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What Bangladesh Taught Me About Enough

Andrew Clements  |  Apr 16, 2026

"Thank you Sundar for sharing your experiences and your encouragement to keep writing. I appreciate it."
- Andrew Clements
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Fixing Social Security once and for all

R Quinn  |  Apr 15, 2026

"It would help if the government stopped "borrowing" (stealing) from the Social Security fund and leaving IOU's. There shouldn't be any cap on taxed wages. The real fix is to grandfather everyone in who is on SS today or has started paying, and say that after a future date SS will end. All new workers will be automatically signed up for a diversified, opt-out, Roth IRA (you're signed up automatically but have the option to quit). If AI does take over and start doing all the jobs there should be an AI workers tax. That would go toward a guaranteed minimum income or lowering the work week from a 40 hour 5 day work week to 4 or 3 or even 2 days with a contribution toward the retirement Roth IRA. I'm sure corporations would scream bloody murder about that, but they did the same thing when the 40 hour 5 day work week was mandated."
- Tim Mueller
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Penny Wise, Pound Foolish

DAN SMITH  |  Apr 12, 2026

"I used to get a year subscription to the local print newspaper by waiting until I would see one of these collage student sales people in the supermarket who I could talk down to a good price along with a bunch of gift cards. They disappeared after the pandemic, so I started buying only the Sunday paper to save money. I just figured out last week that the undiscounted full price of only the Sunday newspaper times fifty two weeks is the same or more than a full weekly subscription used to be."
- Tim Mueller
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One Good Call?

Mark Crothers  |  Apr 14, 2026

"Thanks Mark for sharing this. Since the advisor seems to believe in shifting asset allocation based on market conditions, did you analyze the portfolio to see whether they had made timing calls like this that did worse than doing nothing? The advisor made the argument that he only had to make one right call like this to justify the fees. That seems right - as long as they don’t make any other wrong ones?"
- Jeremy Hockenstein
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A Bit More Humble

ArticleEdmund Marsh  |  Apr 18, 2026

I LOVE TO PLAN. My wife, Sharon, often catches me nestled in my chair, gazing out a window at a distant object as my mind wanders even farther afield. My musings become scribbles on a scrap of paper, destined for discussion with Sharon at length over coffee and long walks. Eventually, we hammer out the settled strategies we think will best bring us happiness in adventures ranging from our next hike to the next few decades of life. Of course, I know our intended track, or even the final destination, may change over time. I'm just a little boat on a big sea, blown about by winds and carried along by deep currents that may push me far off my charted course. Still, though it may be somewhat of an illusion, I cling to the comfort of control. Smooth sailing. And for most of 2025, life was comfortable. In April, I shifted to part-time work as a physical therapist. I termed my new lifestyle “semi-retirement”. My reduced salary, added to Sharon’s contribution from a few hours’ work each month, still gave us enough income from our jobs to cover expenses, with leftovers for a little investing and so forth. Along with that, we gained enough new-found, free time to pursue a bit more fun while catching up on projects around the house. As an added bonus, I expected delaying full retirement a couple of years might lead to more happiness in the decades ahead. How so? Because my post-retirement plan was still a work-in-progress. “I studied and planned for two years before I retired,” Mike told me at a large family gathering. In his mid-70s, his excitement was evident as he recounted his active lifestyle. At home, his schedule includes participation in our state’s Master Gardener program and regular trips to the gym. Abroad, he organizes groups to walk the Camino de Santiago in Spain.  I had a yen for a fulfilling retirement like Mike’s. My roster of reasons to jump out of bed each morning might have a different twist or two, but I wanted the same zest for living. My unique recipe for retirement happiness still needed time to cook, however. Oh, I knew I had plenty to keep my hands active. Even so, I wasn’t yet convinced I could substitute the mental stimulation provided by my patients and colleagues. According to a decades-long study from Harvard University, some folks discover that work supplies satisfaction not found elsewhere. I have a nagging suspicion I’m one of those restless souls, and I dreaded the thought of finding myself adrift, with little sense of purpose beyond indulging my own selfish needs. And let’s face it: I still get a thrill from watching my money grow. Earning an income delays the need to plunge my fingers into my pile of savings to pay the grocery bill. All told, I figured my best move was to stay put until a clear exit appeared. Unexpected storm. Meanwhile, my employer was moving in its own interest. In December, I learned that with the new year came new management for our outpatient physical therapy clinics. Our hospital system opted to outsource operations with the hope of securing guaranteed revenue. After the revamping, my boss would keep some new iteration of her job, but the outpatient clinics would report to the new administration, rather than her. The news was a blow to my ordered life. No longer was I sailing through calm waters toward the sunset of my choosing. Instead, I faced the probability of turbulence as our clinic transitioned to the new system. And we were already struggling to implement a comprehensive computer software replacement that would take many more months to fashion into a serviceable tool. I sensed danger ahead. Or, at the very least, a year or two of starts, sputters and stops before the clinic machine was humming again. I decided to bail, and on February 18th clocked my last day with my former employer, four days after Sharon. It turns out my radar was right. The details are dirty, but the gist is the transition is stalled and leadership of the affected clinics in limbo. New direction. On the face of the situation, it seems my “clear exit” did indeed appear, and that I acted with autonomy to choose the course of my life. After all, I had exercised the option of jumping out of a job headed south and into the retirement I had dreamed of for decades. On top of that, I landed in a new, part-time job with Miranda, an old friend. Back in December, Miranda called to ask if I could help cover patients in her clinic while she was out on extended leave. I wasn’t seeking more work, but she needed help. I couldn’t refuse. So, starting with one half-day per week in January, I’m now up to two or three half-days. Miranda’s made it clear I’m welcome to work more, but I’m satisfied for now. And the atmosphere in the clinic is great. It’s staffed by easy-going folks who are serious about patient care. Still, it’s hard to shake the sense I’ve been scrambling to right myself after getting shoved off balance. During the last few weeks with my former employer, I had the feeling I was getting pushed out of a satisfying job before I was ready to leave. My usual optimism suffered, as did my sleep habits and typical interests, like gardening and writing. Why? Perhaps the answer is the sudden, unplanned departure from my job. Research indicates forced retirement can lead to negative feelings about health and to depression. I have to admit I found my new temperament described in the pages of a research paper.  Other studies on job loss, found here, here and here, examine and compare the emotions experienced by losing a job to that of other types of loss, such as grief after the death of a loved one. Considered in this light, the Kubler-Ross model of the five stages of grief might help someone--like me–understand and deal with the psychological aftermath of job loss. Peering ahead. Back to my reality, I know I’m painting a grim picture of a life that’s actually very blessed. Others have experienced far worse with fewer complaints. My perceived suffering pales beside that of a person who’s lost a loved one, or an income needed for survival. Also, as I get used to the shift in my lifestyle, I’m beginning to find my groove again. Last spring, I started the season thinking I was at life’s helm, confident I could steer in any direction and choose my pace. I was thankful, but a little smug as I laid plans for my vision of retirement. One year later, I’m still planning and still thankful–but a bit more humble.   Ed is a semi-retired physical therapist who lives and works in a small community near Atlanta. When he's not spending time with his church, family or friends, you may find him tending his garden and wondering if he will ever fully retire. Check out Ed’s earlier articles.
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Staying Rational

