Mike Zaccardi

WHEN I WAS IN COLLEGE, I thought I had investing all figured out. I’d taken a handful of finance and portfolio management courses, I’d allocated real money for the University of North Florida’s student-managed fund, and I’d researched individual stocks, mutual funds, exchange-traded funds and even options.
But my confidence was crushed by a year of unsuccessful options trading when I was age 20. Nonetheless, through my 20s and into my 30s, I remained optimistic that I could earn handsome long-run returns by overweighting a few investment factors—such as smaller companies and value stocks—and by having plenty of foreign stock exposure.

I GOT CAUGHT UP IN some weird investment fads during the recent era of 0% interest rates. With cash investments and bonds yielding almost nothing, I instead sought to pad my investment returns by opening new brokerage accounts to snag promotion cash, and by dabbling in digital currencies and newfangled alternative investments.
Result? I ended up with far too many financial accounts—and it became a burden to keep track of everything. Just a year ago,

I STEPPED TO THE podium for the first time in more than three years. My presentation skills were perhaps a bit rusty, but I jumped at the opportunity earlier this month to speak at my former employer’s annual symposium. It felt great to see so many familiar and friendly faces, including old teammates, workplace acquaintances and former clients. It was also no big secret that I was curious about an open position at the company.

WHAT A DIFFERENCE a rally makes. So far this year, the S&P 500 is up more than 6%. Not bad considering the doom and gloom from Wall Street forecasters at the end of 2022. Recall how strategists in early December were projecting large-cap U.S. stocks to finish 2023 in the red. Naturally, the market did the opposite of what most experts were thinking.
Stocks soared to jumpstart the new year. Many regions notched their best January in decades.

WALL STREET WAS stunned Friday morning by the strength of the jobs market. While technology company layoffs have lately hijacked the fear-mongering media’s narrative, the truth is that the employment picture is quite strong.
With a 517,000 gain in net employment last month, along with ebbing wage growth, the “soft landing” crowd is one big step closer to winning the battle against the recession prognosticators. True, January’s jobs jolt is merely one data point.

JUST LIKE THAT, growth stocks are back in vogue. Vanguard Growth ETF (symbol: VUG) has outpaced Vanguard Value ETF (VTV) by more than nine percentage points over the past three weeks. That gap in favor of “risk-on,” meaning mainly technology shares, is the biggest since those two exchange-traded funds were created some 19 years ago.
What gives? Weren’t all the strategists proclaiming a new era of value investing? It still seems that way based on what you hear on financial TV and read in investment magazines.

THE MARKET IS NOW in the heart of the corporate-earnings reporting season. Traders will soon be digesting big tech’s fourth-quarter profits, as well as a Federal Reserve meeting and monthly jobs data. That’s a lot to take in. Volatility must be high with so much hanging on the line, right? Wrong.
The Volatility Index, or VIX, has dropped significantly, nearing levels last seen during 2021’s bull market. At less than 20, the VIX—known as Wall Street’s “fear gauge”—implies a somewhat tame 30-day S&P 500 price change of less than 6%.

I BEGAN WRITING for HumbleDollar in early 2020. As a market junkie, but one who’s also deeply curious about personal finance, I was already a regular reader of the site.
Since then, I’ve contributed roughly 140 pieces. My articles and blog posts often focus on the financial markets and long-term investing, with a nod toward the financial independence movement. What do my 10 favorite posts have in common? They’re mostly focused on macro trends and my own financial journey.

LAST FRIDAY’S U.S. JOBS report was just what the doctor ordered. While much attention gets paid to the headline change in employment—which was a solid 223,000 gain in December—the bullish news was in the report’s details.
Average hourly earnings, a key measure of wage growth, were up 4.6% from a year ago, significantly less than the 5% consensus expectation. Weekly hours worked were also a smidgen less than forecasted—another “cool” reading on the inflation front.

THERE ARE MANY WAYS to gauge whether individual stocks and the overall market are expensive. But which valuation metric should you rely on?
The fact is, you can find metrics to buttress any market narrative you want to believe. Such confirmation bias can prompt investors to make big changes to their mix of stocks and more conservative investments—sometimes with disastrous results.
As a market analyst, writer and former university finance instructor, I’m familiar with a host of valuation tools.

FEELING DESPONDENT about your 2022 investment returns? Yes, it’s been a grueling year for almost all stock and bond investors. But some folks have been hit far harder than others.
In the bounce back from 2020’s coronavirus market crash, near-zero-percent interest rates, coupled with consumers flush with cash, made for pockets of irrational exuberance. High-risk growth stocks—like those owned by Cathie Wood’s ARK Innovation ETF (symbol: ARKK)—captured the imaginations of Wall Street and Main Street alike.

LAST WEEK MIGHT HAVE been the moment we flipped from inflation worries to recession risks. On Tuesday, November’s inflation report turned out to be cooler than economists expected. Stocks initially soared, only to sell off toward the end of the day in anticipation of Wednesday’s news. Sure enough, the next day, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delivered not only a 0.5-percentage-point interest rate increase, but also a stern message in his press conference afterward.

ARE YOU TRAVELING for the holidays? There’s good news for drivers. Average retail pump prices have dropped below $3.30 a gallon, with many states seeing prices under $3. This positive development for consumers—including those off to grandma’s house this season—comes as wholesale gasoline futures fall to their lowest level in a year.
Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in early 2022, and just in time for the busy U.S. summer driving season, gas prices notched all-time highs near $5 per gallon.

DO YOU THINK differently about money today compared to a year ago?
Cast your mind back 12 months. Interest rates were near record lows, cryptocurrencies were surging and stocks were hitting new highs day after day. Checking your investment account balance was an instant dopamine hit. Ditto for homeowners, who could get a sense for their home’s skyrocketing value by perusing the local listings.
Last year was also a time when many Americans called it quits from the nine-to-five grind.

I HAVE CHEERY investment news: Most Wall Street strategists are bearish on stocks. Last week, Bloomberg reported that 2023’s projected change in the S&P 500 by the best and brightest forecasters is negative. That hasn’t happened since at least 1999. Consider today’s bleak consensus to be a contrarian indicator. It could set the bar low enough for a decent 2023.
If you flip on financial TV or peruse investment magazines at this time of year,

THE FTX FALLOUT IS something to behold. It’s said that the now-bankrupt cryptocurrency exchange has liabilities that could end up being twice what Enron owed when it collapsed more than two decades ago. The hubris of Sam Bankman-Fried (also known as SBF), founder of FTX, is something all investors can learn from.
It was just a few months ago that Bankman-Fried was dubbed the next Warren Buffett and 2022’s version of the late 19th and early 20th century financier J.P.

I’M 34 GOING ON 74. Like an old man set in his ways, I routinely prepare my own meals and rarely go out to eat. But last week, I shook things up by scarfing down some ribs at a nearby outdoor mall. I couldn’t help but notice all of the “now hiring” signs.
It’s a far cry from when I ventured to the same mall in March and April 2020. Do you remember that feeling—the uncertainty and anxiety about what life was going to look like amid the height of the pandemic?

VALUE STOCKS ARE having quite the year—at least relative to growth shares. This past week underscored that trend, with the value-oriented Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) rising every day. Barring a big drop today, October will mark the index’s best monthly performance since 1976.
Even as the Dow rallied 5.7% last week, the growth-heavy Nasdaq Composite index rose just 2.2%. For the year, the Nasdaq is down 29%, versus less than 10% for the Dow.

