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FIXING SOCIAL SECURITY IS NOT THAT HARD, HERE’S HOW

"For those wondering, here are the relative contributions of Dick's choices. I'm not sure why the Total below does not equal the sum of the percentages, but it is listed just as it appears on the CRFB site. I think it exceeds 100% to build the reserve needed to actuarially accrue the amount necessary to fund future benefits beyond the 75th year. Feel free to correct my misunderstanding(s). Summary: Congratulations! Under your plan Social Security will be sustainably solvent for the next 75 years and beyond. Your Policy Selections/% of gap closed
  • Cap COLAs for Top Half of Beneficiaries/25%
  • Increase Payroll Tax by 2%/52%
  • Eliminate Tax Max with Benefit Credit for Additional Payments/50%
  • Apply Payroll Tax to Employer Health Insurance Contributions/23%
Total: 148% In 2050, your plan would reduce total scheduled benefits by 3% and increase payable benefits by 25%. Your plan would increase taxes by 43%."
- Dan Malone
Read more »

What’s in your portfolio ?

"I was going to say the same, but I will add for someone who has no interest in managing money a Vanguard personal advisor with their low fee would be worth every penny, and you would have to assume they would continue on a similar path as to what you are doing now. My wife has been told that the first monetary move after I die is to call Vanguard and set this up."
- DavidHLancaster
Read more »

Gold and Diamonds

"Mark, another great piece - thanks. Two thoughts. Firstly, my wife has a very simple wedding ring that she likes. No idea how many karats of anything might be involved. But Cindy likes it, and that's all that matters. I didn't get a wedding ring, as I have never worn any jewelry. Cindy and I agreed that it was pointless to purchase something that I wouldn't wear. Secondly, I think your article makes a really nice point about gold, diamonds, Bitcoin and a range of other non-productive assets. There is no sensible methodology to determine what the fair value of any of these speculative assets should be. As many other comments have noted, investing in income-producing assets just makes a lot more sense to me."
- greg_j_tomamichel
Read more »

Can one “core” total bond ETF replace the complexity of your bond holdings?

"I like simplicity as well, and your current approach is more complexity than I need. I also don’t care to monitor my funds’ underlying holdings too closely. Our largest bond holding is Fidelity Total Bond (a core plus fund, FTBFX and FBND) followed by Fidelity Inflation Protected Bond Index (FIPDX). Both are gold-rated by Morningstar. These are both intermediate duration and so there’s interest rate risk to consider. We also hold a significant amount of cash in a 401(k) stable value fund.  You ask three questions, one in the title and two more at the end of the text: “Can one “core” total bond ETF replace the complexity of your bond holdings?” Probably not just one. I’m not aware of a total bond fund that owns TIPS for example. “If you want the simplicity of owning only one bond ETF rather than actual bonds or multiple bond ETFs that yield more than the index, what should you consider?” A good core plus fund can do this for you. Yes, they take on some other risks to do so, but so do the multiple ETFs you’re holding. “Can you have low risk and high return with one bond ETF?” As others have said with more words, no. "
- Michael1
Read more »

A Sunday Thought About Money

"Love this reflection, Mark. Every couple of weeks, when the weather is nice, I will take a seat on my top deck around 11pm with a small snifter of brandy for a session of wonder and gratitude. I look across the Sound at the lights of downtown Seattle and watch the distant airliners taking off from the airport, idly wondering where they're going at that late hour. It's a home and a view I never dreamed of affording when I was younger and broke and scrambling for underpaid jobs. Behind and below me sleeps a loving family I never expected that came to me rather late in life. Wife, Mama, sister-in-law are safe and comfortable because I can take care of them. I'm alive, remarkably, because of a medical breakthrough a decade ago that landed just when I needed it -- and for which I could afford to cover what insurance did not. I'm not wealthy by any means, but I never again have to worry about paying the bills, which is wealth in my book. And I truly don't know how it all happened. I can't figure out how I got this lucky. So with each sip of brandy I'm flooded with appreciation for being here to enjoy a simple life that is beyond what I ever aspired to have."
- Mike Gaynes
Read more »

