AUTHOR: quan nguyen on 7/21/2025 FIRST: Michael1 on 7/21 | RECENT: David Powell on 7/22
Comments
Wisdom, illness, and dementia await us near the end. I've learned that an unexamined portfolio is not worth keeping, but I'm afraid my timing will forget me before I remember to check it :)
Public school funding mechanisms vary vastly across states. California caps the property tax rates but guarantees a minimum share of the state budget for K-14 education. School districts also turn to general bonds and special parcel taxes for even more funding. This hybrid funding mechanism leaves room for local control, reduces inequality but suffers from economic volatilities. California schools got just above $23K per pupil per year in 2024, compared to $15K in Texas. Whether homeowners or renters, all residents have a stake in supporting education in the shared journey toward a better future.
"Dynamic Pricing" is better understood as supplier's pricing based on algorithms. (It does not apply to stock trading, where the market sets the price.) It started with American Airlines back in the 1980s, then it spread to hotel and car rental. With smart phone apps, even a ride on Uber or Waymo, or a Starbuck order carries different prices for different consumers based on locations, time of order, etc. Consumer acceptance - or backlash - largely depends on perception of fairness. Most consumers will gladly pay extra to snag a box seat or first-class ticket - when supply is truly limited, there is nothing quite like view from a velvet rope. On the other hand, they would resent "price gouging," however it is defined. Everybody seems to love a sale or martinee prices, but true discount depends on the actual sales at the maximum prices. So-called digital coupons are nothing more than an exchange of personal / behavioral data for a small discount. Premium credit cards used to offer price protection, but these card benefits have become rare and cardholders must go through cumbersome claims.
Thanks for the note on XDIV. I just had a quick look: it invests in 4 EFTs that track S&P 500, with 99.97% in IVV at present. The prospectus seems to say that it would sell all IVV shares before the published ex-dividend date. To announce the trade ahead of time seems to be an invitation to all "Flash boys" to come for free lunch. Unless the Roundhill management has another fund to buy them without going through an exchange, the strategy does not make sense to me. But then again, I'm not a professional trader, and the trading machinery is a black box even for the pros.
My take from this Morningstar's article: 1) Stock buyback vs dividend: a game played by corporation's board of directors, too complicated for retail investors to evaluate - best to ignore such games. If interested, pay attention to total shareholder yields 2) Dividend investors: there are many ways to get regular incomes: safe withdrawal rate from investment, share dividends, interest from bonds, annuity payments: talk to your financial advisor.
Dr. Physick, called the father of American surgery, brought the scientific approach in surgery from Europe to the U.S. in 1800s. But with bloodletting as the main treatment for nearly every ailment, no anesthesia, and germ theory still a few decades away (hence no aseptic surgical practice), it's hard to see why anyone would pine for those "good old days of health insurance." Modern health insurance bleeds us financially, but back then it drained both our wallets and our veins.
I thought this misinformation was addressed already in this forum back in July 2025 with the article titled "A major Medicare benefit just vanished." If anyone is interested in the truth, go to CMS official website, which clearly states the program is a six-year pilot and voluntary
From my years of training and indoctrination, I believe that my mind is controlled by the brain: the left hemisphere looks for things in the world to acquire, and the right hemisphere tries to find my proper place in the world for meaning (1). Modern neuroscience shows they need to work together, yet our culture prizes the left's efficiency with logic, language game, accumulation, while neglecting the right's mastery for connection and wonder. Only when survival and ambition quiet down does the mind truly and fully engages with life. The world reveals its hidden beauty beyond words. The cup of coffee contains the whole universe: warm sun, flavor of the earth and the beans, taste of the seasons, light reflection, soft sound with every sip. The moment is complete, without thinking "myself" or "my retirement" into it. (1) Iain McGilchrist's The Master and His Emissary (2009)
"brilliant trader or a brilliant investor?" Some may aspire to be both, or neither. In the beginning, there was no aspiration, only a deep breath before plunging into the market with the goal: not to lose money. I have been both a trader and an investor, though only by hindsight. Good investor needs some market awareness to anchor financial goals. Market awareness, in turn, comes from understanding market signals, liquidity, price discovery offered by traders / speculators. Deep knowledge requires active participation: to know the water means to get wet. I know people who were traders during the dotcom era. They became reluctant investors in the early 2000s, then left the equity market completely after the Great Financial Crisis. Some experts say "You're not an investor until you've held through a bear market without flinching." I may think I aspire to be an investor, but I have my cognitive biases too: loss aversion, FOMO, overconfidence, recency memory, the whole nine yard.
"Seems it never rains in Southern California." My crystal ball gives the following economic weather prediction: stagflation inflation = 3% annually
US GDP growth = zero
S&P 500 = nominal zero to 5% - 3% inflation = -3% to +2% real growth
International ex-US positive 5 to 7% annually - 3% inflation = 2 to 4% real growth (mostly from dollar devaluation)
US bonds = wild volatility like stocks (including TIPs)
Cash = guaranteed loss of purchasing power
AI dividends = earned by a few companies and individuals, loss for most workers, utility consumers. If my crystal ball shatters, I'll have sharked glass on my hand
Comments
Wisdom, illness, and dementia await us near the end. I've learned that an unexamined portfolio is not worth keeping, but I'm afraid my timing will forget me before I remember to check it :)
Post: I don’t know. Or care. But I will at the end of April.
