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Why do we save so little? We overestimate the happiness from spending. But with any luck, repeated disappointments will bring wisdom.

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The reality of Social Security and Medicare- My real life experience.

"Do you actually believe that our high school teachers could even explain finances to their students? When I took a college finance course taught by a stockbroker, he said that to compare taxable bond yield to a tax-exempt bond yield, you just double the coupon of the tax-exempt bond yield. Yikes. This was intended to be a comment on Nick's comment."
- Harry Crawford
Read more »

Retirement Toys

"OK, I’m back, and I’ve thought of a couple of “toys” related to our new place. One is that my husband is getting the new bigger, smarter TV he’s been pining for. We decided to leave our current one on the wall for our condo buyers (they were happy to get it). The others are for our new yard. I love grilling and have really missed it during our condo years. I’ve started looking at grills and have seen cool combo ones (gas/charcoal/smoker). I need to do more research but am intrigued. Also, one part of the yard has a nice deck. I’m thinking of a fire table plus some chairs for that. Already have a couple of options bookmarked. The sound system we’re getting with the TV will include outdoor speakers, so I’m imagining fall evenings on the deck…"
- DrLefty
Read more »

Is saving really that hard? Nope, not for the great majority of Americans. 

"Difficult requiring great discipline, yes. Impossibility, no. Simply because some people do it. Don’t focus on the $3,000, that’s an illustration. It’s the concept that is important. Many people earning double the amount claim they can’t save. An 8% return for the stock market is pretty close to the average over the last 50 years."
- R Quinn
Read more »

Investing Fundamentals: A Simple Guide for Beginners

"Excellent article. Now let’s forward it to our young relatives and friends who have limited attention spans."
- Nick Politakis
Read more »

Ageing and the Open Road

RECENTLY I TOOK a free ride on a driverless bus trialling its proposed route, part of my local administration's ten-year rollout plan for self-driving public transport and taxis. I see real potential in this technology, and I'm hoping the infrastructure and implementation stay on schedule. That hope is mostly selfish, I'll admit. In fifteen years I'll be in my mid-seventies, and I'd love to ditch my car and rely on cheap, dependable robo-taxis instead. It would give me freedom precisely in that decade of life when driving starts to become genuinely problematic. I'm planning to change my car in 2027 for a modern hybrid, but in the back of my mind is the thought that it could be my last. If the self-driving rollout hits its targets, I can see the case for never buying another. The advantages for someone in my demographic at that stage of life would be hard to argue with. Think about what car ownership actually costs. There's the purchase price, insurance, road tax, fuel, servicing, tyres, and the occasional bill that arrives like a punch to the stomach. For most people, a car is the second most expensive thing they own after their home. In retirement, when income typically drops and budgets tighten, that ongoing drain becomes harder to justify. This is especially true when the car spends the vast majority of its time sitting on a driveway looking pretty. A robo-taxi model, where you pay only for the journeys you actually take, could represent a dramatic shift in how much personal transport really costs. The numbers, I suspect, will be compelling — with current estimates from real world operations suggesting an 80% reduction in the cost of fares being achievable. Then there's the question of independence. This is the one that matters most to me personally, and I'd imagine it resonates with anyone approaching or already in their later years. Giving up your car keys is one of those milestones that nobody really talks about, but everyone in that demographic understands. It represents a loss of spontaneity and self-sufficiency that can genuinely affect quality of life. The difference with autonomous vehicles is that surrendering the wheel doesn't have to mean surrendering the freedom. A reliable, affordable self-driving taxi available on demand restores something that previous generations simply had to go without once driving became difficult. This could be a trip to the supermarket on a weekday morning or a late evening visit to family. The safety dimension is also worth considering. Reaction times slow as we age. Night vision deteriorates. Concentration over long distances becomes harder. Most older drivers are aware of this and manage it carefully, but there comes a point for everyone where the road becomes a source of anxiety rather than freedom. Autonomous vehicles remove that calculation entirely. You get in, state your destination, and arrive, without the cognitive load of navigating, anticipating other drivers, or worrying whether your responses are still sharp enough. That peace of mind shouldn't be underestimated. There are wider social benefits too. Older people who can no longer drive are disproportionately affected by isolation. Poor rural transport links, infrequent bus services, and the general assumption that everyone has access to a car all contribute to a situation where many retired people find their world gradually shrinking. Autonomous vehicles, particularly if integrated intelligently with existing public transport, have the potential to reverse that. A robo-taxi that can be summoned by a smartphone, or even a simple voice command, could keep people connected to their communities, their families, and their routines far longer than is currently possible. There are, of course, reasons to be cautious. Technology rollouts rarely go entirely to plan. The ten-year schedule my local administration is working to is ambitious, and a lot can change in funding priorities, in public appetite, and in the regulatory environment. The early trials are promising, but promising trials and full-scale dependable infrastructure are very different things. It's worth keeping in mind, with a groan inducing pun: your mileage will vary — literally. Dense urban and suburban areas will almost certainly see reliable services first, and I'm fortunate that describes my situation. For those in more rural communities, the very people for whom isolation is already the sharpest problem, the wait could be considerably longer. I'm hopeful, but I'm not banking on it entirely. Which is why the 2027 hybrid still makes sense. It's a practical hedge, a good, modern, efficient car that will serve me well through the transition years, whatever pace that transition takes. But the fact that I'm already thinking of it as potentially my last car feels significant. A decade ago that thought wouldn't have crossed my mind. The technology has moved from science fiction to credible near-future fast enough to genuinely reshape how I'm thinking about retirement planning. If it delivers, the generation hitting their seventies in the late 2030s could be the first in history for whom ageing and mobility don't have to be in conflict. That's not a small thing. That might turn out to be one of the most personally transformative shifts of the entire autonomous vehicle revolution. It is not about the flashy early adopters or the logistics industry efficiencies. Instead, it is the simple dignity of an older person getting where they need to go, independently, on their own terms. I'm hopeful I'll be taking that ride and certain my children and grandchildren definitely will.
Mark Crothers is a retired small business owner from the UK with a keen interest in personal finance and simple living. Married to his high school sweetheart, with daughters and grandchildren, he knows the importance of building a secure financial future. With an aversion to social media, he prefers to spend his time on his main passions: reading, scratch cooking, racket sports, and hiking.
Read more »

