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Close to Everything I Need

I DON’T HAVE MANY regrets in life. But there is one conversation with my mother that I wish I had never had. It was about moving her into an assisted living facility. She was in her 90s, and I thought it would be best for both of us. My mother would receive better care, and I could take much-needed breaks. She could even keep her house and spend time there when I was with her. It seemed like a middle-of-the-road approach to providing care. I thought it was a win-win situation for both of us. But I couldn't convince my mother to leave the home she had lived in for 42 years. She would ask me questions like, “How far my bed would be from the front door?” I was beginning to understand that she was afraid of moving to an unfamiliar place. It was simply too much to ask of her.  About six weeks later, my mother had a heart attack. She passed away a week afterward in a rehabilitation facility after being discharged from the hospital. Looking back, I sometimes wonder if our discussions about assisted living were harder on her than I realized. It's something I've thought about many times since. After reaching age 75 and coming closer to the possibility of needing more care myself, I now have a better understanding of why my mother wanted to age in place. She valued the familiarity and emotional comfort of her home. She knew exactly how far her bed was from the front door. She maintained relationships with neighbors who would stop by to chat and share a glass of wine. She also knew the people at the stores and restaurants she visited regularly. A few of them even attended her funeral. All of her doctors were nearby. She would often say, "I'm close to everything I need." Recently, when I was experiencing problems with my eyesight, I've felt more vulnerable. One day, while having lunch with my wife, I brought up the topic of how we might receive care in our later years. As soon as I mentioned assisted living, Rachel grew quiet and a sad look came over her face. I've seen that look before. At that moment, I realized I was hearing the same concern I had heard from my mother years earlier. They were thinking about leaving behind a familiar life and moving to a place where everything would be different. My wife and my mother are not alone. About three-quarters of Americans over age 50 say they want to remain in their current homes as they age. I count myself among them. Part of our long-term care planning is an effort to preserve the life we've built here for as long as possible. It's not an easy decision because none of us knows what our future health will look like. Aging in place offers advantages, but it also involves risks. If we need only limited assistance, staying in our home could be significantly less expensive than moving to a senior living community, especially since our mortgage is paid off. We can purchase only the services we need—housekeeping, meal delivery, transportation, or occasional home health care—and adjust that support as circumstances change. At the same time, we retain ownership of our home and any future appreciation in its value. That equity remains available if we eventually need more extensive care. Of course, there is no guarantee that our health will cooperate. Serious illnesses or cognitive decline could create care needs that are difficult or expensive to manage at home. That's one reason some people choose a continuing care retirement community (CCRC), which offers a continuum of care and contracts that can provide insurance-like protection against future long-term care costs. For us, the decision comes down to a tradeoff: Do we value maximum independence and flexibility today, or do we value having a built-in care system already in place for the future? For now, we're taking a hybrid approach. We plan to remain in our home through our 70s and early 80s. We're in reasonably good health, and my eyesight is no longer a major issue. We are planning to invest in accessibility improvements, including a stair lift to our upstairs master bedroom, grab bars in the bathrooms, and brighter lighting. Our house already has a walk-in shower, doorways and hallways wide enough for a walker, and space for a caregiver if one is ever needed. In addition, we’re setting aside a dedicated reserve of 20% of our investment portfolio to help cover future care needs. Most people do not spend years in a nursing home. As a result, we're not trying to fund the most expensive long-term-care scenario imaginable. Instead, we're setting aside enough money to cover the most likely care needs without significantly affecting our lifestyle. If we encounter a more extreme situation, we still have the remainder of our portfolio and the equity in our home available. That’s just basic financial planning: managing risk to a comfortable level instead of spending a fortune to eliminate it completely. We'll reevaluate our situation every few years and remain open to moving to a CCRC or assisted living community if health, mobility, or caregiving needs increase significantly. There may come a day when Rachel and I decide that a CCRC or assisted living community is the right choice. None of us can predict the future, and flexibility has value. But I now understand something I didn't fully appreciate when my mother was alive. A home is more than a place to live. It is a collection of routines, relationships, memories, and comforts that become increasingly important as we grow older. My mother knew that instinctively. She wasn't being stubborn. She was protecting a life she loved and a sense of independence that mattered deeply to her. When she told me she was close to everything she needed, she wasn't talking about stores, restaurants, or doctors. She was talking about belonging. It took me years to understand what she meant. If I had understood it sooner, our conversations about assisted living might have been very different.   Dennis Friedman retired from Boeing Satellite Systems after a 30-year career in manufacturing. Born in Ohio, Dennis is a California transplant with a bachelor’s degree in history and an MBA. A self-described “humble investor,” he likes reading historical novels and about personal finance. Follow Dennis on X @DMFrie and check out his earlier articles
Read more »

Financial Planning

"For those of us with most assets inside IRAs, I think this idea has merit."
- Dan Smith
Read more »

The Solitaire Solution

"For those of you who track storms during hurricane season, the day-by-day impact area expands due to the uncertainty factors folded into the Monte Carlo analysis used to track the most likely path."
- Jeff Bond
Read more »

How do you prepare for the long term care cost as retiree?

