FREE NEWSLETTER

When we buy a fund, we can’t be sure we have a winner. But if we hold down costs, we will at least keep more of whatever we make.

Latest PostsAll Discussions »

Less Paper, More Fraud

"Of course, we must be the capital of Medicare fraud!"
- Randy Dobkin
Read more »

The ACA Financial Cliff … some helpful visuals (and hope for continued dialog)

"This is hard to believe. “Many couples don’t understand why both of their incomes count toward “household” income.” I wonder what they think. "
- R Quinn
Read more »

Vanguard Funds Fee Cut

"As a Vanguard ETF customer, this is good news. They have great products in this space and I will continue to use them."
- Harold Tynes
Read more »

Maximizing Lifetime Retirement Spending

"Mark: I agree with your comments about spending strategies and like you, have my own take on that issue, but probably not for as long as your 30-40 year horizon. As other writers note from time to time, I have a firm understanding of what we bring in, what we save, what we spend, and what "large" expenses may be coming in future years. So long as revenues exceed expenses, we have pretty much free rein on spending what we've worked to accumulate. My wife will begin receiving social security in February which will increase our savings or allow for additional spending. It is certainly nice to be in this situation rather than having to watch each penny spent!"
- Dave Melick
Read more »

Banking problem

"I have always paid the IRS through their EFTPS site and I have never had a problem."
- Harry Crawford
Read more »

Investments Tax

MANY PEOPLE don't know, but there is a net investment income tax of 3.8% that applies to some of your income. Today, I want to discuss what it is, how we can reduce its impact, and how we can save money. Let’s dive right in: Net Investment Income Tax (NIIT) The net investment income tax is imposed on investment income if the modified adjusted gross income (adjusted gross income + foreign income exclusion) is more than $200,000 for single filers or $250,000 for those married filing jointly. This tax is applied to the lower of:
  • Net investment income
  • Modified adjusted gross income above the threshold
Example Say you have a modified adjusted gross income of $220,000. Your net investment income is $40,000. You are single. How much tax will you pay? $220,000 - $200,000 = $20,000 (above the threshold) The amount subject to the tax is the lesser of:
  • $20,000 (income above the threshold), or
  • $40,000 of net investment income
$20,000 * 0.038 = $760 of tax Common examples of investment income
  • Gains from the sale of stocks, bonds, and mutual funds
  • Capital gain distributions from mutual funds
  • Gain from the sale of investment real estate (Primary residence is excluded, up to $250k / $500k of gain)
  • Dividends (qualified and ordinary)
  • Interest
Note that the NIIT does not apply to:
  • W-2 wages
  • Self-employment income
  • Social Security
  • Distributions from retirement accounts (401(k), IRA, Roth)
  • Income from an active trade or business
Now let’s talk about how we can save some money on taxes: 1. Interest Municipal bond interest (received from a city or state) is tax-exempt. So, if you have a lot of interest income, consider shifting that portion of your portfolio to a municipal bond ETF and avoid the NIIT. However, you still need to do the math to make sure it's worth it. Make sure the yield * (1 - marginal tax rate) is lower than the municipal bond yield. Remember. the goal is not to minimize taxes. The goal is to maximize your after-tax return. 2. Dividends Dividends count toward the 3.8% NIIT. This applies to both qualified and ordinary dividends. If you want to minimize the impact of NIIT, you can rebalance the portfolio to emphasize growth stocks over dividend-paying stocks. That said, make sure your overall asset allocation and risk tolerance are not compromised just to save on taxes. Where possible, holding higher-dividend investments inside tax-advantaged accounts can also reduce exposure. 3. Capital gains timing & tax-loss harvesting Capital gains increase net investment income, which can trigger or increase NIIT. Some planning ideas:
  • Realize gains in lower-income years, if possible
  • Offset gains with harvested losses
  • Avoid unnecessary fund turnover in taxable accounts
  • Lower net investment income means lower exposure to the 3.8% tax
  • Lower your adjusted gross income
4. Lower your adjusted gross income If you stay below the income threshold, you don’t pay the net investment income tax at all. Make sure you’re taking advantage of accounts that lower your income, such as:
  • 401(k), 403(b), 457(b)
  • SEP IRA
  • Traditional IRA (if meet income threshold and/or no workplace retirement plan)
  • HSA
This helps reduce your regular income tax and the potential NIIT. 5. Installment sales If you can, spreading the gains from the sale of an investment property over multiple years may reduce the impact on your taxable income and limit how much of the gain is subject to the NIIT in any one year. 6. 1031 exchange If you own investment real estate, a 1031 like-kind exchange can defer capital gains and reduce the immediate impact of the NIIT. This doesn’t eliminate the tax forever, but it can significantly improve cash flow and tax efficiency. Final thoughts The net investment income tax often gets overlooked, but for higher earners, it can add thousands of dollars to the tax bill without you even knowing. A few small planning decisions, like asset location, income timing, and account contributions, can make a difference over time. I hope you enjoyed this one. Looking forward to your comments!   Bogdan Sheremeta is a licensed CPA based in Illinois with experience at Deloitte and a Fortune 200 multinational.
Read more »