AS INFLATION continues to run hot, wage gains for the bottom quartile of income earners are almost keeping pace with consumer prices. Meanwhile, checking account balances for this group remain more than 50% above pre-pandemic levels.
Is everything A-okay? Of course not. Still, I’d argue that many Americans have positioned themselves well to weather an economic downturn. Another sign: Average credit scores are much improved from, say, the mid-2000s, when families were loading up on debt and speculators were snatching up houses only to flip them months later.

LAST WEEK’S INFLATION report did the bulls no favors. The latest reading on the Consumer Price Index showed a larger-than-expected September rise, mostly due to housing data, which tend to respond slowly to higher interest rates. Then came Friday’s University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey, which showed an unexpected jump in inflation expectations over the next year and next five years. Result: Bond yields climbed and stocks finished the week lower.
But there’s also good news: Among economists,

THERE’S AN INVESTOR sentiment chart that gets dusted off and passed around after long periods of market malaise. Using the chart, active investors aim to identify when people have given up on stocks, so they can buy shares at the point of maximum pessimism.
Looking back, it appears that late 2021 marked the chart’s “euphoria” phase, and we’ve since been descending through the stages that follow—anxiety, denial, fear and so on. Which phase are we currently in?

I ADVISED LAST OCTOBER that loading up on holiday gifts ahead of the main shopping season probably made sense, given problems with the supply chain. Foreign manufacturers were struggling to produce enough goods, plus many items were stuck in ships anchored off the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, California. Parents across the country, flush with cash, were frantic about getting their kids the latest hot toys.
What a difference a year makes.

SERIES I SAVINGS bonds might be the best-performing investment in folks’ portfolios this year. With steep losses in both the stock and bond markets, I bond’s 9.62% current yield looks like a home run. But the playing field could be shifting.
How so? Yields on the federal government’s other inflation-linked bond—Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS)—are up sharply in 2022. Result: TIPS aren’t such a bad buy today and perhaps better than Series I savings bonds.

WHILE THE S&P 500’s price-earnings (P/E) ratio has little predictive power if you look at returns over the next 12 months, it’s more important if you stretch out your time horizon to five years and beyond. What you pay has a significant impact on your likely long-run return—and that should be comforting for today’s buyers.
Recently, WisdomTree Global Chief Investment Officer Jeremy Schwartz shared a compelling graphic showing P/E ratios for dozens of U.S.

MIDTERM ELECTIONS are less than two months away. The political landscape is uncertain and always fraught with heated opinions—but I won’t dive into that end of the pool. Instead, consider how the stock market might perform in the coming months and into 2023.
While technical analysis—using past price data to infer future prices—is controversial and dismissed by many fundamental investors, it’s hard to ignore a persistent bullish pattern that could soon repeat. Stock market history tells us that,

THE S&P 500’S RETURN so far in 2022, when compared to the same year-to-date stretch for previous years, ranks as the fourth worst since 1928. One result: Stocks look quite cheap. The market’s price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple has retreated as share prices have fallen while corporate earnings have continued to grow.
One chart in particular caught my eye last week. Each month, I peruse J.P. Morgan Asset Management’s Guide to the Markets.

FEDERAL RESERVE CHAIR Jerome Powell, speaking last Friday at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, said that bringing down inflation will mean “some pain” for households. But what sort of pain are we talking about?
Powell and the rest of the Fed members are hoping to create “tight conditions.” That isn’t some opaque description of the economy and financial markets. Instead, the term has four specific components that help dictate Fed policy.

The U.S.

ARE YOU READY FOR some football? Autumn is just around the corner and, if you’re like me, you can’t wait for those lazy Sunday afternoons kicking back and watching the gridiron. What about some munchies as you enjoy the on-field action? While the cost of everything food-related seems to be skyrocketing, there’s encouraging news for one popular football snack.
According to data from Bloomberg, wholesale chicken wing prices are down some 60% from a year ago.

ONE OF MY FAVORITE indicators right now is the ICE BofAML MOVE Index. Sound like trading jargon? Think of it as comparable to the VIX, except—instead of measuring stock market volatility—it does the same for bonds. Today, it’s indicating improving confidence in what’s lately been a very turbulent bond market.
MOVE is high when there are big daily swings in bond market interest rates. That’s what we’ve seen in 2022 as traders grapple with fast-changing economic data.

RECESSION FEARS are fading. Second-quarter corporate profits have been better than expected. Some recent economic data show key barometers in growth mode, even as the latest GDP report confirmed a second consecutive quarter of economic contraction. Indeed, this past Friday’s hot employment report cooled the debate over whether we’re in a recession.
The pandemic upended so many facets of life and business, and we’re still feeling the effects today, as evidenced by odd swings in what are often stable economic numbers.

MONEY MARKET YIELDS are no longer zero. Far from it. With the Federal Reserve raising short-term interest rates by another 0.75 percentage point last week, investors can now park their savings in a safe money-market mutual fund and earn more than 2%.
If you look at Vanguard Federal Money Market Fund (symbol: VFMXX), you won’t see a seven-day SEC yield that’s that high—yet. But give it a few days. Right before the Fed’s move last week,

INFLATION IS TAKING its toll on Americans’ view of the economy. But things could be a lot worse. Exhibit A: Europe.
Last week, the U.K. reported its inflation rate had surged to a four-decade high of 9.4%. June’s reading was a significant bump up from May’s 9.1%. Even higher inflation is expected as year-end approaches, with the Bank of England seeing annual inflation hitting 11%, according to The Wall Street Journal.
In fact,

THE RESEARCH TEAM at Bank of America put out a pair of seemingly contradictory investment notes last week. On the bullish side, the folks there pointed to extremely cheap valuations in the small-cap space. But a few days later, the economics department rocked Wall Street with a bearish forecast calling for five consecutive quarters of negative real U.S. GDP growth.
I chuckled at the sequencing: It’s often said the stock market leads the economy by about six months,

IF YOU THINK STOCKS have fallen fast this year, check out the collapse in the National Association of Realtors’ housing affordability index. The index tracks how financially easy it is for the typical family to buy a house with a conventional 30-year mortgage.
May’s reading of 102.5 is down sharply from the 154.4 recorded in December 2021 and it’s just a whisker away from the lowest levels seen in the past four decades. For those of us in the southern U.S.,

THE LATEST ESTIMATE for first-quarter GDP growth was issued by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) on Wednesday morning. While not market-moving news, it revealed that the economy shrank at an annualized rate of 1.6%, a tad worse than market expectations. The most surprising part of the revised estimate was the downward adjustment in personal consumption. Along with recent credit- and debit-card spending data, as well as comments from a few consumer goods companies,

STOCK INVESTORS are hanging tough. Bond investors? Not so much.
Citing flow of funds data from EPFR, Bank of America Global Research says investors collectively purchased $195 billion of stocks this year through June 22. The implication: People aren’t panicking. That’s great news, and it supports the narrative that today’s stock investors are less bullied by market volatility.
It’s a different story in the bond market, where we’ve seen so-called capitulation. Bank of America notes that $193 billion of bonds have been sold this year by investors.

MORE WEALTH HAS been lost in this year’s stock and bond market decline than in any previous downturn, according to research firm Bespoke Investments. And, no, that doesn’t include the $2 trillion of crypto value that’s gone up in smoke.
A counterpoint to this jarring reality: Folks today are wealthier than during previous bear markets. Goldman Sachs reports that U.S. household net worth as a percentage of disposable personal income remains sharply above pre-pandemic levels.

