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Compared to What?

Nick Levinson  |  Jul 17, 2025

When news on the radio says that a given investment instrument’s price is up or down by some stated percentage or monetary amount, but it doesn’t say what that’s compared to, is there a convention defining this? For example, do they mean a year ago, a day ago, a minute ago, since the last opening or closing, or since some event that is in the news about that instrument, such as a board choosing a new company president?

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Morningstar’s Historical Review of the Benefits of the 60/40 Portfolios During Market Downturns

David Lancaster  |  Jul 14, 2025

Today Morningstar released a very interesting article exploring how a 60/40 portfolio diversification limits losses during market declines. Of note is the fact that due to the 2022 bond market swoon this portfolio has still not fully recovered.
You can read the article here:
150 Years of Stock and Bond Market Crashes: How the 60/40 Portfolio Held Up | Morningstar
Here are some highlights:
There have been 19 bear markets for stocks and three bear markets for bonds over the past 150 years—that is,

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Lucky Us and the Generational Divide

Mark Crothers  |  Jul 5, 2025

Sometimes, the big picture that frames your life can just happen without much thought, mostly by luck. I guess not everyone who has good fortune like this will admit anything other than hard work and true grit got them to where they are now. Take myself; I claim some credit for what I’ve achieved, but I had a lot of good tailwinds that certainly helped immensely.
I was part of the last UK generation eligible for free higher education.

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Holy Cow! Holding The Line in a Market Stampede

Mark Crothers  |  Jul 2, 2025

Last night after dinner, I went for a cycle. When at our holiday home, it’s one of my favourite routes: it goes along behind sand dunes on a wooden boardwalk until reaching the Giant’s Causeway. From there, it’s a push up onto the cliff-top paths. After a few miles, there’s a steep descent with cliffs on one side and a field with cows on the other. I normally dismount and carefully walk my bike down, but I decided to freewheel while on my bike.

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Breaking Up 2

DAN SMITH  |  Jul 1, 2025

It’s been almost 4 months since I began account transfers to Fidelity.

I began on March 3 with a $500 deposit to open a joint cash management account. I also ordered and soon received a stack of free checks. (For the benefit of Gen Z and some Millenial readers, checks are little pieces of paper that grandparents use instead of cash).
Next came the money market account transfer from an existing firm, which I call our disaster fund. 

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Good in Theory

Adam M. Grossman  |  Jun 14, 2025

STATISTICIAN GEORGE E.P. Box once made this observation: “All models are wrong,” he said, “but some are useful.” This certainly applies to finance, where many of the concepts are imperfect but can nonetheless still be useful. Below are four such examples.
Market valuation. Are stocks overpriced? It’s a question without an easy answer. Even academics who have studied the topic can never be entirely sure. Consider the cyclically adjusted price-earnings (CAPE) ratio.

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You Never Know

Adam M. Grossman  |  Jun 7, 2025

LAST WEEK, I MENTIONED the 17th century Dutch tulip bubble. There’s a lot we can learn from history. Current events, however, can teach us just as much. Below are three valuable lessons I see in today’s market.
Myopia. Open any finance textbook, and you’ll find that most of its ideas are built on the notion of “present value.” This simply means an investment should be worth the sum of its future cash flows.

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Why Bitcoin?

Dan Murray  |  May 31, 2025

I’ve been investing since the early 1980s. I have a business degree and took investing classes. A close friend of my parents wrote the first investing book I read at age 10, called Stock Market ABC by Joanne K. Friedlander and Jean Neal, published in 1969 and given to me on my 10th birthday in April of that year. This started my interest in investing. I also have a background in technology, going back to 1982.

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Up Because It’s Up

Adam M. Grossman  |  May 31, 2025

BITCOIN HIT A NEW high last week, topping $112,000. Over the past 12 months, it’s climbed an impressive 55%.
What’s driving this gain, and what should you make of it? I believe there are three key factors. Two are new. One is not.
The first factor was a policy change last year. The federal government approved the launch of new exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that offer easier and more direct access to bitcoin. Following this rule change,

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Dual Momentum?

Alex Liu  |  May 30, 2025

I recently posted on the forum (thank you for the responses) about getting out of the market, but that wasn’t the full story….
We’ve been invested 100% in stocks for a number of years and have reaped the rewards, however, general anxiety and market fluctuations don’t mix. I hated giving up the gains by migrating to a 60/40 (I am a victim to recency bias) and after reading Gary Antonacci’s Dual Momentum, I thought I had found the solution to my quandary.

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Listen to the Markets

Jonathan Clements  |  May 25, 2025

Every so often, markets go stark, raving mad. Think about the tech-stock bubble of the late 1990s or the real-estate market in 2005 and 2006. But most of the time, markets—which reflect the collective wisdom of all participants—are smarter than any one individual. For proof, look no further than the sorry track record of professional money managers.
That’s why I think it’s worth paying attention to how the stock, bond and currency markets react to news.

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Feeling Moody

Adam M. Grossman  |  May 24, 2025

IF THE NAME LIZ TRUSS sounds vaguely familiar, there’s a reason: Truss was once the prime minister of the U.K.—but for just 45 days.
How did Truss lose public confidence so quickly? The bond market forced her out. Shortly after taking office in the fall of 2022, Truss proposed substantial tax cuts for both corporations and individuals. That would have been a popular move, except that her budget didn’t include any offsetting spending cuts.

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Ignore Valuations?

Jonathan Clements  |  May 21, 2025

Make no mistake: Stocks are expensive, with the companies in the S&P 500-index currently at 28 times trailing 12-month reported earnings, offering a dividend yield of just 1.3% and sporting a Shiller price-earnings ratio of 37. All three metrics suggest stocks are pricey by historical standards.
Meanwhile, with far less risk, investors can collect 4.5% in annual interest with 10-year Treasury notes and an inflation-adjusted 2.1% with 10-year inflation-indexed Treasurys. Alternatively, for those who favor cash investments,

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Getting Back into the Market Now

Alex Liu  |  May 20, 2025

Hypothetically, say you lost your nerve and pulled you money out of the market because you thought it was obvious the entire economy was ready to collapse due to incredibly high valuations for both stocks and real estate and finally implementing tariffs, only to witness the market quickly recover. How would you get back in?
I suppose this person (not me, of course, since I am a long term index investor) would be best served using a dollar cost average,

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Another Great Post by Mike Piper

David Lancaster  |  May 6, 2025

https://obliviousinvestor.com/the-value-of-a-second-opinion/

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