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Ageing and the Open Road

RECENTLY I TOOK a free ride on a driverless bus trialling its proposed route, part of my local administration's ten-year rollout plan for self-driving public transport and taxis. I see real potential in this technology, and I'm hoping the infrastructure and implementation stay on schedule. That hope is mostly selfish, I'll admit. In fifteen years I'll be in my mid-seventies, and I'd love to ditch my car and rely on cheap, dependable robo-taxis instead. It would give me freedom precisely in that decade of life when driving starts to become genuinely problematic. I'm planning to change my car in 2027 for a modern hybrid, but in the back of my mind is the thought that it could be my last. If the self-driving rollout hits its targets, I can see the case for never buying another. The advantages for someone in my demographic at that stage of life would be hard to argue with. Think about what car ownership actually costs. There's the purchase price, insurance, road tax, fuel, servicing, tyres, and the occasional bill that arrives like a punch to the stomach. For most people, a car is the second most expensive thing they own after their home. In retirement, when income typically drops and budgets tighten, that ongoing drain becomes harder to justify. This is especially true when the car spends the vast majority of its time sitting on a driveway looking pretty. A robo-taxi model, where you pay only for the journeys you actually take, could represent a dramatic shift in how much personal transport really costs. The numbers, I suspect, will be compelling — with current estimates from real world operations suggesting an 80% reduction in the cost of fares being achievable. Then there's the question of independence. This is the one that matters most to me personally, and I'd imagine it resonates with anyone approaching or already in their later years. Giving up your car keys is one of those milestones that nobody really talks about, but everyone in that demographic understands. It represents a loss of spontaneity and self-sufficiency that can genuinely affect quality of life. The difference with autonomous vehicles is that surrendering the wheel doesn't have to mean surrendering the freedom. A reliable, affordable self-driving taxi available on demand restores something that previous generations simply had to go without once driving became difficult. This could be a trip to the supermarket on a weekday morning or a late evening visit to family. The safety dimension is also worth considering. Reaction times slow as we age. Night vision deteriorates. Concentration over long distances becomes harder. Most older drivers are aware of this and manage it carefully, but there comes a point for everyone where the road becomes a source of anxiety rather than freedom. Autonomous vehicles remove that calculation entirely. You get in, state your destination, and arrive, without the cognitive load of navigating, anticipating other drivers, or worrying whether your responses are still sharp enough. That peace of mind shouldn't be underestimated. There are wider social benefits too. Older people who can no longer drive are disproportionately affected by isolation. Poor rural transport links, infrequent bus services, and the general assumption that everyone has access to a car all contribute to a situation where many retired people find their world gradually shrinking. Autonomous vehicles, particularly if integrated intelligently with existing public transport, have the potential to reverse that. A robo-taxi that can be summoned by a smartphone, or even a simple voice command, could keep people connected to their communities, their families, and their routines far longer than is currently possible. There are, of course, reasons to be cautious. Technology rollouts rarely go entirely to plan. The ten-year schedule my local administration is working to is ambitious, and a lot can change in funding priorities, in public appetite, and in the regulatory environment. The early trials are promising, but promising trials and full-scale dependable infrastructure are very different things. It's worth keeping in mind, with a groan inducing pun: your mileage will vary — literally. Dense urban and suburban areas will almost certainly see reliable services first, and I'm fortunate that describes my situation. For those in more rural communities, the very people for whom isolation is already the sharpest problem, the wait could be considerably longer. I'm hopeful, but I'm not banking on it entirely. Which is why the 2027 hybrid still makes sense. It's a practical hedge, a good, modern, efficient car that will serve me well through the transition years, whatever pace that transition takes. But the fact that I'm already thinking of it as potentially my last car feels significant. A decade ago that thought wouldn't have crossed my mind. The technology has moved from science fiction to credible near-future fast enough to genuinely reshape how I'm thinking about retirement planning. If it delivers, the generation hitting their seventies in the late 2030s could be the first in history for whom ageing and mobility don't have to be in conflict. That's not a small thing. That might turn out to be one of the most personally transformative shifts of the entire autonomous vehicle revolution. It is not about the flashy early adopters or the logistics industry efficiencies. Instead, it is the simple dignity of an older person getting where they need to go, independently, on their own terms. I'm hopeful I'll be taking that ride and certain my children and grandchildren definitely will.
Mark Crothers is a retired small business owner from the UK with a keen interest in personal finance and simple living. Married to his high school sweetheart, with daughters and grandchildren, he knows the importance of building a secure financial future. With an aversion to social media, he prefers to spend his time on his main passions: reading, scratch cooking, racket sports, and hiking.
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Wall Street Trap