CONSUMERS’ MOOD HAS never been worse—at least according to the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. The monthly survey, released last Friday morning, paralleled the worse-than-expected Consumer Price Index report. May’s inflation reading notched a fresh four-decade high as Americans—and the rest of the world—grapple with soaring food and energy costs. The issue is front and center, and we all feel it every day.
The hits keep on coming. This weekend, AAA confirmed a grim milestone: The average price of a gallon of regular gas topped $5.

GAS PRICES TOOK another step higher last week—troubling news for the millions of families planning their summer vacations.
It’s already shaping up as a big travel year. An estimated 39.2 million folks hit the road or took a flight over the Memorial Day weekend, according to AAA, up 8.3% from last year. GasBuddy data show the average price for a gallon of regular unleaded was $4.60 over the holiday weekend. Steep? By July 4,

INVESTING FOR education costs has never been more popular, as evidenced by recent Morningstar data. The research company found that 2021 was a record-breaking year for assets in 529 college savings plans. At almost $500 billion, total investments are up nearly fourfold over the past decade.
A big reason is the tax advantages—investments grow tax-free if they’re used for qualifying education expenses—plus 529 accounts are treated relatively leniently under the college financial-aid formulas. You can learn more about the accounts from other authors who have real life experience saving through 529 plans.

BEAR MARKET territory. On Friday, that phrase was all over the “financial pornography” channel, as commentator Carl Richards labels it. During trading, the S&P 500 finally dropped 20% from its early January all-time closing high. In truth, that number alone doesn’t mean much. Consider that stocks in both 2011 and late 2018 briefly encroached on 20% before bouncing back in a big way.
The media was ready last week to go with all the flashing banners and alerts.

AMID THIS YEAR’S market wreckage, perhaps the most disappointing performers have been target-date retirement funds (TDFs).
Many 401(k) investors are familiar with these products. Just one of these funds can be used throughout your investment lifetime, as it automatically shifts from a stock-heavy portfolio in the decades leading up to the targeted retirement date to owning more bonds in the years immediately before and after the target year. Normally, performance is pretty steady for TDFs close to their target date,

WHEN I STUDIED FOR the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) exams, I snagged extra prep time by listening to textbooks while commuting. As boring as that sounds, it helped me absorb the dry curriculum—and it made listening to financial information part of my daily routine.
While I no longer commute—or even own a car—I continue to plug in my earphones to catch up on the latest investment insights, often during my afternoon walks. Here are my eight favorite podcasts:

The Long View.

HAS THE ECONOMY reached peak inflation? That might be the biggest question in financial markets right now. Economists at several Wall Street firms, including Goldman Sachs and Bank of America, say the highest pace of consumer price increases may now be in the rearview mirror.
Inflation is typically measured as a percent change from a year ago. From here, prices for goods and services may still go up, but at a slower pace. That’s the hope.

EVERY MARKET DECLINE is different, but all of them can feel unnerving, even for the most steadfast of investors. Spooked by 2022’s financial market turmoil? There’s good news: Stock and bond values today look much more compelling than at the turn of the year.
Thanks to 2022’s 14% drop, the S&P 500 now trades below its five-year average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, based on expected profits. On top of that, corporate earnings rose impressively in this year’s first quarter.

THE S&P 500 IS DOWN 10% so far this year—but the pain hasn’t been dished out evenly. Value and steady dividend-paying stocks are about flat for 2022, while technology companies and speculative small-cap stocks have suffered mightily. Money has fled the market’s unprofitable glamor companies and flocked to old-fashioned cash flow generators.
Just how bad has the drubbing been among formerly hot growth names? Look no further than Cathie Wood’s ARK Innovation ETF (symbol: ARKK).

EXPERIENCED INVESTORS know that the stock market and the economy sometimes diverge. Early 2020 offered a stark example: Even as the economy was still contracting rapidly, stocks started bouncing back.
But right now, many areas of the stock market are doing about what you’d expect. After all the efforts by the Federal Reserve and Congress to prop up the economy over the past two years, rising inflation is front and center, along with rising interest rates. 

IN THE MARKET FOR a home loan? Chances are, you aren’t pleased. Amid soaring real estate prices and intense demand, mortgage rates have climbed above the psychologically important 5% threshold. Mortgage News Daily published its rates update on Friday afternoon, and the figures weren’t pretty for prospective borrowers. The 5.06% average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is close to the highest mark since late 2008.
Meanwhile, over the past 12 months, home prices are up 19.2%,

INVESTORS ENDURED a lot in the first quarter, including rising interest rates, high inflation, fears about a recession and news of war. But it’s important not to get caught up in the scary headlines. Consider COVID-19. Not so long ago, it dominated the news, but now it’s hardly discussed because the situation is much improved.
No doubt today’s fears will also abate. Indeed, despite 2022’s dire news, stocks staged an impressive recovery toward the end of the first quarter.

WHEN I TAUGHT AT the University of North Florida, I always sought to arm my finance students with the best tools of the trade. College textbooks are notoriously expensive, so I aimed to provide some great free resources. Few things get me more pumped than when I come across an impressive financial website—one that doesn’t charge.
One of the most frequent questions from students: What sites do I visit every day? I would often share stories in class about various writing assignments and investment projects I was working on,

IT’S BEEN A STUNNING quarter for the bond market. According to Bloomberg, short-term interest rates have seen their biggest jump since 1984, as measured by the yield on two-year Treasury notes, which now stands at around 2.3%.
The rise this time around seems especially sharp, considering how low yields were at the start of 2022. Back in the early 1980s, the two-year Treasury yielded north of 10%, versus barely above 0% at times last year.

AS INTEREST RATES head higher, where should bond investors turn?
A lot of ink has been devoted to Series I savings bonds—for good reason. The initial yield, which applies to bonds bought through April, is north of 7%. Come May 1, it might go even higher if the inflation rate continues to climb. The recent energy price surge wasn’t fully reflected in February’s Consumer Price Index, so the coming months’ reports could be even more alarming.

INDEX FUND INVESTORS can take a victory lap each time the Standard & Poor’s Index Versus Active (SPIVA) scorecard is published. The results, while they don’t change much, underscore how futile it is to try to pick winning fund managers. The year-end 2021 report concludes what so many of us already know. Still, it’s helpful to be reminded, so we don’t get lured in by the latest hot investment narrative.
The 2021 numbers reveal a dreadful year for investment managers.

ENERGY PRICES ARE NOT a big deal—or, at least, not as huge as everyone, including the financial media, make them out to be. The average cost of a gallon of gas is around $4.30 right now, according to AAA. That’s high compared to what we’re used to seeing during the past eight years. But I recall the 2011 through early 2014 period, when crude oil was well over $100 per barrel. Back then, some of us were also paying close to $4 at the pump.

JUST HOW ROUGH HAS 2022 been for retirees? Vanguard Target Retirement Income Fund (symbol: VTINX) is down nearly 6% so far this year. Barring a strong comeback, this could be among the lousiest years for this conservatively positioned mutual fund since its October 2003 inception.
The pandemic led to a rash of retirements. Soaring stock prices, booming real estate values and flexible work arrangements helped change the employment landscape. Many Americans finally called it quits in recent months.

