Status of the Social Security and Medicare Programs
normr60189 | Jun 18, 2025
Released: A SUMMARY OF THE 2025 ANNUAL REPORTS
Social Security and Medicare Boards of Trustees "Based on our best estimates, this year's reports show that...... The Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) Trust Fund will be able to pay 100 percent of total scheduled benefits until 2033, unchanged from last year’s report. At that time, the fund’s reserves will become depleted and continuing program income will be sufficient to pay 77 percent of total scheduled benefits......" "As in prior years, we found that the Social Security and Medicare programs both continue to face significant financing issues. The non-health-specific intermediate (best estimate) assumptions for these reports were set in December 2024. The Trustees will continue to monitor developments, reevaluate the assumptions, and modify the projections in later reports." For more information go to the SS website: https://www.ssa.gov/oact/trsum/
Read more » AI and my electric bill
normr60189 | Oct 31, 2025
My electric utility is using AI analysis of my usage patterns to determine how my home uses electricity. For example, identifying various appliances by their energy signature. For several months it has been providing me with a summary.
Is this useful? Well, knowing this implies I can make changes if I choose to exercise some control. For example, altering my cooling thermostat setting. Of course, ambient, outdoor temperatures and amount of sunlight are a factor. Or, I could add some timers to reduce "always on" power consumption.
How is this determined? For example, a washing machine goes through various phases; adding water, soaking, washing and spinning to dry the clothes. A refrigerator has a continuous, 24 hour cycle. Etc. Certain appliances have a larger energy spike. Air conditioning can be identified by its larger draw, particularly when the compressor is energized.
My power company tells me there is some comparative analysis, too which is “learned” over time.
So here is the way my electric company sees my usage for the most recent 29 day billing period:
Cooling $21
Always on: $15
Laundry: $7
Refrigeration: $5
Cooking $3
Entertainment: $1
Lighting $1
Other Appliances $1
29 day Total $83.66
Read more » CalPERS Adapts a Total Portfolio Approach
normr60189 | Jan 17, 2026
In November 2025 CalPERS, a $600 billion pension plan, announced it would adopt the Total Portfolio Approach. The model rethinks portfolio construction. “Instead of starting with a fixed split, such as 60% stocks and 40% bonds, it begins by examining how different investments behave…..The goal is a portfolio that behaves more predictably when markets get rough.” “The Total Portfolio Approach (TPA) is a holistic investment strategy that integrates all assets into a unified portfolio, focusing on overall performance rather than managing asset classes in isolation.” To accomplish this, the Total Portfolio Approach (TPA) groups investments by risk. The approach looks at how an investment acts in different market environments. This alters the distinction of stocks and bonds. If you think this can get complex, you are correct. TPA may look at 6 or more risk factors. I understand that TPA, at its core looks at two factors, Growth and Stability. From this perspective, high yield bonds are considered growth investments because they tend to behave more like equities during market downturns. On the other hand, Value stocks such as the Dividend Aristocrats behave more like Stability assets. This is somewhat intuitive, and investors have used stable, dividend paying companies to improve their portfolios for decades. However, in practice attempting to follow the TPA metrics may be difficult and TPA isn’t perfect. I suppose, if simplified, it will provide another way to view portfolio makeup and diversification. Younger investors may not be interested in stability. However, as I approached age 60 I shifted to viewing my retirement portfolio as a pension fund, and I made periodic changes to improve stability. I've noticed my portfolio doesn't react to market downturns as might be expected based upon the allocation of stocks/bonds/cash.
