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What’s in your portfolio ?

"We are about 27% domestic, 23% foreign, 24% bonds, 26% cash. ¾ of the stock funds are Vanguard index ETFs, ¼ are a few managed funds that I like. The bonds are short and medium duration. ⅓ of the cash is a CD ladder (in case hard times befall us). The balance is cash sitting in SPAXX (in case things go on sale).  One of my managed funds is Fidelity Contra. The fact that its manager, Will Danoff is retiring, has my  guard up. If I sell it, I will probably use the  proceeds to buy the index funds.  I have been giving serious thought to an all in one fund like the Vanguard Lifestyle funds or similar. If I croak first, Chrissy will have no interest in re-balancing every year. "
- Dan Smith
Read more »

FIXING SOCIAL SECURITY IS NOT THAT HARD, HERE’S HOW

"This has to be fixed by Congress, right? is that still an active institution in our country?"
- Nick Politakis
Read more »

Beyond Bank Accounts

I OPENED MY FIRST bank account in the US at a local credit union (CU) close to my workplace. The CU had several convenient offers for employees of our company. With minimal effort, I opened checking and savings accounts, got free checkbooks and a credit card despite having no credit history in the US.

I was so pleased with the convenience that I handled all my banking needs through this CU for many years. That included direct deposit of my salary, payments and withdrawals, a car loan, and certificates of deposit (CDs) as my savings grew. I still maintain my checking account here and occasionally enjoy special favors as a longtime loyal customer.

Eventually, I realized that I earned very little interest from the bank deposits. I shopped around, found other banks with better rates, opened several accounts here and there, and moved my money around.

I felt good about being proactive and getting a better return on my cash reserve. But that feeling was short-lived as I started learning more about personal finance and investments. Tired of chasing yields in bank accounts, I eventually embraced US Treasurys (debt issued and backed by the US Government) as my alternative to savings accounts and CDs.

For those unfamiliar with US Treasurys, think of them as CDs with maturities ranging from four weeks to 30 years. They're widely used as a "safe investment" by individual, institutional and even sovereign investors around the world.

There are some key differences, though. Bank deposits are insured only up to $250,000. US Treasurys, on the other hand, are backed by the full faith and credit of the US Government. Therefore, there is virtually no default risk regardless of the investment amount.

Treasury interest rates, both short-term and long-term, are heavily influenced by monetary policy actions of the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Treasury interest rates directly affect many interest rates we encounter in everyday life: bank accounts, CDs, mortgage, car loans, personal and business loans, and so on.

Treasury interest rates are often higher than comparable bank products. Why? Because the intermediary financial institutions take their cut for operational costs and profits. Result? Suboptimal, or sometimes almost non-existent, interest on bank deposits.

But wait. What if I need my money back?

With bank deposits, I can walk in and withdraw cash from my account. If my money is locked in a CD, I may have to pay a penalty for early withdrawal, but I can still access it fairly quickly. What happens if I'm holding Treasurys? Do I need to wait until maturity?

That leads us to another important aspect of US Treasurys: their extremely high liquidity.

I can certainly buy newly issued Treasurys and wait until maturity, but I don't have to wait for these events. Investors around the world buy and sell Treasurys in the open market every day, making them one of the most liquid investments in existence.

Their liquidity, safety and meaningful return make Treasurys a compelling alternative for both short- and long-term cash reserves.

Sounds interesting? That's exactly how I felt after doing my own research. All I needed to figure out was the best way to invest in them.

Instead of buying Treasurys directly from the US Treasury, I use my brokerage accounts and buy and sell individual Treasurys or Treasury exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the open market, just like stocks or funds. (I used to participate in Treasury auctions through the brokerage account to buy new issues and set my holdings to auto-roll upon maturity, but I eventually stopped doing that to keep things simple.)

For annual expenses and short-term cash needs, I like short-term, highly liquid, Treasury ETFs with a practically negligible expense ratio.

For money expected in three to four years, I favor short- and intermediate-term Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) ETFs. TIPS have a lower interest rate compared to equivalent regular Treasurys, but their principal is adjusted with inflation, helping mitigate the risk of unexpected inflation.

For cash reserves further into the future, five years or more, my preference is a ladder of individual TIPS bonds, each maturing in a specific future year. Bond trading is slightly more involved than ETFs or stocks, so target-maturity TIPS ETFs can also be a reasonable alternative despite their slightly higher management fees.

Is there a catch compared to keeping money in conventional bank accounts?

I can't think of any, but there are two noticeable differences worth understanding.

