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This would be a great posting on a web site with the name “HaughtyDollar.”

"Dick, the opinions and assertions you stated in your original post would have been just as valid (or invalid) years ago. Adjusting for inflation and the increase in the number of card holders, over time the average credit card balance has been flat for decades. In fact the percent of consumer credit card debt as a share of disposable income is lower than it was ten and even twenty years ago. In short, the type of consumer credit behavior that you would approve of, has improved ever so slightly the last thirty years. Despite the undeniable debt wastage you decry, I am saddened by - and "haughty" while not a bullseye hits close to the mark I'm afraid - the statement: “I think it can be summarized, in most cases, as poor financial planning and irresponsible behavior.” You nor I can, in all fairness, summarize "most" of the millions of cases and judge them as "irresponsible". Consider putting down the broad brush. Rest your ever-sensitive hackles. Walk with your beloved wife along the sandy Cape beach and let thoughts of credit cards, shopping carts, and social security recede with tide into the great ocean. With much care and respect, Mark"
- Retired
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Bad Maths, Good Fire.

"One part of living well, in my opinion!"
- Dave Melick
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You Heel!

"We visited Nova Scotia in May. We pretty much apologized for the adversarial political behavior whenever we were forced to disclose we were from the US. The uniform reply was something to the effect that "we know it's not you, because we used to visit there a lot, and everyone is so nice"."
- Jeff Bond
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A Place At The Table

"Yes, Andrew (and everyone), traveling while young shouldn’t be limited to those from well-off families but it takes an open mind on the part of the parents to let their children travel with non-family members, plus dedicated teachers or coaches to organize the fundraising. But it’s true that such trips, whether they are for sightseeing, attending classes or engaging in some kind of helping project, are life changing for the kids, usually teenagers."
- Linda Grady
Read more »

Blood Money

"I agree with you about KO but XOM is involved in climate deception since it knew about global warming risks 60 years ago and ranks as one of the top global greenhouse gas polluters."
- Nick Politakis
Read more »

Americans and their credit cards

"More than 60% of Americans self-report in surveys that they live needing their next paycheck to cover their monthly bills. This may be more a reflection of the economic pressure that working Americans feel at the gas pump, grocery store and doctor's office. A study by Bankrate instead placed that P-to-P figure at 34%, and pointed out the varying definitions of the term "paycheck to paycheck." The Federal Reserve found that 54% of American households have emergency savings to cover three months of expenses, which means of course that almost half do not. However, the fanciful idea that the lowest income quartile can lift themselves out with "prudence" would only be publicly expressed by someone who has never seriously conversed with a member of that quartile. One morning -- just one -- of volunteer work at one's local food bank would promptly dismiss that idea forever, but one must be willing to expose oneself to real life for that to happen."
- Mike Gaynes
Read more »

The Intentional Spendthrift

"I totally agree Andrews. Once the plane’s wheels touch down at our destination it’s do whatever we want to do and the cost is what it is. We don’t give it one thought. We are truly blessed to be in this situation. Next week we are heading to the UK and have prepaid for flights, hotels, trains, and entrance fees. Those are the expensive components of vacation, and already paid for. After that it’s primarily food which usually involves a big breakfast at the hotel (more often the not included in the hotel bill already paid), a snack during the day, and then dinner. So the main cost when we arrive is just dinner."
- DavidHLancaster
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Feeling TIPSy?

