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Released:
A SUMMARY OF THE 2025 ANNUAL REPORTS
Social Security and Medicare Boards of Trustees
“Based on our best estimates, this year’s reports show that……
The Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) Trust Fund will be able to pay 100 percent of total scheduled benefits until 2033, unchanged from last year’s report. At that time, the fund’s reserves will become depleted and continuing program income will be sufficient to pay 77 percent of total scheduled benefits……”
“As in prior years, we found that the Social Security and Medicare programs both continue to face significant financing issues.
The non-health-specific intermediate (best estimate) assumptions for these reports were set in December 2024. The Trustees will continue to monitor developments, reevaluate the assumptions, and modify the projections in later reports.”
For more information go to the SS website:
https://www.ssa.gov/oact/trsum/
An article in today’s newspaper — yes, the print variety — quotes a report from the programs’ trustees released June 18 that says the Medicare hospital insurance trust fund (part A) will have insufficient funds in 2033 and the Social Security trust fund will be unable to pay full benefits beginning in 2034, instead of the prior estimate of 2035. The article says SS would then be able to pay 81% of benefits.
So, this update about half a year later, provides only a slightly different picture. The one thing that remains consistent is that lawmakers continue to defer any type of corrective action.
If Medicare is forced to again cut payments to hospitals to keep the Part A trust solvent, you will see real chaos.
All this because Congress doesn’t want to tell the truth – which is taxes to fund these programs are insufficient and/or benefits are not affordable for what people think they should have to pay.
There are still people who insist Congress or a president stole the SS trust funds and many who believe they paid for their own benefits. Others who say undocumented immigrants are collecting benefits and draining the trusts when the truth is they are helping to fund the trusts, but not eligible for benefits.
The real truth has a second part; the number of working and paying those taxes declines each year. We’re called the “Baby Boomers” for a reason.
That is a factor, but the SS Trustees have warned Congress and urged action sooner than later for the last ten years. While there have been a couple of proposals no administration or member of Congress has pushed the issue or championed the changes needed.
As I have said before. A combination of relatively minor changes will fix the problem without destroying the fundamental structure of the system. Those changes should affect all current workers and most current beneficiaries because the changes should have occurred many years ago and on a regular basis.
Norman, thanks for posting this and the link. It reminded me to go out and read it. A couple of the year-over-year changes struck me.
The Trustees extended by 10 years the assumed period of recov-ery from the historically low fertility rates, reaching the ultimate rate in 2050, compared to 2040 in last year’s report. This change more than offset some favorable demographic revisions.
This seems like a big change in one year.
Based on recent data, the long-range ratio of labor compensation to GDP is assumed to be lower than had been assumed in last year’s report.
It would be interesting to see more information on this – is it AI, shifting of labor income to other forms not subject to Payroll Tax??