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If your portfolio isn’t built with broad market index funds, you’ve got to ask yourself one question, “Do I feel lucky?” Well, do ya, punk?

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The Monthly Mystery of the Vanishing Paycheck

"When we were working and raising two children I used to say I just felt like the middleman. I was a pass through from money in to money out. Of course we always paid ourselves first!"
- David Lancaster
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Home Prices and Affordability

"I won’t argue that housing is expensive, because it is. However, this is not news to me and bargain hunters can find exceptions. My first home was purchased in 1978. It was during one of those real estate booms that occur from time to time. Three years later there was a bust and prices settled, but a loan I took out for improvements hit 21% interest. Yow! One thing about real estate it is said that “all real estate is local”. Average pricing can be deceptive. For my first house, I capitulated and purchased a smaller house on a larger lot. It was all I could afford with a 20% down payment. It was significantly less than the average and median prices in that small city. I later purchased a 3BR condo when I downsized for much less than the average prices at the time.   Some compromise and hunting will yield desireable bargains. I sold both at a good price and both were in better condition when I sold than when I purchased. Many apparently think decorating is maintenance.  I currently live in a 2,000 sq. ft. manufactured home which I purchased for 55% of the average price in this community. I invested an additional $15,000 to take care of maintenance issues. Because it is a manufactured home on land I don’t own, I pay $350 annual property tax, but no real estate tax. I also pay an annual resort fee.   Today, the city for my first home has a population of about 53,000, median age is 38. Prices vary significantly. Average home prices are $481,000, the mean is $510,000 and the highest are $700,000-$1 million+.  Clearly, the low end is substantially less than the median, and really nice 3-BR condos are available for $250,000. Median property tax is $4,306. Average rent is $2,500 (median $1,437) and household income is about $120,000. In other words, there is reasonable property available and with very good public schools.  Certainly, some neighborhoods are unaffordable. NYC and many CA cities come to mind. If the real estate price isn’t prohibitive, then the taxes may be, but I think bargain hunters can do well in many locales.  "
- normr60189
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The 34% Return I’m Glad I Missed

"Good post. In case you didn’t know, you were (almost) doing something called “resulting” - judging the quality of a decision based on outcome rather than how and why it was made. Annie Duke talks about it in her book Thinking in Bets. Good that you saw the outcome doesn’t make your decision a bad one."
- Michael1
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Punched in  the Mouth

"I agree with Mike Tyson. I really won't know until it happens, but I do have a plan. I'm a big believer in diversification. Not only in investment sectors and countries but also in income. We currently have five income streams. If anything happens to any of them we'll still be ok. Admittedly long term care could become a financial issue but with our income streams being permanent we should be all right"
- L H
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House Move and the Upcoming Hassle Factor 

"That's a fair point. Most people don't stay in the same house for a full mortgage term. I guess you could view a 35-year mortgage as a strategic tool, a way to get onto the housing ladder at the lowest possible monthly cost. Then, as your career and salary grow, you move up a rung or two and shorten the loan term. But it never hurts to overpay when you can."
- Mark Crothers
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Yes, I am a NIIT wit

"People with concrete ideas are mixed up and set in their ways. (Only contribution I can make to this discussion.)"
- Ocher
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What does ”means” mean?

"Yup, I would say you are living within your means. That Bentley maintenance would have to be included in a persons budget too😎"
- R Quinn
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2025 Tax Return Time – Overview of Changes

"TT had a worksheet for that. It is not that complicated."
- Jerry Pinkard
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Checks and Balances

"My rating for FreeTaxUSA is A+. Excellent software. I didn't bother uploading anything. Federal and state returns complete in no time!!!"
- hitekfran
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Should You Stop Contributing To Your IRA?

