Contrary to the views expressed here and on many other investing sites, I have never simply sat through every market meltdown without taking action. During each major downturn, I spent time reading the work of John Bogle, Warren Buffett, and many other respected investors about why holding the S&P 500 for decades has historically been successful. For most investors, that approach works well. However, I never fully accepted the idea of holding through multiple declines of more than 50% (2000–2002 and 2007–2009) and several additional 20%+ corrections since then. I also studied valuation metrics extensively. Over time, I concluded that while metrics such as P/E and CAPE (Shiller P/E) and dozens of economic indicators can provide context, they often remain disconnected from market performance for years. If investors never look beyond traditional market metrics or consider broader global trends, they risk missing important opportunities—or making costly mistakes.
If they can be wrong for such long periods, why do so many investors rely on them as primary decision-making tools? Here are several ideas that I rarely see discussed.
I ignore more than 95% of financial articles, TV experts, academic opinions, and market commentary. Instead, I remain flexible and evaluate multiple perspectives.
The single most important indicator I follow is price. Price represents where buyers and sellers agree in real time. It isn't an opinion—it is the market's collective judgment. GDP, inflation, P/E, CAPE, employment reports, sentiment surveys, and hundreds of other indicators are simply snapshots. None of them determine market direction by themselves.
I focus on the bigger picture. Major market declines are usually driven by unique global events rather than valuation alone.
Since 2010, I've also argued that while Europe remains a wonderful destination for vacations and retirement for some people, it faces long-term structural challenges. Aging demographics, increasing regulation, slower innovation, and expanding social welfare obligations continue to pressure economic growth. I believe this is also a warning worth considering for the United States.
Consider some examples of when I took actions.
1995–2000: Stocks produced extraordinary returns, despite many companies having little or no profitability. This was unique and led to a loss for the next 10 for the SP500.
2008–2009: The mortgage-backed securities and financial crisis drove the bear market.
2020: COVID-19 shut down the global economy.
2022: Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the highest inflation in more than four decades, and the Federal Reserve's clearly communicated plan to raise interest rates aggressively created one of the most obvious risk-off environments in recent history.
2025: The introduction of broad U.S. tariffs under the Trump administration created another unique macroeconomic challenge.
I was born and raised in another country, where we were taught from an early age to question assumptions, challenge conventional thinking, brainstorm alternatives, and develop practical solutions rather than simply accept prevailing opinions. These are several principles I have followed since 2000. 1. The S&P 500 should remain the core of most portfolios. The U.S. remains the world's economic engine. If the S&P 500 is performing well, I have no problem being invested almost entirely in it.
However, when the S&P 500 enters prolonged periods of underperformance, I look at other broad asset classes such as value stocks, small-cap stocks, and international equities. A good example is 2000–2010, when the S&P 500 produced essentially no return over the decade, while small caps, value stocks, and international markets performed considerably better. 2. Diversification is situational. Diversification sounds appealing, but I don't believe it should be permanent for its own sake. Buffett and Bogle both emphasized concentrating in the S&P 500. I prefer to diversify only when evidence suggests the S&P 500 is unlikely to be the strongest-performing broad asset class. 3. Only a handful of managers consistently outperform. When investing outside the S&P 500, I look for managers or funds with long records of superior risk-adjusted returns. My primary criteria include strong long-term performance, Sharpe ratios above roughly 1.5, low standard deviation, and strong Sortino ratios. The stricter the screening criteria, the fewer funds qualify—and, in my experience, the higher the quality of the remaining candidates. 4. Core-and-explore is an excellent framework. I believe allocating 20–30% of a portfolio to exploring other strategies is valuable. It helped me better understand markets, risk management, and my own investing behavior. That doesn't mean trading every day or every week.
Since 2000, I began by rotating into the strongest risk-adjusted funds based on 3-, 6-, 12-, and 36-month performance, rebalancing every six months. Later, I shortened the interval to four months. Over time, the results were so strong that I gradually increased the allocation from roughly 30% of my portfolio to 55–60% and even more.