No Free Ride

WE ARE A NATION obsessed with youth sports. Time magazine says it's a $15 billion-a-year industry. As many as 60 million kids participate. Sports are good for kids for all kinds of reasons: promoting exercise and a healthy lifestyle, enhancing team work and relationships, providing structure, instilling confidence to overcome challenges and delivering the joy of playing. During our children’s sports journeys, we parents are often led to believe that our little sports stars are on the path to the holy grail—a full athletic college scholarship. The sports-industry complex of coaches, trainers, camp and tournament directors, and recruiting advisors often promote this fantasy. And we parents bite hard. After all, who doesn’t want their kid to receive a $200,000 free ride? But will they? Make no mistake: Youth sports aren’t free. College athletes typically require five to 10 years of dedicated travel sport participation, with the associated fees, equipment, travel and hotel costs, coaching fees, supplemental training, camps, showcase tournaments and tryouts, and perhaps a video or recruiting advisor. The commonly used and derided term “pay to play” highlights the financial underpinnings of youth sports. It's common for families to spend $2,000 to 5,000 a year for travel team participants, and $20,000 a year or more isn’t unheard of. I am intimately familiar with youth soccer and estimate the typical college soccer player incurred total costs of around $50,000 to get there. Even a barest-of-bones elite youth soccer journey would likely cost $25,000. On a strictly financial basis, 529 savings plans and Coverdell education savings accounts are far more reliable sources of college funding. In addition to high costs, youth players must grapple with all the other aspects of becoming an elite athlete—maintaining interest and discipline, remaining injury-free, continuous training and constant competition at the highest levels. Elite athletes then face the final challenge in capturing an athletic scholarship: selection by a college coach. Only 3% of high schoolers get to play NCAA Division 1 and 2 college sports, according to ScholarshipStats.com—and not all will receive scholarships, let alone a full ride. They may also end up at colleges that aren’t the best fit for them. The bottom line: The odds of landing on a D1 or D2 team roster are about the same as landing on a single roulette number. D3 colleges, which comprise the largest NCAA division, do not provide athletic scholarships. NAIA and junior colleges do offer athletic scholarships and may provide a good alternative, assuming the academic and campus programs fit the athlete. Selection numbers are particularly daunting in widely played sports like basketball and soccer, where less than 1% of U.S. high school boys are chosen for D1 teams. Some D1 obsessed parents even steer their kids to sports with fewer youth players, and larger college rosters, such as ice hockey, lacrosse or men’s baseball. With these sports, selection chances are roughly triple that of basketball and soccer, but still a miserly 2% to 6%. Another tactic, utilized mostly to gain acceptance—rather than money—at stretch academic colleges, is to have kids excel in niche sports. Talent at equestrian, crew, fencing, rifle and javelin throwing may increase the odds of being noticed. One father helped his two kids get into Ivy League colleges by undertaking a multi-year program to assist them in becoming among the best high school javelin throwers. Even for those few players selected to play college sports, most don’t receive a full ride. Only football, men’s and women’s basketball, and a few additional women’s sports—volleyball, tennis, gymnastics—are NCAA D1 full-ride sports. In men’s soccer, for example, D1 and D2 colleges can grant 9.9 and nine scholarships, respectively, for a roster of around 29 players—in other words, just a one-third scholarship per player. Some colleges, including members of the Ivy League, don’t offer athletic scholarships. Others don’t fully fund all athletic scholarships, such as some Patriot League colleges. Women’s scholarship opportunities in some sports are higher than men’s. That’s largely the result of Title IX equivalency requirements, which means colleges essentially need to offset the 65 to 85 football scholarships granted to men. Women’s D1 soccer can give 14 scholarships, versus 9.9 for men, plus women’s soccer has 129 more D1 teams than men’s soccer. Still, like high school boys, girls face the same dismal overall 3% selection rate to NCAA D1 and D2 sports. Children should participate in youth sports for the many positive benefits. Meanwhile, parents should relax and enjoy their kid’s sports journey. Too many families hang onto the false hope that youth sports will lead directly to a college scholarship. But unfortunately, this ride isn’t free—and there’s likely no scholarship at the end of the journey. John Yeigh is the author of a book outlining the highs, lows and challenges of youth sports, with publication slated for 2020. His two children overcame their Dad’s genetic deficits and became college athletes. John’s previous articles include Other People's StuffAll Stocks and Off the Payroll. [xyz-ihs snippet="Donate"]
Read more »

Medicare Advantage- heads up‼️

"Medicare does virtually no care review, only retrospective claim review and then not much and fraud even error payments can take years to find. People scream about pre-certification, even referral requirements in the non Medicare world, can you imagine applying that to Medicare population? My wife used to go to a ENT to have ear wax removed. Medicare paid. Now she goes to her primary and his PA does it."
- R Quinn
Read more »

Tax Filing (A Teeny Tiny Rant)

"No one likes the additional tax complexity of pass through tax entities but that complexity has historically been out weighted for small business by the available choice to avoid double taxation due to a tax at first the entity level and then a second tax at the individual owners level. To avoid double taxation entities and their owners have chosen to not be taxed as a C-corporation when possible. Also, early in my working career the availability of some company retirement plans were limited for those in a non-corporate professional group and thus pass through S-corporations came into existence (1958). The days of simple general partnership entities were over when many unlimited liabilities could be mitigated via choice of entity and the lower taxes and better owner benefits sealed the deal on choice of entity. Unfortunately, various groups over the years have been able to lobby for special carve outs or tax benefits for the group being lobbied for and, in my opinion, we now have a tax system that is at a point where the current US tax system results in neither fair taxation nor simple compliance."
- William Perry
Read more »