First, unlike money sitting in bank accounts, Treasury investments fluctuate in value because they constantly change hands in open markets. For short-term Treasurys, the fluctuations are usually tiny. For intermediate- and long-term Treasurys, the swing can be more noticeable, especially when there's a major change in the interest rate expectation. Thankfully, these fluctuations are usually modest, and over time Treasurys often come out ahead compared to bank deposits.

The second difference deserves a bit more attention.

With a bank account, you can get hold of your money almost immediately. Treasury investments, however, may take a couple of business days to turn into spendable cash. You need to sell the ETF or bond during market hours. Once the transaction settles, usually the next business day, the proceeds can then be transferred out to the checking account for spending. In some cases, you may be able to carry on your spending activities directly from the brokerage account.

Over time, I shifted most of my liquid savings to Treasurys because of the improved result. Yet I still see many people leaving large cash balances in bank products or chasing yields from one bank to another.

I suspect the main reason is simple: lack of familiarity with US Treasurys.

  Sanjib Saha retired early from software engineering to dedicate more time to family and friends, pursue personal development and assist others as a money wellness mentor. Self-taught in investments, he passed the Series 65 licensing exam as a non-industry candidate. Sanjib is the president and cofounder of Dollar Mentor, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization offering free investment and financial education. Follow his nonprofit on LinkedIn, and check out Sanjib’s earlier articles.
Read more »

Just the facts about Social Security

"You should contact current Congress members that represent you. (Wait, that's an oxymoron?) You should also concentrate your efforts on those running for Congress this year, especially the Senate. Those folks will be here for six years and coincidently, at a time when the SS fund is due to recalculate SS payments downward. Last I heard 22-28% lower payments to new and existing recipients."
- Barbara Arendt
Read more »

Gold and Diamonds

"David, call me an idiot. I was so far from the reality of the whole getting married thing, It didn't cross my mind about a ring. Suzie updated my knowledge on the whole business 😉"
- Mark Crothers
Read more »

What Remains: Money and Me

"I just finished Money and Me last night. I’d read all of the pieces in it that were previously published in HumbleDollar, but his additional content to tie it all together was special to read. As I came to the end, I found myself both grateful for his wisdom (which I experienced as a reader) and his kindness (which I got firsthand as a HD author) and saddened again that he’s gone."
- DrLefty
Read more »

…..taxes and you

"As Dan said you just log on to your Social Security account and your and your employers payroll tax payments for our Social Security and Medicare are listed by each year you worked. Not income taxes though."
- R Quinn
Read more »

Celebrating the Win

"Hung, Sounds like the American dream is still alive. Good for you."
- DavidHLancaster
Read more »

Time to share our financial info with children?

"I can only speak for my own unique experience, but I totally disagree with those who want to keep their children in the dark. I was a singleton in a hard-working but very poor family in my first years. A formative experience was seeing an old truck repossessed, and the failure of a small family business. My parents never hid any of this reality from me, even at age 4 or 5. Life was tough, we would be frugal, but we would make it. Gradually my parents did climb out of their hole, and then each received modest inheritances, mostly in the form of stocks and some bonds. They had learned from their parents frugality, patience, faith, and hope. From the beginning, I was invited to review with them their investments, and understand their rationale for what actions they took, good or bad in retrospect. Because they made few expensive mistakes, and quickly understood that fees and costs matter, they got rich slowly. Meanwhile, I was absorbing their lessons. They gave me a few thousand to invest, which I did invest after considerable study. I learned more from my mistakes than my successes, but it was a cheap education. My parents gradually needed more and more care because of emphysema, COPD, and heart disease, and I arranged my life to be able to help, at the drop of a hat. I was the junior partner in the family firm, and I damn sure was going to do whatever was necessary. Ultimately, of course, they both died, and they left me a modest inheritance but far more valuable a philosophy of money and investing--Jonathan before Jonathan--and I have thrived ever since. Because they had shared and explained everything from the earliest days, I learned about thrift, the amazing and frightening power of compounding, and how to maintain a calmness of mind, whatever the market did in the short term. When my father died, I felt fully competent to deal with what he left me, and the results suggest I was right. I am forever grateful for the trust and confidence my parents put in me, from young childhood, and I believe I repaid that well over their lifetimes. My message: be frank with you children. In my family it was literally unthinkable that my mother or father would be in the dark about family finances, and naturally I gradually became the junior partner, so to speak, in the family firm."
- afwAZ
Read more »

