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This would be a great posting on a web site with the name “HaughtyDollar.”

"Had a great time with Google AI this morning. Just type in: defensive attribution theory, hardship-induced punitiveness, and the "just world" fallacy and the writings of richard quinn at humble dollar points and counterpoints. Then of course, put your own name in or other names! I read about the phenomenon back at college, apparently quite important to know during jury selection. I enjoy Mr. Quinn‘s posts quite a bit, keep it coming. Ever been selected for jury duty? Just asking..fugidaboudit, fellow New Joisian here. All the best!"
- Sean Mooney
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Traditional or Roth

THE CHOICE BETWEEN a traditional retirement account or a Roth is a frequent topic on HumbleDollar. The choice is generally framed as a choice between paying taxes up front (a Roth), or deferring taxes until withdrawal (traditional). I thought it would be interesting to evaluate a real-life example of how this choice might work out. In December of 2016 my wife and I had an opportunity to each open a Roth IRA. My wife took a partial sabbatical that year, and that, combined with maxing out our 401k accounts, gave us a chance to each open a $4,500 Roth IRA. The maximum allowable contribution that year was $6,500 for those 50 and over. Up until then we had assumed that our marginal tax bracket would likely be lower in retirement, and focused on contributing to our employer’s traditional 401k plans. Despite that, we decided to move forward with opening a Roth IRA. I thought it would give us some tax diversity, and the opportunity to do Roth conversions when, and if, it made sense in the future.  In December of 2016 we opened Roth IRAs at Vanguard and invested the $4,500 in their S&P 500 Index Fund. Those initial funds have been invested for almost 10 years. Over that decade we have added some additional funds, and have done a few conversions. I recently did a quick analysis to see how my Roth experience would have compared to investing in a traditional IRA.   In 2016, our marginal tax bracket was 28%.  To contribute the $4,500 required $6,250 of pre-tax income. Due to some financial engineering over the last year, including selling our second home in late 2025, I expect our 2026 marginal tax bracket to stay within the 12% bracket. I’ve been looking at this closely because I’m considering doing a Roth conversion later this year. The table below shows the comparison between the Roth performance, and what a traditional IRA would have produced. The annual rate of return was determined using Nick Maggiulli’s S&P 500 Historical Return Calculator. Roth vs Traditional The table shows that the Traditional IRA would have been the better choice, producing about $3,500 more in available funds, or about 22% more. This demonstrates that the primary driver in choosing between a Roth and a traditional qualified account is a consideration of the tax rates at the time of contribution and at the time of distribution. There have been a number of changes to the tax code in the last decade that have contributed to the result, but I certainly didn’t predict any of them.  If you guess wrong, you pay the price in a higher tax bill. In the example above, the extra $1,750 invested in the traditional account produced an additional $6,143.31 in earnings. The lower tax rate at the distribution of the traditional IRA results in the $3,500 in extra funds. Even though the Roth IRA had tax free earnings growth, the initial larger tax rate overcame that advantage, when compared to the traditional IRA.   Because of my pension and my wife’s social security benefit, 85% of her social security benefit is taxable income, so that is not a consideration in our tax calculation. I used Dinkytown’s 1040 Calculator to run a series of estimates of our 2026 tax return to assess if we want to execute a Roth Conversion this year. We are still 4 years from taking RMDs, and I will start my Social Security in a year when I turn 70. My current thinking is a conversion of about $40,000 will keep us in the 12% bracket. There would also be a small NJ state tax impact. My simple analysis reinforces what I’ve been taught. Roth contributions make the most sense when you think your current tax bracket is lower than when you expect to withdrawal the funds. There are secondary considerations, like no tax diversification, no RMDs, and uncertainty about future tax rates. If you intend to pass the funds to heirs, it might make sense to perform Roth conversions today at the 22% tax bracket if you intend to pass these accounts to heirs who may be in their peak earnings years. Not sure? I believe I recall several HumbleDollar contributors write something about splitting the difference?   Richard Connor is a semi-retired aerospace engineer with a keen interest in finance. He enjoys a wide variety of other interests, including chasing grandkids, space, sports, travel, winemaking and reading. Follow Rick on Twitter @RConnor609 and check out his earlier articles.
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Inflation Hedge

