. Putting aside the yield question, though, a more fundamental challenge with individual TIPS—and individual bonds in general—is that they’re a cumbersome way to build a portfolio. Even if you didn’t mind the process of buying bonds one by one, which can be tedious, there’s the fact that it’s hard for most people to be able to forecast their cash flow needs each year into the future. That’s a problem because choosing maturity dates is the foundation on which bond portfolios are built. Ideally, if you can align the maturity dates of the bonds in your portfolio with your future cash needs, then you can hold bonds to maturity, which is when the issuer would promise to pay you back in full. But that redemption value is guaranteed only at maturity. Buy a 20-year bond and sell it after just 10 years, and there are no guarantees. A bondholder could easily lose money selling an individual bond before maturity. Given these challenges, would a TIPS fund be a better choice? To be sure, bond funds are much simpler to purchase and to manage, but they typically offer even less protection from losses than individual bonds. Most recently, shareholders in TIPS funds were disappointed by how they performed in 2022, when inflation spiked to 9%. Investors expected that to be the year when TIPS rewarded investors, but instead, diversified TIPS funds such as the Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities Fund (ticker: VAIPX) lost nearly 12%. Why did funds like this fare so poorly when inflation was running so high? The problem is that, at the end of the day, TIPS are still bonds. And though they receive a bump in value when inflation rises, a countervailing force is that they lose value when interest rates rise. In 2022, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates aggressively to fight inflation. The negative impact from those rate increases far outweighed the benefit TIPS received from inflation being higher. That puts investors in a difficult position. If TIPS provide inflation protection in theory, but both individual TIPS and TIPS funds carry limitations, what other options are there? The good news is that not all TIPS funds are the same. Some hold only short-term bonds, and they have historically held up much better than more broadly diversified TIPS funds because short-term bonds are more resilient when interest rates rise. Over the past five years, a fund like Vanguard’s Short-Term Inflation-Protected Securities ETF (ticker: VTIP) has outperformed a comparable fund (ticker: VGSH) holding standard short-term Treasury bonds every year, as well as this year to-date. It’s important to note, though, that this is relative performance. In 2022, when the entire bond market was under pressure, even short-term TIPS funds like VTIP did still lose money. They just lost less than funds holding conventional bonds. The bottom line: We should never become too wedded to any one strategy. No investment can promise reliable and complete protection against inflation in every market scenario. That said, I do still recommend TIPS and would specifically recommend a short-term fund like VTIP. But I also suggest taking a diversified approach to inflation protection. Here are other steps to consider. If you’re in your 60s and considering when to claim Social Security, that decision offers a powerful lever. Because Social Security benefits increase with inflation and also increase with each year you delay claiming, it’s maybe the most effective way to build additional inflation protection into your plan. What else can you do? Fortunately, you may already own one of the most effective—and underappreciated—inflation-fighting instruments: stocks. While rising prices in recent years have been frustrating for consumers, the result has been that companies have been able to maintain their profit margins. That, in turn, has helped to support their stock prices through this period of inflation. To be sure, some companies have more of an ability to raise prices than others, but overall, stocks are, in my view, a good way to keep pace with inflation. The one thing I wouldn’t do is to buy gold. Despite its reputation, various studies have confirmed that gold really isn’t a reliable inflation hedge. In a paper titled “The Golden Dilemma,” researchers wrote: “Over practical investment horizons, gold is an unreliable inflation hedge,” though they acknowledge that it may be more reliable over longer timeframes—“if the investment horizon is measured in centuries.”   Adam M. Grossman is the founder of Mayport, a fixed-fee wealth management firm. Sign up for Adam's Daily Ideas email, follow him on X @AdamMGrossman and check out his earlier articles.  
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Taking It With You

