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A recent forum post on keeping gold bars as financial crisis insurance got me thinking about alternative stores of value. I’ll admit there’s an element of tongue-in-cheek to what follows — but I also think it might prove rather more useful than stuffing a gold bar in each pocket and heading out to barter for your Sunday lunch. It would certainly be kinder to the structural integrity of said pockets.
I have to point out my perspective on this comes from an unusual place. Growing up with the backdrop of extreme civil strife, my extended family contained what I might charitably describe as a significant concentration of seriously dangerous people. I won’t elaborate, except to say it occasionally proved instructive.
Take barter economies. The textbook answer is gold: compact, durable, universally recognised. But gold’s reputation rests almost entirely on theory. I happen to have a real-world reference point most investors lack — the economy of various high-security correctional facilities.
In that environment, gold is largely useless. Tobacco is everything. Scarce, portable, and wanted by a significant portion of the population who can’t easily obtain it. In a closed economy with constrained supply and reliable demand, it functions as a remarkably stable currency. People will trade almost anything for it.
There is one practical difficulty with this strategy: it does rather require you to be comfortable with the clientele.
But the underlying observation scales. Consider what actually happens when a national payment system fails. Not the theoretical collapse theorists imagine, but the mundane reality of it: card terminals dark, cash machines empty, supply chains seizing up within days. In that environment, gold faces a problem nobody discusses: it requires a functioning market to establish its value. You need a buyer who trusts the metal, agrees on its purity, and has something worth trading. That negotiation could be difficult when society is operating on anxiety and improvisation.
Tobacco requires none of that infrastructure. Its value is immediate, visceral, and self-evident to anyone who wants it — which, I’m guessing, turns out to be a remarkable number of people. Addiction is, in the coldest possible sense, an extraordinarily reliable demand signal. You don’t need to convince anyone of its worth. They already know.
It stores easily, divides naturally into transactions of various sizes, and carries no serial numbers. In a disrupted economy, these are not minor conveniences. They are the entire ballgame.
You can think of it like this: Gold is a “high-trust” asset in terms of its long-term value, but a “low-trust” asset in a dark alley. If I offer you a gold coin, you have to wonder if I’m scamming you. If I offer you a sealed pack of Marlboros, the “counterparty risk” is almost zero.
In extremis, value migrates toward things that are scarce, portable, and genuinely desired. Gold satisfies the first two. Tobacco, in the right context, satisfies all three. Something to tuck away for future reference. Hopefully never needed. But it has to be said, wealth is only as valuable as your ability to trade it for a sandwich. But do me a favour…don’t stick that in your pipe and smoke it.
Store a lot of fresh water.
We are unequipped to deal with a disruption, no matter how many gold bars or cartons of cigarettes we own.
I’ll use a large scale natural disaster as an example. A hurricane struck the Gulf of America a few years ago. Large sections of the states of Louisiana and Mississippi were without power or transportation. Municipal water treatment systems were down. Wells could not be pumped. Within a few days all stores of potable water had been depleted. Several days thereafter the food ran out. Society quickly broke down in previously quiet suburban enclaves. It got ugly, although the media preferred to concentrate reporting elsewhere.
Based upon my personal experience, I say if you want to be a survivalist put in a lot of solar power, own a few acres, have a source of potable, treatable water and a stash of seeds, etc. Oh, and better have guns and a lot of ammo.
The fact is, most people would not survive. But dream on.
Mark, my guess is Jack Daniels might be a better option than tobacco. In a barter economy I am certain it might be a superior exchange given a lot of folks have given up smoking. Jack Daniels also has an indefinite life span, although it is not quite as portable as cigarettes.
JD is much heavier per unit than Marlboro. But it doesn’t go stale.
Weren’t these the favorite products of the bad captain in Waterworld?
Jack Daniels…I could barter one bottle for some coke and have myself a JD and coke whilst waiting the payment crisis out. Sounds like a good plan ☺️
Sorry Mark, but Gold, Silver, Tobacco etc are useless, unless you like to save gold, and smoke. Amen.
