normr60189

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• I think one aspect of these deals to be concerned about is their circular nature. NVIDIA makes very expensive GPUs which provide the OpenAI computing power. They are making deals with OpenAI, funding the company. OpenAI in turn buys the GPUs. And so on. With about 40% of the S&P 500 now focused on the AI centric companies I mentioned, it would seem to be a house of cards. I think all it will take is for one thread to unravel.

  Post: AI Rally Market Risks

  Link to comment from November 11, 2025

• AI is in its infancy, somewhat similar to the internet in 1999.  Companies overspent wildly in the early internet days. There was a lot of unused fiber optic cable buried everywhere. Today, the players are building data centers at a fast pace.   In 1999 there were companies at the top of the heap which no longer exist. Remember Quantum (QMCO) which returned more than 13,000% in 1999? It is true, there are differences if we compare then, to the seven largest AI companies today. But the similarities include massive financial gambles. We are talking $Trillions.   There are massive assumptions in the bets being placed. Many assume that AI will remain GPU centric. But there are indications that smaller and less power-hungry chips will power many AI applications, and sooner than we expect. It is also assumed that individuals and companies will happily pay for AI services, making AI profitable. It’s a “Build it and they will come” mentality. Forbes recently had an article which asked the question “OpenAI has gone wild with compute deals this year, committing to spend far more than its balance sheet can currently sustain. So who takes the fall if it can’t pay?” Open AI is committed to spending a grand sum total of $1.4 trillion on datacenters in the coming years — an eyebrow-raising figure for a company which claims its annual revenue is projected to reach $20 billion this year. OpenAI has forged deals with Amazon, Oracle, Nvidia, Microsoft, AMD and Broadcom. These are the companies that are on the hook. If there is pain, it will be widespread. In order to come through on its compute commitments, OpenAI’s revenue would have to grow to an estimated $577 billion by 2029, roughly the size of Google’s revenue that same year.  OpenAI might be a spectacular black hole, absorbing the earnings of other companies. Or perhaps it is merely a parasite. Oracle, Nvidia, AMD and Broadcom gained a collective $636 billion in market cap on the days their deals with OpenAI were announced. Amazon gained 4%! Businesses are excited by the prospects of cutting their work forces by 10, 20 or larger percentages. Savings would flow to the bottom line. Who wouldn’t be excited by turning out a product or service at significantly lower cost to the firm? However, this is reminiscent of the robotics and factory automation which began in the 1980s. Overall, workers didn’t fare very well. However, those that provided these systems and services rode the wave and did well. My firm was one of them.

  Post: AI Rally Market Risks

  Link to comment from November 10, 2025

• Some dislike paying any taxes, period. I don't enjoy it, but I view tax as a cost of conducting my personal business of living. I want health care to be available, police, fire, and similar protections. Also clean water and functional roads and electricity, gasoline and other energy sources in abundance. I like well stocked grocery shelves, too and a functional transportation system. I want people to be properly educated so they can contribute in a meaningful way to society. In so doing, they'll also pay taxes. Much of this depends, in part, on government. Now, I do think there is a lot of waste and I do want my taxes spent well accomplishing the things I listed, and more. I don't understand why government employes "non-essential" workers. But that's my small-business real world education perspective. We can pursue happiness, but it isn't guaranteed and short cuts including drugs are a false road.

  Post: IRMAA 2026 Of course it is fair

  Link to comment from November 1, 2025

• There are alternatives. For example, we summer at a campground at the eastern shore of Lake Michigan. We're annuals and we have been doing this since 2014. We travel in a small class B RV and live in a 31 ft. Travel Trailer, parked at that campground. Think of the trailer as a nice cabin with furnace, HVAC, hot & cold running water, a covered deck, etc. We pay an annual fee and for our metered electricity. No taxes, etc. but we do insure the trailer (about $250 per year). If we decide to move we'll probably sell the trailer and set up elsewhere. Most of the sites are annuals as are we. So the neighbors are considerate and friendly.

  Post: Coastal Retirement? Have You Considered These Costs?

