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Farrell Behavior

The 2008 financial crisis and the Great Recession were unsettling. People lost jobs, homes, and a good chunk of their nest eggs. The S&P 500 saw an almost 40% drop in 2008 alone.

The 24-hour news cycle and social media offered up plenty of data, advice, and stories of sheer panic. And the messengers we listened to likely affected our reaction to the market’s decline—as well as our longer-term financial prospects.

I started thinking about how the likes of John Bogle and Jonathan Clements helped me develop a thick skin for market gyrations and the things we can’t control.

They were calm, thoughtful mentors whose writing helped me take a long view in times of uncertainty. This perspective enabled me to remain in the market and to continue contributing to it as it crashed, reaping gains over the years to come.

Writing about behavioral economics for MarketWatch.com, Paul B. Farrell brought a very different style to the table during and after 2008. He rambled. He pontificated. He raged against the machine and seemed mad as hell, like Peter Finch’s Howard Beale in the movie “Network.”

Farrell’s colorful MarketWatch headlines included “‘Good News’ About Living in Peace on a Dying Planet” and “Frankenstein Capitalism is Sucking the Life from America’s Soul.”

The casual reader might see an over-the-top permabear warning of impending doom. Someone worth reading more for spectacle than for helpful financial wisdom. Indeed, some reader comments questioned his sanity and if his articles even belonged on a financial website.

From my side of the computer screen, I suspected there was method in Mr. Farrell’s seeming madness. This same prophet of gloom would also sneak in a perfectly thoughtful column about simple, well-diversified “lazy portfolios” or an all-index approach.

I don’t know for sure, but I suspect he was drawing a line between what we can’t rationally control (Wall Street elites) and what we can (our own behaviors). This is where his message becomes helpful.

If we stop trying to outmaneuver all market threats, we might be less likely to time the market, err on the side of trading, and lose money in the process.

Despite the bluster, then, Farrell was leading his readers to much the same place that Bogle and Clements were. Know yourself. Build an automated plan. Keep it low cost and well diversified. Leave it be. Find peace. Now those are wise thoughts to keep in mind as the market sits near its all-time high.

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William Dorner
4 months ago

Excellent article. Yes, downturns time to watch and buy, uptrends time to sell. Patience, lucky for me I learned this early on, and in one 3 year downturn my portfolio was down 45%, but have no fear, just hold on to your seat, have patience and the market after that was 15 years of up, and only one down. Patience and Discipline, you just watch during a DOWN market.

DavidHLancaster
3 months ago
Reply to  William Dorner

William,

It’s ironic that you posted this. Just yesterday my daughter texted me a picture of her returns from her Acorns account which is about 67.%.

I mentioned to her how our Vanguard account has more return money in it than what we contributed. I also told her that exactly 10 years ago we were in the red a few hundred dollars. Her reply was you never want to see that.

I saw her comment as an excellent teaching moment. My reply was true, but the key was I didn’t panic and kept investing and look at where it is now. I also reinforced with her that the in the short term the markets go up and down, but in the long run it has been up.

Last edited 3 months ago by DavidHLancaster
Tim Mueller
4 months ago

After retiring I read several investment books (books I should have read years earlier). In one of them, I can’t remember which, it said that over the course of a year the average stock or fund can have its price drop up to 50%, but then have that drop reversed within the same year.

It just happened to me. I almost baled out, but then changed my mind, and now the price is back up and even a little higher. If I hadn’t been looking at the price everyday I wouldn’t have even known it had happened.

It pays to leave things alone.

Last edited 4 months ago by Tim Mueller