This approach is certainly not for everyone. Most investors are likely best served by simply owning a low-cost S&P 500 index fund. However, for investors willing to challenge conventional wisdom, study market behavior, and remain adaptable, I believe there are opportunities to improve both returns and risk management.
I stopped listening to economists decades ago. In my experience, their forecasts have often been less accurate than weather forecasts. I also believe that the stock market does not have a strong short-term correlation with the economy, the news cycle, or the endless stream of market narratives. Those factors may matter over the long run, but they often do a poor job of predicting what stocks will do over the next 1, 4, or 16 weeks, and sometimes even for years. A lot of market commentary is also influenced by politics and specific agendas. I generally tune that out as well. The earnings game on Wall Street is another example. Companies frequently "beat expectations," but those expectations are often adjusted downward in the weeks leading up to earnings announcements as analysts refine their forecasts. This has been part of the Wall Street playbook for decades, which is why I don't put much weight on earnings beats alone.
Valuation metrics have similar limitations. While they can provide useful context, I don't believe they are reliable tools for predicting market performance over the time frames that matter to most investors. While I think buy-and-hold is a great strategy for the majority of investors, there are situations that deserve special attention. Over the years, I developed my own model focused on identifying unique market environments. However, recognizing those opportunities also requires experience and an understanding of how markets actually behave.
The situations I pay the most attention to are those with major global implications, such as:
2008: The mortgage-backed securities and financial crisis.
2020: The COVID pandemic.
2022: Surging inflation, the war in Ukraine, and the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate-hiking campaign.
2025: Significant increases in tariffs and their potential impact on global trade.
These are the types of events that can fundamentally alter market behavior and create opportunities that are worth paying attention to.
I was never enthusiastic about buckets. It's more complicated to implement and execute.
I concentrate on total portfolio Sharp ratio = risk-adjusted returns.
The easiest is to keep a constant AA (asset allocation) of bonds + stocks using allocation funds. For the buy and hold for decades or in order to make my wife's investment decisions easier, I set up a written plan for her to invest in only 3 funds. I only trust 2 choices indexes + Vanguard funds managed by Wellington for long term hold. Wellington Management is the oldest, it's conservative, team style, and not one dominant manager, with a very cheap expense ratio. Since our money isn't with Vanguard, we would have to own the more expensive funds (not Admiral), but it's still cheap.For a younger age, until age 75 and still having a taxable account...50% VWINX(40/60)...taxable=20% VWAHX(HY Muni)...30% VSMGX (60/40 invested in 2 US + 2 international indexes). Since HY Muni bonds are hybrid, this portfolio is more like 40/60.Older than 75 or taxable account is gone: 40% VWINX(40/60)...30% VWEHX(HY Corp)...30% VSMGX(60/40). Since HY Corp bonds are hybrid, this portfolio is more like 35/65(stocks/bonds).==================Another good choice is to own up to 5 funds, maybe 3 indexes and 2 managed funds, each fund is all bonds or stocks. To maintain your target asset allocation and generate cash for expenses, consider selling shares of the fund that has appreciated the most over the previous 3–6 months. This naturally trims your winners, helps control risk, and can keep the portfolio closer to its desired allocation without requiring frequent trading.
The beauty of this approach is its simplicity: a small number of funds, minimal maintenance, and a disciplined rebalancing process. ==================As long as I'm managing the portfolio, I will be using my style, which is unique bond funds, trading every several months, and avoiding market meltdowns. Since retirement in 2018, I have achieved 11.7% annually using only bond funds, which equals a Sharpe Ratio > 3.
I have a friend who is a professor of economics and accounting. He has told me several times that economists are worse than weather forecasters.
I’ve been tracking economists’ predictions for decades, and in my view their forecasting record has often been disappointing.
