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The Anatomy of a Threshold Rebalance: April 2025

"Agreed , which is exactly why I'd avoid going down the rabbit hole of predicting how the next collapse happens. Just accept that it will, position your portfolio to weather it, then get back to things that actually matter… like debating whether your foot was in the kitchen zone on that smash 😉"
- Mark Crothers
Read more »

What, Me Worry?

"Interesting question: I think I would be able to maintain my lifestyle, however I am sure I would purposely make changes. But, it is unlikely that I will change my lifestyle dramatically based on inflation."
- William Housley
Read more »

Why Marlboro Gold is better Than Gold 

"We are unequipped to deal with a disruption, no matter how many gold bars or cartons of cigarettes we own.  I’ll use a large scale natural disaster as an example. A hurricane struck the Gulf of America a few years ago. Large sections of the states of Louisiana and Mississippi were without power or transportation. Municipal water treatment systems were down. Wells could not be pumped. Within a few days all stores of potable water had been depleted. Several days thereafter the food ran out. Society quickly broke down in previously quiet suburban enclaves. It got ugly, although the media preferred to concentrate reporting elsewhere. Based upon my personal experience, I say if you want to be a survivalist put in a lot of solar power, own a few acres, have a source of potable, treatable water and a stash of seeds, etc. Oh, and better have guns and a lot of ammo.  The fact is, most people would not survive. But dream on."
- normr60189
Read more »

Frugal Fitness

AS A PHYSICAL therapist, I’ve spent a large slice of each work day teaching and encouraging patients as they exercise their way to better health. Along with other elements of treatment, each patient pays for a custom exercise program tailored for their specific problem. These are folks looking for a way past the debilitating effects of injury or disease. Even so, many of them find it hard to follow my plea to “do your exercises”. If they struggle to follow the helpful recommendations of a health professional, what about the rest of us? Over the years, I’ve found that most of us have at least an inkling of the health benefits of exercise. Still, like my patients, we often fail to act on that knowledge. Why? Maybe we can find the answer in the list below. Here are five common barriers that I’ve heard keep people idle: 1. No time. I’m sure it’s true. Long commutes, lengthy work days and activity-packed weekends leave little chance to carve-out a few minutes for our physical health. Even in retirement, time can be siphoned-off by the endless list of errands, obligations and leisure pursuits that keep us running. 2. No knowledge. Strange environment. Strange vocabulary. Strange people who seem at ease and know more than us about everything. That’s the challenge facing the novice exerciser stepping into the gym for the first time. It can lead to fear–fear of embarrassment, fear of injury or just fear of feeling lost. 3. No support. Going against the social flow can be painful for the lone exerciser. Choosing to head into the gym, rather than out for pizza and beer with friends can be hard. Or, maybe our spouse thinks exercise time is selfish time. Like exercise, social connections are important for health as well. Ideally, we shouldn’t have to choose one over the other. 4. No money. Let’s face it, gym admission isn’t free, and a home equipment purchase can quickly run into thousands of dollars. That price is no sweat for a fitness aficionado with extra cash who’s hooked on the exercise habit, but what about the newbie? Few people want a gym membership or treadmill gathering dust, reminding them of the resolution they didn’t keep. 5. No energy or motivation. Hectic schedules leave many of us drained and dreaming of a quiet moment to just be still. Other folks find themselves stuck in a sedentary rut, never straying off the path that leads from one seat to the next. For those in either camp, any thought of pumping iron or pounding pavement holds no appeal. That’s my short, anecdotal list of hurdles hindering folks from launching into a new exercise routine. For an in-depth look at more barriers to physical activity for adults over age 70, check out this systematic review of the research literature. Meanwhile, our bodies are missing the movement that keeps them healthy. What to do? Here are five baby steps to help us past the roadblocks listed above: 1. Minutes matter. It’s easy to get hung up on the notion of needing a set routine of exercises performed within a solid block of time. That may be ideal, but it’s not necessary. We can try weaving convenient exercises into the actual fabric of our lives. By the end of our day, a few, short bouts of five to ten minutes each can add up to meaningful progress toward fitness. 2. Study time. The online world abounds with exercise advice. Experts promise results ranging from building a healthy heart to gaining the perfect glutes. The choices can be overwhelming. I recommend starting tiny. The simple routine I’ve included below can help nearly anyone take the first step. 3. New network. I’m not recommending we dump our motionless friends. Still, our moms warned us about spending too much time with the wrong crowd. Think about who in our circle is already doing a little exercise. Maybe they’d like a partner? Or, maybe there’s someone we could recruit with just a little nudge. 4. Frugal fitness. We don’t have to shell out bucks to a gym to get a workout. Any time we move our body against the force of gravity, we’re exercising. With a little thought, we can round up a robust routine of exercises to perform at home with little or no equipment. Read on to find a starter set of exercises for the true beginners among us. This list costs almost no money and just a little time. 5. Finding a cause. Stuck for a stimulus that rouses us to action? Remember, imagination is often stronger than willpower. Letting our thoughts dwell on the end game can often be helpful. Do we want to cut a fine figure? If so, we don’t have to get swimsuit-svelte to claim success. Even a little slimming and toning from exercise can give our normal clothes a nicer fit. How about feeling better? Researchers from Boston University and the University of Massachusetts found that even a low-intensity exercise program can help older adults improve both physical and psychological fitness. And their study doesn’t stand alone. Reams of other research support their findings, and highlight even more benefits from exercise. Still, on some days, the only force that will get us moving is old-fashioned discipline. It’s the same determination that moves most of us reading this to make better financial choices most of the time. No matter what our motivation, nearly all of us can kick off our trek to better health today with the following routine: 1. Wall push-ups. Stand facing a wall at fingertip distance. With arms held straight at shoulder height, place your palms on the wall a little more than shoulder-width apart. Bend your elbows until your nose almost touches the wall. Push back until your elbows are straight. Repeat until you’ve done 10-20 repetitions. When wall push-ups are too easy, progress to push-ups with your hands against a counter. These exercises strengthen the muscles of your chest, shoulders and arms. 2. Shoulder blade squeeze. Sit or stand and place palms together in front of your chest with elbows bent and pointing down toward your feet. Pull your arms apart while keeping your elbows down until you squeeze your shoulder blades together. Do 10-20 repetitions. To progress, add the resistance of an elastic exercise band. This exercise works the muscles of the upper back. 3. Sit to stand. This is a wonderful exercise for buttock and thigh muscles. To begin, sit at the edge of a firm seat. Lean forward from the hips, then stand up without using hands, if possible. Sit down and repeat for 10 or more repetitions. You should stay balanced, with feet in full contact with the floor, during the entire exercise. 4. Calf raises. Stand with your hands on a counter to maintain balance, Rise up on your toes for 20 repetitions to strengthen the muscles on the back of your lower legs. These muscles are important for walking and balance. 5. Easy crunch. Lie on your back on the floor or bed with your knees bent and feet flat on the supporting surface. Slowly curl your trunk forward as you try to touch your knees with your hands, then slowly return to the starting position. Do 10-20 repetitions to strengthen your abdominal muscles, one important part of your muscular “core”. The last five. This exercise requires a decent set of walking or running shoes. Begin by walking out the front door and up the street for five minutes at a brisk pace. Stop and retrace your steps for the return trip back home, for a total of ten minutes of heart-rejuvenating activity. Will this workout ready us to run a marathon or toned-up to star in the senior sports league? No. Could it be better? Probably. Still, nearly every muscle–including the heart–gets a little work. And it may just draw us into a habit that keeps our bodies sturdy enough to enjoy the years ahead. Ed Marsh is a physical therapist who lives and works in a small community near Atlanta. He likes to spend time with his church, with his family and in his garden thinking about retirement. His favorite question to ask a young person is, “Are you saving for retirement?” Check out Ed’s earlier articles.
Read more »