NOT TOO LONG ago, Treasury Inflation Protected Security (TIPS) was a relatively obscure investment for safe long-term fixed-income investments. For the first twenty years of the new century, consumer prices were mostly stable or rising at a too-slow-to-notice rate. Why bother with anything related to inflation? Sadly, persistently low inflation made us complacent on the biggest long-term risk of bond investments -- the insidious unexpected inflation that robs us of the purchasing power of our “safe” investments. Yes, let’s not forget that the biggest risk of bond or bond-like investments is unexpected inflation. Any bond or CD with a maturity beyond a few years must either offer a sufficiently high interest rate to compensate for sudden bouts of inflation, or have its principal adjusted for the inflation actually realized. The former is nearly impossible to find without sacrificing safety. The latter is what TIPS is for. To be clear, the market and investors always expect some level of inflation. Therefore, a bond’s effective interest rate - measured by its YTM (Yield to Maturity) - must be high enough to not only compensate for “expected” inflation and the uncertainties around it but also provide a meaningful increase in the purchasing power of the original principal.  A concrete example might help. Consider a 10-year US Treasury nominal bond with a face value of $1,000, selling at $1,000 and paying 5% annual interest. The interest rate reflects the expectations about inflation and other factors over the next 10 years. The rate would be lower if market expected lower inflation, and higher if market expected the opposite. The omnipresence of inflation means we’re likely to lose some purchasing power when we get our $1,000 in 10 years. It won’t buy what $1,000 buys today. By how much? That’s the thousand dollars question (pun intended).  There isn’t a readily available number that explains why that 10-year Treasury Bond yields 5% instead of 3% or 7%. Investors essentially take a leap of faith that annual inflation stays low enough over the 10-year period for the interim interests to compensate for the purchasing power loss, plus some changes. Most of us are perfectly comfortable assuming that inflation won’t be as high as 5% for 10 years. But are we fooling ourselves? I suggest using an inflation calculator to see for ourselves. Spoiler alert: Late 1960s through early 1980s can be an eye-opening period. How’d we feel if the next 10 years turn out to be something similar? Think about how you might feel when you safekeep your money in a so-called secure investment, give up higher returns available from risky investments, and then encounter an inflationary regime. Your minimum expectation was that your purchasing power would remain intact and perhaps improve a little by the time your bond matures. Instead, unforeseen inflation erodes your purchasing power and compromises the financial goal the fund was supposed to cover.  Your “safe” investment fails you completely. You realize that it wasn’t safe at all.  If unexpected inflation is so devastating, why are we so lax about it?  I can think of two reasons.  First, our minds haven’t adapted to the reality that, unlike to a “real” asset like a bag of rice or a gallon of gasoline, money in its current form is inherently self-eroding. It slowly loses its worth over time. A hundred dollars sitting around will still be a hundred dollars next year, but it won’t buy the same amount. We don’t intuitively perceive the continuous loss of purchasing power. Even when we do internalize it with some effort, we get used to the “pace” of the loss. In other words, we view inflation as steady and unexpected inflation as highly unlikely. Alas, all it takes is a single prolonged inflationary period to change that perception. By then, however, the damage to existing fixed income investments may already be done. Frankly, I’d be very wary of keeping my long-term “safe” money -- fund that I need to preserve beyond a three-year horizon - in any form that isn’t protected against unexpected inflation. For bond investments, the most meaningful option would be TIPS. Why? Because, in addition to being secured by the full faith and credit of the US Government just like any other Treasury securities, TIPS provides three important assurances upfront. First, it provides protection against unexpected inflation, which is a realized inflation that differs from what we expected when purchasing it. If the actual inflation averages 12% instead of the expected 2%, the principal is automatically adjusted to reflect the actual inflation. No guesswork or unexpected risk involved. Second, it provides a “real interest rate” upfront that tells us how much the purchasing power of the investment will increase over time, regardless of what the actual inflation turns out to be. Buying a 10-year TIPS with real 2% annual interest means the investment’s purchasing power will grow 2% per year over the holding period, before considering taxes and other factors. The third aspect is more nuanced. It involves the possibility of inflation being lower than expected, or even negative inflation (aka deflation). Let me elaborate. If a regular nominal 10-year Treasury Bond offers 5% annual yield and an equivalent TIPS offers a real annual interest rate of 2.75%, the market-implied inflation, the breakeven inflation rate, is roughly 2.25% (5% minus 2.75%). Actual inflation, of course, will be known only after 10 years when the bond matures. Suppose the actual inflation turns out to be only 1.25%. The nominal Bond investor would end up with more purchasing power than the TIPS investor because the TIPS principle would be adjusted by only the actual 1.25% inflation rate.  The primary objective of the TIPS investor would still have been met: preserving and improving purchasing power by about 2.75% annually. But there would be a “missed opportunity”. The nominal Treasury investor would end up with even greater purchasing power. Does it mean that a TIPS investor can face an unlimited opportunity cost if inflation turns out to be negative? What happens if the actual inflation is, hypothetically speaking, negative 5%, in a severely deflationary period? Does the TIPS investor get back proportionately reduced principal at maturity? Thanks to the third assurance of TIPS, the answer is NO.  TIPS guarantees that the principal returned at maturity will never fall below the original face value. During periods of deflation, the inflation-adjusted principal can fall below its face value and the interim interest payments will decline accordingly. But at maturity, the principal is floored at the original principal amount. Therefore, the breakeven inflation rate, the difference between the yield of a nominal Treasury bond and the real yield of an equivalent TIPS, represents the maximum annual yield advantage that the nominal bond can have over TIPS in an unexpectedly low inflation regime.  To summarize, a TIPS investor gets unlimited protection against unexpectedly high inflation, while accepting a limited opportunity cost should the actual inflation be low or even negative. The magnitude of that trade-off is reflected in the breakeven inflation rate at the time of the TIPS purchase.  An aside: given the destructive impact of deflation on economy and society, policy makers are generally more concerned about preventing prolonged deflation than about preventing modest inflation. Therefore, prolonged deflation is usually considered less likely. Still, we cannot ignore deflation risk altogether and should be prepared for the possibility that TIPS can underperform a nominal bond if inflation runs low.  Therefore, the decision to favor TIPS over an equivalent nominal Bond hinges in part on the current breakeven inflation rate. If it’s low enough, favoring TIPS can be an easy decision. Getting unlimited protection against unexpectedly high inflation is worth accepting the relatively small opportunity cost if inflation comes below the breakeven rate. There is, however, a cautionary note about buying TIPS bonds in the secondary market, especially older issues. Consider a 30-year TIPS bond issued 20 years ago and a 10-year TIPS issued within last 6 months. Both might appear to be valid choices if they mature within a few months of each other and offer similar yields. But beneath the surface, one may be more favorable than the other.  The older TIPS will likely have a much higher inflation-adjusted principal because it accumulated 20 years of inflation adjustments. But the protection against unexpected deflation applies only to the bond’s original face value, which is typically $1,000.  In a prolonged deflationary period, the older bond has much more room for its inflation-adjusted principal to decline before reaching the $1,000 floor. The newer issue, whose adjusted principal is much closer to the $1,000 face value, has less exposure to this risk. Therefore, all else being equal, I’d favor a TIPS with a low inflation-adjusted factor when buying in the secondary market. All things considered, my vote goes to TIPS for long-term “safe” investments, provided the break-even inflation is reasonably low. For secondary market purchases, however, a high inflation-adjustment factor would give me pause.   Sanjib Saha retired early from software engineering to dedicate more time to family and friends, pursue personal development and assist others as a money wellness mentor. Self-taught in investments, he passed the Series 65 licensing exam as a non-industry candidate. Sanjib is the president and cofounder of Dollar Mentor, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization offering free investment and financial education. Follow his nonprofit on LinkedIn, and check out Sanjib’s earlier articles.
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On the Road to Home

WHEN MOST PEOPLE retire, they have a good idea where they’ll live. It might be where they currently reside, or where they vacation, or a place near their children or grandchildren. Whatever the case, there’s usually a limited number of possibilities.

But what if you move to a new city for the last two years of your working life, never vacation in the same place twice, don’t own a vacation home, are childless and—upon retirement—sell your home, sell most of your stuff, pack the rest in a POD and then travel the world for the next year?

In that scenario, which just happens to be one that my wife and I found ourselves in, the world is a blank canvas and identifying a new home becomes just a little more complicated.

One option could have been to review articles such as Kiplinger’s “The Best Places to Retire in the World,” and then plan accordingly. Or maybe a spreadsheet could be created that compares different locations. But instead, Susan and I decided to take a less analytical and more Kerouacian approach. We would hit the road, man, and personally interview cities until one made the scene. Can you dig it?

We, of course, were looking for that perfect candidate—you know, the one with low taxes, modest housing costs, reasonable cost of living, great culture, James Beard award-winning restaurants, outstanding health care and an airport with direct flights to Paris, Tokyo and Hawaii.

I was immediately attracted to cities in Alaska, Florida, Nevada, South Dakota, Texas, Washington and Wyoming for the obvious reason: taxes. All but Washington were summarily dismissed due to the increased possibility of heat stroke, frost bite or cabin fever. Even Washington was eventually overlooked, because we never made it that far west.

