FREE NEWSLETTER
DURING MY FINAL NINE years with the Coast Guard, I was involved in decisions regarding search-and-rescue operations. We were almost always working with imperfect information. For three of those nine years, I was responsible for all missions in one section of the Great Lakes and, in my last year, I made the final decision on when to suspend search-and-rescue operations in an even larger area.
To lower risk, we often assumed the worst, and threw copious operational resources at the situation.
IN JANUARY 1987, I was an unmarried junior Coast Guard officer just beginning the flight stage of U.S. Navy flying training. I decided to see a financial advisor who’d been recommended by friends.
This wasn’t just any advisor, but rather a retired Air Force lieutenant colonel and fighter pilot. He worked for a firm whose advisors were comprised mostly of retired military officers, and they marketed their services primarily to military officers. If there was anyone I could trust,
Comments
I think the sunk cost fallacy is one of the biggest drivers of poor financial decisions that most of us deal with. Like the 2005 Lexus RX330 I bought in 2019. I think I spent almost the purchase price on repairs, a new stereo (it came with a lousy aftermarket system so I put in one with bluetooth phone and Apple CarPlay), and then, last summer, after it was all fixed up with new tires, I gave it to one of my daughter's best friends who badly needed a car. The young lady works hard as a nurse, didn't come from wealth at all, and so could greatly benefit from it. Now, I get pleasure from hearing the car still works great and the young lady is really enjoying it. I don't mean to be blowing my own horn here, just showing how the sunk cost fallacy can really work on a person when you get your emotions involved.
Post: Irrational Financial Choices
Link to comment from January 18, 2026
Try 6.5 to 7% as your inflation rate and see how the portfolio performs. Why? Since we went off the gold standard in 1971, the money supply has grown about 6.6% annually. The Fed announced last month they will begin a program of "Reserve Management Purchases", a euphemism for injecting money into the banks, also known as money printing. M2 began to rise again in Nov 2022, and it's only going to get worse. Over a long retirement, if you assume inflation is whatever the government says, now about 2.7%, you will fall behind. You will end the months with less and less money as your car insurance, home insurance, health insurance, food, etc., all increase more than the government's official rate of inflation. I think the hurdle rate going forward that each investor must earn, just to keep head above water, is about 7%--a return hard to get without a great deal of risk. And with more and more Fed rate cuts looming, retirees, savers, investors will be forced further out on the risk curve, again, just to break even. Retiree and savers, and those just trying to get ahead in life, are going to find the treadmill getting faster and steeper.
Post: Considering a Lost Decade When Retirement Planning
Link to comment from January 17, 2026
I agree with Randy on the settlement fund issue. It's annoying to have to manually buy a money market fund when Vanguard and Fidelity automatically sweep it into a MMF. It's sort of like Schwab wants your money for free.
Post: Schwab or Vanguard?
Link to comment from January 17, 2026
Great article Adam. I have never invested in China in any form. To me, why invest in a Communist country where they can confiscate your property at any time? Besides, there is much fraud there.
Post: China Market Risk
Link to comment from January 17, 2026
For me, the most significant aspect of gold's ascent is the fact that it has eclipsed U. S. Treasury securities as the largest reserve holding by the world's central banks. Basically, what other central banks are saying is that we'd rather hold gold, a neutral reserve asset that can't be debased or seized by the U. S., than those greenbacks--which says a great deal. This year, the U. S. must roll over over $12 trillion in debt, which will most likely be done if the form of short term treasuries. Over time, if central banks keep reducing their Treasury holdings, who is going to buy all our debt? This trend doesn't bode well for the U. S. and I don't see it getting better any time soon.
Post: Gold Isn’t Special
Link to comment from January 10, 2026
48 National Parks. Now that's a real accomplishment Rob. In June of 2024, I managed to make it to Capulon Volcano NM, Great Sand Dunes, Yellowstone, Grand Teton, and Great Basin NPs on a drive from Mobile, AL to Cody, WY, and then on to Oakland, CA. I think Great Basin NP is an underrated gem. The drive across U. S. Hwy 50 (The Loneliest Road in America), through Nevada, is spectacular.
Post: At what age did travel start feeling like work—and what changed your plan?
Link to comment from January 3, 2026
That's a very reasonable approach, Jack.
Post: Who cares if Social Security benefits are cut?
Link to comment from January 1, 2026
I hereby declare, unequivocally, that Humble Dollar is not social media thereby allowing me to continue to enjoy the best financial community available. :)
Post: Social media and our financial security. Move along nothing to see here.
Link to comment from December 28, 2025
I agree. The currency is being debased at about 6% or more, inflation is around 3% (or so the Fed says), so why pay it off?
Post: Mortgage in Retirement
Link to comment from December 28, 2025
What triggered my retirement was Covid. It put a screeching halt to my in person consulting work, and all the work I was offered after that was unappealing (mainly work over Zoom calls). So, I hung it up because I was in a financial position to do so. Fortunately, it's worked out well. I'd like to say I had some grand plan, but I didn't. I've found life works that way in general. One can have grand plans and then all kinds of things can throw a wrench into them. You have to be flexible and if you have lower expectations your glass can stay half full more often.
Post: What Age Did You Retire—and What Made You Decide It Was Time?
Link to comment from December 27, 2025