Developing Champions in your Career and Life

"Great post Jayaraman! Yes, successful careers don’t just happen —they’re usually the result of someone giving someone a chance before the person is fully ready. The mentors who helped me most weren’t the ones with all the answers. They were the ones who trusted me with responsibility, let me make mistakes, and didn’t rush in take over when I stumbled."
- Mark Gardner
Read more »

Economic Trends

LAST WEEK THE government released its monthly employment figures for February. The results weren’t great. Payrolls declined, and unemployment ticked up. These numbers square with other downbeat data, including a recent uptick in bankruptcy filings. Another worry: Oil prices have been rising, a result of the conflict in the Middle East. That’s a concern because it could lead to a reacceleration of inflation. It could also dampen consumer spending because higher gas prices act like a tax on consumers, leaving them with less to spend elsewhere. For these reasons, commentators have started to talk about the possibility of stagflation—a combination of stagnant growth and higher prices. But is that where things are headed? To answer that question, it's worth taking a closer look at two current economic trends. The first is what's been referred to as the K-shaped economy. To understand this idea, imagine a chart plotting the relative standing over time of those with higher incomes and those with lower incomes. Owing to a rising stock market, the shape of the chart for those with higher incomes extends up and to the right. Folks with lower incomes, on the other hand, haven't benefited as much from rising markets, and they've been more affected by higher inflation. So for this group, unfortunately, the shape of the chart is down and to the right. Put the charts together and they form a K. But how will the two legs ultimately affect the economy and the market? At first glance, this K-shaped divide would appear decidedly negative. That’s because lower-income consumers tend to spend a greater proportion of their incomes, so if they’re not doing as well, that can have more of an economic impact. That’s the most obvious conclusion we might draw about a K-shaped economy. But in that kind of economic situation, that likely wouldn’t be the end of the story. Downbeat consumer spending, especially in combination with higher unemployment, would likely lead the Federal Reserve to continue its current round of rate cuts. That, in turn, would help consumers by making everything from mortgages to auto loans to credit card payments less expensive. All things being equal, it would also help the investment markets, owing to the math behind stock valuations. The bottom line: This K-shaped dynamic doesn’t seem great, and probably isn’t great from a societal perspective, but the ultimate financial impact—and the timing of that impact—isn’t certain. The second big economic trend today is the boom in artificial intelligence. That includes the infrastructure build-out, which has been enormous, as well as its productivity impact for users, which is still to be determined. For now, all of the AI-related spending has been positive for the market and for the economy. But what will the ultimate impact be? On that question, there’s a lot more debate. According to one view, AI will meaningfully boost productivity, by giving everyone what amounts to a highly productive assistant, or team of assistants. But there’s no consensus on this. Others believe that AI will replace large numbers of workers and cause widespread unemployment. Which way will things go? This question is harder than it appears. Not only would we need to determine the net effect of AI. We’d also need to determine how those effects net out against all the other economic factors out there, including the K-shaped situation. To choose just one example, tighter immigration controls could lead to higher wages, which could lead to inflation and maybe pressure on corporate profits. The number of factors is almost innumerable. The bottom line: When markets wobble, the standard advice is to avoid overreacting. The reason for that is straightforward: because we can look back at history and see that we’ve managed to get through all past crises, and that the market has always recovered and gone higher. But there’s another reason to avoid reacting too strongly or worrying too much. Where things ultimately go in the economy will always depend on the complicated interplay among all of the factors out there, from AI to the K-shaped economy to the war in the Middle East, and everything else, including things we aren't even currently thinking about. Investors, in other words, should be careful to not focus too narrowly on any one news item because, at any given time, it’s always going to be just one of many factors, and it’s very difficult to know how those factors will all net out, and when.   Adam M. Grossman is the founder of Mayport, a fixed-fee wealth management firm. Sign up for Adam's Daily Ideas email, follow him on X @AdamMGrossman and check out his earlier articles.
Read more »

Is there any point when a child needs financial help that you feel comfortable saying “not my problem?” 

