FREE NEWSLETTER

The markets give—and inflation, taxes and investment costs take away. But where does that leave you?

Latest PostsAll Discussions »

Dickie and his magic beans

"Fun post. Glad you stumbled into your magic beans. When shopping for coffee to have “at home,” we’ll pay attention to prices. Since we’re always changing places, what’s available varies, as does cost (and currency). Not unusual for the first cup of the day to be instant.  But coffee out is another story. Remember the advice to skip the latte, have coffee at home and save the difference? Nope. I have coffee out all the time.  Sometimes I think if we’re ever settled I’ll learn how to do coffee better. Could be fun. But I’d still like a coffee shop too. "
- Michael1
Read more »

Sundry Memories of Mom

"Thanks for sharing your mom’s story. An impressive woman."
- Nick Politakis
Read more »

Investing Fundamentals: A Simple Guide for Beginners

"Nick, Young or old there are many people who don’t have a clue. I’m helping a neighbor who is 67, and newly retired. He was on auto pilot with his company plan and his government pension. He is one of the fortunate few who will be OK."
- W.D. Housley
Read more »

Living On Autopilot

"I sometimes look foolish, aware of ways to save money, but being too lazy to look into them. For example, I have been paying $20 a month to my ISP for a VoIP phone. Here at the retirement village, we are bringing in a new ISP, and they will be charging $40! This prompted me to investigate, and I discovered that for a setup cost of $120 I can have my VoIP landline for $7 a month. Why am I not really foolish? I am retired, but living on about 25% of my income, and saving the rest. My expenses may be foolish, but they're far from bankrupting me."
- Ormode
Read more »

Saving for Grandchildren

OUR FIRST GRANDCHILD recently arrived, which naturally has us thinking about the smartest ways to build a strong financial foundation for her future. In 2019, I wrote Take a Break, which outlined saving strategies on behalf of children. Since then, the landscape has changed with the introduction of Trump accounts and Roth-conversion pathways for 529 accounts.  Families have four tax-advantaged savings approaches on behalf of young children plus the Roth IRA option once the child has earned income – 529 education savings account, a Uniform Gift to Minor (UGM) custodial account, a Coverdell account, and the new Trump account. Each option offers a different mix of tax benefits, contribution requirements and withdrawal rules. 529 Accounts Pros
  • Tax-free growth when used for qualified education expenses
  • High gift-tax contribution limits: $19K per contributor per year (indexed)
  • New ability to convert up to $35K into a Roth IRA for the beneficiary
Cons
  • Relatively complex with penalties and taxes on non-qualified withdrawals
  • Limited, state-approved investment options
  • Risk of underutilization if the child does not pursue qualifying education
Caveats
  • Technology and AI could significantly reduce education’s cost structure in the future
  • Roth conversions are capped at $35K lifetime
  • The 529 must be open 15 years, and contributions must age 5 years before conversion
  • Conversions require the beneficiary to have earned income (i.e. they could Roth anyway)
  • Annual Roth contribution limits still apply (e.g., $7.5K in 2026), so completing the full $35K conversion would take five years
UGM Custodial Accounts Pros
  • Brokerage account where up to $2.7K of unearned income can be tax-free each year
  • High gift-tax contribution limits: $19K per contributor per year (indexed)
  • Broad investment flexibility — stocks, bonds, funds, etc.
  • Few restrictions on how funds may be used for the child’s benefit
  • Potential for low taxes on capital gains, but subject to marginal “kiddie tax” at parent’s rates until tax-independency or age 24 
Cons
  • Higher income or capital gains could trigger the kiddie tax at the parents’ marginal rate
  • Assets count as the child’s for financial-aid purposes
Caveats
  • Custodians have some ability to spend down the account for legitimate child expenses if the child is a wild-child in the later teen years
Coverdell Accounts Pros
  • Tax-free growth for qualified education expenses
  • More flexible investment choices than most 529 plans
Cons
  • Low contribution limit: $2K per year plus income limits restrict who can contribute
  • Essentially irrelevant today given the expanded options within 529 plans
Trump Accounts Pros
  • $1K government seed deposit for children born 2025–2028
  • Contribution limit of $5K per year in 2026, indexed to inflation
  • Parent employers may contribute up to $2.5K per year (also indexed)
  • Tax-deferred growth with Roth-conversion opportunities beginning at age 18
  • No earned-income requirement for Roth conversions 
  • Roth conversions are ideal in low-income years starting after age 18 once the child has transitioned to tax-independency of parents or at age 24 when “kiddie taxation” ends. Early tax independence could even be a combined Roth plus student financial-aid strategy
  • Potential to convert large account values over several years at relatively low tax rates (potentially marginal 10-12% tax-rates, but averaging less due to the standard deduction).
Cons
  • Investment options limited to low-cost indexed stock funds (not necessarily a drawback)
  • Penalty-free withdrawals must wait until age 59½, but the accounts could be advantageous even including penalties
  • Limited custodian control and intervention possibilities if the teen is a wild-child
Caveats
  • If Roth conversions are not undertaken during the child’s low-income years, a UGMA invested to capture long-term capital gains tax-rates may outperform a Trump Account taxed at ordinary income tax-rates
  • Watch this space as future adjustments or eligibility changes are possible
  In effect, the 529 is a two-decade college savings program having some complexity and withdrawal limitations; the UGM is a reasonably flexible, 18-30-year college or house downpayment savings program; and the Trump account is a somewhat inflexible, sixty-year retirement accelerator   Resulting Playbook Here is our family’s intended playbook for tax-advantaged accounts in the grandchild's name:
  • Parents’ retirement account fundings remain their top priority - 401K’s at a minimum up to the match, HSAs with their triple tax advantages, and Roths as long as eligible within income limits.
  • A Trump account has already been initiated to secure the free $1K government seed contribution – grows to potentially $2.6K at age 18 after penalties and taxes.
  • Limited 529 funding has also been initiated to start the 15-year clock for potential later Roth conversions. 
  • The family’s next priority is to fund the Trump account which starts at $5K later this year. Maximizing the Roth conversion opportunity will require ~$116K of contributions (at 3% inflation) over 18 years which we grandparents intend to help fund. I estimate the Roth converted Trump account could grow to ~$2 million of tax-free money at age 60 (6% growth) assuming early-age Roth conversions, and the Wall Street Journal projects as much as $3 million (link likely paywalled).
  • The subsequent priorities are to start UGM taxable account and 529 account contributions in parallel to perhaps initial levels of about $35K each. This may take our family some years depending upon available resources for contributions.
For the UGM account, a balance of $35K should capture a sizeable chunk of the annual $2.7K tax-free income limit by investing in high-yield income alternatives. For the 529 account, $35K aligns with the Roth conversion limit. On a personal note, we had extremely positive UGM outcomes with our children. We saved taxes for two decades, and each child used the ~$60K balance as down payments on their first house shortly after college. Due to the 529’s withdrawal rigidities and potential technology impacts, we are unlikely to fund the 529 to the max. 
  • We will skip Coverdells as the alternatives offer ample savings opportunity in the child’s name ($200K+). 
  • Depending upon spare resources available for gifting, we can always reassess future contributions. 
That’s our plan, and we’re sticking to it…. until something changes.    John Yeigh is an author, coach and youth sports advocate. His book “Win the Youth Sports Game” was published in 2021. John retired in 2017 from the oil industry, where he negotiated financial details for multi-billion-dollar international projects. Check out his earlier articles.  
Read more »

