Inflicting Pain
Mike Zaccardi | Aug 29, 2022
FEDERAL RESERVE CHAIR Jerome Powell, speaking last Friday at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, said that bringing down inflation will mean “some pain” for households. But what sort of pain are we talking about?
Powell and the rest of the Fed members are hoping to create “tight conditions.” That isn’t some opaque description of the economy and financial markets. Instead, the term has four specific components that help dictate Fed policy.
- The U.S. dollar. A stronger greenback slows economic growth by making domestic goods more expensive for foreign buyers. Net exports, a factor in determining GDP, often drop when the dollar rises. With the dollar near 20-year highs, the currency market is working in the Fed’s favor.
- Corporate bond yields. When interest rates climb, corporate borrowing and investment slow. The Fed won’t be thrilled by what’s happening here. The spread between high-yield “junk” bonds and Treasury bonds, after easing during the summer, is now widening once again. But the spread between higher-quality corporate bonds and Treasurys remains modest by historical standards.
- Stock market performance. This component is as basic as it sounds. Lower stock prices sometimes lead to reduced consumer spending, because folks feel less flush—what’s called a “wealth effect.” The upshot: For now, the Fed might want to see the bear market continue.
- Interest rates. For consumers, higher borrowing rates stifle spending, including spending on home purchases. Look no further than the state of the real estate market, where sales seem to be slowing sharply amid plunging housing affordability. As of last week, the average rate on a 30-year conventional mortgage was 5.73%.
We can think of the current period as a hangover from 2021’s binge of stimulus and speculation. Today’s high inflation is the price we’re all paying, and the Fed is hell-bent on taming it. The good news: Expected inflation is at its lowest level since January. Investors and traders are pricing in much softer inflation readings for the next five years. But getting to those lower inflation rates will likely require some pain.
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The strong dollar reduces the price of imported goods, which helps fight inflation for US consumers. More importantly, it’ll make my upcoming foreign travel much more affordable. . . !
The problem is corporate power. If you look at the % of corporate earnings going to workers it has declined over the past decades.
Corporations could easily afford to pay their workers more with no price increases.
Whenever I read pronouncements like this I can’t help but wonder what analysis backs them up. No model is offered to show cause-and-effect, nor is the claim consistent with the inflation being experienced in countries not receiving Fed dollars. How does “stimulus and speculation” explain the 9% inflation in the Euro zone? The UK inflation of 10%? Brazil at 10%? Poland at 12%? Something is happening worldwide.
Binge of stimulation is surely the right words. Now with the loan forgiveness there is more fuel on the fire even it is a few basis points.
I hope the “tight conditions” also soon apply to Federal spending. Its hard to grasp the fact that we had a slight surplus under Clinton and now are trillions of dollars in debt. I do understand the multiple wars we funded/funding and Covid, but at some point we have to realize our debt trajectory is unsustainable. Both Republicans and Democrats are at fault for both the debt and our ongoing spending, so will be difficult to identify the adults in the room that can help reign in this recklessness.
And many Americans are at fault by accepting the notion of “free” as long as something comes from government while not realizing government has no money. That and the entitlement mentality of many. I love it when a comparison of social programs is made between the US and Scandinavian countries, but leaves out a comparison of taxes