  Link to comment from November 1, 2025

• I don't do bitcoin mining, run an AI server farm, nor run a cannabis farm. LOL. At $83 total per month that would be exciting. There is always parasitic drain. This includes the timer for an automated drip watering system, an electric coffee pot with clock, microwave and convection oven, and electronics for the gas stove is always plugged in. Ditto for a 32" TV, a couple of laptops, a printer and the on-demand water heater (natural gas is the primary energy source). There is usually one of the phones or tablet charging. Many of these are auto-off, but there is always some power flowing through the electronics. We have a few LED illuminated fixtures and "night lights" that are always on, too. Prevents stumbling around at 3am. I dropped a few watts by switching my RV coach completely to solar, but there are two trickle battery chargers and an electric golf cart. Yes, when away we do alter the AC temperature setpoints to save electricity. Our average daily KWh usage peaks at about 25 during the warmest months. My bill spiked in June, when the average high temperature was 101F. For the current period the average high was 86F.

  Post: AI and my electric bill

  Link to comment from October 31, 2025

• It varies. We RV for several months of the year. In the RV I’m usually awake with the first rays of dawn. When travelling this way there are frequent time zone changes. Daylight is the most reliable indicator of the beginning of a new day. Each day is a mini-adventure. In 2025 we spent four months and 7,200 miles this way. That excludes short trips with a couple of RV groups. When stationary, I revert to a morning alarm, but usually wake as the sun comes up, no matter what time is set on the alarm. Each night I deal with nephrostomy tube issues, so I awake at 1am and again at 4-5am. Sometimes I get up at 4. I go online, check emails and respond. Then I read news updates and economic and market analysis.  I’ll spend some time on future trip planning and gathering ideas. If we are stationary, I start the coffee machine. G awakes and then we chat while we eat a light breakfast. Then a walk. I am supposed to have a protein heavy diet, so I usually have a second breakfast an hour later. Then I do whatever chores or pick a project from the list, etc. My formal writing gig ended this year, so I’ve gained a couple of hours each day.  There are frequent doctor visits and medical procedures. I have a list of attending “ologists”. Treatment is less frequent, but there is weekly wound care, nephrostomy exchanges and my CT and MRI, once every 4 months is now twice a year. My medical leash has become much longer. This is the eye of the storm, before dialysis begins or kidney failure occurs.   In the southwest, it is prudent to avoid outdoor chores after 11am. So, I pay bills and do indoor repairs when the sun is high.  Temperatures begin to fall after 2pm. A social group meets outdoors at 4pm on Monday, Wednesday and Friday. I usually attend one day a week. Every other Monday at 8:30am there is a resort wide information meeting. We are currently in a resort community and there are a lot of activities. The Halloween doggie parade is at 4pm today and the dance begins at 6. It should be spooktacular. I’m the “sound guy” for a band and with dances beginning I need to boot the sound system, tablet and PC and make sure they are operational and ready for this season. Every Sunday morning there is a small group breakfast.  I do need to use a calendar to keep all of this straight and avoid dropping anything out!

  Post: What does your daily schedule look like?

  Link to comment from October 31, 2025

• This is a symptom of what I suspect is a larger problem. Some feel disenfranchised while others see no immediate benefit from the taxes paid. Some hate the tax man, period. Some have the position that if it isn't of immediate, personal benefit it shouldn't exist. Here’s an example of the latter. I live in a walled, gated community with a human at a controlled entry. A while back there was a political conversation about the wall on our southern border which is about 50 miles distant. There were those pro and con. I suggested that in fairness and for consistency our community should not have a wall or security. That was not received well, by anyone! Here's another example. I lived in the southeast for a time. There were large, unincorporated areas and “fire protection districts”. Each business or home owner was supposed to pay a fee to the district to support the fire department. But enforcement was difficult and owners figured it out, so some rolled the dice and didn’t pay.  One day, I was driving down the road and I was amazed to see firefighters pouring water on a building, while the one next door, which was ablaze was ignored. I enquired about this. The owner of the building that was being attended to and protected had paid the fee. The other did not.  A few days later as I passed by, I noticed that one building was burned to the ground, the other next door was pristine. There was, of course, a discussion about this and a few declared how unfair it was. However, I was also told that after that policy was instituted the collections increased dramatically, and such fires were an effective advertisement. I currently live in a similar area. Pay the annual fee and ambulance and fire is included. If you don’t, ambulance service and fire abatement is carte blanch and expensive. For those who aren't enrolled, each vehicle and fireman or ambulance attendant is billed. Fires aren’t ignored, but are costly for scofflaw owners.  This is considered to be “unfair” by some.