New Face, old scam

"My wife is an amateur artist and sells her paintings on her web site and Facebook. She gets contacted by scammers with similar pitches. One wanted to license one of her paintings to supposedly use the image on commercial products. My wife has a boilerplate licensing agreement she sent out and never heard anything more. The internet has made it possible for every criminal in the world to try to steal your money."
- Howard Schwartz
Read more »

Wall Street Trap

IN THE INVESTMENT world, May 1st is a notable day. It was on May 1, 1975 that the Securities and Exchange Commission deregulated the brokerage industry. For the 183 years prior to that, trading commissions on the New York Stock Exchange had been fixed at uniformly high rates. But when deregulation arrived, competition got going. That’s when discount brokers like Charles Schwab got rolling, and over time, May Day, as it’s now referred to, has delivered enormous savings to consumers. More than 50 years later, though, Wall Street still operates in ways that are often at odds with consumer interests. As an individual investor, what are the obstacles to be aware of? At the top of the list is Wall Street’s fixation with individual stocks. For almost 100 years, the data has been clear that stock-picking is counterproductive. Probably the first to uncover this was a fellow named Alfred Cowles. Cowles came from a wealthy family and wondered whether the investment advice his family had been receiving was worthwhile. He set about answering that question and in 1933, published a paper titled “Can Stock Market Forecasters Forecast?” Cowles’s conclusion: They can’t. More recently, research by finance professors Brad Barber and Terrance Odean came to a similar conclusion. The title of their most well known paper is self-explanatory: “Trading Is Hazardous to Your Wealth.”  Along the same lines, Standard & Poor’s regularly examines actively-managed mutual funds to see how many are able to outperform the overall market. The most recent finding: Over the past 10 years, fewer than 15% of funds benchmarked to the S&P 500 managed to beat the index. Research by Jeff Ptak at Morningstar has found that the more active a fund is, the worse it performs. So-called tactical funds, which shift among different asset classes in response to economic forecasts have, in Ptak’s words, “incinerated” shareholder dollars. This data is fairly well known. The problem, though, is that trading activity generates revenue for the brokerage industry, so it has an interest in keeping investors engaged with the market. That’s why brokerage analysts are on TV every day, offering their forecasts for individual stocks, for the overall market and for the broader economy. To be sure, this makes for interesting television. The problem, though, is that it’s been shown to carry almost no value. According to research by Joachim Klement, the accuracy of Wall Street prognosticators is approximately zero. Why are they so poor at forecasting? For starters, there’s the simple fact that no one has a crystal ball. No one can know what a company—or its competitors—will do a month or a year from now, and how that will translate into stock price gains or losses. Sociologist Ezra Zuckerman Sivan uncovered a more subtle explanation. In research published after the technology selloff in 2000, Sivan found that Wall Street analysts are constrained by two obstacles. The first is that they’re dependent on access to companies’ management teams to help in their research. For that reason, it’s in their interest to maintain positive relationships with the companies that they follow. Investment banks that take a positive view on a company may also be rewarded with profitable mergers or acquisitions work when the need arises. Those factors bias stock recommendations overwhelmingly in the direction of “buy” ratings. Another reason analysts tend to avoid negative comments about the companies they cover: Sivan found that there is a community effect that tends to form among the analysts assigned to a given company, and thus an incentive develops to not “rock the boat” in saying anything too critical. People generally want to get along, and that results in a sort of self-censorship. This research is well understood, and yet Wall Street continues to generate forecasts day after day, year after year. Why? There are two explanations, I believe. The first is that it’s entertaining. I’ll be the first to acknowledge that index funds aren’t terribly interesting to talk about. It’s far more interesting to talk about smartphones or AI and the companies behind them. That makes Wall Street analysts invaluable to the media, who need to fill airtime.  And as long as they’re granted that airtime, forecasters are of great value to the brokerage industry. Since trading activity is profitable for Wall Street, it’s in brokers’ interest to generate continued interest in stocks. That brings in commission dollars for brokers. And even though commissions have shrunk in recent years, brokers benefit in other ways from active trading, including the “bid-ask spread” on each trade. That’s the difference between what buyers pay and what sellers receive, and though these spreads are tiny, they add up for the brokers who collect them. For good reason, then, Wall Street continues to promote stock-picking. At the same time, the investment industry is always busy developing new funds. In the first half of last year, for example, fund companies rolled out more than 640 new funds. Among them: funds that hold single stocks with varying degrees of leverage and other seemingly unnecessary new formulations. The result: There are now many more funds than there are stocks trading on U.S. exchanges.  Many of these new funds follow ever more esoteric strategies. They’re often opaque. And almost invariably, they carry higher fees. In a 2011 study titled “The Dark Side of Financial Innovation,” finance professor Brian Henderson and a colleague looked at one popular category of fund known as a structured product. Their conclusion: These funds were overpriced to the point that their expected return was actually a bit below zero. How were they able to market such an inferior product? Henderson’s hypothesis was that the fund companies designed them to be intentionally as complex as possible in order to exploit individual investors. The bottom line: To a great degree, Wall Street is upside down. But as an individual investor, you don’t have to be. My rule of thumb: In building a portfolio, investors should do more or less the opposite of what Wall Street recommends. That, I believe, is a reliable formula for success.   Adam M. Grossman is the founder of Mayport, a fixed-fee wealth management firm. Sign up for Adam's Daily Ideas email, follow him on X @AdamMGrossman and check out his earlier articles.
Read more »