FOREIGN STOCKS suffered big losses last week. Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets ETF (symbol: VEA) dropped 6.2% as fears about Russia’s aggression came to a head. Losses were most sharp in Europe—iShares MSCI Eurozone ETF (EZU) plunged 13.3%. For the year, the U.S. stock market is now slightly ahead of international stocks.
Investors often question whether they should own non-U.S. stocks. The common logic—flawed in my opinion—is that domestic firms offer enough foreign exposure because many are multinational businesses.

EVERYBODY SEEMS to hate bonds right now. Can you blame them? Inflation is at a four-decade high, the Federal Reserve is sure to hike short-term interest rates two weeks from Wednesday, and geopolitical jitters make owning high-yield bonds all the riskier. On top of that, returns have been awful since the start of 2021.
But maybe we should take a contrarian approach. Almost everybody should own at least some bonds. Yields have improved significantly.

A FRIEND TEXTED ME yesterday. He wanted my thoughts on putting cash to work given the big stock market decline over the past few weeks. I took my usual approach, saying it’s always a good time to make retirement contributions, and that he should go ahead and swoop in. That was when the S&P 500 was down roughly 2% in the morning. We texted again in the afternoon before the closing bell—and after the market had rallied big.

NEW YEAR, NEW TRENDS. That theme continues to play out. So far in 2022, the U.S. stock market, as measured by Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (symbol: VTI), is down 9.1%. Brighter conditions are found overseas, despite today’s geopolitical risks. Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets ETF (VEA) is down just 4.3% year-to-date, while Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF (VWO) is up 0.5%.
A sore spot for international investors has been small-cap stocks. Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-U.S.

CATHIE WOOD’S ARK Innovation ETF was the toast of the investing town in 2020 and early 2021. The star portfolio manager picked one winning stock after another—stocks that benefited as much of the world shifted to work-from-anywhere.
Like so many other hot funds, her time in the sun didn’t last. After Wood’s flagship ARK fund returned more than 150% in 2020, plus another 25% to start 2021, the bubble finally popped last February. The peak-to-trough decline was 57.6% through Jan.

TAX SEASON IS HERE. You’ve probably received your W-2 and, if they haven’t arrived already, your investment tax forms may be just days away. If you’re like me, your email inbox has been inundated with tax-filing services pitching their latest deal. I’m no expert on which tax-prep provider is best, but each year I check this page for reviews of the major sites.
I have two other tips that might save you a few bucks.

THERE WAS MUCH hoopla last week about high inflation, surging interest rates and geopolitical turmoil. Sure, these are important macro conditions. Still, stocks took things in stride. If you only pay attention to once-highflying growth companies, especially tech stocks, the market appears dire. Broaden your perspective, though, and things haven’t been all that terrible of late.
Yes, the S&P 500 lost 1.8% last week. Small-caps, however, were up 1.5%. Foreign shares were about unchanged.

JUST HOW CRAZY WERE some of last week’s market moves? The Wall Street Journal detailed how Amazon.com (symbol: AMZN) recorded the biggest-ever one-day market cap gain in stock market history. The largest company in the consumer discretionary sector was valued $191.3 billion higher after posting better-than-expected earnings Thursday evening.
Amazon’s monster move came just a day after Meta Platforms (FB) notched the single-biggest market cap decrease in market history. More widely known as Facebook,

LAST AUGUST, I wrote about the retention bonuses I scored by simply initiating a transfer of assets from one brokerage firm to another. Back then, I said I’d wait six months and then try again to capture this free money.
This time around, one broker offered me a promotion simply to stay put, but two others wouldn’t. I did some quick Google searches and found offers elsewhere, so I initiated the transfers and collected those bonuses.

HOME AFFORDABILITY is finally taking a hit now that mortgage rates have ticked higher. Last May, I wrote that property prices were through the roof but homes were still affordable. The reason: Historically low borrowing rates, coupled with record high median family income, had offset robust home prices.
The National Association of Realtors’ latest figures show housing affordability rivals that of last May. But the figures don’t yet reflect higher interest rates. Freddie Mac posts the latest set of mortgage rates each Thursday.

THE S&P 500 WAS UP 0.8% last week. It was a wild ride, with the Volatility Index climbing to almost 40—the highest level in 15 months—as investors grappled with the threat of rising interest rates. The Federal Reserve is steadfast in its plans to aggressively raise short-term interest rates. Bank of America Global Research was the buzz of Wall Street on Friday morning, with its economic team saying it now expects the Fed to hike rates by a quarter-point at all seven remaining meetings this year.

THE S&P 500 JUST HAD its worst week since March 2020’s COVID-19 crash. Ironically, the decline happened as coronavirus cases were finally dropping after the December surge. Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (symbol: VOO) fell 5.7%, while Vanguard Small-Cap ETF (VB) lost 7.3%.
Returns were not as bad overseas. Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-U.S. ETF (VEU) dropped 3.1%. Coming as a surprise to some index fund investors, Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF (VWO) is actually positive so far in 2022.

QUICK FINANCIAL scores can be thrilling. The idea of plopping down a few bucks to hit it big with a lottery ticket or the roulette wheel is alluring to many. Even folks who know the odds are stacked in favor of the house engage in these gambles.
That brings me to a recent M1 Finance survey of more than 2,000 investors. A particularly sobering stat involved alternative assets: 73% of those who described their situation as “struggling to survive financially” planned to invest in some form of alternative asset,

LAST WEEK SAW additional gains for value stocks, while shares of once highflying growth companies continued to struggle. Meanwhile, foreign markets again rallied. Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-U.S. ETF (symbol: VEU) rose more than 1% last week, even as Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI) slipped 0.5%.
Let’s further unpack these trends.
The Nasdaq Composite has endured its worst start to a year since 2009. At the same time, blue chip stocks and some of last year’s losers are suddenly in favor.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES have come under selling pressure over the past few months. That might have some readers thinking about buying the dip in, say, bitcoin or ethereum. Those two cryptos, the largest by market capitalization, are off more than 30% from their all-time highs.
I’ve been dabbling in digital assets, but not in the way you might imagine. I put about 3% of my portfolio into stablecoins. Stablecoins differ from the well-known cryptocurrencies we often hear about.

SELLING COVERED calls can sound like a winning investment strategy, especially to yield-hungry investors frustrated by today’s low interest rates. Wouldn’t you know it? There are exchange-traded funds (ETFs) designed to mimic the strategy.
For background, covered calls are a yield-enhancement play that involve selling call options against stocks that you own. The call option gives you extra income, but—during the life of the option—your gains are capped at the call option’s strike price.

ARE LONG-SUFFERING value investors and those with a large allocation to foreign stocks finally about to get some relief? The new year has seen significant relative strength by both areas of the market. Meanwhile, after peaking in the first half of 2021, highflying small- and mid-cap growth companies continue to get hammered. Mega-cap tech shares have also lately succumbed to selling pressure.
What’s worked thus far in 2022 are the boring old large-cap blue chip names.

WHEN I WAS WORKING fulltime, my 401(k) and health savings account contributions were automatically pulled from my biweekly paycheck and dumped into the respective accounts. But when I left the nine-to-five world a year ago, the onus fell on me to invest the profits from my small business. I sent off money to some low-cost funds a few times during 2021, but it wasn’t as regular as it should have been.
My resolution: Make my taxable account investing more automated this year.