The Market’s Unpredictability

EARLIER THIS SPRING, Emil Verner, an economist at MIT, made an observation: The stock market, he said, seemed to be exhibiting “excess tranquility.” Despite an ongoing war, inflation and other negative headlines, investors seemed surprisingly unfazed. The market was on track for its fourth year in a row of positive returns. Through May, it had gained 11%. But no sooner did Verner make this observation that the market did begin to wobble. Last Friday, the Nasdaq index dropped more than 4%, and several individual stocks sank more than 10%. How can we make sense of this—that, despite the headlines, the market was so resilient for so many months, but then reversed course so suddenly? Looking at this question can help us better understand the nature of the stock market and why its movements often seem so illogical. We can start by looking at the period prior to last Friday’s decline. Despite the ongoing war and resulting inflation, the market had risen steadily throughout April and May. Why? Three factors likely contributed. First, and probably most importantly: While the war with Iran caused gasoline prices to jump, the impact on the overall economy has been more muted than most people expected. Despite the negative impact on commodity prices and interest rates, corporate America has been doing well. Among companies that reported earnings in the first quarter of this year, 85% beat expectations. For reference, over the past 10 years, approximately 76% of companies typically beat estimates. So corporate earnings are growing, and they’re growing even faster than expected. Another factor that might have contributed to the market tranquility: More investors are participating in workplace retirement plans like 401(k)s. Because these plans make regular investments via payroll deductions, they serve as a sort of thumb on the scale, constantly buying, whether the market is up or it’s down. This has been a steady, multi-year trend. The third factor contributing to market tranquility: artificial intelligence. Yes, there are concerns about it, but so far, these seem mostly theoretical. Most notably, there’s been the worry that AI systems would replace jobs and cause widespread unemployment. Last year, Sam Altman, the chief executive of OpenAI, warned that “a lot of jobs will go away.” At least one company blamed AI in initiating a round of layoffs, reinforcing Altman’s warning. More recently, though, Altman has backtracked. In an interview in May, he acknowledged that he was “pretty wrong.” “I’m delighted to be wrong about this,” he said. “I thought there would have been more impact on entry-level white-collar jobs being eliminated by now than ​has actually happened.” The data seems in line with Altman’s updated view. A year or two ago, it was easier to dismiss the early versions of ChatGPT for their tendency to fabricate information, but sentiment has shifted. Instead of putting white-collar workers out of jobs, AI seems instead to be helping them be more productive. Lawyers use it to help with research, programmers use it to write code, marketers use it to create websites and finance people use it to build spreadsheets. The list goes on, and because of all that, I suspect, investors have a generally optimistic outlook on the economy. Many people view AI as being in the early innings, with far greater productivity gains in front of us. But then came last Friday, when the market began to sputter. Why the sudden shift? The proximate cause was a strong employment report released on Friday morning. The economy added 172,000 jobs in May, more than double what economists had expected. And the numbers for March and April were both revised upward. This was all good news. The problem for the stock market, though, is that investors tend to think a few steps ahead, and that can turn good news into bad news. The worry in this case is that a strong employment picture will result in inflationary pressures, because more workers will have more money to spend. Taken together with the already elevated inflation resulting from oil prices, the fear is that the Federal Reserve might be forced to raise interest rates this year, after dropping them several times last year. Reflecting this worry, interest rates rose last Friday to 16-month highs. And because stocks tend to fall when rates rise, stocks dropped. And thus, with just one press release, market sentiment soured. Benjamin Graham famously stated: “In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.” From day to day, in other words, stock prices tend to be driven by sentiment, stories and emotion. But over the longer term, logic generally prevails, and stock prices will more rationally reflect companies’ profit levels.  I agree with Graham’s description of the market. What I would add, though, is that the stock market is also like a pinball machine. It isn’t so much that investors are irrational. Instead, the reality is that there’s simply too much news out there for even the most reasonable person to process at any given time. So people respond to whatever happens to catch their attention or whatever they see as most important. That differs from individual to individual and can also change from day to day. The result is the seemingly erratic ups and downs that we’ve being seeing recently, and that we see so often. This is another reason why I think the best approach for investors is to never react too strongly to the day’s news and instead to take the long view. History has shown that this is when Graham’s weighing machine should ultimately carry the day. Adam M. Grossman is the founder of Mayport, a fixed-fee wealth management firm. Sign up for Adam's Daily Ideas email, follow him on X @AdamMGrossman and check out his earlier articles.
Read more »

Many seniors think we paid for our Social Security benefits based on the FICA taxes we paid. Let’s dispel that myth- we didn’t

"This isn’t about Congress, it’s about people making decisions and supporting policies based on false information."
- R Quinn
Read more »

Beyond Bank Accounts

I OPENED MY FIRST bank account in the US at a local credit union (CU) close to my workplace. The CU had several convenient offers for employees of our company. With minimal effort, I opened checking and savings accounts, got free checkbooks and a credit card despite having no credit history in the US.

I was so pleased with the convenience that I handled all my banking needs through this CU for many years. That included direct deposit of my salary, payments and withdrawals, a car loan, and certificates of deposit (CDs) as my savings grew. I still maintain my checking account here and occasionally enjoy special favors as a longtime loyal customer.

Eventually, I realized that I earned very little interest from the bank deposits. I shopped around, found other banks with better rates, opened several accounts here and there, and moved my money around.

I felt good about being proactive and getting a better return on my cash reserve. But that feeling was short-lived as I started learning more about personal finance and investments. Tired of chasing yields in bank accounts, I eventually embraced US Treasurys (debt issued and backed by the US Government) as my alternative to savings accounts and CDs.

For those unfamiliar with US Treasurys, think of them as CDs with maturities ranging from four weeks to 30 years. They're widely used as a "safe investment" by individual, institutional and even sovereign investors around the world.

There are some key differences, though. Bank deposits are insured only up to $250,000. US Treasurys, on the other hand, are backed by the full faith and credit of the US Government. Therefore, there is virtually no default risk regardless of the investment amount.