Is saving really that hard? Nope, not for the great majority of Americans. 

"Difficult requiring great discipline, yes. Impossibility, no. Simply because some people do it. Don’t focus on the $3,000, that’s an illustration. It’s the concept that is important. Many people earning double the amount claim they can’t save. An 8% return for the stock market is pretty close to the average over the last 50 years."
- R Quinn
Read more »

Ageing and the Open Road

RECENTLY I TOOK a free ride on a driverless bus trialling its proposed route, part of my local administration's ten-year rollout plan for self-driving public transport and taxis. I see real potential in this technology, and I'm hoping the infrastructure and implementation stay on schedule. That hope is mostly selfish, I'll admit. In fifteen years I'll be in my mid-seventies, and I'd love to ditch my car and rely on cheap, dependable robo-taxis instead. It would give me freedom precisely in that decade of life when driving starts to become genuinely problematic. I'm planning to change my car in 2027 for a modern hybrid, but in the back of my mind is the thought that it could be my last. If the self-driving rollout hits its targets, I can see the case for never buying another. The advantages for someone in my demographic at that stage of life would be hard to argue with. Think about what car ownership actually costs. There's the purchase price, insurance, road tax, fuel, servicing, tyres, and the occasional bill that arrives like a punch to the stomach. For most people, a car is the second most expensive thing they own after their home. In retirement, when income typically drops and budgets tighten, that ongoing drain becomes harder to justify. This is especially true when the car spends the vast majority of its time sitting on a driveway looking pretty. A robo-taxi model, where you pay only for the journeys you actually take, could represent a dramatic shift in how much personal transport really costs. The numbers, I suspect, will be compelling — with current estimates from real world operations suggesting an 80% reduction in the cost of fares being achievable. Then there's the question of independence. This is the one that matters most to me personally, and I'd imagine it resonates with anyone approaching or already in their later years. Giving up your car keys is one of those milestones that nobody really talks about, but everyone in that demographic understands. It represents a loss of spontaneity and self-sufficiency that can genuinely affect quality of life. The difference with autonomous vehicles is that surrendering the wheel doesn't have to mean surrendering the freedom. A reliable, affordable self-driving taxi available on demand restores something that previous generations simply had to go without once driving became difficult. This could be a trip to the supermarket on a weekday morning or a late evening visit to family. The safety dimension is also worth considering. Reaction times slow as we age. Night vision deteriorates. Concentration over long distances becomes harder. Most older drivers are aware of this and manage it carefully, but there comes a point for everyone where the road becomes a source of anxiety rather than freedom. Autonomous vehicles remove that calculation entirely. You get in, state your destination, and arrive, without the cognitive load of navigating, anticipating other drivers, or worrying whether your responses are still sharp enough. That peace of mind shouldn't be underestimated. There are wider social benefits too. Older people who can no longer drive are disproportionately affected by isolation. Poor rural transport links, infrequent bus services, and the general assumption that everyone has access to a car all contribute to a situation where many retired people find their world gradually shrinking. Autonomous vehicles, particularly if integrated intelligently with existing public transport, have the potential to reverse that. A robo-taxi that can be summoned by a smartphone, or even a simple voice command, could keep people connected to their communities, their families, and their routines far longer than is currently possible. There are, of course, reasons to be cautious. Technology rollouts rarely go entirely to plan. The ten-year schedule my local administration is working to is ambitious, and a lot can change in funding priorities, in public appetite, and in the regulatory environment. The early trials are promising, but promising trials and full-scale dependable infrastructure are very different things. It's worth keeping in mind, with a groan inducing pun: your mileage will vary — literally. Dense urban and suburban areas will almost certainly see reliable services first, and I'm fortunate that describes my situation. For those in more rural communities, the very people for whom isolation is already the sharpest problem, the wait could be considerably longer. I'm hopeful, but I'm not banking on it entirely. Which is why the 2027 hybrid still makes sense. It's a practical hedge, a good, modern, efficient car that will serve me well through the transition years, whatever pace that transition takes. But the fact that I'm already thinking of it as potentially my last car feels significant. A decade ago that thought wouldn't have crossed my mind. The technology has moved from science fiction to credible near-future fast enough to genuinely reshape how I'm thinking about retirement planning. If it delivers, the generation hitting their seventies in the late 2030s could be the first in history for whom ageing and mobility don't have to be in conflict. That's not a small thing. That might turn out to be one of the most personally transformative shifts of the entire autonomous vehicle revolution. It is not about the flashy early adopters or the logistics industry efficiencies. Instead, it is the simple dignity of an older person getting where they need to go, independently, on their own terms. I'm hopeful I'll be taking that ride and certain my children and grandchildren definitely will.
Mark Crothers is a retired small business owner from the UK with a keen interest in personal finance and simple living. Married to his high school sweetheart, with daughters and grandchildren, he knows the importance of building a secure financial future. With an aversion to social media, he prefers to spend his time on his main passions: reading, scratch cooking, racket sports, and hiking.
Read more »