IN THE INVESTMENT world, May 1st is a notable day. It was on May 1, 1975 that the Securities and Exchange Commission deregulated the brokerage industry. For the 183 years prior to that, trading commissions on the New York Stock Exchange had been fixed at uniformly high rates. But when deregulation arrived, competition got going. That’s when discount brokers like Charles Schwab got rolling, and over time, May Day, as it’s now referred to, has delivered enormous savings to consumers. More than 50 years later, though, Wall Street still operates in ways that are often at odds with consumer interests. As an individual investor, what are the obstacles to be aware of? At the top of the list is Wall Street’s fixation with individual stocks. For almost 100 years, the data has been clear that stock-picking is counterproductive. Probably the first to uncover this was a fellow named Alfred Cowles. Cowles came from a wealthy family and wondered whether the investment advice his family had been receiving was worthwhile. He set about answering that question and in 1933, published a paper titled “Can Stock Market Forecasters Forecast?” Cowles’s conclusion: They can’t. More recently, research by finance professors Brad Barber and Terrance Odean came to a similar conclusion. The title of their most well known paper is self-explanatory: “Trading Is Hazardous to Your Wealth.”  Along the same lines, Standard & Poor’s regularly examines actively-managed mutual funds to see how many are able to outperform the overall market. The most recent finding: Over the past 10 years, fewer than 15% of funds benchmarked to the S&P 500 managed to beat the index. Research by Jeff Ptak at Morningstar has found that the more active a fund is, the worse it performs. So-called tactical funds, which shift among different asset classes in response to economic forecasts have, in Ptak’s words, “incinerated” shareholder dollars. This data is fairly well known. The problem, though, is that trading activity generates revenue for the brokerage industry, so it has an interest in keeping investors engaged with the market. That’s why brokerage analysts are on TV every day, offering their forecasts for individual stocks, for the overall market and for the broader economy. To be sure, this makes for interesting television. The problem, though, is that it’s been shown to carry almost no value. According to research by Joachim Klement, the accuracy of Wall Street prognosticators is approximately zero. Why are they so poor at forecasting? For starters, there’s the simple fact that no one has a crystal ball. No one can know what a company—or its competitors—will do a month or a year from now, and how that will translate into stock price gains or losses. Sociologist Ezra Zuckerman Sivan uncovered a more subtle explanation. In research published after the technology selloff in 2000, Sivan found that Wall Street analysts are constrained by two obstacles. The first is that they’re dependent on access to companies’ management teams to help in their research. For that reason, it’s in their interest to maintain positive relationships with the companies that they follow. Investment banks that take a positive view on a company may also be rewarded with profitable mergers or acquisitions work when the need arises. Those factors bias stock recommendations overwhelmingly in the direction of “buy” ratings. Another reason analysts tend to avoid negative comments about the companies they cover: Sivan found that there is a community effect that tends to form among the analysts assigned to a given company, and thus an incentive develops to not “rock the boat” in saying anything too critical. People generally want to get along, and that results in a sort of self-censorship. This research is well understood, and yet Wall Street continues to generate forecasts day after day, year after year. Why? There are two explanations, I believe. The first is that it’s entertaining. I’ll be the first to acknowledge that index funds aren’t terribly interesting to talk about. It’s far more interesting to talk about smartphones or AI and the companies behind them. That makes Wall Street analysts invaluable to the media, who need to fill airtime.  And as long as they’re granted that airtime, forecasters are of great value to the brokerage industry. Since trading activity is profitable for Wall Street, it’s in brokers’ interest to generate continued interest in stocks. That brings in commission dollars for brokers. And even though commissions have shrunk in recent years, brokers benefit in other ways from active trading, including the “bid-ask spread” on each trade. That’s the difference between what buyers pay and what sellers receive, and though these spreads are tiny, they add up for the brokers who collect them. For good reason, then, Wall Street continues to promote stock-picking. At the same time, the investment industry is always busy developing new funds. In the first half of last year, for example, fund companies rolled out more than 640 new funds. Among them: funds that hold single stocks with varying degrees of leverage and other seemingly unnecessary new formulations. The result: There are now many more funds than there are stocks trading on U.S. exchanges.  Many of these new funds follow ever more esoteric strategies. They’re often opaque. And almost invariably, they carry higher fees. In a 2011 study titled “The Dark Side of Financial Innovation,” finance professor Brian Henderson and a colleague looked at one popular category of fund known as a structured product. Their conclusion: These funds were overpriced to the point that their expected return was actually a bit below zero. How were they able to market such an inferior product? Henderson’s hypothesis was that the fund companies designed them to be intentionally as complex as possible in order to exploit individual investors. The bottom line: To a great degree, Wall Street is upside down. But as an individual investor, you don’t have to be. My rule of thumb: In building a portfolio, investors should do more or less the opposite of what Wall Street recommends. That, I believe, is a reliable formula for success.   Adam M. Grossman is the founder of Mayport, a fixed-fee wealth management firm. Sign up for Adam's Daily Ideas email, follow him on X @AdamMGrossman and check out his earlier articles.
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Saving for Grandchildren

