Many quote Buffett, but almost no one knows how to do it
Balancing does solve a big meltdown of 30-50%
The markets can go higher a lot longer than you think; the last 15-16 years are proof of that. The market goes down much faster
At least 80% don't have enough
Buffett said "Diversification is protection against ignorance. It makes little sense if you know what you are doing". For the masses he recommended the SP500 which again is DO NOT diversify.
I took his ideas and invested only in great risk/reward 2-5 mutual funds according to what markets have done lately.
Since retirement I have used only 2-3 bond mutual funds. Since I have enough since retirement in 2018, I decided to use only special bond funds. I made 11+% annually. Last year I mentioned HOSIX. What did HOSIX make during 2023-24?
20+%. https://schrts.co/xqhNhiJK I sold it in 2025.
What funds have done well in 2025 and in the last 3 years? EGRIX: https://schrts.co/HAtAsnGc
3 years: https://schrts.co/YHVYsWqZ If you want to own stocks with lower volatility. How about QLENX
YTD: https://schrts.co/VcHsPnCr
The last 3 years: https://schrts.co/EWsjrFQh There are many skeptics because they don't believe in it, but they never tried. Many tried but didn't try enough.
I will give you one easy example, and it's free for anyone to use.
Fidelity had a FREE fund screener. Suppose you want to find good risk/reward funds. That means funds with the highest Sharpe ratio.
Start at https://fundresearch.fidelity.com/fund-screener/
Click on the RISK tab and sort by the highest Sharpe.
The link below will show you HOSIX=HOSAX,QLEIX=QLENX
https://fundresearch.fidelity.com/fund-screener/results/table/risk/sharpeRatio3Yr/desc/1?assetClass=&category=&order=assetClass%2Ccategory How much time do I spend on finding great funds? Maybe one hour every several funds. I also use timing and switching. That took years of training. You can't learn to swim by reading a book; you actually have to do it. BTW, when you have enough, it's much easier. It means you can be in 20-80% stocks and do nothing for decades. More than 80-85% of investors don't have enough. What should they do? Warren Buffet has said, Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.” Easier said than done. If markets go down 10% and you bought, you raised your risk if markets go down another 20% because you would lose more than just doing nothing.
If you wait too long, markets may have already recovered.
There are solutions. :-) I never play contrarian. I only play according to markets currently. Always long, but rarely I'm out.
I’ve worked in IT for over 35 years. I always believed that technology would create more jobs—and for a long time, it did. IT has helped countless other industries grow and become more efficient.
Throughout my career, I’ve seen plenty of average and below-average IT workers, especially in the earlier decades. But success in IT always demanded real brainpower—the ability to define precise requirements, perform solid analysis, and deliver great products quickly and with minimal bugs. And this is exactly where AI now excels.
AI isn’t just changing other industries—it’s changing IT itself. AI can do many IT tasks faster and better. We’ll end up with fewer IT workers, and the ones who remain will be the top ones. As AI and computing power accelerate research, we may even see a reduced need for traditionally educated scientists. And it won’t stop there—many white-collar professions are likely to shrink as well. Of course, we’ll still need plumbers and HVAC technicians. Some jobs simply can’t be automated. If I were starting my career today, I’d go into healthcare—specifically as a Nurse Practitioner. It offers good pay, reasonable hours, and fewer responsibilities compared to being a doctor. I read that some argue other points:
1) New technology created new opportunities and more jobs. AI will lower the demand for jobs + will pay the lucky ones a lot more.
2) the government will take care of it
3) Companies will let employees work fewer hours and keep the same number of them. I have serious doubts that things will turn out alright. Just because new technologies in the past created new opportunities doesn’t mean the same will happen this time. AI is fundamentally different—if you truly understand what it is and what it can do, you know this isn’t just another technological shift.
