Games Colleges Play
Greg Spears | Sep 13, 2022
WHEN OUR KIDS applied to colleges, the smallest detail of each campus visit mattered a lot. If our daughter admired the student leading our tour, the school skyrocketed in her estimation. If the class our son attended to “get a feel for the place” turned out to be a test period, Grandpa’s alma mater was forever struck from consideration. In economic terms, the college decision features asymmetric information. Colleges know a lot about us from our detailed personal and financial applications. We know only a little about the college, yet we wager a fortune on the hope that it’ll accelerate our child’s growth into adulthood. Into this breach stepped U.S. News & World Report with its college ranking system. It assembles reams of data and boils it all down to one all-knowing statistic: how a school ranks against every other college in the nation. William & Mary, for example, is tied for No. 41 among national universities in the U.S. News 2022-23 rankings—not No. 40, not No. 42. If you suspect such certainty suggests false precision, you’ll find plenty of support in a recent paper by Michael Thaddeus, a Columbia University math professor. Using math and new research, he demolishes his employer’s U.S. News ranking as the second-best college in the nation. He also suggests there are better sites to use when evaluating colleges, which I'll share at the end. In his paper, Thaddeus compared Columbia’s reported U.S. News numbers against publicly available information. Lying is such an ugly word. Let’s just say he found Columbia stretched the truth quite often to raise its ranking. For example, Columbia told U.S. News that 100% of its faculty have PhDs or terminal degrees in their field, a higher percentage than Princeton, MIT, Harvard or Yale. Looking through faculty bios, Thaddeus found 66 cases…
Read more » Inertia’s Rewards
Greg Spears | Jan 26, 2022
I ONCE JOINED a book club led by an amazingly smart guy. We were reading a challenging book by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, the philosopher, investor and probabilities expert. Our discussion leader was a Chartered Financial Analyst who had solved one of the most enduring riddles at Vanguard Group, where I worked at the time. For many years—decades, really—Vanguard hadn’t offered an international bond fund. Our founder, Jack Bogle, wasn’t a fan of international investing in general. But he was retired by then, and we did offer several international stock funds. But there was a big problem with international bonds—they were unreliable. We weren’t just being xenophobic. The issue was currency fluctuations. It could wipe out any gain an investor might make internationally when that gain was converted back into U.S. dollars. Exchange rates—luck, really—mattered more to returns than yield, credit quality or anything else we could analyze. That’s when the leader of our book group made a brilliant suggestion to top management. Why not hedge international bonds against currency fluctuations, so that risk was taken out of the equation? He had cut the Gordian knot. Vanguard opened an international bond fund on that basis in 2013. It was a huge favorite with bond investors seeking diversification, the only free lunch in investing. The fund had $119 billion in assets by late 2021, in part because it’s a mainstay of Vanguard’s target-date funds. But this isn’t a tale about bonds or international investing. One day at book club, our leader told us a story about his own investing. Because he was super-smart and a CFA, he was frequently tweaking his portfolio for optimal performance. He had the thing tuned up like a Ferrari. His wife, on the other hand, didn’t work in the investment world. She invested her money in index funds…
Read more » Rich Pickings
Greg Spears | Oct 28, 2021
THE NEWSPAPERS ARE full of reports that a new tax on billionaires may be uncorked. The Washington Post even ran an article estimating what the 10 richest Americans would pay over the next five years should it pass. I take no stand on the politics of the proposal. But I have seen enough trial balloons to be skeptical that Elon Musk will soon write a 10-digit check to the U.S. Treasury. As Chuck Collins has written in The Wealth Hoarders, billionaires pay their advisers millions to hide trillions. Collins is the great-grandson of hot dog king Oscar Mayer, so he’s seen how wealth works from the inside. The fledgling tax proposal does meet one important objective, as espoused by the late Senator Russell Long, the longtime chair of the tax-writing Senate Finance Committee. As Long once noted, many people have the same plea: “Don’t tax you, don’t tax me, tax that fellow behind the tree.” A proposal to tax just the ultra-wealthy does indeed aim the tax gun at somebody else. But can we count on billionaires to stand still? Collins says there are two main ways that the wealthiest deflect taxes. The first is to assign lobbyists to Washington to ward off a blow before it’s imposed. That, no doubt, is happening right now. The second way is to deploy talented professionals with highly specialized knowledge to adeptly navigate a complex tax landscape. Several recent dumps of secret legal papers have shown that—should it get that far—assets can be moved offshore or to tax-friendly states like South Dakota. Of course, if options A and B don’t work, there’s always the nuclear option—giving the money away. That’s the idea behind the giving pledge endorsed by Bill Gates and Warren Buffett, two of the tax proposal’s principal targets. Signers of the…
