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DURING MY FINAL NINE years with the Coast Guard, I was involved in decisions regarding search-and-rescue operations. We were almost always working with imperfect information. For three of those nine years, I was responsible for all missions in one section of the Great Lakes and, in my last year, I made the final decision on when to suspend search-and-rescue operations in an even larger area.
To lower risk, we often assumed the worst, and threw copious operational resources at the situation.
IN JANUARY 1987, I was an unmarried junior Coast Guard officer just beginning the flight stage of U.S. Navy flying training. I decided to see a financial advisor who’d been recommended by friends.
This wasn’t just any advisor, but rather a retired Air Force lieutenant colonel and fighter pilot. He worked for a firm whose advisors were comprised mostly of retired military officers, and they marketed their services primarily to military officers. If there was anyone I could trust,
Comments
Thanks Jack. I forgot about those pesky dividends. They are helpful.
Post: Investment Versus Speculation
Link to comment from April 4, 2026
I think of gold more as money, as a neutral store of value that can be exchanged later into dollars if need be. Central banks around the world have been accumulating substantial amounts of gold since the beginning of the Ukraine War to serve as a neutral reserve asset, outside the control of the U. S. government and the Swift system, and some entities are using gold to settle transactions making it a form of money, a means of exchange. Foreign central banks now own more value in gold than dollars. That's a huge reversal and it says a great deal about the dollar. Fun fact: from the day we went off the gold standard in August 1971 to present, gold has returned 9.38 % annually, whereas the S&P 500 has returned 8.05%. Other than holding cash in a money market fund, I see no reason to invest in bonds because here's another fun fact: the money supply, M2, has grown approximately 6.5% since August 1971, and in February its rate of growth, annualized, was 11%! In my view, we need our investments to stay ahead of M2 growth, otherwise we are falling behind in terms of purchasing power. Thus, quality equities, gold, and other hard assets may be your best bets going forward. Bonds only give one the illusion of keeping up.
Post: Investment Versus Speculation
Link to comment from April 4, 2026
That's basically what I kept coming up with. I used the mid-level health prediction as we are both non-smokers in good health. But at the end of the day, there are important variables we can never know ultimately making it a personal decision.
Post: Wrapping It Up
Link to comment from March 29, 2026
Great article Ken and glad to hear from you. I, at age 63, with an older spouse, did the same thing with Social Security. No matter how I sliced or diced it, there seemed to be at most a 2% benefit in waiting to maximize our benefits. We're happy with our decision so far.
Post: Wrapping It Up
Link to comment from March 28, 2026
Or days. 😅
Post: Any concern?
Link to comment from March 28, 2026
Thank you Adam, another great article. I learned recently that Einstein had inserted a constant into his general theory of relativity in order to hold the size of the universe static. You see, it was the common wisdom then that the universe was not expanding because that would imply a beginning, and that would then beg the question how it all started, and no one wanted to go there because that led to a discussion of a creator. Einstein wanted no part of that. Well, a mathematician in the 1920s, in Russia, proved that the universe was expanding and Einstein made an effort to publicly humiliate him. When incontrovertible evidence showed the universe was in fact expanding, Einstein changed his thinking accordingly. My point is that Ehrlich couldn't admit he was wrong, about anything it appears, and tremendous harm results from that kind of thinking. We all need to be mentally nimble and be willing to throw away a belief if evidence proves contrary.
Post: Doubt the Forecast
Link to comment from March 28, 2026
I agree with you Adam. I got a 15 yr, 7.25 percent mortgage in late 1994, my first mortgage, during the interest hike. The problem with now is that the low rates since 2008 caused home prices to rise at a rate much greater than incomes and so now we are in a situation where average mortgage rates, and current home prices, keep many from buying their first home. The Fed really did a number on so many.
Post: Any concern?
Link to comment from March 28, 2026
Rick, nice to see you back on Humble Dollar. I always value your insights.
Post: Took Courage
Link to comment from March 22, 2026
I would tend to agree with you Richard. That said, I think the feeling is bad times are just getting started, things will be getting much worse, AI is throwing a wrench into many people's careers, and so all the uncertainty is weighing hard on people.
Post: My Window is Open – Come In
Link to comment from March 22, 2026
When I express my frustrations to one of my sons about things he says, "Dad, make a burger and sit by the pool." He keeps telling me not to worry about things outside my control. Actually, it's quite good advice. 😋
Post: The Bear Market Survival Kit (Pharmaceuticals Not Included)
Link to comment from March 21, 2026