THE OPEN KITCHEN restaurant has been a fixture in Charlotte, North Carolina for 75 years. The restaurant has an old-time feel, with memorabilia, including menus from years gone by, lining its walls. Those old menus provided David Enna, a financial journalist, with a laboratory for examining the effects of inflation. What did Enna find? The oldest menu on display is from 1963. To state the obvious, today’s prices make those from the 1960s look quaint. Back then, spaghetti and meatballs cost just $1.10. Today, it’s $15.50. But, as Enna points out, that was more than 60 years ago, so increases are to be expected. Over the past 60 years, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) has averaged 3.8% per year. That isn’t unreasonable, especially since that average includes the 1970s, when inflation sometimes topped 10%. What’s of more concern, though, is what consumers have experienced more recently. Since 2020, prices across the economy have risen 29%. And though those increases have slowed, the Fed is still struggling to ratchet inflation back to its preferred 2% level. This has given investors renewed interest in strategies to defend against inflation. At first glance, this doesn’t seem like it should be such a difficult problem. The U.S. Treasury offers an investment specifically designed for this purpose: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS). These are bonds that are guaranteed by the federal government to increase in value with inflation. And though I hesitate to use the words “bond” and “exciting” in the same sentence, today many investors are finding the return on TIPS compelling. The 30-year TIPS is now paying close to 3% on top of inflation. If inflation averages 2.5%, for example, over the next 30 years, this bond will end up returning a total of 5.5% per year, and with minimal risk. That sounds good in theory, but do these bonds make sense for your portfolio? It’s worth taking a closer look. The first thing to note is that this seemingly attractive 3% yield only applies to 30-year TIPS. Yields on shorter-term bonds are lower. So unless your investment horizon happens to be exactly 30 years, these bonds may be of limited practical value. Putting aside the yield question, though, a more fundamental challenge with individual TIPS—and individual bonds in general—is that they’re a cumbersome way to build a portfolio. Even if you didn’t mind the process of buying bonds one by one, which can be tedious, there’s the fact that it’s hard for most people to be able to forecast their cash flow needs each year into the future. That’s a problem because choosing maturity dates is the foundation on which bond portfolios are built. Ideally, if you can align the maturity dates of the bonds in your portfolio with your future cash needs, then you can hold bonds to maturity, which is when the issuer would promise to pay you back in full. But that redemption value is guaranteed only at maturity. Buy a 20-year bond and sell it after just 10 years, and there are no guarantees. A bondholder could easily lose money selling an individual bond before maturity. Given these challenges, would a TIPS fund be a better choice? To be sure, bond funds are much simpler to purchase and to manage, but they typically offer even less protection from losses than individual bonds. Most recently, shareholders in TIPS funds were disappointed by how they performed in 2022, when inflation spiked to 9%. Investors expected that to be the year when TIPS rewarded investors, but instead, diversified TIPS funds such as the Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities Fund (ticker: VAIPX) lost nearly 12%. Why did funds like this fare so poorly when inflation was running so high? The problem is that, at the end of the day, TIPS are still bonds. And though they receive a bump in value when inflation rises, a countervailing force is that they lose value when interest rates rise. In 2022, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates aggressively to fight inflation. The negative impact from those rate increases far outweighed the benefit TIPS received from inflation being higher. That puts investors in a difficult position. If TIPS provide inflation protection in theory, but both individual TIPS and TIPS funds carry limitations, what other options are there? The good news is that not all TIPS funds are the same. Some hold only short-term bonds, and they have historically held up much better than more broadly diversified TIPS funds because short-term bonds are more resilient when interest rates rise. Over the past five years, a fund like Vanguard’s Short-Term Inflation-Protected Securities ETF (ticker: VTIP) has outperformed a comparable fund (ticker: VGSH) holding standard short-term Treasury bonds every year, as well as this year to-date. It’s important to note, though, that this is relative performance. In 2022, when the entire bond market was under pressure, even short-term TIPS funds like VTIP did still lose money. They just lost less than funds holding conventional bonds. The bottom line: We should never become too wedded to any one strategy. No investment can promise reliable and complete protection against inflation in every market scenario. That said, I do still recommend TIPS and would specifically recommend a short-term fund like VTIP. But I also suggest taking a diversified approach to inflation protection. Here are other steps to consider. If you’re in your 60s and considering when to claim Social Security, that decision offers a powerful lever. Because Social Security benefits increase with inflation and also increase with each year you delay claiming, it’s maybe the most effective way to build additional inflation protection into your plan. What else can you do? Fortunately, you may already own one of the most effective—and underappreciated—inflation-fighting instruments: stocks. While rising prices in recent years have been frustrating for consumers, the result has been that companies have been able to maintain their profit margins. That, in turn, has helped to support their stock prices through this period of inflation. To be sure, some companies have more of an ability to raise prices than others, but overall, stocks are, in my view, a good way to keep pace with inflation. The one thing I wouldn’t do is to buy gold. Despite its reputation, various studies have confirmed that gold really isn’t a reliable inflation hedge. In a paper titled “The Golden Dilemma,” researchers wrote: “Over practical investment horizons, gold is an unreliable inflation hedge,” though they acknowledge that it may be more reliable over longer timeframes—“if the investment horizon is measured in centuries.”   Adam M. Grossman is the founder of Mayport, a fixed-fee wealth management firm. Sign up for Adam's Daily Ideas email, follow him on X @AdamMGrossman and check out his earlier articles.  
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Bad Maths, Good Fire.

"One part of living well, in my opinion!"
- Dave Melick
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You Heel!

"We visited Nova Scotia in May. We pretty much apologized for the adversarial political behavior whenever we were forced to disclose we were from the US. The uniform reply was something to the effect that "we know it's not you, because we used to visit there a lot, and everyone is so nice"."
- Jeff Bond
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A Place At The Table

"Yes, Andrew (and everyone), traveling while young shouldn’t be limited to those from well-off families but it takes an open mind on the part of the parents to let their children travel with non-family members, plus dedicated teachers or coaches to organize the fundraising. But it’s true that such trips, whether they are for sightseeing, attending classes or engaging in some kind of helping project, are life changing for the kids, usually teenagers."
- Linda Grady
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Blood Money

"I agree with you about KO but XOM is involved in climate deception since it knew about global warming risks 60 years ago and ranks as one of the top global greenhouse gas polluters."
- Nick Politakis
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Americans and their credit cards

"More than 60% of Americans self-report in surveys that they live needing their next paycheck to cover their monthly bills. This may be more a reflection of the economic pressure that working Americans feel at the gas pump, grocery store and doctor's office. A study by Bankrate instead placed that P-to-P figure at 34%, and pointed out the varying definitions of the term "paycheck to paycheck." The Federal Reserve found that 54% of American households have emergency savings to cover three months of expenses, which means of course that almost half do not. However, the fanciful idea that the lowest income quartile can lift themselves out with "prudence" would only be publicly expressed by someone who has never seriously conversed with a member of that quartile. One morning -- just one -- of volunteer work at one's local food bank would promptly dismiss that idea forever, but one must be willing to expose oneself to real life for that to happen."
- Mike Gaynes
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The Intentional Spendthrift

"I totally agree Andrews. Once the plane’s wheels touch down at our destination it’s do whatever we want to do and the cost is what it is. We don’t give it one thought. We are truly blessed to be in this situation. Next week we are heading to the UK and have prepaid for flights, hotels, trains, and entrance fees. Those are the expensive components of vacation, and already paid for. After that it’s primarily food which usually involves a big breakfast at the hotel (more often the not included in the hotel bill already paid), a snack during the day, and then dinner. So the main cost when we arrive is just dinner."
- DavidHLancaster
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Feeling TIPSy?