Every time I see an article begin with ‘Economists say...,’ I tend to smile and become skeptical.
I also think that personal or political viewpoints can sometimes influence economic analysis, which is another reason I view many predictions with caution.
Holding mainly SPY or VOO makes sense—you’re essentially betting on the strongest capitalism in the world and riding momentum investing. SPY naturally allocates more to the best-performing stocks. Bonds, however, are a different story. Over the last 5, 10, and 15 years, BND returned roughly 0%, 1.5%, and 2.2% annually—trailing inflation. Many high-rated bond indexes are like planes without pilots, since managers can’t adjust the portfolio for changing market conditions. That’s why I’ve never held high-rated bond funds directly. Hint 1: Stocks are easy—stick to indexes. Bonds are where you can truly add value. Look for funds with strong Sharpe ratios and solid absolute performance—that’s how you find well-managed bond funds. Hint 2: Always consider unique local and global factors. Anyone who didn’t sell in early 2022 didn’t understand basic investing. After the highest inflation in over four decades, the Fed was loud and clear: rates were going up fast.
You need to be at least a little tech-savvy in today’s world and willing to do some research.
First, you need internet access.
Local cable internet prices usually range from about $40 to $60+ per month. For most households, 300–500 Mbps is more than enough. Let’s assume $60.
Second, YouTube TV is probably the best live TV streaming service overall. Let’s assume about $90 per month. You can record countless hours of content, watch on multiple TVs, start a show on one TV and continue on another, and you don’t pay extra based on the number of TVs in the house.
Third, your TVs need to support streaming, either directly or through devices like Amazon Fire TV Stick or Roku devices.
If your Wi-Fi network is solid — at least 50 Mbps throughout the house — you’re basically done.
If not, you may need a Wi-Fi extender or a better home network setup.
The streaming devices and extenders are mostly one-time purchases.
So your ongoing monthly cost is roughly:
Internet: $60
YouTube TV: $90
Total: about $150 per month.
Anything beyond that adds extra cost.
Netflix is almost a must these days. We also get Amazon benefits through Prime.
For everything else, I wait for deals. Last Black Friday, for example, I got HBO for $2.99 per month for a full year.
I’m also aggressive about negotiating. I originally got 500 Mbps internet for $40 per month for three years. When the promo ended, the price jumped to $54. I kept calling and threatening to cancel, and eventually got it back down to $40.
I also share YouTube TV and Amazon with my brother-in-law and split the cost.
Overall, these prices are still far better than traditional cable packages. You just have to learn some new tricks. It took my wife about 3–4 days to fully get used to the streaming setup.
LTC is a bad idea in most cases.
It's expensive with loopholes you will find later.
When I retired I dedicated an imaginary $500K of my total portfolio for it but invested it as normal.
My portfolio more than doubled.
You can absolutely do both. A friend of mine invested $3K in each of 10 companies back in 1990. Nine of them didn’t do much, but one—Microsoft—grew to over $1.5 million. The rest of the money he invested in the SP500 thru his 401K for many years.
It’s like having your cake and eating it too.
VGSH isn't a practical idea.
In the last 15 years it made 1.4% annually.
Inflation was about twice than that. Another myth is income investing.
There is no such thing as income investing.
The best way to test your portfolio is total performance which includes everything.
Many investors, including me, prefer risk-adjusted returns.
Just because a security has 4% distribution, it doesn't guarantee better performance or better risk-adjusted returns.
The main issue in this country is over spending and under saving.
I know people who make from $50K and all the way to $150K with this problem. Most of them know they spend too much but refuse to lower their spendings and save for retirement.