OUR FIRST GRANDCHILD recently arrived, which naturally has us thinking about the smartest ways to build a strong financial foundation for her future. In 2019, I wrote Take a Break, which outlined saving strategies on behalf of children. Since then, the landscape has changed with the introduction of Trump accounts and Roth-conversion pathways for 529 accounts.  Families have four tax-advantaged savings approaches on behalf of young children plus the Roth IRA option once the child has earned income – 529 education savings account, a Uniform Gift to Minor (UGM) custodial account, a Coverdell account, and the new Trump account. Each option offers a different mix of tax benefits, contribution requirements and withdrawal rules. 529 Accounts Pros
  • Tax-free growth when used for qualified education expenses
  • High gift-tax contribution limits: $19K per contributor per year (indexed)
  • New ability to convert up to $35K into a Roth IRA for the beneficiary
Cons
  • Relatively complex with penalties and taxes on non-qualified withdrawals
  • Limited, state-approved investment options
  • Risk of underutilization if the child does not pursue qualifying education
Caveats
  • Technology and AI could significantly reduce education’s cost structure in the future
  • Roth conversions are capped at $35K lifetime
  • The 529 must be open 15 years, and contributions must age 5 years before conversion
  • Conversions require the beneficiary to have earned income (i.e. they could Roth anyway)
  • Annual Roth contribution limits still apply (e.g., $7.5K in 2026), so completing the full $35K conversion would take five years
UGM Custodial Accounts Pros
  • Brokerage account where up to $2.7K of unearned income can be tax-free each year
  • High gift-tax contribution limits: $19K per contributor per year (indexed)
  • Broad investment flexibility — stocks, bonds, funds, etc.
  • Few restrictions on how funds may be used for the child’s benefit
  • Potential for low taxes on capital gains, but subject to marginal “kiddie tax” at parent’s rates until tax-independency or age 24 
Cons
  • Higher income or capital gains could trigger the kiddie tax at the parents’ marginal rate
  • Assets count as the child’s for financial-aid purposes
Caveats
  • Custodians have some ability to spend down the account for legitimate child expenses if the child is a wild-child in the later teen years
Coverdell Accounts Pros
  • Tax-free growth for qualified education expenses
  • More flexible investment choices than most 529 plans
Cons
  • Low contribution limit: $2K per year plus income limits restrict who can contribute
  • Essentially irrelevant today given the expanded options within 529 plans
Trump Accounts Pros
  • $1K government seed deposit for children born 2025–2028
  • Contribution limit of $5K per year in 2026, indexed to inflation
  • Parent employers may contribute up to $2.5K per year (also indexed)
  • Tax-deferred growth with Roth-conversion opportunities beginning at age 18
  • No earned-income requirement for Roth conversions 
  • Roth conversions are ideal in low-income years starting after age 18 once the child has transitioned to tax-independency of parents or at age 24 when “kiddie taxation” ends. Early tax independence could even be a combined Roth plus student financial-aid strategy
  • Potential to convert large account values over several years at relatively low tax rates (potentially marginal 10-12% tax-rates, but averaging less due to the standard deduction).
Cons
  • Investment options limited to low-cost indexed stock funds (not necessarily a drawback)
  • Penalty-free withdrawals must wait until age 59½, but the accounts could be advantageous even including penalties
  • Limited custodian control and intervention possibilities if the teen is a wild-child
Caveats
  • If Roth conversions are not undertaken during the child’s low-income years, a UGMA invested to capture long-term capital gains tax-rates may outperform a Trump Account taxed at ordinary income tax-rates
  • Watch this space as future adjustments or eligibility changes are possible
  In effect, the 529 is a two-decade college savings program having some complexity and withdrawal limitations; the UGM is a reasonably flexible, 18-30-year college or house downpayment savings program; and the Trump account is a somewhat inflexible, sixty-year retirement accelerator   Resulting Playbook Here is our family’s intended playbook for tax-advantaged accounts in the grandchild's name:
  • Parents’ retirement account fundings remain their top priority - 401K’s at a minimum up to the match, HSAs with their triple tax advantages, and Roths as long as eligible within income limits.
  • A Trump account has already been initiated to secure the free $1K government seed contribution – grows to potentially $2.6K at age 18 after penalties and taxes.
  • Limited 529 funding has also been initiated to start the 15-year clock for potential later Roth conversions. 
  • The family’s next priority is to fund the Trump account which starts at $5K later this year. Maximizing the Roth conversion opportunity will require ~$116K of contributions (at 3% inflation) over 18 years which we grandparents intend to help fund. I estimate the Roth converted Trump account could grow to ~$2 million of tax-free money at age 60 (6% growth) assuming early-age Roth conversions, and the Wall Street Journal projects as much as $3 million (link likely paywalled).
  • The subsequent priorities are to start UGM taxable account and 529 account contributions in parallel to perhaps initial levels of about $35K each. This may take our family some years depending upon available resources for contributions.
For the UGM account, a balance of $35K should capture a sizeable chunk of the annual $2.7K tax-free income limit by investing in high-yield income alternatives. For the 529 account, $35K aligns with the Roth conversion limit. On a personal note, we had extremely positive UGM outcomes with our children. We saved taxes for two decades, and each child used the ~$60K balance as down payments on their first house shortly after college. Due to the 529’s withdrawal rigidities and potential technology impacts, we are unlikely to fund the 529 to the max. 
  • We will skip Coverdells as the alternatives offer ample savings opportunity in the child’s name ($200K+). 
  • Depending upon spare resources available for gifting, we can always reassess future contributions. 
That’s our plan, and we’re sticking to it…. until something changes.    John Yeigh is an author, coach and youth sports advocate. His book “Win the Youth Sports Game” was published in 2021. John retired in 2017 from the oil industry, where he negotiated financial details for multi-billion-dollar international projects. Check out his earlier articles.  
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California, Here They Came

"“Figured it out.” So true, David!"
- D.J.
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Shopping around – you versus the grocery store

"if saving money is a priority, maybe a Walmart trip once a month might be worth it. I’ve found their prices on cleaning products and packaged staples really much cheaper than the traditional supermarket I frequent."
- Marilyn Lavin
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For Richer, For Poorer: 37 Years of Compounding

"David, my daughter has a toaster that cost nearly $300. It's a vast, shiny chrome affair, bristling with more knobs and dials than any self-respecting bread-browner has any business having. The first time I tried to use the thing, I couldn't even work out how to get the bread near the elements."
- Mark Crothers
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The Vision, the Babe , Einstein and the Q

"Harold Tynes, Let me know the next time you go. I'll buy you a Boulevard KC Pils and we can talk Humble Dollar finance."
- mflack
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How Far Behind is the IRS?

"Thanks, but my Mom is not really worried about going to prison. I have told her so many times that the IRS is going to throw her in prison that she now understands I am joking. Rightly or wrongly, she has a lot of confidence in me that I will work this out."
- Larry Sayler
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Note to HD Writers and Contributors

"Welcome back to two of the HD old timers (like me). I hope to see more of them return. 🤞"
- David Lancaster
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Somebody Has to Win

HOW DO YOU COMPETE in an investment contest when you’re a firm believer that investors can’t consistently beat the market averages? That was my dilemma several years ago.

A school not far from where I taught was given money by an alumnus to endow the St. Louis Area Collegiate Investment Contest. All colleges and universities in the area are invited to participate in the competition, which is held regularly. Each is given a hypothetical $1 million and asked to select 20 value stocks. An outside investment firm oversees the contest. They “invest” $50,000 in each of the 20 stocks. Whoever’s portfolio is worth the most two years later wins $10,000—real dollars, that is.

How do we select the 20 stocks for our entry? When I explain the contest to students, I also discuss the evidence that most investors don’t outperform the market. I suggest we could tape the stock pages of The Wall Street Journal to the wall and literally throw darts at it. Several students like this option.

But instead, I distribute Value Line’s current list of 100 stocks most likely to outperform the stock market over the next year. To focus on value stocks, I take these 100 stocks deemed most likely to outperform, circle the 40 or so companies with the lowest price-earnings ratios and ask students to select stocks from this list.

Value Line Investment Survey, which is often available at larger libraries, evaluates approximately 1,700 stocks. Value Line gives each stock a timeliness rating from one to five, indicating its belief that the stock will outperform the market over the next year. My initial list for the students draws on those stocks rated one for timeliness.

Rating             Number of Stocks    Meaning

1                      100                             Most likely to outperform

2                      300

3                      900

4                      300

5                      100                             Least likely to outperform

Value Line has a full-page analysis of each of these 1,700 stocks. Each stock gets a full review every 13 weeks, which means each week it updates this detailed analysis for about 130 stocks. But each week, all 1,700 stocks are evaluated for timeliness.