"Very thoughtful post. I can't think of a scenario where saving more is bad. I would suggest that debt paydown should be a significant part of the glidepath to retirement. The economics may not be perfect but I will always know the interest I am paying on debt while my return on investments will be foggy. Another issue to consider is the mix of taxable, tax-deferred, and no-tax investments. Many variables here. Current tax rate and future tax rate of the mix is the most important. Those RMD's can drive you into another layer of taxes. Are you able to fund a Roth today? Will you need to use investment funds for an early retirement? Will you need taxable assets to pay the taxes on a Roth conversion. I consider this art, not science. Keep your head in the game and respond to changes in investment trends and tax rates. The answer from years ago may not work today or tomorrow."
- Harold Tynes
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Helping Adult Children

"Why other than college tuition?"
- R Quinn
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The Monthly Mystery of the Vanishing Paycheck

"When we were working and raising two children I used to say I just felt like the middleman. I was a pass through from money in to money out. Of course we always paid ourselves first!"
- David Lancaster
Read more »

Home Prices and Affordability

"I won’t argue that housing is expensive, because it is. However, this is not news to me and bargain hunters can find exceptions. My first home was purchased in 1978. It was during one of those real estate booms that occur from time to time. Three years later there was a bust and prices settled, but a loan I took out for improvements hit 21% interest. Yow! One thing about real estate it is said that “all real estate is local”. Average pricing can be deceptive. For my first house, I capitulated and purchased a smaller house on a larger lot. It was all I could afford with a 20% down payment. It was significantly less than the average and median prices in that small city. I later purchased a 3BR condo when I downsized for much less than the average prices at the time.   Some compromise and hunting will yield desireable bargains. I sold both at a good price and both were in better condition when I sold than when I purchased. Many apparently think decorating is maintenance.  I currently live in a 2,000 sq. ft. manufactured home which I purchased for 55% of the average price in this community. I invested an additional $15,000 to take care of maintenance issues. Because it is a manufactured home on land I don’t own, I pay $350 annual property tax, but no real estate tax. I also pay an annual resort fee.   Today, the city for my first home has a population of about 53,000, median age is 38. Prices vary significantly. Average home prices are $481,000, the mean is $510,000 and the highest are $700,000-$1 million+.  Clearly, the low end is substantially less than the median, and really nice 3-BR condos are available for $250,000. Median property tax is $4,306. Average rent is $2,500 (median $1,437) and household income is about $120,000. In other words, there is reasonable property available and with very good public schools.  Certainly, some neighborhoods are unaffordable. NYC and many CA cities come to mind. If the real estate price isn’t prohibitive, then the taxes may be, but I think bargain hunters can do well in many locales.  "
- normr60189
Read more »

The 34% Return I’m Glad I Missed

"Good post. In case you didn’t know, you were (almost) doing something called “resulting” - judging the quality of a decision based on outcome rather than how and why it was made. Annie Duke talks about it in her book Thinking in Bets. Good that you saw the outcome doesn’t make your decision a bad one."
- Michael1
Read more »

Punched in  the Mouth

"I agree with Mike Tyson. I really won't know until it happens, but I do have a plan. I'm a big believer in diversification. Not only in investment sectors and countries but also in income. We currently have five income streams. If anything happens to any of them we'll still be ok. Admittedly long term care could become a financial issue but with our income streams being permanent we should be all right"
- L H
Read more »

House Move and the Upcoming Hassle Factor 

"That's a fair point. Most people don't stay in the same house for a full mortgage term. I guess you could view a 35-year mortgage as a strategic tool, a way to get onto the housing ladder at the lowest possible monthly cost. Then, as your career and salary grow, you move up a rung or two and shorten the loan term. But it never hurts to overpay when you can."
- Mark Crothers
Read more »

Yes, I am a NIIT wit

"People with concrete ideas are mixed up and set in their ways. (Only contribution I can make to this discussion.)"
- Ocher
Read more »

What does ”means” mean?