Tax Free Income Trap, Dealing With MAGI

"Agree! When it comes to Roth conversions, tax arbitrage is usually the focus of discussion, but “portfolio return“ arbitrage (if that’s a proper term?) is usually less mentioned."
- Andy Morrison
Read more »

A Life You Build

"Jeff, That is an incredible article. One of if not the best HD articles I’ve ever read.That moved me. As I was reading I was thinking to mention a couple of the most inspiring takeaways you included but there were so many. Thank you so much for taking the time to write and share this piece with the HD community. Ideally, I hope this reaches way beyond HD. Well done on your life’s journey and well done capturing it here!"
- Andy Morrison
Read more »

Blood Money

"On April 30 (with WTI closing at $105.07/bbl.) I sold another 10% of my XOM shares @ $154.413 (up nicely from it mid-month low of $146.44). Plan is to continue selling next month."
- mflack
Read more »

New Face, old scam

"Thanks. Good to see you contributing again."
- Jeff Bond
Read more »

How Far Behind is the IRS?

"My mother died in 2021 and we were due a significant refund on 2020 taxes due to medical expenses. We filed on time but it took two years and mutiple phone calls to resolve it. This was before the Trump cuts. Nothing moved until Biden pumped $80 million more into their budget. Before they woukd not even answer the phone. my only advice is to call every 2 months, take names and badge numbers and if no result call again. one agent told me they had everything they needed but nothing happened. Two months later calling back I wastold they needed X form and the lady stood by the fax machine when I faxed it. The refund arrived in two weeks. oh and keep a joint bank acvout open with mom so they can send the money there even if she passes and you can withdraw it"
- Concerned
Read more »

First Place

"I've driven that stretch of road from the north, after a hiking trip to Humboldt Redwoods and Sinkyone on the coast. Very beautiful."
- Edmund Marsh
Read more »

