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Carrying Humble Dollar Forward

"Andrew, What a wonderful piece, beautifully written."
- Andy Morrison
Read more »

Financial Tension

"It is a different kind of investment. 🙂"
- William Housley
Read more »

The condo, HOA, senior citizen conundrum

"I can see why people might be getting a little upset over the increase in the HOA monthly fee. It's approaching, in some instances I imagine, what they pay in property tax. The difference is that the HOA fee is directly re-invested in the place they live, while the property tax is not. I don't like paying $100 for an oil change, but it preserves the value of my car. I am less fond of paying $6000 for a new engine. Sometimes you need to pay a little (relatively) now to avoid paying a lot later. But some people are more about limiting the monthly budget than protecting/enhancing the long-term value of their assets."
- John Katz
Read more »

Staying Rational

IT'S BEEN MORE than six years since Covid first entered our vocabulary. It goes without saying that investors have experienced a lot, and for better or worse, recent market events provide some useful lessons. The first has to do with the nature of the stock market. What drives stock prices? Open a finance textbook, and the answer will be clear: The value of a stock should equal the sum of the company’s future profits. This idea is known as intrinsic value, and it’s the textbook explanation of how stock prices work. But there’s clearly a disconnect, since stock prices bounce around far more than the math suggests they should.  How can we square this circle? Over the long term, the data tell us that intrinsic value is a valid idea. Chart the price of any given stock, then overlay the company’s profits, and there will often be a reasonably close relationship. But only if you’re Rip Van Winkle. Over shorter periods of time, anything can happen. Stocks often move far above or far below their intrinsic values in response to the news of the day.  Especially during times of economic uncertainty, intrinsic value analysis is typically cast aside and replaced by some combination of emotion, conjecture, speculation and storytelling. That’s what we saw in the early months of 2020. Stores were closed, employees had been sent home and the economy went into recession. And since no one had a crystal ball, that’s when storytellers were able to step in with their extreme predictions, causing the stock market to drop more than 30% in the space of six weeks. The lesson for investors: No one can predict when the next crisis will roll around or what form it will take. But there is one very reasonable way to be able to keep it in perspective: by remembering that, at the end of the day, intrinsic value is what matters, and ultimately that’s what drives stock prices. Basic arithmetic illustrates how this can help us manage through the next crisis. Consider that the price-to-earnings ratio of the U.S. stock market has historically averaged around 16. The average company’s total stock market value, in other words, has been equal to about 16 times its annual profits.  Now let’s imagine that the next crisis results in every company in America losing an entire year of earnings. That’s extreme and hasn’t happened since the Depression, but it’s useful as a thought experiment. In that scenario, what would be the impact to those companies’ intrinsic value? In simple terms, it would be just one-sixteenth, or a modest 6%. What if a crisis were so severe that a company lost two years of earnings? Using this simple model, the impact would be about 12%. This is meaningful, I believe, because crises typically result in stock price declines that are far more severe than just 6% or 12%. In 2000 and in 2008, the market dropped more than 50%. While every crisis is different, I think it’s useful to keep these numbers in mind whenever the next geopolitical event causes stocks to drop. When that occurs, storytellers will inevitably take over, and the news will be downbeat. But if stocks drop to an extreme degree, as they have in the past, we can probably view it as an overreaction. That won’t help anyone’s portfolio recover any faster, but it should help us tune out the worst of the forecasters and maintain our equanimity. How else can you maintain an even keel during a market crisis? It’s important to understand the impact of recency bias. This bias is the tendency to extrapolate from current conditions, to assume that the future will look like the present, and to downplay the possibility that things might change. That tendency is what contributed to the cycle of negative news during the depths of 2020, and this is why I think it’s so important for investors to be aware of market history.  Again, extensive analysis isn’t required. We need only look back across some of the crises the country has weathered, from the Civil War to the Depression to World War II. In each case, the economy recovered and went on to become larger and stronger than before. The lesson for investors: In the depths of a crisis, it’s very difficult to know when or how it will end. But a sense of history can help carry us through. Those are ways to manage through a crisis. Covid also provided a lesson on how to prepare—specifically, how to prepare our portfolios—for a future downturn. In 2022, investors were caught flat-footed when popular total-bond market funds delivered surprising losses. These funds are one pillar of the well-known three-fund portfolio and have traditionally been viewed as the default choice for a set-it-and-forget-it bond allocation. But in 2022, when the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates, these funds dropped a surprising 13%. That was during the same year that the U.S. stock market dropped nearly 20%, creating a very difficult situation for those in retirement and needing to withdraw from their portfolios. The lesson for investors: Total-bond market funds may be well diversified, but they carry risk along another very important dimension known as duration. This is a bond metric that measures, in simple terms, how long it will take for bondholders to be repaid, and it’s a key determinant of risk. The longer the duration, the greater the risk of loss when rates rise. While total-bond market funds have holdings across a broad range of durations, they average out to nearly six years. That’s why they lost so much value in 2022. What’s the alternative? Short-term bond funds tend to have a duration in the neighborhood of just two years. As a result, in 2022, short-term government bond funds like Vanguard’s Short-Term Treasury ETF (ticker: VGSH) lost a far more manageable 4% of their value. To be sure, every crisis is different, and it’s easy to rationalize about the past once it’s in the past. But these lessons, I think, can help us better prepare both our emotions and our portfolios for whatever comes next.   Adam M. Grossman is the founder of Mayport, a fixed-fee wealth management firm. Sign up for Adam's Daily Ideas email, follow him on X @AdamMGrossman and check out his earlier articles.
Read more »