"Yup, I would say you are living within your means. That Bentley maintenance would have to be included in a persons budget too😎"
- R Quinn
Read more »

2025 Tax Return Time – Overview of Changes

"TT had a worksheet for that. It is not that complicated."
- Jerry Pinkard
Read more »

Checks and Balances

"My rating for FreeTaxUSA is A+. Excellent software. I didn't bother uploading anything. Federal and state returns complete in no time!!!"
- hitekfran
Read more »

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Get Educated

Manifesto

NO. 34: FIGURING out what we ought to do with our money is relatively easy. Getting ourselves to do it is hard. Victory goes not to the smartest, but to the most disciplined.

think

HOME BIAS. We’re most comfortable owning familiar investments. That’s why we often invest heavily in shares of our employer, local companies and corporations whose products we use, as well as in rental properties. Meanwhile, we shy away from foreign stocks. While the result may be a portfolio we’re happy to own, it’s often a badly diversified one.

humans

NO. 45: WE LOVE yield—the higher, the better. Many investors refuse to sell investments, but happily spend the income that their investments generate. The danger: These folks assume that a high yield means a high return and that all this income can be safely spent, because there’s no risk the yield will come at the expense of shrinking investment values.

act

DON’T LISTEN to market forecasts. Wall Street strategists often spin convincing tales about the stock market’s direction. The danger: Even though we know such forecasts are wrong half the time, these narratives can still subtly influence our thinking, prompting us to make portfolio changes that trigger trading costs and cause us to miss out on market gains.

Help others

Manifesto

NO. 34: FIGURING out what we ought to do with our money is relatively easy. Getting ourselves to do it is hard. Victory goes not to the smartest, but to the most disciplined.

Spotlight: Abuse

Protect Your Privacy

ERIC SCHMIDT SAID this when he was Google’s chief executive: “If you have something that you don’t want anyone to know, maybe you shouldn’t be doing it in the first place.”
In his Congressional testimony last week, Facebook chief executive Mark Zuckerberg didn’t say anything nearly as condescending or abrasive. But his testimony was a good reminder that we’re in a very different world privacy-wise than we were even 10 years ago,

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Stay Safe Out There

SOME YEARS AGO, an elderly neighbor came to our door, asking for a favor. She was looking for packing tape because she’d sold her television and needed to ship it. She went on to say that the buyer, who she’d found on eBay, was in Nigeria. It was, of course, an obvious scam. But for whatever reason, she couldn’t see it.
Today, scams like this are better known and easier to recognize. But what makes online fraud such a problem is that the crooks are always developing new tricks.

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Checking on You

WE’VE ALL HEARD of the three credit bureaus, Equifax, Experian and TransUnion, which compile our all-important credit reports. But have you heard of ChexSystems?
ChexSystems generates reports on bank customers, typically using banking history from the past five years to assess the risk that customers pose to their banks. Those risks are reflected in blemishes on a consumer’s banking history, such as overdrafts and unpaid fees. In some instances, ChexSystems warns banks about potential fraud.

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Stop Thief

THE EQUIFAX DATA breach seems to be a tipping point, unleashing a barrage of articles—and a boatload of angst—about the security of personal information. What are the potential problems and what’s the best way to defend yourself? I got some great ideas from followers of my Facebook page, where I posted a draft of this article and asked for feedback.
It seems there are five key scenarios where hackers could potentially wreak havoc with your financial life.

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Stop Bank Robbers

“YOUR CHECKING ACCOUNT balance is low.” It’s an alert none of us wants to receive, especially if we’ve just been paid. But that was the message that a friend—let’s call him Ron—got recently. A hacker had gained control of his account and started bleeding it dry.
Ron, it turns out, was lucky to have received that alert. Another friend—let’s call him Arthur—received no such alert when his account was also taken over by hackers this summer.

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Facebook Users, Beware! There’s a Scam Afoot!

Being my father’s son and of Scottish heritage, I consider myself to be extremely wary when it comes to falling prey to the grifters and scammers of the world. But this morning, I almost got taken.
I was scrolling through my Facebook feed to see what was going on when I came across a post from an acquaintance who I went to high school with announcing that her family was clearing out items from her father’s house.

