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How long will we live? Based on an article I just read, I’m guessing that it is probably longer than we think. Here’s why.
The authors pointed out that statistics (and I suspect my intuition) are based on death rates, which only take into account the people who have…wait for it…already died. Those still alive are living longer than they used to, based on the trend of longer, healthier life that has persisted up until now.
My favorite simple estimating tool is the single life expectancy table from the IRS. It was recently revised upward. (The IRS makes it hard to link, but lots of people republish it.)
Then there are the life expectancy calculators. You can ask your favorite AI model, “What is the most accurate life expectancy calculator?”
Project Big Life is Canada-specific, but I like that it adjusts my life expectancy as I answer the questions. It rated me down three years because of my BMI (body mass index) to 89, which matches the single life expectancy table.
Living to 100 calculator asks detailed health questions and gave me two more years to 91.
John Hancock had a simple calculator and gave me 95 years. The Life Expectancy Project was even simpler, but also gave me the lowest estimate at 87 years.
So how long do you think you will live and why? I somehow forgot that I’ve been diagnosed with cancer since I last looked at this question, and I have no idea how that will impact my actual life expectancy. But all these estimates seem to expect me to live around another 20 years. I hope some of those are pretty good years!
If you’re willing to do a bit of work, you can get a sense of how family genetics might give you a longevity tailwind or headwind on top of luck and lifestyle (diet, exercise, job etc).
Average longevity varies by birth year cohort so you can’t just look at the average age at death of your ancestors, but that’s a good start. You have to calculate the average difference between your ancestors’ age at death and the longevity of their birth year cohort. I’d weight more heavily the results for nearer ancestors, like parents and grandparents, than ones deeper in your family tree because you carry more of that DNA.
The single biggest factor impacting longevity, after luck, is consistent aerobic exercise plus some regular strength training for resilience and stability. The book Younger Next Year makes the case and has helpful advice.
Based on family history, my mom is 101 & still alive, and dad died when he was 97. BUT, they live in our home land, while I came to America as a 16 years old & have been living on the America diet, plus a high stress professional for 40+ years. I would feel very lucky if I live to be 85.
I always found the best use of longevity calculations is to play with them. I learned that smoking and wearing your seatbelt affect the length of the time that you will live the most!
No one really knows, you can use averages, but every BODY is different. I go by my parents, and most importantly how much stress have you had in your life and work life. So, I tell my brain I want to live to 3 digits, 100. I have a chance, Mom 93 and Dad 101! Grandma 90. There are always surprises too, like when I developed Multiple Myeloma cancer at age 72, but because of good Doctors and Trials, it is at by, always there but so far under control. When it comes to money I like to have extra, so all my spreadsheets and calculations use 100.