The Market’s Unpredictability

EARLIER THIS SPRING, Emil Verner, an economist at MIT, made an observation: The stock market, he said, seemed to be exhibiting “excess tranquility.” Despite an ongoing war, inflation and other negative headlines, investors seemed surprisingly unfazed. The market was on track for its fourth year in a row of positive returns. Through May, it had gained 11%. But no sooner did Verner make this observation that the market did begin to wobble. Last Friday, the Nasdaq index dropped more than 4%, and several individual stocks sank more than 10%. How can we make sense of this—that, despite the headlines, the market was so resilient for so many months, but then reversed course so suddenly? Looking at this question can help us better understand the nature of the stock market and why its movements often seem so illogical. We can start by looking at the period prior to last Friday’s decline. Despite the ongoing war and resulting inflation, the market had risen steadily throughout April and May. Why? Three factors likely contributed. First, and probably most importantly: While the war with Iran caused gasoline prices to jump, the impact on the overall economy has been more muted than most people expected. Despite the negative impact on commodity prices and interest rates, corporate America has been doing well. Among companies that reported earnings in the first quarter of this year, 85% beat expectations. For reference, over the past 10 years, approximately 76% of companies typically beat estimates. So corporate earnings are growing, and they’re growing even faster than expected. Another factor that might have contributed to the market tranquility: More investors are participating in workplace retirement plans like 401(k)s. Because these plans make regular investments via payroll deductions, they serve as a sort of thumb on the scale, constantly buying, whether the market is up or it’s down. This has been a steady, multi-year trend. The third factor contributing to market tranquility: artificial intelligence. Yes, there are concerns about it, but so far, these seem mostly theoretical. Most notably, there’s been the worry that AI systems would replace jobs and cause widespread unemployment. Last year, Sam Altman, the chief executive of OpenAI, warned that “a lot of jobs will go away.” At least one company blamed AI in initiating a round of layoffs, reinforcing Altman’s warning. More recently, though, Altman has backtracked. In an interview in May, he acknowledged that he was “pretty wrong.” “I’m delighted to be wrong about this,” he said. “I thought there would have been more impact on entry-level white-collar jobs being eliminated by now than ​has actually happened.” The data seems in line with Altman’s updated view. A year or two ago, it was easier to dismiss the early versions of ChatGPT for their tendency to fabricate information, but sentiment has shifted. Instead of putting white-collar workers out of jobs, AI seems instead to be helping them be more productive. Lawyers use it to help with research, programmers use it to write code, marketers use it to create websites and finance people use it to build spreadsheets. The list goes on, and because of all that, I suspect, investors have a generally optimistic outlook on the economy. Many people view AI as being in the early innings, with far greater productivity gains in front of us. But then came last Friday, when the market began to sputter. Why the sudden shift? The proximate cause was a strong employment report released on Friday morning. The economy added 172,000 jobs in May, more than double what economists had expected. And the numbers for March and April were both revised upward. This was all good news. The problem for the stock market, though, is that investors tend to think a few steps ahead, and that can turn good news into bad news. The worry in this case is that a strong employment picture will result in inflationary pressures, because more workers will have more money to spend. Taken together with the already elevated inflation resulting from oil prices, the fear is that the Federal Reserve might be forced to raise interest rates this year, after dropping them several times last year. Reflecting this worry, interest rates rose last Friday to 16-month highs. And because stocks tend to fall when rates rise, stocks dropped. And thus, with just one press release, market sentiment soured. Benjamin Graham famously stated: “In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.” From day to day, in other words, stock prices tend to be driven by sentiment, stories and emotion. But over the longer term, logic generally prevails, and stock prices will more rationally reflect companies’ profit levels.  I agree with Graham’s description of the market. What I would add, though, is that the stock market is also like a pinball machine. It isn’t so much that investors are irrational. Instead, the reality is that there’s simply too much news out there for even the most reasonable person to process at any given time. So people respond to whatever happens to catch their attention or whatever they see as most important. That differs from individual to individual and can also change from day to day. The result is the seemingly erratic ups and downs that we’ve being seeing recently, and that we see so often. This is another reason why I think the best approach for investors is to never react too strongly to the day’s news and instead to take the long view. History has shown that this is when Graham’s weighing machine should ultimately carry the day. Adam M. Grossman is the founder of Mayport, a fixed-fee wealth management firm. Sign up for Adam's Daily Ideas email, follow him on X @AdamMGrossman and check out his earlier articles.
Read more »

Defining Enough

"Thanks Mark, another great article. Enough said, the key word."
- William Dorner
Read more »

What’s in your portfolio ?