ArticleAdam M. Grossman  |  Apr 18, 2026

IT'S BEEN MORE than six years since Covid first entered our vocabulary. It goes without saying that investors have experienced a lot, and for better or worse, recent market events provide some useful lessons. The first has to do with the nature of the stock market. What drives stock prices? Open a finance textbook, and the answer will be clear: The value of a stock should equal the sum of the company’s future profits. This idea is known as intrinsic value, and it’s the textbook explanation of how stock prices work. But there’s clearly a disconnect, since stock prices bounce around far more than the math suggests they should.  How can we square this circle? Over the long term, the data tell us that intrinsic value is a valid idea. Chart the price of any given stock, then overlay the company’s profits, and there will often be a reasonably close relationship. But only if you’re Rip Van Winkle. Over shorter periods of time, anything can happen. Stocks often move far above or far below their intrinsic values in response to the news of the day.  Especially during times of economic uncertainty, intrinsic value analysis is typically cast aside and replaced by some combination of emotion, conjecture, speculation and storytelling. That’s what we saw in the early months of 2020. Stores were closed, employees had been sent home and the economy went into recession. And since no one had a crystal ball, that’s when storytellers were able to step in with their extreme predictions, causing the stock market to drop more than 30% in the space of six weeks. The lesson for investors: No one can predict when the next crisis will roll around or what form it will take. But there is one very reasonable way to be able to keep it in perspective: by remembering that, at the end of the day, intrinsic value is what matters, and ultimately that’s what drives stock prices. Basic arithmetic illustrates how this can help us manage through the next crisis. Consider that the price-to-earnings ratio of the U.S. stock market has historically averaged around 16. The average company’s total stock market value, in other words, has been equal to about 16 times its annual profits.  Now let’s imagine that the next crisis results in every company in America losing an entire year of earnings. That’s extreme and hasn’t happened since the Depression, but it’s useful as a thought experiment. In that scenario, what would be the impact to those companies’ intrinsic value? In simple terms, it would be just one-sixteenth, or a modest 6%. What if a crisis were so severe that a company lost two years of earnings? Using this simple model, the impact would be about 12%. This is meaningful, I believe, because crises typically result in stock price declines that are far more severe than just 6% or 12%. In 2000 and in 2008, the market dropped more than 50%. While every crisis is different, I think it’s useful to keep these numbers in mind whenever the next geopolitical event causes stocks to drop. When that occurs, storytellers will inevitably take over, and the news will be downbeat. But if stocks drop to an extreme degree, as they have in the past, we can probably view it as an overreaction. That won’t help anyone’s portfolio recover any faster, but it should help us tune out the worst of the forecasters and maintain our equanimity. How else can you maintain an even keel during a market crisis? It’s important to understand the impact of recency bias. This bias is the tendency to extrapolate from current conditions, to assume that the future will look like the present, and to downplay the possibility that things might change. That tendency is what contributed to the cycle of negative news during the depths of 2020, and this is why I think it’s so important for investors to be aware of market history.  Again, extensive analysis isn’t required. We need only look back across some of the crises the country has weathered, from the Civil War to the Depression to World War II. In each case, the economy recovered and went on to become larger and stronger than before. The lesson for investors: In the depths of a crisis, it’s very difficult to know when or how it will end. But a sense of history can help carry us through. Those are ways to manage through a crisis. Covid also provided a lesson on how to prepare—specifically, how to prepare our portfolios—for a future downturn. In 2022, investors were caught flat-footed when popular total-bond market funds delivered surprising losses. These funds are one pillar of the well-known three-fund portfolio and have traditionally been viewed as the default choice for a set-it-and-forget-it bond allocation. But in 2022, when the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates, these funds dropped a surprising 13%. That was during the same year that the U.S. stock market dropped nearly 20%, creating a very difficult situation for those in retirement and needing to withdraw from their portfolios. The lesson for investors: Total-bond market funds may be well diversified, but they carry risk along another very important dimension known as duration. This is a bond metric that measures, in simple terms, how long it will take for bondholders to be repaid, and it’s a key determinant of risk. The longer the duration, the greater the risk of loss when rates rise. While total-bond market funds have holdings across a broad range of durations, they average out to nearly six years. That’s why they lost so much value in 2022. What’s the alternative? Short-term bond funds tend to have a duration in the neighborhood of just two years. As a result, in 2022, short-term government bond funds like Vanguard’s Short-Term Treasury ETF (ticker: VGSH) lost a far more manageable 4% of their value. To be sure, every crisis is different, and it’s easy to rationalize about the past once it’s in the past. But these lessons, I think, can help us better prepare both our emotions and our portfolios for whatever comes next.   Adam M. Grossman is the founder of Mayport, a fixed-fee wealth management firm. Sign up for Adam's Daily Ideas email, follow him on X @AdamMGrossman and check out his earlier articles.
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Navigating a Turbulent Career

