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Today, we’re nervous about the economy and financial markets. A few years from now, we’ll struggle to remember why.

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Federal debt

"The problem is the debt has doubled in the last 10 years, while GDP has only grown about 66% over that time. So our debt is growing faster than out economy - that is not sustainable."
- Adam Starry
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The Federal Debt and Social Security Payments

"What you describe is what I call general revenue, i.e. taxes and borrowing."
- Adam Starry
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TreasuryDirect changing login procedure to mandate ID.me later in 2026

"I wonder if your money will eventually go to an unclaimed funds account? And if so, where as these are in states as far as I know."
- Linda Grady
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The Lottery of Birth

"Thank you for the comment, its good to hear from you. You make a good point that the lottery of birth isn't simply about which country has the cheapest healthcare. Every system comes with trade-offs. Higher taxes may help fund healthcare in one country, while higher take-home income and greater personal responsibility for healthcare may be part of the equation in another. I hadn't thought about healthcare affecting the timing of retirement quite that way, but you're right that for many Americans, access to employer-provided health insurance can influence when they're comfortable retiring. It reinforces my larger point: the system we're born into shapes not only what we pay for healthcare, but some of the financial choices we're able to make throughout our lives."
- Andrew Clements
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If Retirement  is Getting Close

"Yes, I'm glad Sophie the Wonder Cat can't read."
- Dan Smith
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Tax Complications – How SS Benefits interact with Other Income

""Clear as mud" is how a new client described the worksheet, after he made mistakes while doing his own taxes, and later getting a dreaded notice from the IRS."
- Dan Smith
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Preparing for SS at Age 70….. How Do I Transition to Monthly Part B Premium Deduction?

"I am not taking SS yet, but am in year 3 on Medicare A&B. When that began, I was on the automatic quarterly billing cycle. I prefer as much stability from month to month for expenses, so requested monthly billing and that was granted. In the online conversation with the Medicare representative, I was assured the monthly billing cycle would continue when I began receiving SS benefits."
- Dave Melick
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Income taxes on retirees with Social Security

"We are in complete agreement that folks in those positions should receive Social Security. In the event my spouse and I ever are eligible at ages 67 and 70 respectively to receive S.S.; every dollar will be donated to Veterans' and First Responder related causes. BTW: Thank you for your service. I had a solemn stroll along the traveling Vietnam Memorial Wall recently and have visited the one in D.C. twice. It brings me to tears every time."
- Dunn Werking
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What is the right percentage?

"Duly noted. Your 'inflation beware' advisement is duly noted.Thanks! Inflation muddles the mind. Using less than 4% of total portfolio value yields greater than 100% of former salary is another math point, but it's all inflated dollars."
- luigi767
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COBRA insurance: No need to fear the bite

"Heidi! Very timely post. Missus and me are in the same boat. We work for large companies with great health plans. We are 10 years out from qualifying for Medicare, but here we are contemplating early retirement. One of the things I have tossed around is this and it maybe something else you might keep in your tool box. We plan to retire at aged 57 and take COBRA because even with us paying full rates, it's gold standard health insurance and the full premiums would be comparable to a market place plan. At aged 57, we do get a small subsidy of about $4k per year towards health costs. Once COBRA at the current employer runs out, I might just take a role for 6-12 mos somewhere else, hop on their insurance, then do COBRA again for another 18 months. Then the missus can take a turn. This is hoping we can get hired, she's an RN, so that's in our favor. I could potentially take a job working retail at Home Depot or one of the chains and play the COBRA carousel. Just another path to consider. Of course it makes sense to compare ACA vs COBRA to see what make the most sense, but that's another option that most do not consider. Good luck and let us know how things go."
- Mike Xavier
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Federal debt

"The problem is the debt has doubled in the last 10 years, while GDP has only grown about 66% over that time. So our debt is growing faster than out economy - that is not sustainable."
- Adam Starry
Read more »

The Federal Debt and Social Security Payments

"What you describe is what I call general revenue, i.e. taxes and borrowing."
- Adam Starry
Read more »

TreasuryDirect changing login procedure to mandate ID.me later in 2026

"I wonder if your money will eventually go to an unclaimed funds account? And if so, where as these are in states as far as I know."
- Linda Grady
Read more »

The Lottery of Birth

"Thank you for the comment, its good to hear from you. You make a good point that the lottery of birth isn't simply about which country has the cheapest healthcare. Every system comes with trade-offs. Higher taxes may help fund healthcare in one country, while higher take-home income and greater personal responsibility for healthcare may be part of the equation in another. I hadn't thought about healthcare affecting the timing of retirement quite that way, but you're right that for many Americans, access to employer-provided health insurance can influence when they're comfortable retiring. It reinforces my larger point: the system we're born into shapes not only what we pay for healthcare, but some of the financial choices we're able to make throughout our lives."
- Andrew Clements
Read more »