"Ten years ago I bought a One-America Hybrid LTC policy which embodies the concept of "self-funding". The policy is essentially a second-to-die life insurance policy. I put down a lump sum and pay an annual premium to ensure the benefits never expire. If not completely spent for LTC the remaining funds will be paid to survivors. The premiums are fixed. They are not inflation-adjusted. The benefits will be non-taxable. Having this policy on my balance sheet protects the rest of my investment portfolio. I wrote the policy myself and did for a handful of other friends. I am no longer working but the policy is in force and there have been no rate increases as the policy was not underpriced at the start."
- James Mcglynn
Read more »

The S Word

SOCIALISM. IT'S A WORD that can make people on the far left swoon, as they imagine an egalitarian utopia, even while inciting those on the far right to mumble protective oaths like a medieval citizen seeing a sign of the devil. It’s also a word that Google Trends reports has had a surge in search-related interest since last December. As competing visions of how to protect and enhance the American economic system vie for political popularity, the word is used to both support and condemn proposals. Problem is, it’s been stretched, pulled, interpreted and manhandled so much that two people debating the merits of socialism may not even be discussing the same thing. That’s not good if our goal is calm, cool deliberation, rather than emotional, knee-jerk confrontation. Let’s take a step back and revisit some basic economic concepts. Economics is the study of how we make choices. Economic systems are defined by who gets to make those choices. In their purest form, there are three such systems: Free market economy. Individuals, most notably buyers and sellers, make the decisions. They negotiate price and quality. Life is improved, famously, by the “invisible hand” of the competitive market. Its advantage is that it allows maximum freedom, sets an immediate, rational value to things, and inspires capital investment and innovation. The downside is that it’s predicated on a delicate balance of power between buyers and sellers, which—if thrown off—can subvert the system, as happens when someone has a monopoly. In addition, the system is prone to making more short-term, individual-benefitting decisions, rather than long-term choices that might help us collectively, such as reducing pollution or improving mass transportation. Command economy. In this model, decisions are made by those with political power. This is the category into which socialism falls. But the category also includes regulation by republican forms of government, monarchies and dictatorships. Big picture decisions can be made that have long-term advantages, such as constructing public schools to educate future citizens. If done well, it’s also possible to achieve economies of scale—as happens with public utilities. The downside: Governments are notorious for not doing things well, quickly or without waste. Traditional economy. This is the sleeper one—but, ironically, it has the most decision-makers, because the group consists of all our ancestors and their continuing influence. Why is beef off the menu for one religion and pork off the menu for others? Why are many stores closed on Sunday, or clam chowder red in some parts of the country and white in others, or some clothes just for one gender? These are the cumulative effects of cultural decision-making over time, and we often roll with them. The advantage of this system is that it gives people a framework to work within. It offers the comfort and identity that comes with being part of a group. The downside: Traditional decisions can be the hardest to change, even when they have become antiquated and counterproductive. Which system do we have? What’s the best system? The first question is simple to answer, because it is true for every system ever used: We are a mixed system, predominantly free market, but with elements of the others. Go to a grocery store. The owner decides what to sell and what price he wants to charge, though—aware of the importance of culture—he’ll take into account local area favorites. As customers, our choice is limited by the grocery store’s selection—but we always have the choice to go to another grocery store. We can be fairly confident the food sold is of a minimum health standard set by the government, and we may pay for our purchase with government assistance, because we are elderly, a veteran or poor. In other words, it’s mostly free market, but with aspects of both a command and traditional economy. We can debate what the best balance is between the three. But it’s counterproductive to engage in demonizing and name-calling, and we shouldn’t irrationally condemn any of the historic and vital aspects of what’s become the world’s greatest economy. People on the left have no doubt benefited from wealth earned by entrepreneurs. People on the right have had their lives enhanced, and possibly saved, by government safety standards. And we all love national holidays. Jim Wasserman is a former business litigation attorney who taught economics and humanities for 20 years. His previous articles were Applying PressureFive MistakesSpoonful of Advice and Under the Influence. Jim’s book series on teaching behavioral economics and media literacy,  Media, Marketing, and Me, is being published in 2019. Jim lives in Granada, Spain, with his wife and fellow HumbleDollar contributor, Jiab. Together, they write a blog on retirement, finance and living abroad at YourThirdLife.com. [xyz-ihs snippet="Donate"]
Read more »

Still Teaching

"Mark, an expanded conversation on the subject could be very helpful to people."
- Dan Smith
Read more »

Thinking about downsizing? Think seriously

"Let’s not get carried away. A paper and pencil will do fine."
- R Quinn
Read more »

Many seniors think we paid for our Social Security benefits based on the FICA taxes we paid. Let’s dispel that myth- we didn’t

"Well, inaction has consequences, does it not? If you don't save, you don't have money to spend. It's called self-reliance. Kind of an American thing."
- Bruce Keller
Read more »

What’s in your portfolio ?

"We are invested in various types of REIT as an inflation buffer but because of the taxation issues we put them in our Roth accounts."
- achnk53
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What Addiction Couldn’t Take: My Sister’s Story

"Thank you Sherry for sharing this and for your willingness to help others through your own experience. One of the things I have learned from writing this article is just how many families have been affected by addiction and how often they carry that burden in silence. I appreciate your explanation of Al-Anon and the reminder that addiction affects not only the person struggling, but also those who love them. Your words about finding peace, setting boundaries, and not losing yourself are powerful. Thank you for taking the time to share this resource and for offering hope to those who may still be walking this difficult road."
- Andrew Clements
Read more »

Leverage

"Thanks for your comment. Learning to listen better to my inner voice has been essential to retirement. As "experts" frequently offer seemingly contradictory guidance."
- Catherine
Read more »

