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Index Fund Bubble

Adam M. Grossman  |  Dec 6, 2025

CRITICS OF INDEX FUNDS are pursuing a new line of attack. Passive investing, they argue, is distorting market prices and creating an unhealthy bubble.
To be sure, the market today is expensive. The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of the S&P 500 stands at about 22. That’s substantially above its long-term average of about 16. Of more concern, that metric is approaching a level not seen since the market peak in 2000, just before stocks dropped 57%.

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What’s Really On My Mind

Dennis Friedman  |  Dec 3, 2025

MY RETIREMENT HAS been wonderful so far. Honestly, sometimes I have to stop and remind myself how lucky I am. Rachel and I have our health and enjoy each other’s company, which is not always true when a couple retires. However, there are four things that concern me as I reach my mid-70s.
Loneliness
I tried calling Mark, my old high school friend, a couple of weeks ago, and I haven’t heard from him.

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Decision Frameworks

Adam M. Grossman  |  Nov 29, 2025

IN THE SUMMER of 1966, author John McPhee spent two weeks lying on a picnic table in his backyard. Why?
McPhee was suffering from writer’s block. As he described it, “I had assembled enough material to fill a silo, and now I had no idea what to do with it.”
Investors find themselves in a similar situation today. There’s no shortage of financial information around us. But that doesn’t make it easier to know what to do with it. 

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Asset Location Decisions

Bogdan Sheremeta  |  Nov 29, 2025

WHERE YOU PUT your investments can make a huge difference for your after-tax wealth. 
As you know, we have 3 main investment accounts:

Taxable account. A traditional brokerage account where you are taxed every time you dividends or sell investments at a gain.
Tax deferred account. Traditional 401(k), 403(b), and traditional IRAs allow taxes to be deferred to the future. You pay taxes when your investments are withdrawn, and generally come with an immediate tax deduction.

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Private Equity Traps

Adam M. Grossman  |  Nov 15, 2025

IN APRIL 2005, art dealers Robert Simon and Alex Parish traveled to New Orleans to attend an auction. They were particularly interested in a work titled Salvator Mundi. The painting was in bad shape, having been neglected for years. But Simon and Parish ended up bidding on it and taking it home for $10,000.
After some restoration work, the pair succeeded in having it authenticated as a work of Leonardo da Vinci.

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AI Rally Market Risks

Adam M. Grossman  |  Nov 8, 2025

LAST WEEK, OPENAI founder Sam Altman sat down for an interview with venture capitalist Brad Gerstner and Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella. Both are investors in OpenAI, so it seemed like a friendly audience. But Gerstner posed a question that seemed to make Altman uncomfortable.
Since introducing ChatGPT three years ago, OpenAI has posted impressive growth, but Gerstner wondered whether the company was, nonetheless, getting ahead of itself.
“How can a company with $13 billion in revenues make $1.4 trillion of spend commitments?” Gerstner asked.

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Lessons from First Brands

Adam M. Grossman  |  Nov 1, 2025

SOME NEWS STORIES are unusual in ways that it’s hard to know what to make of them. Such is the case with the recent collapse of a relatively unknown company called First Brands.
On the surface, it might seem like a mundane story. First Brands is an auto parts supplier, making commodity items like brake pads and windshield wipers. The company was founded in 2013 by a fellow named Patrick James, who built it up over the years by acquiring several other,

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Is The Stock Market Overvalued?

Adam M. Grossman  |  Oct 18, 2025

STOCK MARKET INVESTORS are enjoying yet another strong year. The S&P 500 has gained about 14% so far, shrugging off, for the most part, uncertainty over tariffs, interest rates and the latest government shutdown.
Should this worry us?
Since ancient times, soothsayers have been attempting—without luck—to forecast the future. As it relates to investment markets, the frustrating reality is that no one knows what the future will bring. But that doesn’t mean there’s nothing we can do.

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How Not To Invest

Adam M. Grossman  |  Oct 11, 2025

BARRY RITHOLTZ’S NEW BOOK, How Not to Invest, offers investors a cautionary tale—many of them, in fact.
Ritholtz has been in and around the investment industry for more than 30 years—as a trader, a journalist and, most recently, as cofounder of a wealth management firm. 
In short, he is no stranger to Wall Street. His conclusion? It can be a minefield.
Bad actors like Charles Ponzi and Bernie Madoff are well known.

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Managing Concentration Risk

Adam M. Grossman  |  Oct 4, 2025

LARRY ELLISON, THE 81-YEAR-OLD cofounder of Oracle Corporation, recently became the world’s wealthiest person.
Oracle, a software company, isn’t nearly as large as its peers. So how did Ellison’s net worth manage to surpass that of Bill Gates, Jeff Bezos and the founders of other much larger companies?
The answer is simple: In the nearly 50 years since Oracle’s founding, Ellison has almost never sold a share of his company’s stock. According to an analysis by Smart Insider,

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Best Bond Funds for Your Portfolio: Treasurys, Corporates, and Municipals Explained

Adam M. Grossman  |  Sep 20, 2025

FOR MANY INVESTORS, talking about bonds is about as interesting as watching paint dry. They aren’t nearly as interesting as stocks. But if you have a portion of your portfolio allocated to bonds, or plan to, it’s a topic worth some discussion.
The bond market is actually much larger and much more diverse than the stock market. For most investors, though, there are just a few types of bonds to consider. We can examine each in turn:
Total Bond Market
Perhaps the most well known type of bond investment is a total-market fund.

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This post contains a secret and words I used in a few forum posts ago. Why is it not encouraging.

R Quinn  |  Sep 2, 2025

The secret is revealed at the end.

TIME VALUE OF MONEY, asset class, diversification, dollar-cost averaging: This is the language of investment professionals. But it isn’t the language of everyday Americans, including those saving for retirement in their employer’s 401(k) plan.
Trust me, I know. During my nearly 30 years overseeing 401(k) plans, including providing financial education to participants, it became clear to me that using such plans as intended wasn’t easy for most people.

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Are We an AI-Driven Economy?

Rick Connor  |  Aug 13, 2025

We often hear that we are a consumer driven economy, with estimates that consumer spending provides as much as 70% of GDP. I read a recent article by Ben Carlson that indicated that, at least for this year, Big Tech’s capital expenditure spending on AI is approaching a similar level. The Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index (I had no idea this existed) is up about 39% over the past year, compared to about 19% for the S&P 500.

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Tariffs and PPP (People Purchasing Power)

Feisal Brahim  |  Aug 12, 2025

Since Trump’s return as POTUS everyone is inundated with the news about Trump’s tariffs on just about every country in the world. His reasoning is that other counties have always taken advantage of the USA, and it is time that the USA rights the imbalance of trade.  He has said that he has always believed in tariffs, harking back to before 1913 when income tax was implemented. Of course, any thinking person would know that these tariffs are paid by the importers,

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The spreadsheet conundrum when the stakes are high.

R Quinn  |  Aug 11, 2025

The Congressional Budget Office (OMB), the Council of Economic Advisors (CEA), the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB), the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) all use quite sophisticated forms of a spreadsheet and they all come up with different projections for debt, deficits, GDP and inflation, etc. … because they use different assumptions. 
See, I told you so, those darn spreadsheets will find any answer you like.😱😁

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