DEEP DOWN INSIDE, I want to be the richest person in the graveyard.  I retired at age 62, confident in our financial plan to survive market fluctuations. We saved over 25% of our income for nearly three decades. Perhaps a bit too much, but we lived well and always had sufficient funds to raise a family, maintain our household, and put our children through postgraduate education. If anything, our retirement spending level is conservative, based on a 40 year time frame for both my wife and I. We have a slightly nuanced financial plan. Suffice to say it is reassuring to know that we are beyond financial security if we simply maintain an inflation adjusted 4% withdrawal rate. Indeed, calculations suggested we could double our pre-retirement budget, with no worries or loss of sleep. Risk be damned! Slowly, we made a conscious decision to spend more. At first it was tough to break old habits. I mean, frugality runs deep in my immediate family. You could use my brother and I as chromosomal templates in a genetic search to discover the frugality gene.  My wife and I now go out for coffee without blinking an eye at paying nearly 6 bucks for a cup of Joe (plus tip). We don’t hesitate to escape the Houston heat by scarfing 5 dollar a scoop ice cream. We no longer plan our restaurant outings according to Happy Hour schedules or local senior discounts.  Even so, three years into retirement, our annual spending remains well below what our financial plan says we can safely afford.  Time to up the ante. We bought season tickets to the symphony and added a dinner date before the performance. We took international vacations twice a year, exploring new countries and cultures. We drove to national parks and treated ourselves to overnights in hotels instead of motels. We gifted our children, with hopes they would bolster their own long-term savings. Gosh, we even made significant charitable gifts to institutions we only previously dreamed of supporting.  Spending is easy. Spending wisely is a challenge. Ironically, the strong stock market since our retirement has made it remarkably difficult to spend our money as initially planned. It sounds counter intuitive, but let me explain.  Our retirement portfolio allocation has a stock to bond ratio of 75:25.  The stock component primarily matches total market returns. Specifically, our stock component has grown more than 65% since we retired. Because of this, we put aside 10 years of safer funds (bonds and cash equivalents) to weather any potential market storm. We successfully navigated the immediate sequence of return risk (SORR) hurdle, that pesky danger of facing a poor investment market performance in earliest years of retirement.  We feel both blessed and safe. We sleep well at night. Our financial calculators now indicate that we can spend even more than original predictions. Yet that realization is causing me angst. After all, we spent a lifetime saving, scrimping and sacrificing to reach this point. Indeed, we value the concepts of avoiding excess, of seeking value and purpose in purchases. Our goals were never to impress the neighbors, but rather be content and grateful with what we have.   I want people to know I had a choice about how I spent my accumulated dollars. I chose a life of frugality, questioning everything I purchased. Do I really need that new phone? My current one makes calls, surfs the web, and navigates when I need directions.  Do I need a new car? My dented 11 year old Honda gets me safely to my destinations. Shall I purchase the kayak I’ve been eyeing, or simply rent one for the two times a year I brave the waters?  Perhaps the real measure of a successful retirement is not how much money remains at the end, but whether those resources were used in ways that enriched the lives of others and brought meaning to our own. Financial independence now gives us choices, and a freedom after decades of disciplined saving. It is okay if I leave this world with more than enough funds still in the bank. There are values I learned along the way; those of prudence, generosity, gratitude, and the quiet confidence that comes from living well below one's means. In the end, wealth is simply a tool; character is the true legacy. Perhaps the goal isn't to die with the largest portfolio, but to know that every dollar reflected the values by which we chose to live. Therefore, if I can’t spend it all according to my values, I guess I’m okay with being the one of the richest men in the graveyard.  Jeffrey K. Actor, PhD, was a professor at a major medical school in Houston for more than 25 years, serving as an academic researcher with interests in how immune responses function to fight pathogenic diseases. Jeff’s retirement goals are to write short science fiction stories, volunteer in the community and spend time in his garden. Check out his earlier articles.
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Remembering Jonathan

"Thank you, that is incredibly kind. Writing has become one of the ways I keep Jonathan close. If something of him lives on through my words, that means more to me than I can express."
- Andrew Clements
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Manifesto

NO. 45: PAYING down debt may not be our best investment, but it’s almost never a bad idea. It reduces our life’s financial risk—and earns us a rate of return equal to the debt’s interest rate.