Wall Street Trap

IN THE INVESTMENT world, May 1st is a notable day. It was on May 1, 1975 that the Securities and Exchange Commission deregulated the brokerage industry. For the 183 years prior to that, trading commissions on the New York Stock Exchange had been fixed at uniformly high rates. But when deregulation arrived, competition got going. That’s when discount brokers like Charles Schwab got rolling, and over time, May Day, as it’s now referred to, has delivered enormous savings to consumers. More than 50 years later, though, Wall Street still operates in ways that are often at odds with consumer interests. As an individual investor, what are the obstacles to be aware of? At the top of the list is Wall Street’s fixation with individual stocks. For almost 100 years, the data has been clear that stock-picking is counterproductive. Probably the first to uncover this was a fellow named Alfred Cowles. Cowles came from a wealthy family and wondered whether the investment advice his family had been receiving was worthwhile. He set about answering that question and in 1933, published a paper titled “Can Stock Market Forecasters Forecast?” Cowles’s conclusion: They can’t. More recently, research by finance professors Brad Barber and Terrance Odean came to a similar conclusion. The title of their most well known paper is self-explanatory: “Trading Is Hazardous to Your Wealth.”  Along the same lines, Standard & Poor’s regularly examines actively-managed mutual funds to see how many are able to outperform the overall market. The most recent finding: Over the past 10 years, fewer than 15% of funds benchmarked to the S&P 500 managed to beat the index. Research by Jeff Ptak at Morningstar has found that the more active a fund is, the worse it performs. So-called tactical funds, which shift among different asset classes in response to economic forecasts have, in Ptak’s words, “incinerated” shareholder dollars. This data is fairly well known. The problem, though, is that trading activity generates revenue for the brokerage industry, so it has an interest in keeping investors engaged with the market. That’s why brokerage analysts are on TV every day, offering their forecasts for individual stocks, for the overall market and for the broader economy. To be sure, this makes for interesting television. The problem, though, is that it’s been shown to carry almost no value. According to research by Joachim Klement, the accuracy of Wall Street prognosticators is approximately zero. Why are they so poor at forecasting? For starters, there’s the simple fact that no one has a crystal ball. No one can know what a company—or its competitors—will do a month or a year from now, and how that will translate into stock price gains or losses. Sociologist Ezra Zuckerman Sivan uncovered a more subtle explanation. In research published after the technology selloff in 2000, Sivan found that Wall Street analysts are constrained by two obstacles. The first is that they’re dependent on access to companies’ management teams to help in their research. For that reason, it’s in their interest to maintain positive relationships with the companies that they follow. Investment banks that take a positive view on a company may also be rewarded with profitable mergers or acquisitions work when the need arises. Those factors bias stock recommendations overwhelmingly in the direction of “buy” ratings. Another reason analysts tend to avoid negative comments about the companies they cover: Sivan found that there is a community effect that tends to form among the analysts assigned to a given company, and thus an incentive develops to not “rock the boat” in saying anything too critical. People generally want to get along, and that results in a sort of self-censorship. This research is well understood, and yet Wall Street continues to generate forecasts day after day, year after year. Why? There are two explanations, I believe. The first is that it’s entertaining. I’ll be the first to acknowledge that index funds aren’t terribly interesting to talk about. It’s far more interesting to talk about smartphones or AI and the companies behind them. That makes Wall Street analysts invaluable to the media, who need to fill airtime.  And as long as they’re granted that airtime, forecasters are of great value to the brokerage industry. Since trading activity is profitable for Wall Street, it’s in brokers’ interest to generate continued interest in stocks. That brings in commission dollars for brokers. And even though commissions have shrunk in recent years, brokers benefit in other ways from active trading, including the “bid-ask spread” on each trade. That’s the difference between what buyers pay and what sellers receive, and though these spreads are tiny, they add up for the brokers who collect them. For good reason, then, Wall Street continues to promote stock-picking. At the same time, the investment industry is always busy developing new funds. In the first half of last year, for example, fund companies rolled out more than 640 new funds. Among them: funds that hold single stocks with varying degrees of leverage and other seemingly unnecessary new formulations. The result: There are now many more funds than there are stocks trading on U.S. exchanges.  Many of these new funds follow ever more esoteric strategies. They’re often opaque. And almost invariably, they carry higher fees. In a 2011 study titled “The Dark Side of Financial Innovation,” finance professor Brian Henderson and a colleague looked at one popular category of fund known as a structured product. Their conclusion: These funds were overpriced to the point that their expected return was actually a bit below zero. How were they able to market such an inferior product? Henderson’s hypothesis was that the fund companies designed them to be intentionally as complex as possible in order to exploit individual investors. The bottom line: To a great degree, Wall Street is upside down. But as an individual investor, you don’t have to be. My rule of thumb: In building a portfolio, investors should do more or less the opposite of what Wall Street recommends. That, I believe, is a reliable formula for success.   Adam M. Grossman is the founder of Mayport, a fixed-fee wealth management firm. Sign up for Adam's Daily Ideas email, follow him on X @AdamMGrossman and check out his earlier articles.
Read more »

The reality of Social Security and Medicare- My real life experience.

"Do you actually believe that our high school teachers could even explain finances to their students? When I took a college finance course taught by a stockbroker, he said that to compare taxable bond yield to a tax-exempt bond yield, you just double the coupon of the tax-exempt bond yield. Yikes. This was intended to be a comment on Nick's comment."
- Harry Crawford
Read more »

Retirement Toys

"OK, I’m back, and I’ve thought of a couple of “toys” related to our new place. One is that my husband is getting the new bigger, smarter TV he’s been pining for. We decided to leave our current one on the wall for our condo buyers (they were happy to get it). The others are for our new yard. I love grilling and have really missed it during our condo years. I’ve started looking at grills and have seen cool combo ones (gas/charcoal/smoker). I need to do more research but am intrigued. Also, one part of the yard has a nice deck. I’m thinking of a fire table plus some chairs for that. Already have a couple of options bookmarked. The sound system we’re getting with the TV will include outdoor speakers, so I’m imagining fall evenings on the deck…"
- DrLefty
Read more »

Is saving really that hard? Nope, not for the great majority of Americans. 