Read more » Not Staying the Course
Greg Spears | Sep 19, 2025
THE MOST FAMOUS expression at Vanguard is to ‘stay the course.’ It’s meant to suggest that investors should remain steadfast and not sell stocks in a downturn. This has proven great advice over the decades, but I’ve not been staying the course lately. I’ve been selling stock funds and buying bond funds this summer. Yet I think my actions would have the blessings of Vanguard founder Jack Bogle, who made the phrase ‘stay the course’ famous. Mr. Bogle used to have lunch with the crew in the cafeteria, called the Galley in keeping with Vanguard’s nautical naming style. There, he would dispense wisdom to all comers. Bogle advised keeping investing as simple as possible (though not too simple), and this included his ideas about asset allocation. During one lunch conversation, he said that the adage that you should own your age in bonds was generally correct, but he might make one adjustment. I’m 69 years old, so if I followed the traditional rule, I would invest 69% of my portfolio in bond funds and 31% in stocks. Bogle suggested tweaking the formula by subtracting your age from 110 and owning that percentage of stocks. By this adjustment to the rule, I would invest 59% bonds and 41% stocks. At summer’s start, 70% of my retirement assets were in stocks. I’ve profited from being overweight in stocks. So, why not let it ride? Well, I don’t need to make more money in the market. I do need to protect what I’ve got. When the market briefly corrected earlier this year, I admit I had regrets. After it recovered, I felt I was offered a do-over. I didn't stay the course. After a season of selling, I’ve whittled my stock holdings down to roughly 45%. The remainder is in bonds and money…
Read more » Six Ways to Grow Income
Greg Spears | Dec 18, 2025
The best financial advice I know is “live on less than you earn and save the difference.” For too many, though, there’s nothing left over to save after paying the bills. Basic living costs seem much higher these days. Housing can take an outsized bite of family income as rents and housing prices have risen. Factor in other big expenses like health insurance, childcare, and student loan repayment, and there may not be any money left to save at month’s end. I propose a new chapter in the financial planning curriculum—ways to make more money. That wasn’t a core subject in my Certified Financial Planner program. The unstated assumption, I think, is that clients who consult with a CFP are already well-fixed. To get started, I’ll pitch six ideas. It does feel like I’m stating the obvious, however. You probably have good ideas from your life. Please add them in comments—I look forward to reading them. Here are mine: If still in school, know what your college major pays before you—or your child or grandchild—graduates. You can look up the average first-year earnings of many majors at specific colleges at a site called CollegeSimply. I learned from this site that at Purdue University, biology graduates earn $33,500 a year, on average, versus $69,200 for mechanical engineers. Try to major in something that pays. If you’re already in the workforce, continue your education by earning a professional designation or advanced degree. Many employers, like mine, will pay the full tuition for a job-related degree, including an MBA or CFP. For white collar workers, these degrees are the equivalent of belonging to a union. Job hop for a pay bump. I wrote about this once during the pandemic, when job seekers briefly held the upper hand in salary negotiations. A reader commented…
Read more » Avoiding Alzheimer’s
Greg Spears | Sep 13, 2024
I NEVER PURCHASED long-term-care insurance, even though the personal finance magazine I wrote for in the 1990s often recommended it. To the magazine’s editors, it seemed like another logical step in retirement preparation. I had two reasons to decide against it, however. First, it seemed a huge expense. We were advised to buy it around age 60, long before any presumed decline. I was younger than that and unprepared to pay hundreds a month for decades when I didn’t know if I’d ever use the coverage. Second, I simply don’t want to end up in a nursing home. Why, I wondered, would I buy an insurance policy designed to pay my way there? I realize, of course, that I’m playing with fire. That’s why I take so much interest in behaviors that may ward off Alzheimer’s disease, one of the greatest reasons that people find themselves in nursing homes. Alzheimer’s can begin with simple memory loss and builds to the point where people can’t manage their lives. It affects nearly seven million Americans and its incidence is growing. If current trends continue, as many as 13 million Americans will suffer from the disease by 2050, according to the Alzheimer’s Association. For many years, I have roughly followed the Mediterranean diet, which is rich in olive oil, fresh fruits and vegetables. That diet is associated with a 23% lower incidence of dementia among Europeans who follow it closely. I also exercise five or six days a week, as vigorous people have a lower incidence of Alzheimer’s, too. I like to run but, when it gets too hot, I swim at my gym. I also began lifting weights last year at the recommendation of a friend who’s in his 80s and doing well. These efforts of mine take time and energy and,…
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