NOT TOO LONG ago, Treasury Inflation Protected Security (TIPS) was a relatively obscure investment for safe long-term fixed-income investments. For the first twenty years of the new century, consumer prices were mostly stable or rising at a too-slow-to-notice rate. Why bother with anything related to inflation? Sadly, persistently low inflation made us complacent on the biggest long-term risk of bond investments -- the insidious unexpected inflation that robs us of the purchasing power of our “safe” investments. Yes, let’s not forget that the biggest risk of bond or bond-like investments is unexpected inflation. Any bond or CD with a maturity beyond a few years must either offer a sufficiently high interest rate to compensate for sudden bouts of inflation, or have its principal adjusted for the inflation actually realized. The former is nearly impossible to find without sacrificing safety. The latter is what TIPS is for. To be clear, the market and investors always expect some level of inflation. Therefore, a bond’s effective interest rate - measured by its YTM (Yield to Maturity) - must be high enough to not only compensate for “expected” inflation and the uncertainties around it but also provide a meaningful increase in the purchasing power of the original principal.  A concrete example might help. Consider a 10-year US Treasury nominal bond with a face value of $1,000, selling at $1,000 and paying 5% annual interest. The interest rate reflects the expectations about inflation and other factors over the next 10 years. The rate would be lower if market expected lower inflation, and higher if market expected the opposite. The omnipresence of inflation means we’re likely to lose some purchasing power when we get our $1,000 in 10 years. It won’t buy what $1,000 buys today. By how much? That’s the thousand dollars question (pun intended).  There isn’t a readily available number that explains why that 10-year Treasury Bond yields 5% instead of 3% or 7%. Investors essentially take a leap of faith that annual inflation stays low enough over the 10-year period for the interim interests to compensate for the purchasing power loss, plus some changes. Most of us are perfectly comfortable assuming that inflation won’t be as high as 5% for 10 years. But are we fooling ourselves? I suggest using an inflation calculator to see for ourselves. Spoiler alert: Late 1960s through early 1980s can be an eye-opening period. How’d we feel if the next 10 years turn out to be something similar? Think about how you might feel when you safekeep your money in a so-called secure investment, give up higher returns available from risky investments, and then encounter an inflationary regime. Your minimum expectation was that your purchasing power would remain intact and perhaps improve a little by the time your bond matures. Instead, unforeseen inflation erodes your purchasing power and compromises the financial goal the fund was supposed to cover.  Your “safe” investment fails you completely. You realize that it wasn’t safe at all.  If unexpected inflation is so devastating, why are we so lax about it?  I can think of two reasons.  First, our minds haven’t adapted to the reality that, unlike to a “real” asset like a bag of rice or a gallon of gasoline, money in its current form is inherently self-eroding. It slowly loses its worth over time. A hundred dollars sitting around will still be a hundred dollars next year, but it won’t buy the same amount. We don’t intuitively perceive the continuous loss of purchasing power. Even when we do internalize it with some effort, we get used to the “pace” of the loss. In other words, we view inflation as steady and unexpected inflation as highly unlikely. Alas, all it takes is a single prolonged inflationary period to change that perception. By then, however, the damage to existing fixed income investments may already be done. Frankly, I’d be very wary of keeping my long-term “safe” money -- fund that I need to preserve beyond a three-year horizon - in any form that isn’t protected against unexpected inflation. For bond investments, the most meaningful option would be TIPS. Why? Because, in addition to being secured by the full faith and credit of the US Government just like any other Treasury securities, TIPS provides three important assurances upfront. First, it provides protection against unexpected inflation, which is a realized inflation that differs from what we expected when purchasing it. If the actual inflation averages 12% instead of the expected 2%, the principal is automatically adjusted to reflect the actual inflation. No guesswork or unexpected risk involved. Second, it provides a “real interest rate” upfront that tells us how much the purchasing power of the investment will increase over time, regardless of what the actual inflation turns out to be. Buying a 10-year TIPS with real 2% annual interest means the investment’s purchasing power will grow 2% per year over the holding period, before considering taxes and other factors. The third aspect is more nuanced. It involves the possibility of inflation being lower than expected, or even negative inflation (aka deflation). Let me elaborate. If a regular nominal 10-year Treasury Bond offers 5% annual yield and an equivalent TIPS offers a real annual interest rate of 2.75%, the market-implied inflation, the breakeven inflation rate, is roughly 2.25% (5% minus 2.75%). Actual inflation, of course, will be known only after 10 years when the bond matures. Suppose the actual inflation turns out to be only 1.25%. The nominal Bond investor would end up with more purchasing power than the TIPS investor because the TIPS principle would be adjusted by only the actual 1.25% inflation rate.  The primary objective of the TIPS investor would still have been met: preserving and improving purchasing power by about 2.75% annually. But there would be a “missed opportunity”. The nominal Treasury investor would end up with even greater purchasing power. Does it mean that a TIPS investor can face an unlimited opportunity cost if inflation turns out to be negative? What happens if the actual inflation is, hypothetically speaking, negative 5%, in a severely deflationary period? Does the TIPS investor get back proportionately reduced principal at maturity? Thanks to the third assurance of TIPS, the answer is NO.  TIPS guarantees that the principal returned at maturity will never fall below the original face value. During periods of deflation, the inflation-adjusted principal can fall below its face value and the interim interest payments will decline accordingly. But at maturity, the principal is floored at the original principal amount. Therefore, the breakeven inflation rate, the difference between the yield of a nominal Treasury bond and the real yield of an equivalent TIPS, represents the maximum annual yield advantage that the nominal bond can have over TIPS in an unexpectedly low inflation regime.  To summarize, a TIPS investor gets unlimited protection against unexpectedly high inflation, while accepting a limited opportunity cost should the actual inflation be low or even negative. The magnitude of that trade-off is reflected in the breakeven inflation rate at the time of the TIPS purchase.  An aside: given the destructive impact of deflation on economy and society, policy makers are generally more concerned about preventing prolonged deflation than about preventing modest inflation. Therefore, prolonged deflation is usually considered less likely. Still, we cannot ignore deflation risk altogether and should be prepared for the possibility that TIPS can underperform a nominal bond if inflation runs low.  Therefore, the decision to favor TIPS over an equivalent nominal Bond hinges in part on the current breakeven inflation rate. If it’s low enough, favoring TIPS can be an easy decision. Getting unlimited protection against unexpectedly high inflation is worth accepting the relatively small opportunity cost if inflation comes below the breakeven rate. There is, however, a cautionary note about buying TIPS bonds in the secondary market, especially older issues. Consider a 30-year TIPS bond issued 20 years ago and a 10-year TIPS issued within last 6 months. Both might appear to be valid choices if they mature within a few months of each other and offer similar yields. But beneath the surface, one may be more favorable than the other.  The older TIPS will likely have a much higher inflation-adjusted principal because it accumulated 20 years of inflation adjustments. But the protection against unexpected deflation applies only to the bond’s original face value, which is typically $1,000.  In a prolonged deflationary period, the older bond has much more room for its inflation-adjusted principal to decline before reaching the $1,000 floor. The newer issue, whose adjusted principal is much closer to the $1,000 face value, has less exposure to this risk. Therefore, all else being equal, I’d favor a TIPS with a low inflation-adjusted factor when buying in the secondary market. All things considered, my vote goes to TIPS for long-term “safe” investments, provided the break-even inflation is reasonably low. For secondary market purchases, however, a high inflation-adjustment factor would give me pause.   Sanjib Saha retired early from software engineering to dedicate more time to family and friends, pursue personal development and assist others as a money wellness mentor. Self-taught in investments, he passed the Series 65 licensing exam as a non-industry candidate. Sanjib is the president and cofounder of Dollar Mentor, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization offering free investment and financial education. Follow his nonprofit on LinkedIn, and check out Sanjib’s earlier articles.
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On the Road to Home