Some 30 or 40 years ago, there were a few academic studies indicating that Value Line could outperform the market averages. I have seen no recent independent studies of Value Line. My guess is that any advantage Value Line might have had decades ago no longer exists.

While I don’t believe Value Line will outperform the market, it’s one way to narrow down the list of potential stocks. It’s definitely safer than letting college students throw darts in a classroom.

Six schools entered the first contest. We won, receiving $10,000 and an oversized check. I took the check to our next faculty meeting and bragged about our business students. Most faculty assumed I had superior stock-picking skills, and I did not disabuse them of that view. But in my heart, I firmly believed it was just luck.

Six years later, we won again. If six schools enter each year, we ought to win about every six years. I didn’t point out that obvious fact when I went to the faculty meeting with that oversized check.

The very next year, we won again. Did that indicate we had a winning method? No. If six schools enter, and if the winner is completely random, the chance of this year’s winner winning again next year is one out of six. While my method of picking stocks might be superior, I believe two wins in a row is simply a random occurrence.

Recently, the contest was modified. Instead of starting just once a year, it now starts every semester. The payoff for winning was reduced from $10,000 once a year to $5,000 each semester. The number of participating schools has dropped to just four or five, increasing our odds of winning each contest.

Although I'm now retired, our school continues to follow the above method. Over the years, we have won $35,000. We call it our slush fund. Our department has used that money for additional faculty enrichment opportunities, student awards, end-of-the-year catered dinners for graduates and their families, and a host of other good causes. Perhaps most important, our finance students have learned some important lessons about how the stock market works.

Larry Sayler is the only person with a Wharton MBA who also graduated from Ringling Bros. and Barnum & Bailey’s Clown College. Earlier in his career, he served as CFO for three manufacturing and service organizations. For 16 years before his retirement, Larry taught accounting at a small Christian college in the Midwest. His brother Kenyon also writes for HumbleDollar. Check out Larry's earlier articles. [xyz-ihs snippet="Donate"]
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Ageing and the Open Road

RECENTLY I TOOK a free ride on a driverless bus trialling its proposed route, part of my local administration's ten-year rollout plan for self-driving public transport and taxis. I see real potential in this technology, and I'm hoping the infrastructure and implementation stay on schedule. That hope is mostly selfish, I'll admit. In fifteen years I'll be in my mid-seventies, and I'd love to ditch my car and rely on cheap, dependable robo-taxis instead. It would give me freedom precisely in that decade of life when driving starts to become genuinely problematic. I'm planning to change my car in 2027 for a modern hybrid, but in the back of my mind is the thought that it could be my last. If the self-driving rollout hits its targets, I can see the case for never buying another. The advantages for someone in my demographic at that stage of life would be hard to argue with. Think about what car ownership actually costs. There's the purchase price, insurance, road tax, fuel, servicing, tyres, and the occasional bill that arrives like a punch to the stomach. For most people, a car is the second most expensive thing they own after their home. In retirement, when income typically drops and budgets tighten, that ongoing drain becomes harder to justify. This is especially true when the car spends the vast majority of its time sitting on a driveway looking pretty. A robo-taxi model, where you pay only for the journeys you actually take, could represent a dramatic shift in how much personal transport really costs. The numbers, I suspect, will be compelling — with current estimates from real world operations suggesting an 80% reduction in the cost of fares being achievable. Then there's the question of independence. This is the one that matters most to me personally, and I'd imagine it resonates with anyone approaching or already in their later years. Giving up your car keys is one of those milestones that nobody really talks about, but everyone in that demographic understands. It represents a loss of spontaneity and self-sufficiency that can genuinely affect quality of life. The difference with autonomous vehicles is that surrendering the wheel doesn't have to mean surrendering the freedom. A reliable, affordable self-driving taxi available on demand restores something that previous generations simply had to go without once driving became difficult. This could be a trip to the supermarket on a weekday morning or a late evening visit to family. The safety dimension is also worth considering. Reaction times slow as we age. Night vision deteriorates. Concentration over long distances becomes harder. Most older drivers are aware of this and manage it carefully, but there comes a point for everyone where the road becomes a source of anxiety rather than freedom. Autonomous vehicles remove that calculation entirely. You get in, state your destination, and arrive, without the cognitive load of navigating, anticipating other drivers, or worrying whether your responses are still sharp enough. That peace of mind shouldn't be underestimated. There are wider social benefits too. Older people who can no longer drive are disproportionately affected by isolation. Poor rural transport links, infrequent bus services, and the general assumption that everyone has access to a car all contribute to a situation where many retired people find their world gradually shrinking. Autonomous vehicles, particularly if integrated intelligently with existing public transport, have the potential to reverse that. A robo-taxi that can be summoned by a smartphone, or even a simple voice command, could keep people connected to their communities, their families, and their routines far longer than is currently possible. There are, of course, reasons to be cautious. Technology rollouts rarely go entirely to plan. The ten-year schedule my local administration is working to is ambitious, and a lot can change in funding priorities, in public appetite, and in the regulatory environment. The early trials are promising, but promising trials and full-scale dependable infrastructure are very different things. It's worth keeping in mind, with a groan inducing pun: your mileage will vary — literally. Dense urban and suburban areas will almost certainly see reliable services first, and I'm fortunate that describes my situation. For those in more rural communities, the very people for whom isolation is already the sharpest problem, the wait could be considerably longer. I'm hopeful, but I'm not banking on it entirely. Which is why the 2027 hybrid still makes sense. It's a practical hedge, a good, modern, efficient car that will serve me well through the transition years, whatever pace that transition takes. But the fact that I'm already thinking of it as potentially my last car feels significant. A decade ago that thought wouldn't have crossed my mind. The technology has moved from science fiction to credible near-future fast enough to genuinely reshape how I'm thinking about retirement planning. If it delivers, the generation hitting their seventies in the late 2030s could be the first in history for whom ageing and mobility don't have to be in conflict. That's not a small thing. That might turn out to be one of the most personally transformative shifts of the entire autonomous vehicle revolution. It is not about the flashy early adopters or the logistics industry efficiencies. Instead, it is the simple dignity of an older person getting where they need to go, independently, on their own terms. I'm hopeful I'll be taking that ride and certain my children and grandchildren definitely will.
Mark Crothers is a retired small business owner from the UK with a keen interest in personal finance and simple living. Married to his high school sweetheart, with daughters and grandchildren, he knows the importance of building a secure financial future. With an aversion to social media, he prefers to spend his time on his main passions: reading, scratch cooking, racket sports, and hiking.
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Wall Street Trap