"Difficult requiring great discipline, yes. Impossibility, no. Simply because some people do it. Don’t focus on the $3,000, that’s an illustration. It’s the concept that is important. Many people earning double the amount claim they can’t save. An 8% return for the stock market is pretty close to the average over the last 50 years."
- R Quinn
Read more »

Investing Fundamentals: A Simple Guide for Beginners

"Excellent article. Now let’s forward it to our young relatives and friends who have limited attention spans."
- Nick Politakis
Read more »

Ageing and the Open Road

RECENTLY I TOOK a free ride on a driverless bus trialling its proposed route, part of my local administration's ten-year rollout plan for self-driving public transport and taxis. I see real potential in this technology, and I'm hoping the infrastructure and implementation stay on schedule. That hope is mostly selfish, I'll admit. In fifteen years I'll be in my mid-seventies, and I'd love to ditch my car and rely on cheap, dependable robo-taxis instead. It would give me freedom precisely in that decade of life when driving starts to become genuinely problematic. I'm planning to change my car in 2027 for a modern hybrid, but in the back of my mind is the thought that it could be my last. If the self-driving rollout hits its targets, I can see the case for never buying another. The advantages for someone in my demographic at that stage of life would be hard to argue with. Think about what car ownership actually costs. There's the purchase price, insurance, road tax, fuel, servicing, tyres, and the occasional bill that arrives like a punch to the stomach. For most people, a car is the second most expensive thing they own after their home. In retirement, when income typically drops and budgets tighten, that ongoing drain becomes harder to justify. This is especially true when the car spends the vast majority of its time sitting on a driveway looking pretty. A robo-taxi model, where you pay only for the journeys you actually take, could represent a dramatic shift in how much personal transport really costs. The numbers, I suspect, will be compelling — with current estimates from real world operations suggesting an 80% reduction in the cost of fares being achievable. Then there's the question of independence. This is the one that matters most to me personally, and I'd imagine it resonates with anyone approaching or already in their later years. Giving up your car keys is one of those milestones that nobody really talks about, but everyone in that demographic understands. It represents a loss of spontaneity and self-sufficiency that can genuinely affect quality of life. The difference with autonomous vehicles is that surrendering the wheel doesn't have to mean surrendering the freedom. A reliable, affordable self-driving taxi available on demand restores something that previous generations simply had to go without once driving became difficult. This could be a trip to the supermarket on a weekday morning or a late evening visit to family. The safety dimension is also worth considering. Reaction times slow as we age. Night vision deteriorates. Concentration over long distances becomes harder. Most older drivers are aware of this and manage it carefully, but there comes a point for everyone where the road becomes a source of anxiety rather than freedom. Autonomous vehicles remove that calculation entirely. You get in, state your destination, and arrive, without the cognitive load of navigating, anticipating other drivers, or worrying whether your responses are still sharp enough. That peace of mind shouldn't be underestimated. There are wider social benefits too. Older people who can no longer drive are disproportionately affected by isolation. Poor rural transport links, infrequent bus services, and the general assumption that everyone has access to a car all contribute to a situation where many retired people find their world gradually shrinking. Autonomous vehicles, particularly if integrated intelligently with existing public transport, have the potential to reverse that. A robo-taxi that can be summoned by a smartphone, or even a simple voice command, could keep people connected to their communities, their families, and their routines far longer than is currently possible. There are, of course, reasons to be cautious. Technology rollouts rarely go entirely to plan. The ten-year schedule my local administration is working to is ambitious, and a lot can change in funding priorities, in public appetite, and in the regulatory environment. The early trials are promising, but promising trials and full-scale dependable infrastructure are very different things. It's worth keeping in mind, with a groan inducing pun: your mileage will vary — literally. Dense urban and suburban areas will almost certainly see reliable services first, and I'm fortunate that describes my situation. For those in more rural communities, the very people for whom isolation is already the sharpest problem, the wait could be considerably longer. I'm hopeful, but I'm not banking on it entirely. Which is why the 2027 hybrid still makes sense. It's a practical hedge, a good, modern, efficient car that will serve me well through the transition years, whatever pace that transition takes. But the fact that I'm already thinking of it as potentially my last car feels significant. A decade ago that thought wouldn't have crossed my mind. The technology has moved from science fiction to credible near-future fast enough to genuinely reshape how I'm thinking about retirement planning. If it delivers, the generation hitting their seventies in the late 2030s could be the first in history for whom ageing and mobility don't have to be in conflict. That's not a small thing. That might turn out to be one of the most personally transformative shifts of the entire autonomous vehicle revolution. It is not about the flashy early adopters or the logistics industry efficiencies. Instead, it is the simple dignity of an older person getting where they need to go, independently, on their own terms. I'm hopeful I'll be taking that ride and certain my children and grandchildren definitely will.
Mark Crothers is a retired small business owner from the UK with a keen interest in personal finance and simple living. Married to his high school sweetheart, with daughters and grandchildren, he knows the importance of building a secure financial future. With an aversion to social media, he prefers to spend his time on his main passions: reading, scratch cooking, racket sports, and hiking.
Read more »

