A World of Problems
Adam M. Grossman | May 17, 2020
WITH EVERYTHING that’s been going on recently, one story that’s received less attention is the ongoing spat between the White House and the board of the Thrift Savings Plan (TSP). As of a few days ago, there had been a ceasefire in the debate, but it isn’t over. It’s worth understanding what’s at stake—because the underlying issue has been a recurring theme in the investment industry. If you aren’t familiar with the TSP, it’s one of the retirement plans available to federal government workers. In lots of ways, it's similar to a private sector 401(k). It allows employees to contribute part of each paycheck. The government also makes contributions. Employees can choose from a menu of investment options. The current debate centers on a proposed change to one of those investment options, called the I Fund, which—as you might guess—invests in international stocks. Currently, the I Fund tracks the MSCI Europe, Australasia and Far East index. But a few years ago, the TSP proposed shifting to a new index called MSCI ACWI ex USA Investable Market index. While these names might sound similar, there’s a big difference: The old index was limited to major developed economies, including France, Germany, Japan and Australia. Meanwhile, the new index also includes stocks from 26 emerging markets countries, including Russia, Indonesia and China. To implement this change, the I Fund would have to sell a substantial share of its existing developed markets holdings so it could purchase these new emerging markets holdings. As you might imagine, it’s the addition of China that the administration opposes. But from an investor’s perspective, this is about more than politics. To be sure, I don't love the Beijing government and that’s a valid reason to oppose this change. Opposition, in fact, has been bipartisan. But the concern I want to address here…
Read more » Leaving on Bad Terms
Adam M. Grossman | Sep 12, 2021
I HAVE A RELATIVE—let’s call her Jane. Last year, in the early days of the pandemic, Jane had the foresight to buy shares in vaccine maker Moderna. With the benefit of hindsight, it was a smart decision. But it wasn’t a difficult one, in Jane's view. It was no secret that the company was working on a COVID-19 vaccine. It was also clear that vaccines would be in high demand. That made the investment case clear. Jane was right. Since then, Moderna’s shares have risen tenfold. This year, it’s been the single best-performing stock in the S&P 500. Jane is a happy investor—but she also has a problem: Deciding when to sell has turned out to be much tougher than deciding to buy. She could, of course, sell now and declare victory. Who wouldn’t be happy with a tenfold gain? But then again, that might be premature. Moderna has lots of other drugs in its pipeline and might be just getting started. To be sure, this is a good problem to have. Still, it isn’t an easy decision—and it turns out that Jane isn’t alone. According to a recent paper titled “Selling Fast and Buying Slow,” professional investors struggle with the same issue. That is, they struggle more with selling than buying. The paper’s researchers selected a group of more than 700 large, professionally managed portfolios, each averaging nearly $600 million. These included pensions, university endowments and the like. Then they examined the trades in these portfolios over a 16-year period. What they found was surprising. First, despite the mantra—and the data—that “active management underperforms,” the data revealed that active managers actually display significant skill when buying. The average stock they purchased went on to outperform by more than one percentage point over the next year. While that might not sound like a lot, consistent…
Read more » Say No to Mo
Adam M. Grossman | Jul 7, 2019
A FEW WEEKS BACK, a reader—let’s call him Karl—challenged me with a question. Why, he asked, don’t I recommend momentum investment strategies? If you aren’t familiar with the term, momentum strategies seek to buy stocks that have done well in the past, with the hope that they will continue rising, while also selling stocks that have done poorly, with the expectation that they will keep falling. Karl asked why, in a recent article, I had dismissed momentum investing as the sort of thing that would turn your portfolio into an “unpredictable stew,” even though research has found that it can be profitable. It’s a fair question. Karl is right that there’s lots of evidence to support momentum strategies. The most commonly cited paper was published in 1993. Since then, many other academics and practitioners have confirmed that it does indeed pay to buy stocks that have been going up and to sell those that have been tumbling. In fact, there’s enough data to conclude that this really isn’t an open question anymore. Momentum definitely works. And it’s not limited just to stocks. Momentum also works with bonds, commodities and other types of investments. Indeed, it’s a remarkably durable feature of investment markets. One paper found evidence of momentum going all the way back to 1801. And yet, despite all this research, I still don’t recommend momentum strategies. Reason No. 1: Costs. Momentum trades don’t last forever. In the 1993 paper referenced above, the authors found that the optimal holding period was just six months. If you want to jump on the bandwagon when a stock is going up, you have to move fast. You can’t wait too long to buy—and you also can’t wait too long to sell. If you do, there’s a high price to pay: After that six-month holding period, momentum tends to reverse and you…
Read more » Moving Target
Adam M. Grossman | Mar 3, 2019