Pricing the Future

THE WAY INVESTORS think about the stock market may be entirely wrong. Intuition tells us, and academic research confirms, that a company’s stock price should respond to important news and information. When a company announces a new product, for example, its stock should go up. And when results fall short of expectations, it should decline.  But a new paper titled “The Inefficient Pricing of News” calls this idea into question. The authors found that investors respond much more slowly and inconsistently to market news than previously thought. In some cases, it took a year or more for a stock price to respond.  Why would that be the case? Tony Fadell is often referred to as “the father of the iPod.” For years, he worked side-by-side with Steve Jobs, first developing the iPod, then the iPhone. In a recent interview, Fadell shared details of what the product development process looked like inside Apple, and how the reality on the inside often differed from the way it appeared on the outside. Fadell’s comments can help us understand why stock prices often miss the mark. The nature of competition. Investors, Fadell argued, often have a one-dimensional understanding of companies. As an example, he told the story of the development of the iPhone. When it was first released, many observers dismissed it as an overpriced toy. Unlike the BlackBerry, the dominant mobile device for corporate users at the time, the first iPhone lacked key security features and didn’t have a physical keyboard. As a result, it was perceived as a niche product with narrow appeal. Fadell explained, though, that Apple looked at the market differently. Yes, BlackBerry had a very high market share among business users, but it had only a small share of the overall mobile phone market—just 1% or 2%. Apple was interested in the rest of the market: “What about the other 98% of the people? What would they want?” That was the question Apple was asking internally. Observers on the outside, though, underestimated the iPhone’s potential because they assumed they understood Apple’s competitive objectives. The definition of success. Investors often make another mistake, Fadell said. They use the wrong yardstick in measuring successes and failures. He notes that early versions of both the iPod and the iPhone had significant shortcomings. The first iPod worked only with Apple computers. The first iPhone was underpowered and wasn’t open to outside app developers. The App Store didn’t debut until a year after the iPhone’s release. For all these reasons, early critics continued to underestimate the iPhone’s potential even as it gained market share. But inside Apple, the potential was clear. They knew that all of the core components would get better each year and that cell phone networks would get faster. Fadell, who also invented the Nest thermostat, made this observation: “Everything needs three generations. I’ve never seen anyone get it right the first time.” Wall Street, however, tends to not be that patient, and that can lead to a disconnect between perception and reality in stock prices. Fadell notes that even when a product fails, it can be valuable. Apple learned a lot from the Newton, its first attempt at a mobile device. Similarly, Amazon had a short-lived mobile phone called the Fire. From the outside it was deemed a costly mistake, but Jeff Bezos saw it differently. “You can’t, for one minute, feel bad,” he said. The voice recognition technology Amazon developed for the Fire ultimately turned into Alexa. The bottom line: Wall Street’s obsession with quarterly results can cause investors to use the wrong scorecard, and that’s another reason stock prices can move in the wrong direction. The timeline to profits. Fadell noted that the first iPhone was unprofitable but that this wasn’t a concern. Because sales were increasing, Apple would be able to lower production costs. Together with technology advances, management knew that the product would eventually yield profit. “You make the product, you fix the product, then you fix the business,” Fadell explained. Companies pursuing a new idea are often underestimated because they’re judged prematurely. Consider Amazon. It was unprofitable for almost 10 years after its founding. Why? During that decade, the company was growing quickly, but it reinvested as much as it could into warehouses. The result is that it can now deliver packages to many customers the same day. That may have been Jeff Bezos’s vision from early on, but outside observers couldn’t see the roadmap he had in his desk drawer, and for that reason, Amazon was regularly criticized for its lack of profits. The most notable misjudgment: In 1999, Barron’s magazine ran a cover story with the headline “Amazon.bomb.” How did Barron’s editors get it wrong? They had no idea where the company was headed, and for competitive reasons, Bezos certainly wasn’t going to tip his hand. This pattern repeats frequently, and it’s a key reason why stock prices often end up out of line with a company’s true long-term value. "All overnight success takes about 10 years,” Bezos later commented. Timeline to bankruptcy. Sometimes, Wall Street makes the opposite mistake, failing to see when a company is headed into decline. The most famous example in this category may be Kodak, which was the dominant maker of film for traditional cameras. Remarkably, it was a Kodak engineer who invented the first digital camera all the way back in the 1970s. But recognizing the threat it represented, the company shelved the project. Over the course of the 1980s and 1990s, other companies introduced digital cameras, with the result that, between 1990 and 1997, Kodak’s revenue dropped almost 25%. And yet, throughout that period, its stock kept rising, hitting an all-time high in 1997. Investors just couldn’t appreciate the reality of what was happening. But then, just five years later, Kodak filed for bankruptcy. In general, and on average, stock prices do reflect the value of public companies. But for all the reasons Fadell cites, that relationship is often imperfect. This is a fundamental reason why, in my view, investors are best served by choosing diversified index funds rather than trying to pick individual stocks.   Adam M. Grossman is the founder of Mayport, a fixed-fee wealth management firm. Sign up for Adam's Daily Ideas email, follow him on X @AdamMGrossman and check out his earlier articles.
Read more »