Tax Free Income Trap, Dealing With MAGI

"Agree! When it comes to Roth conversions, tax arbitrage is usually the focus of discussion, but “portfolio return“ arbitrage (if that’s a proper term?) is usually less mentioned."
- Andy Morrison
Read more »

A Life You Build

"Jeff, That is an incredible article. One of if not the best HD articles I’ve ever read.That moved me. As I was reading I was thinking to mention a couple of the most inspiring takeaways you included but there were so many. Thank you so much for taking the time to write and share this piece with the HD community. Ideally, I hope this reaches way beyond HD. Well done on your life’s journey and well done capturing it here!"
- Andy Morrison
Read more »

Blood Money

"On April 30 (with WTI closing at $105.07/bbl.) I sold another 10% of my XOM shares @ $154.413 (up nicely from it mid-month low of $146.44). Plan is to continue selling next month."
- mflack
Read more »

Wall Street Trap

IN THE INVESTMENT world, May 1st is a notable day. It was on May 1, 1975 that the Securities and Exchange Commission deregulated the brokerage industry. For the 183 years prior to that, trading commissions on the New York Stock Exchange had been fixed at uniformly high rates. But when deregulation arrived, competition got going. That’s when discount brokers like Charles Schwab got rolling, and over time, May Day, as it’s now referred to, has delivered enormous savings to consumers. More than 50 years later, though, Wall Street still operates in ways that are often at odds with consumer interests. As an individual investor, what are the obstacles to be aware of? At the top of the list is Wall Street’s fixation with individual stocks. For almost 100 years, the data has been clear that stock-picking is counterproductive. Probably the first to uncover this was a fellow named Alfred Cowles. Cowles came from a wealthy family and wondered whether the investment advice his family had been receiving was worthwhile. He set about answering that question and in 1933, published a paper titled “Can Stock Market Forecasters Forecast?” Cowles’s conclusion: They can’t. More recently, research by finance professors Brad Barber and Terrance Odean came to a similar conclusion. The title of their most well known paper is self-explanatory: “Trading Is Hazardous to Your Wealth.”  Along the same lines, Standard & Poor’s regularly examines actively-managed mutual funds to see how many are able to outperform the overall market. The most recent finding: Over the past 10 years, fewer than 15% of funds benchmarked to the S&P 500 managed to beat the index. Research by Jeff Ptak at Morningstar has found that the more active a fund is, the worse it performs. So-called tactical funds, which shift among different asset classes in response to economic forecasts have, in Ptak’s words, “incinerated” shareholder dollars. This data is fairly well known. The problem, though, is that trading activity generates revenue for the brokerage industry, so it has an interest in keeping investors engaged with the market. That’s why brokerage analysts are on TV every day, offering their forecasts for individual stocks, for the overall market and for the broader economy. To be sure, this makes for interesting television. The problem, though, is that it’s been shown to carry almost no value. According to research by Joachim Klement, the accuracy of Wall Street prognosticators is approximately zero. Why are they so poor at forecasting? For starters, there’s the simple fact that no one has a crystal ball. No one can know what a company—or its competitors—will do a month or a year from now, and how that will translate into stock price gains or losses. Sociologist Ezra Zuckerman Sivan uncovered a more subtle explanation. In research published after the technology selloff in 2000, Sivan found that Wall Street analysts are constrained by two obstacles. The first is that they’re dependent on access to companies’ management teams to help in their research. For that reason, it’s in their interest to maintain positive relationships with the companies that they follow. Investment banks that take a positive view on a company may also be rewarded with profitable mergers or acquisitions work when the need arises. Those factors bias stock recommendations overwhelmingly in the direction of “buy” ratings. Another reason analysts tend to avoid negative comments about the companies they cover: Sivan found that there is a community effect that tends to form among the analysts assigned to a given company, and thus an incentive develops to not “rock the boat” in saying anything too critical. People generally want to get along, and that results in a sort of self-censorship. This research is well understood, and yet Wall Street continues to generate forecasts day after day, year after year. Why? There are two explanations, I believe. The first is that it’s entertaining. I’ll be the first to acknowledge that index funds aren’t terribly interesting to talk about. It’s far more interesting to talk about smartphones or AI and the companies behind them. That makes Wall Street analysts invaluable to the media, who need to fill airtime.  And as long as they’re granted that airtime, forecasters are of great value to the brokerage industry. Since trading activity is profitable for Wall Street, it’s in brokers’ interest to generate continued interest in stocks. That brings in commission dollars for brokers. And even though commissions have shrunk in recent years, brokers benefit in other ways from active trading, including the “bid-ask spread” on each trade. That’s the difference between what buyers pay and what sellers receive, and though these spreads are tiny, they add up for the brokers who collect them. For good reason, then, Wall Street continues to promote stock-picking. At the same time, the investment industry is always busy developing new funds. In the first half of last year, for example, fund companies rolled out more than 640 new funds. Among them: funds that hold single stocks with varying degrees of leverage and other seemingly unnecessary new formulations. The result: There are now many more funds than there are stocks trading on U.S. exchanges.  Many of these new funds follow ever more esoteric strategies. They’re often opaque. And almost invariably, they carry higher fees. In a 2011 study titled “The Dark Side of Financial Innovation,” finance professor Brian Henderson and a colleague looked at one popular category of fund known as a structured product. Their conclusion: These funds were overpriced to the point that their expected return was actually a bit below zero. How were they able to market such an inferior product? Henderson’s hypothesis was that the fund companies designed them to be intentionally as complex as possible in order to exploit individual investors. The bottom line: To a great degree, Wall Street is upside down. But as an individual investor, you don’t have to be. My rule of thumb: In building a portfolio, investors should do more or less the opposite of what Wall Street recommends. That, I believe, is a reliable formula for success.   Adam M. Grossman is the founder of Mayport, a fixed-fee wealth management firm. Sign up for Adam's Daily Ideas email, follow him on X @AdamMGrossman and check out his earlier articles.
Read more »