Whenever I read that “the government will take care of it,” I can’t help but laugh. Most government initiatives are slow, inefficient, and massively over budget—meanwhile, millions of people will be left struggling. And why would any CEO agree to employees working fewer hours? If a company has 1,000 employees working 40 hours a week, a 20% reduction in labor hours usually means 20% of them get laid off, and the rest work harder—for the same pay. I’ve seen this happen firsthand over years in the industry. Meanwhile, the richest tech companies are paying their top AI talent nine-digit salaries—or more. Mark Zuckerberg Reportedly Made One Person a $1.5 Billion Job Offer — and Was Rejected. That alone should tell you where the power and profit are heading. AI will be great for solving health care problems. Education will get better if we do it right. That will be a tough task with the unions. Go ahead and be skeptical; AI is already advancing quicker than we thought 2-3 years ago. ================= Most investors on this site are indexers and don't change their asset allocation. This is a pretty good choice for most, but when markets collapse, you will lose a lot. If you are too diversified, when one category excels and the other lags badly, your performance will suffer too.
Bond funds are another category that can lag for years. BND lost money in 5 years and made just 2-2.2% annually in the last 10-15 years.
The SP500 lost about 9% for 10 years, from 1-1-2000 to 1-1-2010.
In the next 15 years the SP500 did great.
Despite this, few investors take the time to learn how to switch slowly between broad asset categories or to apply timing strategies, often because they don’t believe such approaches can work. Some of you are lucky to have pensions, but most don't have them.
We’ve only ever had one house and two vehicles. Never a second home, RV, boat, timeshare, or pool — if we need it, we rent it.
We never wanted to live on the coast. Our priority has always been living in a city with quick, reliable healthcare. Our subdivision is quiet and well-maintained, with 13 tennis courts, 4 pickleball courts, bike lanes, 3 pools, and a beautiful man-made lake with a 2.5-mile walking path — half paved and half through the woods. It’s just a 10-minute walk from our house.
For all that, we pay just $850 annually. Using the pools and the courts is included.
The weather here is great most of the time. We rarely see snow, and that’s perfect for us. I definitely don't want to deal with weather disasters.
We’ve got plenty of stores and restaurants — pretty much anything you can imagine and parking is easy everywhere.
Amazon delivers almost anything within hours or a day or two, and returns are just as quick and convenient.
We have been to many European countries. Over the past two years, we’ve spent more than five weeks in the UK and Ireland, 2 weeks in Belgium, 3+ weeks in NZ, and almost 4 weeks in Australia. Nice to visit — but no, thanks.
I often tell people that if they want to live on the coast, Georgia is one of the better choices. Florida, South Carolina, North Carolina, and states farther north keep getting hit by storms, while the Georgia coast tends to be spared. Florida’s also gotten unbearably hot, expensive, and congested — traffic is terrible in just about every city now, and coastal home insurance is very high. We vistsed FL again a couple of years ago. I couldn't believe the traffic in small places like Tampa and even Sarasota, where it took me 45 minutes to drive 9 miles at 10 AM and 2 PM.
Several observations after talking to many people about Medicare:
Those on Original Medicare often know very little about specific Advantage plans. Their comments are usually along the lines of: “You’re rolling the dice,” “You have limited choices,” “You need pre-approvals,” or “I’ve heard stories…” — though none of those stories are ever local.
When I explain the best Advantage options, the typical response is, “You must be missing something.”
Everyone in my circle managed to find a good broker who placed them in one of the top Advantage plans. It’s really not that complicated, and about half have switched to Advantage over the years.
None of them regret the decision — several have even gone through surgeries or cancer treatments without issues. Most of these people's age is 75 to late 80s. That means they have used Medicare for many years already
Those who’ve managed their money well over the decades, have sufficient savings, and invest the difference tend to do even better.
Like most types of insurance, Medicare is a local issue — it’s worth doing the research.
There is no deductible. There are certain things that cost more.
Primary dr = $0
Specialists are a flat $20
Surgery=$415 flat
CT/MRI from $190 to $325
Cancer is the big one; you pay 20% of the cost for chemo, radiology, and others. I know several who had cancer and only paid the MOOP. MOOP = max out of pocket
Garbage was a relative term.
HMOs have limited providers, and that's why I never look at them.
PPOs are the ones you look for. Then, I added all my doctors, who are the best in our town...and only several plans remained.