Treasury interest rates, both short-term and long-term, are heavily influenced by monetary policy actions of the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Treasury interest rates directly affect many interest rates we encounter in everyday life: bank accounts, CDs, mortgage, car loans, personal and business loans, and so on.

Treasury interest rates are often higher than comparable bank products. Why? Because the intermediary financial institutions take their cut for operational costs and profits. Result? Suboptimal, or sometimes almost non-existent, interest on bank deposits.

But wait. What if I need my money back?

With bank deposits, I can walk in and withdraw cash from my account. If my money is locked in a CD, I may have to pay a penalty for early withdrawal, but I can still access it fairly quickly. What happens if I'm holding Treasurys? Do I need to wait until maturity?

That leads us to another important aspect of US Treasurys: their extremely high liquidity.

I can certainly buy newly issued Treasurys and wait until maturity, but I don't have to wait for these events. Investors around the world buy and sell Treasurys in the open market every day, making them one of the most liquid investments in existence.

Their liquidity, safety and meaningful return make Treasurys a compelling alternative for both short- and long-term cash reserves.

Sounds interesting? That's exactly how I felt after doing my own research. All I needed to figure out was the best way to invest in them.

Instead of buying Treasurys directly from the US Treasury, I use my brokerage accounts and buy and sell individual Treasurys or Treasury exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the open market, just like stocks or funds. (I used to participate in Treasury auctions through the brokerage account to buy new issues and set my holdings to auto-roll upon maturity, but I eventually stopped doing that to keep things simple.)

For annual expenses and short-term cash needs, I like short-term, highly liquid, Treasury ETFs with a practically negligible expense ratio.

For money expected in three to four years, I favor short- and intermediate-term Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) ETFs. TIPS have a lower interest rate compared to equivalent regular Treasurys, but their principal is adjusted with inflation, helping mitigate the risk of unexpected inflation.

For cash reserves further into the future, five years or more, my preference is a ladder of individual TIPS bonds, each maturing in a specific future year. Bond trading is slightly more involved than ETFs or stocks, so target-maturity TIPS ETFs can also be a reasonable alternative despite their slightly higher management fees.

Is there a catch compared to keeping money in conventional bank accounts?

I can't think of any, but there are two noticeable differences worth understanding.

First, unlike money sitting in bank accounts, Treasury investments fluctuate in value because they constantly change hands in open markets. For short-term Treasurys, the fluctuations are usually tiny. For intermediate- and long-term Treasurys, the swing can be more noticeable, especially when there's a major change in the interest rate expectation. Thankfully, these fluctuations are usually modest, and over time Treasurys often come out ahead compared to bank deposits.

The second difference deserves a bit more attention.

With a bank account, you can get hold of your money almost immediately. Treasury investments, however, may take a couple of business days to turn into spendable cash. You need to sell the ETF or bond during market hours. Once the transaction settles, usually the next business day, the proceeds can then be transferred out to the checking account for spending. In some cases, you may be able to carry on your spending activities directly from the brokerage account.

Over time, I shifted most of my liquid savings to Treasurys because of the improved result. Yet I still see many people leaving large cash balances in bank products or chasing yields from one bank to another.

I suspect the main reason is simple: lack of familiarity with US Treasurys.

  Sanjib Saha retired early from software engineering to dedicate more time to family and friends, pursue personal development and assist others as a money wellness mentor. Self-taught in investments, he passed the Series 65 licensing exam as a non-industry candidate. Sanjib is the president and cofounder of Dollar Mentor, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization offering free investment and financial education. Follow his nonprofit on LinkedIn, and check out Sanjib’s earlier articles.
Read more »

Defining Enough

"How many years does your essential spending "floor" cover?"
- Karen Young
Read more »

What Remains: Money and Me

"Thank you Konrad. What always impressed me was that he never measured success solely in financial terms. He cared deeply about helping people live better lives, and he did so with remarkable kindness and decency. Reading comments like yours reminds me that his influence continues far beyond the articles and books he left behind. For that, I am very grateful."
- Andrew Clements
Read more »

…..taxes and you

"Yes, those income taxes, especially for the retirees strike me as crazy low."
- Dan Smith
Read more »

FIXING SOCIAL SECURITY IS NOT THAT HARD, HERE’S HOW

"For those wondering, here are the relative contributions of Dick's choices. I'm not sure why the Total below does not equal the sum of the percentages, but it is listed just as it appears on the CRFB site. I think it exceeds 100% to build the reserve needed to actuarially accrue the amount necessary to fund future benefits beyond the 75th year. Feel free to correct my misunderstanding(s). Summary: Congratulations! Under your plan Social Security will be sustainably solvent for the next 75 years and beyond. Your Policy Selections/% of gap closed
  • Cap COLAs for Top Half of Beneficiaries/25%
  • Increase Payroll Tax by 2%/52%
  • Eliminate Tax Max with Benefit Credit for Additional Payments/50%
  • Apply Payroll Tax to Employer Health Insurance Contributions/23%
Total: 148% In 2050, your plan would reduce total scheduled benefits by 3% and increase payable benefits by 25%. Your plan would increase taxes by 43%."
- Dan Malone
Read more »

What’s in your portfolio ?