Read more » Considering a Lost Decade When Retirement Planning
normr60189 | Jan 13, 2026
In a recent post, “lost decade” investment periods were mentioned. Looking at safe withdrawal rates, there is an assumption of portfolio continuity. Uniform returns over a long period of time coupled with consistent withdrawals. In such an environment, a portfolio which yields 6% annually can sustain a withdrawal rate that begins at 4% and the portfolio will increase in value. But over 30 years it may decrease in purchasing power. [1] But what if a “Lost Decade” occurs? Financial writers have addressed this and I think those nearing or in retirement should consider such a scenario when making financial plans. I’ve experienced several such decades and witnessed what occurred for retirees. The worst possible time for this to occur is when one is on the cusp of retirement. In such a situation a 30-year withdrawal period begins with a portfolio decrease and 10-years of stagnation. It is aggravated by portfolio draw-down. What might this look like? For some, we might be able to ride it out. Take IRS mandated RMDs, but not spend them. Instead, after paying taxes some or all is saved. If the first 10 years of the 30 year withdrawal period is a “Lost Decade” there may be very little or no portfolio appreciation during that period. Furthermore, withdrawals may draw down the balance. In a lost decade a portfolio decreases in value by the amount withdrawn each year. What occurs to a $100,000 portfolio with a 4% annual withdrawal? What is the portfolio value after 10 years? It is $66,483.20. In the 10th year a 4% withdrawal would be $2,639.52. At the beginning of the 30 year period the withdrawal began at $4,000 but decreased each year thereafter. With the end of the decade, the portfolio may again appreciate. What if the remaining $66,483.20 portfolio is invested at 6% for 20 years and simultaneously 4% of the new balance is withdrawn each year? In the final year, 30 years after beginning withdrawals the account balance would be $94,100 and the withdrawal would be $3,764.00. As can be seen, a lost decade can raise havoc for a retiree’s portfolio and actual withdrawals. These begin at $4,000 but decreased each year, falling to about $2,640 and then rising gradually to $3,764.00. Withdrawing more each year may deplete the portfolio. Compare this to a desireable 30 year period without a lost decade. If a $100,000 portfolio is invested at 6% and 4% is withdrawn each year, the portfolio will grow over time. After 30 years it will be about $168,700. The initial 4% withdrawal would be $4,000 and it would be possible to increase the amount each year. [1] Of course, over a 30 year period purchasing power will be severely eroded. Can we avoid this? Well, the overall market will be beyond personal control. However, there are steps we can take, in advance, to plan and prepare for these types of disruptions. [1] Morningstar’s 2026 outlook anticipates a 3.9% initial withdrawal rate for retirees and 2.46% inflation. https://www.morningstar.com/retirement/whats-safe-retirement-withdrawal-rate-2026 ==
Read more » What Could Possibly Go Wrong?
normr60189 | Sep 1, 2025
"U.S. Stocks Are Now Pricier Than They Were in the Dot-Com Era
The S&P 500 has never been this expensive, or more concentrated in fewer companies" - WSJ 9/1/2025 Edited 9/2/2025 per Morningstar: Morningstar US Market Index +10.90% since June 1, 2025! Tech stocks +16.1% over the same period. ==
Summary 200 Day Simple Moving Average: As of today (September 1, 2025), SPX index 200-day simple moving average is 5959.47, with the most recent change of +2.32 (+0.04%) on August 29, 2025.
Over the past year, SPX index 200-day SMA has increased by +837.72 (+16.36%).
SPX index 200-day SMA is now at all-time high. Furthermore, all of the components of Faber’s ‘Ivy-5’ portfolio are above their 10-month Simple Moving Average.
Read more » Using AI to create a robust investment plan
normr60189 | Jul 11, 2025
I’ve been dabbling in AI. Began using precursor “Expert Systems” about 20 years ago, but the new apps are more generalized and interesting. I’m aware of the limitations and anyone who wants to use something like Gemini or ChatGPT should also be aware. They can (and do) generate false information with apparent confidence. This can deceive users. Such disinformation has been given the name "hallucination" or "confabulation" by AI experts. Interesting names for inaccuracy. However, using precise prompts seems to improve the response. I’ve been running tests on Gemini using a range of prompts to build an in-retirement portfolio. I call these "tests" because I have my answer to compare this AI expert to. My early explorations indicate this might be a useful tool to add to my other modelling methods such as Monte-Carlo simulations. I’m also exploring approaches to a more robust withdrawal strategy. All of this is to aid my younger spouse. If anyone is interested in Gemini's complete response, simply copy and paste my prompts into a query. However, AI being what it is, I expect every response will be slightly different. Adding a few terms to the prompts does generate differing results. For example, I asked Gemini to: “Provide a model of an in-retirement portfolio. The portfolio is $1,500,000. Annual withdrawal is 5%. The portfolio is to have a duration of 25 years. Provide an optimal mix of stocks and cash or bonds. Stocks may include ETFs, individual stocks in the US and global. Minimize risk.” I used 5% withdrawal as a means to stress the response. I received a 1,000 word response. A statement of goals and assumptions (inflation, returns and withdrawal rate) were made. Then Gemini went on to provide an “Optimal Mix of Stocks, Bonds, and Cash (Risk-Minimized Focus)”, a “Detailed Asset Allocation”, “Withdrawal Strategy” and “Management & Rebalancing”. The portfolio was 50/50 bonds-cash/equities. It used specific ETFs in its examples. Gemini summed its response this way: “This model provides a robust framework for a risk-minimized, in-retirement portfolio designed for a 25-year duration with a 5% annual withdrawal. The emphasis on high-quality bonds and diversified equities aims to generate income, preserve capital, and offer some inflation protection, all while prioritizing risk management.” Adding Dividends. I then modified the query: ““Provide a model of an in-retirement portfolio. The initial value is $1,500,000. The initial withdrawal rate will be 5%. The duration is 25 years. Consider inflation and the possible returns from US and global stocks, as well as cash and bonds. Should dividend paying stocks be included and if so, what percentage of equities?” I received a more detailed 1,500 word response. This portfolio was 60% bonds-cash and 40% equities. It included a list of example ETFs for stocks and bonds. The allocation percentages of each were provided. A Bucket withdrawal approach was outlined. Gemini summed it this way: “This comprehensive portfolio model balances income generation, inflation protection, and growth, aiming to provide a sustainable retirement income stream for 25 years while effectively managing risk and leveraging the benefits of dividend-paying stocks.”