The chances you will find great Advantage plans in small cities are much lower. How can I spend $300K in one year? If a procedure falls under Medicare, it is available under Original and Advantage.
My MOOP (max out of pocket) is $6700. I know a couple that switched to Original after their Advantage was cancelled without underwriting for Medigap. The county 20 miles from us doesn't include our Advantage. Use your imagination.
Good article, but it’s too generic to apply to everyone.
In certain large cities, Medicare Advantage can be much better. In my county alone, there are over 60 Advantage plans. Around 90% of them are garbage — but the top plans from Aetna and Humana are excellent.
I’ve been on Humana PFFS for three years now — it’s the only one available in the county. With this plan, I can see any provider or get any procedure anywhere in the U.S., with the same cost whether in or out of network.
Here’s what my plan looks like:
Monthly premiums: $0
Primary care visits: $0
Specialists (anywhere in the U.S.): $20, no referral needed
Dental: $2,500 annual coverage with zero deductible
Vision: $550 toward eye exams and glasses
OTC (Over-the-Counter) allowance: $1,000 per year
Gym: Free (my local LA Fitness normally costs over $500 a year)
Medication: I’m on Repatha, and they found a way for me to pay $0
Max Out-of-Pocket (MOOP): $6,700 — which rarely happens
Now compare that to Original Medicare + Plan G: Three years ago, low-deductible Plan G was $145/month. In 2026, it’ll be $206 — a 33% increase. Add the annual deductible ($257) and Plan D, and you’re looking at around $250/month.
In my case, annual prescriptions would cost about $2,100, bringing the total to roughly $5,000 out-of-pocket per year. If you’re lucky and your prescriptions are cheap, it’s still around $3,500–$3,800 per year.Now let’s do the math for 2025: This year, I paid nothing for all the benefits listed above.
Ten specialist visits = about $200 (I had only 4 in 2025, 1 out of net)
Other prescriptions = $200
One surgery = $415 (flat cost, no bills or payment discussions). The hospital was out of network.
New glasses with premium lenses = $0 (saved $550)
Dental = already used $2,100
OTC allowance = already spent $1,000
Total out-of-pocket for 2025: roughly $900 So, compared with Original Medicare, I’m ahead by:
$5,000 - $900 = $4,100 saved, or
$3,500 - $900 = $2,600 saved if prescriptions are cheaper
Add in the extra plan benefits (OTC $1,000 + Dental $2,500 + Gym $500 = $4,000), and we’re talking at least $6,000 in total value.
That extra $6,000, when invested at 8% annually, becomes more than $150,000 over time. I’ll take that deal any day. Bonus tip: If your Advantage plan is canceled, you can return to Original Medicare without underwriting — a nice loophole most people don’t know about. The best plans may get cancelled; the worst stay. Many people I know have been on one of the top 2–3 Advantage plans in our county for years. They all use the same broker, who manages close to 1,000 Advantage clients. According to him, the highest out-of-pocket cost any of them ever paid was about $2,000. My wife is on the same plan. Together, we’ve probably saved around $300,000 over 15 years. So yes, there are plenty of scary stories out there — and some are true — but not all Advantage plans are bad or inferior. The key is finding one of the good ones. In our case, it’s been absolutely worth it. BTW, the savings, including making money already, are over $25K.
It's already 7.5 years, not 5. In that period, I avoided all the meltdowns, and each was different.
I have been doing it since 2000, for over 25 years. I have only practiced timing for about 10 years. From 01/2000 to 01/2010, the SP500 lost close to 10% over 10 years, while I made so much more, mainly with SGIIX, FAIRX, and OAKBX.
See it https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&sl=1k1TcbYfx6XfU1esa14pwr
This is why I retired years earlier. Over the past 30 years, 2008 was the only year I had a loss — that was when I was invested mostly in stocks and didn’t apply my timing approach. Even then, my loss was much smaller than the S&P 500’s 37% drop, and international stocks fell over 40%.
From 2010 to 2018, as I prepared for retirement, my stock allocation trailed the S&P 500 by about 1% annually. For anyone diversified with international, value, or small-cap stocks, performance was roughly the same.
