Adam, your last sentence is ominous. With the recent changes in regulations seemingly opening the door to investments in PE from retirement accounts, this may affect a portion of retirement investors who may catch the tail end of a long run of PE returns.
Enjoyed this, but TBH seems overly complicated, with no convincing evidence that a 'perfect portfolio,' with this added complexity, will beat either a 3-fund or Boglehead portfolio. The part about varying time horizons is intriguing though, and I think that's a novel way to look at things.
The consequence of cuts to SS are losses at the voting booth for whichever party is suicidal enough to allow that to occur, hence I don't see it happening. Just another debt to kick down the road.
I understand this concept and strongly agree there's an element of behavioral economics that we still don't fully appreciate. Tangentially related to a new post by Adam, where he references something that Jon (RIP) had written about previously, the benefit of enjoying a 'run up' to delayed gratification (example given was planning a vacation well in advance to enjoy the anticipation). Back to the mortgage. Like many people, my mortgage payment was an automated thing, the amount was paid out each month and thus after a time I never really thought about it. It wasn't until one day I received a nondescript one page letter from my bank, saying that the mortgage was paid in full and thanking me for my patronage. Funnier still was that the letter itself was printed on what must have been the last gasps of the toner cartridge, as if the bank knowingly knew their income stream had ended, and wanted to not spend even new ink on an old loan!
As someone who splits the difference age-wise between Richard and the subjects of the NYT article, I probably lean more towards Richard's take on the subject of affordability, but having three children starting out in the workforce, I also can see how their perspective on saving and purchasing is shaped by the current economic and social climate. Despite making more on an absolute value when compared to me (and almost certainly Richard), I think not only have expenses increased commensurately, but the idea of access and opportunity seem more constrained than in the past. The "work hard and save for a downpayment on a home" seems a further, sometimes even improbable, reach than in the past, even compared to where I was a generation ago. This seems to me more than just a perception, so until I see data otherwise I'm willing to give the perception credence. But we deal with the cards we're given, when we're dealt them, so not a ton of value I can see in looking fondly back as the past in this instance (otherwise I'd be crying over interest rates!). In my case I'm working towards helping my kids out when it comes to first mortgages, educational expenses, etc., relative big ticket items where a boost may be enough to get them on a path of forward momentum.
Jon, you've earned the right to do whatever the heck you want to, including nothing at all. Best of all, you need not decide in advance, do whatever the spirit moves you towards. Thanks for your many years of contributions to this group, and I hope you're able to be as comfortable as possible.
Great post Adam, and I hope (and in most ways agree) you are correct. That doesn't negate that there will be some displacement, as workers will need to train, and retrain, in new skills, and in that process there will be those who for whatever reason are not able to make that transition. My concern in this case is that the pace of change may be far faster than anything we've seen before, and while I fully expect society will roll with the changes, it may be a much bumpier ride than ever before.
Inflation in the area of 4% (3.9% to be exact)
Unemployment 5.2% (I hope it's only that)
Yes, by definition a recession, but those in power will take to the airwaves to claim that the old definitions don't hold true this time, and we should trust them.
Perhaps glass half full, but the S&P and NASDAQ are largely stagnant through the remainder of the year (I hope that's as bad as it gets)
Foreign stocks will NOT outperform US. Exception may be China, otherwise this is self-inflicted mutually assured financial destruction.
Value? No.
Treasury yield. By end of year 5% in an attempt to shift sentiments. My guess is like everyone else, a guess. Perhaps even too optimistic.
Agreed. A bit unfortunate that there doesn't seem a wealth (no pun intended) of objective, trustworthy, and reliable advice about getting and staying healthy that isn't a cover for someone else's snake oil or paid influencer scheme. And I greatly worry that the current US climate is such that the door to those charlatans has been opened wide, with no legitimate arbiter of truth to present a (relatively) non-biased counterpoint.
I think the non-monetary considerations impacting inheritance and legacy greatly overwhelm the effects of the money itself. I suppose it's somewhat natural for parents to want to have some influence on their children's lives. This is most obvious when they're young kids, but although there are legal definitions of adulthood they don't tend to apply to inheritance issues, therefore the existence of trusts and such. But ultimately most children grow to simply model the behaviors and tendencies of the adults around them, and in some cases it is not their parents, but instead proxies that take the place of adult role models, some good, some less ideal. For example, growing up in a household where wealth was obtained by hard work, good choices, and a bit of good fortune might imprint on the next generation something different than ones raised by a variety of paid proxies and the like. I suspect it's easier for the former to better manage an inheritance, as is can often essentially be, "business as usual," vs a windfall meant to be spent expeditiously. In either case, from the perspective of parents, there probably is a time where one needs to "let go," and maybe from beyond the grave is that time.
Comments
Adam, your last sentence is ominous. With the recent changes in regulations seemingly opening the door to investments in PE from retirement accounts, this may affect a portion of retirement investors who may catch the tail end of a long run of PE returns.
Post: Endowment Lessons
Link to comment from February 21, 2026
Enjoyed this, but TBH seems overly complicated, with no convincing evidence that a 'perfect portfolio,' with this added complexity, will beat either a 3-fund or Boglehead portfolio. The part about varying time horizons is intriguing though, and I think that's a novel way to look at things.