"We are about 27% domestic, 23% foreign, 24% bonds, 26% cash. ¾ of the stock funds are Vanguard index ETFs, ¼ are a few managed funds that I like. The bonds are short and medium duration. ⅓ of the cash is a CD ladder (in case hard times befall us). The balance is cash sitting in SPAXX (in case things go on sale).  One of my managed funds is Fidelity Contra. The fact that its manager, Will Danoff is retiring, has my  guard up. If I sell it, I will probably use the  proceeds to buy the index funds.  I have been giving serious thought to an all in one fund like the Vanguard Lifestyle funds or similar. If I croak first, Chrissy will have no interest in re-balancing every year. "
- Dan Smith
Read more »

FIXING SOCIAL SECURITY IS NOT THAT HARD, HERE’S HOW

"This has to be fixed by Congress, right? is that still an active institution in our country?"
- Nick Politakis
Read more »

Beyond Bank Accounts

I OPENED MY FIRST bank account in the US at a local credit union (CU) close to my workplace. The CU had several convenient offers for employees of our company. With minimal effort, I opened checking and savings accounts, got free checkbooks and a credit card despite having no credit history in the US.

I was so pleased with the convenience that I handled all my banking needs through this CU for many years. That included direct deposit of my salary, payments and withdrawals, a car loan, and certificates of deposit (CDs) as my savings grew. I still maintain my checking account here and occasionally enjoy special favors as a longtime loyal customer.

Eventually, I realized that I earned very little interest from the bank deposits. I shopped around, found other banks with better rates, opened several accounts here and there, and moved my money around.

I felt good about being proactive and getting a better return on my cash reserve. But that feeling was short-lived as I started learning more about personal finance and investments. Tired of chasing yields in bank accounts, I eventually embraced US Treasurys (debt issued and backed by the US Government) as my alternative to savings accounts and CDs.

For those unfamiliar with US Treasurys, think of them as CDs with maturities ranging from four weeks to 30 years. They're widely used as a "safe investment" by individual, institutional and even sovereign investors around the world.

There are some key differences, though. Bank deposits are insured only up to $250,000. US Treasurys, on the other hand, are backed by the full faith and credit of the US Government. Therefore, there is virtually no default risk regardless of the investment amount.

Treasury interest rates, both short-term and long-term, are heavily influenced by monetary policy actions of the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Treasury interest rates directly affect many interest rates we encounter in everyday life: bank accounts, CDs, mortgage, car loans, personal and business loans, and so on.

Treasury interest rates are often higher than comparable bank products. Why? Because the intermediary financial institutions take their cut for operational costs and profits. Result? Suboptimal, or sometimes almost non-existent, interest on bank deposits.

But wait. What if I need my money back?

With bank deposits, I can walk in and withdraw cash from my account. If my money is locked in a CD, I may have to pay a penalty for early withdrawal, but I can still access it fairly quickly. What happens if I'm holding Treasurys? Do I need to wait until maturity?

That leads us to another important aspect of US Treasurys: their extremely high liquidity.

I can certainly buy newly issued Treasurys and wait until maturity, but I don't have to wait for these events. Investors around the world buy and sell Treasurys in the open market every day, making them one of the most liquid investments in existence.

Their liquidity, safety and meaningful return make Treasurys a compelling alternative for both short- and long-term cash reserves.

Sounds interesting? That's exactly how I felt after doing my own research. All I needed to figure out was the best way to invest in them.

Instead of buying Treasurys directly from the US Treasury, I use my brokerage accounts and buy and sell individual Treasurys or Treasury exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the open market, just like stocks or funds. (I used to participate in Treasury auctions through the brokerage account to buy new issues and set my holdings to auto-roll upon maturity, but I eventually stopped doing that to keep things simple.)

For annual expenses and short-term cash needs, I like short-term, highly liquid, Treasury ETFs with a practically negligible expense ratio.

For money expected in three to four years, I favor short- and intermediate-term Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) ETFs. TIPS have a lower interest rate compared to equivalent regular Treasurys, but their principal is adjusted with inflation, helping mitigate the risk of unexpected inflation.

For cash reserves further into the future, five years or more, my preference is a ladder of individual TIPS bonds, each maturing in a specific future year. Bond trading is slightly more involved than ETFs or stocks, so target-maturity TIPS ETFs can also be a reasonable alternative despite their slightly higher management fees.

Is there a catch compared to keeping money in conventional bank accounts?

I can't think of any, but there are two noticeable differences worth understanding.

First, unlike money sitting in bank accounts, Treasury investments fluctuate in value because they constantly change hands in open markets. For short-term Treasurys, the fluctuations are usually tiny. For intermediate- and long-term Treasurys, the swing can be more noticeable, especially when there's a major change in the interest rate expectation. Thankfully, these fluctuations are usually modest, and over time Treasurys often come out ahead compared to bank deposits.

The second difference deserves a bit more attention.

With a bank account, you can get hold of your money almost immediately. Treasury investments, however, may take a couple of business days to turn into spendable cash. You need to sell the ETF or bond during market hours. Once the transaction settles, usually the next business day, the proceeds can then be transferred out to the checking account for spending. In some cases, you may be able to carry on your spending activities directly from the brokerage account.