Comments
Contrary to the views expressed here and on many other investing sites, I have never simply sat through every market meltdown without taking action. During each major downturn, I spent time reading the work of John Bogle, Warren Buffett, and many other respected investors about why holding the S&P 500 for decades has historically been successful. For most investors, that approach works well. However, I never fully accepted the idea of holding through multiple declines of more than 50% (2000–2002 and 2007–2009) and several additional 20%+ corrections since then. I also studied valuation metrics extensively. Over time, I concluded that while metrics such as P/E and CAPE (Shiller P/E) and dozens of economic indicators can provide context, they often remain disconnected from market performance for years. If investors never look beyond traditional market metrics or consider broader global trends, they risk missing important opportunities—or making costly mistakes. If they can be wrong for such long periods, why do so many investors rely on them as primary decision-making tools? Here are several ideas that I rarely see discussed.
- I ignore more than 95% of financial articles, TV experts, academic opinions, and market commentary. Instead, I remain flexible and evaluate multiple perspectives.
- The single most important indicator I follow is price. Price represents where buyers and sellers agree in real time. It isn't an opinion—it is the market's collective judgment. GDP, inflation, P/E, CAPE, employment reports, sentiment surveys, and hundreds of other indicators are simply snapshots. None of them determine market direction by themselves.
- I focus on the bigger picture. Major market declines are usually driven by unique global events rather than valuation alone.
- Since 2010, I've also argued that while Europe remains a wonderful destination for vacations and retirement for some people, it faces long-term structural challenges. Aging demographics, increasing regulation, slower innovation, and expanding social welfare obligations continue to pressure economic growth. I believe this is also a warning worth considering for the United States.
Consider some examples of when I took actions.- 1995–2000: Stocks produced extraordinary returns, despite many companies having little or no profitability. This was unique and led to a loss for the next 10 for the SP500.
- 2008–2009: The mortgage-backed securities and financial crisis drove the bear market.
- 2020: COVID-19 shut down the global economy.
- 2022: Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the highest inflation in more than four decades, and the Federal Reserve's clearly communicated plan to raise interest rates aggressively created one of the most obvious risk-off environments in recent history.
- 2025: The introduction of broad U.S. tariffs under the Trump administration created another unique macroeconomic challenge.
I was born and raised in another country, where we were taught from an early age to question assumptions, challenge conventional thinking, brainstorm alternatives, and develop practical solutions rather than simply accept prevailing opinions. These are several principles I have followed since 2000. 1. The S&P 500 should remain the core of most portfolios. The U.S. remains the world's economic engine. If the S&P 500 is performing well, I have no problem being invested almost entirely in it. However, when the S&P 500 enters prolonged periods of underperformance, I look at other broad asset classes such as value stocks, small-cap stocks, and international equities. A good example is 2000–2010, when the S&P 500 produced essentially no return over the decade, while small caps, value stocks, and international markets performed considerably better. 2. Diversification is situational. Diversification sounds appealing, but I don't believe it should be permanent for its own sake. Buffett and Bogle both emphasized concentrating in the S&P 500. I prefer to diversify only when evidence suggests the S&P 500 is unlikely to be the strongest-performing broad asset class. 3. Only a handful of managers consistently outperform. When investing outside the S&P 500, I look for managers or funds with long records of superior risk-adjusted returns. My primary criteria include strong long-term performance, Sharpe ratios above roughly 1.5, low standard deviation, and strong Sortino ratios. The stricter the screening criteria, the fewer funds qualify—and, in my experience, the higher the quality of the remaining candidates. 4. Core-and-explore is an excellent framework. I believe allocating 20–30% of a portfolio to exploring other strategies is valuable. It helped me better understand markets, risk management, and my own investing behavior. That doesn't mean trading every day or every week. Since 2000, I began by rotating into the strongest risk-adjusted funds based on 3-, 6-, 12-, and 36-month performance, rebalancing every six months. Later, I shortened the interval to four months. Over time, the results were so strong that I gradually increased the allocation from roughly 30% of my portfolio to 55–60% and even more. This approach is certainly not for everyone. Most investors are likely best served by simply owning a low-cost S&P 500 index fund. However, for investors willing to challenge conventional wisdom, study market behavior, and remain adaptable, I believe there are opportunities to improve both returns and risk management.Post: Open Questions