My bond holdings, however, told a different story. I invested heavily in one fund — PIMIX — which performed far better than the bond index fund BND. In January 2018, I sold PIMIX and never bought it again.
When I retired in 2018, I calculated that I needed about 6% annual returns to live comfortably for the rest of my life. I ended up earning nearly twice that — all through a portfolio composed of 95% special, unique bond funds. I’ve shared that performance before.
While the S&P 500 is a great index, very few investors hold only that.
Bonds — my specialty — have significantly outperformed BND, whose annualized returns have been disappointing:
Last 5 years: –0.1%
Last 10 years: 1.9%
Last 15 years: 2.3%
That’s a poor record.
So, while I encourage most people to invest in index funds and hold for the long term, there are other possibilities. Managing a retirement portfolio is more challenging — it’s easy if you have a pension or a large nest egg, but most people don’t.
That means many retirees need to keep a high percentage in stocks. Those who retired around 2000 and relied heavily on equities often had to go back to work — and that could happen again.
I’ve read thousands of articles and research papers, and most come to the same conclusion: work longer. I believe there are other answers. None of them are easy, but they’re still better than working for many more years. I’ve helped several of my less fortunate friends find that path — for free.Lastly, I'm a retiree with enough money.
It’s not about how much I can make — it’s about how much I don’t want to lose. That’s why I don’t worry at all.
If stocks drop 50% or more, why would I sit still and watch my portfolio fall 25–30%?
I have heard about HIGH valuation since 2012 when Prof. Shiller said that US stocks are overvalued according to CAPE and EM stocks should be better. The opposite happened
Many meltdowns didn't occur because of overvaluations:
2008=MBS fiasco
2018=3-4 rate increase
2020=Covid
2022: The Fed started to raise rate rapidly
2025: Tariffs will create inflation = didn't happen Does market timing work?
It took me 10 years to get it "right" and it works great since retirement in 2018.
If risk is "normal" my portfolio is invested at 99+%. In high risk = 99+% in MM. See the proof https://ibb.co/zT6QGzSs
Comments
The main problems
- Many quote Buffett, but almost no one knows how to do it
- Balancing does solve a big meltdown of 30-50%
- The markets can go higher a lot longer than you think; the last 15-16 years are proof of that. The market goes down much faster
- At least 80% don't have enough
Buffett said "Diversification is protection against ignorance. It makes little sense if you know what you are doing". For the masses he recommended the SP500 which again is DO NOT diversify. I took his ideas and invested only in great risk/reward 2-5 mutual funds according to what markets have done lately. Since retirement I have used only 2-3 bond mutual funds. Since I have enough since retirement in 2018, I decided to use only special bond funds. I made 11+% annually. Last year I mentioned HOSIX. What did HOSIX make during 2023-24? 20+%. https://schrts.co/xqhNhiJK I sold it in 2025. What funds have done well in 2025 and in the last 3 years? EGRIX: https://schrts.co/HAtAsnGc 3 years: https://schrts.co/YHVYsWqZ If you want to own stocks with lower volatility. How about QLENX YTD: https://schrts.co/VcHsPnCr The last 3 years: https://schrts.co/EWsjrFQh There are many skeptics because they don't believe in it, but they never tried. Many tried but didn't try enough. I will give you one easy example, and it's free for anyone to use. Fidelity had a FREE fund screener. Suppose you want to find good risk/reward funds. That means funds with the highest Sharpe ratio. Start at https://fundresearch.fidelity.com/fund-screener/ Click on the RISK tab and sort by the highest Sharpe. The link below will show you HOSIX=HOSAX,QLEIX=QLENX https://fundresearch.fidelity.com/fund-screener/results/table/risk/sharpeRatio3Yr/desc/1?assetClass=&category=&order=assetClass%2Ccategory How much time do I spend on finding great funds? Maybe one hour every several funds. I also use timing and switching. That took years of training. You can't learn to swim by reading a book; you actually have to do it. BTW, when you have enough, it's much easier. It means you can be in 20-80% stocks and do nothing for decades. More than 80-85% of investors don't have enough. What should they do? Warren Buffet has said, Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.” Easier said than done. If markets go down 10% and you bought, you raised your risk if markets go down another 20% because you would lose more than just doing nothing. If you wait too long, markets may have already recovered. There are solutions. :-) I never play contrarian. I only play according to markets currently. Always long, but rarely I'm out.Post: The Conversation: Contrarian Meets Momentum
Link to comment from November 8, 2025