ArticleRichard Connor  |  Apr 18, 2026

A RECENT article by Adam Grossman relayed an interesting story of the 2015 merger of Kraft and Heinz.  One of the aspects that made this merger unique was the involvement of Warren Buffet. Adam’s story is a cautionary tale for investors – research shows that, more often than not, the hoped-for corporate synergies and growth are elusive. The story provides more evidence for the benefits of indexing to investors. There is, however, another side to this story that is very important to an individual’s personal financial life. In addition to being investors, most of us are, or were, employees of a corporation.  What if you are an employee of a company that is acquiring another company, being acquired by another company, or part of a merger?  How do you navigate the challenges of this significant career event? In late November 1985, I interviewed with RCA’s Astro Space division in East Windsor, NJ.  Several weeks later I interviewed with GE Aerospace in King of Prussia, PA.  In between those 2 interviews it was announced that GE was acquiring RCA. I received an offer for a position in the thermal engineering group of both companies. The GE offer was for $32,000, $4,000 more than the RCA offer.  The GE plant was about 8 miles from our home; the RCA plant was 62 miles from our home.   I accepted the GE offer.  When I called the RCA manager to tell him my decision, he was professional and understanding.  He remarked that “who knows, we may end up working together and you got a better deal out of it”. Four months later that RCA manager became the senior manager of the merged thermal engineering organization – my new boss’s boss. Seven years later my division was sold to Martin Marietta, whose space operations were based in Denver, CO. Two years later Martin Marietta merged with Lockheed, in Sunnyvale, CA, to form Lockheed Martin.  Later that year it was announced that the company was closing its 2 east coast plants and moving the work to Sunnyvale and Denver.   Over the 31 years starting in 1986, I was part of numerous acquisitions, mergers, two plant shut-downs, and being sold to a private equity company. Somehow, I managed to stay employed, and grow my career. I wasn’t special – hundreds of colleagues trod the same path. When I look back I can identify some of the attributes that helped me navigate a turbulent career. Build your Reputation: Be someone that people want to hire. If you move up, be someone that people want to work for. My first senior manager position came about because the hiring team remembered me from 4 years previous  Maintain Flexibility: Are you willing to travel or relocate? Would you take a lateral position, or even a step down, if it meant keeping a job?  During my career I traveled extensively, commuted 62 miles for four years, and took new positions that challenged me and my family.  Focus on your Skills: What are the skills and behaviors that are valued by your company, and differentiate successful employees? These include technical, leadership, managerial, and interpersonal skills. My first GE manager provided a sound technical base, but also taught me just as much about work ethic, and professionalism. Focus on the Culture:  Combing organizations means combining cultures, just as much as products or processes.  This may require you to be open to a different way of doing things. It requires a willingness to learn and grow.  It will also likely require some diplomacy skills.  Change is hard for employees, and nobody enjoys being told their processes or products are inferior.  When we merged with RCA, we found there was a significant difference in the way that managers and senior technical leaders challenged their employees in public forums, in front of customers.  GE preferred to work out technical differences and approaches in-house, and present a united front to customers. This took some time to resolve into a shared approach. Focus on the People:  When my first GE manager retired, we held a group luncheon. He was universally liked and respected.  Someone described him as the best “BTU chaser” he’d ever seen, which was high praise. He gave a short speech at his retirement, where he discussed the exciting space programs he had supported. He ended that the thing that made his career special wasn’t the projects and technology, it was the people.   I was also fortunate to work on some exciting, ground-breaking projects.  It wasn’t always easy, and the path certainly wasn’t straight.  Looking back, it is the people I think of most, and I miss the most.    Richard Connor is a semi-retired aerospace engineer with a keen interest in finance. He enjoys a wide variety of other interests, including chasing grandkids, space, sports, travel, winemaking and reading. Follow Rick on Twitter @RConnor609 and check out his earlier articles.
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Scent of a Cheapskate: Frugality Gone Wrong

Mark Crothers  |  Apr 17, 2026

"Finally, I've one upped you!!!!!"
- DAN SMITH
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Financial Tension

William Housley  |  Apr 17, 2026

"It is likely none of us on Humble Dollar have enormous wealth 🤔 Some, likely many, like you do what we can."
- William Housley
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Do retirees really struggle financially? Why and what to do?

R Quinn  |  Apr 17, 2026

"When we first retired 2 years ago, I wasn’t sure how things would be, but it has turned out like the middle income class that you mentioned in the studies. I also agree with what you wrote about location: high vs low cost areas. And so many people don’t have pensions now. One thing I thought of while I was reading your article and the comments was if multi-generational living will become more popular. We have friends who built a home in the late 1990s for this purpose so that one of the mothers could live with them. Chris"
- baldscreen
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The IRA Decision That Affects Your Kids

David Lancaster  |  Apr 17, 2026

"It looks like, since children over age 18 are not an "eligible designated beneficiary," the distribution is 10 years until 12-31 of the 10th year after death. BUT the difference is if a person has not started RMDs, the 10 years has no minimum, but if RMDs have started, the beneficiary must use the single life expectancy table (for themself), until the last year when the account must be emptied. This is for when the surviving spouse rolls the other spouse's traditional IRA into their own. Just make sure you've named beneficiaries and that they are the ones you want named."
- JeffreyK
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Social Security Survivor Benefits for Spouses

James McGlynn CFA RICP®  |  Apr 16, 2026

"Thank you, James."
- Dunn Werking
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What Bangladesh Taught Me About Enough