Link to comment from July 4, 2026
I stopped listening to economists decades ago. In my experience, their forecasts have often been less accurate than weather forecasts. I also believe that the stock market does not have a strong short-term correlation with the economy, the news cycle, or the endless stream of market narratives. Those factors may matter over the long run, but they often do a poor job of predicting what stocks will do over the next 1, 4, or 16 weeks, and sometimes even for years. A lot of market commentary is also influenced by politics and specific agendas. I generally tune that out as well. The earnings game on Wall Street is another example. Companies frequently "beat expectations," but those expectations are often adjusted downward in the weeks leading up to earnings announcements as analysts refine their forecasts. This has been part of the Wall Street playbook for decades, which is why I don't put much weight on earnings beats alone. Valuation metrics have similar limitations. While they can provide useful context, I don't believe they are reliable tools for predicting market performance over the time frames that matter to most investors. While I think buy-and-hold is a great strategy for the majority of investors, there are situations that deserve special attention. Over the years, I developed my own model focused on identifying unique market environments. However, recognizing those opportunities also requires experience and an understanding of how markets actually behave. The situations I pay the most attention to are those with major global implications, such as:
- 2008: The mortgage-backed securities and financial crisis.
- 2020: The COVID pandemic.
- 2022: Surging inflation, the war in Ukraine, and the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate-hiking campaign.
- 2025: Significant increases in tariffs and their potential impact on global trade.
These are the types of events that can fundamentally alter market behavior and create opportunities that are worth paying attention to.Post: The Market’s Unpredictability
Link to comment from June 15, 2026
I was never enthusiastic about buckets. It's more complicated to implement and execute. I concentrate on total portfolio Sharp ratio = risk-adjusted returns. The easiest is to keep a constant AA (asset allocation) of bonds + stocks using allocation funds. For the buy and hold for decades or in order to make my wife's investment decisions easier, I set up a written plan for her to invest in only 3 funds. I only trust 2 choices indexes + Vanguard funds managed by Wellington for long term hold. Wellington Management is the oldest, it's conservative, team style, and not one dominant manager, with a very cheap expense ratio. Since our money isn't with Vanguard, we would have to own the more expensive funds (not Admiral), but it's still cheap. For a younger age, until age 75 and still having a taxable account...50% VWINX(40/60)...taxable=20% VWAHX(HY Muni)...30% VSMGX (60/40 invested in 2 US + 2 international indexes). Since HY Muni bonds are hybrid, this portfolio is more like 40/60. Older than 75 or taxable account is gone: 40% VWINX(40/60)...30% VWEHX(HY Corp)...30% VSMGX(60/40). Since HY Corp bonds are hybrid, this portfolio is more like 35/65(stocks/bonds). ================== Another good choice is to own up to 5 funds, maybe 3 indexes and 2 managed funds, each fund is all bonds or stocks. To maintain your target asset allocation and generate cash for expenses, consider selling shares of the fund that has appreciated the most over the previous 3–6 months. This naturally trims your winners, helps control risk, and can keep the portfolio closer to its desired allocation without requiring frequent trading. The beauty of this approach is its simplicity: a small number of funds, minimal maintenance, and a disciplined rebalancing process. ================== As long as I'm managing the portfolio, I will be using my style, which is unique bond funds, trading every several months, and avoiding market meltdowns. Since retirement in 2018, I have achieved 11.7% annually using only bond funds, which equals a Sharpe Ratio > 3.
Post: Bucket Strategy
Link to comment from June 7, 2026
I have a friend who is a professor of economics and accounting. He has told me several times that economists are worse than weather forecasters. I’ve been tracking economists’ predictions for decades, and in my view their forecasting record has often been disappointing. Every time I see an article begin with ‘Economists say...,’ I tend to smile and become skeptical. I also think that personal or political viewpoints can sometimes influence economic analysis, which is another reason I view many predictions with caution.
