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If you smoke two packs a day and fully fund your 401(k), you probably aren’t being entirely rational.

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Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) are a Generational Bargain Right Now

"Hi Emily, A 10-year TIPs ladder may be a better bet than the annuity, but keep in mind that: 1) if you keep the TIPS to maturity, you get the inflation adjusted return, however, the TIPs pay interest (which is less than regular Treasuries) twice annually and you can't spend the increase in the value of the TIPs until they mature or you sell them. If you need regular cash flow, TIPs may not work for you. 2) You pay income taxes in the current year for the increase in value of the TIPs even though you don't get that cash until they mature or you sell them. 3) TIPs work best taxwise if they are held in an IRA. 4) I don't think you can buy an inflation adjusted annuity these days. Let us know if you find one. Also, good luck in your retirement!"
- Howard Schwartz
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Go While You Still Can

"Great perspective. " .... are all healthy enough to experience life together is smaller than you think... and it's getting smaller." Most valuable things in life take a long time to achieve and we have precious little time to experience them. Live the moment!"
- V Saraf
Read more »

What I Retired To

"I am the same way, I too have this thing about seeing net worth decline no matter how illogical it is. These past few weeks have not helped has investments have tumbled and taken me from my happy place. My son in law is a managing direct at a Wall Street firm and warned me about this summer, but it doesn’t make me feel any better."
- R Quinn
Read more »

Taking a Loss?

"Seems to me you don't buy a bond fund for price appreciation, you buy it for the dividends. So there's no need to wait for it to recover unless your crystal ball tells you interest rates are going down. Things aren't as bad as they seem; if its price has gone down, its yield has gone up, helping your total return. I've gotten rid of most of those pesky bonds in our taxable account, but if I still had a fund, I'd sell it for the tax loss and buy the TIPS in my traditional IRA. (Just bought the new 10-year TIPS for 2.4+% real yield to extend my ladder.)"
- Randy Dobkin
Read more »

2025 and Medicare Rx

"Applies to all drugs that are on your plans formulary."
- R Quinn
Read more »

Today in Financial History

"Notice that I said I may hire an advisor someday if or when needed? This assumes that I will recognize that time is approaching and have time to interview and hire someone. Life often does not work that way. And you answered my unasked question, that is "why pay someone now to do what I may need someday, but just not yet?" By working with your advisor now, you can reasonably expect that your advisor will continue to follow your preferred strategy in the future, with or without your oversight. Smart move."
- Jack Hannam
Read more »

