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How long will we live? Based on an article I just read, I’m guessing that it is probably longer than we think. Here’s why.
The authors pointed out that statistics (and I suspect my intuition) are based on death rates, which only take into account the people who have…wait for it…already died. Those still alive are living longer than they used to, based on the trend of longer, healthier life that has persisted up until now.
My favorite simple estimating tool is the single life expectancy table from the IRS. It was recently revised upward. (The IRS makes it hard to link, but lots of people republish it.)
Then there are the life expectancy calculators. You can ask your favorite AI model, “What is the most accurate life expectancy calculator?”
Project Big Life is Canada-specific, but I like that it adjusts my life expectancy as I answer the questions. It rated me down three years because of my BMI (body mass index) to 89, which matches the single life expectancy table.
Living to 100 calculator asks detailed health questions and gave me two more years to 91.
John Hancock had a simple calculator and gave me 95 years. The Life Expectancy Project was even simpler, but also gave me the lowest estimate at 87 years.
So how long do you think you will live and why? I somehow forgot that I’ve been diagnosed with cancer since I last looked at this question, and I have no idea how that will impact my actual life expectancy. But all these estimates seem to expect me to live around another 20 years. I hope some of those are pretty good years!
If you’re willing to do a bit of work, you can get a sense of how family genetics might give you a longevity tailwind or headwind on top of luck and lifestyle (diet, exercise, job etc).
Average longevity varies by birth year cohort so you can’t just look at the average age at death of your ancestors, but that’s a good start. You have to calculate the average difference between your ancestors’ age at death and the longevity of their birth year cohort. I’d weight more heavily the results for nearer ancestors, like parents and grandparents, than ones deeper in your family tree because you carry more of that DNA.
The single biggest factor impacting longevity, after luck, is consistent aerobic exercise plus some regular strength training for resilience and stability. The book Younger Next Year makes the case and has helpful advice.
Based on family history, my mom is 101 & still alive, and dad died when he was 97. BUT, they live in our home land, while I came to America as a 16 years old & have been living on the America diet, plus a high stress professional for 40+ years. I would feel very lucky if I live to be 85.
I always found the best use of longevity calculations is to play with them. I learned that smoking and wearing your seatbelt affect the length of the time that you will live the most!
No one really knows, you can use averages, but every BODY is different. I go by my parents, and most importantly how much stress have you had in your life and work life. So, I tell my brain I want to live to 3 digits, 100. I have a chance, Mom 93 and Dad 101! Grandma 90. There are always surprises too, like when I developed Multiple Myeloma cancer at age 72, but because of good Doctors and Trials, it is at by, always there but so far under control. When it comes to money I like to have extra, so all my spreadsheets and calculations use 100.
Living long, but living healthy is a good thing I think!
I imagine the guesses are going to get a lot better going forward. “Emmie” is being developed by Epic, the My Chart company. It will use AI to incorporate all the health data on an individual and do diagnoses, etc based on that information.
My Dad lived to 95 and could still balance his checkbook. That’s the only actuarial table I need. 🙂
What about your mother?
Oh my. Thanks for asking. Unfortunately she died young, at age 56, as the result of very heavy cigarette smoking. Her internist told my Dad it was one of the worst cases of emphysema he’d ever seen. She could never quit until it was too late. When I was about 4 or 5, I have a recollection of her having two cigarettes going in the house at the same time, unfiltered Pall Malls at the time, one at each end of our small house as she worked. She was a hard worker. My parents were of the “Greatest Generation”, WWII, and so many of them smoked. Her mother, my grandmother, died of cancer at 76. As you can imagine, I never had anything to do with tobacco products.
Sorry about your mother. My father also died of emphysema, but he made it to his mid-80s.
A few of my tax clients used the “how long will it take to use up my capital loss carryovers” method to determine longevity. I had one lady who should make it to age 133.
Dan, I’m amazed at the number of clients who came into AARP TaxAide and their first question was “did I use their capital loss carryover?”.
