Make My Day Punk, Harvest the Bubble.
Mark Crothers | Oct 14, 2025
The normal thinking would have us believing that a bubble is a dangerous situation for our retirement accounts. What if I told you that I believe a market bubble makes your portfolio more resilient? Would you believe me? Everyone fears bubbles. You should harvest them. Don't worry, I haven't lost the plot, let me be clear: I'm being deliberately provocative to make a point about something some investors neglect when things are going splendidly well, disciplined rebalancing. In reality, bubbles are only devastating if you lack a system. With the right approach, they can actually strengthen your portfolio. I have some caveats to qualify my contention, although they are actions you should, as a responsible investor, already be practicing. Rule one. Don't be greedy and lose track of your investment statement. Rule two. Rebalance your inflated equity position back to your proper asset allocation. Rule three. When the bubble bursts, draw from your cash and bond positions. That's all you need to do. Rule one forces you to rebalance, rule two forces your allocation back to your statement allocation and indirectly increases the size of your safe assets. Rule three stops you from selling distressed equities. Let me show you what this looks like in practice. Say you start with a $1,000,000 portfolio split 60/40 between stocks and bonds. This means you have $600,000 in stocks and $400,000 in bonds.A bubble inflates your equities by 50%, growing your stocks to $900,000 while your bonds stay stable at $400,000. Your total portfolio is now $1,300,000. You now have a risky 69/31 split.Most investors, your neighbor, for instance, ride this wave, convinced they're geniuses. You rebalance.You sell $120,000 in stocks at bubble prices and use that cash to buy bonds. Your portfolio is now back to a 60/40 split, with $780,000 in…
Read more » The Playground Indicator
Mark Crothers | Jan 30, 2026
Gold fever seems to be everywhere at the moment. My grandson asked me the other day, "Do you own any gold, Pops?" I said no and asked why he was curious. Apparently, even ten-year-olds know that gold is having quite a run. Pushing through the $5,000 mark had captured his imagination. There's something amusing about being financially questioned by a ten-year-old who only recently discovered the tooth fairy isn't real. I've been investing for decades, and I'm getting the third degree from a kid whose worldly wealth consists entirely of football cards and a bag of loose change. "So you don't have any?" he pressed, with a disappointed tone. "Afraid not," I admitted. He shook his head with the wisdom of someone who's watched three YouTube videos on the subject. "You should probably get some, Pops. Everyone's talking about it." Everyone, meaning him, his buddy, and presumably their classmates who watched the same three videos. I know the usual advice is probably true: gold has historically moved differently from stocks and bonds and all that stuff. I also realise many investors hold a modest amount through a low-cost ETF, treating it as a bit of fun. But I don't own any. Not because I think it's foolish, but because I've never gotten around to it. My portfolio does fine as it is. The only gold I possess is a wedding ring. Could I be better diversified with some gold exposure? Goodness knows. But do I care? Not enough to have done anything about it over the last forty years. To my mind, gold doesn't pay dividends or interest. It doesn't grow earnings. Its only return comes from price appreciation, which depends on some eejit being willing to pay more for it later. I just like stocks and bonds, which generate…
Read more » The Best Money We Almost Didn’t Spend
Mark Crothers | Nov 7, 2025
The thought came into my mind the other morning when drinking coffee in the sunroom. Over the years have you ever prevaricated or had doubts about spending money on specific things, then with the gift of hindsight realised it was a great use of your hard earned cash? The sunroom in question very nearly didn't happen. My wife Suzie and I had closed on an old two bedroom house. We could see past the surface state and knew the plot had massive potential for refurbishment and expansion into a great home. Six months later, with the end of the project in sight and with a considerable amount of cash sunk into the refurbishment, the contractor floated the idea of knocking out another wall and building a large sunroom overlooking the large mature garden. Cash was tight and it would be a considerable extra expense, but after a lot of thought we went ahead. The last minute addition is now the heart and most used space in the whole house. I don't have to stretch my memory that hard to find other occasions when doubt and reluctance over purchases have in retrospect been wonderful uses of money. When younger I anguished over taking three months unpaid leave to hike around Australia and parts of South East Asia with my wife Suzie. The loss of earnings and depletion of savings turned into one of the best experiences imaginable. Unique memories, like trying to hurry a comfort break in the Australian outback when I noticed a twenty foot snake wrapped around the roof beam above my head. Or dining in a pagoda in Java during a tropical rain storm when thousands of bullfrogs unearthed themselves for breeding during the rains. They hopped through the wall-less restaurant looking for frog romance. That money bought…
Read more » Financial Wisdom from the Scottish Bard
Mark Crothers | Jan 25, 2026