Widow Tax

THE WIDOW TAX is sold to the wrong households. It gets pitched to affluent couples as the reason to convert to a Roth or buy life insurance. The pitch says that when one spouse dies, the survivor files single, lands in a higher bracket, and gets clobbered. I ran the numbers for three couples at three incomes, and at the comfortable end the widow tax often costs nothing, or even less than nothing. The real cost lands lower down, on households nobody is selling anything to. What follows uses 2026 federal figures to show what the widow tax actually does in dollars, not in scary percentage points. The pattern runs opposite to the marketing. The higher your income, the smaller the hit, and the lower you go, the more it bites. Three Things Move When the first spouse dies, three things change, and they get bundled under one frightening label. One Social Security check stops, and a pension may shrink or end. That is lost income, and it is usually the largest of the three. It is not a tax. Spending shifts as well. The survivor pays one Medicare premium instead of two, but the mortgage still comes out of the same account. The third change is the only one the tax code causes: narrower single brackets, a smaller standard deduction and lower thresholds for the Medicare surcharge. The widow tax is that third piece alone, and the three households below measure how big it really is. The Affluent Couple Both spouses are over 65. Their income is about $360,000: $80,000 from Social Security, $210,000 from a pension and required minimum distributions, plus $30,000 in qualified dividends and $40,000 in long-term gains. They sit in the 24% bracket, and both already pay the Medicare surcharge. One spouse dies. The survivor keeps the larger Social Security check and most of the other income, landing at roughly $308,000. As a couple, they paid about $53,900 in federal income tax and a Medicare surcharge of about $9,240. As a single filer, the survivor pays about $55,000 in federal tax and a surcharge of about $6,355. The effective rate rises from 15.7% to 18.7%, which is the headline people remember. But the federal tax barely moves, up only about $1,100, because the survivor has less income to tax. The Medicare surcharge actually falls about $2,900, because two enrollees in the couple's joint tier cost more than one survivor a tier above. Net it all out, and the survivor pays about $1,800 a year less than the couple did. The rate went up, and the dollars went down. At the high end, the widow tax measured in money hands back a small refund. This is why the Roth conversion pitch aimed at comfortable couples misfires. If converting to Roth would cut the survivor's future taxable income without cutting the couple's lifestyle, the converted money was surplus. Surplus is money the survivor never needed to replace. Edward McQuarrie, a finance professor emeritus at Santa Clara University, made a version of this argument in a 2023 paper. He found the dollar hit inconsequential for affluent couples, and located any real cost lower down, where the Social Security torpedo bites. Where It Actually Bites Drop down to a couple with $180,000 of income: $60,000 from Social Security and $120,000 from a pension and required minimum distributions, all ordinary income. Both are over 65. The couple files jointly at $180,000; the survivor files single at about $150,000. As a couple, they paid about $17,148 in federal tax and no Medicare surcharge. The survivor pays about $22,737 in federal tax and a new surcharge of about $2,885. The federal tax rises about $5,600, and a surprising chunk of that comes from the collapse of the new $6,000 senior deduction, which phases out against a lower income threshold for singles. Then the survivor crosses into a Medicare surcharge tier the couple never paid. The total cost of widowhood here is roughly $8,500 a year, set against a $30,000 income loss. This is the one band where both the dollars and the rate move the wrong way. Now take a couple with $90,000 of income: $38,500 from Social Security, about the national average for two retired spouses, plus $51,500 from a pension and distributions. The survivor keeps the larger Social Security check and the full pension, landing at $73,500. As a couple, they paid about $3,433 in federal tax, at an effective rate of 3.8%. The survivor pays about $5,278, at an effective rate of 7.2%. There's no Medicare surcharge at this income, and there never will be. But the survivor's effective rate nearly doubles, because more of the Social Security benefit becomes taxable, up to the 85% ceiling, when the single thresholds replace the joint ones. The added tax is about $1,845, and the lost income is $16,500. Real money for a household least able to absorb it. It doubles the effective rate, and it hurts.  Read the three together and the widow tax points the wrong way from the marketing. At $360,000 it costs less than nothing, roughly a $1,800 annual saving. At $180,000 it costs about $8,500. At $90,000 it costs about $1,850, but the effective rate doubles. The affluent couples being sold protection don't need it. The middle couples who feel the sting are not being sold anything, and they're the ones for whom a few thousand dollars a year actually constrains a life. The tax code has three different mechanisms, and which one finds you depends almost entirely on your income. At the top, the Medicare surcharge does the work, and it falls. In the middle, the surcharge appears from zero. At the bottom, the Social Security torpedo raises the taxability of the benefit from 75% to 85%. The mechanism changes with the income, and so does the household's ability to absorb the hit. Plan Ahead This is where the widow tax conversation usually stops, and where I think it should start. The moves most likely to leave a survivor better off are the ones you make years before, and they help whether or not the widow tax ever bites. Converting traditional IRA money to Roth over several years before retirement smooths your taxable income. It lowers the required minimum distributions that will later push a single filer into higher brackets. It can also keep a survivor under a Medicare surcharge tier the couple never worried about. Drawing accounts in a sensible order, spending down the right buckets first, reduces the future tax base that a single bracket structure will tax more steeply. Managing required distributions as they grow, rather than letting them balloon off a rising balance, limits the single bracket exposure that builds across a long widowhood. A more tax-efficient bequest helps the people who inherit what is left. None of that is widow rescue. It is good multi-year planning that happens to compound in the survivor's favor. The widow tax is one input to that planning, not the reason for it. The reason is that the year your spouse dies is the worst possible year to be making financial decisions, and the more of those decisions you have already made, the fewer you hand to someone who is grieving. You can do a rough version of this at your own kitchen table, and you should, ideally long before you need to. Estimate the survivor's income after the smaller Social Security check and any pension change, then estimate the survivor's spending from your actual budget, not a generic rule of thumb. Subtract. If reliable after-tax income still supports the life the survivor wants, with margin, the tax rate was never the thing to worry about. Then project the survivor's federal tax, the net investment income tax where it applies and the Medicare surcharge as a single filer, and compare it to the couple. Keep the tax separate from the lost income, so you can see what the tax code actually did. Sometimes, as the affluent couple shows, it does you a small favor. Only then does a planning move earn a look, and only if you can answer what it costs today, what it might save later, who benefits and what has to come true for it to work. The widow tax is real, but it isn't the catastrophe it's sold as. At higher incomes it's not a cost at all. Lower down it is a real cost, and the lower you go, the more it's worth measuring, because the households it constrains have the least margin to spare. The planning that matters most is the kind you do years ahead, smoothing income, holding down future distributions, managing the surcharge tiers and putting the estate in order. Do that, and you've done right by your survivor, for reasons that have little to do with fear and a great deal to do with care. You'll have done it in the years when you still had the time, and the clarity, to do it well. ________________________________________________________________________________ John Urban is the founder of RetireSmartIRA, a retirement tax-planning app. Earlier, he founded GT Nexus, a supply-chain software company acquired by Infor in 2015. He lives in Northern California with his wife, Kathy, and enjoys time with family, travel, reading, Bay Area sports, and the occasional deep dive into the fine print of the tax code.
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Credit Card Debt.

