Path to Retirement
Kenyon Sayler | Nov 17, 2023
SOME FRIENDS WERE recently discussing their investment performance. I couldn’t contribute to the conversation—because I have no idea what our investment returns have been. The fact is, I don’t find performance information all that valuable, plus it’s relatively hard to calculate since you have to account for both price changes and dividend or interest payments. To be sure, investment returns are useful if you’re looking to determine whether a mutual fund manager is adding returns in excess of a benchmark index, also known as generating alpha. But since I invest mainly in index mutual funds and exchange-traded index funds, I’m not expecting to achieve any alpha. Moreover, folks don’t spend investment returns. Instead, what they spend are dollars. I can have terrific returns, but if I don’t have much invested, it won’t amount to much. So how do I track our financial progress? Every year, I calculate the net worth—all financial accounts minus all debt—for my wife and me. I then take that figure, and look at measures that assess net worth or total savings as a multiple of your salary. Different financial firms have slightly different guidelines. For instance, as you can see from the accompanying chart, T. Rowe Price says that 45-year-olds should have financial assets that are two to four times their annual salary. Savings benchmarks are also available from Fidelity Investments and in Charles Farrell's book Your Money Ratios. The idea behind these measures: Your net worth or total savings should hit the various age milestones—and, if it does, you’re on track to retire in comfort in your 60s. HumbleDollar’s Two-Minute Checkup uses a similar methodology to assess a user’s “financial fitness.” Even though I have no idea what our investment returns have been, I can track our net worth as a multiple of our salaries, and…
Read more » Mutual Admiration
Kenyon Sayler | Jun 7, 2022
LIKE MANY PEOPLE who read HumbleDollar, I greatly respect Warren Buffett’s opinions and insights. I’ve even attended Berkshire Hathaway’s annual shareholder meeting in Omaha. Now that it’s broadcast, I reserve the Saturday of the meeting to watch it on the web. Seeing it from a distance means I miss out on the terrific deals various Berkshire companies offer shareholders who attend in person. By attending virtually, however, I don’t have to navigate the crowds or spend six hours driving to Omaha and another six hours returning home. I almost always spend the entire meeting nodding in agreement with the comments made by Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway Vice Chairman Charlie Munger. This year’s meeting started similarly. Then I heard an opinion with which I disagreed. During a question about Berkshire’s insurance company, Geico, Buffett said something that jolted me from my chair and had me shouting at the monitor. What could cause such an outburst? When speaking of Geico’s competitor, State Farm Insurance, Buffett said, “The largest auto insurance company in the United States was started over in Illinois by a guy who didn’t know anything about insurance particularly. And it’s a mutual company. It’s not supposed to succeed in capitalism.” Not succeed in capitalism? These words startled me because I’ve always been a huge believer in cooperatives and mutual companies. The reason goes back to my early childhood. I first learned about cooperatives when I was a young boy visiting my grandfather’s farm. My father made sure to fill our car with gas at the local co-op. Why? Grandpa would get back some of the money we’d spent in the annual dividend payment made to the co-op’s members at year-end. What a great idea, I thought. Local farmers had banded together to purchase costly goods at wholesale prices. Why should…
Read more » Famous Last Words
Kenyon Sayler | Jul 31, 2022
YOU PROBABLY RECALL many firsts: Your first car, your first kiss, maybe even the first stock you purchased. Firsts are exciting. Firsts are easy to demark. You’ve never purchased an item before, so—when you do purchase it—it’s a first. By contrast, lasts sneak up on you. There’s always a chance that you’ll replace an item one more time. My wife has caused me to start thinking about my lasts. This winter, my 36-year-old winter mittens finally wore out. In fairness, it was the outer mitten that wore out. I’d earlier replaced the wool liners three times. When I went looking for a new pair, I was startled by the $80 price tag. My wife said, “Don’t worry about the cost. This will be the last pair you’ll ever buy.” That shocked me. But realistically, in 36 years, I’ll be replacing this pair of mittens when I’m age 98. Assuming that I’m still around, I’m less likely to be doing winter camping or walking the dog in the dead of winter, so she’s probably correct. This will be my last pair of mittens. Our 26-year-old CRT television finally wore out. The replacement TV I purchase may be the last TV I’ll ever buy. If a new one lasts as long as my old one, I’ll be age 88 when it’s time to get a replacement. True, the odds are a bit better that I’ll need a new TV than a new pair of mittens—but not much. It can be a bit depressing to count down your life by the list of things that you’ll never need to purchase again. Still, I disagree with my wife on one item. She has said that our current dog will be my last dog. I’m only willing to concede that he will be the last…
Read more » Predictably Wrong
Kenyon Sayler | Dec 7, 2023