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Spotlight: Wilhelm

Which bond fund?

I'm gifting a Wall Street Journal article on the share of AI company debt in the bond market. Just as AI is becoming an ever-growing share of the S&P500, it is becoming a bigger share of the bond market. I have already shifted money from the S&P500 to the rest of the market, and to an international fund, now I'm wondering whether I should do the same for bonds. Since my asset allocation is 50% stocks, I own a fair amount of bonds. Most of the money is in short and intermediate TIPs (VTAPX and VAIPX), and short and intermediate Treasuries (VFIRX and VSIGX), but some is in high-grade corporates (VFSUX and VFICX). Would you only hold Treasuries?
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The Incredible Shrinking — Stock Market?

I see a fair amount about how index funds will ruin the stock market. According to this Wall Street Journal article there is a different and more immediate issue. Seems that there is a drop off in companies raising capital on the open market, instead restricting IPOs or their equivalent to a hand-selected group of insiders. Is this a case for some kind of regulation? Hard to see what kind.
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Some people are never satisfied

The Washington Post has an article on yet another effort to cut taxes for the wealthy. This time it is stepping up the cost basis for capital gains to account for inflation. You'd think they'd at least wait for the dust to settle from the recent give away. I don't know whether the article is behind the pay wall, it's not giving me an option to share it so I did a straight copy.
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Gift to Myself

LATE LAST OCTOBER, I was one of the first to move into the new building at my chosen continuing care retirement community, or CCRC. Now, more than five months later, I’m more confident than ever that I made a good decision. I’m in my mid-70s, single and childless, with relatives 3,000 miles distant in both directions. Both bathrooms at my old home were up 15 stairs. Aging in place was not a good option. Now, I have a large apartment, with two bedrooms, two bathrooms, a den and a balcony. There's plenty of daylight, including in the kitchen, which has full-size appliances and a huge island. The washer and dryer, also huge, have their own closet. My study—with its six bookcases and a big desk—occupies the second bedroom. The setup of both the study and the main bedroom are effectively unchanged from my house. The apartment is cleaned weekly—I'm planning to switch to every other week—and the guy who answers my maintenance requests is great. There’s no shortage of advice on “aging well,” which generally includes recommendations to exercise, eat a healthy diet and stay socially engaged. Since I moved in, I've been using the weight machines and the treadmill in the well-equipped gym, and I'm starting tai chi. In the week ahead, for those of us in independent living, there's a choice of more than 40 exercise classes, including aqua exercise, barre and cardio strength—and that doesn’t count table tennis and pickleball games. Right now, I'm staying with my primary care physician, rather than switching to the onsite clinic, but I’m getting my vaccinations there. I could attend a webinar on tinnitus next week or one on diet later in the month. And I've already seen the continuing care concept at work: A couple of residents injured themselves during move-in. After time in hospital, they stayed in the CCRC’s skilled nursing facility, before being cleared to move into their apartments.  There's a lot going on, including charitable activity for both onsite and offsite recipients. Residents run the gift shop and a semi-annual yard sale to raise money for the residents’ association. This funds the budgets for 15 main committees and a number of sub-committees, including the library, which is run by residents and led by a former professional librarian. A professional director for the choir and a trainer for the dance team are also paid out of these funds. A residents’ council with elected representatives from the various floors and cottage groupings oversees the association's budget and acts as the liaison with management. There are separate fund-raising drives for the foundation that supports residents who run out of money and for employee appreciation. (There's no tipping.) Then there's an annual event for Rise Against Hunger, and ongoing projects for homeless veterans and a local charity shop. Plenty of social events, too. I volunteer in the gift shop and the library, and put puzzles together for the charity shop. I've been on lunch outings, socialized at “meet and greets,” attended committee meetings, classes and onsite entertainment, and made new friends. I've seen complaints on HumbleDollar about living with a bunch of old people. Of course, there are very old people here—residents seem to live a long time. There are also a lot of less old people, especially in the new building where I live. Some people are still working, while others are active volunteers offsite. You need to be at least age 62 to move in, but your spouse could be as young as 55. Food is a perennial topic of conversation, and its quality varies. There’s some excellent but expensive food—paid in dining points—which I indulge in only once or twice a month. The two bars offer very good bar snacks that don't quite make a meal. A sit-down restaurant with table service usually has good food, but occasionally misses. Other options are a not-bad cafe and a food-court-style eatery that I find short on healthy options. Still, the dining director does listen to residents and some better choices are showing up. For instance, all locations recently switched from white to brown rice. Between making new friends and volunteering, I’ve been staying very busy—so busy, in fact, that I’m blocking off Sunday as “introvert recharge day.” A friend who’s considering his next move is concerned that a CCRC is no place for an introvert. But if you want to eat all your meals in your apartment, and only venture out to pick up your food and your mail, you could. Still, given the advice to maintain social connections as we age, that doesn't seem like a particularly good idea. It's a bit early for me to be sure how the financial side will work out. My move wasn't cheap—I’d used the same senior movers before—and I had some distinctly expensive periodontal work done in December and January. I’ll know more when I see the effect of the change on my tax situation. Part of my monthly fee is deductible as a pre-paid medical expense, as was part of my entry fee. Existing residents are extremely welcoming and seem happy. I still believe, as I and others have posted here before, that a move to a CCRC is the best gift you can give your kids. If you're childless, it's the best gift you can give to yourself. But research is critical. Avoid for-profit CCRCs, make sure the facility will keep you if you run out of money, check the financials and be sure to visit in person. Kathy Wilhelm, who comments on HumbleDollar as mytimetotravel, is a former software engineer. She took early retirement so she could travel extensively. Some of Kathy's trips are chronicled on her blog. Born and educated in England, she has lived in North Carolina since 1975. Check out Kathy's previous articles. [xyz-ihs snippet="Donate"]
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Mr. Quinn would be nervous. Would you be?

