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Trading Arguments

Adam M. Grossman  |  Dec 8, 2024

IMAGINE TAKING DOLLAR bills and inserting them into a shredder. This is how you might think about a concept that economists call “deadweight loss.” As its name suggests, a deadweight loss occurs when there’s an irrevocable loss of economic output.
Deadweight losses can occur under a variety of circumstances. Among them: when tariffs are imposed. It’s for that reason that the incoming administration’s tariff plan has raised concerns. But how worried should we be?

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How Quickly We Forget by Jonathan Clements

Jonathan Clements  |  Dec 6, 2024

In late November, I wrote an article that encouraged readers to stick with foreign stocks. I suspected the article would receive a mixed reaction. I wasn’t disappointed.
Meanwhile, there’s a move afoot to put out a compilation of my old Wall Street Journal columns, which will likely appear after my death. The book’s royalties will be used to fund what I hope will be a unique financial-literacy effort geared toward young adults from less-affluent families.

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How Often Do You Calculate Your Net Worth And Why

David Lancaster  |  Nov 29, 2024

I was just reading an article on net worth on Boldin (previously New Retirement), and it got me wondering how often this is performed, and why, by my fellow HumbleDollar readers.
As for me, as I have written before, I calculate this number quarterly because we’re living off of our retirement assets until, most likely, we turn 70 in 3-4 years. If our retirement assets sink to an admittedly somewhat random level, we would claim my wife’s (the lower income’s) benefit to stretch our savings.

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John Rekenthaler’s Farewell, For Now

William Perry  |  Nov 15, 2024

On 11/12/2024 John Rekenthaler’s last regularly scheduled column for Morningstar was published.  The column shares his thoughts about his career, the future and a self described tale of triumph in moving from full time writing in the financial arena to the retirement of his choosing which may include some writing as he plans to continue to submit articles to Morningstar when a topic interests him.
I have enjoyed his regular columns, I look forward to any future ones he graces us with and will miss his writing when those future articles eventually ends.

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When Easy Money Bites

David Gartland  |  Nov 12, 2024

IN THE EARLY 1980s, I was a bachelor in Brooklyn. Unskilled at cooking, I didn’t eat at home unless my food came out of a cereal box or snack bag. For regular meals, I depended on a small neighborhood diner.
It was open for breakfast, lunch and dinner seven days a week. On weekends, it was my main source of food. Like so many diners I’ve visited since, it offered complete meals—soup, main course and dessert—for one price.

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Who is on Your Personal Investing Mount Rushmore, and Why?

David Lancaster  |  Nov 8, 2024

Mine are:
1) John Bogle- founder of Vanguard
When I was beginning my investing journey I discovered this icon. His sage advice such as costs matter, and most investors can’t beat the market so just use index funds led me to financial independence and a comfortable retirement. Also there is most likely no individual who has saved individual investors more money saving because of his push to lower  investment fees.
2) Christine Benz- Personal investment author at Morningstar
When I read her articles on bucket portfolios,

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Is your net worth, worth it and what’s in it? RDQ

R Quinn  |  Oct 28, 2024

 What is your net worth? No, I’m not asking a personal financial question. 
Rather, the question is what is included in your net worth? The standard definition of net worth is a financial metric that represents the total value of a person’s assets minus their total liabilities. In simpler terms, it’s what you own minus what you owe.
I don’t think it’s that simple. I view it as two calculations, estate net worth and practical net worth.

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Dazed and Confused.

Michael l Berard  |  Oct 25, 2024

I have just read in the WSJ and Barron’s that a majority of active bond funds are outperforming passive index funds. I do not understand. I thought that ,thanks to HumbleDollar,that a vast majority of active funds do not beat the indexes, for reasons we are all aware of.
Please, is this an apples to apples comparison? If it isn’ t, would it be that a respected paper is omitting crucial information? Jonathon told me a few weeks ago that itis probably because of lower credit quality,etc.,

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Cash position vs stay infested when market is overpriced

handy Man IRD  |  Oct 19, 2024

Hi all,
I am a new sunscriber. Would like to get your thoughts on the topic of increasing cash position vs. stay invested when the market is high. As we know, the current US market is fully / over-priced, Mr. Warren Buffett has been increasing Berkshire’s cash position and pausing major buying (in the US market). There are tendency to exit equity market (or reduce position). On the other hand, we often heard we should stay invested and not interrupt the compounding process of equities –

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Hedging your bet in retirement-dealing with inflation. What’s your strategy?

R Quinn  |  Sep 28, 2024

It’s real, it’s global, it can’t be stopped and it can be good or bad.
It is inflation. 
I had someone tell me recently that U.S. annual inflation has been 10% for the last several years.  That is not true of course although it may feel like it to some people. 
My guaranteed income is a pension and Social Security. There is no COLA on my pension. Since I retired in 2010, the buying power on the great majority of my income has eroded by 43%. 

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Sequence of Return Risk

David Lancaster  |  Sep 27, 2024

Financial articles warn about sequence of return risk early in retirement. A retiree who experiences a poor stock market early in retirement has a lower portfolio to withdraw from going forward potentially putting their retirement finances in jeopardy. Someone who experiences a down market later in retirement is at less risk of poor returns affecting their financial security as they have less years that they have to fund expenses.
My question is does anyone really know when they are past this danger zone?

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Didn’t Say That by Jonathan Clements

Jonathan Clements  |  Sep 20, 2024

When I get an article to edit that includes a quote from a famous person, I almost always put the quote into a search engine to make sure the person in question really said it. Often, it was somebody completely different—or, alternatively, it’s not clear who said it.
Consider five examples:

“The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.” This one is frequently attributed to the economist John Maynard Keynes. But it was probably said by the financial analyst A.

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Is Your Broad Market Index ETF Suffering Tech Bloat?

steve abramowitz  |  Sep 9, 2024

You don’t need Eli Lilly’s Ozempic to slim down. If you want to lose some of that tech bloating in your S&P 500 or total market index fund, I’ve got just the medicine to reduce the overweight.
Several sponsors offer ETFs that cut your exposure to possibly overvalued large technology stocks by weighting each company in the sector equally rather than by size. This strategy greatly reduces the impact of the largest companies in the fund,

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Armed and Ready

Adam M. Grossman  |  Sep 1, 2024

COULD SOMETHING like the Great Depression happen again? During that unpleasant episode, the stock market dropped 90%, unemployment rose to 25% and gross domestic product fell 30%. In making a financial plan, is this a scenario we should worry about?
While no one can predict the future, it’s worth taking a closer look at one key variable: the Federal Reserve. Today, the Fed has a reputation for helping smooth out economic cycles. But those who worry about Depression-like scenarios point out how powerless the Fed was to prevent the collapse that occurred in the 1920s and 30s.

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Ignore the Rule

Adam M. Grossman  |  Aug 11, 2024

MARKET OBSERVERS have been predicting a recession for the past two years. Why? They’ve pointed to what’s known as an inverted yield curve, when short-term interest rates are higher than long-term rates. Historically, this has been a bad omen for the economy. The yield curve has been inverted since 2022—and yet, despite that, the economy has remained strong and stock markets have continued to hit new highs.
That all changed on Aug. 2, when a little-known indicator known as the Sahm rule began flashing red.

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