Andrew Clements  |  Apr 16, 2026

"Thank you Sundar for sharing your experiences and your encouragement to keep writing. I appreciate it."
- Andrew Clements
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Fixing Social Security once and for all

R Quinn  |  Apr 15, 2026

"It would help if the government stopped "borrowing" (stealing) from the Social Security fund and leaving IOU's. There shouldn't be any cap on taxed wages. The real fix is to grandfather everyone in who is on SS today or has started paying, and say that after a future date SS will end. All new workers will be automatically signed up for a diversified, opt-out, Roth IRA (you're signed up automatically but have the option to quit). If AI does take over and start doing all the jobs there should be an AI workers tax. That would go toward a guaranteed minimum income or lowering the work week from a 40 hour 5 day work week to 4 or 3 or even 2 days with a contribution toward the retirement Roth IRA. I'm sure corporations would scream bloody murder about that, but they did the same thing when the 40 hour 5 day work week was mandated."
- Tim Mueller
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Penny Wise, Pound Foolish

DAN SMITH  |  Apr 12, 2026

"I used to get a year subscription to the local print newspaper by waiting until I would see one of these collage student sales people in the supermarket who I could talk down to a good price along with a bunch of gift cards. They disappeared after the pandemic, so I started buying only the Sunday paper to save money. I just figured out last week that the undiscounted full price of only the Sunday newspaper times fifty two weeks is the same or more than a full weekly subscription used to be."
- Tim Mueller
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One Good Call?

Mark Crothers  |  Apr 14, 2026

"Thanks Mark for sharing this. Since the advisor seems to believe in shifting asset allocation based on market conditions, did you analyze the portfolio to see whether they had made timing calls like this that did worse than doing nothing? The advisor made the argument that he only had to make one right call like this to justify the fees. That seems right - as long as they don’t make any other wrong ones?"
- Jeremy Hockenstein
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A Bit More Humble

ArticleEdmund Marsh  |  Apr 18, 2026

I LOVE TO PLAN. My wife, Sharon, often catches me nestled in my chair, gazing out a window at a distant object as my mind wanders even farther afield. My musings become scribbles on a scrap of paper, destined for discussion with Sharon at length over coffee and long walks. Eventually, we hammer out the settled strategies we think will best bring us happiness in adventures ranging from our next hike to the next few decades of life. Of course, I know our intended track, or even the final destination, may change over time. I'm just a little boat on a big sea, blown about by winds and carried along by deep currents that may push me far off my charted course. Still, though it may be somewhat of an illusion, I cling to the comfort of control. Smooth sailing. And for most of 2025, life was comfortable. In April, I shifted to part-time work as a physical therapist. I termed my new lifestyle “semi-retirement”. My reduced salary, added to Sharon’s contribution from a few hours’ work each month, still gave us enough income from our jobs to cover expenses, with leftovers for a little investing and so forth. Along with that, we gained enough new-found, free time to pursue a bit more fun while catching up on projects around the house. As an added bonus, I expected delaying full retirement a couple of years might lead to more happiness in the decades ahead. How so? Because my post-retirement plan was still a work-in-progress. “I studied and planned for two years before I retired,” Mike told me at a large family gathering. In his mid-70s, his excitement was evident as he recounted his active lifestyle. At home, his schedule includes participation in our state’s Master Gardener program and regular trips to the gym. Abroad, he organizes groups to walk the Camino de Santiago in Spain.  I had a yen for a fulfilling retirement like Mike’s. My roster of reasons to jump out of bed each morning might have a different twist or two, but I wanted the same zest for living. My unique recipe for retirement happiness still needed time to cook, however. Oh, I knew I had plenty to keep my hands active. Even so, I wasn’t yet convinced I could substitute the mental stimulation provided by my patients and colleagues. According to a decades-long study from Harvard University, some folks discover that work supplies satisfaction not found elsewhere. I have a nagging suspicion I’m one of those restless souls, and I dreaded the thought of finding myself adrift, with little sense of purpose beyond indulging my own selfish needs. And let’s face it: I still get a thrill from watching my money grow. Earning an income delays the need to plunge my fingers into my pile of savings to pay the grocery bill. All told, I figured my best move was to stay put until a clear exit appeared. Unexpected storm. Meanwhile, my employer was moving in its own interest. In December, I learned that with the new year came new management for our outpatient physical therapy clinics. Our hospital system opted to outsource operations with the hope of securing guaranteed revenue. After the revamping, my boss would keep some new iteration of her job, but the outpatient clinics would report to the new administration, rather than her. The news was a blow to my ordered life. No longer was I sailing through calm waters toward the sunset of my choosing. Instead, I faced the probability of turbulence as our clinic transitioned to the new system. And we were already struggling to implement a comprehensive computer software replacement that would take many more months to fashion into a serviceable tool. I sensed danger ahead. Or, at the very least, a year or two of starts, sputters and stops before the clinic machine was humming again. I decided to bail, and on February 18th clocked my last day with my former employer, four days after Sharon. It turns out my radar was right. The details are dirty, but the gist is the transition is stalled and leadership of the affected clinics in limbo. New direction. On the face of the situation, it seems my “clear exit” did indeed appear, and that I acted with autonomy to choose the course of my life. After all, I had exercised the option of jumping out of a job headed south and into the retirement I had dreamed of for decades. On top of that, I landed in a new, part-time job with Miranda, an old friend. Back in December, Miranda called to ask if I could help cover patients in her clinic while she was out on extended leave. I wasn’t seeking more work, but she needed help. I couldn’t refuse. So, starting with one half-day per week in January, I’m now up to two or three half-days. Miranda’s made it clear I’m welcome to work more, but I’m satisfied for now. And the atmosphere in the clinic is great. It’s staffed by easy-going folks who are serious about patient care. Still, it’s hard to shake the sense I’ve been scrambling to right myself after getting shoved off balance. During the last few weeks with my former employer, I had the feeling I was getting pushed out of a satisfying job before I was ready to leave. My usual optimism suffered, as did my sleep habits and typical interests, like gardening and writing. Why? Perhaps the answer is the sudden, unplanned departure from my job. Research indicates forced retirement can lead to negative feelings about health and to depression. I have to admit I found my new temperament described in the pages of a research paper.  Other studies on job loss, found here, here and here, examine and compare the emotions experienced by losing a job to that of other types of loss, such as grief after the death of a loved one. Considered in this light, the Kubler-Ross model of the five stages of grief might help someone--like me–understand and deal with the psychological aftermath of job loss. Peering ahead. Back to my reality, I know I’m painting a grim picture of a life that’s actually very blessed. Others have experienced far worse with fewer complaints. My perceived suffering pales beside that of a person who’s lost a loved one, or an income needed for survival. Also, as I get used to the shift in my lifestyle, I’m beginning to find my groove again. Last spring, I started the season thinking I was at life’s helm, confident I could steer in any direction and choose my pace. I was thankful, but a little smug as I laid plans for my vision of retirement. One year later, I’m still planning and still thankful–but a bit more humble.   Ed is a semi-retired physical therapist who lives and works in a small community near Atlanta. When he's not spending time with his church, family or friends, you may find him tending his garden and wondering if he will ever fully retire. Check out Ed’s earlier articles.
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Staying Rational