Misleading Indicator

LISTEN TO THE financial news, and you’ll often hear reference to “the VIX.” But what exactly is the VIX, and how important is it? The VIX index is intended to be a measure of investor sentiment. For that reason, it’s often referred to as the market’s “fear gauge.” How can investor sentiment be measured? While the math is complex, it’s based on a straightforward principle: When investors get nervous, they look for ways to protect their portfolios and are sometimes even willing to pay for that protection. This was the insight that led to the initial development of the VIX back in 1989. Two finance professors, Menachem Brenner and Dan Galai, observed that stock options—and specifically, the prices of those options—provided a sort of X-Ray into investors’ feelings. That’s because certain options, known as “put” options, are designed to protect portfolios from losses. They’re like insurance. So when demand for put options increases, and as a result, pushes up the prices of those options, that’s an indication that investors are feeling more nervous. On the other hand, during periods when investors are feeling optimistic, put options will fall in price. Instead, “call” options, which allow investors to magnify their gains in rising markets, will go up in price. The relative prices of these two types of options can tell us a lot about investors’ mindset, and that’s the basis of the VIX. In very simple terms, when put option prices are rising, the VIX rises. And when put option prices are falling, the VIX falls. A higher VIX reading thus means investors are becoming more fearful. Because of its function as a sentiment gauge, market commentators like to talk about the VIX, especially when it’s rising. But I’m not sure we should put too much stock in it. That’s for two reasons. First, and most importantly, the VIX is limited because it’s only able to measure current investor sentiment. It doesn’t know anything about what will happen in the future. Consider how the VIX behaved during some significant market events over the past 20 years.  In August 2008, the VIX was at a relatively low level, right around 20. It seemed to be indicating calm seas. But just a month later, Lehman Brothers went into bankruptcy, and the stock market began to fall. The VIX did eventually spike up in response to this crisis, ultimately rising all the way to 80—a very high reading—but by that point, it was too late. It was effectively reporting yesterday’s news. At other points, the VIX has been misleadingly high. In the spring of 2020, when the market dropped more than 30%, fear levels were running high, and the VIX spiked up to 82. But with the benefit of hindsight, we can see that the VIX wasn’t communicating anything useful. That’s because the spring of 2020 would have been an ideal time to buy. Between March 16, when the VIX hit its peak, and the end of that year, the S&P 500 rose 57%. The VIX provided no hint that this rally was coming. Nearly the same sequence of events occurred in 2025. In April, when investor worries were running high over the White House’s new tariff policies, the VIX spiked up, topping 50 on April 8. But that also would have been an ideal time to buy. A short time later, the White House changed course on tariffs, and the market rebounded, gaining 37% through the end of the year. Why is the VIX such a poor predictor? In his book Finance for Normal People, Meir Statman describes how investors are susceptible to recency bias. He cites a Gallup survey that asked investors, “Do you think that now is a good time to invest in financial markets?” Almost invariably, investors answered “yes” when markets had been rising. In February 2000, for example, 78% of those surveyed responded positively—just a month before the market fell into a multi-year bear market. The problem is that our minds’ are prone to extrapolating from current conditions. And since the VIX simply mimics investors’ thinking, it too just extrapolates. The VIX has no idea when the market is about to reverse course, as it did in 2000, 2008 or 2025. Despite this flaw, however, you might wonder if the VIX would nonetheless be useful as a portfolio hedge. In other words, even if the effect is delayed, the VIX seems like it might be helpful if it goes up when the market goes down, and vice versa.  In The Four Pillars of Investing, William Bernstein looks at this question. He examines a popular ETF (ticker: VXX) that tracks the VIX index. On the surface, this looks like an effective way to protect a portfolio. In the first three months of 2020, for example, when Covid arrived, and the stock market began to drop, this ETF rose more than 200%. But that was one narrow time period. Other periods were punishing for VXX. Bernstein points to 2010-2011, when the S&P 500 rose about 8.5% per year, on average. What did VXX do? You might expect that it would have fallen proportionately. But it cratered, losing 74% of its value. Bernstein asks wryly, “You didn’t expect that someone would sell you bear market insurance for free, did you?” That, unfortunately, is the issue. Because of the way it’s constructed, the VIX doesn’t work as a perfect offset to the stock market. That’s why, in my view, investors are best served by a much simpler portfolio structure, consisting of stocks and primarily short-term Treasury bonds. While this combination isn’t flawless, it’s delivered far less volatile results over time than any strategy built around the VIX. Like many things in finance, the VIX is interesting, but ultimately not very useful.   Adam M. Grossman is the founder of Mayport, a fixed-fee wealth management firm. Sign up for Adam's Daily Ideas email, follow him on X @AdamMGrossman and check out his earlier articles.
Read more »

Less Paper, More Fraud

"Of course, we must be the capital of Medicare fraud!"
- Randy Dobkin
Read more »

The ACA Financial Cliff … some helpful visuals (and hope for continued dialog)

"This is hard to believe. “Many couples don’t understand why both of their incomes count toward “household” income.” I wonder what they think. "
- R Quinn
Read more »

Vanguard Funds Fee Cut

"As a Vanguard ETF customer, this is good news. They have great products in this space and I will continue to use them."
- Harold Tynes
Read more »

Maximizing Lifetime Retirement Spending

"Mark: I agree with your comments about spending strategies and like you, have my own take on that issue, but probably not for as long as your 30-40 year horizon. As other writers note from time to time, I have a firm understanding of what we bring in, what we save, what we spend, and what "large" expenses may be coming in future years. So long as revenues exceed expenses, we have pretty much free rein on spending what we've worked to accumulate. My wife will begin receiving social security in February which will increase our savings or allow for additional spending. It is certainly nice to be in this situation rather than having to watch each penny spent!"
- Dave Melick
Read more »