After touring cities like Ann Arbor and Boulder, I realized that the successful candidate needed a certain amount of grit. Not too much, as there is a fine line between “urban lifestyle” and some half-naked guy screaming obscenities in the middle of the street. I wanted a dynamic interaction of races and cultures, access to decent pizza and some city noise. Not necessarily the sound of gun shots, but maybe a siren every now and again.

In our search for grit, Detroit was interviewed. The city had fallen on hard times and therefore I thought it might make for a strong candidate. It had a decent tax structure, though with much more sprawl than I imagined. The downtown had bottomed out a few years earlier, and was now filled with activity and a significant number of cranes.

In fact, the area was becoming quite fashionable. As it turns out, maybe too fashionable, as real estate prices were soaring. I also happened to interview Pulitzer-prize-winning, man-on-the-street journalist Charlie LeDuff, who informed me that much of the “new” Detroit was a facade, built on debt and endemic corruption.

Denver looked quite promising, with a good tax structure, some grit and no humidity. Unfortunately, the word was out, and property values reflected it, plus it was too late in life to learn to ski or develop a daily skin-care regimen.

[caption id="attachment_1540498" align="alignright" width="400"] Pittsburgh, another city the Flacks didn't choose[/caption]

Pittsburgh also looked promising, with affordable real estate, cultural offerings and a fair amount of grit. It’s actually quite picturesque and ranked as the second most “livable city in the U.S.” by The Economist. We visited in the fall and the weather was decent, though locals informed us the winter can be a little “chilly,” with more than a little “precipitation.” And, oh yeah, air quality could be an issue. Still, it was shortlisted.

It was starting to get a little cold, so I figured a little southern sojourn was in order. Savannah was purely an informational interview. I knew going in that it wouldn’t make the cut. Yes, it’s easy to fall in love with the place: the food, the hospitality, the city squares and the laid back way of life. I even found myself looking at real estate. But then a few days of warm, humid weather set me straight, reminding me of my two years in Houston: the four months of fall never made up for the eight months of summer.

After a stopover in Texas to vote, we decided to hunker down in Kansas City to ride out the pandemic. While the tax structure in the Paris of the Plains wasn’t optimal, housing costs were quite reasonable, it had good health care and everybody was really, really nice.

[caption id="attachment_1540497" align="alignright" width="400"] Kansas City, where the wandering Flacks finally settled[/caption]

We ended up falling in love with the neighborhood where we were staying. It had a small town feel, but was located a five-minute walk from a downtown area, and it offered the perfect amount of grit. Unfortunately, none of the houses we looked at was worthy.

But then, just as the interview was drawing to a close, we came across a modern townhouse condo filled with light, a dramatic three-story staircase and an owner who was in a hurry to sell. In the end, the specific house and neighborhood were the deciding factors. Also, it may have been that the road was getting just a little old and we were hankering to put down some roots.

Looking for the perfect retirement location is much like investing in the stock market. All the information is very public, with a never-ending discussion in The Wall Street Journal, Kiplinger and a sizable portion of the internet. Result? Finding that income-tax-free beach community, offering low property taxes, low home values and low cost of living, plus a symphony hall and the Mayo Clinic nearby, is much like finding that wide moat, high-yield, increasing dividend, tax-advantaged security that’s selling at a 13% discount.

You may wonder about the one criterion I didn’t mention during the interview process: politics. When I once mentioned the desire to live in San Francisco, a friend dismissed it as “too liberal.” I agree. But I’d live there in a New York minute if it weren't for the ridiculous cost of living. Before some of you say “exactly,” one thing I learned during the interview process: Almost every city of any size leans just a little to that side of the political spectrum. If you want urban, it comes with the territory.

Michael Flack blogs at AfterActionReport.info. He’s a former naval officer and 20-year veteran of the oil and gas industry. Now retired, Mike enjoys traveling, blogging and spreadsheets. Check out his earlier articles. [xyz-ihs snippet="Donate"]
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How Did You Find Paid Work After Retiring from Your Primary Career?

"Good question. I truly believe everyone and there journeys are different. After 33 years of commission route sales and the hectic pace and hours that went along with it I knew I didn't want to sit around or start a similar rat race in retirement. Living in a smaller town it's all about connections, everybody knows someone so it's fairly easy to find a job. A lot of it is not what you know but who you know. I retired for three days 😂 before starting to work at our Middle School as a teachers aide. After almost fifteen years of that I retired again. I have now worked seasonally for the last eight years in our city's Parks department, enjoying the outdoors at a much slower pace along with no pressure of any kind"
- L H
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Beyond Bank Accounts

I OPENED MY FIRST bank account in the US at a local credit union (CU) close to my workplace. The CU had several convenient offers for employees of our company. With minimal effort, I opened checking and savings accounts, got free checkbooks and a credit card despite having no credit history in the US.

I was so pleased with the convenience that I handled all my banking needs through this CU for many years. That included direct deposit of my salary, payments and withdrawals, a car loan, and certificates of deposit (CDs) as my savings grew. I still maintain my checking account here and occasionally enjoy special favors as a longtime loyal customer.

Eventually, I realized that I earned very little interest from the bank deposits. I shopped around, found other banks with better rates, opened several accounts here and there, and moved my money around.

I felt good about being proactive and getting a better return on my cash reserve. But that feeling was short-lived as I started learning more about personal finance and investments. Tired of chasing yields in bank accounts, I eventually embraced US Treasurys (debt issued and backed by the US Government) as my alternative to savings accounts and CDs.

For those unfamiliar with US Treasurys, think of them as CDs with maturities ranging from four weeks to 30 years. They're widely used as a "safe investment" by individual, institutional and even sovereign investors around the world.

There are some key differences, though. Bank deposits are insured only up to $250,000. US Treasurys, on the other hand, are backed by the full faith and credit of the US Government. Therefore, there is virtually no default risk regardless of the investment amount.

Treasury interest rates, both short-term and long-term, are heavily influenced by monetary policy actions of the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Treasury interest rates directly affect many interest rates we encounter in everyday life: bank accounts, CDs, mortgage, car loans, personal and business loans, and so on.

Treasury interest rates are often higher than comparable bank products. Why? Because the intermediary financial institutions take their cut for operational costs and profits. Result? Suboptimal, or sometimes almost non-existent, interest on bank deposits.

But wait. What if I need my money back?