Dickie and his magic beans

"Fun post. Glad you stumbled into your magic beans. When shopping for coffee to have “at home,” we’ll pay attention to prices. Since we’re always changing places, what’s available varies, as does cost (and currency). Not unusual for the first cup of the day to be instant.  But coffee out is another story. Remember the advice to skip the latte, have coffee at home and save the difference? Nope. I have coffee out all the time.  Sometimes I think if we’re ever settled I’ll learn how to do coffee better. Could be fun. But I’d still like a coffee shop too. "
- Michael1
Read more »

Sundry Memories of Mom

"Thanks for sharing your mom’s story. An impressive woman."
- Nick Politakis
Read more »

Investing Fundamentals: A Simple Guide for Beginners

"Nick, Young or old there are many people who don’t have a clue. I’m helping a neighbor who is 67, and newly retired. He was on auto pilot with his company plan and his government pension. He is one of the fortunate few who will be OK."
- W.D. Housley
Read more »

Living On Autopilot

"I sometimes look foolish, aware of ways to save money, but being too lazy to look into them. For example, I have been paying $20 a month to my ISP for a VoIP phone. Here at the retirement village, we are bringing in a new ISP, and they will be charging $40! This prompted me to investigate, and I discovered that for a setup cost of $120 I can have my VoIP landline for $7 a month. Why am I not really foolish? I am retired, but living on about 25% of my income, and saving the rest. My expenses may be foolish, but they're far from bankrupting me."
- Ormode
Read more »