Post: Inflation and Innovation
Link to comment from May 25, 2026
Holding mainly SPY or VOO makes sense—you’re essentially betting on the strongest capitalism in the world and riding momentum investing. SPY naturally allocates more to the best-performing stocks. Bonds, however, are a different story. Over the last 5, 10, and 15 years, BND returned roughly 0%, 1.5%, and 2.2% annually—trailing inflation. Many high-rated bond indexes are like planes without pilots, since managers can’t adjust the portfolio for changing market conditions. That’s why I’ve never held high-rated bond funds directly. Hint 1: Stocks are easy—stick to indexes. Bonds are where you can truly add value. Look for funds with strong Sharpe ratios and solid absolute performance—that’s how you find well-managed bond funds. Hint 2: Always consider unique local and global factors. Anyone who didn’t sell in early 2022 didn’t understand basic investing. After the highest inflation in over four decades, the Fed was loud and clear: rates were going up fast.
Post: Resilient Investing
Link to comment from May 18, 2026
You need to be at least a little tech-savvy in today’s world and willing to do some research. First, you need internet access. Local cable internet prices usually range from about $40 to $60+ per month. For most households, 300–500 Mbps is more than enough. Let’s assume $60. Second, YouTube TV is probably the best live TV streaming service overall. Let’s assume about $90 per month. You can record countless hours of content, watch on multiple TVs, start a show on one TV and continue on another, and you don’t pay extra based on the number of TVs in the house. Third, your TVs need to support streaming, either directly or through devices like Amazon Fire TV Stick or Roku devices. If your Wi-Fi network is solid — at least 50 Mbps throughout the house — you’re basically done. If not, you may need a Wi-Fi extender or a better home network setup. The streaming devices and extenders are mostly one-time purchases. So your ongoing monthly cost is roughly:
- Internet: $60
- YouTube TV: $90
Total: about $150 per month. Anything beyond that adds extra cost. Netflix is almost a must these days. We also get Amazon benefits through Prime. For everything else, I wait for deals. Last Black Friday, for example, I got HBO for $2.99 per month for a full year. I’m also aggressive about negotiating. I originally got 500 Mbps internet for $40 per month for three years. When the promo ended, the price jumped to $54. I kept calling and threatening to cancel, and eventually got it back down to $40. I also share YouTube TV and Amazon with my brother-in-law and split the cost. Overall, these prices are still far better than traditional cable packages. You just have to learn some new tricks. It took my wife about 3–4 days to fully get used to the streaming setup.Post: Living On Autopilot
Link to comment from May 9, 2026
LTC is a bad idea in most cases. It's expensive with loopholes you will find later. When I retired I dedicated an imaginary $500K of my total portfolio for it but invested it as normal. My portfolio more than doubled.
Post: Long Term Care
Link to comment from May 9, 2026
You can absolutely do both. A friend of mine invested $3K in each of 10 companies back in 1990. Nine of them didn’t do much, but one—Microsoft—grew to over $1.5 million. The rest of the money he invested in the SP500 thru his 401K for many years. It’s like having your cake and eating it too.
Post: Driving Prices
Link to comment from April 25, 2026
VGSH isn't a practical idea. In the last 15 years it made 1.4% annually. Inflation was about twice than that. Another myth is income investing. There is no such thing as income investing. The best way to test your portfolio is total performance which includes everything. Many investors, including me, prefer risk-adjusted returns. Just because a security has 4% distribution, it doesn't guarantee better performance or better risk-adjusted returns.
Post: Staying Rational
Link to comment from April 18, 2026
The main issue in this country is over spending and under saving. I know people who make from $50K and all the way to $150K with this problem. Most of them know they spend too much but refuse to lower their spendings and save for retirement.
Post: “We did everything right.” Maybe not. Retirement income should not be an unpleasant surprise.
Link to comment from April 11, 2026