With bank deposits, I can walk in and withdraw cash from my account. If my money is locked in a CD, I may have to pay a penalty for early withdrawal, but I can still access it fairly quickly. What happens if I'm holding Treasurys? Do I need to wait until maturity?

That leads us to another important aspect of US Treasurys: their extremely high liquidity.

I can certainly buy newly issued Treasurys and wait until maturity, but I don't have to wait for these events. Investors around the world buy and sell Treasurys in the open market every day, making them one of the most liquid investments in existence.

Their liquidity, safety and meaningful return make Treasurys a compelling alternative for both short- and long-term cash reserves.

Sounds interesting? That's exactly how I felt after doing my own research. All I needed to figure out was the best way to invest in them.

Instead of buying Treasurys directly from the US Treasury, I use my brokerage accounts and buy and sell individual Treasurys or Treasury exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the open market, just like stocks or funds. (I used to participate in Treasury auctions through the brokerage account to buy new issues and set my holdings to auto-roll upon maturity, but I eventually stopped doing that to keep things simple.)

For annual expenses and short-term cash needs, I like short-term, highly liquid, Treasury ETFs with a practically negligible expense ratio.

For money expected in three to four years, I favor short- and intermediate-term Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) ETFs. TIPS have a lower interest rate compared to equivalent regular Treasurys, but their principal is adjusted with inflation, helping mitigate the risk of unexpected inflation.

For cash reserves further into the future, five years or more, my preference is a ladder of individual TIPS bonds, each maturing in a specific future year. Bond trading is slightly more involved than ETFs or stocks, so target-maturity TIPS ETFs can also be a reasonable alternative despite their slightly higher management fees.

Is there a catch compared to keeping money in conventional bank accounts?

I can't think of any, but there are two noticeable differences worth understanding.

First, unlike money sitting in bank accounts, Treasury investments fluctuate in value because they constantly change hands in open markets. For short-term Treasurys, the fluctuations are usually tiny. For intermediate- and long-term Treasurys, the swing can be more noticeable, especially when there's a major change in the interest rate expectation. Thankfully, these fluctuations are usually modest, and over time Treasurys often come out ahead compared to bank deposits.

The second difference deserves a bit more attention.

With a bank account, you can get hold of your money almost immediately. Treasury investments, however, may take a couple of business days to turn into spendable cash. You need to sell the ETF or bond during market hours. Once the transaction settles, usually the next business day, the proceeds can then be transferred out to the checking account for spending. In some cases, you may be able to carry on your spending activities directly from the brokerage account.

Over time, I shifted most of my liquid savings to Treasurys because of the improved result. Yet I still see many people leaving large cash balances in bank products or chasing yields from one bank to another.

I suspect the main reason is simple: lack of familiarity with US Treasurys.

  Sanjib Saha retired early from software engineering to dedicate more time to family and friends, pursue personal development and assist others as a money wellness mentor. Self-taught in investments, he passed the Series 65 licensing exam as a non-industry candidate. Sanjib is the president and cofounder of Dollar Mentor, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization offering free investment and financial education. Follow his nonprofit on LinkedIn, and check out Sanjib’s earlier articles.
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This would be a great posting on a web site with the name “HaughtyDollar.”

"Dick, the opinions and assertions you stated in your original post would have been just as valid (or invalid) years ago. Adjusting for inflation and the increase in the number of card holders, over time the average credit card balance has been flat for decades. In fact the percent of consumer credit card debt as a share of disposable income is lower than it was ten and even twenty years ago. In short, the type of consumer credit behavior that you would approve of, has improved ever so slightly the last thirty years. Despite the undeniable debt wastage you decry, I am saddened by - and "haughty" while not a bullseye hits close to the mark I'm afraid - the statement: “I think it can be summarized, in most cases, as poor financial planning and irresponsible behavior.” You nor I can, in all fairness, summarize "most" of the millions of cases and judge them as "irresponsible". Consider putting down the broad brush. Rest your ever-sensitive hackles. Walk with your beloved wife along the sandy Cape beach and let thoughts of credit cards, shopping carts, and social security recede with tide into the great ocean. With much care and respect, Mark"
- Retired
Read more »

Bad Maths, Good Fire.

"One part of living well, in my opinion!"
- Dave Melick
Read more »

You Heel!

"We visited Nova Scotia in May. We pretty much apologized for the adversarial political behavior whenever we were forced to disclose we were from the US. The uniform reply was something to the effect that "we know it's not you, because we used to visit there a lot, and everyone is so nice"."
- Jeff Bond
Read more »

A Place At The Table

"Yes, Andrew (and everyone), traveling while young shouldn’t be limited to those from well-off families but it takes an open mind on the part of the parents to let their children travel with non-family members, plus dedicated teachers or coaches to organize the fundraising. But it’s true that such trips, whether they are for sightseeing, attending classes or engaging in some kind of helping project, are life changing for the kids, usually teenagers."
- Linda Grady
Read more »

Blood Money

"I agree with you about KO but XOM is involved in climate deception since it knew about global warming risks 60 years ago and ranks as one of the top global greenhouse gas polluters."
- Nick Politakis
Read more »

Americans and their credit cards

"More than 60% of Americans self-report in surveys that they live needing their next paycheck to cover their monthly bills. This may be more a reflection of the economic pressure that working Americans feel at the gas pump, grocery store and doctor's office. A study by Bankrate instead placed that P-to-P figure at 34%, and pointed out the varying definitions of the term "paycheck to paycheck." The Federal Reserve found that 54% of American households have emergency savings to cover three months of expenses, which means of course that almost half do not. However, the fanciful idea that the lowest income quartile can lift themselves out with "prudence" would only be publicly expressed by someone who has never seriously conversed with a member of that quartile. One morning -- just one -- of volunteer work at one's local food bank would promptly dismiss that idea forever, but one must be willing to expose oneself to real life for that to happen."
- Mike Gaynes
Read more »

The Intentional Spendthrift

"I totally agree Andrews. Once the plane’s wheels touch down at our destination it’s do whatever we want to do and the cost is what it is. We don’t give it one thought. We are truly blessed to be in this situation. Next week we are heading to the UK and have prepaid for flights, hotels, trains, and entrance fees. Those are the expensive components of vacation, and already paid for. After that it’s primarily food which usually involves a big breakfast at the hotel (more often the not included in the hotel bill already paid), a snack during the day, and then dinner. So the main cost when we arrive is just dinner."
- DavidHLancaster
Read more »

Feeling TIPSy?