"I pay off credit debt monthly, but I don’t limit myself to one card because part of your credit score is based on the percentage of credit utilization. Your utilization rate will be lower (and credit score higher) if you have multiple credit card accounts."
- corrupt
Read more »

Can we be completely safe?

"My BIL was a victim of ID theft… They took control of his phone, and resetting all his password's was impossible since he no longer had a phone to use as the second factor. It took months to straighten out."
- corrupt
Read more »

Degrees of Doubt: When Higher Education Misses the Mark

"The widely cast net is catching students that require remedial classes in math, English and reading. Is it any surprise that today’s students are unable to think critically?"
- corrupt
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Inflation, prices, COLAs, retirement and the last 16 years

"Not early, but when I claimed I was still working and collecting a pension. Otherwise it would be unlikely we could have saved it all, but that stopped several years ago. My point was if a person can delay until age 70 presumably they don’t need SS until then so collect sooner and invest it until you do need it. Of course the tradeoff is a lower SS benefit for life vs accumulated assets that may or may not provide income to offset the lower SS benefit. The gamble also depends on how long the person lives past age 70. On the other hand, the invested funds are always available to someone. I’m not selling the idea, just something I am happy with the result."
- R Quinn
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FIFA Financials

"Speaking as someone from a less affluent country (which virtually everywhere is relative to the US). I could personally have afforded to fly to the US and even attend matches. But the extraordinary price gouging by FIFA, local hotels, even public transport was something I would have deemed to make it exceptionally poor value . Would I have got $10,000 of value from attending a couple of matches? Highly unlikely. In any event I have a "home" Euros in 2 years which will likely be much more affordable if I really want to see top level international football."
- bbbobbins
Read more »

Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) are a Generational Bargain Right Now

"Hi Emily, A 10-year TIPs ladder may be a better bet than the annuity, but keep in mind that: 1) if you keep the TIPS to maturity, you get the inflation adjusted return, however, the TIPs pay interest (which is less than regular Treasuries) twice annually and you can't spend the increase in the value of the TIPs until they mature or you sell them. If you need regular cash flow, TIPs may not work for you. 2) You pay income taxes in the current year for the increase in value of the TIPs even though you don't get that cash until they mature or you sell them. 3) TIPs work best taxwise if they are held in an IRA. 4) I don't think you can buy an inflation adjusted annuity these days. Let us know if you find one. Also, good luck in your retirement!"
- Howard Schwartz
Read more »

Go While You Still Can

"Great perspective. " .... are all healthy enough to experience life together is smaller than you think... and it's getting smaller." Most valuable things in life take a long time to achieve and we have precious little time to experience them. Live the moment!"
- V Saraf
Read more »

What I Retired To

"I am the same way, I too have this thing about seeing net worth decline no matter how illogical it is. These past few weeks have not helped has investments have tumbled and taken me from my happy place. My son in law is a managing direct at a Wall Street firm and warned me about this summer, but it doesn’t make me feel any better."
- R Quinn
Read more »

Taking a Loss?