Truths

NO. 114: WHO INHERITS most of your assets likely won’t be governed by your will. Instead, property owned jointly with right of survivorship will go to the other owners. Trust assets, retirement accounts and life insurance will go to the named beneficiaries. Ditto for bank and investment accounts that are titled as “payable on death” or “transfer on death.”

think

MORAL LICENSING. When we’ve behaved well and feel virtuous, we often give ourselves permission to behave badly. Just signed up for your employer’s 401(k) plan? Perversely, this can weaken your willpower—and suddenly a shopping spree seems perfectly reasonable. Even thinking about good behavior can lead folks to feel justified in acting badly.

act

AVOID SITUATIONS where you feel poor. Even as the U.S. standard of living has climbed, overall happiness hasn’t. A key reason: We care about our financial standing relative to others. Don’t exacerbate this problem by going to shops, resorts and restaurants you can barely afford, or moving to a town where your neighbors will be far wealthier.

How we make money

Manifesto

NO. 45: PAYING down debt may not be our best investment, but it’s almost never a bad idea. It reduces our life’s financial risk—and earns us a rate of return equal to the debt’s interest rate.

Spotlight: Health

Hole Truth

SOON AFTER GRADUATING college and starting work, I visited a dentist I found in the Yellow Pages for a long overdue teeth cleaning and exam. Although I had never had a cavity, the dentist informed me that I had multiple cavities that urgently needed to be filled. Naïve me allowed this dentist to fill the two supposed cavities of most concern.
Somewhat traumatized, I avoided dentists for a time. Finally, I queried several older coworkers,

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A Lifetime of Loss

WE SUFFER LOSSES throughout our life. During our youth, we might leave old chums behind when our family starts fresh in a new town or when we go away to college. Later, a job loss or a divorce could leave us drained both financially and emotionally. But for most of us, our senior years are when loss hits hardest.
Our body is often the first casualty, especially the face we see in the mirror each morning.

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Can’t Figure Out This Darned Insomnia

I woke up this morning at 4, wide awake and couldn’t sleep. I laid there reading google news on my phone. Finally I got out of bed and made it out into the living room. It was pitch black outside, yet my path through the house was well illuminated by little, mostly blue lights. About 30 of them. Smoke and carbon monoxide detectors, routers, scanners, label maker, alarm clocks, microwave, coffee maker, toaster oven, range, bathroom nightlights,

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Staying Alive

I’m writing this from the infusion center, with my every-three-week cocktail of chemotherapy and immunotherapy drugs dripping into my right arm. And that’s good news.
It’s been a rough two-and-a-half months. In early October, an abdomen scan uncovered a pulmonary embolism, which landed me in hospital for two days and means I’m now on blood thinners. In early November, an MRI uncovered two new cancerous lesions on my brain, while another MRI later in the month turned up four lesions on my spine.

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Tributes to Jonathan Clements

HUMBLEDOLLAR FOUNDER and longtime Wall Street Journal columnist Jonathan Clements passed away earlier this week. He was 62.
I reached out to several of Jonathan’s close friends and colleagues to ask for their remembrances. Taken together, they paint a picture of someone who was as beloved by his peers as he was by his readers.
As Jason Zweig put it, “I have just lost a friend, and so have you.”
Christine Benz,

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Frugal Fitness

AS A PHYSICAL therapist, I’ve spent a large slice of each work day teaching and encouraging patients as they exercise their way to better health. Along with other elements of treatment, each patient pays for a custom exercise program tailored for their specific problem.
These are folks looking for a way past the debilitating effects of injury or disease. Even so, many of them find it hard to follow my plea to “do your exercises”.