"I was going to say the same, but I will add for someone who has no interest in managing money a Vanguard personal advisor with their low fee would be worth every penny, and you would have to assume they would continue on a similar path as to what you are doing now. My wife has been told that the first monetary move after I die is to call Vanguard and set this up."
- DavidHLancaster
Read more »

Gold and Diamonds

"Mark, another great piece - thanks. Two thoughts. Firstly, my wife has a very simple wedding ring that she likes. No idea how many karats of anything might be involved. But Cindy likes it, and that's all that matters. I didn't get a wedding ring, as I have never worn any jewelry. Cindy and I agreed that it was pointless to purchase something that I wouldn't wear. Secondly, I think your article makes a really nice point about gold, diamonds, Bitcoin and a range of other non-productive assets. There is no sensible methodology to determine what the fair value of any of these speculative assets should be. As many other comments have noted, investing in income-producing assets just makes a lot more sense to me."
- greg_j_tomamichel
Read more »

Can one “core” total bond ETF replace the complexity of your bond holdings?

"I like simplicity as well, and your current approach is more complexity than I need. I also don’t care to monitor my funds’ underlying holdings too closely. Our largest bond holding is Fidelity Total Bond (a core plus fund, FTBFX and FBND) followed by Fidelity Inflation Protected Bond Index (FIPDX). Both are gold-rated by Morningstar. These are both intermediate duration and so there’s interest rate risk to consider. We also hold a significant amount of cash in a 401(k) stable value fund.  You ask three questions, one in the title and two more at the end of the text: “Can one “core” total bond ETF replace the complexity of your bond holdings?” Probably not just one. I’m not aware of a total bond fund that owns TIPS for example. “If you want the simplicity of owning only one bond ETF rather than actual bonds or multiple bond ETFs that yield more than the index, what should you consider?” A good core plus fund can do this for you. Yes, they take on some other risks to do so, but so do the multiple ETFs you’re holding. “Can you have low risk and high return with one bond ETF?” As others have said with more words, no. "
- Michael1
Read more »

A Sunday Thought About Money

"Love this reflection, Mark. Every couple of weeks, when the weather is nice, I will take a seat on my top deck around 11pm with a small snifter of brandy for a session of wonder and gratitude. I look across the Sound at the lights of downtown Seattle and watch the distant airliners taking off from the airport, idly wondering where they're going at that late hour. It's a home and a view I never dreamed of affording when I was younger and broke and scrambling for underpaid jobs. Behind and below me sleeps a loving family I never expected that came to me rather late in life. Wife, Mama, sister-in-law are safe and comfortable because I can take care of them. I'm alive, remarkably, because of a medical breakthrough a decade ago that landed just when I needed it -- and for which I could afford to cover what insurance did not. I'm not wealthy by any means, but I never again have to worry about paying the bills, which is wealth in my book. And I truly don't know how it all happened. I can't figure out how I got this lucky. So with each sip of brandy I'm flooded with appreciation for being here to enjoy a simple life that is beyond what I ever aspired to have."
- Mike Gaynes
Read more »