NOT TOO LONG ago, Treasury Inflation Protected Security (TIPS) was a relatively obscure investment for safe long-term fixed-income investments. For the first twenty years of the new century, consumer prices were mostly stable or rising at a too-slow-to-notice rate. Why bother with anything related to inflation? Sadly, persistently low inflation made us complacent on the biggest long-term risk of bond investments -- the insidious unexpected inflation that robs us of the purchasing power of our “safe” investments. Yes, let’s not forget that the biggest risk of bond or bond-like investments is unexpected inflation. Any bond or CD with a maturity beyond a few years must either offer a sufficiently high interest rate to compensate for sudden bouts of inflation, or have its principal adjusted for the inflation actually realized. The former is nearly impossible to find without sacrificing safety. The latter is what TIPS is for. To be clear, the market and investors always expect some level of inflation. Therefore, a bond’s effective interest rate - measured by its YTM (Yield to Maturity) - must be high enough to not only compensate for “expected” inflation and the uncertainties around it but also provide a meaningful increase in the purchasing power of the original principal.  A concrete example might help. Consider a 10-year US Treasury nominal bond with a face value of $1,000, selling at $1,000 and paying 5% annual interest. The interest rate reflects the expectations about inflation and other factors over the next 10 years. The rate would be lower if market expected lower inflation, and higher if market expected the opposite. The omnipresence of inflation means we’re likely to lose some purchasing power when we get our $1,000 in 10 years. It won’t buy what $1,000 buys today. By how much? That’s the thousand dollars question (pun intended).  There isn’t a readily available number that explains why that 10-year Treasury Bond yields 5% instead of 3% or 7%. Investors essentially take a leap of faith that annual inflation stays low enough over the 10-year period for the interim interests to compensate for the purchasing power loss, plus some changes. Most of us are perfectly comfortable assuming that inflation won’t be as high as 5% for 10 years. But are we fooling ourselves? I suggest using an inflation calculator to see for ourselves. Spoiler alert: Late 1960s through early 1980s can be an eye-opening period. How’d we feel if the next 10 years turn out to be something similar? Think about how you might feel when you safekeep your money in a so-called secure investment, give up higher returns available from risky investments, and then encounter an inflationary regime. Your minimum expectation was that your purchasing power would remain intact and perhaps improve a little by the time your bond matures. Instead, unforeseen inflation erodes your purchasing power and compromises the financial goal the fund was supposed to cover.  Your “safe” investment fails you completely. You realize that it wasn’t safe at all.  If unexpected inflation is so devastating, why are we so lax about it?  I can think of two reasons.  First, our minds haven’t adapted to the reality that, unlike to a “real” asset like a bag of rice or a gallon of gasoline, money in its current form is inherently self-eroding. It slowly loses its worth over time. A hundred dollars sitting around will still be a hundred dollars next year, but it won’t buy the same amount. We don’t intuitively perceive the continuous loss of purchasing power. Even when we do internalize it with some effort, we get used to the “pace” of the loss. In other words, we view inflation as steady and unexpected inflation as highly unlikely. Alas, all it takes is a single prolonged inflationary period to change that perception. By then, however, the damage to existing fixed income investments may already be done. Frankly, I’d be very wary of keeping my long-term “safe” money -- fund that I need to preserve beyond a three-year horizon - in any form that isn’t protected against unexpected inflation. For bond investments, the most meaningful option would be TIPS. Why? Because, in addition to being secured by the full faith and credit of the US Government just like any other Treasury securities, TIPS provides three important assurances upfront. First, it provides protection against unexpected inflation, which is a realized inflation that differs from what we expected when purchasing it. If the actual inflation averages 12% instead of the expected 2%, the principal is automatically adjusted to reflect the actual inflation. No guesswork or unexpected risk involved. Second, it provides a “real interest rate” upfront that tells us how much the purchasing power of the investment will increase over time, regardless of what the actual inflation turns out to be. Buying a 10-year TIPS with real 2% annual interest means the investment’s purchasing power will grow 2% per year over the holding period, before considering taxes and other factors. The third aspect is more nuanced. It involves the possibility of inflation being lower than expected, or even negative inflation (aka deflation). Let me elaborate. If a regular nominal 10-year Treasury Bond offers 5% annual yield and an equivalent TIPS offers a real annual interest rate of 2.75%, the market-implied inflation, the breakeven inflation rate, is roughly 2.25% (5% minus 2.75%). Actual inflation, of course, will be known only after 10 years when the bond matures. Suppose the actual inflation turns out to be only 1.25%. The nominal Bond investor would end up with more purchasing power than the TIPS investor because the TIPS principle would be adjusted by only the actual 1.25% inflation rate.  The primary objective of the TIPS investor would still have been met: preserving and improving purchasing power by about 2.75% annually. But there would be a “missed opportunity”. The nominal Treasury investor would end up with even greater purchasing power. Does it mean that a TIPS investor can face an unlimited opportunity cost if inflation turns out to be negative? What happens if the actual inflation is, hypothetically speaking, negative 5%, in a severely deflationary period? Does the TIPS investor get back proportionately reduced principal at maturity? Thanks to the third assurance of TIPS, the answer is NO.  TIPS guarantees that the principal returned at maturity will never fall below the original face value. During periods of deflation, the inflation-adjusted principal can fall below its face value and the interim interest payments will decline accordingly. But at maturity, the principal is floored at the original principal amount. Therefore, the breakeven inflation rate, the difference between the yield of a nominal Treasury bond and the real yield of an equivalent TIPS, represents the maximum annual yield advantage that the nominal bond can have over TIPS in an unexpectedly low inflation regime.  To summarize, a TIPS investor gets unlimited protection against unexpectedly high inflation, while accepting a limited opportunity cost should the actual inflation be low or even negative. The magnitude of that trade-off is reflected in the breakeven inflation rate at the time of the TIPS purchase.  An aside: given the destructive impact of deflation on economy and society, policy makers are generally more concerned about preventing prolonged deflation than about preventing modest inflation. Therefore, prolonged deflation is usually considered less likely. Still, we cannot ignore deflation risk altogether and should be prepared for the possibility that TIPS can underperform a nominal bond if inflation runs low.  Therefore, the decision to favor TIPS over an equivalent nominal Bond hinges in part on the current breakeven inflation rate. If it’s low enough, favoring TIPS can be an easy decision. Getting unlimited protection against unexpectedly high inflation is worth accepting the relatively small opportunity cost if inflation comes below the breakeven rate. There is, however, a cautionary note about buying TIPS bonds in the secondary market, especially older issues. Consider a 30-year TIPS bond issued 20 years ago and a 10-year TIPS issued within last 6 months. Both might appear to be valid choices if they mature within a few months of each other and offer similar yields. But beneath the surface, one may be more favorable than the other.  The older TIPS will likely have a much higher inflation-adjusted principal because it accumulated 20 years of inflation adjustments. But the protection against unexpected deflation applies only to the bond’s original face value, which is typically $1,000.  In a prolonged deflationary period, the older bond has much more room for its inflation-adjusted principal to decline before reaching the $1,000 floor. The newer issue, whose adjusted principal is much closer to the $1,000 face value, has less exposure to this risk. Therefore, all else being equal, I’d favor a TIPS with a low inflation-adjusted factor when buying in the secondary market. All things considered, my vote goes to TIPS for long-term “safe” investments, provided the break-even inflation is reasonably low. For secondary market purchases, however, a high inflation-adjustment factor would give me pause.   Sanjib Saha retired early from software engineering to dedicate more time to family and friends, pursue personal development and assist others as a money wellness mentor. Self-taught in investments, he passed the Series 65 licensing exam as a non-industry candidate. Sanjib is the president and cofounder of Dollar Mentor, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization offering free investment and financial education. Follow his nonprofit on LinkedIn, and check out Sanjib’s earlier articles.
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On the Road to Home