Over time, I shifted most of my liquid savings to Treasurys because of the improved result. Yet I still see many people leaving large cash balances in bank products or chasing yields from one bank to another.

I suspect the main reason is simple: lack of familiarity with US Treasurys.

  Sanjib Saha retired early from software engineering to dedicate more time to family and friends, pursue personal development and assist others as a money wellness mentor. Self-taught in investments, he passed the Series 65 licensing exam as a non-industry candidate. Sanjib is the president and cofounder of Dollar Mentor, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization offering free investment and financial education. Follow his nonprofit on LinkedIn, and check out Sanjib’s earlier articles.
Read more »

Just the facts about Social Security

"You should contact current Congress members that represent you. (Wait, that's an oxymoron?) You should also concentrate your efforts on those running for Congress this year, especially the Senate. Those folks will be here for six years and coincidently, at a time when the SS fund is due to recalculate SS payments downward. Last I heard 22-28% lower payments to new and existing recipients."
- Barbara Arendt
Read more »

Gold and Diamonds

"David, call me an idiot. I was so far from the reality of the whole getting married thing, It didn't cross my mind about a ring. Suzie updated my knowledge on the whole business 😉"
- Mark Crothers
Read more »

What Remains: Money and Me

"I just finished Money and Me last night. I’d read all of the pieces in it that were previously published in HumbleDollar, but his additional content to tie it all together was special to read. As I came to the end, I found myself both grateful for his wisdom (which I experienced as a reader) and his kindness (which I got firsthand as a HD author) and saddened again that he’s gone."
- DrLefty
Read more »

…..taxes and you

"As Dan said you just log on to your Social Security account and your and your employers payroll tax payments for our Social Security and Medicare are listed by each year you worked. Not income taxes though."
- R Quinn
Read more »

Celebrating the Win

"Hung, Sounds like the American dream is still alive. Good for you."
- DavidHLancaster
Read more »

The Market’s Unpredictability

EARLIER THIS SPRING, Emil Verner, an economist at MIT, made an observation: The stock market, he said, seemed to be exhibiting “excess tranquility.” Despite an ongoing war, inflation and other negative headlines, investors seemed surprisingly unfazed. The market was on track for its fourth year in a row of positive returns. Through May, it had gained 11%. But no sooner did Verner make this observation that the market did begin to wobble. Last Friday, the Nasdaq index dropped more than 4%, and several individual stocks sank more than 10%. How can we make sense of this—that, despite the headlines, the market was so resilient for so many months, but then reversed course so suddenly? Looking at this question can help us better understand the nature of the stock market and why its movements often seem so illogical. We can start by looking at the period prior to last Friday’s decline. Despite the ongoing war and resulting inflation, the market had risen steadily throughout April and May. Why? Three factors likely contributed. First, and probably most importantly: While the war with Iran caused gasoline prices to jump, the impact on the overall economy has been more muted than most people expected. Despite the negative impact on commodity prices and interest rates, corporate America has been doing well. Among companies that reported earnings in the first quarter of this year, 85% beat expectations. For reference, over the past 10 years, approximately 76% of companies typically beat estimates. So corporate earnings are growing, and they’re growing even faster than expected. Another factor that might have contributed to the market tranquility: More investors are participating in workplace retirement plans like 401(k)s. Because these plans make regular investments via payroll deductions, they serve as a sort of thumb on the scale, constantly buying, whether the market is up or it’s down. This has been a steady, multi-year trend. The third factor contributing to market tranquility: artificial intelligence. Yes, there are concerns about it, but so far, these seem mostly theoretical. Most notably, there’s been the worry that AI systems would replace jobs and cause widespread unemployment. Last year, Sam Altman, the chief executive of OpenAI, warned that “a lot of jobs will go away.” At least one company blamed AI in initiating a round of layoffs, reinforcing Altman’s warning. More recently, though, Altman has backtracked. In an interview in May, he acknowledged that he was “pretty wrong.” “I’m delighted to be wrong about this,” he said. “I thought there would have been more impact on entry-level white-collar jobs being eliminated by now than ​has actually happened.” The data seems in line with Altman’s updated view. A year or two ago, it was easier to dismiss the early versions of ChatGPT for their tendency to fabricate information, but sentiment has shifted. Instead of putting white-collar workers out of jobs, AI seems instead to be helping them be more productive. Lawyers use it to help with research, programmers use it to write code, marketers use it to create websites and finance people use it to build spreadsheets. The list goes on, and because of all that, I suspect, investors have a generally optimistic outlook on the economy. Many people view AI as being in the early innings, with far greater productivity gains in front of us. But then came last Friday, when the market began to sputter. Why the sudden shift? The proximate cause was a strong employment report released on Friday morning. The economy added 172,000 jobs in May, more than double what economists had expected. And the numbers for March and April were both revised upward. This was all good news. The problem for the stock market, though, is that investors tend to think a few steps ahead, and that can turn good news into bad news. The worry in this case is that a strong employment picture will result in inflationary pressures, because more workers will have more money to spend. Taken together with the already elevated inflation resulting from oil prices, the fear is that the Federal Reserve might be forced to raise interest rates this year, after dropping them several times last year. Reflecting this worry, interest rates rose last Friday to 16-month highs. And because stocks tend to fall when rates rise, stocks dropped. And thus, with just one press release, market sentiment soured. Benjamin Graham famously stated: “In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.” From day to day, in other words, stock prices tend to be driven by sentiment, stories and emotion. But over the longer term, logic generally prevails, and stock prices will more rationally reflect companies’ profit levels.  I agree with Graham’s description of the market. What I would add, though, is that the stock market is also like a pinball machine. It isn’t so much that investors are irrational. Instead, the reality is that there’s simply too much news out there for even the most reasonable person to process at any given time. So people respond to whatever happens to catch their attention or whatever they see as most important. That differs from individual to individual and can also change from day to day. The result is the seemingly erratic ups and downs that we’ve being seeing recently, and that we see so often. This is another reason why I think the best approach for investors is to never react too strongly to the day’s news and instead to take the long view. History has shown that this is when Graham’s weighing machine should ultimately carry the day. Adam M. Grossman is the founder of Mayport, a fixed-fee wealth management firm. Sign up for Adam's Daily Ideas email, follow him on X @AdamMGrossman and check out his earlier articles.
Read more »