"R Quinn, I don't disagree with your reply on the analysis of the maturity of an 18 year. That is why I referred to them as a "young adult" and said: "Are they experienced and self sufficient, usually not. But maturity levels vary.""
- Doug C
Read more »

Why I Own Gold Bars

"Well written article, but not for me. Remember when everyone was building Nuclear Bomb shelters, what a waste of time. If you think gold bars will get you through, think again, just who is going to be buying them and how do you split them! If we have a level 2 or 3 it will be total chaos. Best you can do is have shelter, with some reasonable level of supplies, and cash. Look we lived through Y2K, and we will get through the next software glitch. My belief is have some cash for when things go South. Costco sells a lot of shiny gold, and now silver too, and they make money doing it."
- William Dorner
Read more »

Forget the 4% rule.

"You hit the nail on the head, there is no one number that fits ALL. But the 4% number is a good all around number to think about. Retirement is all good, if you saved properly for the 40 years before it, which apparently most people do not or can not do. Then they will struggle. At 80 years old, I take out as much as I can to not incur higher taxes."
- William Dorner
Read more »

The Anatomy of a Threshold Rebalance: April 2025

"Agreed , which is exactly why I'd avoid going down the rabbit hole of predicting how the next collapse happens. Just accept that it will, position your portfolio to weather it, then get back to things that actually matter… like debating whether your foot was in the kitchen zone on that smash 😉"
- Mark Crothers
Read more »

What, Me Worry?

"Interesting question: I think I would be able to maintain my lifestyle, however I am sure I would purposely make changes. But, it is unlikely that I will change my lifestyle dramatically based on inflation."
- William Housley
Read more »

Why Marlboro Gold is better Than Gold 

"We are unequipped to deal with a disruption, no matter how many gold bars or cartons of cigarettes we own.  I’ll use a large scale natural disaster as an example. A hurricane struck the Gulf of America a few years ago. Large sections of the states of Louisiana and Mississippi were without power or transportation. Municipal water treatment systems were down. Wells could not be pumped. Within a few days all stores of potable water had been depleted. Several days thereafter the food ran out. Society quickly broke down in previously quiet suburban enclaves. It got ugly, although the media preferred to concentrate reporting elsewhere. Based upon my personal experience, I say if you want to be a survivalist put in a lot of solar power, own a few acres, have a source of potable, treatable water and a stash of seeds, etc. Oh, and better have guns and a lot of ammo.  The fact is, most people would not survive. But dream on."
- normr60189
Read more »

Frugal Fitness

AS A PHYSICAL therapist, I’ve spent a large slice of each work day teaching and encouraging patients as they exercise their way to better health. Along with other elements of treatment, each patient pays for a custom exercise program tailored for their specific problem. These are folks looking for a way past the debilitating effects of injury or disease. Even so, many of them find it hard to follow my plea to “do your exercises”. If they struggle to follow the helpful recommendations of a health professional, what about the rest of us? Over the years, I’ve found that most of us have at least an inkling of the health benefits of exercise. Still, like my patients, we often fail to act on that knowledge. Why? Maybe we can find the answer in the list below. Here are five common barriers that I’ve heard keep people idle: 1. No time. I’m sure it’s true. Long commutes, lengthy work days and activity-packed weekends leave little chance to carve-out a few minutes for our physical health. Even in retirement, time can be siphoned-off by the endless list of errands, obligations and leisure pursuits that keep us running. 2. No knowledge. Strange environment. Strange vocabulary. Strange people who seem at ease and know more than us about everything. That’s the challenge facing the novice exerciser stepping into the gym for the first time. It can lead to fear–fear of embarrassment, fear of injury or just fear of feeling lost. 3. No support. Going against the social flow can be painful for the lone exerciser. Choosing to head into the gym, rather than out for pizza and beer with friends can be hard. Or, maybe our spouse thinks exercise time is selfish time. Like exercise, social connections are important for health as well. Ideally, we shouldn’t have to choose one over the other. 4. No money. Let’s face it, gym admission isn’t free, and a home equipment purchase can quickly run into thousands of dollars. That price is no sweat for a fitness aficionado with extra cash who’s hooked on the exercise habit, but what about the newbie? Few people want a gym membership or treadmill gathering dust, reminding them of the resolution they didn’t keep. 5. No energy or motivation. Hectic schedules leave many of us drained and dreaming of a quiet moment to just be still. Other folks find themselves stuck in a sedentary rut, never straying off the path that leads from one seat to the next. For those in either camp, any thought of pumping iron or pounding pavement holds no appeal. That’s my short, anecdotal list of hurdles hindering folks from launching into a new exercise routine. For an in-depth look at more barriers to physical activity for adults over age 70, check out this systematic review of the research literature. Meanwhile, our bodies are missing the movement that keeps them healthy. What to do? Here are five baby steps to help us past the roadblocks listed above: 1. Minutes matter. It’s easy to get hung up on the notion of needing a set routine of exercises performed within a solid block of time. That may be ideal, but it’s not necessary. We can try weaving convenient exercises into the actual fabric of our lives. By the end of our day, a few, short bouts of five to ten minutes each can add up to meaningful progress toward fitness. 2. Study time. The online world abounds with exercise advice. Experts promise results ranging from building a healthy heart to gaining the perfect glutes. The choices can be overwhelming. I recommend starting tiny. The simple routine I’ve included below can help nearly anyone take the first step. 3. New network. I’m not recommending we dump our motionless friends. Still, our moms warned us about spending too much time with the wrong crowd. Think about who in our circle is already doing a little exercise. Maybe they’d like a partner? Or, maybe there’s someone we could recruit with just a little nudge. 4. Frugal fitness. We don’t have to shell out bucks to a gym to get a workout. Any time we move our body against the force of gravity, we’re exercising. With a little thought, we can round up a robust routine of exercises to perform at home with little or no equipment. Read on to find a starter set of exercises for the true beginners among us. This list costs almost no money and just a little time. 5. Finding a cause. Stuck for a stimulus that rouses us to action? Remember, imagination is often stronger than willpower. Letting our thoughts dwell on the end game can often be helpful. Do we want to cut a fine figure? If so, we don’t have to get swimsuit-svelte to claim success. Even a little slimming and toning from exercise can give our normal clothes a nicer fit. How about feeling better? Researchers from Boston University and the University of Massachusetts found that even a low-intensity exercise program can help older adults improve both physical and psychological fitness. And their study doesn’t stand alone. Reams of other research support their findings, and highlight even more benefits from exercise. Still, on some days, the only force that will get us moving is old-fashioned discipline. It’s the same determination that moves most of us reading this to make better financial choices most of the time. No matter what our motivation, nearly all of us can kick off our trek to better health today with the following routine: 1. Wall push-ups. Stand facing a wall at fingertip distance. With arms held straight at shoulder height, place your palms on the wall a little more than shoulder-width apart. Bend your elbows until your nose almost touches the wall. Push back until your elbows are straight. Repeat until you’ve done 10-20 repetitions. When wall push-ups are too easy, progress to push-ups with your hands against a counter. These exercises strengthen the muscles of your chest, shoulders and arms. 2. Shoulder blade squeeze. Sit or stand and place palms together in front of your chest with elbows bent and pointing down toward your feet. Pull your arms apart while keeping your elbows down until you squeeze your shoulder blades together. Do 10-20 repetitions. To progress, add the resistance of an elastic exercise band. This exercise works the muscles of the upper back. 3. Sit to stand. This is a wonderful exercise for buttock and thigh muscles. To begin, sit at the edge of a firm seat. Lean forward from the hips, then stand up without using hands, if possible. Sit down and repeat for 10 or more repetitions. You should stay balanced, with feet in full contact with the floor, during the entire exercise. 4. Calf raises. Stand with your hands on a counter to maintain balance, Rise up on your toes for 20 repetitions to strengthen the muscles on the back of your lower legs. These muscles are important for walking and balance. 5. Easy crunch. Lie on your back on the floor or bed with your knees bent and feet flat on the supporting surface. Slowly curl your trunk forward as you try to touch your knees with your hands, then slowly return to the starting position. Do 10-20 repetitions to strengthen your abdominal muscles, one important part of your muscular “core”. The last five. This exercise requires a decent set of walking or running shoes. Begin by walking out the front door and up the street for five minutes at a brisk pace. Stop and retrace your steps for the return trip back home, for a total of ten minutes of heart-rejuvenating activity. Will this workout ready us to run a marathon or toned-up to star in the senior sports league? No. Could it be better? Probably. Still, nearly every muscle–including the heart–gets a little work. And it may just draw us into a habit that keeps our bodies sturdy enough to enjoy the years ahead. Ed Marsh is a physical therapist who lives and works in a small community near Atlanta. He likes to spend time with his church, with his family and in his garden thinking about retirement. His favorite question to ask a young person is, “Are you saving for retirement?” Check out Ed’s earlier articles.
Read more »