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Spotlight: Quinn

What workers and retirees say about their quest for a comfortable, desired lifestyle in retirement

The 34th Annual Retirement Confidence Survey (RCS) from the Employee Benefit Research Institute provides interesting insight into many of the topics discussed in the Forum. About 1200 of both workers and retirees were surveyed.  I’m always a bit suspicious of surveys, but there aren’t other ways to obtain an insight from individuals that I know of.  It’s a mixed bag.  Planning can be improved in several areas, Social Security is not well understood, while it remains a significant source of income. Reading the data you could conclude that retirement is a bit of a struggle, but for most retirees that’s not so as they say they have the lifestyle they expected. This despite, in some areas, they seem to have rejected conventional wisdom.  Workers retired earlier than expected and began collecting Social Security as soon as they retired.  83% of workers with an employer retirement plan say they are interested in using all or a portion of their saving to obtain a guaranteed monthly income stream. I’m with them, that monthly paycheck can’t be beat  Over 30% of workers have taken a loan or withdrawal from their plan to make ends meet or pay off debt. That’s not engouraging. Just 20% of workers are very confident they will have enough money to live comfortably in retirement, but retirees tell a different story.  Only 51% of workers have estimated the income they will need in retirement. Only 48% have reviewed the amount of Social Security they will receive. No wonder they aren’t very confident about retirement income to live “comfortably”. Of course, that’s one of those words with an infinite number of definitions.  A third of workers have less than $50,000 savings and investments and 14% have less than $1,000 - let’s hope that is the youngest (age 25) group of…
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Aiming for Less

WHAT DOES IT MEAN to “live within your means”? To answer the question, we first need to define “means.” If your gross income is $60,000, that income isn’t your means. For starters, you need to subtract income and payroll taxes. To live within your means, you need to spend no more than your net income—income after taxes and other withholdings. I’ll go further and suggest that your true means are your income net of monthly savings for retirement and financial emergencies. Some people do even better. They live below their means, meaning they save extra—denying themselves spending that many others happily embrace. Living below your means isn’t about deprivation or sacrificing all enjoyment. Rather, it’s about making a conscious decision to prioritize financial security. If you’re already saving enough to meet long-term and short-term goals, living far below your means strikes me as unnecessary, even punitive. I’m not a fan of super-frugality. Living prudently is about managing your finances responsibly and making choices that align with your income. The key words here are “align with your income.” Living within your means is easier as your income rises, and yet many higher-income folks fail to do so. Where you live is a factor, too. I live in the third highest income-tax state, one that also has the nation’s highest property taxes. The average property tax in our town is $17,206, and our bill is $13,600. One result: Our monthly fixed costs are $4,193. These expenses include property taxes, homeowners’ association fees, and all insurance and utility bills. They don’t include the cost of groceries, gasoline, clothing, personal care services, gifts, eating out or car maintenance. It also doesn’t include any expenses related to our vacation home. While some say they live comfortably in retirement on $50,000 a year, it costs us…
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Lesson Unlearned

IF YOU LIVED through the Great Depression of the 1930s and then the Second World War, your view of money was likely molded by those traumatic back-to-back experiences. You might respond by trying to build wealth, so you’re better prepared for the future, whatever it brings. Alternatively, you might hunker down and become ultraconservative for fear of losing everything. My parents, born in 1910 and 1918, took the hunker down approach. When I was born, my father was a tower man on the railroad, helping to direct trains. But for decades after, he was a car salesman. He sold Packard, Studebaker, Edsel and, in his final years, Mercedes. He worked from 8 a.m. until 9 p.m., seven days a week, until the law prevented Sunday sales. For most of his sales career, he worked strictly on commission. No sales, no pay—though he could draw an advance on future sales. I recall one year he was especially proud of his income, hitting an all-time high of $25,000. I used to think how pathetic that was until I adjusted it for inflation. In today’s dollars, that $25,000 would be equal to some $220,000. He had a right to be proud. My mother controlled the money, with an emphasis on control. Spending was a major event. In 1968, my parents gave my new wife and me a wedding present of $12. I never knew if there wasn’t enough money or my mother was simply terrified of spending. When I was growing up, we were the only ones in our extended family who didn’t own their home. Finally, when my father was 60, they bought a house to share with my sister and her family—eight people, one tiny bathroom. What money my parents had was in the bank, most of it in a checking…
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Rats!!