I’ve worked in IT for over 35 years. I always believed that technology would create more jobs—and for a long time, it did. IT has helped countless other industries grow and become more efficient. Throughout my career, I’ve seen plenty of average and below-average IT workers, especially in the earlier decades. But success in IT always demanded real brainpower—the ability to define precise requirements, perform solid analysis, and deliver great products quickly and with minimal bugs. And this is exactly where AI now excels. AI isn’t just changing other industries—it’s changing IT itself. AI can do many IT tasks faster and better. We’ll end up with fewer IT workers, and the ones who remain will be the top ones. As AI and computing power accelerate research, we may even see a reduced need for traditionally educated scientists. And it won’t stop there—many white-collar professions are likely to shrink as well. Of course, we’ll still need plumbers and HVAC technicians. Some jobs simply can’t be automated. If I were starting my career today, I’d go into healthcare—specifically as a Nurse Practitioner. It offers good pay, reasonable hours, and fewer responsibilities compared to being a doctor. I read that some argue other points: 1) New technology created new opportunities and more jobs. AI will lower the demand for jobs + will pay the lucky ones a lot more. 2) the government will take care of it 3) Companies will let employees work fewer hours and keep the same number of them. I have serious doubts that things will turn out alright. Just because new technologies in the past created new opportunities doesn’t mean the same will happen this time. AI is fundamentally different—if you truly understand what it is and what it can do, you know this isn’t just another technological shift. Whenever I read that “the government will take care of it,” I can’t help but laugh. Most government initiatives are slow, inefficient, and massively over budget—meanwhile, millions of people will be left struggling. And why would any CEO agree to employees working fewer hours? If a company has 1,000 employees working 40 hours a week, a 20% reduction in labor hours usually means 20% of them get laid off, and the rest work harder—for the same pay. I’ve seen this happen firsthand over years in the industry. Meanwhile, the richest tech companies are paying their top AI talent nine-digit salaries—or more. Mark Zuckerberg Reportedly Made One Person a $1.5 Billion Job Offer — and Was Rejected. That alone should tell you where the power and profit are heading. AI will be great for solving health care problems. Education will get better if we do it right. That will be a tough task with the unions. Go ahead and be skeptical; AI is already advancing quicker than we thought 2-3 years ago. ================= Most investors on this site are indexers and don't change their asset allocation. This is a pretty good choice for most, but when markets collapse, you will lose a lot. If you are too diversified, when one category excels and the other lags badly, your performance will suffer too. Bond funds are another category that can lag for years. BND lost money in 5 years and made just 2-2.2% annually in the last 10-15 years. The SP500 lost about 9% for 10 years, from 1-1-2000 to 1-1-2010. In the next 15 years the SP500 did great. Despite this, few investors take the time to learn how to switch slowly between broad asset categories or to apply timing strategies, often because they don’t believe such approaches can work. Some of you are lucky to have pensions, but most don't have them.
Post: AI Rally Market Risks
Link to comment from November 8, 2025
We’ve only ever had one house and two vehicles. Never a second home, RV, boat, timeshare, or pool — if we need it, we rent it. We never wanted to live on the coast. Our priority has always been living in a city with quick, reliable healthcare. Our subdivision is quiet and well-maintained, with 13 tennis courts, 4 pickleball courts, bike lanes, 3 pools, and a beautiful man-made lake with a 2.5-mile walking path — half paved and half through the woods. It’s just a 10-minute walk from our house. For all that, we pay just $850 annually. Using the pools and the courts is included. The weather here is great most of the time. We rarely see snow, and that’s perfect for us. I definitely don't want to deal with weather disasters. We’ve got plenty of stores and restaurants — pretty much anything you can imagine and parking is easy everywhere. Amazon delivers almost anything within hours or a day or two, and returns are just as quick and convenient. We have been to many European countries. Over the past two years, we’ve spent more than five weeks in the UK and Ireland, 2 weeks in Belgium, 3+ weeks in NZ, and almost 4 weeks in Australia. Nice to visit — but no, thanks. I often tell people that if they want to live on the coast, Georgia is one of the better choices. Florida, South Carolina, North Carolina, and states farther north keep getting hit by storms, while the Georgia coast tends to be spared. Florida’s also gotten unbearably hot, expensive, and congested — traffic is terrible in just about every city now, and coastal home insurance is very high. We vistsed FL again a couple of years ago. I couldn't believe the traffic in small places like Tampa and even Sarasota, where it took me 45 minutes to drive 9 miles at 10 AM and 2 PM.