Free Newsletter

Get Educated

Manifesto

NO. 52: WE SHOULD aim to become homeowners—not because homes deliver handsome capital gains, but because owning locks in our housing costs and, with every mortgage payment, forces us to save.

Truths

NO. 111: WALL STREET tries never to send us a bill, so we’re unaware of how much we’re paying. Fund expenses and financial advisor fees are quietly subtracted throughout the year. Stock trading spreads and bond markups are built into security prices. Load mutual fund commissions are swiped from our initial investment or they're deducted when we sell.

act

GO TO THE LIBRARY. You can borrow DVDs, rather than paying to stream movies and TV shows. You can cancel your magazine and newspaper subscriptions, and peruse the library’s periodicals instead. You can borrow the latest books, rather than ordering from Amazon. All this will get you out of the house, meeting your neighbors and reading more—at no cost.

think

EVOLUTIONARY psychology. Why are we so fearful of losses, so bad at saving money and always hankering for more material goods? Evolutionary psychology explains such behavior by identifying the traits that helped our nomadic ancestors to survive. These hardwired instincts often hurt us in today’s world—and it can take great mental effort to overcome them.

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Manifesto

NO. 52: WE SHOULD aim to become homeowners—not because homes deliver handsome capital gains, but because owning locks in our housing costs and, with every mortgage payment, forces us to save.

Spotlight: College

Quinn ponders the College Conundrum

Connie and I had four children between July 1970 and September 1975. That was a fun decade especially given I was going to school three nights a week until 1978 when after nine years I received a degree.
Those fun times were only surpassed by the ten years when we had one, two or three children in college at once. Our oldest went to Carnegie Mellon on a required five-year program and the others all went to Franklin and Marshall –

Read more »

An Educated Choice

WHEN I WAS YOUNG and unschooled about money, I borrowed thousands of dollars to attend Northwestern University. As I recall, tuition was around $12,000 a year in 1980, and I had only $3,000 to my name. How could I pay?
The dean sent me a letter explaining that the college would lend me the money for my master’s degree in journalism. It would also extend me a work-study job, which would help pay for my spartan off-campus room.

Read more »

The Student Trap

NOT ALL DEBT IS created equal—and that’s especially true when it comes to student loans.
For the vast majority of debt, we can calculate the ongoing monthly payment if we know the interest rate, number of payment periods, current balance and if the payment is due at the beginning or end of the period. But for federal student loans, we may need to know one more variable: the borrower’s discretionary income.
With federal student loans,

Read more »

Games Colleges Play

WHEN OUR KIDS applied to colleges, the smallest detail of each campus visit mattered a lot. If our daughter admired the student leading our tour, the school skyrocketed in her estimation. If the class our son attended to “get a feel for the place” turned out to be a test period, Grandpa’s alma mater was forever struck from consideration.
In economic terms, the college decision features asymmetric information. Colleges know a lot about us from our detailed personal and financial applications.