If Retirement  is Getting Close

"Yes, I'm glad Sophie the Wonder Cat can't read."
- Dan Smith
Read more »

Tax Complications – How SS Benefits interact with Other Income

""Clear as mud" is how a new client described the worksheet, after he made mistakes while doing his own taxes, and later getting a dreaded notice from the IRS."
- Dan Smith
Read more »

Preparing for SS at Age 70….. How Do I Transition to Monthly Part B Premium Deduction?

"I am not taking SS yet, but am in year 3 on Medicare A&B. When that began, I was on the automatic quarterly billing cycle. I prefer as much stability from month to month for expenses, so requested monthly billing and that was granted. In the online conversation with the Medicare representative, I was assured the monthly billing cycle would continue when I began receiving SS benefits."
- Dave Melick
Read more »

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Get Educated

Manifesto

NO. 14: WE SHOULD avoid impulse spending and investment decisions. Our instincts often lead us astray, but we can usually figure out the prudent choice—if we pause and ponder.

humans

NO. 39: WE LATCH on to information that confirms what we already believe. Instead of dispassionately reviewing the evidence, bullish investors spot reasons for optimism wherever they look, while naysayers see just the opposite. The risk: Such confirmation bias convinces folks they know the market’s direction, prompting them to make big bets they later regret.

think

BETA AND ALPHA. Beta measures an investment’s volatility relative to a benchmark index. If the investment has a positive alpha, it means it beat the index on a risk-adjusted basis, with that risk measured by beta. For instance, a mutual fund could trail the market averages, but still have a positive alpha if its performance wasn’t especially volatile.

act

MAKE SURE SPENDING money is out of stocks. Calculate how much cash you’ll need from your portfolio over the next five years. That money should be out of stocks and invested in nothing more volatile than high-quality short-term bonds. You don’t want to be forced to sell shares at depressed prices—and that could happen if your time horizon is less than five years.

Retirement

Manifesto

NO. 14: WE SHOULD avoid impulse spending and investment decisions. Our instincts often lead us astray, but we can usually figure out the prudent choice—if we pause and ponder.

Spotlight: Insurance

The Cloth Seller Who Invented Social Security

I’ve always had a deep fascination with maths, and recently, thanks to my retirement and the freedom of time it’s given me, I’ve been conducting a bit of “self-educating” on the topic of actuarial science. During this process, I discovered a little-known but fascinating historical character named John Graunt.
He was a 17th-century cloth seller from London who had a very strange hobby. Before starting his workday, he liked to study the Bills of Mortality, which were weekly records compiled by parish clerks,

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Value for Your Cash

TERM LIFE INSURANCE is best for most people: It’s affordable, simple to understand and provides the two or three decades of coverage they need. But that doesn’t mean that permanent “cash value” life insurance is always bad.
The most obvious situation: You actually need insurance permanently. Suppose you’re a business owner and you want to provide money for your family to pay inheritance taxes. By buying life insurance, you’d make sure your family receives a pool of income-tax-free money upon your death,

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Quinn’s last rant for 2024. Misinformation is frustrating. No, your wife is not a car!

In a previous post I outlined what I see as the dilemma Americas face when it comes to paying for health care. 
Since then I have been tracking social media comments on the topic. If the people posting are close to reflecting a significant portion of the population, we are in trouble. 
I suspect the lack of a fundamental understanding of insurance, how companies operate and individual responsibility is not limited to health issues, but also explains a lot about how people manage their finances and use the resources available to them –

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Long-Term Care? Who Has It?

I’m curious about how many HD readers have arranged for long term care in some way, shape, or form.  My policy seems overly complicated, unsurprising since it is an insurance policy.  I know it was explained to me at the time.
In the year I turned 60 I used the cash value from a whole life insurance policy to purchase a long term care plan.  I no longer needed that life insurance.  The actuaries computed a maximum total long term care benefit,

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Interesting White Coat Investor on Lessons Learned Dealing with a LTC Company

Just read this article:
https://www.whitecoatinvestor.com/financial-lessons-father-long-term-care-insurance/
about 10 lessons learned when the author was dealing with obtaining benefits from his father’s LTC insurance company. My parents had policies they bought decades before their deaths. My sister was the DPOA finance so I was not privy to the details of the policies, nor any difficulties she may of had trying to access their benefits.
We don’t have policies, but I figured this information may be valuable to other Humble Dollar readers who do.