TARGET-DATE FUNDS from Vanguard Group are, I believe, fantastic products. My first investment was a $3,000 purchase of Vanguard Target Date 2045 Fund (symbol: VTIVX) in late December 2005, shortly after I turned age 18. That was also my first Roth IRA contribution.
A target-date fund is an off-the-shelf globally diversified portfolio that automatically becomes more conservative over time. You don’t have to do any fiddling with the allocation, such as rebalancing or adjusting down your portfolio’s risk level.

DECEMBER WAS a month to remember for the stock market. The S&P 500 returned 4.5%, while small caps were up a slightly weaker 3.4%. Foreign stocks rallied 3.7%, but emerging markets continued to lag, eking out a 1.5% return.
It was a stellar year for the bulls. The U.S. stock market posted a 25.7% return, as measured by Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (symbol: VTI). Vanguard Small-Cap ETF (VB) started the year hot, handily beating large-company stocks,

YOU MIGHT ASK, “What makes an exchange-traded fund the best?” While it’s hard to say for sure which are the right funds to own, it’s often easy to spot a fund that should be tossed to the curb.
Take the iShares suite of exchange-traded index funds (ETFs). Did you know iShares offers two nearly identical emerging markets funds, iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (symbol: EEM) and iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (IEMG)? The only material difference is what you pay.

NO DOUBT ABOUT IT, cryptocurrencies have had a raucous 2021. From bitcoin and ether’s fast start in January, to the rise of dogecoin in April and then the shiba-inu October shenanigans, folks owning seemingly any digital currency likely experienced big gains if they were owners since early 2021.
What if folks got in later in the year? Despite being all over the financial press and having inked all sorts of sponsorship deals—including the naming rights to what was once the Staples Center in Los Angeles—total crypto market cap today is pretty much unchanged from the peaks reached in May and September,

ALDI IS A POPULAR grocery store chain with a cult-like following in some parts of the country. This family-owned business is based in Germany but currently expanding in the U.S. I always knew that frugal shoppers loved Aldi.
Still, I was surprised to learn just how inexpensive the company’s products are. According to a recent Bank of America Global Research study of the Nashville area, Walmart has the cheapest prices among conventional, mass and specialty grocers,

THE HOLIDAYS MARK a festive period for stock market bulls. The final two weeks of the year and the first several trading sessions of January have historically seen unusually strong gains for the S&P 500 stocks, according to research from Bank of America. Since 1928, the final 10 trading days of December have averaged gains of 1.19% and the first 10 sessions of January have returned 0.72%.
Why has the S&P 500 performed well during this stretch?

GIFT CARDS ARE BIG business. More than $28 billion is expected to be spent on gift cards this holiday season, with an average value of almost $50 per card, according to the National Retail Federation’s winter holidays report. This season, consumers want gift cards above all else, says the survey, and restaurants are the most popular category.
I’ve changed my mind about gift cards. I used to think they were a ridiculous way to show appreciation.

NATIXIS INVESTMENT Managers just released its 2022 institutional investors’ outlook. The firm surveyed 500 portfolio managers, asking their thoughts on what the next year might look like in the financial markets. The managers—who oversee $13.2 trillion of assets—were generally optimistic, but didn’t expect the recent torrid pace of stock market gains to continue.
The survey found that 35% of institutions plan to decrease exposure to U.S. stocks, allocating more to developed European and Asian markets,

THE MARKET SEEMS to have found its footing when it comes to inflation. Friday’s Consumer Price Index report was roughly in line with expectations. Recently, there haven’t been any major shifts in the experts’ inflation forecasts. The bond market has also calmed down. Just a few weeks ago, the 10-year Treasury yield neared 1.7%. It settled at 1.49% on Friday.
Volatility could reemerge later this week, however. Data on producer prices post on Tuesday,

MY YEAR BEGAN WITH a fulltime job at an energy trading company. But I knew my days were numbered. I’d spent six years trading, working with clients and helping to manage risk, all while being surrounded by smart and fun people. But as side gigs, I’d also spent several years writing about finance and teaching as an adjunct professor. Writing became my passion—one that didn’t mesh well with my day job.
That’s how, in January,

FINANCIAL MARKETS had a lot to digest in recent days: Retail analysts are keeping a close eye on holiday spending, economists got their latest dose of employment data—and traders are coming to grips with the current bout of volatility.
The VIX, the S&P 500 Volatility Index or “fear gauge,” surged above 30 on Friday. That was the highest end-of-week close since January. For perspective, the VIX climbed to 80 during 2020’s COVID-19 stock market crash.

DRIVING PART of the nation’s labor shortage is a wave of early retirements dubbed the “Great Resignation.” A red-hot housing market and booming stock market have made it financially easier for many to quit traditional nine-to-five employment, as has employers’ embrace of part-time, work-from-home positions. Add to that virus concerns and parents’ difficulty finding child care, and you’ve had a perfect storm for the labor market.
According to a recent article in The Wall Street Journal,

COVID STRIKES AGAIN. The new Omicron variant found in parts of southern Africa was the reason cited for Friday’s stock market freefall. It was the worst day for the S&P 500 since late February. So far this year, the U.S. stock market has endured a 2% one-day drop on six occasions.
This most recent market plunge felt similar to declines in February and March 2020, making investors extra jittery and prompting traders to reopen their playbook from 22 months ago.

THERE’S BEEN MUCH talk in 2021 about the future of work, with a big focus on remote and hybrid office arrangements. But I’m more intrigued by another major trend: job hopping. Each month, labor economists get a fresh read on the pace of hirings, firings and quits. In fact, the “quit rate” has become a household term in 2021, as workers change jobs to snag higher pay.
That got me thinking about conventional personal finance wisdom,

THE BOND MARKET has had a turbulent year. Interest rates, which move in the opposite direction of bond prices, spiked in early 2021 on hopes of an economic reopening. The 10-year Treasury yield, which started the year under 1%, surged above 1.75% in March, before subsiding in the second quarter and the third quarter’s initial weeks.
Today, 10-year Treasury buyers can earn a smidgen more than 1.5%, far less than the 6.2% inflation rate.

BORED ONE WEEKEND, I took up actor Ryan Reynolds on his offer to switch cellphone carriers. Frugal guy that I am, I’d been a loyal Republic Wireless subscriber for several years before my recent change. My new plan is on the Mint Mobile platform.
Perhaps you’ve seen Mint’s commercials on NFL Sunday or when perusing YouTube videos, with its offer of four gigabytes of data with unlimited text and calls. This will cost me a measly $201 a year,

IF YOU’RE LIKE ME, you want to stick with your long-term investment plan, while remaining open to new ideas. It’s a balancing act—to avoid missing a new, long-lasting trend, while not getting caught up in a bubble.
That’s how I feel about cryptocurrencies. Their market cap has swelled to $2.6 trillion. But what does that mean? Contrast that to the value of the global stock and bond markets: Each is about $125 trillion.
To me,

IT’S CRUNCH TIME for retailers. Black Friday, it’s said, is the day many stores finally turn a profit for the year. While that’s a myth, there’s no doubt analysts will be watching closely to see how consumers spend the extra cash generated by stimulus checks and an improving economy.
Americans sure seem ready to spend. According to Creditcards.com, approximately four in 10 shoppers are willing to go into or add to debt for this year’s holiday spending.