"Seems to me you don't buy a bond fund for price appreciation, you buy it for the dividends. So there's no need to wait for it to recover unless your crystal ball tells you interest rates are going down. Things aren't as bad as they seem; if its price has gone down, its yield has gone up, helping your total return. I've gotten rid of most of those pesky bonds in our taxable account, but if I still had a fund, I'd sell it for the tax loss and buy the TIPS in my traditional IRA. (Just bought the new 10-year TIPS for 2.4+% real yield to extend my ladder.)"
- Randy Dobkin
Read more »

2025 and Medicare Rx

"Applies to all drugs that are on your plans formulary."
- R Quinn
Read more »

Today in Financial History

"Notice that I said I may hire an advisor someday if or when needed? This assumes that I will recognize that time is approaching and have time to interview and hire someone. Life often does not work that way. And you answered my unasked question, that is "why pay someone now to do what I may need someday, but just not yet?" By working with your advisor now, you can reasonably expect that your advisor will continue to follow your preferred strategy in the future, with or without your oversight. Smart move."
- Jack Hannam
Read more »

Widow Tax

THE WIDOW TAX is sold to the wrong households. It gets pitched to affluent couples as the reason to convert to a Roth or buy life insurance. The pitch says that when one spouse dies, the survivor files single, lands in a higher bracket, and gets clobbered. I ran the numbers for three couples at three incomes, and at the comfortable end the widow tax often costs nothing, or even less than nothing. The real cost lands lower down, on households nobody is selling anything to. What follows uses 2026 federal figures to show what the widow tax actually does in dollars, not in scary percentage points. The pattern runs opposite to the marketing. The higher your income, the smaller the hit, and the lower you go, the more it bites. Three Things Move When the first spouse dies, three things change, and they get bundled under one frightening label. One Social Security check stops, and a pension may shrink or end. That is lost income, and it is usually the largest of the three. It is not a tax. Spending shifts as well. The survivor pays one Medicare premium instead of two, but the mortgage still comes out of the same account. The third change is the only one the tax code causes: narrower single brackets, a smaller standard deduction and lower thresholds for the Medicare surcharge. The widow tax is that third piece alone, and the three households below measure how big it really is. The Affluent Couple Both spouses are over 65. Their income is about $360,000: $80,000 from Social Security, $210,000 from a pension and required minimum distributions, plus $30,000 in qualified dividends and $40,000 in long-term gains. They sit in the 24% bracket, and both already pay the Medicare surcharge. One spouse dies. The survivor keeps the larger Social Security check and most of the other income, landing at roughly $308,000. As a couple, they paid about $53,900 in federal income tax and a Medicare surcharge of about $9,240. As a single filer, the survivor pays about $55,000 in federal tax and a surcharge of about $6,355. The effective rate rises from 15.7% to 18.7%, which is the headline people remember. But the federal tax barely moves, up only about $1,100, because the survivor has less income to tax. The Medicare surcharge actually falls about $2,900, because two enrollees in the couple's joint tier cost more than one survivor a tier above. Net it all out, and the survivor pays about $1,800 a year less than the couple did. The rate went up, and the dollars went down. At the high end, the widow tax measured in money hands back a small refund. This is why the Roth conversion pitch aimed at comfortable couples misfires. If converting to Roth would cut the survivor's future taxable income without cutting the couple's lifestyle, the converted money was surplus. Surplus is money the survivor never needed to replace. Edward McQuarrie, a finance professor emeritus at Santa Clara University, made a version of this argument in a 2023 paper. He found the dollar hit inconsequential for affluent couples, and located any real cost lower down, where the Social Security torpedo bites. Where It Actually Bites Drop down to a couple with $180,000 of income: $60,000 from Social Security and $120,000 from a pension and required minimum distributions, all ordinary income. Both are over 65. The couple files jointly at $180,000; the survivor files single at about $150,000. As a couple, they paid about $17,148 in federal tax and no Medicare surcharge. The survivor pays about $22,737 in federal tax and a new surcharge of about $2,885. The federal tax rises about $5,600, and a surprising chunk of that comes from the collapse of the new $6,000 senior deduction, which phases out against a lower income threshold for singles. Then the survivor crosses into a Medicare surcharge tier the couple never paid. The total cost of widowhood here is roughly $8,500 a year, set against a $30,000 income loss. This is the one band where both the dollars and the rate move the wrong way. Now take a couple with $90,000 of income: $38,500 from Social Security, about the national average for two retired spouses, plus $51,500 from a pension and distributions. The survivor keeps the larger Social Security check and the full pension, landing at $73,500. As a couple, they paid about $3,433 in federal tax, at an effective rate of 3.8%. The survivor pays about $5,278, at an effective rate of 7.2%. There's no Medicare surcharge at this income, and there never will be. But the survivor's effective rate nearly doubles, because more of the Social Security benefit becomes taxable, up to the 85% ceiling, when the single thresholds replace the joint ones. The added tax is about $1,845, and the lost income is $16,500. Real money for a household least able to absorb it. It doubles the effective rate, and it hurts.  