FREE NEWSLETTER
Go to main Forum page »
Something in the news recently caught my notice and has me wondering. I want to emphasize that I’m not trying to be political, and I would be disappointed if any comments were. As you may know, I’m not even from your country; I’m Irish and live in the UK. So the nuance is beyond me. All that aside, do you think the recent dismissal of the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics should cause me any concern about the future accuracy of US economic data sources? I’m hoping for a non-political analysis, purely from an economic and data integrity standpoint
Apparently, there is an assumption that all of the previous US “official” government data has been accurate and untainted by politics. Even inflation we were told was “transient” and of course there are the myriad covid statistics that were promoted. I’m of the opinion that accuracy in reporting left the barn years ago, as did fair and unbiased news reporting.
Mark: There is an old saying that says, “Figures never lie, but sometimes liars figure.”
The US is not the only country in which political gamesmanship is practiced when reporting economic data, I am sorry to say.
I am not familiar with the UK method of reporting economic data, nor am I concerned about it, but I would guess the same shenanigans occur across the pond as well.
The accuracy of prior reports has been a concern as well…In August 2024, “the Labor Department said monthly payroll figures overstated job growth by roughly 818,000 in the 12 months that ended in March. That suggests employers added about 174,000 jobs per month during that period, down from the previously reported pace of about 242,000 jobs — a downward revision of about 28 percent.” CNBC reported this was the largest adjustment since 2009.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/21/business/economy/us-jobs-economy.html#:~:text=The%20large%20size%20of%20the,revised%20up%20instead%20of%20down.
You can always depend on independent data such as ADP’s payroll report.
We live in a time when every side can twist lies into truths and truths into lies—complete with convincing images to support any narrative. If something is repeated often enough, loudly enough, and with enough emotion, it becomes the accepted reality of the moment. And it will destroy us.
Thoreau wrote in 1854, “The mass of men lead lives of quiet desperation.” That may still ring true, but I refuse to meet despair with resignation. This nation has weathered Civil War, Vietnam, Watergate, and other eras of deep political distrust. “And it will destroy us”? Is that really certain or is it a challenge? Many may surrender to desperation. I choose resistance with hope. Those who bet against Americans have yet learned our history – we’ve always endured, and then thrived, through persistence and hope.
Never has there been a time in my life where critical thinking is more important.
In the AI age, it’s futile for any government to artificially falsify economic data to outsmart the intelligence of the market.
Greece and Argentina tried it in the 2000s; China has tried and is still trying. The market was not fooled.
You can fool some people some of the time, but not all people all the time. (often attributed Abraham Lincoln, though the source is debated)
For any private or governmental group or agency, if someone representing it is fired for telling the truth, the agency no longer has credibility. And good luck regaining it.
In this case, however, the individual wasn’t fired for telling the truth. She was fired for exactly the opposite.
Definitely, this is a very significant development. I am definitely worried and have usually been the guy who tells everyone to calm down, that “everything always reverts to the mean”, etc.
I agree but it depends who is calculating the mean….
I am concerned as well, especially about how this could bleed over into messing with CPI for COLA. I had a long conversation with Chat GPT this afternoon. Chat GPT assessed that most likely scenario was pressure on future CPI framing and methodology, but not yet likely on full on overt manipulation of the CPI. Primarily this is because the current administration has pulled back from the precipice previously because the market reaction. But I would expect this to be yet another data point that would encourage investors to move to alternative assets, like gold and foreign bonds and equities, to hedge against further fall of the dollar. At some point we might hit some sort of critical mass where enough investor confidence is lost that the administration can’t just fix it by changing their mind.
CPI is a rigged game, period.
When you calculate COLA info and you don’t count three of the most important components in the cost of living for most Americans, what is actually being accomplished?
Yes, we all should. We need to be concerned about credible data. I never gave it a thought before, now I am worried.
I suppose that if an appointor’s appointees have a history of being un or under qualified for their appointed responsibilities, or if loyalty trumps accuracy, there could be cause for concern. On the other hand, perhaps the prior appointor’s appointee was un or under qualified, or their actions were based on loyalty over accuracy; in that case, everything will be just fine. If only I could be in the room where it happens….
One could check the appointee’s credentials. One might also consider that the appointee simply reports the results of a lot of work done by others according to an existing process.
True, if intentionally misleading in order to sully the president, I’m confident that many whistle-blowers within the department would come forward.
Yes. See also here.
This is a non political thought:
it remains to be seen.