WHEN MOST PEOPLE retire, they have a good idea where they’ll live. It might be where they currently reside, or where they vacation, or a place near their children or grandchildren. Whatever the case, there’s usually a limited number of possibilities.

But what if you move to a new city for the last two years of your working life, never vacation in the same place twice, don’t own a vacation home, are childless and—upon retirement—sell your home, sell most of your stuff, pack the rest in a POD and then travel the world for the next year?

In that scenario, which just happens to be one that my wife and I found ourselves in, the world is a blank canvas and identifying a new home becomes just a little more complicated.

One option could have been to review articles such as Kiplinger’s “The Best Places to Retire in the World,” and then plan accordingly. Or maybe a spreadsheet could be created that compares different locations. But instead, Susan and I decided to take a less analytical and more Kerouacian approach. We would hit the road, man, and personally interview cities until one made the scene. Can you dig it?

We, of course, were looking for that perfect candidate—you know, the one with low taxes, modest housing costs, reasonable cost of living, great culture, James Beard award-winning restaurants, outstanding health care and an airport with direct flights to Paris, Tokyo and Hawaii.

I was immediately attracted to cities in Alaska, Florida, Nevada, South Dakota, Texas, Washington and Wyoming for the obvious reason: taxes. All but Washington were summarily dismissed due to the increased possibility of heat stroke, frost bite or cabin fever. Even Washington was eventually overlooked, because we never made it that far west.

After touring cities like Ann Arbor and Boulder, I realized that the successful candidate needed a certain amount of grit. Not too much, as there is a fine line between “urban lifestyle” and some half-naked guy screaming obscenities in the middle of the street. I wanted a dynamic interaction of races and cultures, access to decent pizza and some city noise. Not necessarily the sound of gun shots, but maybe a siren every now and again.

In our search for grit, Detroit was interviewed. The city had fallen on hard times and therefore I thought it might make for a strong candidate. It had a decent tax structure, though with much more sprawl than I imagined. The downtown had bottomed out a few years earlier, and was now filled with activity and a significant number of cranes.

In fact, the area was becoming quite fashionable. As it turns out, maybe too fashionable, as real estate prices were soaring. I also happened to interview Pulitzer-prize-winning, man-on-the-street journalist Charlie LeDuff, who informed me that much of the “new” Detroit was a facade, built on debt and endemic corruption.

Denver looked quite promising, with a good tax structure, some grit and no humidity. Unfortunately, the word was out, and property values reflected it, plus it was too late in life to learn to ski or develop a daily skin-care regimen.

[caption id="attachment_1540498" align="alignright" width="400"] Pittsburgh, another city the Flacks didn't choose[/caption]

Pittsburgh also looked promising, with affordable real estate, cultural offerings and a fair amount of grit. It’s actually quite picturesque and ranked as the second most “livable city in the U.S.” by The Economist. We visited in the fall and the weather was decent, though locals informed us the winter can be a little “chilly,” with more than a little “precipitation.” And, oh yeah, air quality could be an issue. Still, it was shortlisted.

It was starting to get a little cold, so I figured a little southern sojourn was in order. Savannah was purely an informational interview. I knew going in that it wouldn’t make the cut. Yes, it’s easy to fall in love with the place: the food, the hospitality, the city squares and the laid back way of life. I even found myself looking at real estate. But then a few days of warm, humid weather set me straight, reminding me of my two years in Houston: the four months of fall never made up for the eight months of summer.

After a stopover in Texas to vote, we decided to hunker down in Kansas City to ride out the pandemic. While the tax structure in the Paris of the Plains wasn’t optimal, housing costs were quite reasonable, it had good health care and everybody was really, really nice.