Read the three together and the widow tax points the wrong way from the marketing. At $360,000 it costs less than nothing, roughly a $1,800 annual saving. At $180,000 it costs about $8,500. At $90,000 it costs about $1,850, but the effective rate doubles. The affluent couples being sold protection don't need it. The middle couples who feel the sting are not being sold anything, and they're the ones for whom a few thousand dollars a year actually constrains a life. The tax code has three different mechanisms, and which one finds you depends almost entirely on your income. At the top, the Medicare surcharge does the work, and it falls. In the middle, the surcharge appears from zero. At the bottom, the Social Security torpedo raises the taxability of the benefit from 75% to 85%. The mechanism changes with the income, and so does the household's ability to absorb the hit. Plan Ahead This is where the widow tax conversation usually stops, and where I think it should start. The moves most likely to leave a survivor better off are the ones you make years before, and they help whether or not the widow tax ever bites. Converting traditional IRA money to Roth over several years before retirement smooths your taxable income. It lowers the required minimum distributions that will later push a single filer into higher brackets. It can also keep a survivor under a Medicare surcharge tier the couple never worried about. Drawing accounts in a sensible order, spending down the right buckets first, reduces the future tax base that a single bracket structure will tax more steeply. Managing required distributions as they grow, rather than letting them balloon off a rising balance, limits the single bracket exposure that builds across a long widowhood. A more tax-efficient bequest helps the people who inherit what is left. None of that is widow rescue. It is good multi-year planning that happens to compound in the survivor's favor. The widow tax is one input to that planning, not the reason for it. The reason is that the year your spouse dies is the worst possible year to be making financial decisions, and the more of those decisions you have already made, the fewer you hand to someone who is grieving. You can do a rough version of this at your own kitchen table, and you should, ideally long before you need to. Estimate the survivor's income after the smaller Social Security check and any pension change, then estimate the survivor's spending from your actual budget, not a generic rule of thumb. Subtract. If reliable after-tax income still supports the life the survivor wants, with margin, the tax rate was never the thing to worry about. Then project the survivor's federal tax, the net investment income tax where it applies and the Medicare surcharge as a single filer, and compare it to the couple. Keep the tax separate from the lost income, so you can see what the tax code actually did. Sometimes, as the affluent couple shows, it does you a small favor. Only then does a planning move earn a look, and only if you can answer what it costs today, what it might save later, who benefits and what has to come true for it to work. The widow tax is real, but it isn't the catastrophe it's sold as. At higher incomes it's not a cost at all. Lower down it is a real cost, and the lower you go, the more it's worth measuring, because the households it constrains have the least margin to spare. The planning that matters most is the kind you do years ahead, smoothing income, holding down future distributions, managing the surcharge tiers and putting the estate in order. Do that, and you've done right by your survivor, for reasons that have little to do with fear and a great deal to do with care. You'll have done it in the years when you still had the time, and the clarity, to do it well. ________________________________________________________________________________ John Urban is the founder of RetireSmartIRA, a retirement tax-planning app. Earlier, he founded GT Nexus, a supply-chain software company acquired by Infor in 2015. He lives in Northern California with his wife, Kathy, and enjoys time with family, travel, reading, Bay Area sports, and the occasional deep dive into the fine print of the tax code.
Read more »

Credit Card Debt.

"I pay off credit debt monthly, but I don’t limit myself to one card because part of your credit score is based on the percentage of credit utilization. Your utilization rate will be lower (and credit score higher) if you have multiple credit card accounts."
- corrupt
Read more »

Can we be completely safe?