Close to Everything I Need

I DON’T HAVE MANY regrets in life. But there is one conversation with my mother that I wish I had never had. It was about moving her into an assisted living facility. She was in her 90s, and I thought it would be best for both of us. My mother would receive better care, and I could take much-needed breaks. She could even keep her house and spend time there when I was with her. It seemed like a middle-of-the-road approach to providing care. I thought it was a win-win situation for both of us. But I couldn't convince my mother to leave the home she had lived in for 42 years. She would ask me questions like, “How far my bed would be from the front door?” I was beginning to understand that she was afraid of moving to an unfamiliar place. It was simply too much to ask of her.  About six weeks later, my mother had a heart attack. She passed away a week afterward in a rehabilitation facility after being discharged from the hospital. Looking back, I sometimes wonder if our discussions about assisted living were harder on her than I realized. It's something I've thought about many times since. After reaching age 75 and coming closer to the possibility of needing more care myself, I now have a better understanding of why my mother wanted to age in place. She valued the familiarity and emotional comfort of her home. She knew exactly how far her bed was from the front door. She maintained relationships with neighbors who would stop by to chat and share a glass of wine. She also knew the people at the stores and restaurants she visited regularly. A few of them even attended her funeral. All of her doctors were nearby. She would often say, "I'm close to everything I need." Recently, when I was experiencing problems with my eyesight, I've felt more vulnerable. One day, while having lunch with my wife, I brought up the topic of how we might receive care in our later years. As soon as I mentioned assisted living, Rachel grew quiet and a sad look came over her face. I've seen that look before. At that moment, I realized I was hearing the same concern I had heard from my mother years earlier. They were thinking about leaving behind a familiar life and moving to a place where everything would be different. My wife and my mother are not alone. About three-quarters of Americans over age 50 say they want to remain in their current homes as they age. I count myself among them. Part of our long-term care planning is an effort to preserve the life we've built here for as long as possible. It's not an easy decision because none of us knows what our future health will look like. Aging in place offers advantages, but it also involves risks. If we need only limited assistance, staying in our home could be significantly less expensive than moving to a senior living community, especially since our mortgage is paid off. We can purchase only the services we need—housekeeping, meal delivery, transportation, or occasional home health care—and adjust that support as circumstances change. At the same time, we retain ownership of our home and any future appreciation in its value. That equity remains available if we eventually need more extensive care. Of course, there is no guarantee that our health will cooperate. Serious illnesses or cognitive decline could create care needs that are difficult or expensive to manage at home. That's one reason some people choose a continuing care retirement community (CCRC), which offers a continuum of care and contracts that can provide insurance-like protection against future long-term care costs. For us, the decision comes down to a tradeoff: Do we value maximum independence and flexibility today, or do we value having a built-in care system already in place for the future? For now, we're taking a hybrid approach. We plan to remain in our home through our 70s and early 80s. We're in reasonably good health, and my eyesight is no longer a major issue. We are planning to invest in accessibility improvements, including a stair lift to our upstairs master bedroom, grab bars in the bathrooms, and brighter lighting. Our house already has a walk-in shower, doorways and hallways wide enough for a walker, and space for a caregiver if one is ever needed. In addition, we’re setting aside a dedicated reserve of 20% of our investment portfolio to help cover future care needs. Most people do not spend years in a nursing home. As a result, we're not trying to fund the most expensive long-term-care scenario imaginable. Instead, we're setting aside enough money to cover the most likely care needs without significantly affecting our lifestyle. If we encounter a more extreme situation, we still have the remainder of our portfolio and the equity in our home available. That’s just basic financial planning: managing risk to a comfortable level instead of spending a fortune to eliminate it completely. We'll reevaluate our situation every few years and remain open to moving to a CCRC or assisted living community if health, mobility, or caregiving needs increase significantly. There may come a day when Rachel and I decide that a CCRC or assisted living community is the right choice. None of us can predict the future, and flexibility has value. But I now understand something I didn't fully appreciate when my mother was alive. A home is more than a place to live. It is a collection of routines, relationships, memories, and comforts that become increasingly important as we grow older. My mother knew that instinctively. She wasn't being stubborn. She was protecting a life she loved and a sense of independence that mattered deeply to her. When she told me she was close to everything she needed, she wasn't talking about stores, restaurants, or doctors. She was talking about belonging. It took me years to understand what she meant. If I had understood it sooner, our conversations about assisted living might have been very different.   Dennis Friedman retired from Boeing Satellite Systems after a 30-year career in manufacturing. Born in Ohio, Dennis is a California transplant with a bachelor’s degree in history and an MBA. A self-described “humble investor,” he likes reading historical novels and about personal finance. Follow Dennis on X @DMFrie and check out his earlier articles
Read more »

Financial Planning

"For those of us with most assets inside IRAs, I think this idea has merit."
- Dan Smith
Read more »

The Solitaire Solution

"For those of you who track storms during hurricane season, the day-by-day impact area expands due to the uncertainty factors folded into the Monte Carlo analysis used to track the most likely path."
- Jeff Bond
Read more »

How do you prepare for the long term care cost as retiree?