Banking problem

"I have always paid the IRS through their EFTPS site and I have never had a problem."
- Harry Crawford
Read more »

Investments Tax

MANY PEOPLE don't know, but there is a net investment income tax of 3.8% that applies to some of your income. Today, I want to discuss what it is, how we can reduce its impact, and how we can save money. Let’s dive right in: Net Investment Income Tax (NIIT) The net investment income tax is imposed on investment income if the modified adjusted gross income (adjusted gross income + foreign income exclusion) is more than $200,000 for single filers or $250,000 for those married filing jointly. This tax is applied to the lower of:
  • Net investment income
  • Modified adjusted gross income above the threshold
Example Say you have a modified adjusted gross income of $220,000. Your net investment income is $40,000. You are single. How much tax will you pay? $220,000 - $200,000 = $20,000 (above the threshold) The amount subject to the tax is the lesser of:
  • $20,000 (income above the threshold), or
  • $40,000 of net investment income
$20,000 * 0.038 = $760 of tax Common examples of investment income
  • Gains from the sale of stocks, bonds, and mutual funds
  • Capital gain distributions from mutual funds
  • Gain from the sale of investment real estate (Primary residence is excluded, up to $250k / $500k of gain)
  • Dividends (qualified and ordinary)
  • Interest
Note that the NIIT does not apply to:
  • W-2 wages
  • Self-employment income
  • Social Security
  • Distributions from retirement accounts (401(k), IRA, Roth)
  • Income from an active trade or business
Now let’s talk about how we can save some money on taxes: 1. Interest Municipal bond interest (received from a city or state) is tax-exempt. So, if you have a lot of interest income, consider shifting that portion of your portfolio to a municipal bond ETF and avoid the NIIT. However, you still need to do the math to make sure it's worth it. Make sure the yield * (1 - marginal tax rate) is lower than the municipal bond yield. Remember. the goal is not to minimize taxes. The goal is to maximize your after-tax return. 2. Dividends Dividends count toward the 3.8% NIIT. This applies to both qualified and ordinary dividends. If you want to minimize the impact of NIIT, you can rebalance the portfolio to emphasize growth stocks over dividend-paying stocks. That said, make sure your overall asset allocation and risk tolerance are not compromised just to save on taxes. Where possible, holding higher-dividend investments inside tax-advantaged accounts can also reduce exposure. 3. Capital gains timing & tax-loss harvesting Capital gains increase net investment income, which can trigger or increase NIIT. Some planning ideas:
  • Realize gains in lower-income years, if possible
  • Offset gains with harvested losses
  • Avoid unnecessary fund turnover in taxable accounts
  • Lower net investment income means lower exposure to the 3.8% tax
  • Lower your adjusted gross income
4. Lower your adjusted gross income If you stay below the income threshold, you don’t pay the net investment income tax at all. Make sure you’re taking advantage of accounts that lower your income, such as:
  • 401(k), 403(b), 457(b)
  • SEP IRA
  • Traditional IRA (if meet income threshold and/or no workplace retirement plan)
  • HSA
This helps reduce your regular income tax and the potential NIIT. 5. Installment sales If you can, spreading the gains from the sale of an investment property over multiple years may reduce the impact on your taxable income and limit how much of the gain is subject to the NIIT in any one year. 6. 1031 exchange If you own investment real estate, a 1031 like-kind exchange can defer capital gains and reduce the immediate impact of the NIIT. This doesn’t eliminate the tax forever, but it can significantly improve cash flow and tax efficiency. Final thoughts The net investment income tax often gets overlooked, but for higher earners, it can add thousands of dollars to the tax bill without you even knowing. A few small planning decisions, like asset location, income timing, and account contributions, can make a difference over time. I hope you enjoyed this one. Looking forward to your comments!   Bogdan Sheremeta is a licensed CPA based in Illinois with experience at Deloitte and a Fortune 200 multinational.
Read more »