Read more »

College Math

WHAT’S THE REAL PRICE? In September, I wrote about the potential tab for sending our first child to college in 2025. The four-year cost was estimated at anywhere from $65,000 to $430,000, depending on the college chosen.
This wild disparity led me to conclude that college financial planning was like saving to buy a car—when you don’t know if you’ll drive off the lot in a Honda or a Lamborghini.
Since then, I’ve tried to put a sharper pencil to college costs.

Read more »

College Crapshoot

A LIFE OF FRUGALITY might mean your children graduate college debt-free, which is a major accomplishment. But what about your happy-go-lucky neighbors, who spent every dime they earned and never saved for college?
At issue here is the Free Application for Federal Student Aid (FAFSA), which is the basis for the all-important expected family contribution (EFC). The whole thing can seem like one big crapshoot, as I can now attest.
The EFC may determine that your spendthrift neighbors’ kids also get to graduate debt-free.

Read more »

Spotlight: Sayler

Path to Retirement

SOME FRIENDS WERE recently discussing their investment performance. I couldn’t contribute to the conversation—because I have no idea what our investment returns have been. The fact is, I don’t find performance information all that valuable, plus it’s relatively hard to calculate since you have to account for both price changes and dividend or interest payments. To be sure, investment returns are useful if you’re looking to determine whether a mutual fund manager is adding returns in excess of a benchmark index, also known as generating alpha. But since I invest mainly in index mutual funds and exchange-traded index funds, I’m not expecting to achieve any alpha. Moreover, folks don’t spend investment returns. Instead, what they spend are dollars. I can have terrific returns, but if I don’t have much invested, it won’t amount to much. So how do I track our financial progress? Every year, I calculate the net worth—all financial accounts minus all debt—for my wife and me. I then take that figure, and look at measures that assess net worth or total savings as a multiple of your salary. Different financial firms have slightly different guidelines. For instance, as you can see from the accompanying chart, T. Rowe Price says that 45-year-olds should have financial assets that are two to four times their annual salary. Savings benchmarks are also available from Fidelity Investments and in Charles Farrell's book Your Money Ratios. The idea behind these measures: Your net worth or total savings should hit the various age milestones—and, if it does, you’re on track to retire in comfort in your 60s. HumbleDollar’s Two-Minute Checkup uses a similar methodology to assess a user’s “financial fitness.” Even though I have no idea what our investment returns have been, I can track our net worth as a multiple of our salaries, and…
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Mutual Admiration

LIKE MANY PEOPLE who read HumbleDollar, I greatly respect Warren Buffett’s opinions and insights. I’ve even attended Berkshire Hathaway’s annual shareholder meeting in Omaha. Now that it’s broadcast, I reserve the Saturday of the meeting to watch it on the web. Seeing it from a distance means I miss out on the terrific deals various Berkshire companies offer shareholders who attend in person. By attending virtually, however, I don’t have to navigate the crowds or spend six hours driving to Omaha and another six hours returning home. I almost always spend the entire meeting nodding in agreement with the comments made by Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway Vice Chairman Charlie Munger. This year’s meeting started similarly. Then I heard an opinion with which I disagreed. During a question about Berkshire’s insurance company, Geico, Buffett said something that jolted me from my chair and had me shouting at the monitor. What could cause such an outburst? When speaking of Geico’s competitor, State Farm Insurance, Buffett said, “The largest auto insurance company in the United States was started over in Illinois by a guy who didn’t know anything about insurance particularly. And it’s a mutual company. It’s not supposed to succeed in capitalism.” Not succeed in capitalism? These words startled me because I’ve always been a huge believer in cooperatives and mutual companies. The reason goes back to my early childhood. I first learned about cooperatives when I was a young boy visiting my grandfather’s farm. My father made sure to fill our car with gas at the local co-op. Why? Grandpa would get back some of the money we’d spent in the annual dividend payment made to the co-op’s members at year-end. What a great idea, I thought. Local farmers had banded together to purchase costly goods at wholesale prices. Why should…
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Famous Last Words

YOU PROBABLY RECALL many firsts: Your first car, your first kiss, maybe even the first stock you purchased. Firsts are exciting. Firsts are easy to demark. You’ve never purchased an item before, so—when you do purchase it—it’s a first. By contrast, lasts sneak up on you. There’s always a chance that you’ll replace an item one more time. My wife has caused me to start thinking about my lasts. This winter, my 36-year-old winter mittens finally wore out. In fairness, it was the outer mitten that wore out. I’d earlier replaced the wool liners three times. When I went looking for a new pair, I was startled by the $80 price tag. My wife said, “Don’t worry about the cost. This will be the last pair you’ll ever buy.” That shocked me. But realistically, in 36 years, I’ll be replacing this pair of mittens when I’m age 98. Assuming that I’m still around, I’m less likely to be doing winter camping or walking the dog in the dead of winter, so she’s probably correct. This will be my last pair of mittens. Our 26-year-old CRT television finally wore out. The replacement TV I purchase may be the last TV I’ll ever buy. If a new one lasts as long as my old one, I’ll be age 88 when it’s time to get a replacement. True, the odds are a bit better that I’ll need a new TV than a new pair of mittens—but not much. It can be a bit depressing to count down your life by the list of things that you’ll never need to purchase again. Still, I disagree with my wife on one item. She has said that our current dog will be my last dog. I’m only willing to concede that he will be the last…
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Predictably Wrong