ArticleAdam M. Grossman  |  Apr 18, 2026

IT'S BEEN MORE than six years since Covid first entered our vocabulary. It goes without saying that investors have experienced a lot, and for better or worse, recent market events provide some useful lessons. The first has to do with the nature of the stock market. What drives stock prices? Open a finance textbook, and the answer will be clear: The value of a stock should equal the sum of the company’s future profits. This idea is known as intrinsic value, and it’s the textbook explanation of how stock prices work. But there’s clearly a disconnect, since stock prices bounce around far more than the math suggests they should.  How can we square this circle? Over the long term, the data tell us that intrinsic value is a valid idea. Chart the price of any given stock, then overlay the company’s profits, and there will often be a reasonably close relationship. But only if you’re Rip Van Winkle. Over shorter periods of time, anything can happen. Stocks often move far above or far below their intrinsic values in response to the news of the day.  Especially during times of economic uncertainty, intrinsic value analysis is typically cast aside and replaced by some combination of emotion, conjecture, speculation and storytelling. That’s what we saw in the early months of 2020. Stores were closed, employees had been sent home and the economy went into recession. And since no one had a crystal ball, that’s when storytellers were able to step in with their extreme predictions, causing the stock market to drop more than 30% in the space of six weeks. The lesson for investors: No one can predict when the next crisis will roll around or what form it will take. But there is one very reasonable way to be able to keep it in perspective: by remembering that, at the end of the day, intrinsic value is what matters, and ultimately that’s what drives stock prices. Basic arithmetic illustrates how this can help us manage through the next crisis. Consider that the price-to-earnings ratio of the U.S. stock market has historically averaged around 16. The average company’s total stock market value, in other words, has been equal to about 16 times its annual profits.  Now let’s imagine that the next crisis results in every company in America losing an entire year of earnings. That’s extreme and hasn’t happened since the Depression, but it’s useful as a thought experiment. In that scenario, what would be the impact to those companies’ intrinsic value? In simple terms, it would be just one-sixteenth, or a modest 6%. What if a crisis were so severe that a company lost two years of earnings? Using this simple model, the impact would be about 12%. This is meaningful, I believe, because crises typically result in stock price declines that are far more severe than just 6% or 12%. In 2000 and in 2008, the market dropped more than 50%. While every crisis is different, I think it’s useful to keep these numbers in mind whenever the next geopolitical event causes stocks to drop. When that occurs, storytellers will inevitably take over, and the news will be downbeat. But if stocks drop to an extreme degree, as they have in the past, we can probably view it as an overreaction. That won’t help anyone’s portfolio recover any faster, but it should help us tune out the worst of the forecasters and maintain our equanimity. How else can you maintain an even keel during a market crisis? It’s important to understand the impact of recency bias. This bias is the tendency to extrapolate from current conditions, to assume that the future will look like the present, and to downplay the possibility that things might change. That tendency is what contributed to the cycle of negative news during the depths of 2020, and this is why I think it’s so important for investors to be aware of market history.  Again, extensive analysis isn’t required. We need only look back across some of the crises the country has weathered, from the Civil War to the Depression to World War II. In each case, the economy recovered and went on to become larger and stronger than before. The lesson for investors: In the depths of a crisis, it’s very difficult to know when or how it will end. But a sense of history can help carry us through. Those are ways to manage through a crisis. Covid also provided a lesson on how to prepare—specifically, how to prepare our portfolios—for a future downturn. In 2022, investors were caught flat-footed when popular total-bond market funds delivered surprising losses. These funds are one pillar of the well-known three-fund portfolio and have traditionally been viewed as the default choice for a set-it-and-forget-it bond allocation. But in 2022, when the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates, these funds dropped a surprising 13%. That was during the same year that the U.S. stock market dropped nearly 20%, creating a very difficult situation for those in retirement and needing to withdraw from their portfolios. The lesson for investors: Total-bond market funds may be well diversified, but they carry risk along another very important dimension known as duration. This is a bond metric that measures, in simple terms, how long it will take for bondholders to be repaid, and it’s a key determinant of risk. The longer the duration, the greater the risk of loss when rates rise. While total-bond market funds have holdings across a broad range of durations, they average out to nearly six years. That’s why they lost so much value in 2022. What’s the alternative? Short-term bond funds tend to have a duration in the neighborhood of just two years. As a result, in 2022, short-term government bond funds like Vanguard’s Short-Term Treasury ETF (ticker: VGSH) lost a far more manageable 4% of their value. To be sure, every crisis is different, and it’s easy to rationalize about the past once it’s in the past. But these lessons, I think, can help us better prepare both our emotions and our portfolios for whatever comes next.   Adam M. Grossman is the founder of Mayport, a fixed-fee wealth management firm. Sign up for Adam's Daily Ideas email, follow him on X @AdamMGrossman and check out his earlier articles.
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Navigating a Turbulent Career