The Market’s Unpredictability

EARLIER THIS SPRING, Emil Verner, an economist at MIT, made an observation: The stock market, he said, seemed to be exhibiting “excess tranquility.” Despite an ongoing war, inflation and other negative headlines, investors seemed surprisingly unfazed. The market was on track for its fourth year in a row of positive returns. Through May, it had gained 11%. But no sooner did Verner make this observation that the market did begin to wobble. Last Friday, the Nasdaq index dropped more than 4%, and several individual stocks sank more than 10%. How can we make sense of this—that, despite the headlines, the market was so resilient for so many months, but then reversed course so suddenly? Looking at this question can help us better understand the nature of the stock market and why its movements often seem so illogical. We can start by looking at the period prior to last Friday’s decline. Despite the ongoing war and resulting inflation, the market had risen steadily throughout April and May. Why? Three factors likely contributed. First, and probably most importantly: While the war with Iran caused gasoline prices to jump, the impact on the overall economy has been more muted than most people expected. Despite the negative impact on commodity prices and interest rates, corporate America has been doing well. Among companies that reported earnings in the first quarter of this year, 85% beat expectations. For reference, over the past 10 years, approximately 76% of companies typically beat estimates. So corporate earnings are growing, and they’re growing even faster than expected. Another factor that might have contributed to the market tranquility: More investors are participating in workplace retirement plans like 401(k)s. Because these plans make regular investments via payroll deductions, they serve as a sort of thumb on the scale, constantly buying, whether the market is up or it’s down. This has been a steady, multi-year trend. The third factor contributing to market tranquility: artificial intelligence. Yes, there are concerns about it, but so far, these seem mostly theoretical. Most notably, there’s been the worry that AI systems would replace jobs and cause widespread unemployment. Last year, Sam Altman, the chief executive of OpenAI, warned that “a lot of jobs will go away.” At least one company blamed AI in initiating a round of layoffs, reinforcing Altman’s warning. More recently, though, Altman has backtracked. In an interview in May, he acknowledged that he was “pretty wrong.” “I’m delighted to be wrong about this,” he said. “I thought there would have been more impact on entry-level white-collar jobs being eliminated by now than ​has actually happened.” The data seems in line with Altman’s updated view. A year or two ago, it was easier to dismiss the early versions of ChatGPT for their tendency to fabricate information, but sentiment has shifted. Instead of putting white-collar workers out of jobs, AI seems instead to be helping them be more productive. Lawyers use it to help with research, programmers use it to write code, marketers use it to create websites and finance people use it to build spreadsheets. The list goes on, and because of all that, I suspect, investors have a generally optimistic outlook on the economy. Many people view AI as being in the early innings, with far greater productivity gains in front of us. But then came last Friday, when the market began to sputter. Why the sudden shift? The proximate cause was a strong employment report released on Friday morning. The economy added 172,000 jobs in May, more than double what economists had expected. And the numbers for March and April were both revised upward. This was all good news. The problem for the stock market, though, is that investors tend to think a few steps ahead, and that can turn good news into bad news. The worry in this case is that a strong employment picture will result in inflationary pressures, because more workers will have more money to spend. Taken together with the already elevated inflation resulting from oil prices, the fear is that the Federal Reserve might be forced to raise interest rates this year, after dropping them several times last year. Reflecting this worry, interest rates rose last Friday to 16-month highs. And because stocks tend to fall when rates rise, stocks dropped. And thus, with just one press release, market sentiment soured. Benjamin Graham famously stated: “In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.” From day to day, in other words, stock prices tend to be driven by sentiment, stories and emotion. But over the longer term, logic generally prevails, and stock prices will more rationally reflect companies’ profit levels.  I agree with Graham’s description of the market. What I would add, though, is that the stock market is also like a pinball machine. It isn’t so much that investors are irrational. Instead, the reality is that there’s simply too much news out there for even the most reasonable person to process at any given time. So people respond to whatever happens to catch their attention or whatever they see as most important. That differs from individual to individual and can also change from day to day. The result is the seemingly erratic ups and downs that we’ve being seeing recently, and that we see so often. This is another reason why I think the best approach for investors is to never react too strongly to the day’s news and instead to take the long view. History has shown that this is when Graham’s weighing machine should ultimately carry the day. Adam M. Grossman is the founder of Mayport, a fixed-fee wealth management firm. Sign up for Adam's Daily Ideas email, follow him on X @AdamMGrossman and check out his earlier articles.
Read more »

Many seniors think we paid for our Social Security benefits based on the FICA taxes we paid. Let’s dispel that myth- we didn’t

"This isn’t about Congress, it’s about people making decisions and supporting policies based on false information."
- R Quinn
Read more »

Beyond Bank Accounts

I OPENED MY FIRST bank account in the US at a local credit union (CU) close to my workplace. The CU had several convenient offers for employees of our company. With minimal effort, I opened checking and savings accounts, got free checkbooks and a credit card despite having no credit history in the US.

I was so pleased with the convenience that I handled all my banking needs through this CU for many years. That included direct deposit of my salary, payments and withdrawals, a car loan, and certificates of deposit (CDs) as my savings grew. I still maintain my checking account here and occasionally enjoy special favors as a longtime loyal customer.

Eventually, I realized that I earned very little interest from the bank deposits. I shopped around, found other banks with better rates, opened several accounts here and there, and moved my money around.

I felt good about being proactive and getting a better return on my cash reserve. But that feeling was short-lived as I started learning more about personal finance and investments. Tired of chasing yields in bank accounts, I eventually embraced US Treasurys (debt issued and backed by the US Government) as my alternative to savings accounts and CDs.

For those unfamiliar with US Treasurys, think of them as CDs with maturities ranging from four weeks to 30 years. They're widely used as a "safe investment" by individual, institutional and even sovereign investors around the world.

There are some key differences, though. Bank deposits are insured only up to $250,000. US Treasurys, on the other hand, are backed by the full faith and credit of the US Government. Therefore, there is virtually no default risk regardless of the investment amount.

Treasury interest rates, both short-term and long-term, are heavily influenced by monetary policy actions of the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Treasury interest rates directly affect many interest rates we encounter in everyday life: bank accounts, CDs, mortgage, car loans, personal and business loans, and so on.

Treasury interest rates are often higher than comparable bank products. Why? Because the intermediary financial institutions take their cut for operational costs and profits. Result? Suboptimal, or sometimes almost non-existent, interest on bank deposits.

But wait. What if I need my money back?

With bank deposits, I can walk in and withdraw cash from my account. If my money is locked in a CD, I may have to pay a penalty for early withdrawal, but I can still access it fairly quickly. What happens if I'm holding Treasurys? Do I need to wait until maturity?

That leads us to another important aspect of US Treasurys: their extremely high liquidity.

I can certainly buy newly issued Treasurys and wait until maturity, but I don't have to wait for these events. Investors around the world buy and sell Treasurys in the open market every day, making them one of the most liquid investments in existence.

Their liquidity, safety and meaningful return make Treasurys a compelling alternative for both short- and long-term cash reserves.