IN THE INVESTMENT world, May 1st is a notable day. It was on May 1, 1975 that the Securities and Exchange Commission deregulated the brokerage industry. For the 183 years prior to that, trading commissions on the New York Stock Exchange had been fixed at uniformly high rates. But when deregulation arrived, competition got going. That’s when discount brokers like Charles Schwab got rolling, and over time, May Day, as it’s now referred to, has delivered enormous savings to consumers. More than 50 years later, though, Wall Street still operates in ways that are often at odds with consumer interests. As an individual investor, what are the obstacles to be aware of? At the top of the list is Wall Street’s fixation with individual stocks. For almost 100 years, the data has been clear that stock-picking is counterproductive. Probably the first to uncover this was a fellow named Alfred Cowles. Cowles came from a wealthy family and wondered whether the investment advice his family had been receiving was worthwhile. He set about answering that question and in 1933, published a paper titled “Can Stock Market Forecasters Forecast?” Cowles’s conclusion: They can’t. More recently, research by finance professors Brad Barber and Terrance Odean came to a similar conclusion. The title of their most well known paper is self-explanatory: “Trading Is Hazardous to Your Wealth.”  Along the same lines, Standard & Poor’s regularly examines actively-managed mutual funds to see how many are able to outperform the overall market. The most recent finding: Over the past 10 years, fewer than 15% of funds benchmarked to the S&P 500 managed to beat the index. Research by Jeff Ptak at Morningstar has found that the more active a fund is, the worse it performs. So-called tactical funds, which shift among different asset classes in response to economic forecasts have, in Ptak’s words, “incinerated” shareholder dollars. This data is fairly well known. The problem, though, is that trading activity generates revenue for the brokerage industry, so it has an interest in keeping investors engaged with the market. That’s why brokerage analysts are on TV every day, offering their forecasts for individual stocks, for the overall market and for the broader economy. To be sure, this makes for interesting television. The problem, though, is that it’s been shown to carry almost no value. According to research by Joachim Klement, the accuracy of Wall Street prognosticators is approximately zero. Why are they so poor at forecasting? For starters, there’s the simple fact that no one has a crystal ball. No one can know what a company—or its competitors—will do a month or a year from now, and how that will translate into stock price gains or losses. Sociologist Ezra Zuckerman Sivan uncovered a more subtle explanation. In research published after the technology selloff in 2000, Sivan found that Wall Street analysts are constrained by two obstacles. The first is that they’re dependent on access to companies’ management teams to help in their research. For that reason, it’s in their interest to maintain positive relationships with the companies that they follow. Investment banks that take a positive view on a company may also be rewarded with profitable mergers or acquisitions work when the need arises. Those factors bias stock recommendations overwhelmingly in the direction of “buy” ratings. Another reason analysts tend to avoid negative comments about the companies they cover: Sivan found that there is a community effect that tends to form among the analysts assigned to a given company, and thus an incentive develops to not “rock the boat” in saying anything too critical. People generally want to get along, and that results in a sort of self-censorship. This research is well understood, and yet Wall Street continues to generate forecasts day after day, year after year. Why? There are two explanations, I believe. The first is that it’s entertaining. I’ll be the first to acknowledge that index funds aren’t terribly interesting to talk about. It’s far more interesting to talk about smartphones or AI and the companies behind them. That makes Wall Street analysts invaluable to the media, who need to fill airtime.  And as long as they’re granted that airtime, forecasters are of great value to the brokerage industry. Since trading activity is profitable for Wall Street, it’s in brokers’ interest to generate continued interest in stocks. That brings in commission dollars for brokers. And even though commissions have shrunk in recent years, brokers benefit in other ways from active trading, including the “bid-ask spread” on each trade. That’s the difference between what buyers pay and what sellers receive, and though these spreads are tiny, they add up for the brokers who collect them. For good reason, then, Wall Street continues to promote stock-picking. At the same time, the investment industry is always busy developing new funds. In the first half of last year, for example, fund companies rolled out more than 640 new funds. Among them: funds that hold single stocks with varying degrees of leverage and other seemingly unnecessary new formulations. The result: There are now many more funds than there are stocks trading on U.S. exchanges.  Many of these new funds follow ever more esoteric strategies. They’re often opaque. And almost invariably, they carry higher fees. In a 2011 study titled “The Dark Side of Financial Innovation,” finance professor Brian Henderson and a colleague looked at one popular category of fund known as a structured product. Their conclusion: These funds were overpriced to the point that their expected return was actually a bit below zero. How were they able to market such an inferior product? Henderson’s hypothesis was that the fund companies designed them to be intentionally as complex as possible in order to exploit individual investors. The bottom line: To a great degree, Wall Street is upside down. But as an individual investor, you don’t have to be. My rule of thumb: In building a portfolio, investors should do more or less the opposite of what Wall Street recommends. That, I believe, is a reliable formula for success.   Adam M. Grossman is the founder of Mayport, a fixed-fee wealth management firm. Sign up for Adam's Daily Ideas email, follow him on X @AdamMGrossman and check out his earlier articles.
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Saving for Grandchildren