Saving for Grandchildren

OUR FIRST GRANDCHILD recently arrived, which naturally has us thinking about the smartest ways to build a strong financial foundation for her future. In 2019, I wrote Take a Break, which outlined saving strategies on behalf of children. Since then, the landscape has changed with the introduction of Trump accounts and Roth-conversion pathways for 529 accounts.  Families have four tax-advantaged savings approaches on behalf of young children plus the Roth IRA option once the child has earned income – 529 education savings account, a Uniform Gift to Minor (UGM) custodial account, a Coverdell account, and the new Trump account. Each option offers a different mix of tax benefits, contribution requirements and withdrawal rules. 529 Accounts Pros
  • Tax-free growth when used for qualified education expenses
  • High gift-tax contribution limits: $19K per contributor per year (indexed)
  • New ability to convert up to $35K into a Roth IRA for the beneficiary
Cons
  • Relatively complex with penalties and taxes on non-qualified withdrawals
  • Limited, state-approved investment options
  • Risk of underutilization if the child does not pursue qualifying education
Caveats
  • Technology and AI could significantly reduce education’s cost structure in the future
  • Roth conversions are capped at $35K lifetime
  • The 529 must be open 15 years, and contributions must age 5 years before conversion
  • Conversions require the beneficiary to have earned income (i.e. they could Roth anyway)
  • Annual Roth contribution limits still apply (e.g., $7.5K in 2026), so completing the full $35K conversion would take five years
UGM Custodial Accounts Pros
  • Brokerage account where up to $2.7K of unearned income can be tax-free each year
  • High gift-tax contribution limits: $19K per contributor per year (indexed)
  • Broad investment flexibility — stocks, bonds, funds, etc.
  • Few restrictions on how funds may be used for the child’s benefit
  • Potential for low taxes on capital gains, but subject to marginal “kiddie tax” at parent’s rates until tax-independency or age 24 
Cons
  • Higher income or capital gains could trigger the kiddie tax at the parents’ marginal rate
  • Assets count as the child’s for financial-aid purposes
Caveats
  • Custodians have some ability to spend down the account for legitimate child expenses if the child is a wild-child in the later teen years
Coverdell Accounts Pros
  • Tax-free growth for qualified education expenses
  • More flexible investment choices than most 529 plans
Cons
  • Low contribution limit: $2K per year plus income limits restrict who can contribute
  • Essentially irrelevant today given the expanded options within 529 plans
Trump Accounts Pros
  • $1K government seed deposit for children born 2025–2028
  • Contribution limit of $5K per year in 2026, indexed to inflation
  • Parent employers may contribute up to $2.5K per year (also indexed)
  • Tax-deferred growth with Roth-conversion opportunities beginning at age 18
  • No earned-income requirement for Roth conversions 
  • Roth conversions are ideal in low-income years starting after age 18 once the child has transitioned to tax-independency of parents or at age 24 when “kiddie taxation” ends. Early tax independence could even be a combined Roth plus student financial-aid strategy
  • Potential to convert large account values over several years at relatively low tax rates (potentially marginal 10-12% tax-rates, but averaging less due to the standard deduction).
Cons
  • Investment options limited to low-cost indexed stock funds (not necessarily a drawback)
  • Penalty-free withdrawals must wait until age 59½, but the accounts could be advantageous even including penalties
  • Limited custodian control and intervention possibilities if the teen is a wild-child
Caveats
  • If Roth conversions are not undertaken during the child’s low-income years, a UGMA invested to capture long-term capital gains tax-rates may outperform a Trump Account taxed at ordinary income tax-rates
  • Watch this space as future adjustments or eligibility changes are possible
  In effect, the 529 is a two-decade college savings program having some complexity and withdrawal limitations; the UGM is a reasonably flexible, 18-30-year college or house downpayment savings program; and the Trump account is a somewhat inflexible, sixty-year retirement accelerator   Resulting Playbook Here is our family’s intended playbook for tax-advantaged accounts in the grandchild's name:
  • Parents’ retirement account fundings remain their top priority - 401K’s at a minimum up to the match, HSAs with their triple tax advantages, and Roths as long as eligible within income limits.
  • A Trump account has already been initiated to secure the free $1K government seed contribution – grows to potentially $2.6K at age 18 after penalties and taxes.
  • Limited 529 funding has also been initiated to start the 15-year clock for potential later Roth conversions. 
  • The family’s next priority is to fund the Trump account which starts at $5K later this year. Maximizing the Roth conversion opportunity will require ~$116K of contributions (at 3% inflation) over 18 years which we grandparents intend to help fund. I estimate the Roth converted Trump account could grow to ~$2 million of tax-free money at age 60 (6% growth) assuming early-age Roth conversions, and the Wall Street Journal projects as much as $3 million (link likely paywalled).
  • The subsequent priorities are to start UGM taxable account and 529 account contributions in parallel to perhaps initial levels of about $35K each. This may take our family some years depending upon available resources for contributions.
For the UGM account, a balance of $35K should capture a sizeable chunk of the annual $2.7K tax-free income limit by investing in high-yield income alternatives. For the 529 account, $35K aligns with the Roth conversion limit. On a personal note, we had extremely positive UGM outcomes with our children. We saved taxes for two decades, and each child used the ~$60K balance as down payments on their first house shortly after college. Due to the 529’s withdrawal rigidities and potential technology impacts, we are unlikely to fund the 529 to the max. 
  • We will skip Coverdells as the alternatives offer ample savings opportunity in the child’s name ($200K+). 
  • Depending upon spare resources available for gifting, we can always reassess future contributions. 
That’s our plan, and we’re sticking to it…. until something changes.    John Yeigh is an author, coach and youth sports advocate. His book “Win the Youth Sports Game” was published in 2021. John retired in 2017 from the oil industry, where he negotiated financial details for multi-billion-dollar international projects. Check out his earlier articles.  
Read more »

New Face, old scam

"My wife is an amateur artist and sells her paintings on her web site and Facebook. She gets contacted by scammers with similar pitches. One wanted to license one of her paintings to supposedly use the image on commercial products. My wife has a boilerplate licensing agreement she sent out and never heard anything more. The internet has made it possible for every criminal in the world to try to steal your money."
- Howard Schwartz
Read more »