Read more »
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Investments Tax
Bogdan Sheremeta | Jan 31, 2026
- Net investment income
- Modified adjusted gross income above the threshold
Example Say you have a modified adjusted gross income of $220,000. Your net investment income is $40,000. You are single. How much tax will you pay? $220,000 - $200,000 = $20,000 (above the threshold) The amount subject to the tax is the lesser of:- $20,000 (income above the threshold), or
- $40,000 of net investment income
$20,000 * 0.038 = $760 of tax Common examples of investment income- Gains from the sale of stocks, bonds, and mutual funds
- Capital gain distributions from mutual funds
- Gain from the sale of investment real estate (Primary residence is excluded, up to $250k / $500k of gain)
- Dividends (qualified and ordinary)
- Interest
Note that the NIIT does not apply to:- W-2 wages
- Self-employment income
- Social Security
- Distributions from retirement accounts (401(k), IRA, Roth)
- Income from an active trade or business
Now let’s talk about how we can save some money on taxes: 1. Interest Municipal bond interest (received from a city or state) is tax-exempt. So, if you have a lot of interest income, consider shifting that portion of your portfolio to a municipal bond ETF and avoid the NIIT. However, you still need to do the math to make sure it's worth it. Make sure the yield * (1 - marginal tax rate) is lower than the municipal bond yield. Remember. the goal is not to minimize taxes. The goal is to maximize your after-tax return. 2. Dividends Dividends count toward the 3.8% NIIT. This applies to both qualified and ordinary dividends. If you want to minimize the impact of NIIT, you can rebalance the portfolio to emphasize growth stocks over dividend-paying stocks. That said, make sure your overall asset allocation and risk tolerance are not compromised just to save on taxes. Where possible, holding higher-dividend investments inside tax-advantaged accounts can also reduce exposure. 3. Capital gains timing & tax-loss harvesting Capital gains increase net investment income, which can trigger or increase NIIT. Some planning ideas:- Realize gains in lower-income years, if possible
- Offset gains with harvested losses
- Avoid unnecessary fund turnover in taxable accounts
- Lower net investment income means lower exposure to the 3.8% tax
- Lower your adjusted gross income
4. Lower your adjusted gross income If you stay below the income threshold, you don’t pay the net investment income tax at all. Make sure you’re taking advantage of accounts that lower your income, such as:- 401(k), 403(b), 457(b)
- SEP IRA
- Traditional IRA (if meet income threshold and/or no workplace retirement plan)
- HSA
This helps reduce your regular income tax and the potential NIIT. 5. Installment sales If you can, spreading the gains from the sale of an investment property over multiple years may reduce the impact on your taxable income and limit how much of the gain is subject to the NIIT in any one year. 6. 1031 exchange If you own investment real estate, a 1031 like-kind exchange can defer capital gains and reduce the immediate impact of the NIIT. This doesn’t eliminate the tax forever, but it can significantly improve cash flow and tax efficiency. Final thoughts The net investment income tax often gets overlooked, but for higher earners, it can add thousands of dollars to the tax bill without you even knowing. A few small planning decisions, like asset location, income timing, and account contributions, can make a difference over time. I hope you enjoyed this one. Looking forward to your comments!No Free Ride
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