Link to comment from October 30, 2025
Public school funding mechanisms vary vastly across states. California caps the property tax rates but guarantees a minimum share of the state budget for K-14 education. School districts also turn to general bonds and special parcel taxes for even more funding. This hybrid funding mechanism leaves room for local control, reduces inequality but suffers from economic volatilities. California schools got just above $23K per pupil per year in 2024, compared to $15K in Texas. Whether homeowners or renters, all residents have a stake in supporting education in the shared journey toward a better future.
Post: Public Schools and Property Taxes
Link to comment from October 28, 2025
"Dynamic Pricing" is better understood as supplier's pricing based on algorithms. (It does not apply to stock trading, where the market sets the price.) It started with American Airlines back in the 1980s, then it spread to hotel and car rental. With smart phone apps, even a ride on Uber or Waymo, or a Starbuck order carries different prices for different consumers based on locations, time of order, etc. Consumer acceptance - or backlash - largely depends on perception of fairness. Most consumers will gladly pay extra to snag a box seat or first-class ticket - when supply is truly limited, there is nothing quite like view from a velvet rope. On the other hand, they would resent "price gouging," however it is defined. Everybody seems to love a sale or martinee prices, but true discount depends on the actual sales at the maximum prices. So-called digital coupons are nothing more than an exchange of personal / behavioral data for a small discount. Premium credit cards used to offer price protection, but these card benefits have become rare and cardholders must go through cumbersome claims.
Post: Hit With Dynamic Pricing! Has this happened to you?
Link to comment from October 9, 2025
Thanks for the note on XDIV. I just had a quick look: it invests in 4 EFTs that track S&P 500, with 99.97% in IVV at present. The prospectus seems to say that it would sell all IVV shares before the published ex-dividend date. To announce the trade ahead of time seems to be an invitation to all "Flash boys" to come for free lunch. Unless the Roundhill management has another fund to buy them without going through an exchange, the strategy does not make sense to me. But then again, I'm not a professional trader, and the trading machinery is a black box even for the pros.
Post: Are You a Dividend Investor? If so Read This!
Link to comment from October 9, 2025
My take from this Morningstar's article: 1) Stock buyback vs dividend: a game played by corporation's board of directors, too complicated for retail investors to evaluate - best to ignore such games. If interested, pay attention to total shareholder yields 2) Dividend investors: there are many ways to get regular incomes: safe withdrawal rate from investment, share dividends, interest from bonds, annuity payments: talk to your financial advisor.
Post: Are You a Dividend Investor? If so Read This!
Link to comment from October 9, 2025
Dr. Physick, called the father of American surgery, brought the scientific approach in surgery from Europe to the U.S. in 1800s. But with bloodletting as the main treatment for nearly every ailment, no anesthesia, and germ theory still a few decades away (hence no aseptic surgical practice), it's hard to see why anyone would pine for those "good old days of health insurance." Modern health insurance bleeds us financially, but back then it drained both our wallets and our veins.
Post: THE GOOD OLD DAYS OF HEALTH INSURANCE
Link to comment from October 8, 2025
I thought this misinformation was addressed already in this forum back in July 2025 with the article titled "A major Medicare benefit just vanished." If anyone is interested in the truth, go to CMS official website, which clearly states the program is a six-year pilot and voluntary
Post: Medicare Advantage update- it may be a bumpy ride.
Link to comment from October 6, 2025
From my years of training and indoctrination, I believe that my mind is controlled by the brain: the left hemisphere looks for things in the world to acquire, and the right hemisphere tries to find my proper place in the world for meaning (1). Modern neuroscience shows they need to work together, yet our culture prizes the left's efficiency with logic, language game, accumulation, while neglecting the right's mastery for connection and wonder. Only when survival and ambition quiet down does the mind truly and fully engages with life. The world reveals its hidden beauty beyond words. The cup of coffee contains the whole universe: warm sun, flavor of the earth and the beans, taste of the seasons, light reflection, soft sound with every sip. The moment is complete, without thinking "myself" or "my retirement" into it. (1) Iain McGilchrist's The Master and His Emissary (2009)
Post: The Real Wealth of Retirement (Hint: It’s Not Financial)
Link to comment from October 6, 2025
"brilliant trader or a brilliant investor?" Some may aspire to be both, or neither. In the beginning, there was no aspiration, only a deep breath before plunging into the market with the goal: not to lose money. I have been both a trader and an investor, though only by hindsight. Good investor needs some market awareness to anchor financial goals. Market awareness, in turn, comes from understanding market signals, liquidity, price discovery offered by traders / speculators. Deep knowledge requires active participation: to know the water means to get wet. I know people who were traders during the dotcom era. They became reluctant investors in the early 2000s, then left the equity market completely after the Great Financial Crisis. Some experts say "You're not an investor until you've held through a bear market without flinching." I may think I aspire to be an investor, but I have my cognitive biases too: loss aversion, FOMO, overconfidence, recency memory, the whole nine yard.
Post: Are You a Trader or an Investor?
Link to comment from October 6, 2025
"Seems it never rains in Southern California." My crystal ball gives the following economic weather prediction: stagflation inflation = 3% annually US GDP growth = zero S&P 500 = nominal zero to 5% - 3% inflation = -3% to +2% real growth International ex-US positive 5 to 7% annually - 3% inflation = 2 to 4% real growth (mostly from dollar devaluation) US bonds = wild volatility like stocks (including TIPs) Cash = guaranteed loss of purchasing power AI dividends = earned by a few companies and individuals, loss for most workers, utility consumers. If my crystal ball shatters, I'll have sharked glass on my hand
Post: Cloudy with Scattered Bubbles
Link to comment from October 3, 2025