Developing Champions in your Career and Life

"Great post Jayaraman! Yes, successful careers don’t just happen —they’re usually the result of someone giving someone a chance before the person is fully ready. The mentors who helped me most weren’t the ones with all the answers. They were the ones who trusted me with responsibility, let me make mistakes, and didn’t rush in take over when I stumbled."
- Mark Gardner
Read more »

Economic Trends

LAST WEEK THE government released its monthly employment figures for February. The results weren’t great. Payrolls declined, and unemployment ticked up. These numbers square with other downbeat data, including a recent uptick in bankruptcy filings. Another worry: Oil prices have been rising, a result of the conflict in the Middle East. That’s a concern because it could lead to a reacceleration of inflation. It could also dampen consumer spending because higher gas prices act like a tax on consumers, leaving them with less to spend elsewhere. For these reasons, commentators have started to talk about the possibility of stagflation—a combination of stagnant growth and higher prices. But is that where things are headed? To answer that question, it's worth taking a closer look at two current economic trends. The first is what's been referred to as the K-shaped economy. To understand this idea, imagine a chart plotting the relative standing over time of those with higher incomes and those with lower incomes. Owing to a rising stock market, the shape of the chart for those with higher incomes extends up and to the right. Folks with lower incomes, on the other hand, haven't benefited as much from rising markets, and they've been more affected by higher inflation. So for this group, unfortunately, the shape of the chart is down and to the right. Put the charts together and they form a K. But how will the two legs ultimately affect the economy and the market? At first glance, this K-shaped divide would appear decidedly negative. That’s because lower-income consumers tend to spend a greater proportion of their incomes, so if they’re not doing as well, that can have more of an economic impact. That’s the most obvious conclusion we might draw about a K-shaped economy. But in that kind of economic situation, that likely wouldn’t be the end of the story. Downbeat consumer spending, especially in combination with higher unemployment, would likely lead the Federal Reserve to continue its current round of rate cuts. That, in turn, would help consumers by making everything from mortgages to auto loans to credit card payments less expensive. All things being equal, it would also help the investment markets, owing to the math behind stock valuations. The bottom line: This K-shaped dynamic doesn’t seem great, and probably isn’t great from a societal perspective, but the ultimate financial impact—and the timing of that impact—isn’t certain. The second big economic trend today is the boom in artificial intelligence. That includes the infrastructure build-out, which has been enormous, as well as its productivity impact for users, which is still to be determined. For now, all of the AI-related spending has been positive for the market and for the economy. But what will the ultimate impact be? On that question, there’s a lot more debate. According to one view, AI will meaningfully boost productivity, by giving everyone what amounts to a highly productive assistant, or team of assistants. But there’s no consensus on this. Others believe that AI will replace large numbers of workers and cause widespread unemployment. Which way will things go? This question is harder than it appears. Not only would we need to determine the net effect of AI. We’d also need to determine how those effects net out against all the other economic factors out there, including the K-shaped situation. To choose just one example, tighter immigration controls could lead to higher wages, which could lead to inflation and maybe pressure on corporate profits. The number of factors is almost innumerable. The bottom line: When markets wobble, the standard advice is to avoid overreacting. The reason for that is straightforward: because we can look back at history and see that we’ve managed to get through all past crises, and that the market has always recovered and gone higher. But there’s another reason to avoid reacting too strongly or worrying too much. Where things ultimately go in the economy will always depend on the complicated interplay among all of the factors out there, from AI to the K-shaped economy to the war in the Middle East, and everything else, including things we aren't even currently thinking about. Investors, in other words, should be careful to not focus too narrowly on any one news item because, at any given time, it’s always going to be just one of many factors, and it’s very difficult to know how those factors will all net out, and when.   Adam M. Grossman is the founder of Mayport, a fixed-fee wealth management firm. Sign up for Adam's Daily Ideas email, follow him on X @AdamMGrossman and check out his earlier articles.
Read more »