Towards the bottom of Mr. Quinn's lengthy thread on spreadsheets and budgets I mentioned that I expect to spend a bit under 1% of my portfolio this year. Dick said that he would feel nervous in that situation. I am not currently feeling nervous, but since that percentage will increase over time, maybe I should be. I thought I would ask my fellow contributors what they thought. Some background: I agree with Dick in seeing my income as just Social Security, with COLA, and a company pension, with no COLA. In fact, the pension was frozen when I reached 30 years service in 2000, and has lost value ever since. I expect my SS to overtake it in a couple of years. It's true, that at almost 78 I have been taking RMDs for several years, and the IRS considers that to be income, but since, after QCDs, I simply move the funds from my IRA to my brokerage account, I don't. Equally, the interest and dividends in my brokerage account are on automatic reinvestment. As I expect my medical costs to increase above the rate of inflation, and the monthly fees for my CCRC will probably do the same, I will need more than 1% from my portfolio in future years. I should mention that the portfolio exists solely to make up for the lack of a COLA on my pension. Leaving a legacy would be nice, but as I have no biological children it is not a priority.  If I take the current value of my portfolio (which has increased since the last time I looked), subtract a guesstimate $50,000 for what will likely be my last car and divide by 22 (years to 100), the result is 11.5% lower than my annual SS plus pension, before taxes. In other words, I believe I could nearly double my gross income without a risk of running out of money. No doubt Dick would still feel nervous, but should I?
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A Nuanced View of FIRE

Well, mostly FI, but some RE. (FIRE standing for Financial Independence, Retire Early). Christine Benz from Morningstar recently attended a CampFI event in Spain, and wrote about her experience here. She comments that "A lot of people have a caricatured perception of the FI community. They assume that everyone is trying to live on $10 a day in order to hang it up at age 35." While she met some young people, she met older people as well. She concludes that she learned some valuable lessons from her fellow attendees. A recommended read.
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