WHEN MOST PEOPLE retire, they have a good idea where they’ll live. It might be where they currently reside, or where they vacation, or a place near their children or grandchildren. Whatever the case, there’s usually a limited number of possibilities.

But what if you move to a new city for the last two years of your working life, never vacation in the same place twice, don’t own a vacation home, are childless and—upon retirement—sell your home, sell most of your stuff, pack the rest in a POD and then travel the world for the next year?

In that scenario, which just happens to be one that my wife and I found ourselves in, the world is a blank canvas and identifying a new home becomes just a little more complicated.

One option could have been to review articles such as Kiplinger’s “The Best Places to Retire in the World,” and then plan accordingly. Or maybe a spreadsheet could be created that compares different locations. But instead, Susan and I decided to take a less analytical and more Kerouacian approach. We would hit the road, man, and personally interview cities until one made the scene. Can you dig it?

We, of course, were looking for that perfect candidate—you know, the one with low taxes, modest housing costs, reasonable cost of living, great culture, James Beard award-winning restaurants, outstanding health care and an airport with direct flights to Paris, Tokyo and Hawaii.

I was immediately attracted to cities in Alaska, Florida, Nevada, South Dakota, Texas, Washington and Wyoming for the obvious reason: taxes. All but Washington were summarily dismissed due to the increased possibility of heat stroke, frost bite or cabin fever. Even Washington was eventually overlooked, because we never made it that far west.

After touring cities like Ann Arbor and Boulder, I realized that the successful candidate needed a certain amount of grit. Not too much, as there is a fine line between “urban lifestyle” and some half-naked guy screaming obscenities in the middle of the street. I wanted a dynamic interaction of races and cultures, access to decent pizza and some city noise. Not necessarily the sound of gun shots, but maybe a siren every now and again.

In our search for grit, Detroit was interviewed. The city had fallen on hard times and therefore I thought it might make for a strong candidate. It had a decent tax structure, though with much more sprawl than I imagined. The downtown had bottomed out a few years earlier, and was now filled with activity and a significant number of cranes.

In fact, the area was becoming quite fashionable. As it turns out, maybe too fashionable, as real estate prices were soaring. I also happened to interview Pulitzer-prize-winning, man-on-the-street journalist Charlie LeDuff, who informed me that much of the “new” Detroit was a facade, built on debt and endemic corruption.

Denver looked quite promising, with a good tax structure, some grit and no humidity. Unfortunately, the word was out, and property values reflected it, plus it was too late in life to learn to ski or develop a daily skin-care regimen.

[caption id="attachment_1540498" align="alignright" width="400"] Pittsburgh, another city the Flacks didn't choose[/caption]

Pittsburgh also looked promising, with affordable real estate, cultural offerings and a fair amount of grit. It’s actually quite picturesque and ranked as the second most “livable city in the U.S.” by The Economist. We visited in the fall and the weather was decent, though locals informed us the winter can be a little “chilly,” with more than a little “precipitation.” And, oh yeah, air quality could be an issue. Still, it was shortlisted.

It was starting to get a little cold, so I figured a little southern sojourn was in order. Savannah was purely an informational interview. I knew going in that it wouldn’t make the cut. Yes, it’s easy to fall in love with the place: the food, the hospitality, the city squares and the laid back way of life. I even found myself looking at real estate. But then a few days of warm, humid weather set me straight, reminding me of my two years in Houston: the four months of fall never made up for the eight months of summer.

After a stopover in Texas to vote, we decided to hunker down in Kansas City to ride out the pandemic. While the tax structure in the Paris of the Plains wasn’t optimal, housing costs were quite reasonable, it had good health care and everybody was really, really nice.

[caption id="attachment_1540497" align="alignright" width="400"] Kansas City, where the wandering Flacks finally settled[/caption]

We ended up falling in love with the neighborhood where we were staying. It had a small town feel, but was located a five-minute walk from a downtown area, and it offered the perfect amount of grit. Unfortunately, none of the houses we looked at was worthy.

But then, just as the interview was drawing to a close, we came across a modern townhouse condo filled with light, a dramatic three-story staircase and an owner who was in a hurry to sell. In the end, the specific house and neighborhood were the deciding factors. Also, it may have been that the road was getting just a little old and we were hankering to put down some roots.

Looking for the perfect retirement location is much like investing in the stock market. All the information is very public, with a never-ending discussion in The Wall Street Journal, Kiplinger and a sizable portion of the internet. Result? Finding that income-tax-free beach community, offering low property taxes, low home values and low cost of living, plus a symphony hall and the Mayo Clinic nearby, is much like finding that wide moat, high-yield, increasing dividend, tax-advantaged security that’s selling at a 13% discount.