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Life expectancy tables are useful but limited. The tables describe population averages, not the longevity prediction of any person. For example, a 65-year-old American man might have an average life expectancy of about 83. It means half of the men his age will die before 83, and half later (assuming the median age is same as the average age) – but the tables don’t say which half any person belongs to. They also shift over time with pandemics, new drugs or vaccines. For individuals, longevity depends on a mixed of genetics, lifestyle, psycho-socio-economic influences, and even the will to live before end of life.
At age 79, I just renewed my Driver’s License for 8 more years, so I know I will live at least that long. 😇
At 71, I just renewed my CDL license but only for 2 years. Have to pass a medical exam every renewal. I still enjoy driving a school bus on field trips for my son’s robotics teams. He’s a high school engineering teacher and his students are a lot of fun to be around on these trips! So I’m taking it 2 years at a time.😏
I used the actuarial tables as one source. Perhaps more important is family history. Grandparents lived into their 80s, wars excluded. My twin and a sibling passed of health issues in their 50s. My parents passed at ages 70 & 72 of health issues. All of this incentivized me to live with the assumption I too would die of early health issues, so I lived my life that way. In 2022 became gravely ill and was diagnosed with a stage 4 inoperable cancer with less than 15% chance of survivability and it was recommended i go into hospice. I didn’t and after massive radiation treatment, chemotherapy and immunotherapy i lived long enough that my oncologist recently said I am a cancer survivor. I perceive this to be a temporary situation We’re currently on a 6,000 mile RV jaunt, and just completed a portion of this trek in Michigan’s upper peninsula. I recently celebrated my 79th birthday. Life is full of surprises. Some we define as good. In fact, the sands of our time on earth are running out for each of us. Perhaps it is better to focus on the now.
I used to obsess about this because of heart attack heredity — no male on my dad’s side had ever made 60. That’s why I started on statins when I was 40. But then again there had been zero cancer in my family until I went two rounds with it, and my type 1 diabetes — a gift from the cancer — is likewise unique. So my genetic story doesn’t fit any of those calculators. I’ll just wing it… and keep eating corned beef sandwiches.
As to living to 100, no thanks. With no close family, it would be a desperately lonely existence. So I’ll be happy to take the train at 86 or so, leaving my wife in her early 70’s with plenty of time and money to enjoy a happy, relaxed final stage.
Say most people the day before they are hit by a bus…
Yes Mike, “The Best Laid Plans…”
Hope for the best, plan for the worst.
Every time I mention my planning finically for my wife to live to 100+ (her mother lived to 103 1/4, great aunt yo 103 1/2) she mentions the bus scenario. What is ironic is where we live in rural New Hampshire there are no busses. I guess she just has to be ultra-vigilant when we go to Boston, or when vacationing in cities. 😂
I’ve often heard the ‘hit by a bus” saying, so I took a look at how often it actually happens. It turns out buses are pretty safe. You are much more likely to suffer a fatal car accident.
I actually lost a friend during the Loma Prieta earthquake in the Bay Area in 1989. The double decker freeway he was driving on collapsed, killing him instantly. You just never know…
I am as concerned with “health span” as I am with “lifespan”
Perhaps even more so.
Winston – absolutely. What good is a healthy body if my brain doesn’t go along for the ride. The converse is true, too.
Amen. That’s what matters.
Absolutely. The IRS thinks I have 12 more years, although they are probably underestimating since they don’t distinguish by sex. Two of my grandparents lived well beyond that, so I am still planning for 100, although I am perfectly willing to check out earlier if my health deteriorates.
Numbering Our Days: Ancient Wisdom for Modern Life
Not everyone is a person of faith, but most would agree the Bible is one of the greatest works of literature ever written. Its pages speak often about the brevity of life and the wisdom of living it well.
One striking verse is Psalm 90:12:
“So teach us to number our days, that we may gain a heart of wisdom.”
Other passages echo this theme:
• “Show me, Lord, my life’s end and the number of my days; let me know how fleeting my life is.” (Psalm 39:4)
• “You are a mist that appears for a little while and then vanishes.”(James 4:14)
Whether you read it as sacred scripture or timeless literature, its wisdom still applies: our time is limited—so let’s use it well.
The first “Death Clock” had me outliving my money at 100. We’re good for another 14 years, money wise.
If our LTC insurance company stays solvent, our final years can be free to us by moving into elevated care.