OCTOBER’S EMPLOYMENT report was impressive: 531,000 jobs were created, beating economists’ expectations. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.6%, while average hourly earnings increased a solid 0.4% from September.
Across the board, the data from the U.S. labor market show the economy is humming along, with no signs of stagflation. I like to dig into the wage numbers to see which segments of the workforce are enjoying the best pay increases. Leisure and hospitality pay rose the most,

HEALTH SAVINGS accounts are frequently praised on HumbleDollar—with good reason. A lesser-known benefit: Health savings accounts, or HSAs, can be a boon for new employees, thanks to the last-month rule.
What’s that? If you have a qualifying high deductible health plan (HDHP) as of Dec. 1, you’re eligible to make a full-year HSA contribution, even if you only just bought an HDHP. On top of that, if you continue HDHP coverage,

THE 2017 TAX CUTS and Jobs Act doubled the standard deduction. It’s estimated that 90% of households took the standard deduction in 2018, rather than itemizing, up from 69% in 2017.
The tax-code overhaul essentially means it costs more to donate to your favorite qualifying charities—unless you’re among the 10% whose itemized deductions exceed their standard deduction. To be sure, we shouldn’t give to charity solely for the potential tax benefit. Even if you itemize and hence you can deduct your gift,

IT WASN’T LONG AGO that a saver could make a few bucks in a money market fund. In late 2018, the Federal Reserve had hiked short-term interest rates. By early the next year, Vanguard Federal Money Market Fund (symbol: VMFXX) was sporting a yield near 2.5%.
While it might take years to see that sort of juicy risk-free rate again, market observers now believe the Fed will begin a tightening cycle that will lead to higher short-term interest rates.

WE SPEND TOO MUCH time worrying about stagflation. The term describes a period of high inflation with stagnant growth—a disastrous economic condition. It was seen at times during the worst of the mid-1970s recession, and again when inflation spiked in the early 1980s.
Do we see it today? No way.
Everyone over 60 surely recalls how difficult it was decades ago. Consumer prices were out of control. The unemployment rate jumped. Real wages were on the decline,

DO I SOUND LIKE a broken record? Last week, the performance gap between U.S. and foreign stocks widened even further. Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (symbol: VTI) has now returned 21.6% so far in 2021, while Vanguard FTSE All World ex-U.S. ETF (VEU) is up just 9.4%.
International funds’ relative weakness has become so routine that it rarely makes the financial news. What’s different this time: The economic landscape would seem to favor foreign shares,

REMEMBER JULY 2008? The financial system was faltering following Bear Stearns’s March 2008 forced merger with J.P. Morgan Chase. That summer, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac needed special assistance. The Global Financial Crisis was almost upon us.
But many folks forget that, at that time, another crisis was coming to a head—a global energy squeeze.
In 2008, I was a busy 20-year-old driving my 1998 Toyota Camry around Jacksonville, Florida, taking summer classes and working a part-time job.

LAST WEEK’S NEWS that Social Security recipients will receive a 5.9% cost-of-living adjustment for 2022 might seem like a nonevent. After all, those larger monthly checks will be fully devoured by today’s higher prices.
Or maybe not.
September’s report for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed that inflation for medical care services—a big cost for retirees—was quite tame over the past 12 months, rising less than 1%. Seniors also spend significantly less on transportation,

A RECENT RULING from the Department of Labor appears to pave the way for more ESG (environmental, social and governance) mutual funds in 401(k) plans. Last week, Morningstar even launched an ESG-focused retirement plan service.
ESG assets are modest compared to other parts of the money management business, but they’re growing fast. Fund flows are substantial in the U.S. and gigantic in Europe. Investors are increasingly putting their money where their conscience is. But is that really a good thing when it comes to building our long-term wealth?

HAVING LEFT the nine-to-five world, I face a decision: What to do about health insurance? I’m a single, generally healthy millennial. Historically, I’ve not run up major medical bills. But as with the financial markets, past performance doesn’t guarantee future outcomes. Here are the five options I’ve been considering:
1. Continue COBRA. When I left my job, I kept my old employer’s health plan, but I have to pay the full cost of coverage.

THE LATEST BIG NEWS in the money management world: Vanguard Group said it had completed the acquisition of Just Invest, while Franklin Templeton announced it was buying O’Shaughnessy Asset Management. With these purchases, the two firms entered the direct indexing arena in a big way.
Direct indexing—or custom indexing—involves using quantitative tools to tailor a portfolio’s individual stock and bond holdings to each investor’s preferences. Say you don’t want to own tobacco stocks. No problem.

THE HOLIDAYS ARE almost here, but supply-chain bottlenecks and order backlogs continue to wreak havoc with the economy. Forget stocking up on Halloween candy. Instead, you might want to focus on buying the latest hot Christmas toys for your kids—right now.
J.P. Morgan Asset Management put out a research piece last week detailing the logistical nightmare gripping global markets. Its charts reveal a skyrocketing number of anchored containerships near the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach waiting to unload.

CAST YOUR MIND BACK 10 years—to Oct. 3, 2011. There was a fire-sale on Wall Street. Two months earlier, brinksmanship on Capitol Hill had culminated in Standard & Poor’s first-ever downgrade of the U.S. government. Meanwhile, Greece was on the verge of collapse, prompting the European Central Bank to take extreme measures to combat the region’s debt debacle.
It was a scary time. But—as is so often the case—the dire stories on financial television marked the beginning of a great period for long-term investors.

VANGUARD GROUP today announced significant price cuts for its fleet of target-date retirement funds. Currently, investors can own a Vanguard target fund for the seemingly low cost of 0.12% to 0.15% a year, equal to $12 to $15 for every $10,000 invested. The new price tag will be just 0.08%, effective February 2022.
It might not seem like much, but the price cuts announced today will deliver an aggregate savings of $190 million to investors in 2022,

EVEN INDEX FUND investors need the occasional psychological boost—which brings us to the ongoing S&P Index Versus Active (SPIVA) study’s mid-year review, which was published last week. The data from S&P Dow Jones Indices, a division of S&P Global, serve as a reminder that picking winning stocks and funds is mighty hard.
I used to serve on a 401(k) committee. I’d keep an eye on the active funds included in our investment lineup. Returns looked good.

NATIXIS INVESTMENT Managers published its ninth annual Global Retirement Index last week, which focused on overall wellbeing and financial security. The U.S. slipped to an unimpressive 17th out of 25 countries.
Perhaps that isn’t surprising given the state of Social Security. Based on the program’s current financing, benefits would need to be cut after 2033. None of us wants to hear that, but we also aren’t surprised. The Natixis study reports that a whopping 77% of U.S.

MY FIRST JOB DURING high school was bagging groceries at Publix Super Markets. The starting wage was a cool $7 per hour in 2004. That was big money to me. It meant I could work the weekends and a few nights a week, and then buy music CDs on eBay. My 2005 goal was to earn enough to fund a Roth IRA at Vanguard Group.
Today’s teenagers have it better. Don’t take my word for it: The latest wage growth tracker,

DIVIDEND YIELDS MAY be tiny, but they sure they get talked about a lot. As Rick Connor pointed out on Friday, the S&P 500 stocks collectively yield just 1.3%—near 20-year lows. Yields have fallen as share prices have climbed and as companies have put more emphasis on stock buybacks. In fact, today, companies spend more on buying back their own shares than paying dividends.
Companies continuously manage their capital structure—how much of the enterprise is funded by issuing stock and how much with debt.

