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Something in the news recently caught my notice and has me wondering. I want to emphasize that I’m not trying to be political, and I would be disappointed if any comments were. As you may know, I’m not even from your country; I’m Irish and live in the UK. So the nuance is beyond me. All that aside, do you think the recent dismissal of the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics should cause me any concern about the future accuracy of US economic data sources? I’m hoping for a non-political analysis, purely from an economic and data integrity standpoint
Apparently, there is an assumption that all of the previous US “official” government data has been accurate and untainted by politics. Even inflation we were told was “transient” and of course there are the myriad covid statistics that were promoted. I’m of the opinion that accuracy in reporting left the barn years ago, as did fair and unbiased news reporting.
Mark: There is an old saying that says, “Figures never lie, but sometimes liars figure.”
The US is not the only country in which political gamesmanship is practiced when reporting economic data, I am sorry to say.
I am not familiar with the UK method of reporting economic data, nor am I concerned about it, but I would guess the same shenanigans occur across the pond as well.
The accuracy of prior reports has been a concern as well…In August 2024, “the Labor Department said monthly payroll figures overstated job growth by roughly 818,000 in the 12 months that ended in March. That suggests employers added about 174,000 jobs per month during that period, down from the previously reported pace of about 242,000 jobs — a downward revision of about 28 percent.” CNBC reported this was the largest adjustment since 2009.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/21/business/economy/us-jobs-economy.html#:~:text=The%20large%20size%20of%20the,revised%20up%20instead%20of%20down.
You can always depend on independent data such as ADP’s payroll report.
We live in a time when every side can twist lies into truths and truths into lies—complete with convincing images to support any narrative. If something is repeated often enough, loudly enough, and with enough emotion, it becomes the accepted reality of the moment. And it will destroy us.