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What Could Possibly Go Wrong?

“U.S. Stocks Are Now Pricier Than They Were in the Dot-Com Era
The S&P 500 has never been this expensive, or more concentrated in fewer companies” – WSJ 9/1/2025

Edited 9/2/2025 per Morningstar:   Morningstar US Market Index +10.90%  since June 1, 2025!  Tech stocks +16.1% over the same period.

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Summary 200 Day Simple Moving Average:

  • As of today (September 1, 2025), SPX index 200-day simple moving average is 5959.47, with the most recent change of +2.32 (+0.04%) on August 29, 2025.
  • Over the past year, SPX index 200-day SMA has increased by +837.72 (+16.36%).
  • SPX index 200-day SMA is now at all-time high.

Furthermore, all of the components of Faber’s ‘Ivy-5’ portfolio are above their 10-month Simple Moving Average.

 

 

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Kenneth Tobin
1 year ago

My philosophy in retirement is to have a portfolio that allows me to sleep well
Of course you need to understand SORR. ask yourself at retirement if you could afford a 50% equity loss and maintain lifestyle. That has happened twice this century. Just be a well educated investor and use index funds as that’s the 50yr proven method superior to any other methodology

Mark Crothers
1 year ago

I know with 100% certainty that there will be a deep and lengthy drawdown. I just don’t know when, and neither does anyone else. Therefore, you should plan accordingly from the day you start decumulating. As Warren Buffet said “The only value of stock forecasters is to make fortune-tellers look good”

mytimetotravel
1 year ago
Reply to  normr60189

You already said that.