Free Newsletter

Get Educated

Manifesto

NO. 62: IF WE’LL SPEND money in the next few years, cash is the only prudent choice—but we shouldn’t hold more than necessary. Why not? After taxes and inflation, we’re likely losing money.

Truths

NO. 142: MUCH OF OUR financial success can be explained by luck—the family we're born into, the value that today’s economy puts on our talents, whether our bosses take a shine to us, whether the financial markets treat us well. The upshot: No matter how much success we’ve enjoyed, we should resist growing overconfident or being dismissive of others.

humans

NO. 4: A GRADUAL rise in our living standard brings great pleasure, while a reversal pains us deeply. The implication: We should manage our finances so our lifestyle improves over time. Suppose we save money by staying in motels today. If that means we can afford ritzier hotels down the road, today’s sacrifice could boost our long-term happiness.

act

ESTIMATE YOUR retirement income needs. Take your annual salary. Subtract how much you save each year and pay in Social Security payroll taxes. Also subtract your annual debt payments, including your mortgage—assuming these debts will be paid off by retirement. Result: You’ll know roughly how much you will need each year for a comfortable retirement.

Saving diligently

Manifesto

NO. 62: IF WE’LL SPEND money in the next few years, cash is the only prudent choice—but we shouldn’t hold more than necessary. Why not? After taxes and inflation, we’re likely losing money.

Spotlight: Retirement

Quinn’s grand new way to plan for a secure retirement. It’s called the McDonalds strategy

Last year I earned $16.68 an hour – sort of. That’s more than the minimum wage in all but the District of Columbia and for California fast food workers who earn $20 and hour. Fast food workers are mostly part-time, I on the other hand are no time.
That hourly rate is my dividends and interest converted to a equivalent full-time employment. 🤑 I suspect capital gains would boost that a bit- or maybe not this year.

Read more »

What wisdom can you share?

My wife and I are 58 and 66, respectively. She’ll be retiring soon, but expects to launch herself in a new job for at least several years. I expect to continue working until just after turning 70. I’m in my dream job as the president of my local community bank. We are in our forever home enjoying single floor living. We’re both healthy and travel for a short and long vacation annually. Our four  kids are launched in their careers and doing well;

Read more »

Is it possible to achieve financial well being without a plan or even a spreadsheet?

Based on the feedback I have received on HD over the years mostly directed at my failure to budget or track expenses in detail using spreadsheets, my selection of some high expense investments and to not pay much attention at all to our investments, failure to use financial or retirement planning services, retaining life insurance in retirement, beginning Social Security at FRA while working, buying cars for cash, retiring at age 67(part of my income replacement strategy),

Read more »

Funded Ratio vs Monte Carlo – Different Routes to Get to the Same Destination (or not)?

I find the “liability matching” concept as outlined in Dr. Wad Pfau’s “Funded Ratio”  helpful based on our household-specific inputs I provide.  This analysis, while based on different inputs than those of Monte Carlo simulation, has given me another way to project whether we expect to have adequate financial resources for the remainder of mine and my spouse’s life.
I have used Mike Piper’s simplified funded ratio example spreadsheet to “run the numbers” using the following inputs for each year of our expected life spans:

1) Select a conservative,

Read more »

Do farmers get to retire?