OUR FIRST GRANDCHILD recently arrived, which naturally has us thinking about the smartest ways to build a strong financial foundation for her future. In 2019, I wrote Take a Break, which outlined saving strategies on behalf of children. Since then, the landscape has changed with the introduction of Trump accounts and Roth-conversion pathways for 529 accounts.  Families have four tax-advantaged savings approaches on behalf of young children plus the Roth IRA option once the child has earned income – 529 education savings account, a Uniform Gift to Minor (UGM) custodial account, a Coverdell account, and the new Trump account. Each option offers a different mix of tax benefits, contribution requirements and withdrawal rules. 529 Accounts Pros
  • Tax-free growth when used for qualified education expenses
  • High gift-tax contribution limits: $19K per contributor per year (indexed)
  • New ability to convert up to $35K into a Roth IRA for the beneficiary
Cons
  • Relatively complex with penalties and taxes on non-qualified withdrawals
  • Limited, state-approved investment options
  • Risk of underutilization if the child does not pursue qualifying education
Caveats
  • Technology and AI could significantly reduce education’s cost structure in the future
  • Roth conversions are capped at $35K lifetime
  • The 529 must be open 15 years, and contributions must age 5 years before conversion
  • Conversions require the beneficiary to have earned income (i.e. they could Roth anyway)
  • Annual Roth contribution limits still apply (e.g., $7.5K in 2026), so completing the full $35K conversion would take five years
UGM Custodial Accounts Pros
  • Brokerage account where up to $2.7K of unearned income can be tax-free each year
  • High gift-tax contribution limits: $19K per contributor per year (indexed)
  • Broad investment flexibility — stocks, bonds, funds, etc.
  • Few restrictions on how funds may be used for the child’s benefit
  • Potential for low taxes on capital gains, but subject to marginal “kiddie tax” at parent’s rates until tax-independency or age 24 
Cons
  • Higher income or capital gains could trigger the kiddie tax at the parents’ marginal rate
  • Assets count as the child’s for financial-aid purposes
Caveats
  • Custodians have some ability to spend down the account for legitimate child expenses if the child is a wild-child in the later teen years
Coverdell Accounts Pros
  • Tax-free growth for qualified education expenses
  • More flexible investment choices than most 529 plans
Cons
  • Low contribution limit: $2K per year plus income limits restrict who can contribute
  • Essentially irrelevant today given the expanded options within 529 plans
Trump Accounts Pros
  • $1K government seed deposit for children born 2025–2028
  • Contribution limit of $5K per year in 2026, indexed to inflation
  • Parent employers may contribute up to $2.5K per year (also indexed)
  • Tax-deferred growth with Roth-conversion opportunities beginning at age 18
  • No earned-income requirement for Roth conversions 
  • Roth conversions are ideal in low-income years starting after age 18 once the child has transitioned to tax-independency of parents or at age 24 when “kiddie taxation” ends. Early tax independence could even be a combined Roth plus student financial-aid strategy
  • Potential to convert large account values over several years at relatively low tax rates (potentially marginal 10-12% tax-rates, but averaging less due to the standard deduction).
Cons
  • Investment options limited to low-cost indexed stock funds (not necessarily a drawback)
  • Penalty-free withdrawals must wait until age 59½, but the accounts could be advantageous even including penalties
  • Limited custodian control and intervention possibilities if the teen is a wild-child
Caveats
  • If Roth conversions are not undertaken during the child’s low-income years, a UGMA invested to capture long-term capital gains tax-rates may outperform a Trump Account taxed at ordinary income tax-rates
  • Watch this space as future adjustments or eligibility changes are possible
  In effect, the 529 is a two-decade college savings program having some complexity and withdrawal limitations; the UGM is a reasonably flexible, 18-30-year college or house downpayment savings program; and the Trump account is a somewhat inflexible, sixty-year retirement accelerator   Resulting Playbook Here is our family’s intended playbook for tax-advantaged accounts in the grandchild's name:
  • Parents’ retirement account fundings remain their top priority - 401K’s at a minimum up to the match, HSAs with their triple tax advantages, and Roths as long as eligible within income limits.
  • A Trump account has already been initiated to secure the free $1K government seed contribution – grows to potentially $2.6K at age 18 after penalties and taxes.
  • Limited 529 funding has also been initiated to start the 15-year clock for potential later Roth conversions. 
  • The family’s next priority is to fund the Trump account which starts at $5K later this year. Maximizing the Roth conversion opportunity will require ~$116K of contributions (at 3% inflation) over 18 years which we grandparents intend to help fund. I estimate the Roth converted Trump account could grow to ~$2 million of tax-free money at age 60 (6% growth) assuming early-age Roth conversions, and the Wall Street Journal projects as much as $3 million (link likely paywalled).
  • The subsequent priorities are to start UGM taxable account and 529 account contributions in parallel to perhaps initial levels of about $35K each. This may take our family some years depending upon available resources for contributions.
For the UGM account, a balance of $35K should capture a sizeable chunk of the annual $2.7K tax-free income limit by investing in high-yield income alternatives. For the 529 account, $35K aligns with the Roth conversion limit. On a personal note, we had extremely positive UGM outcomes with our children. We saved taxes for two decades, and each child used the ~$60K balance as down payments on their first house shortly after college. Due to the 529’s withdrawal rigidities and potential technology impacts, we are unlikely to fund the 529 to the max. 
  • We will skip Coverdells as the alternatives offer ample savings opportunity in the child’s name ($200K+). 
  • Depending upon spare resources available for gifting, we can always reassess future contributions. 
That’s our plan, and we’re sticking to it…. until something changes.    John Yeigh is an author, coach and youth sports advocate. His book “Win the Youth Sports Game” was published in 2021. John retired in 2017 from the oil industry, where he negotiated financial details for multi-billion-dollar international projects. Check out his earlier articles.  
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California, Here They Came

"“Figured it out.” So true, David!"
- D.J.
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Shopping around – you versus the grocery store

"if saving money is a priority, maybe a Walmart trip once a month might be worth it. I’ve found their prices on cleaning products and packaged staples really much cheaper than the traditional supermarket I frequent."
- Marilyn Lavin
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For Richer, For Poorer: 37 Years of Compounding

"David, my daughter has a toaster that cost nearly $300. It's a vast, shiny chrome affair, bristling with more knobs and dials than any self-respecting bread-browner has any business having. The first time I tried to use the thing, I couldn't even work out how to get the bread near the elements."
- Mark Crothers
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The Vision, the Babe , Einstein and the Q

"Harold Tynes, Let me know the next time you go. I'll buy you a Boulevard KC Pils and we can talk Humble Dollar finance."
- mflack
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Get Educated

Manifesto

NO. 70: AS WE decide how much debt to take on and how much money to save, we should ask ourselves a key question: Will our future self be happy with the choices we make today?

act

SEE IF ESTATE taxes are an issue.  Very few Americans need worry about federal estate taxes, given today's high federal exemption. State estate taxes are an issue in just a third of states, and exemptions are typically far below the federal level. But for most Americans, the biggest “death tax” will be the income taxes owed on inherited retirement accounts.