Is there any point when a child needs financial help that you feel comfortable saying “not my problem?” 

"R Quinn, I don't disagree with your reply on the analysis of the maturity of an 18 year. That is why I referred to them as a "young adult" and said: "Are they experienced and self sufficient, usually not. But maturity levels vary.""
- Doug C
Read more »

Free Newsletter

Get Educated

Manifesto

NO. 3: WE SHOULD focus relentlessly on what we want from our financial life. That’ll motivate us to save, drive our investment strategy—and help ensure we pursue the goals we care about most.

Truths

NO. 135: MORE THINGS can happen than will happen. We have just one past, but we face all kinds of possible futures—and we don’t know which one we’ll get. If we bet big on one stock market segment or one company's shares, we’re ignoring a host of other possible scenarios and our overconfidence could be our undoing. Our best defense: diversification.

act

THINK OF YOUR assets as income. If you retired today, how much income would your nest egg generate? One rule says that, in the first year of retirement, you can withdraw 4% of your portfolio, or $4,000 for every $100,000 saved. It’s a sobering way to assess your readiness—and might lead you to save more, delay retirement or work part-time in retirement.

think

PARETO PRINCIPLE. Also known as the 80-20 rule, the notion is that 80% of outcomes stem from 20% of inputs. For instance, 20% of your purchases might account for 80% of the happiness you get from spending, or 20% of your investment research might have focused on your basic stock-bond mix and yet that drives 80% of your portfolio’s performance.

Estate planning

Manifesto

NO. 3: WE SHOULD focus relentlessly on what we want from our financial life. That’ll motivate us to save, drive our investment strategy—and help ensure we pursue the goals we care about most.

Spotlight: Houses

Would You Rebuild?

This is a thought exercise.
Suppose that you owned a home in Pacific Palisades, or Altadena that was destroyed by one of the wildfires. You have been through a very tough time. The fires are out, and after reporting your loss, you are waiting to hear from the company adjuster. You have a big decision to make……Will you rebuild?
Our little housing area here in the PNW has about 2000 single family homes. The first ones were built in 1976,

Read more »

A Half-Century Later

MY PARENTS RECENTLY moved out of the house they’d lived in for 50 years. A half-century might sound like quite an accomplishment. But they stayed too long.
Their home was a 1940s two-story gray stone house north of Pittsburgh, with a three-quarter acre yard. At the 40-year mark, when my parents were in their mid-to-late 60s, the house began evolving from a safe shelter to a hidden hazard zone. The comfort and familiarity of four decades overshadowed the emerging challenges that would affect them as aging seniors.

Read more »

Hot Topic

IT WAS 90 DEGREES—and we were the unfortunate owners of a broken, 18-year-old heat pump. After evaluating our system, one heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) contractor recommended replacement at a cost of $7,472.
Reluctant to spend that chunk of change, we opted for a second opinion. Company No. 2 spent an hour and a half at our house, changed out a capacitor, added refrigerant and treated the system with “stop-leak,” all for $837.99.

Read more »

Show Me the Cash

THERE ARE A GREAT many terrible problems. Having too much cash typically isn’t seen as one of them. Yet that’s where we are. Following our move back to the U.S. from Spain, we found ourselves with an abundance of cash sitting in our brokerage account. And these days, with interest rates the way they are, that cash doesn’t do much more than sit.
The upshot: We decided to purchase some rental properties. We have one rental unit already—our former home—but we plan to make it our home once again.

Read more »

Starting Over, if you can. Some decisions are subject to change (I apologize for its length)

AGING IN PLACE (So we thought)
Our journey started in the late 1980s with our first remodel. It was our second marriage, and rather than asking our teenage children to share a bedroom when it was “my weekend”, we created two bedrooms and a full bath on the lower level of our split-level. It was a suite with adjoining bedrooms and a private bath. That brought our bedroom count to six, making room for everyone.

Read more »

Should young people buy or rent?

My son is 30 something working in Silicon Valley paying outlandish rents and looking at expensive housing. Is it still a good option to purchase in this market? I was burned on real estate as a young adult and don’t want to advise him If it is not a good idea.

Read more »