HOW LUCKY I WAS to be the recipient of a dinner invitation to Ruth’s Chris. I love a sizzling ribeye, so I booked my seat at the event. Those nearing and in retirement have a good idea of what I’m referring to—the good old annuity sales presentation.
These dinners are put on by financial advisors looking to expand their business. The routine goes like this: Invite prospects, present for an hour on the benefits of owning insurance or an annuity,

STEPPING INTO the HumbleDollar confessional, I admit to dabbling in a few high-fee, low-liquidity investments. It goes against much of what I stand for. But on occasion, I, too, reach for yield and the promise of returns uncorrelated with stocks. Before the chastising begins, please know that these speculative stakes total less than 3% of my portfolio. The rest is invested mainly in funds with expense ratios under 0.15%—and some have zero costs.

AT THE CRACK OF DAWN each day, I grab a cup of coffee, and then dig into the latest investment articles and research reports. Last week’s most intriguing insight: According to data from Emerging Portfolio Fund Research, investment flows into global stocks are on pace to hit $1.048 trillion this year.
To appreciate the magnitude of this year’s inflows, consider that 2017 ranks as the next strongest year—at a relatively paltry $300 billion. Other years,

PETER LYNCH, the famed Fidelity Investments’ mutual fund manager, used to advise investors to “buy what you know.” But many of today’s investors have other ideas.
Obscure cryptocurrencies and nonfungible tokens have taken the financial social media by storm. Most investors have heard of bitcoin, ethereum and dogecoin. But a new set of coins have emerged—cardano and solana are the hot trades. Meanwhile, JPEG and GIF image files are changing hands for ridiculous amounts of money.

TEN YEARS AGO, I recall sitting in a meeting at a local financial planning firm. We hadn’t heard of cryptocurrencies. The term “FAANG stocks” hadn’t yet been coined. On the minds of many individual investors was a different hot asset: gold.
Gold is the butt of many jokes in the financial blogosphere these days. Who can blame them? The shiny metal is flat over the past decade—and, of course, has produced no dividends in that time—while the S&P 500’s total return is more than 370%.

A DECADE AGO, I was sure I knew everything. I scrimped and saved as much as I could to fully fund my retirement accounts. My goal was to retire early. All that was fine for me.
My error: casting my credos on others. I gave my parents grief for what I considered to be their excessive spending and insufficient regard for long-term planning. I was wrong.
While it’s imperative for those in their 40s and 50s to have their retirement plan on track,

ALL EYES ON FRIDAY were focused on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. “Will Powell announce an aggressive taper plan?” many market-watchers wondered. Not a whole lot new was presented, and that triggered a stock market rally. The S&P 500 notched its 52nd all-time high of 2021 and the Russell 2000 small-cap index had one of its best days of the year.
Small caps got off to a hot start in 2021. By mid-March, the Russell 2000 was up 19% on the year,

GROWING UP, my older brother beat me in just about every sporting match we played. Basketball, football, tennis—it was remarkable.
I noticed his key to winning was avoiding mistakes. Take tennis. My brother would casually return a soft lob over the net to avoid an unforced error. Meanwhile, I’d pretend I was Andy Roddick and go for the forehand winner every chance I got. My brother would simply watch as my aggressive shot landed outside the lines.

I MAY BE THE POSTER child for the new retirement, switching back and forth between standard employment and side gigs, as I seek work that I find fulfilling. I’m not alone: It seems many people are retiring earlier than they planned and then working part-time, moving in and out of the workforce based on need and opportunity.
The annual Retirement Confidence Survey from the Employee Benefit Research Institute (EBRI) shows that—while workers expect to retire at age 65—the median retirement age is actually 62.

THERE’S A LOT of handwringing right now about U.S. stock market valuations. Prof. Robert Shiller’s cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio, or CAPE, has rarely been more famous—or perhaps infamous. It’s currently perched near 39, meaning buyers of the S&P 500 are paying almost 39 times average inflation-adjusted corporate earnings for the past 10 years. That number might mean little to many without proper context. It was around five at the worst of the Great Depression,

BANK OF AMERICA’S monthly fund manager survey takes the pulse of portfolio managers around the world. The latest survey was released last week—and some of the results weren’t so rosy.
Despite a record-breaking quarter for corporate profits, which blew past analysts’ predictions, money managers have turned more bearish. Perhaps recent market volatility, especially among foreign stocks, has caused jitters. Also casting an ominous cloud is the Delta variant’s global spread. On top of that,

NOW MORE THAN EVER, people are hungry for yield or, failing that, a reliable return that doesn’t hinge on the performance of the stock and bond markets. Those puny money market and “high yield” savings account rates may suffice for your emergency fund. But after factoring in inflation, keeping too much in cash investments is a losing proposition.
Last week, a 50-something neighbor asked me for investment ideas to help him bridge the gap between now and retirement.

REMEMBER 2020’S BIG market swings? Financial markets have been more boring of late. But are things too quiet?
The VIX is the most  commonly cited indicator of market volatility. Turn on CNBC or flip through The Wall Street Journal and you’ll likely learn the latest reading for the “fear gauge.” Last Friday’s close was among the lowest of the year, with the VIX at a little more than 15, versus an historical average closer to 20.

FINANCE NERD THAT I am, I gleefully dug into the 2021 Capital Markets Fact Book that was just published by SIFMA. I was particularly humbled by a chart showing the breakdown of the global stock and bond markets. Why humbled? The data show just how great we U.S. investors have had it in the past decade.
The Fact Book first displays the $58 trillion global stock market’s composition in 2010.

EARNINGS SEASON is wrapping up on Wall Street. Analysts’ predictions and companies’ profit guidance is a bit of a dog-and-pony show, as HumbleDollar contributor Kyle Mcintosh recently described. Still, there’s some useful information to be gleaned from second-quarter results and from executives’ comments.
In particular, I look forward to the FactSet weekly earnings season update to see which pockets of the stock market have the best and worst figures. According to last Friday’s report,

FRUGALITY GETS A BAD rap these days. It seems today’s standard advice is to “go ahead and buy your darn daily latte.” Instead, we’re told to worry about bigger financial issues.
That’s probably good advice. Small purchases here and there will likely boost our mood, while clipping coupons probably won’t move the net worth needle. Still, I’ve adopted a cheapskate practice that can be lucrative: brokerage firm retention bonuses.
To snag these bonuses, you typically need a sizable IRA or taxable account.

JULY WAS ANOTHER positive month for U.S. stocks, which gained 1.7%. But overseas markets were down 1.4%, with emerging markets faring even worse, tumbling 5.9%.
Last week, the Chinese government clamped down on its education and technology industries, sparking a sharp selloff. The return of Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF (symbol: VWO), which is 40% Chinese stocks, briefly turned negative for the year, while U.S. stocks continue to sport year-to-date gains of more than 15%.

VANGUARD GROUP released its latest How America Saves report last month. The survey details the behavior of participants in Vanguard-managed 401(k) and similar retirement plans.
Wall Street likes to depict everyday investors as fools. But the Vanguard report paints a very different picture: Employees are getting smarter. They’re saving more, trading less and aren’t so inclined to take big positions in their employer’s stock.
As I flipped through the numbers and charts with a cup of coffee on a recent Saturday morning,

YOU MIGHT RECALL Malcolm in the Middle, a turn-of-the-century TV sitcom in which the middle child often feels ignored. That’s kind of what goes on with midsized stocks.
Large-capitalization growth shares and small-cap value stocks seem to get all the attention these days. The former feature the FAAMG companies (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft and Google) and other 2020 winners, while the latter are the darling of investors who embrace academic research showing strong long-term outperformance by small-cap value shares.