Truths

NO. 67: MOST MUTUAL funds are sector bets. Funds often aim for style purity, sticking with just one stock or bond market niche. To gauge whether a fund is any good, compare it to others in the same category. But to build a diversified portfolio, buy just one or two funds from any given category—and diversify with funds from other categories.

think

NEGATIVE BONDS. When we buy bonds, we lend to others and receive interest in return. Borrowing can be seen as a negative bond: Others lend to us—and we pay them interest. Typically, the interest rate we pay on borrowed money is higher than the yield we can earn by buying bonds. The upshot: Paying down debt is often the smartest “bond” we can buy.

Manage that tax bill

Manifesto

NO. 70: AS WE decide how much debt to take on and how much money to save, we should ask ourselves a key question: Will our future self be happy with the choices we make today?

Spotlight: Behavior

I don’t feel comfortable being “wealthy”

I have been pondering over this post for several days. I fear it will be misinterpreted, but here goes.
I don’t feel comfortable being wealthy. Like it or not, justified or not, planned or not I meet the typical definition of wealthy. These days that seems a dirty word – even though I’m not near the eight figure mark let alone ten.
I just finished our income taxes and it actually feels like we did pay our fair share.

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Here is my favorite word. What is your favorite word? Perhaps frugal, Roth, spreadsheet, planning, Monte Carlo, dividends? 

My favorite word is “aware.”
I believe that missed opportunities, stress, poor decisions of all types, just many of the things we complain about result from not being aware of what is happening around us. 
Being aware means having knowledge or perception of something. It involves noticing, recognizing, or being conscious of what’s happening either around you or within you.
In essence, being aware is about being connected to what is happening, both internally and externally,

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Help Wanted

If you could offer your fellow readers one piece of advice that you’re confident would improve their life, what would it be?
To get us rolling, here’s my suggestion: Be generous with others—but do it when they aren’t expecting it. For instance, folks expect to receive gifts on their birthday, so any gifts you give likely won’t seem all that special. What if, instead, you present them with a gift out of the blue? The element of surprise has the potential to make the gift especially meaningful.

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Lesson Three From Taking Care of a 102 yo in Her Last Year of Life- The Role of Faith in Dying

From the outset let me be clear I am not a religious person for several reasons, one being my personality. My personality is the type that has to see something to believe it. However there is song  Walk On by U2 which has some of the most poignant lyrics in music history. There is a phrase that goes, “
“You’re packing a suitcase for a place none of us has been.
A place that has to be believed to be seen.”
Why am I quoting U2?

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Necessary Skills

As someone who is independent, I try to do as much around the house as I can. I don’t mean housework or laundry; I mean things like unclogging the toilet and putting up shelves. I try to stay as independent as possible to save money and so that I don’t have to be subjected to someone else’s time schedule.
But most of these require certain skills I’ve never learned. I haven’t used an electric snake, or a toilet auger. 

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Generational Perspective

Many Humble Dollar readers, including myself, are on the older side – approaching retirement or already retired. Readership tends to be relatively affluent and educated. Our financial and social perspective may at times be influenced by a generational outlook. At the risk of overgeneralizing, here are some possible baby boomer versus Under 40 year old viewpoints:

Artificial Intelligence

Baby boomer: A new development with many unknowns and exciting possibilities. AI could play a dangerous role in future scams targeting them. 

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Spotlight: Lim

Solomon on Money

THE MOST WIDELY READ book of all time, the Bible, has a lot to say about money. According to biblical scholars, money and wealth are mentioned more than 2,000 times. Out of the roughly 40 parables Jesus told, nearly half speak of money. Why does the Bible make such a big deal about money? The answer belongs in a Sunday sermon, not here. Still, I believe there’s a great deal to be learned from what the Bible says about money. Below are eight verses, all written by King Solomon. Solomon was the wealthiest man of his time. But he was also renowned for his great wisdom. Although he lived almost 3,000 years ago, his insights on money and wealth remain relevant today. Here’s Solomon on money: 1. “A wise man thinks ahead; a fool doesn’t, and even brags about it!” (Proverbs 13:16) While this applies to life in general, it also has huge implications for our finances. Do you know what you would do if a severe recession knocked down the value of your stocks by 40%? If you lost your job, do you have a rainy-day fund to see you through the next six months? Have you thought about the retirement you want and when you want it? The notion of retirement didn’t even exist in Solomon’s time. Thinking ahead is even more important today—and, thanks to the magic of compound interest, planning early pays enormous dividends. 2. “Lazy hands make for poverty, but diligent hands bring wealth.” (Proverbs 10:4) This one isn’t rocket science, but sometimes we need to be reminded about the simple stuff. If you’re a student, are you applying yourself diligently? The greatest financial investment you can make while in school isn’t a Roth IRA, but your own education. If you’re in the workforce, are you…
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Ignore the Score

I NEED TO CONFESS: I’m obsessed with the financial markets. Most weekdays, I check up on U.S. stocks, emerging markets, the EAFE (Europe, Australasia and Far East) index, the 10-year Treasury yield, gold and even the U.S. dollar index, or DXY, as it’s known. Then, at the end of most days, I view my updated portfolio online. I don’t know why I do this. Deep down, I know it’s irrational. At university, I was an electrical engineering major, studying signal processing. This subfield of electrical engineering focuses on the analysis of signals in things like sounds and images. One thing I learned was that all signals contain both information and noise. Electrical engineers work hard to design filters that eliminate noise while preserving the information in a signal. What does this have to do with my financial obsession? Day-to-day fluctuations in markets clearly represent noise. Whether the stock market closes up or down on a given day is mostly a coin toss. There’s little to be gleaned from following the financial markets’ daily gyrations. From my study of behavioral finance, I also know that humans have an asymmetric emotional reaction to gains and losses. Losses leave us sadder and more fearful than gains produce joy and optimism. The net effect of being a close market observer? Undue pain and stress. Still, I’ve always prided myself on taking market volatility in stride. I have a natural proclivity to go against the herd. When the stock market crashed, I would be in there buying. When it soared, I would raise cash. It made sense, then, to stay on top of markets—or so I told myself. What I’ve come to realize is that my obsession is not just unhealthy, but a symptom of a larger malady. The essence of my addiction is a…
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Save for Tomorrow