No Free Ride

WE ARE A NATION obsessed with youth sports. Time magazine says it's a $15 billion-a-year industry. As many as 60 million kids participate. Sports are good for kids for all kinds of reasons: promoting exercise and a healthy lifestyle, enhancing team work and relationships, providing structure, instilling confidence to overcome challenges and delivering the joy of playing. During our children’s sports journeys, we parents are often led to believe that our little sports stars are on the path to the holy grail—a full athletic college scholarship. The sports-industry complex of coaches, trainers, camp and tournament directors, and recruiting advisors often promote this fantasy. And we parents bite hard. After all, who doesn’t want their kid to receive a $200,000 free ride? But will they? Make no mistake: Youth sports aren’t free. College athletes typically require five to 10 years of dedicated travel sport participation, with the associated fees, equipment, travel and hotel costs, coaching fees, supplemental training, camps, showcase tournaments and tryouts, and perhaps a video or recruiting advisor. The commonly used and derided term “pay to play” highlights the financial underpinnings of youth sports. It's common for families to spend $2,000 to 5,000 a year for travel team participants, and $20,000 a year or more isn’t unheard of. I am intimately familiar with youth soccer and estimate the typical college soccer player incurred total costs of around $50,000 to get there. Even a barest-of-bones elite youth soccer journey would likely cost $25,000. On a strictly financial basis, 529 savings plans and Coverdell education savings accounts are far more reliable sources of college funding. In addition to high costs, youth players must grapple with all the other aspects of becoming an elite athlete—maintaining interest and discipline, remaining injury-free, continuous training and constant competition at the highest levels. Elite athletes then face the final challenge in capturing an athletic scholarship: selection by a college coach. Only 3% of high schoolers get to play NCAA Division 1 and 2 college sports, according to ScholarshipStats.com—and not all will receive scholarships, let alone a full ride. They may also end up at colleges that aren’t the best fit for them. The bottom line: The odds of landing on a D1 or D2 team roster are about the same as landing on a single roulette number. D3 colleges, which comprise the largest NCAA division, do not provide athletic scholarships. NAIA and junior colleges do offer athletic scholarships and may provide a good alternative, assuming the academic and campus programs fit the athlete. Selection numbers are particularly daunting in widely played sports like basketball and soccer, where less than 1% of U.S. high school boys are chosen for D1 teams. Some D1 obsessed parents even steer their kids to sports with fewer youth players, and larger college rosters, such as ice hockey, lacrosse or men’s baseball. With these sports, selection chances are roughly triple that of basketball and soccer, but still a miserly 2% to 6%. Another tactic, utilized mostly to gain acceptance—rather than money—at stretch academic colleges, is to have kids excel in niche sports. Talent at equestrian, crew, fencing, rifle and javelin throwing may increase the odds of being noticed. One father helped his two kids get into Ivy League colleges by undertaking a multi-year program to assist them in becoming among the best high school javelin throwers. Even for those few players selected to play college sports, most don’t receive a full ride. Only football, men’s and women’s basketball, and a few additional women’s sports—volleyball, tennis, gymnastics—are NCAA D1 full-ride sports. In men’s soccer, for example, D1 and D2 colleges can grant 9.9 and nine scholarships, respectively, for a roster of around 29 players—in other words, just a one-third scholarship per player. Some colleges, including members of the Ivy League, don’t offer athletic scholarships. Others don’t fully fund all athletic scholarships, such as some Patriot League colleges. Women’s scholarship opportunities in some sports are higher than men’s. That’s largely the result of Title IX equivalency requirements, which means colleges essentially need to offset the 65 to 85 football scholarships granted to men. Women’s D1 soccer can give 14 scholarships, versus 9.9 for men, plus women’s soccer has 129 more D1 teams than men’s soccer. Still, like high school boys, girls face the same dismal overall 3% selection rate to NCAA D1 and D2 sports. Children should participate in youth sports for the many positive benefits. Meanwhile, parents should relax and enjoy their kid’s sports journey. Too many families hang onto the false hope that youth sports will lead directly to a college scholarship. But unfortunately, this ride isn’t free—and there’s likely no scholarship at the end of the journey. John Yeigh is the author of a book outlining the highs, lows and challenges of youth sports, with publication slated for 2020. His two children overcame their Dad’s genetic deficits and became college athletes. John’s previous articles include Other People's StuffAll Stocks and Off the Payroll. [xyz-ihs snippet="Donate"]
Read more »