Spotlight: Sayler

Turning the Page

I RECENTLY WROTE about taking a seasonal part-time position during the holidays. My job at the bookstore has now ended. Later this year, I’ll decide whether I want to take another part-time job. With that in mind, I thought I’d review the good and not-so-good aspects of the job, while they’re still fresh in my memory. Let’s start with the plusses. First, the job gave structure to my weeks. My employer provided me with a work schedule three weeks in advance. That allowed me to plan my other commitments around the job. Most mornings, I woke up knowing what I had to accomplish that day. Even days when I didn’t work required a bit of planning, since I had less wiggle room to postpone tasks to the next day. Second, there was the interaction with coworkers and customers. I enjoyed talking about the latest books. I’d never before heard of Colleen Hoover. Some customers had never heard of Tony Hillerman or Bertrand Russell. It was great discussing Terry Pratchett’s Discworld books with a customer who had just discovered them. I learned far more about manga and romance novels than I thought I’d ever need to know. I can now at least discuss both genres without a blank stare on my face. The third benefit was that I lost weight while working. I regularly walk the dog, ride my bike and do strength training. But the job provided several thousand additional steps on workdays as I traversed the sales floor shelving books and assisting customers, plus the work schedule kept me from sneaking in a mid-afternoon snack. Finally, there was the money. I hadn’t taken the job because I needed the money to meet daily living expenses or to keep up with inflation. Instead, I opted to work to keep from being bored. But let’s face it, bringing in a few extra dollars can be satisfying. What about the job wasn’t great? Paradoxically, the daily structure may have been a benefit, but it was also the largest drawback. I was once again working for The Man—or, in this case, The Woman. While my employer was flexible about when I worked, I didn’t want to be a burden and place too many restrictions on my work schedule. That meant that, for six weeks, I missed my biweekly game night with friends. As we get older, we have fewer friends and connections. Skipping those games for six weeks was a bigger deal than I’d imagined. I also missed a family gathering that took place one weekend. Next October, I’ll have to decide whether the benefits of seasonal part-time work are greater than the drawbacks. Which way am I leaning? Right now, it really is a toss-up.
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Buy What You Value

IN A RECENT BLOG post, I mentioned a coworker’s Lexus. One commenter—none other than fellow HumbleDollar contributor Dick Quinn—noted that, while “there is no logical reason” the coworker needed a Lexus, he might have motivations I didn’t know about. I didn’t mean to imply my coworker had made an imprudent choice. I spent my career working with engineers and scientists. As a group, we were well paid. We could afford pretty much anything we wanted—just not everything we wanted. I’ve had friends purchase $15,000 custom-made carbon bicycles, buy $1,000 bamboo flyfishing rods and spend thousands making a Christmas village that’s on display for two months a year. While I personally don’t value those items enough to spend that sort of money on them, my friends all earned enough that they could afford to do so. They enjoy their hobbies, and spend countless hours biking, fishing and modeling. While I tend toward frugality, there are two expenditures I make that some of my friends would not choose to make. The first was our family vacations. Every year, our entire family took a vacation. Some years, it was camping in our western national parks. Some years, it was going to a warm southern state in the middle of our long Minnesota winters. But every few years, it would be outside the continental U.S. Our children have accompanied us on trips to Alaska, Hawaii, Quebec, Ireland, France and Italy. While some friends would take their spouse or partner on an overseas trip, a few expressed surprise that we’d take our children, especially when they were younger. These friends would tell me that the kids wouldn’t appreciate the experience or that they’d never remember the trip. I don’t buy those arguments. But even if they’re true, it wouldn’t matter. I worked with my colleagues for 48 weeks a year. I wanted to spend vacation with the people I cared most about—my entire family. That doesn’t mean that I don’t approve of couples who arrange for grandparents to watch the children while they take a holiday. It's just something that I never felt I needed to do. The second expense is even harder to justify. Before retiring, I built it into our budget. Like buying a printer, the initial cost is reasonable, but the ongoing costs are much greater—perhaps $2,300 a year. A bike, car or boat will probably have some residual value at the end of 12 or 15 years. After 12 to 15 years, my expenditures will total in the neighborhood of $30,000 and have zero monetary value. I also know that there are numerous places where I could cut the associated cost, but don’t choose to do so. What’s this expense? My dog. He isn’t a fancy show dog. We don’t hunt. He’s just a companion. I could try to justify him by telling you that by walking him, I save on gym memberships. But it would be a lie. I’ve always had a dog simply because they make me happy. A dog loves you unconditionally, whether you’re a CEO or on the dole. There’s joy in a young dog chasing swallows skimming above the grass. There’s contentment in an old dog enjoying the sun on a cool autumn day. People earn their money. They should spend it as they see fit.
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Our Chosen Road

CONSUMER REPORTS and other authorities will tell you that you get the greatest value for your car-buying dollar by purchasing a two- or three-year-old vehicle. They also often recommend selling your current car after you’ve owned it for about seven years. We favor a different strategy—one that suits our family but certainly isn’t for everybody. My wife’s No. 1 priority is that her vehicle be reliable. She insists that every time she gets in the car, it starts and delivers her to where she needs to be, with no worries along the way. To maximize the chances of that happening, we buy her a new car every eight to 10 years. She gets to drive a car largely under the manufacturer’s warranty, plus today’s cars are very reliable over their first decade. I then get her old car, and continue to drive it until some major mechanical problem crops up or the body rusts such that it’s no longer structurally safe. Once one of those things happen, she gets a new car and I once again take over her old car. This system certainly isn’t for everybody. The second driver of the car ends up with a car that’s eight to 20 years old. The final few years can be rough. The driver of the older vehicle better view a car as transportation only—because some of the amenities will stop working and won’t be worth replacing. If my wife’s heated seats stop functioning, we’ll get them fixed. If they stop working in year 10 or 12, they’re liable to stay not working. The second person also has to be willing to live with the occasional minor malfunction, like the fuel pump failing or a radiator hose bursting. I can almost guarantee that these things will happen on a dark road at 2 a.m. or when you’re running late for an important meeting. They virtually never happen just as you pull into the garage after grocery shopping. [xyz-ihs snippet="Mobile-Subscribe"] A 16- to 20-year-old car with major mechanical issues has low or no resale value. Still, buying a new $40,000 car and driving it 20 years comes out to a reasonable $2,000 per year. That’s the same as buying a $35,000 used car, driving it for seven years and then selling it for $21,000. My brother Larry has calculated the savings I’d get by buying my wife a three-year-old car and driving it until it’s 16 to 20 years old. He tells me that I could have saved tens of thousands of dollars doing that instead of buying a new car. My response: Buying a new car makes my wife happy, and we’ve been happily married for 37 years, so I’m okay with the math. The only time I’ve ever been slightly apprehensive about our car-buying strategy was when I was a young engineer. We were returning from a plant review, which involved several vice presidents. There was an extra seat on the company jet, and they asked me if I’d like a lift home. I jumped at the opportunity. As we landed, two vice presidents mentioned that they'd gotten a ride to the airport and needed a lift back to the office to retrieve their cars. Everybody else on the flight was going in a different direction, so I reluctantly volunteered. I was driving a rusty Chevy station wagon at the time. I threw the two child car seats into the back and swept the loose Cheerios onto the floor mats. These two VPs didn’t come up through the engineering department. They came up through marketing. They wore Armani suits and had watches that cost more than my car. They both hopped in. We talked business the whole way to the office. They both thanked me profusely for the ride—and never gave me a hard time about the car. For that, I am eternally grateful. The best story I’ve heard about driving an older vehicle is from the brilliant actor and filmmaker Mel Brooks in his book All About Me! Brooks was parking his beat-up Honda Civic in the studio lot when Frank Yablans, who had run Paramount Studios and was now a producer, pulled in next to Brooks. Yablans was driving a Rolls-Royce with a leather interior. He looked over at Mel and said, “Mel… I’ll never be big enough to drive a car like that.” Our car-buying system isn’t designed to minimize costs—and it certainly isn’t for the couple where both spouses dislike uncertainty. But it can be a reasonable compromise that allows a family to purchase a new car every so often. Kenyon Sayler is a retired mechanical engineer. He and his wife Lisa are extraordinarily proud of their two adult sons. He enjoys walking his dog, traveling, reading and gardening. Kenyon's brother Larry also writes for HumbleDollar. Check our Kenyon's earlier articles. [xyz-ihs snippet="Donate"]
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The Company You Keep