ArticleRichard Connor  |  Apr 18, 2026

A RECENT article by Adam Grossman relayed an interesting story of the 2015 merger of Kraft and Heinz.  One of the aspects that made this merger unique was the involvement of Warren Buffet. Adam’s story is a cautionary tale for investors – research shows that, more often than not, the hoped-for corporate synergies and growth are elusive. The story provides more evidence for the benefits of indexing to investors. There is, however, another side to this story that is very important to an individual’s personal financial life. In addition to being investors, most of us are, or were, employees of a corporation.  What if you are an employee of a company that is acquiring another company, being acquired by another company, or part of a merger?  How do you navigate the challenges of this significant career event? In late November 1985, I interviewed with RCA’s Astro Space division in East Windsor, NJ.  Several weeks later I interviewed with GE Aerospace in King of Prussia, PA.  In between those 2 interviews it was announced that GE was acquiring RCA. I received an offer for a position in the thermal engineering group of both companies. The GE offer was for $32,000, $4,000 more than the RCA offer.  The GE plant was about 8 miles from our home; the RCA plant was 62 miles from our home.   I accepted the GE offer.  When I called the RCA manager to tell him my decision, he was professional and understanding.  He remarked that “who knows, we may end up working together and you got a better deal out of it”. Four months later that RCA manager became the senior manager of the merged thermal engineering organization – my new boss’s boss. Seven years later my division was sold to Martin Marietta, whose space operations were based in Denver, CO. Two years later Martin Marietta merged with Lockheed, in Sunnyvale, CA, to form Lockheed Martin.  Later that year it was announced that the company was closing its 2 east coast plants and moving the work to Sunnyvale and Denver.   Over the 31 years starting in 1986, I was part of numerous acquisitions, mergers, two plant shut-downs, and being sold to a private equity company. Somehow, I managed to stay employed, and grow my career. I wasn’t special – hundreds of colleagues trod the same path. When I look back I can identify some of the attributes that helped me navigate a turbulent career. Build your Reputation: Be someone that people want to hire. If you move up, be someone that people want to work for. My first senior manager position came about because the hiring team remembered me from 4 years previous  Maintain Flexibility: Are you willing to travel or relocate? Would you take a lateral position, or even a step down, if it meant keeping a job?  During my career I traveled extensively, commuted 62 miles for four years, and took new positions that challenged me and my family.  Focus on your Skills: What are the skills and behaviors that are valued by your company, and differentiate successful employees? These include technical, leadership, managerial, and interpersonal skills. My first GE manager provided a sound technical base, but also taught me just as much about work ethic, and professionalism. Focus on the Culture:  Combing organizations means combining cultures, just as much as products or processes.  This may require you to be open to a different way of doing things. It requires a willingness to learn and grow.  It will also likely require some diplomacy skills.  Change is hard for employees, and nobody enjoys being told their processes or products are inferior.  When we merged with RCA, we found there was a significant difference in the way that managers and senior technical leaders challenged their employees in public forums, in front of customers.  GE preferred to work out technical differences and approaches in-house, and present a united front to customers. This took some time to resolve into a shared approach. Focus on the People:  When my first GE manager retired, we held a group luncheon. He was universally liked and respected.  Someone described him as the best “BTU chaser” he’d ever seen, which was high praise. He gave a short speech at his retirement, where he discussed the exciting space programs he had supported. He ended that the thing that made his career special wasn’t the projects and technology, it was the people.   I was also fortunate to work on some exciting, ground-breaking projects.  It wasn’t always easy, and the path certainly wasn’t straight.  Looking back, it is the people I think of most, and I miss the most.    Richard Connor is a semi-retired aerospace engineer with a keen interest in finance. He enjoys a wide variety of other interests, including chasing grandkids, space, sports, travel, winemaking and reading. Follow Rick on Twitter @RConnor609 and check out his earlier articles.
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Scent of a Cheapskate: Frugality Gone Wrong

Mark Crothers  |  Apr 17, 2026

"Finally, I've one upped you!!!!!"
- DAN SMITH
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Financial Tension

William Housley  |  Apr 17, 2026

"It is likely none of us on Humble Dollar have enormous wealth 🤔 Some, likely many, like you do what we can."
- William Housley
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Manifesto

Apr 19, 2026

NO. 59: MOST FOLKS should avoid alternative investments. Yes, they promise returns uncorrelated with the stock market and gains when shares are tumbling. But isn’t that why we own bonds?

humans

Apr 19, 2026

NO. 64: WE MAY feel stuck—but often others can point the way forward. We’ve all struggled with seemingly intractable problems, mulling them over and over, trying to figure out the answer. But sometimes, the solution isn’t to think harder. Instead, it’s to ask others, who will have a different perspective—and may suggest solutions that hadn’t occurred to us.

Truths

Apr 19, 2026

NO. 21: WE’RE HARDWIRED to search for patterns. We might convince ourselves that markets are sure to rise or fall, that individual stocks will soar or sink, or that certain mutual fund managers are destined to be market beaters. This can lead us to make large, costly investment bets—and yet often we’re seeing things that simply aren’t there.

act

Apr 18, 2026

CHECK YOUR FUND expenses. If you own index funds, aim for weighted average annual expenses below 0.15%. If you own active funds, you’ll pay more—but allocate enough to index funds to push your portfolio average below 0.4%. By holding down costs, you’ll keep more of what you make, plus low-cost funds typically beat high-cost competitors.