Misleading Indicator

LISTEN TO THE financial news, and you’ll often hear reference to “the VIX.” But what exactly is the VIX, and how important is it? The VIX index is intended to be a measure of investor sentiment. For that reason, it’s often referred to as the market’s “fear gauge.” How can investor sentiment be measured? While the math is complex, it’s based on a straightforward principle: When investors get nervous, they look for ways to protect their portfolios and are sometimes even willing to pay for that protection. This was the insight that led to the initial development of the VIX back in 1989. Two finance professors, Menachem Brenner and Dan Galai, observed that stock options—and specifically, the prices of those options—provided a sort of X-Ray into investors’ feelings. That’s because certain options, known as “put” options, are designed to protect portfolios from losses. They’re like insurance. So when demand for put options increases, and as a result, pushes up the prices of those options, that’s an indication that investors are feeling more nervous. On the other hand, during periods when investors are feeling optimistic, put options will fall in price. Instead, “call” options, which allow investors to magnify their gains in rising markets, will go up in price. The relative prices of these two types of options can tell us a lot about investors’ mindset, and that’s the basis of the VIX. In very simple terms, when put option prices are rising, the VIX rises. And when put option prices are falling, the VIX falls. A higher VIX reading thus means investors are becoming more fearful. Because of its function as a sentiment gauge, market commentators like to talk about the VIX, especially when it’s rising. But I’m not sure we should put too much stock in it. That’s for two reasons. First, and most importantly, the VIX is limited because it’s only able to measure current investor sentiment. It doesn’t know anything about what will happen in the future. Consider how the VIX behaved during some significant market events over the past 20 years.  In August 2008, the VIX was at a relatively low level, right around 20. It seemed to be indicating calm seas. But just a month later, Lehman Brothers went into bankruptcy, and the stock market began to fall. The VIX did eventually spike up in response to this crisis, ultimately rising all the way to 80—a very high reading—but by that point, it was too late. It was effectively reporting yesterday’s news. At other points, the VIX has been misleadingly high. In the spring of 2020, when the market dropped more than 30%, fear levels were running high, and the VIX spiked up to 82. But with the benefit of hindsight, we can see that the VIX wasn’t communicating anything useful. That’s because the spring of 2020 would have been an ideal time to buy. Between March 16, when the VIX hit its peak, and the end of that year, the S&P 500 rose 57%. The VIX provided no hint that this rally was coming. Nearly the same sequence of events occurred in 2025. In April, when investor worries were running high over the White House’s new tariff policies, the VIX spiked up, topping 50 on April 8. But that also would have been an ideal time to buy. A short time later, the White House changed course on tariffs, and the market rebounded, gaining 37% through the end of the year. Why is the VIX such a poor predictor? In his book Finance for Normal People, Meir Statman describes how investors are susceptible to recency bias. He cites a Gallup survey that asked investors, “Do you think that now is a good time to invest in financial markets?” Almost invariably, investors answered “yes” when markets had been rising. In February 2000, for example, 78% of those surveyed responded positively—just a month before the market fell into a multi-year bear market. The problem is that our minds’ are prone to extrapolating from current conditions. And since the VIX simply mimics investors’ thinking, it too just extrapolates. The VIX has no idea when the market is about to reverse course, as it did in 2000, 2008 or 2025. Despite this flaw, however, you might wonder if the VIX would nonetheless be useful as a portfolio hedge. In other words, even if the effect is delayed, the VIX seems like it might be helpful if it goes up when the market goes down, and vice versa.  In The Four Pillars of Investing, William Bernstein looks at this question. He examines a popular ETF (ticker: VXX) that tracks the VIX index. On the surface, this looks like an effective way to protect a portfolio. In the first three months of 2020, for example, when Covid arrived, and the stock market began to drop, this ETF rose more than 200%. But that was one narrow time period. Other periods were punishing for VXX. Bernstein points to 2010-2011, when the S&P 500 rose about 8.5% per year, on average. What did VXX do? You might expect that it would have fallen proportionately. But it cratered, losing 74% of its value. Bernstein asks wryly, “You didn’t expect that someone would sell you bear market insurance for free, did you?” That, unfortunately, is the issue. Because of the way it’s constructed, the VIX doesn’t work as a perfect offset to the stock market. That’s why, in my view, investors are best served by a much simpler portfolio structure, consisting of stocks and primarily short-term Treasury bonds. While this combination isn’t flawless, it’s delivered far less volatile results over time than any strategy built around the VIX. Like many things in finance, the VIX is interesting, but ultimately not very useful.   Adam M. Grossman is the founder of Mayport, a fixed-fee wealth management firm. Sign up for Adam's Daily Ideas email, follow him on X @AdamMGrossman and check out his earlier articles.
Read more »

Free Newsletter

Get Educated

Manifesto

NO. 4: GOOD SAVINGS habits are the greatest of the financial virtues. If we aren’t good savers, it’s all but impossible to grow wealthy. What if we are? We’ll likely prosper, even if we’re mediocre investors.

think

CORRELATIONS. Investors often buy uncorrelated investments, in the hope that some securities will post gains when others are struggling. The correlation among different stocks is usually high. Instead, to lower the volatility of a portfolio with significant stock exposure, investors typically turn to bonds, cash investments and alternative investments.

Truths

NO. 83: ROTTEN markets early in retirement can wreak havoc. At that point, our portfolio is at its largest—and the combination of lousy returns and our own spending can mean huge dollar losses. Even if we later enjoy handsome investment results, our nest egg may not benefit much, because it’s so shrunken—a danger known as sequence-of-return risk.

act

CALCULATE YOUR required nest egg. Once retired, you’ll likely have Social Security and perhaps a traditional employer pension. How much additional income will you need for a comfortable retirement? This money will need to come from savings. Take your desired portfolio income, multiply by 25—and you’ll have an estimate for how big a nest egg you need.

Basics

Manifesto

NO. 4: GOOD SAVINGS habits are the greatest of the financial virtues. If we aren’t good savers, it’s all but impossible to grow wealthy. What if we are? We’ll likely prosper, even if we’re mediocre investors.

Spotlight: Charity

Give It Away Already

DRIVING CROSSTOWN, my brother and I stopped at an onramp, where a man held a cardboard sign.
“Does anyone give these people money?” my brother asked, then immediately answered his own question by mentioning a friend who hands out bottles of water instead. “Anything helps,” read the man’s sign.
“Sure,” I said. “I’ve seen people pass $5 bills out the window.” A single dollar used to be enough for a panhandler to end his shift and shuffle off to the nearest mini-market.

Read more »

Playing Nice

JUST BEFORE Thanksgiving in 2017, a heartwarming story hit the news. A young woman from Philadelphia named Katelyn McClure had run out of gas on the highway and found herself stranded. By chance, a homeless veteran named Johnny Bobbitt was nearby and, in an act of selflessness, he gave McClure his last $20 to buy gas.
After making it home safely, McClure wanted to express her gratitude, so she set up a GoFundMe page to help Bobbitt get back on his feet.

Read more »

Help Helping Others

AMERICANS ARE a generous people. They gave $471 billion to charity in 2020, according to Giving USA. Of that sum, 69% was contributed by individuals like you and me, as opposed to foundations or corporations, plus another 9% took the form of bequests.
Are you charitably inclined? Donor-advised funds can offer a tax-efficient way to make financial gifts, allowing folks to fund their own giving foundation and then direct money to charities for years to come.

Read more »

My “Dark Side” of Generosity: How I’m Curbing it in Retirement.