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Vet These Policies

YOU LOVE THEM LIKE family. You want them to have the best care possible. You have insurance for yourself, your family, your home, your car and your upcoming vacation. Why not for your pet?
One of our friends recently opted for pet insurance—after multiple trips to the vet, with more than 20 medications prescribed. Intrigued by the idea of pet insurance? Here are eight choices and what they offer:

Pets Best covers everything, including medications,

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Spotlight: Mcintosh

Protecting Poppy

OUR DOG LIKES SOCKS. A few months after Poppy joined our family, she consumed her first sock. Since then, she’s eaten two more. After the first sock was removed, our veterinarian offered some valuable advice: Get pet insurance because Poppy is likely to do this again. Within a few days, we purchased a policy from Healthy Paws for $38 a month. The policy has proven valuable: We’ve had four other unplanned trips to the vet over the past 21 months. For those considering pet insurance—especially first-time pet owners—here’s why I’d recommend coverage: Ease of use. Everything with Healthy Paws is done through a well-designed app. It was easy to sign up and submit claims. For costs you incur, you simply take a picture of the invoice. It’s then reviewed within a few days. So far, there’s been no pushback on charges we’ve submitted and the insurer has always paid claims—net of deductibles—within a few weeks. Straightforward coverage. I often hold my breath when I receive a medical bill for our family’s health coverage because I’m never sure what’s covered. By contrast, Healthy Paws makes coverage easy to understand. We have a deductible of $250 per year. After that, pet insurance covers 80% of most charges. So far, all tests, treatments and prescriptions have been covered. Good return on investment. We saw pet insurance as a safety net that would provide peace of mind. We never thought we’d see a positive return on investment. But so far, our premiums have been $800, while the insurance has covered $1,500 in claims. That recovery rate of 188% is well above the industry average of 70%. We hope our recovery rate is much lower in the future. That said, it’s good to know we’re covered if Poppy gets a hankering for another sock.
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My SPAC Experience

SHAQ AND A-ROD have gotten involved in special purpose acquisition companies, or SPACs, one of the hottest products on Wall Street over the past year. I got there a few years earlier. In 2018, I invested $5,000 in a SPAC that has since underperformed the market. Still, I got some hands-on experience ahead of the 2020-21 boom. Thinking of buying a SPAC? Based on my investment, here’s what you can expect. Tom Farley isn’t a household name like Shaq or A-Rod, but he is a star in the field of business—and he was one of my classmates at Georgetown University. I’ve watched his career as he rose from being an investment banker in the late 1990s to become president of the New York Stock Exchange in 2014. In 2018, Farley left the NYSE to lead a SPAC called Far Point Acquisition Corp. After reading Far Point’s prospectus, I purchased 500 shares at the offering price of $10 per share. The prospectus indicated Far Point would target companies to acquire in the “financial technology, technology or financial services industry.” While this approach seemed compelling, I was mainly investing in Far Point based on the track record of its sponsors, including Farley. My view: When investing in a SPAC, you should focus on finding a team of sponsors who can identify an attractive target and successfully complete an acquisition. As with most other SPACs, Far Point had 24 months to identify an acquisition target. If Far Point’s sponsors couldn’t identify a target during that time, they would return the funds invested to shareholders. For most of the first two years I held Far Point, there was limited news about the company and there was little change in the company’s stock price. Of the 548 trading days between the company’s IPO (initial public…
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Driven to What?

IN THE FIRST WEEK of March, prices for regular unleaded gas sprinted past $5 per gallon in Ventura County, California. Last week, a station I pass on my way to work increased its price three times in 36 hours. Before work on Thursday, March 3, the price was $4.89 per gallon. By the end of that same day, the price was up to $5.09. When I left work on Friday, March 4, the price had been jacked up again, this time to $5.29. As I write this post on Wednesday, March 9, the price has ticked up to $5.69 per gallon. That’s an increase of 80 cents, or 16%, in less than a week. The last time I saw prices over $5 was July 2008. While I don’t remember adjusting my habits when prices hit $4 or $4.50 in 2008, there was something about the $5 threshold that led me and many others to change our daily routine. With 2022 prices looking like they’ll be over $5 per gallon for an extended period, I’m curious to see when and how consumers will change their behavior this time around. Here’s what I’ll be watching for: Wading into the carpool. In 2008, I commuted 50 miles roundtrip. While I lived close to a handful of my coworkers, we all preferred to drive solo most days. But when prices touched $5 per gallon, a group of us started to carpool a few days per week. With continued COVID worries and many people working remotely, carpooling options may be limited in 2022. But if prices continue to rise, I suspect many will start sharing commute time with others. Pricing SUVs. In 2008, demand for gas-guzzling sports utility vehicles dropped dramatically in our area. I had two friends who sold Ford Expeditions around this time. Both…
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Last-Minute Selling