AFTER ENRON'S COLLAPSE in 2001, there were numerous articles about employees who had most of their money in the company’s stock and how they’d lost it all. Taking that message to heart, I’ve endeavored to keep our holdings of my company’s stock below 10% of our net worth. I must confess, however, that in good times it’s crept up to 15%—and in bad times it’s fallen to zero. I can’t claim any particular insights or novel thoughts on how to manage company stock. I’m willing to share what I’ve done, however, and let you decide how to handle your situation. My company stock came from three main sources: the employee stock purchase plan, the match on my 401(k) contributions, and the stock options or restricted stock awards received as part of my annual compensation. As you’ll see, these three stock programs represent the good, the bad and the ugly of my investing career. The employee stock purchase plan was the good. In our plan, we were allowed to divert up to 10% of our salary to company stock. The best part was that we could buy the stock at a 15% discount to current market prices. Early in my career, there was a machine operator who was retiring. The word in the factory was that he was wealthy. He had been stashing 10% of his pay in company stock for the past 45 years. He had never touched the shares. I’m sure his retirement was much more comfortable than that of most machine operators. I also spent my first five years at the company not touching the stock. We then sold it to make the downpayment on our house. Shortly thereafter, I decided I needed to rethink how to handle the stock purchase plan so I wasn’t overly reliant on the company. For about 20 years, I was able to sell the stock after holding it for only a month. I would purchase the stock one month at a 15% discount and sell it the next month. I always made money. Depending on the market, sometimes I made more than 15% and sometimes less. Some coworkers would scold me, telling me that I should hold the stock for a year to qualify for the lower long-term capital gains rate on my profits. My reply was that—depending on how you do the math—I was making an annualized return of as much as 603%, so I was happy to pay the ordinary income-tax rate. (For math nerds, a 15% discount is equal to an immediate 17.6% monthly gain on the purchase price. Compounded over 12 months, that comes to 603%.) Some would look at me blankly, saying that I was only making 15%. When I couldn’t convince them that I was making far, far more than that on an annualized basis, I’d offer to lend them all the money they wanted at 5% a month. None of them took me up on the offer. Eventually, to encourage long-term investing, the company changed the rules and required a year-long holding period before selling. At the end of the year, rather than selling, we’d donate the shares we’d purchased to charity, thereby avoiding any taxes on the gains. For a while, the company paid its 401(k) matching contribution in company stock, which meant we had an ever-increasing exposure to this single stock. Shortly after Enron blew up, my employer stopped paying the match in company stock, while also allowing us to sell whatever company stock we had in our 401(k) and invest the money in one of the plan’s mutual funds. I promptly traded half my company stock for shares in a broad-based mutual fund. Why only half? I’d heard about the tax advantages of net unrealized appreciation of company stock held within a 401(k). Executed correctly, when you sell, you pay income taxes on the original cost basis of the stock but the lower long-term rate on any gains. I thought that in 20 years, when I retired, this would be a good deal. Fast forward 20 years. I was planning on withdrawing my company stock from the 401(k). Remember the good, the bad and the ugly? This is where we get to the bad. First, the stock had fallen in price, dramatically reducing both its value and the strategy’s tax advantages. [xyz-ihs snippet="Mobile-Subscribe"] Second, I read research by financial planner Michael Kitces suggesting that if you plan to own company stock for the long term, you’d be better off buying it outside the 401(k) to obtain the more favorable long-term capital gain rate on the whole investment and not just on a portion of it. I decided to sell all my shares and diversify using mutual funds in my 401(k). In hindsight, I realize I should have done this much earlier. What about the ugly? That’s been the performance of my company stock options. Part of my compensation was “at risk” compensation. We were able to take this as either restricted stock units, which is a grant of shares at some future time, or as stock options, which would have value only if the shares achieved a specified price in the future. According to my employer, the value of either award was calculated to be the same when they vested in three years. Every year, when it came time to choose how to receive this compensation, there would be lots of discussion about which was the better choice. When asked my opinion, I always said that what I was planning to do wasn’t appropriate for all people, but I’d be taking all my shares in stock options. I had 20 years of data going back to 1978 showing that, if you held the stock options until they expired in 10 years, they performed significantly better than the restricted stock units. I planned to use my stock options as income during the 10 years following my retirement at age 60, and then claim Social Security at age 70. I’m retired now and my remaining stock options are worth exactly zero dollars. Some may be worth money in the future if the company’s shares rise, but the hoped-for income stream from the stock options has vanished. Fortunately, I saved and invested well enough so I won’t have to claim Social Security before 70. Although my stock option decision didn’t play out as planned, the poker player Annie Duke cautions people to not confuse the results with the decision-making process. In other words, you can be right and still lose money. I believe that my process was sound. I knew there was a potential for the options to be worth nothing and so, while it’s disappointing, it’s a financial setback I was prepared for. While there are lots of valid ways to treat company stock, my advice would be to limit the value of your company stock to 10% or less of your total portfolio. As I’ve learned, company stock is a concentrated investment—and you may not be rewarded for the extra risk you run. Kenyon Sayler is a retired mechanical engineer. He and his wife Lisa are extraordinarily proud of their two adult sons. He enjoys walking his dog, traveling, reading and gardening. Kenyon's brother Larry also writes for HumbleDollar. Check our Kenyon's earlier articles. [xyz-ihs snippet="Donate"]
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New Kid on the Job