Here’s a data point for you. By 1947, an estimated 50% of all German consumer transactions took place on the black market using cigarettes or other commodities. It’s a historical fact that after the end of the Second World War the German economy essentially ran on tobacco.
Your own US National Archives contains records of the “Tobacco Standard” causing issues for the American military. Because GIs were using their cheap PX cigarettes to buy up German heirlooms and real estate, the US Army had to investigate and eventually restrict cigarette imports to stop the cigarette-based exploitation of the local population.
It’s actually a fascinating case study and worth a few hours of your time if you’re interested in economic history.
Gold can fail as a medium of exchange. That happened in the Bible in Genesis 47:15 during the second year of the seven year famine in Egypt when “the money failed”.
What I think is good store of value is toilet paper. When there’s no more toilet paper you can’t do you know what with a piece of gold.
If I’m a farmer and had a limited amount of food to sell or barter for and had run out of toilet paper and two people come to get food, one has gold and one has a rolls of toilet paper. Which one do you thing is going to get the food? Only thing is toilet paper is bulky, but on the other hand its not heavy and won’t spoil like canned food can.
During the pandemic, when there was hording, what were the two things that disappeared first? Food and toilet paper.
If one needs to cross a border with their wealth, such as a person fleeing a war torn nation, bitcoin provides, by far, the best means. It’s happening all the time but we just don’t realize it here in the U. S. because we are fortunate.
You can’t cross a border without gold being found and confiscated. Any metal detector will find it easily. Ergo, I have no gold bars.
Colored gem stones was the wealth transport of choice for some of my family. Barter for supplies is easier than diamonds (that are too easy to forge). But value will be degraded in an apocalypse. Only good for immediate transport to safety (where there is a safe haven available).
But I go with Andrew Tobias advice in his book, The Only Investment Guide You’ll Ever Need. Canned Tuna and Salmon can be your supplies, can be easily bartered, and are relatively easy to transport, and as a bonus are good inflation hedges.
Surprising for most Americans, a stash of currency is not as good. Could you get out of Dubai today with a pile of USD? nope.
I’m surprised that you didn’t mention liquor. Can be stored indefinitely, addictive etc. Just have to keep your family from drinking it all so it’s there when needed for trading.
You don’t have to barter if you already have what you need. Canned stuff, beans and rice last longer than tobacco.
In a time of such strife, maybe the highest value would be having “seriously dangerous” people your court! In the US with such high levels of gun ownership maybe more so.
An alternative plan might be to get off the grid, a safer location, be self-sufficient and live off the land! Instead of gold buy cabin and a few acres in Alaska or …..? Not sure about the winters though! Every plan has its weak link.
Reacquainting myself with the shadier branches of the family tree would be, at best, an inconvenience. I’ve rather let those relationships lapse, and tracking them down would likely involve a trip to the vicinity of the local courthouse or somewhere with equally robust security arrangements.
Cigarettes go stale after a while. From what I’m seeing 6-12 months. Maybe 2 years under ideal storage conditions (which would be unlikely in a post-apocalyptic scenario).
What about guns, bullets, and butter?
“Send lawyers, guns and money”
Guns won’t do most people much good in terms of food acquisition unless they are robbing their neighbors (for Twinkies). Hunting isn’t exactly a widespread skill in modern society, and I don’t think cows and chickens will just wander into my yard to be harvested.
I do hope somebody hunts down the dog next door, but it won’t be me.
Twinkies last forever
Twinkies and cockroaches will survive Armageddon.
Roasted cockroach on home baked bread with twinkies for dessert?
😋Yummy!
If a payments system failure stretches long enough to spoil tobbocc, we’re firmly in uncharted territory. At that point, converting the ornamental flowerbeds to a vegetable patch and dusting off the hunting rifle starts to look like sound financial planning. Should even that fail, I’d recommend making peace with your inner caveman — he’s been patient long enough, let him free.