According to the Business section of today's NYTimes,so far this year (as of 4 Oct 2026) hedge funds have borrowed $3.7T from banks with a large portion of this used to bet in the stock market. Is this a cause of overvaluation?
Too few officials in Congress are willing to raise the cap on SS taxes. Just raise raise the cap to over $1M or even eliminate it. Less than 20% of people would have to pay more, and it's the 20% who could most afford to pay more. But Congress won't do it.
I have no faith in the political system at the moment. The current composition of Congress could decimate Social Security. A decade ago I would have given a different answer. Today, all bets are off. And this includes for continuity of the regulated financial system which this entire website is predicated on. I'm proceeding as though we will have continuity because there are no alternatives.
"[W]hen we purchase a car, house, piece of art work or some other possession, we’re expecting our future self to live with these possessions and look after them. Will the person we become be happy with the choices we’ve made?" When we choose a long term partner, we don't know how they will change and we don't know how we will change. Or really anything else.
This is very close to our approach. Index stock funds and heavy on gov't backed MM funds (including tax free municipal funds) and treasuries and CDs with maturities less than 2 years. Some with longer maturities out to 20 years, but mostly shorter term. We've very concerned with inflation and want the opportunity to buy back in as rates rise. If we're wrong about rates rising, then we do better.
The article mentions specific years. Another was 2008. I know someone who retired then. Her stocks plummeted, but she also had the double whammy that interest rates were so low that she wasn't getting any income from CDs or treasuries. And a point on market timing. We cannot time stocks. But to some extent, we can time bonds. During the period where interest rates were dropping, this was an obvious trend and it made sense to own bond funds for the capital appreciation. (I owned bond funds and took capital appreciation when rates hit 2%; I should have waited longer, but this proves my point.) Similarly, now with rates rising, I don't see why it makes sense to own bonds funds. It seems to make more sense to own 3, 6, 12 months treasuries and then move back to bond funds when we think rates are topping out.
At this time, income taxes are regressive. Wealthy people take far too many deductions. The top rate is too low. And Social Security taxes shouldn't be capped below $1M.
Comments
According to the Business section of today's NYTimes,so far this year (as of 4 Oct 2026) hedge funds have borrowed $3.7T from banks with a large portion of this used to bet in the stock market. Is this a cause of overvaluation?
Post: The Silent Committee
Link to comment from October 4, 2026
Too few officials in Congress are willing to raise the cap on SS taxes. Just raise raise the cap to over $1M or even eliminate it. Less than 20% of people would have to pay more, and it's the 20% who could most afford to pay more. But Congress won't do it.
Post: Will Congress Wait Until the Last Minute on Social Security?
Link to comment from October 3, 2026
Like children? Please don't malign all children. Plenty of children don't procrastinate. It's a lot of people who are like this. It's not age related.
Post: Will Congress Wait Until the Last Minute on Social Security?
Link to comment from October 3, 2026
I have no faith in the political system at the moment. The current composition of Congress could decimate Social Security. A decade ago I would have given a different answer. Today, all bets are off. And this includes for continuity of the regulated financial system which this entire website is predicated on. I'm proceeding as though we will have continuity because there are no alternatives.
Post: Will Congress Wait Until the Last Minute on Social Security?
Link to comment from October 3, 2026
"[W]hen we purchase a car, house, piece of art work or some other possession, we’re expecting our future self to live with these possessions and look after them. Will the person we become be happy with the choices we’ve made?" When we choose a long term partner, we don't know how they will change and we don't know how we will change. Or really anything else.
Post: Jonathan’s Parting Thoughts: No. 6
Link to comment from October 3, 2026
QYLD and GPIQ?
Post: Is now the time for an annuity?
Link to comment from October 3, 2026
Now let's have a discussion about how renting is superior to owning because there are the landlord's expenses.
Post: Laundered
Link to comment from October 3, 2026
This is very close to our approach. Index stock funds and heavy on gov't backed MM funds (including tax free municipal funds) and treasuries and CDs with maturities less than 2 years. Some with longer maturities out to 20 years, but mostly shorter term. We've very concerned with inflation and want the opportunity to buy back in as rates rise. If we're wrong about rates rising, then we do better.
Post: Why Bonds Matter
Link to comment from October 3, 2026
The article mentions specific years. Another was 2008. I know someone who retired then. Her stocks plummeted, but she also had the double whammy that interest rates were so low that she wasn't getting any income from CDs or treasuries. And a point on market timing. We cannot time stocks. But to some extent, we can time bonds. During the period where interest rates were dropping, this was an obvious trend and it made sense to own bond funds for the capital appreciation. (I owned bond funds and took capital appreciation when rates hit 2%; I should have waited longer, but this proves my point.) Similarly, now with rates rising, I don't see why it makes sense to own bonds funds. It seems to make more sense to own 3, 6, 12 months treasuries and then move back to bond funds when we think rates are topping out.
Post: Why Bonds Matter
Link to comment from October 3, 2026
At this time, income taxes are regressive. Wealthy people take far too many deductions. The top rate is too low. And Social Security taxes shouldn't be capped below $1M.
Post: Shouldn’t property taxes be a realistic part of retirement planning? Sorry, I think this is a major financial and social issue.
Link to comment from September 27, 2026