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IN THE ANCIENT WORLD, before the invention of the printing press, the most common way to retain information was to build what’s known as a memory palace. The idea was to link words to images, because images are easier to remember.
I’ve found that this strategy works well in personal finance, and earlier this year I described some of the images that I rely on most. Below are several more.
1. Back in 2011, an Illinois man named Wayne Sabaj was in his yard when something caught his eye. Upon closer inspection, it turned out to be a package containing a large amount of cash—about $150,000. Sabaj never found out who had buried these funds or why. This sort of thing is not uncommon. Homeowners doing renovations regularly find cash hidden in backyards, basements and bedroom walls.
For me, this is a reminder that many financial decisions are subjective and in the eye of the beholder. To be sure, most people hold their money in the bank, where it’s safe and can earn interest. But not every financial decision has to be strictly optimal. As I often say, there are two answers to every financial question: what the numbers say and how you feel about it. In my view, as long as a financial decision doesn’t carry undue risk, we shouldn’t worry what someone else might think.
2. You may remember the name Keith Gill, or his alter ego, Roaring Kitty. Gill is the day trader who gained fame in 2021 when he helped drive up the share price of the failing retailer GameStop. That, in turn, caused the failure of a multi-billion-dollar hedge fund which had been betting against GameStop. Gill accomplished all of this from his basement in suburban Boston.
This, in my mind, illustrates a growing phenomenon in the market. It’s what hedge fund manager Cliff Asness refers to as the “less efficient market hypothesis.” The internet, and social media in particular, have spawned what he calls “a coordinated clueless and even dangerous mob.” That’s in contrast to the long-held belief that investors should benefit from having more information. This year’s resurgence of so-called meme stocks suggests that Asness may be right. This less-than-rational behavior is another reason to take the long view in investing.
3. Tax rules are complicated and change frequently. But there’s one rule that’s easy to remember, thanks to a hapless fellow named Alvan Bobrow. In 2014, Bobrow, a tax attorney, came to the attention of the IRS when an audit revealed he’d taken advantage of the rules governing IRA rollovers. These rules allow an investor who wants to transfer the balance of a 401(k) or IRA to hold the funds temporarily in his or her checking account—but only for 60 days.
What Bobrow realized, however, was that if he held multiple IRA accounts, he could make continuous use of his IRA dollars by daisy-chaining multiple 60-day rollovers, one after the other, without formally withdrawing the funds, which would have been taxable. Because of the Bobrow case, the IRS clarified the rules. Now, a taxpayer is allowed only one rollover like this per 12-month period. There is, however, no restriction on another type of transfer known as a direct rollover. With this approach, the funds never pass through the investor’s checking account, so you’d never risk running afoul of the rule that tripped up Alvan Bobrow.
4. An incident in 2009 illustrates why diversification is important. A Tel Aviv woman named Anat observed that her elderly mother had been sleeping on the same worn mattress for years. Wanting to do something nice, Anat had a new mattress delivered and put the old one out with the trash. Unfortunately, as Anat later found out, her mother had been holding her entire life’s savings in her mattress—more than $1 million. Anat enlisted a team to search through several landfills for the mattress but without luck. This is an extreme example, but it illustrates why even investments that seem safe can carry risk.
5. Imagine you’re furnishing a new home. Where would you start? For most people, it might be a table and chairs for the dining room or a couch for the living room. I doubt, though, that you would start with something as minor as an umbrella stand. That might seem obvious. Problem is, that’s the way the media tend to talk about investments, focusing on hot stocks, famous fund managers and the like.
What the data say, however, is that it’s much more important to focus on the overall asset allocation of a portfolio. Yes, individual investment choices matter. And sometimes they make all the difference—if you happened to catch a stock like Nvidia, for example. But for most people, most of the time, asset allocation is the primary driver of a portfolio, and that’s where I’d put most of my focus.
6. Should you hold cash in your portfolio? Until interest rates rose a few years ago, that was viewed as suboptimal. Conventional wisdom argued that it made sense to hold only a minimal amount of cash, enough to cover any upcoming withdrawals. But investors’ experience in 2022 illustrates why cash isn’t a bad investment.
When interest rates rose sharply, both stocks and bonds dropped simultaneously—stocks by 18% and bonds by 13%. An investor who held enough cash, or very short-term bonds, to meet withdrawals for that entire year, however, would have been able to avoid selling stocks or bonds when both were down. If you’re thinking about how to structure your portfolio, it’s worth keeping 2022 in mind.