[caption id="attachment_1540497" align="alignright" width="400"] Kansas City, where the wandering Flacks finally settled[/caption]

We ended up falling in love with the neighborhood where we were staying. It had a small town feel, but was located a five-minute walk from a downtown area, and it offered the perfect amount of grit. Unfortunately, none of the houses we looked at was worthy.

But then, just as the interview was drawing to a close, we came across a modern townhouse condo filled with light, a dramatic three-story staircase and an owner who was in a hurry to sell. In the end, the specific house and neighborhood were the deciding factors. Also, it may have been that the road was getting just a little old and we were hankering to put down some roots.

Looking for the perfect retirement location is much like investing in the stock market. All the information is very public, with a never-ending discussion in The Wall Street Journal, Kiplinger and a sizable portion of the internet. Result? Finding that income-tax-free beach community, offering low property taxes, low home values and low cost of living, plus a symphony hall and the Mayo Clinic nearby, is much like finding that wide moat, high-yield, increasing dividend, tax-advantaged security that’s selling at a 13% discount.

You may wonder about the one criterion I didn’t mention during the interview process: politics. When I once mentioned the desire to live in San Francisco, a friend dismissed it as “too liberal.” I agree. But I’d live there in a New York minute if it weren't for the ridiculous cost of living. Before some of you say “exactly,” one thing I learned during the interview process: Almost every city of any size leans just a little to that side of the political spectrum. If you want urban, it comes with the territory.

Michael Flack blogs at AfterActionReport.info. He’s a former naval officer and 20-year veteran of the oil and gas industry. Now retired, Mike enjoys traveling, blogging and spreadsheets. Check out his earlier articles. [xyz-ihs snippet="Donate"]
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This would be a great posting on a web site with the name “HaughtyDollar.”

"Had a great time with Google AI this morning. Just type in: defensive attribution theory, hardship-induced punitiveness, and the "just world" fallacy and the writings of richard quinn at humble dollar points and counterpoints. Then of course, put your own name in or other names! I read about the phenomenon back at college, apparently quite important to know during jury selection. I enjoy Mr. Quinn‘s posts quite a bit, keep it coming. Ever been selected for jury duty? Just asking..fugidaboudit, fellow New Joisian here. All the best!"
- Sean Mooney
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Traditional or Roth

THE CHOICE BETWEEN a traditional retirement account or a Roth is a frequent topic on HumbleDollar. The choice is generally framed as a choice between paying taxes up front (a Roth), or deferring taxes until withdrawal (traditional). I thought it would be interesting to evaluate a real-life example of how this choice might work out. In December of 2016 my wife and I had an opportunity to each open a Roth IRA. My wife took a partial sabbatical that year, and that, combined with maxing out our 401k accounts, gave us a chance to each open a $4,500 Roth IRA. The maximum allowable contribution that year was $6,500 for those 50 and over. Up until then we had assumed that our marginal tax bracket would likely be lower in retirement, and focused on contributing to our employer’s traditional 401k plans. Despite that, we decided to move forward with opening a Roth IRA. I thought it would give us some tax diversity, and the opportunity to do Roth conversions when, and if, it made sense in the future.  In December of 2016 we opened Roth IRAs at Vanguard and invested the $4,500 in their S&P 500 Index Fund. Those initial funds have been invested for almost 10 years. Over that decade we have added some additional funds, and have done a few conversions. I recently did a quick analysis to see how my Roth experience would have compared to investing in a traditional IRA.   In 2016, our marginal tax bracket was 28%.  To contribute the $4,500 required $6,250 of pre-tax income. Due to some financial engineering over the last year, including selling our second home in late 2025, I expect our 2026 marginal tax bracket to stay within the 12% bracket. I’ve been looking at this closely because I’m considering doing a Roth conversion later this year. The table below shows the comparison between the Roth performance, and what a traditional IRA would have produced. The annual rate of return was determined using Nick Maggiulli’s S&P 500 Historical Return Calculator. Roth vs Traditional The table shows that the Traditional IRA would have been the better choice, producing about $3,500 more in available funds, or about 22% more. This demonstrates that the primary driver in choosing between a Roth and a traditional qualified account is a consideration of the tax rates at the time of contribution and at the time of distribution. There have been a number of changes to the tax code in the last decade that have contributed to the result, but I certainly didn’t predict any of them.  If you guess wrong, you pay the price in a higher tax bill. In the example above, the extra $1,750 invested in the traditional account produced an additional $6,143.31 in earnings. The lower tax rate at the distribution of the traditional IRA results in the $3,500 in extra funds. Even though the Roth IRA had tax free earnings growth, the initial larger tax rate overcame that advantage, when compared to the traditional IRA.   Because of my pension and my wife’s social security benefit, 85% of her social security benefit is taxable income, so that is not a consideration in our tax calculation. I used Dinkytown’s 1040 Calculator to run a series of estimates of our 2026 tax return to assess if we want to execute a Roth Conversion this year. We are still 4 years from taking RMDs, and I will start my Social Security in a year when I turn 70. My current thinking is a conversion of about $40,000 will keep us in the 12% bracket. There would also be a small NJ state tax impact. My simple analysis reinforces what I’ve been taught. Roth contributions make the most sense when you think your current tax bracket is lower than when you expect to withdrawal the funds. There are secondary considerations, like no tax diversification, no RMDs, and uncertainty about future tax rates. If you intend to pass the funds to heirs, it might make sense to perform Roth conversions today at the 22% tax bracket if you intend to pass these accounts to heirs who may be in their peak earnings years. Not sure? I believe I recall several HumbleDollar contributors write something about splitting the difference?   Richard Connor is a semi-retired aerospace engineer with a keen interest in finance. He enjoys a wide variety of other interests, including chasing grandkids, space, sports, travel, winemaking and reading. Follow Rick on Twitter @RConnor609 and check out his earlier articles.
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Inflation Hedge