I’ve always had a bit of a dark side, one I never really tried to control and certainly didn’t think of as a problem. This was especially true when I ran my own business. Through sheer effort and hard work, that business threw off a lot of free cash flow. With all that cash sloshing around, I christened my peculiar habit: Random Spontaneous Generosity (RSG).
RSG would manifest in unpredictable ways, at random times. For instance,

Read more »

Saving and Giving

I’m curious how folks have balanced considerations of financial security and charitable giving, particularly (but not only) those who share the Christian faith.
I’m in my early 40s. I have a wife (like me, a public employee) and two young children, and I have the opportunity to take a higher-paying job within my organization in the coming months.  I don’t anticipate increasing my spending with increasing income, at least not to any substantial degree. Rather, I’d either increase my savings,

Read more »

A Year for Generosity

MANY OF MY CLIENTS make donations to their favorite philanthropies in the final months of each year. With lower tax rates in the offing, this could be a good year to make such gifts—especially for those who have appreciated property to donate.
Many clients reflexively write checks, as that’s the easiest way to qualify their gifts for charitable deductions. But before they reach for their checkbooks, donors who want to make major gifts—and also lose less to the IRS—will do themselves a favor if they first familiarize themselves with other often-overlooked ways to contribute.

Read more »

Spotlight: Retzke

Status of the Social Security and Medicare Programs

Released: A SUMMARY OF THE 2025 ANNUAL REPORTS Social Security and Medicare Boards of Trustees "Based on our best estimates, this year's reports show that...... The Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) Trust Fund will be able to pay 100 percent of total scheduled benefits until 2033, unchanged from last year’s report. At that time, the fund’s reserves will become depleted and continuing program income will be sufficient to pay 77 percent of total scheduled benefits......" "As in prior years, we found that the Social Security and Medicare programs both continue to face significant financing issues. The non-health-specific intermediate (best estimate) assumptions for these reports were set in December 2024. The Trustees will continue to monitor developments, reevaluate the assumptions, and modify the projections in later reports." For more information go to the SS website: https://www.ssa.gov/oact/trsum/
Read more »

AI and my electric bill

My electric utility is using AI analysis of my usage patterns to determine how my home uses electricity. For example, identifying various appliances by their energy signature. For several months it has been providing me with a summary. Is this useful?  Well, knowing this implies I can make changes if I choose to exercise some control.  For example, altering my cooling thermostat setting.  Of course, ambient, outdoor temperatures and amount of sunlight are a factor.  Or, I could add some timers to reduce "always on" power consumption. How is this determined? For example, a washing machine goes through various phases; adding water, soaking, washing and spinning to dry the clothes. A refrigerator has a continuous, 24 hour cycle. Etc. Certain appliances have a larger energy spike. Air conditioning can be identified by its larger draw, particularly when the compressor is energized. My power company tells me there is some comparative analysis, too which is “learned” over time. So here is the way my electric company sees my usage for the most recent 29 day billing period: Cooling $21 Always on: $15 Laundry: $7 Refrigeration: $5 Cooking $3 Entertainment: $1 Lighting $1 Other Appliances $1 29 day Total $83.66
Read more »

CalPERS Adapts a Total Portfolio Approach

In November 2025 CalPERS, a $600 billion pension plan, announced it would adopt the Total Portfolio Approach. The model rethinks portfolio construction. “Instead of starting with a fixed split, such as 60% stocks and 40% bonds, it begins by examining how different investments behave…..The goal is a portfolio that behaves more predictably when markets get rough.” “The Total Portfolio Approach (TPA) is a holistic investment strategy that integrates all assets into a unified portfolio, focusing on overall performance rather than managing asset classes in isolation.” To accomplish this, the Total Portfolio Approach (TPA) groups investments by risk. The approach looks at how an investment acts in different market environments.   This alters the distinction of stocks and bonds. If you think this can get complex, you are correct.   TPA may look at 6 or more risk factors. I understand that TPA, at its core looks at two factors, Growth and Stability. From this perspective, high yield bonds are considered growth investments because they tend to behave more like equities during market downturns. On the other hand, Value stocks such as the Dividend Aristocrats behave more like Stability assets. This is somewhat intuitive, and investors have used stable, dividend paying companies to improve their portfolios for decades.  However, in practice attempting to follow the TPA metrics may be difficult and TPA isn’t perfect. I suppose, if simplified, it will provide another way to view portfolio makeup and diversification. Younger investors may not be interested in stability.  However, as I approached age 60 I shifted to viewing my retirement portfolio as a pension fund, and I made periodic changes to improve stability.  I've noticed my portfolio doesn't react to market downturns as might be expected based upon the allocation of stocks/bonds/cash.  
Read more »