"Ten years ago I bought a One-America Hybrid LTC policy which embodies the concept of "self-funding". The policy is essentially a second-to-die life insurance policy. I put down a lump sum and pay an annual premium to ensure the benefits never expire. If not completely spent for LTC the remaining funds will be paid to survivors. The premiums are fixed. They are not inflation-adjusted. The benefits will be non-taxable. Having this policy on my balance sheet protects the rest of my investment portfolio. I wrote the policy myself and did for a handful of other friends. I am no longer working but the policy is in force and there have been no rate increases as the policy was not underpriced at the start."
- James Mcglynn
Read more »

The S Word

SOCIALISM. IT'S A WORD that can make people on the far left swoon, as they imagine an egalitarian utopia, even while inciting those on the far right to mumble protective oaths like a medieval citizen seeing a sign of the devil. It’s also a word that Google Trends reports has had a surge in search-related interest since last December. As competing visions of how to protect and enhance the American economic system vie for political popularity, the word is used to both support and condemn proposals. Problem is, it’s been stretched, pulled, interpreted and manhandled so much that two people debating the merits of socialism may not even be discussing the same thing. That’s not good if our goal is calm, cool deliberation, rather than emotional, knee-jerk confrontation. Let’s take a step back and revisit some basic economic concepts. Economics is the study of how we make choices. Economic systems are defined by who gets to make those choices. In their purest form, there are three such systems: Free market economy. Individuals, most notably buyers and sellers, make the decisions. They negotiate price and quality. Life is improved, famously, by the “invisible hand” of the competitive market. Its advantage is that it allows maximum freedom, sets an immediate, rational value to things, and inspires capital investment and innovation. The downside is that it’s predicated on a delicate balance of power between buyers and sellers, which—if thrown off—can subvert the system, as happens when someone has a monopoly. In addition, the system is prone to making more short-term, individual-benefitting decisions, rather than long-term choices that might help us collectively, such as reducing pollution or improving mass transportation. Command economy. In this model, decisions are made by those with political power. This is the category into which socialism falls. But the category also includes regulation by republican forms of government, monarchies and dictatorships. Big picture decisions can be made that have long-term advantages, such as constructing public schools to educate future citizens. If done well, it’s also possible to achieve economies of scale—as happens with public utilities. The downside: Governments are notorious for not doing things well, quickly or without waste. Traditional economy. This is the sleeper one—but, ironically, it has the most decision-makers, because the group consists of all our ancestors and their continuing influence. Why is beef off the menu for one religion and pork off the menu for others? Why are many stores closed on Sunday, or clam chowder red in some parts of the country and white in others, or some clothes just for one gender? These are the cumulative effects of cultural decision-making over time, and we often roll with them. The advantage of this system is that it gives people a framework to work within. It offers the comfort and identity that comes with being part of a group. The downside: Traditional decisions can be the hardest to change, even when they have become antiquated and counterproductive. Which system do we have? What’s the best system? The first question is simple to answer, because it is true for every system ever used: We are a mixed system, predominantly free market, but with elements of the others. Go to a grocery store. The owner decides what to sell and what price he wants to charge, though—aware of the importance of culture—he’ll take into account local area favorites. As customers, our choice is limited by the grocery store’s selection—but we always have the choice to go to another grocery store. We can be fairly confident the food sold is of a minimum health standard set by the government, and we may pay for our purchase with government assistance, because we are elderly, a veteran or poor. In other words, it’s mostly free market, but with aspects of both a command and traditional economy. We can debate what the best balance is between the three. But it’s counterproductive to engage in demonizing and name-calling, and we shouldn’t irrationally condemn any of the historic and vital aspects of what’s become the world’s greatest economy. People on the left have no doubt benefited from wealth earned by entrepreneurs. People on the right have had their lives enhanced, and possibly saved, by government safety standards. And we all love national holidays. Jim Wasserman is a former business litigation attorney who taught economics and humanities for 20 years. His previous articles were Applying PressureFive MistakesSpoonful of Advice and Under the Influence. Jim’s book series on teaching behavioral economics and media literacy,  Media, Marketing, and Me, is being published in 2019. Jim lives in Granada, Spain, with his wife and fellow HumbleDollar contributor, Jiab. Together, they write a blog on retirement, finance and living abroad at YourThirdLife.com. [xyz-ihs snippet="Donate"]
Read more »

Still Teaching

"Mark, an expanded conversation on the subject could be very helpful to people."
- Dan Smith
Read more »

Thinking about downsizing? Think seriously

"Let’s not get carried away. A paper and pencil will do fine."
- R Quinn
Read more »

Many seniors think we paid for our Social Security benefits based on the FICA taxes we paid. Let’s dispel that myth- we didn’t

"Well, inaction has consequences, does it not? If you don't save, you don't have money to spend. It's called self-reliance. Kind of an American thing."
- Bruce Keller
Read more »