"My BIL was a victim of ID theft… They took control of his phone, and resetting all his password's was impossible since he no longer had a phone to use as the second factor. It took months to straighten out."
- corrupt
Read more »

Free Newsletter

Get Educated

Manifesto

NO. 13: FACED with an unknown future, we should diversify our investments, buy insurance, keep some cash—and accept that, in retrospect, these precautions will often seem unnecessary.

think

ASSET ALLOCATION. This is a portfolio’s split among the four asset classes: stocks, bonds, cash like savings accounts and money market funds, and alternatives such as gold and real estate. It’s arguably the most important decision an investor makes. The more a portfolio has in stocks, the higher its expected return, but the greater the volatility.

act

CALCULATE YOUR monthly nonmortgage debt payments as a percentage of your pretax monthly income. We’re talking here about car payments, student loans and minimum credit card payments. Aim to keep these payments to less than 10% of monthly income, though that can be a tough target to hit if you’re a new college graduate with student loans.

Truths

NO. 44: GOOD companies can be bad stocks. Why? Investors bid up the share prices of widely admired, fast-growing companies—but the stocks often falter when the companies fall short of investors' lofty expectations. Meanwhile, investors shun troubled, slower-growing companies, so even so-so corporate performance can result in strong market returns.

Estate planning

Manifesto

NO. 13: FACED with an unknown future, we should diversify our investments, buy insurance, keep some cash—and accept that, in retrospect, these precautions will often seem unnecessary.

Spotlight: Investing

Managing Investment Risk

BEFORE ITS FAILURE in 2008, Lehman Brothers had been one of the most prominent investment firms in the United States. After 158 years in business, what caused it to collapse so suddenly? In a word: complexity.
Lehman had been involved in the securitization of mortgages, a process that resulted in taking something relatively simple—a home mortgage—and turning it into something much more complicated, thus obscuring its true risk level. That was the proximate cause for the firm’s failure.

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Inventing Problems

“INVESTING IS SIMPLE,” observed HumbleDollar’s editor Jonathan Clements. “To be sure, you can make it ludicrously complicated.” And, indeed, Wall Street does just that.
According to a recent analysis by Bloomberg, the fund industry rolled out more than 640 new exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the first half of this year—an average of more than three a day. There are now more ETFs in the U.S. than there are stocks (4,300 vs. 4,200).

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Sector Fund by Stealth

I’VE RECENTLY MADE the most significant change to my own portfolio in thirty five years. For the first time I’ve moved away from pure market-cap investing, tilting meaningfully toward Europe and Southeast Asia and bringing my US technology concentration down to around fifteen percent.
I’m retired. I don’t need to chase the outperformance that concentration might deliver, and I don’t need the potential volatility that comes with it. This is a personal position rather than any kind of recommendation;

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AI, Bubbles, and Markets

IN AN INTERVIEW a little while back, the technology investor Peter Thiel drew an uncomfortable comparison. Today’s frenzy around artificial intelligence, he said, parallels the tech stock bubble of the 1990s. To illustrate his point, Thiel pointed to Amazon.
By any measure, it’s been an extraordinary success. But, Thiel points out, it hasn’t been a straight line. At one point early on, Amazon shares lost more than 90% of their value.
“My suspicion is that that’s roughly where we are in AI.

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Lessons on the Ground

THE OTHER DAY, WHILE walking to my mailbox, I noticed a summer class schedule for a private gifted youth academy lying on the ground. I assumed it belonged to one of my neighbors, who has elementary-aged children.
Their interest in extra academics didn’t surprise me. Many families move to this area because of its excellent schools. Parents here clearly value education. On any given day, it’s common to hear children practicing the piano or violin as you walk through the neighborhood.

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Economic Trends

LAST WEEK THE government released its monthly employment figures for February. The results weren’t great. Payrolls declined, and unemployment ticked up. These numbers square with other downbeat data, including a recent uptick in bankruptcy filings.
Another worry: Oil prices have been rising, a result of the conflict in the Middle East. That’s a concern because it could lead to a reacceleration of inflation. It could also dampen consumer spending because higher gas prices act like a tax on consumers,