  Post: Seniors are a frustrating lot. Here’s why…IMO

  Link to comment from October 31, 2025

• That's a good yarn. Perhaps you should call it "The nightmare on Main Street". "Less Than Half Of Americans Are On Track To Maintain Their Current Lifestyles In Retirement, Vanguard Says..... Vanguard expects that this group of Americans won't be able to maintain their current lifestyles in retirement. Vanguard estimates that only 40% of baby boomers are on track for retirement" - October 2025. Note that Boomers are in the age group 61 to 79 years old and that fewer than half are prepared for retirement. In 2006 I wrote a similar piece. It extolled investors to review their retirement plans and be wary of current market conditions. "Or, their retirement may be a life of rice and beans."

  Post: A Nightmare on Destitution Street

  Link to comment from October 31, 2025

• Social media is a cesspool. I administer two groups, each with a specific focus. I periodically boot people who break the rules. “No politics” is one, and that includes championing the march in vogue (there is always a protest). My policy is “zero tolerance”. All posts are pre-approved. Make a mistake and your post is rejected and you are gone.  The groups are small (about 1800 members) and angry individuals attempt to Messenger me (I don’t use it).  1) I never respond and 2) I don’t care what people think.  As we used to say, it is important to consider the source.   Allegedly about 26% of Americans have mental disorders (John Hopkins). That’s 57 million U.S. adults, and 9.5% are depressive. I’ve seen statistics that 3-5% are certifiably insane and some are clearly dangerous.  I am of the opinion that attempting to carry on a dialogue with certain individuals is a pointless waste of time.

  Post: Seniors are a frustrating lot. Here’s why…IMO

  Link to comment from October 30, 2025

• I suppose there are a few factors to consider. Risk tolerance and capacity as well as age. My spouse is 10 years younger and theoretically should live longer. She has 5 years before she is required to take RMDs.  I am drawing from my retirement savings, as required. All things considered my portfolio should be more conservative than hers, if for no other reason than to protect 5-7 years of withdrawals.  We each have Roth IRAs as well as traditional IRAs. For allocation purposes I evaluate the sum of each of our portfolios. We also look at our portfolios individually and combined (Roth + Trad + brokerage) to determine the overall allocation. We have a sum excluded from our portfolios. That’s our short-term and emergency cash.  My portfolio throws off sufficient cash that I haven’t had to sell stocks for 5 years. I did purchase stock in 2024 and I do use excess dividends to purchase stocks. Our combined portfolios are 55% stocks. My portfolio is 53% stocks and my spouse is 58% stocks.  The styles are “core” and according to Morningstar each of our portfolios “stock exposure is spread evenly across the market and includes a good mix of small, medium, and large companies, as well as a fairly even mix of conservatively priced value stocks and high-flying growth stocks:” Both portfolios are 14% foreign stocks (25% of the stock portion). Her stock portion is about 16% aggressive growth while mine is 7.2%. Hers is 6% speculative growth and mine is 2% speculative growth. I think the difference in growth stocks is the primary reason her stock portfolio has recently outperformed mine, on an annual percentage basis.    I use the Morningstar X-ray tool to evaluate the portfolios. It provides a uniform basis.  I ask my spouse from time to time how she feels about her allocation and risk factors and she is fine with it. Considering her portfolio horizon of perhaps 30 years I concur.  My stock portfolio is about 42% value, 29% core and 30% growth. I’m okay with that.  If the time comes that I do think a change is necessary, I’ll evaluate each of the Roths and traditional IRAs and make a decision for each. 

  Post: How do Couples Rebalance with Multiple Accounts

  Link to comment from October 30, 2025