Sounds interesting? That's exactly how I felt after doing my own research. All I needed to figure out was the best way to invest in them.

Instead of buying Treasurys directly from the US Treasury, I use my brokerage accounts and buy and sell individual Treasurys or Treasury exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the open market, just like stocks or funds. (I used to participate in Treasury auctions through the brokerage account to buy new issues and set my holdings to auto-roll upon maturity, but I eventually stopped doing that to keep things simple.)

For annual expenses and short-term cash needs, I like short-term, highly liquid, Treasury ETFs with a practically negligible expense ratio.

For money expected in three to four years, I favor short- and intermediate-term Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) ETFs. TIPS have a lower interest rate compared to equivalent regular Treasurys, but their principal is adjusted with inflation, helping mitigate the risk of unexpected inflation.

For cash reserves further into the future, five years or more, my preference is a ladder of individual TIPS bonds, each maturing in a specific future year. Bond trading is slightly more involved than ETFs or stocks, so target-maturity TIPS ETFs can also be a reasonable alternative despite their slightly higher management fees.

Is there a catch compared to keeping money in conventional bank accounts?

I can't think of any, but there are two noticeable differences worth understanding.

First, unlike money sitting in bank accounts, Treasury investments fluctuate in value because they constantly change hands in open markets. For short-term Treasurys, the fluctuations are usually tiny. For intermediate- and long-term Treasurys, the swing can be more noticeable, especially when there's a major change in the interest rate expectation. Thankfully, these fluctuations are usually modest, and over time Treasurys often come out ahead compared to bank deposits.

The second difference deserves a bit more attention.

With a bank account, you can get hold of your money almost immediately. Treasury investments, however, may take a couple of business days to turn into spendable cash. You need to sell the ETF or bond during market hours. Once the transaction settles, usually the next business day, the proceeds can then be transferred out to the checking account for spending. In some cases, you may be able to carry on your spending activities directly from the brokerage account.

Over time, I shifted most of my liquid savings to Treasurys because of the improved result. Yet I still see many people leaving large cash balances in bank products or chasing yields from one bank to another.

I suspect the main reason is simple: lack of familiarity with US Treasurys.

  Sanjib Saha retired early from software engineering to dedicate more time to family and friends, pursue personal development and assist others as a money wellness mentor. Self-taught in investments, he passed the Series 65 licensing exam as a non-industry candidate. Sanjib is the president and cofounder of Dollar Mentor, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization offering free investment and financial education. Follow his nonprofit on LinkedIn, and check out Sanjib’s earlier articles.
Read more »

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Get Educated

Manifesto

NO. 62: IF WE’LL SPEND money in the next few years, cash is the only prudent choice—but we shouldn’t hold more than necessary. Why not? After taxes and inflation, we’re likely losing money.

Truths

NO. 52: WE CAN’T forecast returns, but we can manage risk. Will stocks plunge? As the saying goes, “If you ask a stupid question, you’ll get a stupid answer.” Forget trying to guess whether stocks will nosedive. Instead, ponder the consequences: Would a sharp market drop imperil upcoming goals—or could you shrug off the short-term financial hit?

think

FLOW. We imagine what we want most is time to relax. But in truth, we get great satisfaction from work—provided it’s work we find challenging and interesting, and feel we’re good at. All this is captured by psychology professor Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi’s notion of flow. During moments of flow, we can become completely absorbed and lose all sense of time.

act

DECIDE WHICH DEBTS to pay off first. Looking to repay your loans more quickly than required? You’ll usually want to focus on ridding yourself of your highest-interest debt. But suppose you have a car loan that’s almost paid off. Even if the rate is low, you might pay extra toward that loan—because eliminating it will immediately improve your monthly cash flow.

Stocks bonds cash

Manifesto

NO. 62: IF WE’LL SPEND money in the next few years, cash is the only prudent choice—but we shouldn’t hold more than necessary. Why not? After taxes and inflation, we’re likely losing money.

Spotlight: Lists

Pre-Retirement List

At Thanksgiving, my son-in-law was asking me a number of financially related questions about retirement.  He’s about 10 years away from retirement, but he knew I retired last year, so it was fresh in my mind.  I created the following pre-retirement list for him to think about.  Update: The list has been updated based on comments from the HD community.
 HD Community:  Are there any financially-related things you did to prepare for retirement that aren’t listed below? 

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He Asked, I Answered

I’VE BEEN CHALLENGED—by Mr. Clements, no less. Jonathan didn’t actually say it, but his challenge was to defend my unorthodox views on investing and retirement, and the actions I’ve taken as a result.

Some of my decisions will seem illogical to others. Some don’t maximize investment returns. Some are very conservative, others not so much.

I don’t like math. I don’t like details. I haven’t used a spreadsheet in 30 years. I focus on the big picture and long-term goals.