Considering a Lost Decade When Retirement Planning

In a recent post, “lost decade” investment periods were mentioned. Looking at safe withdrawal rates, there is an assumption of portfolio continuity.   Uniform returns over a long period of time coupled with consistent withdrawals.    In such an environment, a portfolio which yields 6% annually can sustain a withdrawal rate that begins at 4% and the portfolio will increase in value.  But over 30 years it may decrease in purchasing power.  [1] But what if a “Lost Decade” occurs?  Financial writers have addressed this and I think those nearing or in retirement should consider such a scenario when making financial plans.  I’ve experienced several such decades and witnessed what occurred for retirees. The worst possible time for this to occur is when one is on the cusp of retirement. In such a situation a 30-year withdrawal period begins with a portfolio decrease and 10-years of stagnation. It is aggravated by portfolio draw-down. What might this look like?  For some, we might be able to ride it out. Take IRS mandated RMDs, but not spend them.  Instead, after paying taxes some or all is saved. If the first 10 years of the 30 year withdrawal period is a “Lost Decade” there may be very little or no portfolio appreciation during that period.  Furthermore, withdrawals may draw down the balance. In a lost decade a portfolio decreases in value by the amount withdrawn each year.  What occurs  to a  $100,000 portfolio with a 4% annual withdrawal? What is the portfolio value after 10 years? It is $66,483.20. In the 10th year a 4% withdrawal would be $2,639.52.  At the beginning of the 30 year period the withdrawal began at $4,000 but decreased each year thereafter. With the end of the decade, the portfolio may again appreciate. What if the remaining $66,483.20 portfolio is invested at 6% for 20 years and simultaneously 4% of the new balance is withdrawn each year?  In the final year, 30 years after beginning withdrawals the account balance would be $94,100 and the withdrawal would be $3,764.00. As can be seen, a lost decade can raise havoc for a retiree’s portfolio and actual withdrawals.  These begin at $4,000 but decreased each year, falling to about $2,640 and then rising gradually to $3,764.00.   Withdrawing more each year may deplete the portfolio. Compare this to a desireable 30 year period without a lost decade. If a $100,000 portfolio is invested at 6% and 4% is withdrawn each year, the portfolio will grow over time.  After 30 years it will be about $168,700.  The initial 4% withdrawal would be $4,000 and it would be possible to increase the amount each year. [1] Of course, over a 30 year period purchasing power will be severely eroded. Can we avoid this?  Well, the overall market will be beyond personal control.  However, there are steps we can take, in advance, to plan and prepare for these types of disruptions. [1] Morningstar’s 2026 outlook anticipates a 3.9% initial withdrawal rate for retirees and 2.46% inflation. https://www.morningstar.com/retirement/whats-safe-retirement-withdrawal-rate-2026   ==  
Read more »

What Could Possibly Go Wrong?

"U.S. Stocks Are Now Pricier Than They Were in the Dot-Com Era The S&P 500 has never been this expensive, or more concentrated in fewer companies" - WSJ 9/1/2025 Edited 9/2/2025 per Morningstar:   Morningstar US Market Index +10.90%  since June 1, 2025!  Tech stocks +16.1% over the same period. == Summary 200 Day Simple Moving Average: As of today (September 1, 2025), SPX index 200-day simple moving average is 5959.47, with the most recent change of +2.32 (+0.04%) on August 29, 2025. Over the past year, SPX index 200-day SMA has increased by +837.72 (+16.36%). SPX index 200-day SMA is now at all-time high. Furthermore, all of the components of Faber’s ‘Ivy-5’ portfolio are above their 10-month Simple Moving Average.    
Read more »

Using AI to create a robust investment plan

I’ve been dabbling in AI.  Began using precursor “Expert Systems” about 20 years ago, but the new apps are more generalized and interesting. I’m aware of the limitations and anyone who wants to use something like Gemini or ChatGPT should also be aware. They can (and do) generate false information with apparent confidence. This can deceive users. Such disinformation has been given the name "hallucination" or "confabulation" by AI experts. Interesting names for inaccuracy. However, using precise prompts seems to improve the response. I’ve been running tests on Gemini using a range of prompts to build an in-retirement portfolio. I call these "tests" because I have my answer to compare this AI expert to. My early explorations indicate this might be a useful tool to add to my other modelling methods such as Monte-Carlo simulations. I’m also exploring approaches to a more robust withdrawal strategy. All of this is to aid my younger spouse. If anyone is interested in Gemini's complete response, simply copy and paste my prompts into a query.  However, AI being what it is, I expect every response will be slightly different. Adding a few terms to the prompts does generate differing results. For example, I asked Gemini to: “Provide a model of an in-retirement portfolio. The portfolio is $1,500,000. Annual withdrawal is 5%. The portfolio is to have a duration of 25 years. Provide an optimal mix of stocks and cash or bonds. Stocks may include ETFs, individual stocks in the US and global. Minimize risk.” I used 5% withdrawal as a means to stress the response. I received a 1,000 word response. A statement of goals and assumptions (inflation, returns and withdrawal rate) were made. Then Gemini went on to provide an “Optimal Mix of Stocks, Bonds, and Cash (Risk-Minimized Focus)”, a “Detailed Asset Allocation”, “Withdrawal Strategy” and “Management & Rebalancing”. The portfolio was 50/50 bonds-cash/equities. It used specific ETFs in its examples. Gemini summed its response this way: “This model provides a robust framework for a risk-minimized, in-retirement portfolio designed for a 25-year duration with a 5% annual withdrawal. The emphasis on high-quality bonds and diversified equities aims to generate income, preserve capital, and offer some inflation protection, all while prioritizing risk management.” Adding Dividends. I then modified the query: ““Provide a model of an in-retirement portfolio. The initial value is $1,500,000. The initial withdrawal rate will be 5%. The duration is 25 years. Consider inflation and the possible returns from US and global stocks, as well as cash and bonds. Should dividend paying stocks be included and if so, what percentage of equities?” I received a more detailed 1,500 word response. This portfolio was 60% bonds-cash and 40% equities. It included a list of example ETFs for stocks and bonds. The allocation percentages of each were provided. A Bucket withdrawal approach was outlined. Gemini summed it this way: “This comprehensive portfolio model balances income generation, inflation protection, and growth, aiming to provide a sustainable retirement income stream for 25 years while effectively managing risk and leveraging the benefits of dividend-paying stocks.”
Read more »