I'm sure there's a few readers on Humble Dollar with a Scottish heritage and you might also be aware that tonight in Scotland, the air will be thick with the scent of haggis and the sound of bagpipes. It's Burns Night, the annual celebration of Robert Burns, Scotland’s national poet. While he's famous for "Auld Lang Syne," Burns wasn't just a romantic; he was known as a "Ploughman Poet" who knew the weight of debt and the grind of manual labor. Burns famously noted in To a Mouse that "the best laid schemes o' mice an' men / Gang aft agley" (go often awry). It’s a reminder for any retiree. You can project a 7% return until you’re blue in the face, but life and the markets, much like the plow that upturned the mouse’s nest, rarely follows a straight line. The simple lesson? Build a plan that accounts for the "agley" moments, prioritizing liquidity and flexibility over rigid spreadsheets. But why do we save at all? Burns captured the heart of the "being Financially Independent" mindset long before it had a name. In his Epistle to a Young Friend, he advised gathering wealth "not for to hide it in a hedge... but for the glorious privilege / Of being independent." Retirement, to my mind, isn't really about hoarding wealth for its own sake. It’s about buying back your time. That "glorious privilege" is the ability to wake up and own your day without a manager's input, the ultimate return on investment. The Bard called it a “glorious privilege”, modern terminology might use a more colorful acronym involving the letter F If I stretch the meaning of one more of the poet's lines "it's no in wealth like Lon'on Bank / To purchase peace and rest." We can think of…
Read more » The High Cost of Financial Advice: A Tale of Two Portfolios
Mark Crothers | Jul 8, 2025
Suzie and I present a microcosm of the debate around financial advisors. I choose to use Vanguard and keep my costs low, whereas Suzie uses a former long-time colleague from her days in the banking sector who happens to be an independent wealth manager to operate her portfolio. To me, the portfolio seems unnecessarily complicated with an average fund fee of slightly over 1.5% in addition to a 0.5% advisor fee. This seems exorbitant in my eyes. My wife's portfolio is approximately 50% larger than mine but pays 900% more in fees. And no, I didn't make a mistake with an extra zero. The difference in absolute fees becomes even more substantial as the portfolio grows. While my Vanguard fees benefit from the platform's fee cap, Suzie's fees continue to scale directly with the size of her portfolio. This illustrates how the impact of higher percentage fees becomes increasingly significant, dramatically reducing the potential for long-term compound growth on larger sums of money. For simplicity's sake, if I take a 7% average gross return, my portfolio will be bigger than Suzie's within 25 years. If that doesn't work as a stark reminder about the corrosive effect of fees, I really don't know what will. (I got Google Gemini to work this out for me) The question is whether the additional services provided by Suzie's wealth manager justify the significantly higher cost, especially when simpler, lower-cost alternatives exist. Luckily for me, I'm in the privileged position that Suzie is my wife and doesn't mind me logging into her portfolio's access portal and nosing around. Our portfolios are substantially similar in makeup. I've a slightly higher equity allocation, and Suzie has more infrastructure and utilities, which I think is the reason it had slightly less volatility during the recent market turmoil. But…
Read more » The Edge of Indifference
Mark Crothers | Oct 15, 2025
I don't know if there's an academic term for one aspect of my personality. I honestly struggle to articulate what it is. The best I can do is describe it as a total lack of emotional investment in the political and economic situation in the world around me, an absence of the ability to deeply care about the personalities and themes of the great political and financial stage. It puzzles me that people feel so passionately about these events and figures. The contradiction is that I'm intellectually engaged and interested in the financial and business landscape and the underlying economic systems supporting the world economy. As for politics, I'm totally agnostic. My only interest is in how the leader of the moment's policies intersect with the economy and their impact on the financial world. Beyond that, our political mob could be from Mars for all I care. So why am I sharing this personal worldview? It's simple: I have many annoying facets, but the detachment I've described is, I think, the state we should aspire toward in our financial and particularly our investment lives. What I call "detachment" can be viewed as prioritization. I'm not emotionless, I care about understanding the systems. I don't care about the hyperbolic theatre that accompanies actual events. I process political information for its long-term, systemic impact, a change in corporate tax rates, a shift in regulatory framework, and immediately discard the rhetoric and personality clashes. I feel some investors get burned because they conflate the globe's economic systems with the political and media circus. The economy operates on innovation, productivity, and wealth generation. The circus is a nonstop source of short-term noise, driven by election cycles, geopolitical shocks, and breathless financial headlines. This noise is specifically engineered to bypass your rational thought process. Behavioral…
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