Post: Perfect Portfolio
Link to comment from February 7, 2026
The consequence of cuts to SS are losses at the voting booth for whichever party is suicidal enough to allow that to occur, hence I don't see it happening. Just another debt to kick down the road.
Post: Social Security is not going bankrupt, but that is not the full story
Link to comment from January 24, 2026
I understand this concept and strongly agree there's an element of behavioral economics that we still don't fully appreciate. Tangentially related to a new post by Adam, where he references something that Jon (RIP) had written about previously, the benefit of enjoying a 'run up' to delayed gratification (example given was planning a vacation well in advance to enjoy the anticipation). Back to the mortgage. Like many people, my mortgage payment was an automated thing, the amount was paid out each month and thus after a time I never really thought about it. It wasn't until one day I received a nondescript one page letter from my bank, saying that the mortgage was paid in full and thanking me for my patronage. Funnier still was that the letter itself was printed on what must have been the last gasps of the toner cartridge, as if the bank knowingly knew their income stream had ended, and wanted to not spend even new ink on an old loan!
Post: The $8,000 Cost of Peace of Mind
Link to comment from January 24, 2026
As someone who splits the difference age-wise between Richard and the subjects of the NYT article, I probably lean more towards Richard's take on the subject of affordability, but having three children starting out in the workforce, I also can see how their perspective on saving and purchasing is shaped by the current economic and social climate. Despite making more on an absolute value when compared to me (and almost certainly Richard), I think not only have expenses increased commensurately, but the idea of access and opportunity seem more constrained than in the past. The "work hard and save for a downpayment on a home" seems a further, sometimes even improbable, reach than in the past, even compared to where I was a generation ago. This seems to me more than just a perception, so until I see data otherwise I'm willing to give the perception credence. But we deal with the cards we're given, when we're dealt them, so not a ton of value I can see in looking fondly back as the past in this instance (otherwise I'd be crying over interest rates!). In my case I'm working towards helping my kids out when it comes to first mortgages, educational expenses, etc., relative big ticket items where a boost may be enough to get them on a path of forward momentum.
Post: The impossibility of defining needs.
Link to comment from January 7, 2026
Jon, you've earned the right to do whatever the heck you want to, including nothing at all. Best of all, you need not decide in advance, do whatever the spirit moves you towards. Thanks for your many years of contributions to this group, and I hope you're able to be as comfortable as possible.
Post: Extra Innings
Link to comment from July 11, 2025
Great post Adam, and I hope (and in most ways agree) you are correct. That doesn't negate that there will be some displacement, as workers will need to train, and retrain, in new skills, and in that process there will be those who for whatever reason are not able to make that transition. My concern in this case is that the pace of change may be far faster than anything we've seen before, and while I fully expect society will roll with the changes, it may be a much bumpier ride than ever before.
Post: The Jevons Paradox
Link to comment from June 30, 2025
Inflation in the area of 4% (3.9% to be exact) Unemployment 5.2% (I hope it's only that) Yes, by definition a recession, but those in power will take to the airwaves to claim that the old definitions don't hold true this time, and we should trust them. Perhaps glass half full, but the S&P and NASDAQ are largely stagnant through the remainder of the year (I hope that's as bad as it gets) Foreign stocks will NOT outperform US. Exception may be China, otherwise this is self-inflicted mutually assured financial destruction. Value? No. Treasury yield. By end of year 5% in an attempt to shift sentiments. My guess is like everyone else, a guess. Perhaps even too optimistic.
Post: How’s Your Crystal Ball?
Link to comment from April 5, 2025
Agreed. A bit unfortunate that there doesn't seem a wealth (no pun intended) of objective, trustworthy, and reliable advice about getting and staying healthy that isn't a cover for someone else's snake oil or paid influencer scheme. And I greatly worry that the current US climate is such that the door to those charlatans has been opened wide, with no legitimate arbiter of truth to present a (relatively) non-biased counterpoint.
Post: I don’t feel comfortable being “wealthy”
Link to comment from April 5, 2025
I think the non-monetary considerations impacting inheritance and legacy greatly overwhelm the effects of the money itself. I suppose it's somewhat natural for parents to want to have some influence on their children's lives. This is most obvious when they're young kids, but although there are legal definitions of adulthood they don't tend to apply to inheritance issues, therefore the existence of trusts and such. But ultimately most children grow to simply model the behaviors and tendencies of the adults around them, and in some cases it is not their parents, but instead proxies that take the place of adult role models, some good, some less ideal. For example, growing up in a household where wealth was obtained by hard work, good choices, and a bit of good fortune might imprint on the next generation something different than ones raised by a variety of paid proxies and the like. I suspect it's easier for the former to better manage an inheritance, as is can often essentially be, "business as usual," vs a windfall meant to be spent expeditiously. In either case, from the perspective of parents, there probably is a time where one needs to "let go," and maybe from beyond the grave is that time.
Post: Giving Advice
Link to comment from April 5, 2025