Pricing the Future

THE WAY INVESTORS think about the stock market may be entirely wrong. Intuition tells us, and academic research confirms, that a company’s stock price should respond to important news and information. When a company announces a new product, for example, its stock should go up. And when results fall short of expectations, it should decline.  But a new paper titled “The Inefficient Pricing of News” calls this idea into question. The authors found that investors respond much more slowly and inconsistently to market news than previously thought. In some cases, it took a year or more for a stock price to respond.  Why would that be the case? Tony Fadell is often referred to as “the father of the iPod.” For years, he worked side-by-side with Steve Jobs, first developing the iPod, then the iPhone. In a recent interview, Fadell shared details of what the product development process looked like inside Apple, and how the reality on the inside often differed from the way it appeared on the outside. Fadell’s comments can help us understand why stock prices often miss the mark. The nature of competition. Investors, Fadell argued, often have a one-dimensional understanding of companies. As an example, he told the story of the development of the iPhone. When it was first released, many observers dismissed it as an overpriced toy. Unlike the BlackBerry, the dominant mobile device for corporate users at the time, the first iPhone lacked key security features and didn’t have a physical keyboard. As a result, it was perceived as a niche product with narrow appeal. Fadell explained, though, that Apple looked at the market differently. Yes, BlackBerry had a very high market share among business users, but it had only a small share of the overall mobile phone market—just 1% or 2%. Apple was interested in the rest of the market: “What about the other 98% of the people? What would they want?” That was the question Apple was asking internally. Observers on the outside, though, underestimated the iPhone’s potential because they assumed they understood Apple’s competitive objectives. The definition of success. Investors often make another mistake, Fadell said. They use the wrong yardstick in measuring successes and failures. He notes that early versions of both the iPod and the iPhone had significant shortcomings. The first iPod worked only with Apple computers. The first iPhone was underpowered and wasn’t open to outside app developers. The App Store didn’t debut until a year after the iPhone’s release. For all these reasons, early critics continued to underestimate the iPhone’s potential even as it gained market share. But inside Apple, the potential was clear. They knew that all of the core components would get better each year and that cell phone networks would get faster. Fadell, who also invented the Nest thermostat, made this observation: “Everything needs three generations. I’ve never seen anyone get it right the first time.” Wall Street, however, tends to not be that patient, and that can lead to a disconnect between perception and reality in stock prices. Fadell notes that even when a product fails, it can be valuable. Apple learned a lot from the Newton, its first attempt at a mobile device. Similarly, Amazon had a short-lived mobile phone called the Fire. From the outside it was deemed a costly mistake, but Jeff Bezos saw it differently. “You can’t, for one minute, feel bad,” he said. The voice recognition technology Amazon developed for the Fire ultimately turned into Alexa. The bottom line: Wall Street’s obsession with quarterly results can cause investors to use the wrong scorecard, and that’s another reason stock prices can move in the wrong direction. The timeline to profits. Fadell noted that the first iPhone was unprofitable but that this wasn’t a concern. Because sales were increasing, Apple would be able to lower production costs. Together with technology advances, management knew that the product would eventually yield profit. “You make the product, you fix the product, then you fix the business,” Fadell explained. Companies pursuing a new idea are often underestimated because they’re judged prematurely. Consider Amazon. It was unprofitable for almost 10 years after its founding. Why? During that decade, the company was growing quickly, but it reinvested as much as it could into warehouses. The result is that it can now deliver packages to many customers the same day. That may have been Jeff Bezos’s vision from early on, but outside observers couldn’t see the roadmap he had in his desk drawer, and for that reason, Amazon was regularly criticized for its lack of profits. The most notable misjudgment: In 1999, Barron’s magazine ran a cover story with the headline “Amazon.bomb.” How did Barron’s editors get it wrong? They had no idea where the company was headed, and for competitive reasons, Bezos certainly wasn’t going to tip his hand. This pattern repeats frequently, and it’s a key reason why stock prices often end up out of line with a company’s true long-term value. "All overnight success takes about 10 years,” Bezos later commented. Timeline to bankruptcy. Sometimes, Wall Street makes the opposite mistake, failing to see when a company is headed into decline. The most famous example in this category may be Kodak, which was the dominant maker of film for traditional cameras. Remarkably, it was a Kodak engineer who invented the first digital camera all the way back in the 1970s. But recognizing the threat it represented, the company shelved the project. Over the course of the 1980s and 1990s, other companies introduced digital cameras, with the result that, between 1990 and 1997, Kodak’s revenue dropped almost 25%. And yet, throughout that period, its stock kept rising, hitting an all-time high in 1997. Investors just couldn’t appreciate the reality of what was happening. But then, just five years later, Kodak filed for bankruptcy. In general, and on average, stock prices do reflect the value of public companies. But for all the reasons Fadell cites, that relationship is often imperfect. This is a fundamental reason why, in my view, investors are best served by choosing diversified index funds rather than trying to pick individual stocks.   Adam M. Grossman is the founder of Mayport, a fixed-fee wealth management firm. Sign up for Adam's Daily Ideas email, follow him on X @AdamMGrossman and check out his earlier articles.
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Manifesto

NO. 65: IF WE CAN easily afford to cover a financial loss out of pocket, we shouldn’t pay an insurance company to do so. An auto policy is a great idea—but one with low deductibles isn’t.

humans

NO. 20: MONEY worries can make us miserable—which is why not spending can be so smart. If spending leaves us with no savings, and perhaps bills we can’t afford to pay, the result can be great unhappiness. Research suggests that having some $5,000 in a savings account or similar “liquid” form can substantially boost our sense of financial well-being.

Truths

NO. 38: IN EFFICIENT markets, stock and bond prices reflect all known information. That makes it tough for smart investors to find bargains and earn market-beating returns. But that market efficiency also protects ignorant investors, who are less likely to overpay for stocks and bonds, and hence they should do okay—provided they diversify.

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MONTE CARLO analysis. Suppose you wrote down all annual historical stock market returns on index cards and randomly selected 30 cards—to get a hypothetical 30-year return—and did so 10,000 times. You’d have a sense of the range of possible 30-year returns and their likelihood. To see Monte Carlo analysis in action, try playing with Fi Calc's calculator.

Borrowing

Manifesto

NO. 65: IF WE CAN easily afford to cover a financial loss out of pocket, we shouldn’t pay an insurance company to do so. An auto policy is a great idea—but one with low deductibles isn’t.