You may wonder about the one criterion I didn’t mention during the interview process: politics. When I once mentioned the desire to live in San Francisco, a friend dismissed it as “too liberal.” I agree. But I’d live there in a New York minute if it weren't for the ridiculous cost of living. Before some of you say “exactly,” one thing I learned during the interview process: Almost every city of any size leans just a little to that side of the political spectrum. If you want urban, it comes with the territory.

Michael Flack blogs at AfterActionReport.info. He’s a former naval officer and 20-year veteran of the oil and gas industry. Now retired, Mike enjoys traveling, blogging and spreadsheets. Check out his earlier articles. [xyz-ihs snippet="Donate"]
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Free Newsletter

Get Educated

Manifesto

NO. 34: FIGURING out what we ought to do with our money is relatively easy. Getting ourselves to do it is hard. Victory goes not to the smartest, but to the most disciplined.

Truths

NO. 97: IT’S HARD to say “no” to our adult children if they get into financial trouble—which is why we should try to raise money-savvy kids. But how? Set a good example. Talk regularly about your own finances. Tell your kids about your lean early adult years. Involve them in family financial decisions. Encourage them to save up for larger purchases.

think

HABIT FORMATION. To improve our behavior—financial and otherwise—we need to turn our desired good behavior into habits. That might require doing the right thing daily for perhaps two months. To get through this transition period, helpful strategies include sharing our resolutions with others, visualizing our goals and automating our savings program.

act

RENT OUT YOUR HOME for 14 days or less each year. If you stay under this limit, you don’t have to pay taxes on the income you receive, though you also can’t deduct any expenses you incur. Such short-term rentals can be lucrative if, say, you live near a major annual sporting event or near a college where hotel rooms are in short supply during graduation.

Basics

Manifesto

NO. 34: FIGURING out what we ought to do with our money is relatively easy. Getting ourselves to do it is hard. Victory goes not to the smartest, but to the most disciplined.

Spotlight: Saving

Trump Accounts

INNOVATION IN THE world of retirement plans is decidedly slow moving. But as of July 4th, investors now have a new savings option known as a Trump account. In short, these are retirement accounts designed specifically for children.
Trump accounts share some similarities with traditional individual retirement accounts (IRAs), but there are also key differences. If you have children, grandchildren, nieces or nephews, this new option may be worth exploring.
Who is eligible for a Trump account?

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HSA Tips

HEALTH SAVINGS ACCOUNT (HSA) is the most efficient tax-advantaged investment account because it offers a triple tax advantage:

Contributions are tax-deductible
Earnings grow tax-free
Withdrawals are tax-free if used for medical expenses

One of the best uses of an HSA is to actually invest the balance.
For example, I keep $500 (the minimum required balance) in cash. The rest, I invest in low-cost index funds. This allows me to maximize compounding inside the HSA account.

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Navigating the Unknowns of Financial Decisions

WHEN IT COMES to financial decisions, there are, as I’ve argued before, two answers to every question: what the calculator says, and how you feel about it. There’s a fly in the ointment, though: Calculator answers might appear to be based in logic, but they’re still imperfect.
Why?
Ian Wilson, a former executive at General Electric, explained it this way: “No amount of sophistication is going to allay the fact that all knowledge is about the past,

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Money and Me

JONATHAN CLEMENTS’S final book was released this week. Titled Money and Me, it traces the arc of Jonathan’s nearly four-decade career as a personal finance columnist.
Money and Me starts with the story of a man named George Cope, who was a nineteenth century tobacco baron. At the time of his death in 1888, Cope was one of Britain’s richest men. But within just two generations, his fortune was gone.

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Personal Finance Reading List

LOOKING FORWARD TO some downtime over the holidays? Below are some favorite new personal finance books and articles to consider for your reading list.
A Richer Retirement by William Bengen – Back in the 1990s, financial planner William Bengen developed what’s come to be known as the 4% rule. It’s a framework to help retirees determine a sustainable portfolio withdrawal rate. This year, Bengen updated and expanded his research. The most compelling addition: Bengen addresses the question of asset allocation.

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Completing 401(k) Contributions Early

When you make out the form to contribute some of your income for a 401K or Roth 401K, your HR department will default to setting equal deductions for each pay period in the year. However, you can change this.
You can request a larger dollar amount per pay period so that your 401K contribution is complete before year end.
This can be helpful if you may be leaving your job, voluntarily or involuntarily, before year end.

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Spotlight: Forsythe

Making Contact

I TURN 70 IN JANUARY and my wife just turned 65. I recently applied for my Social Security benefits, and got her kicked off with Medicare. I needed to call both agencies. What a contrast I’ve seen in their responsiveness. As I’ve conceded before, I’m a bit of a fanatic when it comes to this topic. We set up my wife’s online Medicare account, and she designated me as her “authorized representative.” Like most couples, we divide the labor, and one of my assignments is handling all medical and insurance accounts. I wanted to pay her premiums quarterly, and have them align with my premium payment schedule. That required first changing her payments to monthly for one month, and then back to quarterly. For the sake of bill paying convenience, I gave it a whirl. I called Medicare, got the usual robot, and chose the “call back” option. I received a call within minutes. The rep immediately saw my “authorized representative” designation, understood my request, and said it would be sent to the “Advanced Resolution Center” for action. Eight days later, I called back and spoke to a different rep, who was equally polite and helpful. He told me my request had been granted and my wife’s billing would now be monthly. As soon as I received her monthly Medicare bill, I paid it. Then, a few days later, I called Medicare to request a change back to quarterly billing. I spoke with a third rep, who was as polite and helpful as the previous two, and she processed my request. Finally, about a week later, I called Medicare and spoke to a fourth rep, who was likewise courteous and helpful. She confirmed my wife had now been switched back to quarterly billing. I was a happy camper. Now I…
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Weekend Warriors