Wall Street Trap

IN THE INVESTMENT world, May 1st is a notable day. It was on May 1, 1975 that the Securities and Exchange Commission deregulated the brokerage industry. For the 183 years prior to that, trading commissions on the New York Stock Exchange had been fixed at uniformly high rates. But when deregulation arrived, competition got going. That’s when discount brokers like Charles Schwab got rolling, and over time, May Day, as it’s now referred to, has delivered enormous savings to consumers. More than 50 years later, though, Wall Street still operates in ways that are often at odds with consumer interests. As an individual investor, what are the obstacles to be aware of? At the top of the list is Wall Street’s fixation with individual stocks. For almost 100 years, the data has been clear that stock-picking is counterproductive. Probably the first to uncover this was a fellow named Alfred Cowles. Cowles came from a wealthy family and wondered whether the investment advice his family had been receiving was worthwhile. He set about answering that question and in 1933, published a paper titled “Can Stock Market Forecasters Forecast?” Cowles’s conclusion: They can’t. More recently, research by finance professors Brad Barber and Terrance Odean came to a similar conclusion. The title of their most well known paper is self-explanatory: “Trading Is Hazardous to Your Wealth.”  Along the same lines, Standard & Poor’s regularly examines actively-managed mutual funds to see how many are able to outperform the overall market. The most recent finding: Over the past 10 years, fewer than 15% of funds benchmarked to the S&P 500 managed to beat the index. Research by Jeff Ptak at Morningstar has found that the more active a fund is, the worse it performs. So-called tactical funds, which shift among different asset classes in response to economic forecasts have, in Ptak’s words, “incinerated” shareholder dollars. This data is fairly well known. The problem, though, is that trading activity generates revenue for the brokerage industry, so it has an interest in keeping investors engaged with the market. That’s why brokerage analysts are on TV every day, offering their forecasts for individual stocks, for the overall market and for the broader economy. To be sure, this makes for interesting television. The problem, though, is that it’s been shown to carry almost no value. According to research by Joachim Klement, the accuracy of Wall Street prognosticators is approximately zero. Why are they so poor at forecasting? For starters, there’s the simple fact that no one has a crystal ball. No one can know what a company—or its competitors—will do a month or a year from now, and how that will translate into stock price gains or losses. Sociologist Ezra Zuckerman Sivan uncovered a more subtle explanation. In research published after the technology selloff in 2000, Sivan found that Wall Street analysts are constrained by two obstacles. The first is that they’re dependent on access to companies’ management teams to help in their research. For that reason, it’s in their interest to maintain positive relationships with the companies that they follow. Investment banks that take a positive view on a company may also be rewarded with profitable mergers or acquisitions work when the need arises. Those factors bias stock recommendations overwhelmingly in the direction of “buy” ratings. Another reason analysts tend to avoid negative comments about the companies they cover: Sivan found that there is a community effect that tends to form among the analysts assigned to a given company, and thus an incentive develops to not “rock the boat” in saying anything too critical. People generally want to get along, and that results in a sort of self-censorship. This research is well understood, and yet Wall Street continues to generate forecasts day after day, year after year. Why? There are two explanations, I believe. The first is that it’s entertaining. I’ll be the first to acknowledge that index funds aren’t terribly interesting to talk about. It’s far more interesting to talk about smartphones or AI and the companies behind them. That makes Wall Street analysts invaluable to the media, who need to fill airtime.  And as long as they’re granted that airtime, forecasters are of great value to the brokerage industry. Since trading activity is profitable for Wall Street, it’s in brokers’ interest to generate continued interest in stocks. That brings in commission dollars for brokers. And even though commissions have shrunk in recent years, brokers benefit in other ways from active trading, including the “bid-ask spread” on each trade. That’s the difference between what buyers pay and what sellers receive, and though these spreads are tiny, they add up for the brokers who collect them. For good reason, then, Wall Street continues to promote stock-picking. At the same time, the investment industry is always busy developing new funds. In the first half of last year, for example, fund companies rolled out more than 640 new funds. Among them: funds that hold single stocks with varying degrees of leverage and other seemingly unnecessary new formulations. The result: There are now many more funds than there are stocks trading on U.S. exchanges.  Many of these new funds follow ever more esoteric strategies. They’re often opaque. And almost invariably, they carry higher fees. In a 2011 study titled “The Dark Side of Financial Innovation,” finance professor Brian Henderson and a colleague looked at one popular category of fund known as a structured product. Their conclusion: These funds were overpriced to the point that their expected return was actually a bit below zero. How were they able to market such an inferior product? Henderson’s hypothesis was that the fund companies designed them to be intentionally as complex as possible in order to exploit individual investors. The bottom line: To a great degree, Wall Street is upside down. But as an individual investor, you don’t have to be. My rule of thumb: In building a portfolio, investors should do more or less the opposite of what Wall Street recommends. That, I believe, is a reliable formula for success.   Adam M. Grossman is the founder of Mayport, a fixed-fee wealth management firm. Sign up for Adam's Daily Ideas email, follow him on X @AdamMGrossman and check out his earlier articles.
Read more »

Free Newsletter

Get Educated

Manifesto

NO. 40: WE SHOULD all know the minimum dollar amount we need each month to keep our financial life afloat. This will drive our emergency fund’s size and our cash holdings once we’re retired.

think

EXPECTATIONS. Investment losses are most distressing when they’re least expected. For instance, many investors expect their stock portfolios to fall occasionally by 20% or more. But they’d be horrified if their money-market mutual fund—which they consider a haven of safety—“broke the buck” and slipped 1% from the standard $1 share price to 99 cents.

act

INVESTIGATE a reverse mortgage. Once you're retired, borrowing against your home’s value shouldn’t be a first choice, but a last resort. Still, it’s helpful—and comforting—to know what that last resort might be worth. To that end, try playing with a reverse mortgage calculator. Pay attention to the money you’ll receive—and to the hefty fees you will incur.

Truths

NO. 111: WALL STREET tries never to send us a bill, so we’re unaware of how much we’re paying. Fund expenses and financial advisor fees are quietly subtracted throughout the year. Stock trading spreads and bond markups are built into security prices. Load mutual fund commissions are swiped from our initial investment or they're deducted when we sell.

Our favorite investment: index funds

Manifesto

NO. 40: WE SHOULD all know the minimum dollar amount we need each month to keep our financial life afloat. This will drive our emergency fund’s size and our cash holdings once we’re retired.