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Spotlight: Flack

This Is Only a Test

I RECENTLY READ AN article in Barron’s that inadvertently revealed two more reasons investing in broad-based index funds is the only sensible course of action. The article, titled “This ‘Crazy’ Retirement Portfolio Has Just Beaten Wall Street for 50 Years,” touted the “All Asset No Authority” (AANA) portfolio. This “simple portfolio” consists of splitting your money equally among U.S. large-company stocks (S&P 500), U.S. small-company stocks (Russell 2000), developed international stocks (MSCI’s Europe, Australasia and Far East index, or EAFE), gold, commodities, U.S. real-estate investment trusts and 10-year Treasury notes, with the portfolio rebalanced annually. This brainchild of Doug Ramsey just marked its 50th anniversary. During that time, it’s earned a 9.8% average annual return, which is about 0.5 percentage point a year less than the S&P 500 but 0.7 percentage point more than a standard 60% stock-40% bond portfolio. Its main benefit is it had substantially less volatility, with no “lost decades.” Sounds great, doesn’t it? Not to me. I have two big issues with AANA. As I read the article, which also appeared on MarketWatch, the first thing I noticed about the portfolio’s 50-year-old record wasn’t its performance, volatility or catchy name. It’s that I wasn’t sure that Mr. Ramsey was, in fact, that old. After a little research, I determined the article was referring to Doug Ramsey, not the renowned financial radio host Dave Ramsey. Doug is younger than Dave and, at 56 years old, it would mean that he created AANA when he was in the early years of grade school. All this quickly led me to realize that AANA was manufactured by back testing—data-mining numerous permutations of different asset classes until one was found with superior risk and return numbers. It reminded me of hedge fund manager Ray Dalio’s All Weather Portfolio. It consists of 40% long-term U.S.…
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My Worst Investment

WHILE READING THE great books on investing, studying financial theory and reviewing our investment performance are essential to becoming a better investor, sometimes it can be useful to learn from the mistakes of others—because what not to do can be even more important than what to do. As Otto von Bismarck may have said, “Only a fool learns from his own mistakes. The wise man learns from the mistakes of others.” Which brings me to me. In 1995, I was a lieutenant in the U.S. Navy stationed in Pearl Harbor, Hawaii. I shared an office with another officer who was a Navy SEAL. Lieutenant O’Brien—or Obie, as he was called—was the prototypical SEAL, handsome, tall and perhaps the most confident man I’ve ever met. Obie walked the halls with a swagger that said, “I don’t care what you just said, now listen to what I’m going to say.” And I must admit that (for too long) I did. He and I would talk about investing and, while I’ve forgotten most of our conversations, I do specifically remember him saying, “You need to get some hard assets.” He then mentioned that he invested in gold and silver through a man named Barry Bellefontaine. Mr. B had monthly seminars, which were held within walking distance of my apartment, which made it quite easy to attend, so I did. It was a typical hotel conference room setup, with rows of chairs, some soft drinks on a table and a sign-in desk. The whole affair lasted about an hour and it was quite obvious that this was not the first presentation he had given. He mentioned that he thought the stock market and Hawaii real estate were overvalued, that he had sold most of his stocks and his house, that inflation was coming, and…
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Not Cool

SHOULD A REASONABLE real estate buyer expect the multiple listing service (MLS) to provide a reasonable description of the property being purchased? What if it doesn’t? All the previous times I’ve purchased real estate, the MLS accurately described the property I was buying. I realized that disclosures were also provided by the seller, and those specified the finer points of what was being purchased. Still, I’d come to expect a certain amount of integrity from the MLS listing itself. That all changed during my most recent real estate adventure. I signed a contract on a condo that, according to the MLS, came with a “large wine fridge.” A few weeks after signing the contract, I was again reviewing the disclosures and noticed that the large wine fridge wasn’t mentioned. The listing agent subsequently confirmed it wasn’t part of the deal, saying the wine fridge would have been part of the deal if I’d agreed to pay the list price. Now, I realize that legally the disclosures are what determines what is and isn’t part of the transaction, but I was dismayed to learn that an item so prominently mentioned in the MLS did not actually “convey,” as they say in real estate lingo. I then became concerned about whether the third space of the three-car private garage and the third of the three outdoor spaces would convey. Thankfully, they did. It also burned me that the large wine fridge would have conveyed if I paid “a full offer.” I’d never heard of such a thing. I wondered how much over asking would have enabled the seller’s Peloton to convey? I pushed my agent to go over the listing agent’s head to attain satisfaction, but the listing agent’s boss was even more obstinate. For most of my working life, I was…
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Neighborhood Watch