I DON’T USUALLY FOLLOW the NFL. But this year, I’ve made an exception—because the current season offers a valuable lesson not just for football fans, but also for investors. Teams devote huge amounts of time, energy and money to determining who’s the best quarterback for their team. Yet, this year, three quarterbacks are leading their teams when most experts, who get paid to evaluate talent, didn’t give them much of a chance. Brock Purdy leads the San Francisco 49ers. He was the 2022 NFL draft’s 262nd and final pick, and became a third-string quarterback. As a rookie last year, due to injuries to the team’s two other quarterbacks, he was elevated to starter and took the 49ers to the NFC Championship game. Joshua Dobbs was the 2017 draft’s 135th pick, as well as the seventh quarterback to be selected. In seven years in the NFL, he’s bounced among seven teams, meaning the first six teams looked at him and decided they had better options. He started a total of 11 games for three teams. This season, only four days after being traded to Minnesota, he led the Vikings to victory over the Atlanta Falcons. It's not clear whether he'll remain the starting quarterback. Finally, Aidan O’Connell was the 2023 draft’s 135th pick. He was the third-string quarterback for the Las Vegas Raiders this season until injuries to the two other quarterbacks meant he got the starting position, and he won his first two games. To be sure, folks evaluating quarterbacks selected each of these players in the NFL draft. There are more than 250 Division I football teams and only 32 NFL teams, so just being selected says that the teams thought these quarterbacks were better than many of their college peers. What does any of this have to do…
Read more » What’s Your History?
Kenyon Sayler | Sep 14, 2021
WE ALL LIVE IN the same economy, but we experience it differently. How we react to today’s economic developments is heavily influenced by our upbringing and world events at that time. This is a key insight from the first chapter of Morgan Housel’s wonderful book The Psychology of Money. I can think of three things that have shaped my outlook—and lead me to a very different outlook from my children. First, my father grew up on a farm during the Great Depression. He never spoke about how hard it was. But one of my father's favorite evening snacks was a bowl of popcorn with milk on it. While I thought that was peculiar—nobody else I knew had that for a snack—I learned from my mother that one winter that was all my father’s family had for supper every evening. They had a cow for milk and excess popcorn they hadn’t sold. One result of this story: During my working years, I saved a healthy portion of my income to make sure that my children always had enough food, and we would never have to eat popcorn with milk for dinner. Second, I went to high school in the 1970s. That had a dual impact. Although my father kept his job, the news was filled with accounts of 50-year-old men getting laid off because, during that time, it seemed all the jobs were moving to Japan. I grew up knowing that no job is forever, and you may not have a chance to decide when you retire. This further reinforced my tendency toward thrift. The other big economic development in the 1970s was inflation. I’ve written about how I invest in Series I savings bonds, and it’s because I remember what double-digit inflation can do to the cost of living. The…
Read more » Missing Out
Kenyon Sayler | Mar 12, 2022
A FRIEND ASKED ME if I was buying cryptocurrencies or nonfungible tokens. When I replied that I was not, my friend asked if I was afraid that I was missing out on the investment of a lifetime. That got me thinking about three great investments where I did indeed miss out. First, in 1981, some young engineers were sitting around talking about what we should invest in. One fellow said he was going to buy a share of Berkshire Hathaway, which was then selling for about $500, equal to a week’s salary. In my wisdom, I said that the stock had performed superbly, but CEO Warren Buffett was 51-years-old and unlikely to stick around much longer. In fact, he’d probably have to retire when he turned 65, a scant 14 years hence. One share of Berkshire Hathaway (symbol: BRK-A) now costs almost $500,000, for an annual return of about 18%. Had I invested the money in an S&P 500-index fund, the price appreciation would have been about 9%. I could add a few percent to the S&P’s return to account for dividends. Still, I clearly missed out on a great stock purchase—and, unfortunately, I didn’t even invest in an S&P 500 fund. More on that later. Next up: In 1990, feeling like I’d missed one great stock picker, I chose another. I purchased Fidelity Magellan Fund. While people today pay zero trading costs, I paid Fidelity a 3% load, or commission, to invest with the great Peter Lynch. Sadly, two months after I purchased the fund, Lynch decided to retire. I never saw the great returns that Magellan had earned in its early years. Note that Lynch was only age 44 when he retired. That’s seven years younger than Buffett was when I was concerned that he would retire. My…
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Mark Crothers is a retired small business owner from the UK with a keen interest in personal finance and simple living. Married to his high school sweetheart, with daughters and grandchildren, he knows the importance of building a secure financial future. With an aversion to social media, he prefers to spend his time on his main passions: reading, scratch cooking, racket sports, and hiking.
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