SOCIAL SECURITY benefits are fairly modest—the average retiree receives $1,555 per month or $18,660 a year—but they’re a vital source of retirement income for countless retirees. Today’s burning question: How can we shore up the program’s finances? It’s estimated that Social Security provides some 30% of the income for the elderly and that nearly nine out of 10 people age 65 and older receive benefits. Social Security is even more important for women, 42% of whom rely on it for half or more of their income. Unfortunately, the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) Trust Fund, from which Social Security benefits are paid, faces imminent shortfalls. The fund’s reserves are projected to be depleted by 2033, at which time continuing tax revenue will be sufficient to pay just 76% of promised benefits. There are no easy solutions. Both higher payroll taxes and lower benefits may be necessary. But how about some out-of-the-box thinking? Meet my suggested solution: the Save for Tomorrow program. The program would cost the federal government very little in the short run but save it vast sums in the long run. It involves the creation of a novel, completely optional retirement account. Here’s the basic framework: Parents, grandparents or legal guardians could opt to open and fund a Save for Tomorrow account for their children or grandchildren. The account would be triple tax-advantaged—contributions would be tax-deductible, funds in the account would grow tax-deferred and future withdrawals would be tax-free. Contributions would be subject to a lifetime limit for each child—say, five times the annual IRA contribution limit. For a child born today, that would mean contributions would be limited to $30,000, equal to five times today’s regular $6,000 IRA limit. Contributions could begin at birth. The contribution window would close once the child reaches age 10. Between ages…
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How Low? Too Low

IT’S WIDELY ASSUMED that the Federal Reserve, our nation’s central bank, has two mandates: maximum employment and stable prices. But a closer look at the Federal Reserve Act of 1977 on the Federal Reserve’s very own website reveals a third mandate, namely “moderate long-term interest rates.” Does a 1.7% yield on 10-year Treasurys and 2.15% on 30-year Treasurys count as “moderate long-term interest rates”? Since I have nothing better to do on the weekend, I headed to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis’s website to see what the average long-term yields have been since the Federal Reserve Act of 1977 passed. The answer: 6.2% for the 10-year Treasury and 6.75% for the 30-year Treasury. The Federal Reserve is doing much better on the employment front, with the unemployment rate hovering around 3.7% lately. And it certainly seems like prices are stable, with both the Fed’s favorite inflation metric and inflation expectations hovering around 1.6%. I guess two out of three isn’t bad. But getting back to the Fed’s third mandate: Is it really a mandate and, if so, does it really matter? To answer the first question, I consulted Prof. Google. I typed “Federal Reserve and moderate long-term interest rates“ into the search box. The top five search results linked to official Federal Reserve websites. A site run by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond tersely states: “The third goal—'moderate long-term interest rates’—is often not explicitly discussed.” According to the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, “These dual policy goals [maximum employment and low stable inflation] imply moderate long-term interest rates.” Talk about a non-mandate mandate. It’s worth noting that the Fed has much less control over long-term interest rates than short-term rates, hence the predictive power of the yield curve. If so, why include the third mandate in the…
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Time Is Running Out

INFLATION CONTINUES to sizzle. November’s Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 9.6% from a year earlier. Even after removing food and energy, PPI was up 7.7%. Both figures are the highest since 2010, when such data were first compiled. This follows last week’s Consumer Price Index report, which showed inflation climbing 6.8% over the past 12 months. Since consumer prices lag producer prices, we can expect little relief from inflation in 2022. All this must be foremost on the minds of Federal Reserve members as they meet this week. Price stability is one of its two mandates, so it’s widely expected that the Fed will accelerate the tapering of its bond purchases. This will position the Fed to raise interest rates sooner as it seeks to quell inflation. Unfortunately, time is running out. A number of factors conspire to make the job of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell a lot more difficult: 1. Inflation expectations are climbing. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, inflation expectations one year out are 6%. This number has doubled since the beginning of the year. This is concerning because, once entrenched, inflation expectations can become a self-fulfilling prophecy. 2. Wages are on the rise. Wages are companies’ largest expense and hence a major determinant of prices. Wages also tend to be sticky, meaning workers are loath to accept cuts in wages. According to a recent survey by the Conference Board, companies plan to raise salaries by 3.9% in 2022. That’s the fastest pace since 2008. 3. The yield curve is flattening. The difference in yield between five-year and 30-year Treasurys was just 0.54 percentage point as of last week. The last time the spread was so small was during the depths of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020. A flattening yield curve has…
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Withdrawal Pains

TWO MONTHS AGO, I fessed up to my addiction to financial market news. Despite knowing better, I’ve followed the markets closely for years and would update my portfolio almost daily. Based on some comments my article received, it appears I’m not alone. In the article, I vowed not to check my portfolio until New Year’s Day 2022. How’s my experiment gone thus far—and what have I learned? My attempt to go cold turkey hasn’t been entirely successful. Though I’ve looked at my portfolio far less often, curiosity sometimes gets the better of me. Over the past two months, I’ve checked in on the market or my portfolio a handful of times. Still, compared to my old ways, I count this as a small victory. One thing I discovered is just how addictive financial market data can be. Kicking the habit has been far more difficult than I’d imagined. Some days, I felt an intense craving for market quotes that were just a few keystrokes away. Usually, though not always, I managed to fight the urge. Another revelation—perhaps obvious in hindsight—is just how difficult it is to insulate oneself from market data. Both The Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg have an electronic “ticker tape” displayed prominently across their websites. Even HumbleDollar recently implemented this feature on its homepage, displaying daily price changes for a dozen exchange-traded index funds representing broad market segments. I felt like a smoker trying to quit but being bombarded by images of cigarettes dancing across my computer screen. By the way, if anyone working for these news outlets is reading this, may I offer a suggestion? Allow subscribers to opt out of seeing dynamic market quotes. Unfortunately, I have a sneaking suspicion that such feeds drive user addiction—I mean, engagement. With regard to checking my portfolio, I…
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