Post: Coastal Retirement? Have You Considered These Costs?
Link to comment from November 1, 2025
Several observations after talking to many people about Medicare:
Post: Don’t make the wrong Medicare decision
Link to comment from October 27, 2025
Kaiser is my city has limited and not great choices for specialists and hospitals. We had couple of friends on Kaiser and all switched.
Post: Don’t make the wrong Medicare decision
Link to comment from October 27, 2025
There is no deductible. There are certain things that cost more. Primary dr = $0 Specialists are a flat $20 Surgery=$415 flat CT/MRI from $190 to $325 Cancer is the big one; you pay 20% of the cost for chemo, radiology, and others. I know several who had cancer and only paid the MOOP. MOOP = max out of pocket
Post: Don’t make the wrong Medicare decision
Link to comment from October 26, 2025
Garbage was a relative term. HMOs have limited providers, and that's why I never look at them. PPOs are the ones you look for. Then, I added all my doctors, who are the best in our town...and only several plans remained. The chances you will find great Advantage plans in small cities are much lower. How can I spend $300K in one year? If a procedure falls under Medicare, it is available under Original and Advantage. My MOOP (max out of pocket) is $6700. I know a couple that switched to Original after their Advantage was cancelled without underwriting for Medigap. The county 20 miles from us doesn't include our Advantage. Use your imagination.
Post: Don’t make the wrong Medicare decision
Link to comment from October 26, 2025
Good article, but it’s too generic to apply to everyone. In certain large cities, Medicare Advantage can be much better. In my county alone, there are over 60 Advantage plans. Around 90% of them are garbage — but the top plans from Aetna and Humana are excellent. I’ve been on Humana PFFS for three years now — it’s the only one available in the county. With this plan, I can see any provider or get any procedure anywhere in the U.S., with the same cost whether in or out of network. Here’s what my plan looks like:
- Monthly premiums: $0
- Primary care visits: $0
- Specialists (anywhere in the U.S.): $20, no referral needed
- Dental: $2,500 annual coverage with zero deductible
- Vision: $550 toward eye exams and glasses
- OTC (Over-the-Counter) allowance: $1,000 per year
- Gym: Free (my local LA Fitness normally costs over $500 a year)
- Medication: I’m on Repatha, and they found a way for me to pay $0
- Max Out-of-Pocket (MOOP): $6,700 — which rarely happens
Now compare that to Original Medicare + Plan G: Three years ago, low-deductible Plan G was $145/month. In 2026, it’ll be $206 — a 33% increase. Add the annual deductible ($257) and Plan D, and you’re looking at around $250/month. In my case, annual prescriptions would cost about $2,100, bringing the total to roughly $5,000 out-of-pocket per year. If you’re lucky and your prescriptions are cheap, it’s still around $3,500–$3,800 per year. Now let’s do the math for 2025: This year, I paid nothing for all the benefits listed above.- Ten specialist visits = about $200 (I had only 4 in 2025, 1 out of net)
- Other prescriptions = $200
- One surgery = $415 (flat cost, no bills or payment discussions). The hospital was out of network.