7. In the 1983 movie Trading Places, a key plotline hinges on the annual Florida orange crop. According to the story, it had been a cold winter in Florida. Because of that, the expectation was that the orange harvest would be weak and thus orange prices would move higher. As it turned out, though, the harvest wasn’t any worse than usual—despite the weather—and prices didn’t move higher.
This was just a movie, but this dynamic plays out frequently in investment markets. Investors piece together what looks like a logical story, but for one reason or another, things don’t work out as expected. This is another reason I suggest taking the long view with investments. It’s just too difficult to predict how any given piece of short-term news will affect investment markets.
8. If you’ve ever taken care of toddlers, you know how exhausting it can be. But if they’re both in front of you, and not running around in different directions, it can be a lot easier to keep an eye on them. This illustrates why I recommend building a simple portfolio. If you consolidate your investments into a smaller number of holdings and a smaller number of accounts, that won’t guarantee better investment performance. But it will almost certainly be easier to monitor and to manage.
Adam M. Grossman is the founder of Mayport, a fixed-fee wealth management firm. Sign up for Adam’s Daily Ideas email, follow him on X @AdamMGrossman and check out his earlier articles.
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Was Wayne able to keep the money? I need to rent a back hoe. Great article sir. And fully agree.
Good article Adam. Number 1 reminded me of my wife’s neighborhood. My fatter-in-law and many if his buddies believed in keeping a stash of cash “just in case”. As they got older they worried about what might happen to it, an my wife became the repository of knowledge of where the funds were hidden for several of the men. I often wonder if there are stashes still hidden that nobody knows about.
The second part of that section interests me. You write:
As I often say, there are two answers to every financial question: what the numbers say and how you feel about it. In my view, as long as a financial decision doesn’t carry undue risk, we shouldn’t worry what someone else might think.
I think that is good general advice. But I’ve encountered many people who don’t know how to create the numbers, and are unsure about how they feel. More importantly, how do you define “undue risk”. My approach is to try to strike a balance considering what the numbers say and what feels right. To me that’s the optimal solution.
Fun article. There is also the one about the bitcoin millionaire who threw out his passkey. I understand he has been attempting to purchase the dump he believes that hard drive is located in.
Item 2: The market may be rational, but investors may not be.
Item 4: More mattresses are better!
Item 6: Cash isn’t trash; it wasn’t in 2022 and it isn’t today. Warren Buffet’s Berkshire’s cash stake is now $344 Billion.
Great article. Thanks
Let’s test “ As I often say, there are two answers to every financial question: what the numbers say and how you feel about it. In my view, as long as a financial decision doesn’t carry undue risk, we shouldn’t worry what someone else might think.”
My neighbor sold his business about 30 years ago for about $15 million. His yearly expense has run about $100K in the last several years, 20-30 years ago it was lower. The money has been invested in the last 30 years at 90+% in Munis, the rest in stocks and MM.
Another retired couple I know has over $1.5 million in savings. Their pensions + SS = $20K per month = $240 annually. Their yearly expenses are $120K. Most of their money is invested in MM. They hate risk and volatility. This has been going on for at least 15 years.
Another retired friend I know has $500K invested all in MM. She hates risk and volatility. She lives extremely frugally, just in case.
I think that all have been making unreasonable investing decisions, but they FEEL pretty good about it.
Fantastic Article as there is more to Finance than numbers. Keep these great articles coming, as they matter a lot to all of us. And for sure, you just never know where cash is stored. Thanks for the insights.
Agree wholly with Jeremy’s comments on the fine and insightful articles Adam has shared with us and, equally importantly, on the irreplaceable void of Jonathan no longer being at the helm.
Thanks, Adam. Enjoyed the article. Please keep those “War Stories” coming.
It seems we frequently get distracted by the “umbrella stand”, and not just in financial media reports. Someone pushing a message, whether a politician or salesman, often uses this ploy to move us to take action to benefit him. It’s good to pause and ask why? Thanks for keeping your message focused on the data.
A side note: My daughter has an excellent memory that became obvious at an early age. When she was around age four, she described her memories as filling up “boxes” in her mind, and retrieving them required finding the right box.
Simplicity is a powerful thing. It reminds me of Occam’s razor, a useful tool for all the conspiracy theories swirling around. That’s also why I like Fidelity as a platform. Everything that you need seems to be there, and they don’t have shareholders to keep happy. Great article.
Another great article from Adam filled with practical examples that illustrate our human inclination to go for complex when simple will do; or to confuse financial talking heads with expertise.
On another, and more emotional note, I think Adam is doing great job in covering for the role that Jonathan so ably occupied. JC is irreplaceable of course, but Adam shares many of the same values of thoughtfulness, creativity and practical common sense. Respect.