In an article published today titled Retiring from Farming is Complex and Not Always Planned the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College discusses the additional challenges that farmers face in their retirement planning.
https://crr.bc.edu/retiring-from-farming-is-complex-and-not-always-planned/
My wife and I are just back from a road trip Christmas visit with two of our adult children and their families that included driving across Indiana twice. After again seeing the vast farm lands and work I wanted to express my gratitude and appreciation to our farmers who keep us fed and whose efforts helps make my comfortable retirement possible.

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Social Security vs. Private Investment Accounts – RCC runs some numbers.

A recent post by Dan Smith took a crack at evaluating at the often heard statement that we would all be better off if the FICA taxes we paid into the Social Security (SS) trust fund were instead invested in individual accounts. The idea is that by investing our payroll taxes in something like an S&P 500 fund, we would be better off at retirement. This strategy has the benefit of long-term compounding, since many of many us will work upwards of 50 years. 

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Spotlight: Wasserman

The Gift of Life

GLOBAL LIFE expectancy for almost every nation will rise during the next two decades, with Spain overtaking Japan as the country with the longest life expectancy. Meanwhile, on the list of 195 countries, the U.S. will fall 20 places, from 43rd to 64th. The average U.S. lifespan as of birth is still projected to increase slightly, from 78.7 years to 79.8, but at a slower rate than the rest of the world. That isn’t great news for the U.S.—but it isn’t necessarily bad news for you, for two reasons. First, the longer you live, the longer you can expect to live. As you plan for retirement, you should focus not on life expectancy as of birth, but on life expectancy as of, say, age 65. According to the Social Security Administration, a 65-year-old man in the U.S. can now expect to live until age 84, on average, while a 65-year-old woman is looking at age 87. Second, life expectancy statistics are based on averages with a great deal of variability—and, for you, they could prove to be misleading guide. For instance, income is a strong predictor of life expectancy, as is gender: Women live longer at every income level than men. The implication: Those on the upper end of the wealth spectrum should not use simple averages in planning for their own retirement. When we see news reports of people celebrating their 100th birthday, we often chalk it up to "good genes." But research shows genes play a smaller role than most people think in determining longevity. More crucial is lifestyle. If you eat better, smoke less and exercise more than your parents did, there’s a good chance you’ll live longer. According to the Stanford Center on Longevity, most individuals underestimate their personal longevity. A key reason: People base their planning on…
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Time Not Well Spent

MY RELATIONSHIP WITH money is complicated. I want to get the best value for our dollars, so I spend a lot of time comparison shopping. Other people hunt for bargains. I go on long safaris. My frugality and comparison shopping have served Jim and me well. In our double-income household, we managed to save 50% of our combined pay—basically living on one income and saving the rest. That, coupled with some lucky breaks, propelled us to early retirement. Going from saving for retirement to spending in retirement, however, brings with it a shift in mindset. You become less focused on getting the most from your dollars—and more focused on getting the most from your time. Yes, you still want to save money, but you need to balance that against the time and effort involved. That brings me to our retirement income plan. We have five years of living expenses in cash investments, so we can sleep at night without worrying about short-term stock market performance. But cash, of course, pays almost nothing these days, so I’m always looking for the best deal I can. Until recently, I conducted those searches from Spain, where we spent the first three years of our retirement until our recent move back to Dallas. To open new financial accounts in the U.S., we needed a U.S. address. To that end, like many expats, we rented a virtual mailbox. That gave us a physical address in the U.S., plus 24/7 access to our mail, all from the convenience of a laptop or smartphone. (This is different from a P.O. box from the postal service.) In the past few years, using our virtual mailbox address, I opened two new travel credit cards in the U.S. to earn mileage. That gave us enough promotional airline points to pay…
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Courting Success

I JUST ATTENDED THE Madrid Open, a major clay court tennis tournament. It’s one of nine Masters series tournaments, ranked just below Grand Slams like Wimbledon and the U.S. Open. It was amazing to witness the players’ speed and agility at such close range. Because it was early in the tournament, most of the matches I saw were part of the first and second round, with top 10 players pitted against contenders outside of the top 100. Despite that, two of the matches went to a full three sets and were narrowly won by the top 10 players. They were exciting from beginning to end. There were many moments when we spectators sat at the edge of our seats, gasping in amazement at the incredible touch, power and athleticism of both players. Although the higher ranked player won each match, I observed that there was little to no difference in athletic ability between top 10 players and those just outside the top 100. Watching the matches, however, gave me a perspective on what it takes, beyond raw talent, to be at the top of one’s game—not just in tennis, but also in personal finance and even life more generally. The case for consistency. While one or two mistakes may not appear to make much difference, every little thing adds up. Top players rarely give anything away. Brilliant moves are impressive. But if they’re too often followed by a thoughtless error, an entire game can be lost. The same is true in life. We’re often not disciplined enough. But if we do the right thing consistently, even if it’s something small, we increase our chances of success—whether it’s reaching our retirement goal, becoming healthier, losing weight or having a happy family life. Want to retire early? It’s more likely to be gained…
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Odds Against