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Manifesto

Apr 19, 2026

NO. 59: MOST FOLKS should avoid alternative investments. Yes, they promise returns uncorrelated with the stock market and gains when shares are tumbling. But isn’t that why we own bonds?

Spotlight: Estate Plan

Exit Strategy

David Gartland   |  Jul 9, 2024

IF YOU’RE LIKE ME, you aren’t eager to spend down your investments. What fun is that? Aren’t you curious to see how big your portfolio could grow? Of course, you are.
After my wife and I are gone, my son will have dibs on the money we’ve amassed. We’ve set up a special needs trust to provide him with income when we’re no longer around. My son has no siblings, so we needed the trust to make sure he’s taken care of.

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Share the Power

Dennis Friedman   |  Jan 2, 2025

LIKE OTHER FOLLOWERS of HumbleDollar, I look forward to Jonathan’s Saturday articles. I have to admit that my interest has been heightened by his cancer diagnosis. Not many folks would have the courage to write about what’s going through their mind when they’re fighting for their life. We don’t often get this kind of insight into someone’s life.
Jonathan has probably received a lot of advice about treatment plans and the doctors he should see.

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Final Arrangements: A Learning Curve

DrLefty   |  Aug 18, 2024

As I’ve written here before, my mother-in-law has been dealing with Alzheimer’s, and this last year has been a constant learning curve of navigating long-term care policies, trying out in-home caregivers (pretty major fail), and finally a memory care residential facility.
Well, this past week was a new challenge. My MIL passed away suddenly on Tuesday night. We got a call from the memory care facility that she’d fainted several times,  so they’d called an ambulance.

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Great Ideas from Ed Slott for Estate Planning Using Roth Savings

David Lancaster   |  Mar 20, 2025

https://www.morningstar.com/retirement/ed-slott-how-roth-iras-can-help-with-estate-planning?utm_source=eloqua&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=AdvisorDigest&utm_content=None_62149&utm_id=32158

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Tempus Fugit, Vol II

Rick Connor   |  May 15, 2025

Last month, I wrote about a spate of funerals my wife and I attended.  Since then, I recently found out that a close friend and colleague in his early 60s was diagnosed with a “butterfly glioblastoma,” a rare and aggressive form of brain tumor. It’s a recent diagnosis, and his treatment plan is being finalized. A few friends and I drove an hour and a half to take him out to lunch earlier in the week,

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Getting Along

Tom Sedoric   |  Jun 7, 2024

ONE OUT OF SIX of our nation’s children lives in a blended family, with 40% of today’s marriages defined as blended, meaning that one or both spouses had been previously married. I live in one of those blended households.
Three decades ago, the data on children from “broken families” weren’t encouraging. I can happily debunk that early data, which didn’t give our family much hope. My two exceptional stepchildren, and our biological daughter, are all productive and contributing adults.

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Spotlight: Connor

Much Appreciated

Richard Connor   |  Aug 31, 2020

WHAT’S YOUR CAPITAL gains tax rate? It’s a crucial number to know—and it could open the door to some big tax savings. Most investors are aware that there’s a significant difference between the tax rate on short-term capital gains—investments held for a year or less—and that on long-term gains, those held more than a year. Realized short-term gains are dunned as ordinary income, just like your salary or any interest income you earn, while long-term appreciation gets taxed at a lower rate. What’s less understood is how the relationship between capital gains and ordinary income—and the order in which they're taxed—can impact your marginal tax rate. Understanding those rules can open up a host of tax planning opportunities. Some background: Capital gains are part of your adjusted gross income, or AGI. Your AGI drives the tax rate you pay not only on ordinary income, but also on long-term gains. That capital gains rate will be lower than the rate on earned income. In fact, if your AGI is low enough to put you in the bottom two income tax brackets, your long-term capital gains tax rate will be zero, unless you're right at the top of the 12% bracket. From there, the capital gains rate jumps to 15% and then, at high levels of income, to 20%. On top of that, those with capital gains may face a 3.8% “net investment income tax,” also known as the Medicare surcharge or surtax, which kicks in at $200,000 for single individuals and $250,000 for those married filing jointly. The accompanying table shows 2020's seven ordinary income brackets, three long-term capital gains brackets and two Medicare surcharge brackets. The key thing to understand: Long-term capital gains are taxed as additional income, on top of your ordinary income, which means capital gains won’t push your…
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Inflation and Me

Richard Connor   |  Jul 26, 2022

INFLATION IS HURTING all of us—but in different ways. Even as the Federal Reserve tries to tame the inflation beast, it’s also prudent to look at our own spending and see if there are ways we can help ourselves. What are some of the things my wife and I are doing? We had a recent discussion about the issue and came up with a list of modest changes we plan to make: We’ll drive less. Most anything in our town is a modest walk or easy bicycle ride away. Parking in the summer can be a challenge in our seaside town, so biking or walking also means less aggravation. We’ll try to cook more. We like going to restaurants, but prices have gone way up. In our area, there are a number of BYOB restaurants. This is a great way to save money. Another idea: Go out to breakfast or lunch. Those meals are usually less expensive. We can share dishes. Many restaurants serve large portions, more than we want or need to eat. We frequently bring home leftovers. Instead, we’re planning to share an appetizer or salad and then split an entrée. We’ll look for sales and bargains, especially in the grocery store. In addition, we plan to be more conscientious about not wasting food. We’re lucky to have a number of excellent farmer’s markets near us. Our town’s Wednesday market has great local produce, and it’s easy to get there by bike. We’ll be more aware of our spending. While I don’t consider us spendthrifts, we also don’t agonize over spending. But perhaps we should: We’re recent retirees, the financial markets have suffered steep losses and we’ve spent a significant sum on home improvements in the past 18 months. The good news: We’re close to the end of…
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Connor’s Favorites