THE OPEN KITCHEN restaurant has been a fixture in Charlotte, North Carolina for 75 years. The restaurant has an old-time feel, with memorabilia, including menus from years gone by, lining its walls. Those old menus provided David Enna, a financial journalist, with a laboratory for examining the effects of inflation. What did Enna find? The oldest menu on display is from 1963. To state the obvious, today’s prices make those from the 1960s look quaint. Back then, spaghetti and meatballs cost just $1.10. Today, it’s $15.50. But, as Enna points out, that was more than 60 years ago, so increases are to be expected. Over the past 60 years, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) has averaged 3.8% per year. That isn’t unreasonable, especially since that average includes the 1970s, when inflation sometimes topped 10%. What’s of more concern, though, is what consumers have experienced more recently. Since 2020, prices across the economy have risen 29%. And though those increases have slowed, the Fed is still struggling to ratchet inflation back to its preferred 2% level. This has given investors renewed interest in strategies to defend against inflation. At first glance, this doesn’t seem like it should be such a difficult problem. The U.S. Treasury offers an investment specifically designed for this purpose: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS). These are bonds that are guaranteed by the federal government to increase in value with inflation. And though I hesitate to use the words “bond” and “exciting” in the same sentence, today many investors are finding the return on TIPS compelling. The 30-year TIPS is now paying close to 3% on top of inflation. If inflation averages 2.5%, for example, over the next 30 years, this bond will end up returning a total of 5.5% per year, and with minimal risk. That sounds good in theory, but do these bonds make sense for your portfolio? It’s worth taking a closer look. The first thing to note is that this seemingly attractive 3% yield only applies to 30-year TIPS. Yields on shorter-term bonds are lower. So unless your investment horizon happens to be exactly 30 years, these bonds may be of limited practical value. Putting aside the yield question, though, a more fundamental challenge with individual TIPS—and individual bonds in general—is that they’re a cumbersome way to build a portfolio. Even if you didn’t mind the process of buying bonds one by one, which can be tedious, there’s the fact that it’s hard for most people to be able to forecast their cash flow needs each year into the future. That’s a problem because choosing maturity dates is the foundation on which bond portfolios are built. Ideally, if you can align the maturity dates of the bonds in your portfolio with your future cash needs, then you can hold bonds to maturity, which is when the issuer would promise to pay you back in full. But that redemption value is guaranteed only at maturity. Buy a 20-year bond and sell it after just 10 years, and there are no guarantees. A bondholder could easily lose money selling an individual bond before maturity. Given these challenges, would a TIPS fund be a better choice? To be sure, bond funds are much simpler to purchase and to manage, but they typically offer even less protection from losses than individual bonds. Most recently, shareholders in TIPS funds were disappointed by how they performed in 2022, when inflation spiked to 9%. Investors expected that to be the year when TIPS rewarded investors, but instead, diversified TIPS funds such as the Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities Fund (ticker: VAIPX) lost nearly 12%. Why did funds like this fare so poorly when inflation was running so high? The problem is that, at the end of the day, TIPS are still bonds. And though they receive a bump in value when inflation rises, a countervailing force is that they lose value when interest rates rise. In 2022, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates aggressively to fight inflation. The negative impact from those rate increases far outweighed the benefit TIPS received from inflation being higher. That puts investors in a difficult position. If TIPS provide inflation protection in theory, but both individual TIPS and TIPS funds carry limitations, what other options are there? The good news is that not all TIPS funds are the same. Some hold only short-term bonds, and they have historically held up much better than more broadly diversified TIPS funds because short-term bonds are more resilient when interest rates rise. Over the past five years, a fund like Vanguard’s Short-Term Inflation-Protected Securities ETF (ticker: VTIP) has outperformed a comparable fund (ticker: VGSH) holding standard short-term Treasury bonds every year, as well as this year to-date. It’s important to note, though, that this is relative performance. In 2022, when the entire bond market was under pressure, even short-term TIPS funds like VTIP did still lose money. They just lost less than funds holding conventional bonds. The bottom line: We should never become too wedded to any one strategy. No investment can promise reliable and complete protection against inflation in every market scenario. That said, I do still recommend TIPS and would specifically recommend a short-term fund like VTIP. But I also suggest taking a diversified approach to inflation protection. Here are other steps to consider. If you’re in your 60s and considering when to claim Social Security, that decision offers a powerful lever. Because Social Security benefits increase with inflation and also increase with each year you delay claiming, it’s maybe the most effective way to build additional inflation protection into your plan. What else can you do? Fortunately, you may already own one of the most effective—and underappreciated—inflation-fighting instruments: stocks. While rising prices in recent years have been frustrating for consumers, the result has been that companies have been able to maintain their profit margins. That, in turn, has helped to support their stock prices through this period of inflation. To be sure, some companies have more of an ability to raise prices than others, but overall, stocks are, in my view, a good way to keep pace with inflation. The one thing I wouldn’t do is to buy gold. Despite its reputation, various studies have confirmed that gold really isn’t a reliable inflation hedge. In a paper titled “The Golden Dilemma,” researchers wrote: “Over practical investment horizons, gold is an unreliable inflation hedge,” though they acknowledge that it may be more reliable over longer timeframes—“if the investment horizon is measured in centuries.”   Adam M. Grossman is the founder of Mayport, a fixed-fee wealth management firm. Sign up for Adam's Daily Ideas email, follow him on X @AdamMGrossman and check out his earlier articles.  
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Bad Maths, Good Fire.

"One part of living well, in my opinion!"
- Dave Melick
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You Heel!