THE TOP COUNTRIES for gender-equal pay are Iceland, Norway and Finland, according to the World Economic Forum. As it happens, those three countries also rank among the top four countries for Gross National Happiness. The U.S. didn’t crack the top 10 on either list. The gender wage gap is a major problem in the U.S.—and it affects all of us. Over half of American families are dual income. That means women not receiving their financial due impoverishes American families. That, in turn, puts pressure on men to earn more. Yet it seems many folks are reluctant to admit we even have a problem. Ellevest's 2018 Money Census found that, while 83% of women recognize that there’s a gender wage gap and fully acknowledge the financial and career inequalities women encounter on the job, only 61% of men agree. Things clearly need to change at a faster pace. We need more aggressive investigation of wage discrepancy. We need corporations to create genuine opportunities for women and minorities to advance. We need more transparency in wages. Americans are simply too reluctant to share salary information, even as they broadcast every other detail of their lives. When I was working in Thailand as a foreign exchange dealer, all employees’ salary and bonuses were publicly disclosed at all levels. But change, unfortunately, will take time. Until then, women need survival strategies, so they can succeed in the corporate world. For me, I was forced to find ways to advance, inch by inch, during my career, and keep a positive attitude and not lose faith along the way. Most of all, I focused on what was best for my family and what we needed, rather than what we didn’t have. Quitting and having no pay—while it might have briefly felt good—paid no bills and would have…
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Brotherly Betrayal

I WROTE PREVIOUSLY about my parents being victims of financial abuse by one of my brothers. Recently, I returned to Bangkok, which gave me a chance to discuss this situation at length with the entire family, including my other brothers and my uncle. When the financial abuse of an elderly person is committed by a stranger, the rest of the family often has no chance to see warning signs. But 90% of abusers are family members or trusted individuals. In these cases, there are often warning signs, but the family may subconsciously not want to acknowledge the problem. In my brother’s case, my uncle said he’d noticed his free-spending lifestyle. He’d purchased new luxury cars for himself and his wife shortly after gaining control of half my elderly parents’ money through a guardianship. In many ways, however, this financial abuse was part of a pattern that could be seen going back to his youth. He was the only child, out of four, who’d continued to get substantial support from my parents throughout his life. While the rest of us have been supporting ourselves since we graduated from university, he continued to depend on our parents to make ends meet. It got to the point where he considered their financial assistance to be a normal part of his personal finances. It’s common for Thai families to have multiple generations living together. What’s uncommon is a son who doesn’t give part of his salary to his parents, or at minimum pay his own expenses, while living with them. My brother not only didn’t pay expenses while living with our parents well into his 40s, but also he lived there with his wife and two children. He relied on my parents to pay most of his family’s living expenses: cars, gas, food, mobile…
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Reversing Course

THREE YEARS AGO, Jim and I decided to retire to Spain. We were attracted by the promise of excellent health care, warm weather, low cost of living and travel throughout Europe. From there, we’d also be able to fly with relative easy to both the U.S. and Asia, allowing us to maintain family connections. All of this gave us a great quality of life for almost three years. Then COVID-19 hit. Like everyone else, we had to say goodbye to many activities, events and travel. More important, we were cut off from family and friends. During the lockdown, we had more time to explore new things. But we also had time to reflect on the things we’d lost that had always been there, invisibly supporting us. We came to realize three aspects of life were essential. First, it’s important for us to feel connected to loved ones and to reach them quickly in case of emergency, even if we were separated by thousands of miles. With the pandemic raging, Jim and I realized that if both of us became seriously ill in Spain or if one of our sons had an emergency back in the U.S., it was impossible for them to get to Spain and almost impossible for us to arrange a quick trip back. The unavailability of quick travel “in the event” was disturbing. Second, living in a community with friends is crucial to our emotional well-being. It’s no surprise that the disruption strained mental health for everyone, causing increased stress and anxiety. Loneliness became more widespread. I’m fortunate to have a good companion like Jim. A few of the expats we knew felt such loneliness that they were willing to risk infection to meet others. Third, as an expat, it isn’t easy to form deep friendships—those relationships…
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