Richard Connor   |  Feb 2, 2023

HERE ARE MY TEN favorite articles that I’ve written over the three-plus years I’ve been a part of the HumbleDollar community. Although I write my share of technical and analytical articles, the ones I like the most have a human element. As my wife will attest, I’m a bit of a softy, and care deeply about my family and friends. I like happy endings and want to see people succeed, especially the generations to come. Indeed, helping people with the knowledge and experience I’ve gained is a primary motivation in writing for the site. Quiet Heroism (Aug. 30, 2019). My second article for HumbleDollar was inspired by finding my father-in-law’s 1943 tax return. The 1040 tax return form tells an amazing story of the heroism on the home front during the Second World War. Think Bigger (Aug. 12, 2019). My first HumbleDollar article was my attempt to explain my views on personal financial planning. Too many of us spend too much effort on our investments, and not enough on the other important aspects, such as tax and estate planning. Return on Investment (Dec. 31, 2019). This article discusses our extended family’s annual Thanksgiving week reunion on the Outer Banks of North Carolina. Although it was a financial challenge some years, the return on our collective investment has far exceeded our expectations. Resolved: Get Healthy (Jan. 7, 2022). HumbleDollar’s editor asked writers to pen an article on their New Year’s resolutions. This article spurred my wife and me to make 2022 our year to get healthy. This Too Shall Pass (March 31, 2020). At the beginning of the pandemic, when things were looking bleak, I was reminded of one of my father’s favorite sayings. A little research put the saying in a broader context and helped me take a stoic view…
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Walking Man

Richard Connor   |  Dec 13, 2022

I RECENTLY WROTE about things we can do to protect our finances in the event we suffer cognitive decline. This may not be anybody’s favorite subject, but it’s an important one.  Many of us have first-hand experience with the ravages of dementia. It can upend a carefully crafted retirement plan and necessitate costly medical care. Like many of my friends and colleagues, I’d like to know if there are things I can do to prevent or forestall the onset of mental decline. Harvard Medical School published an article listing six factors that may help prevent cognitive decline: Engage in regular exercise. Eat a Mediterranean diet emphasizing fruits, vegetables, whole grains and lean protein. Limit alcohol consumption to about one drink per day. Get quality sleep. Seven to eight hours per night is optimal. Get mental stimulation. Reading, writing, puzzles, card or board games, group discussions and playing music were mentioned. Find some form of regular social engagement. A friend’s mother suffered from severe Alzheimer’s disease. He was concerned that this might increase his risk, and he expressed this concern to his doctor at an annual checkup. The doctor had a similar family history and shared my friend’s concern. He told him that he’d been studying dementia for a number of years and that, among the studies he’d reviewed, the one common element in reducing the risk of dementia was walking. A recent article in the Journal of the American Medical Association’s neurology publication added some credence to my friend’s anecdote. The article describes a study that monitored more than 78,000 adults and looked at the relationship between the number of steps walked each day and the chances of developing dementia. The article referenced previous findings that indicated that walking reduces the risk of many of the causes of illness and…
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Eyeing That Check

Richard Connor   |  Aug 7, 2021

THE SOCIAL SECURITY Administration began rolling out a new, smaller annual statement on May 1. As reported in Think Advisor and other publications, a small percentage of online “my Social Security” account users, who aren’t currently receiving benefits, will get the new printed statement. The new statement is two pages instead of four. One significant improvement is a graphic that shows what your estimated monthly benefit could be if you started taking benefits in any of the nine years between ages 62 and 70. The personalized amounts are displayed in a series of horizontal bars. Previously, the annual statement provided estimates for only three ages: 62, 67 and 70. Even if you don’t receive the new statement, you can get the new estimates by creating a “my Social Security” account through the Social Security’s website. Once you’re signed in, you’ll see a tool labeled “plan for retirement.” The display defaults to show your current benefit estimate, your estimated benefit at full retirement age and your estimated benefit at age 70. The tool has a slide bar that allows you to pick a new retirement age, down to the month, and get a benefit estimate for that age. As you try different ages, the site remembers each estimate you generated. When you’re done evaluating specific ages, click the “estimates table” link and the site will create a table of your selected estimates suitable for printing or saving. If you’re married, another helpful feature provided by the website is an estimate of your Social Security spousal benefit. Select “include a spouse” on the top right of the graphic and input your spouse’s estimated benefit amount at full retirement age. The graphic then adds a line estimating your spousal benefit based on your spouse’s personal earnings record.
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Read the Fine Print

Richard Connor   |  Jan 14, 2020

IT’S THAT TIME of the year—when we should all reevaluate how much we’re saving in our employer's 401(k). The 2020 contribution limit is $19,500, up $500 from 2019’s level. For those age 50 and older, the catchup contribution was also raised by $500, to $6,500, so these folks can invest as much as $26,000 in 2020. In addition, it’s a good time to check we’re getting the most out of our 401(k). What are the rules on the employer match? Are we leaving any of that “free money” on the table? How about the plan’s investment options? Are we happy with our choices? Does the recent runup in stocks mean we need to rebalance our mix of stocks, bonds and cash investments? If your spouse also has a 401(k), you might look at both plans in concert—as well as any other investments—and make decisions to get the best out of each plan. For instance, there were many years when my plan’s investment options were superior to those in my wife’s plan, so we skewed her contributions toward her plan’s better options and I then adjusted my holdings to round out our family’s portfolio. Some of our retirement and taxable accounts might appear stock- or bond-heavy, but at the aggregate level we’re comfortable with our allocation. In doing your New Year’s 401(k) evaluation, be sure you understand any nuances that could cost you money. I ran into this when my employer sold my division to a private equity firm. Over the next several years, our benefits changed somewhat, but not too dramatically. There was, however, a subtle change to our 401(k) plan that took a few years to come to light and caused a lot of heartache for the employees that were affected. The situation had to do with “super savers”—employees…
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