Spotlight: Cars

Road to Nowhere

I’M DEBATING whether my life is better described by Tom Cochrane’s Life Is a Highway or Eddie Rabbitt’s Driving My Life Away. In a recent article, I noted that our family has driven our cars about 1.9 million miles. Since I’m the family’s King of the Road, I’ve been along for at least two-thirds of that ride.
I’m also, alas, the king of lost time.
The average commuting speed in the Washington,

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No Help

OUR LAST SUMMER road trip didn’t exactly go as planned. That ordeal changed my mind about an annual expense I’d been paying without much thought. I gained a new perspective—even if I did learn my lesson the hard way.
On a Saturday morning last summer, Sarah and I woke our kids at 4 a.m. for a predawn drive through the mountains of East Tennessee and across the Carolinas. We were on our way to enjoy the beaches of Hilton Head Island,

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They’ve Gone Soft

MY WIFE AND I BOUGHT a used hybrid Toyota RAV4 recently. We saw it at a dealership and bought it that day.
This wasn’t an impulse purchase. We knew it was time to replace my 10-year-old Subaru Forester, and we’d done research on hybrids and electric vehicles. Because the new car would be our distance traveling vehicle, and my occasional work transportation, we wanted the flexibility of a hybrid. In time, we’ll replace our second car with an electric vehicle for local driving.

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Conflicting and Confusing Economic Indicators

Although I feel I have at least an average level of intelligence, I truly cannot understand many financial issues, that I read and hear, from everyday people, politicians and more.
For example, gasoline prices seem to be a favorite topic, and I wonder why consumers are so concerned as they rise, while the prices of the vehicles have risen so much and why many those same people keep leasing and buying very expensive SUVs, Huge pick up trucks ,etc.

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Just Another Car

ONCE I GRADUATED college and started working fulltime, I knew what my first major purchase would be: a sporty new car. I was jealous of the cars my friends drove in high school. I had just spent four years grinding through an undergraduate engineering program. I was ready to reward myself.
To prepare for the purchase, I minimized my expenses. I shared an apartment with two friends who had also just graduated from college.

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My Big Brother

AUTO INSURANCE HAS been getting more and more expensive in recent years. There are many reasons: New cars cost more, extreme weather, folks seem to be suing more often, and so on.
Our daughter Brenda called me, asking if I could look over her auto policy to see if there was a way to lower her premiums. We have our car insurance with the same company. On the company’s website, I came across something called “Safe Pilot.” Many insurers have similar programs.

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Spotlight: Saha

My Two Cents

AN UNPLEASANT PRICE shock awaits those who grew up in a low-cost-of-living nation and then relocate to a high-cost country. Coming from India, I experienced it firsthand, as I routinely converted prices into Indian rupees and compared them to the cost of similar items back home. In my initial years abroad, this made it challenging to open my wallet. Everything appeared overpriced. It took time to come to terms with the fact that, despite higher living costs, I could still afford most necessities, thanks to my higher income. Continually calculating prices in Indian rupees became increasingly illogical and tiresome. Nevertheless, I couldn’t entirely abandon the habit. Instead, I adopted a simplified approach, one that factored in differences in purchasing power. My new calculation: I’d append a zero to the local price—effectively multiplying it by 10—and consider that figure as the “affordability-adjusted” price in Indian rupees. For instance, if the $20 price tag for a haircut had me pondering a ponytail instead, my thought process would be as follows: If I still lived in India, instead of relocating abroad, would I hesitate to spend 200 Indian rupees to appear well-groomed? Why did I choose to add a zero, instead of relying on the official currency conversion rate? The exchange rate sometimes made the cost in rupees seem exorbitant. But I instead focused on the average salary in both countries of a software engineer, which is my profession. For instance, if a software engineer in the U.S. earns a salary of $100,000, the same person in India might earn 10 times that amount in Indian rupees, or 1 million rupees. If the U.S.-based engineer considers the price of a haircut to be reasonable, then the engineer in India should likewise regard the “affordability adjusted” price—the rupee price with an extra zero added…
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Summer Relief

LIVING IN THE PACIFIC Northwest, my favorite time of year is summer. I love the extra daylight and relief from the nagging rain. In recent years, there’s been an additional reason to look forward to summer: I get to see my paycheck again. Some background: A few years ago, in an online investment forum, another participant—I’ll call him Dave—gave me a tip for early retirement. He suggested that I practice living off my investment portfolio even while working. Many early retirees, in Dave’s opinion, spend too little in the initial years because they struggle with depleting their savings. I decided to give it a try. As a first step, I maxed out my payroll 401(k) contribution. The leftover money in each paycheck went to the employee stock purchase plan and additional tax withholding. These various payroll deductions exhausted my entire part-time pay. That meant I had to cover all my expenses with my investment accounts. As Dave suspected, I’ve had a hard time spending from my brokerage account, especially if it involved selling investments. I figured that a monthly cash distribution would work better psychologically. This prompted me to look for more income-generating investments, such as closed-end bond, utility and real estate funds. Their monthly distributions cover my groceries and utilities. For most of my other funds, the first-quarter distributions arrive in April, just in time to take care of the property tax payments. I tend to defer big-ticket expenses until later months when I start seeing my paycheck again. Recently, extra cash showed up in my bank account on payday. It’s a sign that that my total 401(k) contribution—pretax, catchup and after-tax investments—reached the maximum annual limit. The paycheck drought is over for another year.
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A Narrow Escape