I'M RETIRED, BUT I KEEP fairly busy. From January through April, I volunteer at AARP, helping folks file their income taxes. From May through October, our vegetable garden keeps me occupied. That leaves November and December as a slow period. There’s some volunteering that I do, but nothing that fills up large amounts of time. This year, I thought I might try some seasonal part-time work to keep myself occupied. Retailers usually need help during the holiday season. I’m sure that I could have gotten a higher wage if I’d applied to work for one of the big discount retail chains. But I really didn’t want to be too stressed by large volumes of customers, so I limited my job search to a few stores that I thought would need extra staff but wouldn’t be swamped by huge crowds on Black Friday. The experience reminded me of three things. Although I knew each of them, it was good to get a refresher. First, resumes still matter. At first, I slightly modified my current curriculum vitae (CV), stating that I wanted a seasonal, part-time retail position, but I left my work experience unchanged. I got soundly rejected by potential employers. Maybe it was discrimination because of my extensive work history. Maybe they thought I was overqualified. It really doesn’t matter—it wasn’t working. I changed my CV. I showed only five years of experience and, instead of saying that I was a manufacturing director, I said I’d been responsible for customer satisfaction. Customer satisfaction was certainly part of my previous job description, just not my only duty. Suddenly, I got more calls from employers, including an employer that had previously rejected me based on my old CV. Second, culture matters. I took a job at a national bookseller. Everybody was very nice to the new guy. I was wondering if this was just lucky happenstance or something that the manager worked to achieve. I found out one day when I had a problem. I thought a customer had a gift card that she was trying to redeem. I couldn’t get the gift card to be accepted, so I sent the customer to another cashier. I warned the cashier over the radio of the issue that I was having, and asked him to let me know what he did to get the card to work. A few minutes later, my colleague radioed me and told me that the person was trying to buy a gift card, not redeem one. I thanked him for letting me know. Being of relatively thick skin, I thought nothing more of the exchange. But then I heard the manager come over the radio and gently suggest to my coworker that perhaps his response had been a bit too sarcastic. Obviously, the manager was working to make sure all discussions were professional and respectful. Third, work is just a way to exchange our time for money. I’d taken the job to meet new coworkers, learn a bit about the book trade and stay out of my wife’s way for a few hours each week. I wasn’t working for the money. But it still affected my thinking. Our dog had a minor medical issue that required a trip to the veterinarian for some pain medication and antibiotics. The vet’s bill came to 20 hours of working. My wife reminded me that I wasn’t paying the vet bills with my current job. Still, I found myself converting all sorts of expenses into the number of hours I’d have to work to pay for them.
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Missing Out

A FRIEND ASKED ME if I was buying cryptocurrencies or nonfungible tokens. When I replied that I was not, my friend asked if I was afraid that I was missing out on the investment of a lifetime. That got me thinking about three great investments where I did indeed miss out. First, in 1981, some young engineers were sitting around talking about what we should invest in. One fellow said he was going to buy a share of Berkshire Hathaway, which was then selling for about $500, equal to a week’s salary. In my wisdom, I said that the stock had performed superbly, but CEO Warren Buffett was 51-years-old and unlikely to stick around much longer. In fact, he’d probably have to retire when he turned 65, a scant 14 years hence. One share of Berkshire Hathaway (symbol: BRK-A) now costs almost $500,000, for an annual return of about 18%. Had I invested the money in an S&P 500-index fund, the price appreciation would have been about 9%. I could add a few percent to the S&P’s return to account for dividends. Still, I clearly missed out on a great stock purchase—and, unfortunately, I didn’t even invest in an S&P 500 fund. More on that later. Next up: In 1990, feeling like I’d missed one great stock picker, I chose another. I purchased Fidelity Magellan Fund. While people today pay zero trading costs, I paid Fidelity a 3% load, or commission, to invest with the great Peter Lynch. Sadly, two months after I purchased the fund, Lynch decided to retire. I never saw the great returns that Magellan had earned in its early years. Note that Lynch was only age 44 when he retired. That’s seven years younger than Buffett was when I was concerned that he would retire. My final miss: I graduated from college in 1981. That was five years after Jack Bogle launched the First Index Investment Trust, which would later be renamed Vanguard 500 Index Fund. I regularly read The Wall Street Journal and Barron’s. I stayed current on the latest investments. Yet I didn’t invest in any index fund until 1990. Shortly after Lynch’s retirement, I decided to forget about finding the next great investment guru and purchased Vanguard 500. I had lost nine years chasing the latest hot hand, either paying steep trading costs or paying mutual fund loads and high management fees. Despite my three misses, our investments have been satisfactory. We’ve provided our children with world class educations. We have been able to travel widely with them, both in the U.S. and abroad. We have a nice home and a secure retirement. So am I worried about not getting in on the ground floor of cryptocurrencies and nonfungible tokens? Not really. Perhaps I’m missing the opportunity of a lifetime. But—like missing Buffett and Lynch—I think our life will still be just fine.
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