AH, A SECOND HOME—a fond dream for so many. While we try to justify a weekend house as a “good investment,” they’re often bought to fulfill some emotional need. For some, it’s a beach house. For others, it’s a mountain getaway. But for me, it’s always been a place in the country. I’m an introvert. The prospect of getting away from crowds and noise to a secluded place of peace and quiet is my ideal. After marrying and becoming the father of four, I wasted little time before starting to scout the beautiful Texas Hill Country outside of Austin for our weekend getaway home. On many Saturdays and Sundays, I’d load the younger kids into the car. Promising them a great adventure, we’d head out for a long afternoon spent checking out various rural properties for sale. Our older kids were, by then, completely involved with friends and school activities. Meanwhile, my wife was too smart to go. “Let me know when you find it,” she’d say. My first find was a beautiful 25-acre property on a high hillside with spectacular views and a creek below. I thought it was paradise and we had many fun times there. But it didn’t have a house or even a cabin. We built a spacious covered gazebo on the hilltop, but it still meant camping out if we wanted to spend the night. This didn’t bother me. But when I showed my wife the very comfortable tree trunk in the woods, which I thought made for an exceptional open-air potty, she was not impressed. [xyz-ihs snippet="Holiday-Donate"] So, after a few years, I resumed the search. Lo and behold, I stumbled on another incredible place: 83 acres with great views, beautiful trees and half a mile of good creek. Though it was considerably farther…
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Try to Remember

I’m not much of a musicals guy, but I’ve always loved the song “Try to Remember” from The Fantasticks. Maybe it’s because as a kid growing up in Dallas, my parents took me to see a local production of the show. It ran 42 straight years off-Broadway, quite a record. The first and best version of the song was by Jerry Orbach, who most folks know as the sarcastic cop Lenny from Law and Order. But he was also quite a singer and all round performer. As we get older, trying to remember is a more frequent chore. At age 72, I find that while my long term memory is good, short term is more problematic (Why exactly did I just go upstairs?). Some try drugs such as Prevagen. But scandals in that product’s past give pause. I’ve been a “list man” forever, and always have a current list of things I need to do over the upcoming days, weeks, and even months. If I’m sitting at my desk, I might quickly jot down a list of 4 or 5 things I need to do in the next few hours. But sometimes it’s just not practical to make a written list of a few things you need to keep front of mind. Long ago I read a couple of books about memory whizzes and all the tricks they use to accomplish their feats. There was a lot of emphasis placed on using the Memory Palace technique. While I’m sure that’s a formidable way to memorize a long list of items, for that type of chore I’m going to use a written list. I’m more interested in being able to keep 3 or 4 or 5 things on my mind when jotting them down isn’t practical---say when wanting to remember a few things…
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Heightened Interest

I TEND TO KEEP MORE cash than the average investor, so the recent rise in interest rates paid on savings has my attention. In fact, 2022’s pitiful performance by bonds has caused me to shift even more money into cash. We have online savings accounts at CIT Bank, Synchrony, Marcus and American Express. CIT is currently paying 3.25%, Synchrony 3%, Marcus 3% and American Express 2.75%. The rates have climbed so frequently this year that they’ll probably be higher by the time you read this. We also have cash stashed in Charles Schwab’s Value Advantage Fund (symbol: SWVXX) and Vanguard Group’s Cash Reserves Federal Money Market Fund (VMRXX). The Schwab fund pays 3.7% and the Vanguard fund 3.6%. These being money market mutual funds, rather than money market bank accounts, they don’t enjoy FDIC insurance protection. They also don’t guarantee a constant $1 share price, though instances of "breaking the buck" are extraordinarily rare. I recently read of an online bank offering as high as 3.6%, but I’m sticking with my current lineup for now. I try to weigh the hassle and bookkeeping cost of a new account against the benefit of a slightly higher interest rate. It takes a little doing, but once you get your accounts set up and linked to one another, it’s simple to transfer money back and forth as one bank or another raises its rates. I don’t go to the trouble of a transfer just to obtain a modestly higher rate. But with the recent frequent and significant increases, there’s often been enough of a difference to make it worthwhile. Occasionally, a bank will pay extra to keep you from moving money out. Not long ago, I let a bank know of my intentions to shift my money and asked if it had any…
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Amazon (Almost) for Free

Do you write reviews for items you buy from Amazon? Most people probably don’t bother. But I do at times, especially if I find a particular purchase to be either great or horrible. Although the ways of the Amazon Vine program are mysterious, I’m guessing that’s why last October I was invited to join. The Vine program allows members to pick from a daily and ever changing menu of Amazon items to receive for free. In exchange, members are required to write reviews for at least 60% of the items received. There’s a footnote to the “free” part: Amazon sends a 1099 at year end to the IRS listing the total taxable value of the items you received. You’re then responsible for paying income tax on that amount. For food and certain medical items, though, Amazon assigns a zero taxable value. So, not quite free, but seriously discounted. Amazon merchants choose to participate in Vine if they’re launching a new product and are eager to get some early reviews posted. My feeling is that if I’m getting the items (almost) for free, I should try to review every one, not just 60%. Since October, I’ve received 46 items and I’ve reviewed 45. The one review lacking is for a TENS/EMS electrical stimulation device that I thought might be helpful for my wife’s leg and hip arthritis. Somehow she never seems to be available to try it out, maybe because she’s afraid I’ll dial the current up too high! So what kind of items have I received over the last 8 months? It’s an extremely wide ranging list, and includes a dog bed, chair cushions, bolt cutters, a table lamp and a floor lamp, a knife block, a flashlight, steel toe boots, 2 stainless steel garden hoses, Italian biscotti, a carving…
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Tale of Two Refunds

A FEW DAYS AGO, I drove up to a JP Morgan Chase ATM to make a cash withdrawal. The infernal machine not only wouldn’t spit out the cash or a receipt, but also it was a struggle even to get my card back. I parked and went inside, expecting a quick resolution. The teller told me that she could see on her computer that my account was dinged for the cash withdrawal. But she also told me that the ATMs are managed by a third-party vendor, so they couldn’t do anything to help me there at the branch. In fact, they couldn’t even hang a sign on the ATM warning that it was unavailable—even though another customer had had a similar problem earlier that day. Instead, I was forced to go home and call Chase to report the problem. After an hour on the phone, including endless robot obstructions and a couple of disconnections, I finally got the customer claims department, where I could report the issue and initiate a claim. A few days later, I received a credit for the erroneous ATM debit. Meanwhile, I’ve also been a customer, occasional seller and big fan of eBay since 2001. Around the same time as my Chase problem, I was having an issue with an eBay seller. There was no tracking information on my order. The seller stopped responding to messages. And then came the big one: The seller was now showing as “no longer a registered user.” Even though my purchase was only a few days late, I decided this stunk to high heaven and I wasn’t going to wait. Unlike with Chase, there was no need to call and speak to someone. I just clicked a button to report a problem with the transaction. I requested a refund and…
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