I ENVY THOSE WHO can remain patient and calm in almost any situation. Thanks to my neurotic personality, I find it hard to wait for an outcome over which I have little control. This year, I narrowly escaped that sort of agonizing experience. What happened? We found ourselves selling our home during 2022’s suddenly cooling real estate market. I was surprised last year when the red-hot property market pushed our modest home past the $1 million mark. With prices so high, we decided to sell our paid-off house and move to one that offered more space and privacy. The place we settled on as our next home was a 50-year-old house in dire need of repairs and a facelift. We wanted to remodel it before moving in—and before selling the house we currently lived in. The remodeling started last summer at a sluggish pace. It was great not to live in a house that’s being remodeled, but it also made it harder for us to monitor progress and deal with contractors. The work dragged on, thanks to supply issues, contractor delays and COVID. I pretended to stay patient. My anxiety started rising as whispers about a possible cooling of the housing market grew louder. After all, we had to sell the old house after we moved into the new one. If it didn’t sell within a reasonable time and at a reasonable price, it would mess up our financial plans. I neither fancied being a landlord nor wanted to leave a large chunk of our assets locked up in real estate. As mortgage rates ticked higher, we revised our plan. Instead of waiting for the remodeling to be wrapped up, we decided to move in by early spring. We called up a moving company and set a date in March. We…
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Seven Habits

BEING A BOOKWORM, I’ve read countless tomes on investing and personal finance. Many were helpful, but my favorite isn’t even about finance. Instead, my vote goes to Stephen Covey’s masterpiece, The Seven Habits of Highly Effective People. Surprised? What does a self-improvement book about character development have to do with finance? The connection between the two didn’t occur to me until I recently listened to a podcast on personal finance books. Several picks were about the psychology of money and sound financial habits. That’s when it dawned on me how much Covey’s book has helped me with my finances. It’s been years since I first read the book, but I still skim through it every now and then. As I practiced the lessons over the years, I got better at my work and personal commitments. Unknowingly, these seven habits also crept into my financial decisions. Habit No. 1: Be proactive. Financial success won’t happen automatically. We each need to take the initiative and take responsibility. Proactive people realize that procrastination and success seldom go together. They do whatever it takes to get on a wealth-building path. That begins with figuring out the steps toward financial independence. Proactive folks use all available resources to learn. They ask for help from mentors, family members, coworkers, friends and professionals, until they get a handle on financial matters. Instead of leaving things to chance, proactive people focus on things they can control. They don’t complain about unfair pay, because they’re busy finding ways to increase their income and reduce their spending. Result? Missing the employer’s match on a 401(k) or paying sales loads for underperforming mutual funds don’t exist in their playbook. Habit No. 2: Begin with the end in mind. How many of us have gone through a phase of mindless spending or…
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Simply Works

I THANK MURTHY, a friend at college, for teaching me guitar. Instead of theories, he taught me five easy chords. I could soon play a few songs and that fueled my motivation to learn more. The same strategy can help beginner investors. Novices often find the stock market intimidating and mysterious. Result? Inaction and opportunity cost. Solution? Simple steps. A former coworker comes to my mind. He was uninterested in stocks, including the company shares he received as part of his pay. He sold the shares immediately—often the smart thing to do—but he didn’t know what to do with the cash. For people like him, a simple solution is a fund like Vanguard Total World Stock ETF (symbol: VT). No need to research individual stocks. All my friend had to do was sell his company shares as he received them and then buy this fund. Over time, his interest in investing grew, and he’s no longer ignorant about the stock market. Another example: A friend’s daughter needed help with investing. She learned fast and decided to invest equal amounts in four commission-free index funds. She adopted a shortcut for rebalancing. Whenever she had money to invest, she’d buy the fund with the lowest balance. Was this the best strategy? Maybe not. But it works for her. My last example: A recent acquaintance had a large sum sitting in her bank account for years. She was too afraid to invest and too embarrassed to ask. After we chatted a few times, she realized that—while she was avoiding risk—she was also avoiding return. She decided to start investing in small installments, but invest less if stock prices were high. To keep things simple, she transfers just enough from her bank each month so her investment account reaches a fixed dollar target. If…
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Money Misconceptions

AS I'VE TRIED TO HELP folks understand financial issues, I’ve come across numerous money misconceptions. I wasn’t surprised—because, before I learned better, I too misunderstood some of these issues. Here are the top eight misconceptions I’ve encountered: Misconception No. 8: Consumer prices drop when inflation falls. Inflation measures the pace of price increases. Declining inflation simply means that prices aren’t rising as fast, but they’re still going up, albeit at a slower rate. Furthermore, the effect of inflation remains, with prices stuck at higher levels. Inflation is calculated based on price fluctuations for a variety of goods and services. While specific items might slip in price, a positive inflation number—even if it’s smaller than before—still signifies an overall upward trend in prices, rather than a reversal to lower costs. Misconception No. 7: Investing requires professional help. Investing can seem intimidating to beginners, leading many to conclude that professional guidance is the only way to go. But technological advances and a wealth of free educational resources, including HumbleDollar’s money guide, have transformed the landscape. Unlike years ago, today’s investors have access to user-friendly investment platforms and simple, evidence-based strategies like target-date funds and index funds, eliminating the need to rely on professional money managers and stock brokers. Indeed, arguably, investing has become as straightforward as everyday tasks like grocery shopping. Moreover, after learning the basics and gaining confidence, managing investments—especially low-cost diversified investment products—requires surprisingly little time and effort, and there’s no need for extensive knowledge of the financial markets or the economy. There’s nothing wrong with using an advisory service when the cost is reasonable and conflicts of interest are minimized. But doing so is no longer the only way to achieve your investment goals. Misconception No. 6: Buying a home is always financially better than renting. Homeownership carries numerous…
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