THIS IS THE TIME of year when many folks rush to purchase last-minute gifts. Not me. While others are out buying, I’m at home selling. You see, this is when I make moves in my brokerage account to limit my tax bill. What have I been up to? First, I logged on to my Schwab account and reviewed my year-to-date realized gains and losses. I had generated $8,000 in long-term capital gains earlier in 2021 by selling an appreciated exchange-traded fund. While I knew I was generating a gain at the time, I postponed any tax-loss selling—until now. My next move was to look across my portfolio for any unrealized losses that could offset my $8,000 gain. Fortunately—although, at the same time, unfortunately—I was sitting on a sizable unrealized loss from a hotel-focused real-estate investment trust. I made the most of this negative position by selling a portion to fully offset the capital gain generated earlier in the year. Now, I’m contemplating selling more of this position to have a net capital loss of $3,000 in 2021. A net capital loss of up to $3,000 can be used to offset ordinary income. My final step: Think about next year. In my case, I won’t have a material change in my income next year, so I’m not making any further moves in 2021. The situation is different for a close friend whose portfolio I recently reviewed. She’ll see her 2022 income spike because of a capital gain from a pending real estate transaction. Because of that gain, any capital gains from portfolio moves in 2022 will likely be taxed at 20%. As she’s looking to diversify away from stocks, she decided to take some gains in 2021 on a heavily appreciated S&P 500 fund. By making this move in 2021, she…
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Kids These Days

A FEW WEEKS BACK, Jonathan Clements wrote an article reminding readers that they, too, likely made financial missteps in their younger days. His article was in response to comments by HumbleDollar readers about the perceived lack of financial discipline shown by those currently in their late teens and early 20s. Before my recent career change, I would’ve had the same opinion as many readers. With my new job teaching accounting to undergraduates, however, my perspective has changed. While it’s hard to ignore the pricey lattes accompanying many students to class, I’m bullish on the financial future of today’s college students. First, most students are hustlers. Because of the high cost of college, students often work one or more jobs to help pay for college. I have one student who closely monitors his DoorDash app and knows the optimal times of the week to jump in his car to deliver food. This DoorDash driving is on top of his other work and athletic commitments. I also see students taking advantage of internship opportunities. Given the tight labor market, there’s high demand for student workers among local businesses, especially in accounting. I have one student who will have two paid internships during the spring semester. Instead of relaxing because of a lighter-than-usual course load, she’s ramping up the experience—and income—she’ll collect before she graduates. Another trend I’ve seen: Students are much more interested in stock investing than I was as an undergraduate in the 1990s. I’m regularly approached by students who want to learn how to read financial statements and do fundamental stock analysis. I recently had lunch with a freshman who was keen to learn about the meaning of price-earnings ratios and dividend yields. This student now researches stocks and sends investment ideas to me on a regular basis. A final heart-warmer…
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Betting Against

I’M USUALLY BORING when it comes to investing. My portfolio is mostly comprised of stock and bond index funds. I dabble in individual stocks when I come across something I see as interesting, but individual stocks have never made up more than 5% of my portfolio. I currently hold just three individual stocks amounting to less than 2% of my investment holdings. While my interest is occasionally piqued by stocks with upside potential, I’m more often drawn to companies I see as having significant downside. This glass-half-empty orientation likely reflects the professional skepticism that comes with being a CPA. I’ve never acted on my bearish instincts—until now. Recent developments at Peloton Interactive (symbol: PTON) have led me to wager that the stock will continue declining. I’ve followed Peloton closely for years. I love its product. But a series of management missteps have caused me—and many others—to become bearish on the stock. The company’s troubles have included bungling a product recall and unexpectedly bad financial performance. The last straw for me: Peloton recently raised $1 billion through a stock sale—just two weeks after the company’s chief financial officer indicated such an infusion of capital was unnecessary. To act on my bearishness, I decided that buying a put option was the most prudent approach. Unlike shorting a stock—which has an unlimited downside if shares rise—a put option limits my possible loss to the premium I pay for the put. After considering the array of options available, I paid $200 for a put that gives me the right to sell 100 shares of Peloton at a “strike price” of $35 a share in April 2022. There’s a wide range of possible outcomes for this option position, but I’ll give two possibilities. If the stock trades above $35 in April 2022—which is likely, given…
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