- New glasses with premium lenses = $0 (saved $550)
- Dental = already used $2,100
- OTC allowance = already spent $1,000
Total out-of-pocket for 2025: roughly $900 So, compared with Original Medicare, I’m ahead by:- $5,000 - $900 = $4,100 saved, or
- $3,500 - $900 = $2,600 saved if prescriptions are cheaper
Add in the extra plan benefits (OTC $1,000 + Dental $2,500 + Gym $500 = $4,000), and we’re talking at least $6,000 in total value. That extra $6,000, when invested at 8% annually, becomes more than $150,000 over time. I’ll take that deal any day. Bonus tip: If your Advantage plan is canceled, you can return to Original Medicare without underwriting — a nice loophole most people don’t know about. The best plans may get cancelled; the worst stay. Many people I know have been on one of the top 2–3 Advantage plans in our county for years. They all use the same broker, who manages close to 1,000 Advantage clients. According to him, the highest out-of-pocket cost any of them ever paid was about $2,000. My wife is on the same plan. Together, we’ve probably saved around $300,000 over 15 years. So yes, there are plenty of scary stories out there — and some are true — but not all Advantage plans are bad or inferior. The key is finding one of the good ones. In our case, it’s been absolutely worth it. BTW, the savings, including making money already, are over $25K.Post: Don’t make the wrong Medicare decision
Link to comment from October 26, 2025
It's already 7.5 years, not 5. In that period, I avoided all the meltdowns, and each was different. I have been doing it since 2000, for over 25 years. I have only practiced timing for about 10 years. From 01/2000 to 01/2010, the SP500 lost close to 10% over 10 years, while I made so much more, mainly with SGIIX, FAIRX, and OAKBX. See it https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&sl=1k1TcbYfx6XfU1esa14pwr This is why I retired years earlier. Over the past 30 years, 2008 was the only year I had a loss — that was when I was invested mostly in stocks and didn’t apply my timing approach. Even then, my loss was much smaller than the S&P 500’s 37% drop, and international stocks fell over 40%. From 2010 to 2018, as I prepared for retirement, my stock allocation trailed the S&P 500 by about 1% annually. For anyone diversified with international, value, or small-cap stocks, performance was roughly the same. My bond holdings, however, told a different story. I invested heavily in one fund — PIMIX — which performed far better than the bond index fund BND. In January 2018, I sold PIMIX and never bought it again. When I retired in 2018, I calculated that I needed about 6% annual returns to live comfortably for the rest of my life. I ended up earning nearly twice that — all through a portfolio composed of 95% special, unique bond funds. I’ve shared that performance before. While the S&P 500 is a great index, very few investors hold only that. Bonds — my specialty — have significantly outperformed BND, whose annualized returns have been disappointing:
- Last 5 years: –0.1%
- Last 10 years: 1.9%
- Last 15 years: 2.3%
That’s a poor record. So, while I encourage most people to invest in index funds and hold for the long term, there are other possibilities. Managing a retirement portfolio is more challenging — it’s easy if you have a pension or a large nest egg, but most people don’t. That means many retirees need to keep a high percentage in stocks. Those who retired around 2000 and relied heavily on equities often had to go back to work — and that could happen again. I’ve read thousands of articles and research papers, and most come to the same conclusion: work longer. I believe there are other answers. None of them are easy, but they’re still better than working for many more years. I’ve helped several of my less fortunate friends find that path — for free. Lastly, I'm a retiree with enough money. It’s not about how much I can make — it’s about how much I don’t want to lose. That’s why I don’t worry at all. If stocks drop 50% or more, why would I sit still and watch my portfolio fall 25–30%?Post: Is The Stock Market Overvalued?
Link to comment from October 22, 2025
I have heard about HIGH valuation since 2012 when Prof. Shiller said that US stocks are overvalued according to CAPE and EM stocks should be better. The opposite happened Many meltdowns didn't occur because of overvaluations: 2008=MBS fiasco 2018=3-4 rate increase 2020=Covid 2022: The Fed started to raise rate rapidly 2025: Tariffs will create inflation = didn't happen Does market timing work? It took me 10 years to get it "right" and it works great since retirement in 2018. If risk is "normal" my portfolio is invested at 99+%. In high risk = 99+% in MM. See the proof https://ibb.co/zT6QGzSs
Post: Is The Stock Market Overvalued?
Link to comment from October 18, 2025