I BOUGHT A CONDO a few months back and have spent the past two months moving in. If I’d moved in before I retired, the process would have lasted no more than a month. But as I’m now retired and my time is virtually unlimited, I am merely halfway through the move-in process and type this sitting at a portable camp table. While the move-in has been slow, it’s lightyears faster than the process of meeting the neighbors. While meeting new neighbors has always been a slow process, in the age of COVID-19 it’s downright glacial. The first neighbor I met in my new townhouse community was Maxwell, whose garage is across the alley from mine. I met him during that classic driver of neighbor interaction—throwing out the garbage. Like a cat with a mouse in its mouth, I was proud to report to my wife, “I met a neighbor.” The next time I saw Maxwell, he mentioned he was going to be moving soon and therefore was putting his house on the market. My first thought wasn’t to ask where he was moving or why but, “Damn, the only neighbor I met is moving.” Naturally, my second thought was, “What’s the list price?” Well, a week later, after checking Zillow daily—I am retired—I noticed Maxwell’s place was for sale for $569,900. I was rooting for a quick sale at over the asking price, as Maxwell seemed like a nice guy—and, as his house was comparable to mine, it would mean the place I purchased a few months back had increased nicely in value. Well, two weeks later, I bumped into Maxwell’s wife, Jessica, and she shared the bad news—for all concerned—that their townhouse had only received one offer and it was a lowball bid of $500,000. She blamed a…
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Losing My Cool

IF THERE’S ONE THING that causes more marital stress than money, it’s the thermostat. I figured combining both into one article would be nothing less than genius. As I grow older, I’ve come to appreciate my father’s fascination with the thermostat, because now I, too, am constantly adjusting it. In my case, based on the current and future temperature, humidity and cloud cover, the adjustments are in the most economical direction. My wife is a set-it-and-forget-it kind of gal, which in the summer wouldn't necessarily be an issue, except that she sets it on brrrrr, which is right between nippy and hypothermia. A few months back, cold air stopped issuing from the living room duct. Since our home has two air-conditioning systems, the situation wasn’t catastrophic. I knew, though, that immediate action was required. If the now slightly overworked second system crapped out, a stay at a “nice” hotel would be required—"nice” being a word that strikes fear into the heart of any husband. I contacted the outfit that had performed an annual HVAC inspection a few months prior, at which time no issues were detected. The firm was booked up for the next few days. That made me both upset and elated—upset that they couldn’t arrive instantaneously, but elated to know I wasn’t the only person having cooling issues. That same day, my wife had been visiting a girlfriend who was also in the middle of a cooling crisis. She was able to arrange for her friend’s HVAC guy to stop by our place the next day. The fact that his name was also Mike made it seem like fate. Given that the evaporator coil inside the air handler was a block of ice and the exterior suction line was equally ice bound, my experience as a naval nuclear…
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Clear as Knight

GOOGLE THE WORD “annuity” and you’ll receive 97 million and one results. Is there anything left to be said? Yes, I think there is. About 11 years ago, my 89-year-old mother asked me if she should invest more money in her Knights of Columbus annuity. Unbeknownst to me, she and my father had purchased it many years earlier. It earned a guaranteed 3.5% annual interest rate, which was better than every savings account or certificate of deposit available, plus it was tax-deferred. As I had previously answered her vital questions—“can I get my hair done every other week?” (she could) and “should I give the front desk lady $20 for Christmas?” (she should)—she expected immediate and salient financial advice from her favorite son. I told her I wasn’t sure if she should invest more as my knowledge of annuities was limited. I knew that variable annuities were bad, and that immediate fixed annuities had their uses and that their present value could be easily explained by PV = PMT * [1 – [ (1 / 1+r)^n] / r]. I think she was expecting an answer that was a little more concise—and affirmative. Each time a certificate of deposit matured, she would ask me, “How about putting some money in that K of C annuity?” As a dutiful son—and after the third time she asked—I promised to contact the knight who sold her the annuity those many years ago. Sir Keith was duly contacted and asked to provide details on my mother’s annuity. He was a very nice man, who promptly mailed my mother her most recent statement, which didn’t exactly answer my question. When I called Sir Keith back, he claimed that was all he could do. When I asked for a prospectus, he informed me that there was no such…
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