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Four Mantras

I’m not big on aphorisms—at least when talking to others. But there are certain things I say to myself all the time. Like what? Here are four mantras that I repeat to myself on an almost daily basis:
“First, do what you have to do, then do what you want to do.” This is my vegetables-first approach to the day. I have an ongoing to-do list that I typically revise each evening. When I look at that list in the morning,

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Looking Different

I’VE ALWAYS ASSUMED my financial life wasn’t so different from that of others—and that made writing personal-finance articles a whole lot easier. I, too, wanted to own a home, buy the right insurance, pay for the kids’ college, and amass enough for a long and comfortable retirement.
On top of that, I wasn’t some financial minority—a highly paid executive, or a successful business owner, or the recipient of a hefty inheritance. Instead, I was like most everybody else,

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Read This for FREE!

To my best recollection, I first came across the book Predictably Irrational by Dan Ariely while on vacation. While my wife was checking out clothing and jewelry stores—a mild form of torture for me—I found a local bookstore and flipped through some of the more interesting chapters in Ariely’s book. One chapter’s thesis is that getting free stuff can be “a source of irrational excitement.” While the chapter is mostly about how our penchant for free things can be manipulated by marketers,

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Dick Quinn’s guaranteed route to becoming “rich.”

What does it take to be “rich?”  Answering that question is nearly impossible. There are as many answers as Google sites, but after trying, I have settled on being in the top 10% of income and net worth at around $200,000 per year and $2,000,000. Most people think that’s rich.
Keep in mind you can meet the net worth goal even falling short on income. 
What got me thinking about this was reading various social media sites where individuals were complaining about their inability to be wealthy and displayed strong envy over those who were.

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Spotlight: Zaccardi

Bonus Round

LAST AUGUST, I wrote about the retention bonuses I scored by simply initiating a transfer of assets from one brokerage firm to another. Back then, I said I’d wait six months and then try again to capture this free money. This time around, one broker offered me a promotion simply to stay put, but two others wouldn’t. I did some quick Google searches and found offers elsewhere, so I initiated the transfers and collected those bonuses. The whole process was fast and simple. And because I don’t actively trade, I don’t much care how one broker’s offerings compare to another's. What’s the downside? I have more accounts to track and I have to pay small fees to close out old accounts, though the receiving brokerage firm often reimburses those fees. Come tax time, I’ll have a few extra 1099-DIVs. But most tax software packages can import those forms easy-peasy. In all, I’ve scored $2,250 between retention bonuses and new account offers. That money is taxable, so I mentally shave 22%—my marginal tax rate—off that sum to get a true measure of my winnings. Being an investment nerd, I find it fun to poke around on the new trading platforms to see what tools I can use for my analytical work and financial writing. I like Fidelity Investments’ exchange-traded fund (ETF) comparison tool. I find Charles Schwab’s mutual fund research helpful when I do work for advisors. TD Ameritrade’s thinkorswim is great for charting. And most of these firms offer solid research reports on companies and ETFs. I can always keep a few bucks in old accounts if I want to continue accessing such features.
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Parents Know Best

A DECADE AGO, I was sure I knew everything. I scrimped and saved as much as I could to fully fund my retirement accounts. My goal was to retire early. All that was fine for me. My error: casting my credos on others. I gave my parents grief for what I considered to be their excessive spending and insufficient regard for long-term planning. I was wrong. While it’s imperative for those in their 40s and 50s to have their retirement plan on track, it’s also imperative to make memories by leading an enjoyable life. I was—and likely still am—at one end of the spectrum. I focused on growing my net worth as much as possible. My parents, back in the day, leaned the opposite way. They aggressively invested in experiences for my siblings and me. Jump ahead to today. I love the idea that my folks want to upgrade their kitchen. Maybe it isn’t the most opportune time, given supply chain bottlenecks and raw material price spikes. But who cares? After a decade of stock, bond and real estate gains, they’re in good financial shape. Delaying their Social Security benefits to age 70 was another prudent choice. I say go ahead and put in those fancy new countertops, sleek cabinets and stylish appliances. Despite recent health scares, my mother still works. She uses the kitchen as her office. Why shouldn’t she have a great place to spend the day? I think back to what my 23-year-old self would think about that. I’m sure I would have made rude comments about how the money would be better invested in a low-cost, target-date fund instead of depreciating material items. Now I think spend-shaming is never the answer. It turns out my parents knew best.
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Getting Back In

WORKING ON A TRADING floor has its perks—or, at least, it did back when we were all in the office, instead of toiling away from home. The trading floor where I work is small, but it still houses perhaps 50 people. As you’d expect, we have TVs all around, tuned to CNBC, Bloomberg and—my personal favorite—The Weather Channel. My colleagues often talk stocks and portfolios. What’s neat is you get a good sense of investor sentiment being out on the floor and among finance folks who are geared to day-to-day market movements. But even though I haven’t been on the trading floor for a few months, it’s easy to sense that many people are cautious—fearful of the next shoe to drop or that we’ll “retest the lows”—and so they’re holding more cash than they want. If you’re in that camp, you shouldn’t beat yourself up about it. But you need a strategy for getting back in. One thing I’ve learned about investing: We should always have a plan for what we’ll do if we’re right and—more important—if we’re wrong. It’s the latter situation that a lot of people are unprepared for. Are you one of those investors sitting with cash on the sidelines and you realize you should put some or all of it into stocks? You’ve probably heard this before: We hate losses 2½ times as much as we enjoy gains. Regret is an emotion we constantly seek to minimize. With that in mind, here are five strategies that I use when putting money to work in the stock market: 1. Run the numbers—and then just do it. I check my personal asset allocation to see where I’m underweight and then, during the trading day, I’ll do some buying if it feels like a good moment to invest. The hard…
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Over Active?