Spotlight: Health

Medicare Advantage with No Premiums vs Traditional Medicare with a Plan G Supplement

This is a decision I had to make several years ago when I turned 65. I started out with a no premium five star local Advantage plan to take “advantage” of the free perks for the first year, then switched to traditional Medicare with a plan G supplement, the most expensive plan. To most this would seem quite contradictory, but let me explain my reasoning. Medicare allows first time enrollees to trial an Advantage plan for up to a year,

Read more »

Prefer the Original

MEDICARE GETS A LOT of criticism these days. Some view it as socialized medicine. Others fret over the hospital trust fund, which covers Medicare Part A and is expected to run out of money by 2036.
Meanwhile, some policymakers want to cut back on traditional Medicare and promote privatization through Medicare Advantage plans, otherwise known as Part C. That reflects the philosophy that health care costs, access and quality will be improved if we obtain health care as we do other goods,

Read more »

Rats!!

Back in the 1960s I processed health insurance claims. Employees came to me with their receipts and I helped them put a claim together and then submit it for payment. 
One day an employee presented a receipt from a hardware store- for rat poison. I thought it was a mistake or a joke. I almost laughed. However, he was quite serious. Rat poison is a blood thinner and it was prescribed by his doctor. Unfortunately, it wasn’t eligible for reimbursement. 

Read more »

Can’t Figure Out This Darned Insomnia

I woke up this morning at 4, wide awake and couldn’t sleep. I laid there reading google news on my phone. Finally I got out of bed and made it out into the living room. It was pitch black outside, yet my path through the house was well illuminated by little, mostly blue lights. About 30 of them. Smoke and carbon monoxide detectors, routers, scanners, label maker, alarm clocks, microwave, coffee maker, toaster oven, range, bathroom nightlights,

Read more »

Why US Healthcare is so Expensive.

This morning I found this very good summary of this issue on USA Today.
Check out this article from USA TODAY:
Seven reasons why Americans pay more for health care than any other nation
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2024/12/15/why-americans-pay-more-for-health-care/76900978007/

Read more »

Three Points to Avoid Injuries

Three Points
It’s a simple lesson I learned when I piloted an 18 wheeler in order to make ends meet while getting my business up and running. If you ever stood next to semi-trailer truck you would have noticed that the last step into or out of the tractor is a doozy. I wouldn’t be surprised to learn that HD’s resident physical therapist Ed Marsh treated a few injuries that occurred when a driver fell getting out of his truck.

Read more »

Spotlight: Connor

Missing That Paycheck

THE LONGER I SPEND in retirement, the more convinced I am of the benefit of reliable income. One of retirement’s most pronounced psychological shocks is the loss of a regular paycheck. After four decades of working, you get used to one coming in every two weeks. The occasional consulting paycheck, even a small one, makes me inordinately happy. I’m fortunate to have a traditional defined-benefit pension. It built up over 31 years of working with a large aerospace engineering firm. Unfortunately, the plan was frozen three years before I stopped working. Those last three years would have added almost $1,000 a month to my pension. And, as with almost all private-sector pensions, the payment I receive has no annual cost-of-living adjustment. My wife earned a small pension while working for a local hospital in the 1990s. About 15 years ago, she received notice that the system was offering a lump sum payout to former employees. It amounted to about $30,000. Knowing that I had a pension, we opted for the lump sum and rolled the money into her IRA. In January 2023, we started my wife’s Social Security retirement benefit. We still plan to delay my benefit until I reach age 70. This is the claiming strategy for couples favored by many financial planners—the lower lifetime earner claims early, while the higher earner delays, thus ensuring the maximum survivor benefit. The advantages are also clearly demonstrated by Mike Piper’s Open Social Security tool. Another reason I delayed benefits: I still had opportunities to consult. Prior to reaching your full Social Security retirement age (FRA) of 66 or 67, you can both collect Social Security and have earned income, but your benefit may be reduced. In 2024, retirees can start losing benefits once they earn $22,320. If my 2023 income had…
Read more »

Bonding for Life

WHEN MY WIFE AND I were young, it was common to receive savings bonds for major events, such as birthdays and religious celebrations. We carried on the tradition with our two sons and we’re planning to do the same for our grandchildren. With our sons, we bought savings bonds to mark significant childhood milestones. We held on to those paper bonds for many years, and gave them to our sons when they graduated college. They appreciated the significant sum and used the money to help fund the transition from college to the working world. But one bond they each received was unexpected—and extremely meaningful. The story begins in summer 2004. My mother, who lived with us, was diagnosed with B-cell lymphoma. At first, brain surgery and aggressive chemotherapy seemed to cure her. But weeks after her last chemo treatment, the cancer came back and ravaged her brain. By December, it was clear there were no treatment options, and she chose to go on hospice care at our home. My mom was especially sad about losing the opportunity to see her nine grandchildren grow up. They spanned a wide range of ages, and she had a special relationship with each of them. At the time, our oldest son was a senior in college, and she lamented that she wouldn’t see him graduate. That reminded my wife and me of something my wife’s grandmother had done. She bought savings bonds for her great-grandchildren to commemorate religious milestones that would come later in their life. My mother-in-law held on to the bonds that her mother had bought, and then gave them with a card to each great-grandchild as the milestones occurred, which was often long after their great-grandmother had died. It was a nice way to connect them with a beloved family member.…
Read more »