"We visited Nova Scotia in May. We pretty much apologized for the adversarial political behavior whenever we were forced to disclose we were from the US. The uniform reply was something to the effect that "we know it's not you, because we used to visit there a lot, and everyone is so nice"."
- Jeff Bond
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A Place At The Table

"Yes, Andrew (and everyone), traveling while young shouldn’t be limited to those from well-off families but it takes an open mind on the part of the parents to let their children travel with non-family members, plus dedicated teachers or coaches to organize the fundraising. But it’s true that such trips, whether they are for sightseeing, attending classes or engaging in some kind of helping project, are life changing for the kids, usually teenagers."
- Linda Grady
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Blood Money

"I agree with you about KO but XOM is involved in climate deception since it knew about global warming risks 60 years ago and ranks as one of the top global greenhouse gas polluters."
- Nick Politakis
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Americans and their credit cards

"More than 60% of Americans self-report in surveys that they live needing their next paycheck to cover their monthly bills. This may be more a reflection of the economic pressure that working Americans feel at the gas pump, grocery store and doctor's office. A study by Bankrate instead placed that P-to-P figure at 34%, and pointed out the varying definitions of the term "paycheck to paycheck." The Federal Reserve found that 54% of American households have emergency savings to cover three months of expenses, which means of course that almost half do not. However, the fanciful idea that the lowest income quartile can lift themselves out with "prudence" would only be publicly expressed by someone who has never seriously conversed with a member of that quartile. One morning -- just one -- of volunteer work at one's local food bank would promptly dismiss that idea forever, but one must be willing to expose oneself to real life for that to happen."
- Mike Gaynes
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The Intentional Spendthrift

"I totally agree Andrews. Once the plane’s wheels touch down at our destination it’s do whatever we want to do and the cost is what it is. We don’t give it one thought. We are truly blessed to be in this situation. Next week we are heading to the UK and have prepaid for flights, hotels, trains, and entrance fees. Those are the expensive components of vacation, and already paid for. After that it’s primarily food which usually involves a big breakfast at the hotel (more often the not included in the hotel bill already paid), a snack during the day, and then dinner. So the main cost when we arrive is just dinner."
- DavidHLancaster
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Manifesto

NO. 34: FIGURING out what we ought to do with our money is relatively easy. Getting ourselves to do it is hard. Victory goes not to the smartest, but to the most disciplined.

act

HIRE OTHERS TO do chores you dislike. For each of us, time—not money—is the ultimate limited resource. Research has found that those who use their money to buy time—by, say, hiring others to clean or do yardwork for them—report greater happiness. Why? These folks feel less time stressed, while also freeing up extra hours for activities they love.

Truths

NO. 97: IT’S HARD to say “no” to our adult children if they get into financial trouble—which is why we should try to raise money-savvy kids. But how? Set a good example. Talk regularly about your own finances. Tell your kids about your lean early adult years. Involve them in family financial decisions. Encourage them to save up for larger purchases.

think

HABIT FORMATION. To improve our behavior—financial and otherwise—we need to turn our desired good behavior into habits. That might require doing the right thing daily for perhaps two months. To get through this transition period, helpful strategies include sharing our resolutions with others, visualizing our goals and automating our savings program.

Basics

Manifesto

NO. 34: FIGURING out what we ought to do with our money is relatively easy. Getting ourselves to do it is hard. Victory goes not to the smartest, but to the most disciplined.

Spotlight: Charity

Not Dead Yet

FOR MY BIRTHDAY this year, my wife gave me a card that declares, “Not Dead Yet.” That might sound morbid, but I laughed. The reason: My wife had misinterpreted something I used to say to colleagues at my final job.
When they saw me at the coffee machine, they’d often ask, “How are you doing, Dave?”
Instead of saying “fine,” I used to say, “I’m still breathing. Count your blessings. Blessing No. 1: I’m still breathing.”
In many cases,

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From Mali With Love

FELLOW HUMBLEDOLLAR contributor Marjorie Kondrack concluded a recent article by saying she’d “never been to Paris or Prague, Timbuktu or Tokyo.” I had always thought of Timbuktu as an imaginary, faraway place. Only recently did I discover that it actually exists.
Timbuktu is a town in Mali with a population just north of 50,000 people. But according to Wikipedia, thanks to gold and salt that could be found in the area, it was once a “world-renowned trading powerhouse” with a population of 250,000.

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Christmas All Year

I GAVE THE BEST PEP talk I could muster, but it didn’t help. Our family of four entered Walmart in solidarity, planning to buy gifts to fill an Operation Christmas Child shoebox. Two of us left early in disarray.

I had to wrestle my screaming two-year-old all the way to the car because she knew only one way to approach the toy department—with herself in mind. Eliza melted down over her refusal to part with a cheap plastic toy.

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What are your favorite charities?

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Give Yourself a Gift

SEVERAL YEARS AGO, I had lunch with a longtime friend, Jim. Over the course of 30 years, he’s had a tremendous impact on my life through his wise counsel and fine example. That day, Jim wanted to treat me to lunch, but I stepped in front of him in line and paid for us. After I’d paid, I could see the disappointment in Jim’s face. He turned to the woman behind him and proceeded to pay for her lunch.

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Magic Number

MY MOM AND DAD split up when I was seven years old. Money was an issue for the rest of my childhood. Mom was rarely able to work fulltime and, according to her, child support and alimony were never enough.

When I started working a newspaper stand at age 12, I was expected to give 25% of my daily take for rent. Mom also demanded that I save at least 10%. Depending on the headlines,

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Spotlight: Rao

Dream Retirement – Is it fading away?