CATHIE WOOD'S ARK Innovation ETF was the toast of the investing town in 2020 and early 2021. The star portfolio manager picked one winning stock after another—stocks that benefited as much of the world shifted to work-from-anywhere. Like so many other hot funds, her time in the sun didn’t last. After Wood’s flagship ARK fund returned more than 150% in 2020, plus another 25% to start 2021, the bubble finally popped last February. The peak-to-trough decline was 57.6% through Jan. 31. ARK Innovation (symbol: ARKK) is an actively managed exchange-traded fund (ETF). Most ETFs passively track a market index. But as ETFs ballooned in popularity, some portfolio managers got crafty and opened active ETFs. An active ETF works like an actively managed mutual fund, with portfolio managers betting on stocks they think will outperform the market. Active ETFs have some notable advantages over regular mutual funds, including potentially lower fees, effectively no investment minimum, and the ability for investors to buy and sell them throughout the trading day rather than waiting for the 4 p.m. ET market close, as happens with mutual funds. But perhaps the biggest benefit is the favorable tax treatment that the ETF wrapper offers. By contrast, regular actively managed mutual funds often make large taxable distributions to shareholders. Still, relatively little money is allocated to active ETFs. According to Morningstar, they account for just 3.5% of the $6.6 trillion ETF market. As we’re now discovering with ARK Innovation ETF, maybe that’s a good thing. How do active ETFs work? As with index ETFs, each active ETF has both a share price and a net asset value (NAV), which is the value of the fund’s portfolio figured on a per-share basis. To keep those two in line, there’s a mechanism whereby “authorized participants”—designated institutional investors—can exchange shares…
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Still Too Warm

I'M 34 GOING ON 74. Like an old man set in his ways, I routinely prepare my own meals and rarely go out to eat. But last week, I shook things up by scarfing down some ribs at a nearby outdoor mall. I couldn’t help but notice all of the “now hiring” signs. It’s a far cry from when I ventured to the same mall in March and April 2020. Do you remember that feeling—the uncertainty and anxiety about what life was going to look like amid the height of the pandemic? I recall walking around feeling like I was on a different planet. Storefronts were shuttered. Few souls were in view on what was usually a busy Friday evening. Fast forward two-and-a-half years. Last week, we received fresh snapshots showing how tight the labor market is—at least aside from the tech sector. Tuesday featured a surprising jump in the number of job openings from 10.3 million at the end of August to 10.7 million in September, according to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). Economists expected just 9.8 million vacant positions. That’s an indication of not enough labor supply, which further pressures the Federal Reserve to keep up its aggressive rate-hiking. Short-term interest rates spiked when the strong JOLTS report hit the tape. Soft employment readings then came from two broad economic activity reports. The ISM Manufacturing and ISM Services Employment subindexes revealed a mixed picture. The manufacturing sector’s job market was stronger than forecast, while the services sector showed modest labor market contraction last month. Finally, the big October jobs report was released Friday morning. The 261,000 jobs created were above analysts’ expectations, but the unemployment rate ticked up. Overall, I’d call it a “warm” report—not quite as hot as some other big monthly job gains…
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All That Glitters

TEN YEARS AGO, I recall sitting in a meeting at a local financial planning firm. We hadn't heard of cryptocurrencies. The term “FAANG stocks” hadn’t yet been coined. On the minds of many individual investors was a different hot asset: gold. Gold is the butt of many jokes in the financial blogosphere these days. Who can blame them? The shiny metal is flat over the past decade—and, of course, has produced no dividends in that time—while the S&P 500’s total return is more than 370%. Even relatively weak foreign stocks have climbed 100%. But a decade ago, investors who were clamoring for gold didn’t know such a dismal period was in store. After all, CNBC headlines at the time were a constant flow of bullish sentiment. The world’s biggest ETF was SPDR Gold Shares (symbol: GLD) and the price of an ounce of gold had been higher in each of the 10 years leading up to September 2011. The precious metal had returned nearly 600% from September 2001 up until that meeting. Meanwhile, at the time, stocks were experiencing a correction, plus longer-term returns had been lousy since March 2000. The preceding decade had seen gains of just 25% for S&P 500 investors. “The lost decade,” it was dubbed. What was the meeting about? The lead financial planner wanted our take on gold because so many clients were asking for it. I recall arguing that, after a decade of outstanding performance, another string of strong annual returns was unlikely. Also, stocks were cheap, with the S&P 500 trading at a price-earnings ratio of just 13.5. What is today's asset that everyone feels they must own, but which likely won't produce impressive profits over the next 10 years? I’m sure you have a few in mind. But I’d cast my vote…
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