SERIES I SAVINGS bonds are getting a lot of attention right now because their stated yield is 3.54%, an apparently fabulous interest rate on an almost no-risk investment.
But don’t be fooled: While I bonds are a fine choice for super-conservative investors, you’ll get that 3.54% annualized yield for just six months and thereafter the yield could be far lower.
I bonds feature a variable interest rate that floats with inflation. That floating rate resets each May and November based on recent inflation.

STOP LUSTING AFTER homes on Zillow. It’s time to get serious about the property market—and ask whether houses today are a good value.
Make no mistake: Real estate is red hot. Bloomberg recently reported that demand is so strong that almost half of U.S. homes sell within a week of coming to market. The S&P Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index surged 12% over the 12 months through February, with the Phoenix and San Diego markets leading the way with 17% gains.

WANT TO RUFFLE SOME feathers? All you have to do is utter “FIRE movement” on social media or in a crowded room of financial advisors. FIRE—short for financial independence/retire early—has grown ever more controversial as rising stock prices have fattened the portfolios of super-savers and brought their early retirement dreams closer to reality.
I fit the mold of the super-saver. I’ve saved 90% or more of my after-tax income over the past few years.

I RECENTLY LEFT MY fulltime position at an energy trading company. I had a good run and enjoyed the job. It was mainly the people, both my coworkers and our clients.
I also liked the business travel. It broke up the daily routine and put faces to names, plus there were the awesome ribeye steak dinners with clients. Speaking at conferences was fun, too.
But things evolve. To quote Rocky, “If I can change and you can change,

READERS KNOW I LOVE my baseball. There’s an old unwritten rule that, when a pitcher is working a perfect game, nobody talks to him. The position players leave the hurler alone since he needs to be “in the zone.” Fans grow more nervous as the game progresses and the ninth inning draws near. With each passing out, the prized perfect game comes closer into view.
I’m getting the same antsy feeling when it comes to highflying tech stocks.

I STILL CONSIDER myself one of the younger folks at the energy trading firm where I work. The more tenured employees will sometimes talk about the early 1980s, when mortgage rates were north of 10%. “Try paying that down quickly,” they’ll quip, as we watch the 10-year Treasury note yield scroll by on the ticker—at around 0.7%.
I never thought interest rates would stay this low, especially given the recovery since March by both the stock market and many economic indicators.

THE MID-2000s WERE my introduction to the investment world—and even today my thinking is heavily influenced by what was happening then.
Take a moment to recall the 2004-07 period. Stock prices were marching higher, foreign shares were crushing U.S. stocks, small caps were doing all right and you could get a decent interest rate on your savings account. Good times. Another feature of the mid-2000s market: a big bull run in commodities.
Back then,

I’VE PREPARED countless meals over the past few months—a result of COVID-19, which continues to have a big impact on daily life, especially here in Florida. Still, I’ve come to enjoy cooking and eating at home has saved me a ton of money.
But not all coronavirus habits have been good for our financial health. That brings me to the (supposed) rise of the Robinhood trader. By now, we’ve all seen the headlines and read the stories.

I RECENTLY WROTE about the market indicators I pay attention to. As a long-term, buy-and-hold investor focused on gradually building wealth, I downplay the importance of day-to-day market gyrations. Nevertheless, I can’t deny my fascination with charts and big market moves.
Back in college, I used to watch CNBC all the time. Now, I rarely have it on. The talking heads are constantly discussing matters that I believe are distractions. There’s a set of indicators that make headlines and are great fodder for financial journalists,

I MISS BASEBALL. I love the strategy and the moments of excitement that come in the later innings. I also like to attend games, watching the interaction among the players and coaches. The third base coach plays a big role, relaying signals from the manager to the baserunners and the batter. If you’re a player, and you miss a signal, it can ruin the next play.
While the stock market has signals, they aren’t as black and white as those in baseball.

MEGA-CAP TECHNOLOGY growth stocks were huge winners during the last bull market and even during this year’s coronavirus crash. But recently, they’ve lagged, while small-cap value companies have posted robust gains.
Indeed, after a decade of lackluster performance, diversified portfolios that contain sizable holdings of foreign, small cap and value stocks have started to perk up. Could mean reversion finally be taking place? Are we at an inflection point?
It could be—or it could be just another twitch in the market,

WORKING ON A TRADING floor has its perks—or, at least, it did back when we were all in the office, instead of toiling away from home. The trading floor where I work is small, but it still houses perhaps 50 people.
As you’d expect, we have TVs all around, tuned to CNBC, Bloomberg and—my personal favorite—The Weather Channel. My colleagues often talk stocks and portfolios. What’s neat is you get a good sense of investor sentiment being out on the floor and among finance folks who are geared to day-to-day market movements.

THE GREAT RECESSION and accompanying stock market plunge didn’t seem so bad to me. At the time, I was a 20-year-old college student with a little money in a Roth IRA that I’d opened and funded since my high school days. Sure, it was no fun losing half my investment account, but it wasn’t a lot of money—at least compared to today.
In the years since, I’ve fallen squarely into the super-saver category, socking away a large portion of my income.

COVID-19 HAS HIT ALL of us. Small business owners, especially those with families to support, face great financial risk. Ditto for contract workers and others with little job security. Even those with relatively steady nine-to-five white collar jobs have good reason to be nervous.
Meanwhile, those nearing retirement might need to put their plans on hold. Millennials like me, though we lived through 2008, have more financial responsibility this time around—and sense the gravity of COVID-19 and its consequences.

WE LOVE TO procrastinate. Have you done your taxes yet? IRS data show that nearly a quarter of Americans wait until the last two weeks of tax season to file. It often feels like that nagging task that grows more arduous each year, though the result for many is a juicy refund.
The average federal tax refund is more than $2,800, so it can pay to get your taxes done sooner rather than later.

AS A TEENAGER, I started to invest by buying a boring old target-date retirement fund. But from there, I became an avid watcher of CNBC while studying finance in college. Indeed, my first financial love was technical analysis. Even today, when markets turn volatile, I’m as susceptible as the next investor to turning on financial cable TV to check out the supposed carnage.
Still, as time has worn on, my perspective has grown longer term and away from day-to-day market movements.

MY THREE FAVORITE words in response to questions about investing and trading: “I don’t know.”
Nothing underscores that sentiment more than bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. I work on a trading floor, where it pays to have an opinion on just about every tradable asset. But I’m the oddball on the floor. I roll my eyes when I hear blanket market predictions and the latest hot stock tip. I’m even on a personal crusade to remove CNBC from the TVs at work.

A NATIVE CHICAGOAN, I bailed out and am now a Southerner. Or at least a Florida Man. So I attend church each Sunday. If you attend church in the south, you will inevitably hear someone respond to a “how are ya?” with “well, I just keep on keepin’ on.”
With all the fanfare about this bull market, and especially large-cap technology stocks, it can be tough to keep on keepin’ on and stick to your long-term plan.

I TURNED 32 LAST month. My mother, clearing through clutter as she and my father look to downsize ahead of retirement, found an old savings bond of mine issued shortly after I was born. It’s a series EE bond that cost a modest $25 in December 1987. The finance professor in me reacted with “imagine if that were invested in the S&P 500.”
The $25 savings bond had grown to $104, a 4.1% nominal annual return and 1.9% after figuring in inflation.