I DON’T USUALLY FOLLOW the NFL. But this year, I’ve made an exception—because the current season offers a valuable lesson not just for football fans, but also for investors. Teams devote huge amounts of time, energy and money to determining who’s the best quarterback for their team. Yet, this year, three quarterbacks are leading their teams when most experts, who get paid to evaluate talent, didn’t give them much of a chance. Brock Purdy leads the San Francisco 49ers. He was the 2022 NFL draft’s 262nd and final pick, and became a third-string quarterback. As a rookie last year, due to injuries to the team’s two other quarterbacks, he was elevated to starter and took the 49ers to the NFC Championship game. Joshua Dobbs was the 2017 draft’s 135th pick, as well as the seventh quarterback to be selected. In seven years in the NFL, he’s bounced among seven teams, meaning the first six teams looked at him and decided they had better options. He started a total of 11 games for three teams. This season, only four days after being traded to Minnesota, he led the Vikings to victory over the Atlanta Falcons. It's not clear whether he'll remain the starting quarterback. Finally, Aidan O’Connell was the 2023 draft’s 135th pick. He was the third-string quarterback for the Las Vegas Raiders this season until injuries to the two other quarterbacks meant he got the starting position, and he won his first two games. To be sure, folks evaluating quarterbacks selected each of these players in the NFL draft. There are more than 250 Division I football teams and only 32 NFL teams, so just being selected says that the teams thought these quarterbacks were better than many of their college peers. What does any of this have to do…
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What’s Your History?

WE ALL LIVE IN the same economy, but we experience it differently. How we react to today’s economic developments is heavily influenced by our upbringing and world events at that time. This is a key insight from the first chapter of Morgan Housel’s wonderful book The Psychology of Money. I can think of three things that have shaped my outlook—and lead me to a very different outlook from my children. First, my father grew up on a farm during the Great Depression. He never spoke about how hard it was. But one of my father's favorite evening snacks was a bowl of popcorn with milk on it. While I thought that was peculiar—nobody else I knew had that for a snack—I learned from my mother that one winter that was all my father’s family had for supper every evening. They had a cow for milk and excess popcorn they hadn’t sold. One result of this story: During my working years, I saved a healthy portion of my income to make sure that my children always had enough food, and we would never have to eat popcorn with milk for dinner. Second, I went to high school in the 1970s. That had a dual impact. Although my father kept his job, the news was filled with accounts of 50-year-old men getting laid off because, during that time, it seemed all the jobs were moving to Japan. I grew up knowing that no job is forever, and you may not have a chance to decide when you retire. This further reinforced my tendency toward thrift. The other big economic development in the 1970s was inflation. I’ve written about how I invest in Series I savings bonds, and it’s because I remember what double-digit inflation can do to the cost of living. The…
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Missing Out

A FRIEND ASKED ME if I was buying cryptocurrencies or nonfungible tokens. When I replied that I was not, my friend asked if I was afraid that I was missing out on the investment of a lifetime. That got me thinking about three great investments where I did indeed miss out. First, in 1981, some young engineers were sitting around talking about what we should invest in. One fellow said he was going to buy a share of Berkshire Hathaway, which was then selling for about $500, equal to a week’s salary. In my wisdom, I said that the stock had performed superbly, but CEO Warren Buffett was 51-years-old and unlikely to stick around much longer. In fact, he’d probably have to retire when he turned 65, a scant 14 years hence. One share of Berkshire Hathaway (symbol: BRK-A) now costs almost $500,000, for an annual return of about 18%. Had I invested the money in an S&P 500-index fund, the price appreciation would have been about 9%. I could add a few percent to the S&P’s return to account for dividends. Still, I clearly missed out on a great stock purchase—and, unfortunately, I didn’t even invest in an S&P 500 fund. More on that later. Next up: In 1990, feeling like I’d missed one great stock picker, I chose another. I purchased Fidelity Magellan Fund. While people today pay zero trading costs, I paid Fidelity a 3% load, or commission, to invest with the great Peter Lynch. Sadly, two months after I purchased the fund, Lynch decided to retire. I never saw the great returns that Magellan had earned in its early years. Note that Lynch was only age 44 when he retired. That’s seven years younger than Buffett was when I was concerned that he would retire. My…
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