Jamie Dimon says, "The American dream is disappearing—and half the public no longer believes in it". Soaring costs of housing, child care, education, and health care are making it harder than ever for the middle class to achieve their dream. Pew research study found that while 64% of upper-income Americans say the American dream still exists, 39% of lower-income Americans say the same – a gap of 25 percentage points. About two-thirds of adults ages 65 and older (68%) say the American dream is still achievable, as do 61% of those 50 to 64.  By comparison, only about four-in-ten adults under 50 (42%) say it’s still possible for people to achieve the American dream. Many in their fifties are part of the "sandwich" generation, supporting their children as well as their parents or other elderly relatives. This takes a toll on their career, income levels and savings for retirement. Health care and long term care costs are constantly rising.  How could they hope for a  dream retirement? Even if one had diligently saved and invested over the years, unknown events can derail a retirement. A serious market downturn could affect you financially. It is not all about money, though. Serious health issues, loss of a spouse, divorce, children needing financial help, and many other unforeseen events can set back a happy retirement. While I have done a fair bit of thinking and preparation to have a happy retirement, nothing is certain. Evaluating potential unforeseen risks has been a challenge. How do you define your dream retirement? How will you prepare for it? Or just do the best you can, be flexible and go with the flow?
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Risks Retirees Face

WE’VE ALL HEARD THE maxim that “without risk, there’s no reward.” Over the years, we’ve all taken countless risks—big and small, financial and otherwise—to get to where we are today. Every activity has a risk associated with it, and that includes retirement. It’s best to be aware of these risks and, when prudent, take steps to limit them. Here are nine risks that retirees face. 1. Health. Even if we’re fortunate to enjoy a long, active retirement, our health may not be great in our later years. Alternatively, even if our own health holds up, our spouse may have medical issues. On top of that, we’ll likely face escalating health costs as we age. I’ve watched a friend move from independent living to assisted living to a nursing home to memory care. Each move was progressively more expensive. Good planning is needed to manage such life-changing events. 2. Longevity. I met a retiree at a party who said, “My mother passed away at 70 and my father at 72. The chance of me reaching my 90s is virtually nil. My plan is to spend more and enjoy life while it lasts.” A wise move? No matter what our family health history, it’s risky to assume we won’t enjoy a long life. And even if we don’t live to a ripe old age, our spouse may. 3. Market downturns. While the stock market has returned an average 10% a year over long stretches, a major drawdown of 20% or more could happen at any time. When we were young, we had many years to recoup such losses. But once we’re retired and drawing on our portfolio for spending money, our time horizon is often considerably shorter. A balanced portfolio of stocks and bonds can help reduce this risk. 4. Spending. We…
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More Than Money

I WAS FASCINATED with retirement planning during the final decade of my career. I read many financial books and focused on saving diligently. Yet, after retiring several months ago following a 39-year career as a research and development engineer, I had a rude awakening. You can plan all you want, but then comes an unexpected situation that derails everything. As boxer Mike Tyson famously said, “Everybody has plans until they get hit for the first time.” In the brief time I’ve been retired, I’ve quickly learned that money—despite being the centerpiece of most retirement literature—isn’t the sole answer to my retirement needs. Instead, there are many ingredients required for happiness. Several years ago, before retirement, my wife and I chose to sell our home, downsize and move to a 55-plus retirement community in Atlanta. Now, we’re in another such community in Tampa. From my perch, I’ve observed how seniors older than me, from their late 70s to early 90s, manage their lives. Some are just barely living, while others are thriving. What makes some resilient and happy, while others struggle? This is not an easy question to answer. Everyone’s situation is different, so there’s no standard prescription that’ll work for everyone. Still, based on what I’ve observed over the past few years and on my own experience over the past few months, I believe these four pillars, presented in order of importance, are crucial ingredients for a happy retirement: Health. Without health, retirement is a struggle. If one spouse has a health problem and the other functions as a caregiver, the entire retirement plan has to change. I know of several families in our 55-plus community where the children have assumed the burden of caregiving, with knock-on effects on their own families and careers. I’ve also seen people living alone…
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Signing up for pre-planned funeral services: Is it worth it?

The last few days have been hectic, attending a funeral for a friend as well as an information session by a local funeral home. I learned a lot from the presentation on funeral services. Pre-planned funerals can ease the burden on survivors. They claim it is cost effective by locking in current prices. Services these days can be extensive and cover death even on a cruise ship or a foreign country.  They also offer incentives (discounts, interest free payments) if you sign up now with a refundable deposit. Funeral home industry has consolidated with major players having multiple locations in many states. If you move to another state, they can still take care of  your funeral services there. I would assume many of you would have some experience arranging for funerals of relatives or friends. What are the pros and cons of signing up early for such pre-planned  funeral services? Is it worth it? Sundar Mohan Rao
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What life lessons would you like to pass on to the next generation?

After making progress on estate planning, documenting financial records, and updating family history, it suddenly occurred to me that I should make a list of life lessons I have learned along my life journey.   Obviously, these life lessons are a lot more than strictly financial, but certainly they will contribute to overall success and a fulfilling life for the next generation.   I came up with these and put them in a document along with my financial records. Hopefully, someday it will help the next generations in my family.  Here is my list of 10.   1. Live your own dreams, not someone else's 2. Believe and invest in yourself 3. Focus on health, family, financial security and a purpose larger than yourself 4. Be a lifelong learner 5. Be self aware and know who you are and what makes you tick 6. Learn from failures and keep moving 7. Be positive to overcome life's many challenges 8. Give to receive 9. Start small, think big 10. Leave everyone better than you found them   Everyone has different life experiences and value systems. What life lessons would you like to pass on to the next generation?      
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When should one give up control over finances?

Living in a 55+ community, I have heard about some elderly residents who have issues regarding unpaid bills, delayed payments, losing money in scams, and investing in high risk stocks. These residents were financially very savvy a few years ago and now they have difficulty keeping up. In some cases, their children have started handling their finances.   An article ( " Dollars and Dementia - An early warning system" in AARP Bulletin, December 2025 issue) points out this could be an early warning sign that their cognitive abilities are declining. A study, cited in this article, found that 7.4 million older adults with dementia or cognitive impairment were managing their household finances on their own.   Giving up financial control is a very hard thing to do. It is a highly emotional decision. I have seen children taking away car keys when parents cannot drive safely. This may be a lot easier than handing over financial control.   This study found that nearly 84% of survey respondents would not want to give up financial control at the onset of cognitive decline, preferring to wait for a moment before they would completely lose the ability to manage their own money.   What has been your experience dealing with such a situation? If you are a retiree, how will you prepare in advance so the transition is smooth, when the time comes?
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