Back in the 1960s I processed health insurance claims. Employees came to me with their receipts and I helped them put a claim together and then submit it for payment.  One day an employee presented a receipt from a hardware store- for rat poison. I thought it was a mistake or a joke. I almost laughed. However, he was quite serious. Rat poison is a blood thinner and it was prescribed by his doctor. Unfortunately, it wasn’t eligible for reimbursement.  Good thing it was only a dollar or so. Heck, an office visit was $5.00. That would be $52 today - good luck with that.  As crude as that may seem today, apparently it did the job- very affordably. Just imagine getting your health care at Home Depot instead of Walgreens.  Today we know better. We even have a choice of drugs to accomplish the same thing as rat poison- except kill rats - at a price, of course. The cost of popular blood thinners like Eliquis and Xarelto can vary significantly, with a 30-day supply potentially costing around $550 to $600.  Older blood thinners like Warfarin can be significantly cheaper, around $20 to $30 per month. Warfarin was developed in the 1920s as a result of research on cows dying from a blood thinning disease. Just like we do to rats.  You can get D-Con rat pellets for $8.64 at Walmart, but not Walgreens.  No, I’m not serious.  The thing with health care is we tend to want the latest of and perceived best of everything, regardless of cost as long as someone else is paying.  I recently read a woman’s rant on social media complaining that she incurred a $3,000 expense because the insurance company “refused to pay.” It was her deductible, but she didn’t see it that…
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Women and men are different. Quinn’s in trouble again

Recently Connie said she needed some makeup so off to the makeup store we went - and I do mean store, an entire rather large store selling just makeup. We were greeted by one of a dozen young ladies dressed in black. They are there to help you find what you are looking for or perhaps more accurately, to educate you on what you should be looking for. I stood by the entrance patiently waiting until I was called for my opinion - that never goes well. Which of these coverups looks more natural I was asked. I agreed with the lady in black as a safe hedge while I wondered how covering anything up looks natural.  Anyway, with shopping done, as we left the store and my phone signaled a text arrived. It was my bank telling me the cosmetic charge was $179. How $179 worth of stuff fit in a bag the size of a small popcorn at the movies amazed me.  We weren’t done though, the store didn’t have a couple of items so off we went to Macy’s. Another text message - $125. I delicately inquired about the grand total of things to cover up, enhance and moisturize - only at night no less. Some of the items were in tubes smaller than a travel size toothpaste and others were jars smaller than a marshmallow- I was later told those were samples. Besides Connie said, it all lasts a long time.  After over $300 of assistance Connie was armed to look her best - for me I was reminded. The markup on cosmetics must rival pharmaceuticals. As we were walking to the car she said she wished she had the physical ability to shop more. “Why,” I asked. “There are a lot of things I need,”…
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If you have done well, be proud.

I check our investments daily, often more if the market is jumping around.  Why do I do that? There is no good reason. I don’t trade, I don’t even use the funds.  If I am honest, I check the accounts only to keep proving to myself that I have been successful meeting my own financial goals. It’s just between me and me.  Is there anything wrong with being proud of what you have accomplished when you started at the bottom with zero in hand? I read the stories posted by many HD readers who have accomplished a great deal or overcome punches in the face and got up swinging. I see nothing wrong with being proud of that.  I grew up in a modest household where money was not guaranteed from week to week, where paycheck to paycheck was very real, where there was no such thing as investments or any talk of going to college.  I didn’t get where I am by myself, I had a few great mentors. We have been blessed with the absence of serious misfortune. Still, both of us do take some credit for not being irresponsible with money. Hence, persistence and time - a long time, worked its magic.  So for those who have overcome adversity of any kind, who have achieved financial security and a comfortable retirement, be proud - even if you have more than your friends and family or have left national measures of income and net worth in the dust. You earned it.  Besides, no matter how well we have done, somebody has done better 🤷🏻‍♂️
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