Running the Numbers

THE HOLIDAY SEASON is upon us. Our thoughts—or mine at least—turn to family, friends, wine, decorations, gifts, wine, food, fun and wine. But before I ring in the new year, I have a few financial questions I need to resolve. Our 2022 income hasn’t been what I expected. I earn consulting income in two ways. I’m a part-time employee of a small engineering consulting firm. In this role, I’m an hourly employee with no benefits. I get a paycheck with federal, state and Social Security payroll taxes withheld. At the end of the year, I receive a W-2 tax form from my employer. This year, the work I expected hasn’t materialized and, to date, I’ve earned just $850. I also own a small business—a sole proprietor LLC. I use this for direct consulting to several small businesses. I invoice customers and receive a check based on an hourly rate and how much time I put in. At the end of the year, I’m sent a 1099-NEC form by the companies I’ve worked for. The primary project I expected to support this year seems to have been delayed until 2023, so I’ve earned a mere $280. As you can see, it hasn’t been a lucrative year for my consulting. That’s okay. We don’t count on me collecting a specific amount of earned income. Anything I make is nice, but it isn’t necessary. The previous two years were better, but not greatly so. The pandemic limited both my consulting opportunities and my willingness to travel. To handle the variations in the income collected by my wife and me, I developed a spreadsheet that tracks our income, tax withholding and expected tax bills. I update it as things change. I found this necessary because, as a business owner, I’m required to pay quarterly…
Read more »

Aging in Place

PREPARING FOR infirmity is one of the most important—and least popular—parts of financial planning. A neighbor’s recent stroke provides a stark example of this challenge. He's in his mid-80s and has some underlying health problems. Our neighbor lives in a second-story condominium, with external stairs as access. The stairs end at a narrow deck, with a right-hand turn into the home. An overhang blocks the screen door from opening fully. When he had a stroke, the emergency medical technicians (EMTs) had to take off the screen door to get the stretcher out. In addition to the restricted access, his home’s interior is not set up for an infirm octogenarian. The bathrooms are small, and the hallways and doorways are narrow. Someone in a wheelchair, or using a walker, would struggle with basic daily activities. The vast majority of homes in our town aren’t designed for people with disabilities. My parents lived with us for the last decade of their lives, and we needed to make modifications to our home to accommodate them. My father had heart and lung diseases, the result of 40 years of smoking. In his last years, he used a walker and was on oxygen. We installed safety bars in the bathrooms, and a stairlift to help him reach the second-floor bedrooms. My mother experienced a rapid decline due to a brain tumor from B-cell lymphoma. The tumor shut down the left side of her body. She went from walking normally to a walker to a wheelchair in about three months. Her illness was five years after my father died, and we had removed the stairlift. We quickly had it put back in. We also built a large deck and ramp off the front door, and removed the doors to her bathroom. Eventually, we had a hospital…
Read more »

Working the Numbers

THIS YEAR’S TAX DAY was the strangest I can remember. Amid the pandemic, the filing deadline had been pushed back to July 15, three months later than usual. And for me, it was our most complicated tax year ever. I had both retirement income and income from various in-state and out-of-state consulting gigs. But the biggest complication stemmed from last year’s sale of our second home. This was a vacation home that we rented part-time and also used ourselves. The year you sell such a house brings special tax considerations. You can recapture losses that weren’t allowed in previous years. But you also have to recapture depreciation previously used. You have to break down the realized capital gain into personal and business portions. The business portion is further broken down into land and building, because you can depreciate buildings but not land. And that’s just federal taxes. Pennsylvania, where I live, treats it as a straight capital gain. I was happy I had three extra months to research all of this. We fought our way through these complications, got our taxes filed and tax bills paid—and I furthered my financial education. In fact, I’d encourage everyone to take a little time to review their tax return and see what they can learn. Here are five of my favorite questions to ask: 1. What’s your income? For tax purposes, there are multiple definitions of income, including adjusted gross income (AGI) and taxable income. AGI is your gross income minus so-called above-the-line deductions. It includes both earned and unearned income. This is the starting point for calculating your tax bill. AGI is also the key to determining your eligibility for various deductions and credits. Meanwhile, your taxable income is the income used to calculate how much tax you owe. It starts with your…
Read more »

Don’t Leave a Mess

I’VE BEEN INVOLVED in settling five estates. They ranged from insolvent to almost seven figures. Some were well-organized, but one took significant time and effort to settle. These experiences taught me a key lesson: An organized and easily understood estate is a gift to those you leave behind. I’m not an estate planning attorney. I’ve dealt with a few and found them to be professional, empathetic and helpful. If you have a complicated financial life or family situation, I highly recommend finding a good one. For most of us, however, an estate plan can be fairly simple and shouldn’t involve large legal costs. Here’s a list of seven must-haves: 1. A will. This important set of instructions directs who inherits assets that you own individually but with no beneficiary listed. A will also designates a guardian for minors and appoints an executor to administer your estate after your death. You’ll want to keep the signed original in a secure place, known to your family or your executor. 2. Powers of attorney. You’ll need two types of power of attorney, or POA—one financial, the other medical. The financial POA names someone you trust to help manage your financial affairs. You can control the timing of when it goes into effect and when it lapses. You also need a durable power of attorney for health care. This POA appoints someone to make medical decisions for you, if you can’t make them yourself. You should discuss both these documents with the people you’re assigning, so they understand your wishes. Both documents no longer have any legal standing upon your death. 3. Beneficiaries named. If you have a beneficiary listed on an asset, that almost always trumps what your will says, so the asset goes directly to the beneficiary and doesn’t go through probate.…
Read more »