Many folks are unnerved by what’s happening in Washington, DC, and predictions of doom are widespread. Are you now in the forecasting game? Let’s find out how good you are. Six months from now—as of Wednesday, Oct. 1, 2025—what’s your best guess for these eight:
- Trailing 12-month inflation? Current reading is 2.8%.
- Unemployment? Today’s reading is 4.1%.
- Whether we’re widely considered to be in a recession? Typically, a recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth, so we won’t know for sure as of Oct. 1. That means that, if there’s no strong consensus, we may need to cut HumbleDollar’s pundits a little slack on this one.
- The S&P 500’s Oct. 1 closing value? We’re currently at 5500.
- The Nasdaq Composite’s closing value? Right now, we’re at 17000.
- Whether foreign stocks will still be outperforming U.S. stocks in 2025?
- Whether value stocks will still be outperforming growth stocks in 2025?
- The yield on the 10-year Treasury as of Oct. 1? Today, we’re at 4.23%.
Please list your answers below, and then we’ll check back in six months.
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Here’s my SWAG:
1. 5.8%
2. 7%
3. Yes
4. 3200
5. 9000
6. Yes
7. Yes
8. 5.5%
Inflation in the area of 4% (3.9% to be exact)
Unemployment 5.2% (I hope it’s only that)
Yes, by definition a recession, but those in power will take to the airwaves to claim that the old definitions don’t hold true this time, and we should trust them.
Perhaps glass half full, but the S&P and NASDAQ are largely stagnant through the remainder of the year (I hope that’s as bad as it gets)
Foreign stocks will NOT outperform US. Exception may be China, otherwise this is self-inflicted mutually assured financial destruction.
Value? No.
Treasury yield. By end of year 5% in an attempt to shift sentiments.
My guess is like everyone else, a guess. Perhaps even too optimistic.
Please list your answers below, and then we’ll check back in six months.
This is really difficult, like predicting the next rally or even the daily up and down of the market. My prayer is the stock market ends the year positive even if it is one penny!
Reminds me of the recent March Madness bracket I did (and not doing too well, LOL!), but I will play. Chris
My only prediction, based on past history is that if the economy goes into the dumpster, the current administration will blame it on the last administration 😏
Oh this is fun….going to have to add checking this to my calendar
1. modest gains in inflation. I will say 3.1% (10% increase from today, largely due to tariffs and domestic producers raising prices because foreign competitors’ prices went up AND passing higher input costs on).
2. slight bumps in unemployment. In part from layoffs, in part from cooling economy (NOT saying cold or recession), in part from AI advancements.
3.I do think we COULD see a recession in 2025….or have it start in later 2025….not convinced we are there just yet. I do see a bear market or at least a very sideways market for the immediate future. We have to get past the tariffs transitions and on to the next “thing”. That’s going to take a little bit. IN MY UNINFORMED…having fun guessing…OPINION lol. I am “just some guy at a computer” and acknowledge that. I also see a narrative of “stubborn inflation” ahead and markets losing hope of 2 cuts….we may have to settle on 1 or 0…which at the present rate I think it normal, we ARENT talking 10% mortgages and 7% Fed rates….but as a society I think we are acting like it right now.
4.5200. Not enough to officially enter us into a bear….but shedding some frothiness.
5.)NASDAQ could feel some more pain this year. I am betting on 15,000 by Oct 1.
6.Yes I do believe they will. Foreign governments will be forced to spend more on military and tech/industrial infrastructure as US tech and military supplies get limited and/or more expensive. In the short term, this will help them create jobs. In the longer term…who knows. Our tariffs may help them more than us lol. Not the worst thing…but it will surely increase global competition.
7.I think value will lose LESS than growth. My guess is BOTH fall. Growth should fall more as AI and the mag 7 are likely overvalued. Longer term….most mag 7 will continue to press upward…but they will likely lose a little more steam in the shorter term because they grew too fast. The question I am asking….what cap of value will do best…large has more insulation and more likey to take on institutional money leaving growth large caps….small cap is more nimble to shift fast….I am betting mid cap value large cap value. I worry small cap value companies wont get the presidents/congress attention for favorable treatments and tariff reliefs..
8.Yields will be a wild ride. Fed will likely hold rates, spook fixed income, US will likely cheese off the rest of the world and may reduce foreign investment so I am saying yields go up. I am saying 4.5-5%.
9.Now the ones that weren’t asked. Gold. Spot price is now $2985. I see that going up to $3135. 5% increase. For my ETF friends (which is where I hold my gold), GLDM is now $62…and I am GUESSING well see 65. I think US bonds will look a LITTLE riskier…hence yields going on….institutions will have an increasing preference to reduce risk profile and will see gold as a partial solution to park funds.I also see more nations wanting independence from the US dollar (BRIC nations especially) and looking to increase gold holdings.
10.Bitcoin. you would think BTC would go up with the uncertainty of the US…and the current administration being more crypto friendly…I don’t though. I see a drop to 63k from its present 84k.I dont thnk China loves BTC because they would struggle to control it. Russia may embrace it to trade in, but US institutions hold a good amount and they are looking to reduce risk and brace for impact. I dont think it will be as deep of a sell off as 2022 and institutions now know how hard it could bounce back….but I am not bearish for this year for sure.
11.)Residential real estate. According the the St. Louis Fed ( https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPUS). US home price is now 419k. I see that softening to 410k. Biggest drop may be felt in tech-centric cities, cities with high insurance costs and low taxes (most of florida). Tech will have more and more AI based lay offs and falling sales. Tax friendly, high insurance cost places like florida will lose population BACK to DC and government hubs at return to office mandate for federal agencies come back.
Will, I think you’re ready for your three minutes on CNBC!
2.0%
4.3%
No Recession
5000
16000
Yes
Yes
4.15%
(I generally don’t make predictions, so let’s see how bad I do)
I don’t like to admit it, but faced with coming up with answers for public viewing and reviewing, I have new-found respect for those tasked to do so to earn their paycheck. I’ll sit this one out.
Love a good guessing game. Here goes nothing.
1. 6%, tariffs are gonna be an issue.
2. 4.5%
3. No, but heading into one by the end of the year.
4. S&P 500 at ~4500
5. NASDAQ comp at ~14000
6. No, I believe it will be relatively even performance between the two.
7. I think value will perform better than growth.
8. Yields will remain basically the same.
Predictions are not my forte. Trying not to embarrass myself. Can’t do much worse than my March Madness bracket. Here goes:
1. 3%
2. 4%
3. Not yet
4. 5200
5. 16,200
6. Yes
7. Yes
8. 3.5%
OK. I’ll give it an uneducated guess. I’m apparently a pessimist.
“OK. I’ll give it an uneducated guess.”
Just like all the “expert” prognosticators.
I match Jeff. Both conservative monetary policy and liberal Keynesian economists oppose current tax and tariff plans. I agree with this being a non-political site, however, financial policies are being directed by the Heritage 2025 plan and includes things like Medicare cuts and should be acknowledged as a framework in consumer financial discussions: https://www.project2025.org/policy/
I whole heartly agree.
I pulled back into money markets today after a couple months of deliberating. At 80 yrs old, my sleep is more important than what’s going on in the stock market.
I have no clue whether you’ll be proven right, Jeff, but I appreciate your courage in being the first reader to put his or her neck on the line!