LAST MONTH, The Wall Street Journal ran an article with a puzzling headline: “How China Pressured MSCI to Add Its Market to Major Benchmark.” Like a lot of market news, this arcane-sounding story came and went without much notice. But it’s worth pausing to understand what it was all about—and why it matters to you. First, let's decode the terminology in the article's headline: A “benchmark” is another word for an index. It’s simply a list of stocks or other investments. Probably the best known indexes are the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500, but there are many others. Who is MSCI? While less known than its competitors Dow Jones and Standard & Poor’s, MSCI is a major player in the index business. They have created thousands of indexes. Last year, the business generated more than $800 million in revenue. While MSCI's name is not well known, it’s an influential company. Thousands of index funds are built on its indexes. As a result, when MSCI adds a stock to one of its indexes, some funds are compelled to buy that new stock and this often drives up the share price. Ordinarily, index providers receive little attention, instead operating quietly in the background. They move methodically and make changes to the composition of indexes only incrementally. In its most recent update, for example, the S&P 500 replaced just one stock out of 500. But every once in a while, an index provider does something surprising. In the most recent case, according to the Journal, MSCI succumbed to pressure from China's government to make sweeping changes to one of its best known indexes. China apparently requested that MSCI add more Chinese stocks to its Emerging Markets Index—an index to which trillions of dollars of index funds are linked. This “request” was accompanied by…
Read more » Staying Rich
Adam M. Grossman | Jul 24, 2022
WHEN HE DIED IN 1877, Cornelius “Commodore” Vanderbilt was by far the wealthiest American, with a fortune of $100 million. In the 10 years after his death, his son William succeeded in further doubling those assets. It was an astonishing level of wealth. But that’s precisely when things began to turn. One of Cornelius’s grandsons built the 125,000-square-foot Breakers mansion in Newport. Another commissioned Biltmore in North Carolina, which is still the largest home in America. And, of course, the family endowed Vanderbilt University. The result: Just 50 years after Cornelius’s death, the family’s wealth was essentially gone. Just as lottery winners and professional athletes often end up cursed by their own wealth, so too were the Vanderbilts. Receiving a windfall, it turns out, can be a double-edged sword, no matter how large it is. If you’ve received a windfall—or are planning to leave one to your heirs—below are six recommendations to help avoid the fate of the Vanderbilts. 1. Sketch a plan. A common piece of advice for those receiving a windfall: Avoid taking action too quickly. That’s a good recommendation, but I think it’s also incomplete. It doesn’t tell you when it’s safe to take action or what to do. That’s why I would start by sketching out a plan—with the emphasis on sketching. It’s difficult to formulate the right plan on the first try. It takes time, and there’s no way to force it. Instead, the only way to zero in on the plan that’ll work best for you is to begin with some incremental actions. If you’re thinking of making gifts to charity or to family, for example, start with just a few small gifts. Whatever you have in mind, see if there’s a way to take some half-steps. This will allow you to see what works and what doesn’t, and then adjust.…
Read more » Navigating the Unknowns of Financial Decisions
Adam M. Grossman | Sep 13, 2025
WHEN IT COMES to financial decisions, there are, as I've argued before, two answers to every question: what the calculator says, and how you feel about it. There’s a fly in the ointment, though: Calculator answers might appear to be based in logic, but they’re still imperfect. Why? Ian Wilson, a former executive at General Electric, explained it this way: “No amount of sophistication is going to allay the fact that all knowledge is about the past, and all decisions are about the future.” In the absence of a crystal ball, in other words, even the most seemingly rigorous answer to any question will contain a kernel, if not more, of uncertainty. Consider the question of how to establish an asset allocation. Most people’s first step would be to consult historical data, reviewing past returns for each asset class. That makes sense, and this is certainly how I approach it myself. The challenge, though, is that historical numbers will never be able to perfectly predict the future. At best, they’re a guide, suggesting where things might go. I mentioned recently, for example, investors’ experience in Japan’s stock market. During the 1980s, Japan’s economy boomed. But after peaking in 1989, the Nikkei Index went into a multi-decade slump, recovering only last year, after a long, 34-year slump. It’s doubtful, though, that even the most pessimistic observer could have predicted that result. Such is the difficulty of using historical data. We can’t fully rely on it. And yet, despite its inherent weakness, we also can’t ignore it. Fortunately, there are ways to square this circle. To see how, we can examine four common financial questions. Budgeting Suppose you’re building a retirement plan and trying to estimate your annual expenses. You could do the math, and that’s certainly a good starting point. But…
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Interestingly, this 54-year-old author berating today's seniors benefited from a Harvard and Yale education... most likely funded by his "Boomer Parents." Also, based on his fields of study and education, stereotypically he is most likely a liberal Democrat politically, so I am not surprised that his solutions sound like they were written by AOC, Bernie Sanders, and Mamdani. But...that's just my opinion."What is the right percentage?
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