Penny Wise, Pound Foolish

"West Bend Poppery II off Ebay, and a bag of beans is all you need. I use a wooden spoon to agitate the beans to help move the chaff off. Roast outside. It gets smokey."
- Bob Steele
Read more »

A Life You Build

"Thank you for sharing your life story. We would do well to reflect on the lessons you have learned along the way. I particularly liked the bit about having flexibility with discipline, and the need for compassion."
- ram bala
Read more »

Navigating a Turbulent Career

A RECENT article by Adam Grossman relayed an interesting story of the 2015 merger of Kraft and Heinz.  One of the aspects that made this merger unique was the involvement of Warren Buffet. Adam’s story is a cautionary tale for investors – research shows that, more often than not, the hoped-for corporate synergies and growth are elusive. The story provides more evidence for the benefits of indexing to investors. There is, however, another side to this story that is very important to an individual’s personal financial life. In addition to being investors, most of us are, or were, employees of a corporation.  What if you are an employee of a company that is acquiring another company, being acquired by another company, or part of a merger?  How do you navigate the challenges of this significant career event? In late November 1985, I interviewed with RCA’s Astro Space division in East Windsor, NJ.  Several weeks later I interviewed with GE Aerospace in King of Prussia, PA.  In between those 2 interviews it was announced that GE was acquiring RCA. I received an offer for a position in the thermal engineering group of both companies. The GE offer was for $32,000, $4,000 more than the RCA offer.  The GE plant was about 8 miles from our home; the RCA plant was 62 miles from our home.   I accepted the GE offer.  When I called the RCA manager to tell him my decision, he was professional and understanding.  He remarked that “who knows, we may end up working together and you got a better deal out of it”. Four months later that RCA manager became the senior manager of the merged thermal engineering organization – my new boss’s boss. Seven years later my division was sold to Martin Marietta, whose space operations were based in Denver, CO. Two years later Martin Marietta merged with Lockheed, in Sunnyvale, CA, to form Lockheed Martin.  Later that year it was announced that the company was closing its 2 east coast plants and moving the work to Sunnyvale and Denver.   Over the 31 years starting in 1986, I was part of numerous acquisitions, mergers, two plant shut-downs, and being sold to a private equity company. Somehow, I managed to stay employed, and grow my career. I wasn’t special – hundreds of colleagues trod the same path. When I look back I can identify some of the attributes that helped me navigate a turbulent career. Build your Reputation: Be someone that people want to hire. If you move up, be someone that people want to work for. My first senior manager position came about because the hiring team remembered me from 4 years previous  Maintain Flexibility: Are you willing to travel or relocate? Would you take a lateral position, or even a step down, if it meant keeping a job?  During my career I traveled extensively, commuted 62 miles for four years, and took new positions that challenged me and my family.  Focus on your Skills: What are the skills and behaviors that are valued by your company, and differentiate successful employees? These include technical, leadership, managerial, and interpersonal skills. My first GE manager provided a sound technical base, but also taught me just as much about work ethic, and professionalism. Focus on the Culture:  Combing organizations means combining cultures, just as much as products or processes.  This may require you to be open to a different way of doing things. It requires a willingness to learn and grow.  It will also likely require some diplomacy skills.  Change is hard for employees, and nobody enjoys being told their processes or products are inferior.  When we merged with RCA, we found there was a significant difference in the way that managers and senior technical leaders challenged their employees in public forums, in front of customers.  GE preferred to work out technical differences and approaches in-house, and present a united front to customers. This took some time to resolve into a shared approach. Focus on the People:  When my first GE manager retired, we held a group luncheon. He was universally liked and respected.  Someone described him as the best “BTU chaser” he’d ever seen, which was high praise. He gave a short speech at his retirement, where he discussed the exciting space programs he had supported. He ended that the thing that made his career special wasn’t the projects and technology, it was the people.   I was also fortunate to work on some exciting, ground-breaking projects.  It wasn’t always easy, and the path certainly wasn’t straight.  Looking back, it is the people I think of most, and I miss the most.    Richard Connor is a semi-retired aerospace engineer with a keen interest in finance. He enjoys a wide variety of other interests, including chasing grandkids, space, sports, travel, winemaking and reading. Follow Rick on Twitter @RConnor609 and check out his earlier articles.
Read more »

Something to Think About

"This is an issue for an optimizer but not a satisficer. I'm more concerned with the total amount I convert each year than the timing. But I do have optimizer tendencies: I tend to leave maybe half or more of my Roth conversions for December so I can guess better and make my income near the top of the tax bracket and keep my capital gains in the 0% bracket."
- Randy Dobkin
Read more »

One Good Call?

"Jeremy. A very sharp observation, and it brings to mind that old saying: invert, always invert. To answer your question directly: no, I haven't analysed my wife's portfolio to that extent — and if I'm honest, I probably won't. She's determined to stay with the adviser, and I'm content with what we've achieved: a fee reduction and a new commitment to advise based on our total combined holdings rather than hers in isolation. Sometimes you have to know which hill to die on — and when to retreat with a partial victory."
- Mark Crothers
Read more »

What happens to Medicare Supplement coverage when moving to a different state?

"Triple check but I believe that the Medigap insurer you originally picked stays with you if you move to another county or state (and don't change plans or companies). A few states even allow you to change companies and/or plans without underwriting or higher premiums (community pricing). Each state has an 800 SHIP (State Health Insurance. Assistance Program)  hotline to connect you with knowledgeable folks."
- R Mancuso
Read more »

Carrying Humble Dollar Forward

"Andrew, What a wonderful piece, beautifully written."
- Andy Morrison
Read more »

Financial Tension

"It is a different kind of investment. 🙂"
- William Housley
Read more »

The condo, HOA, senior citizen conundrum

"I can see why people might be getting a little upset over the increase in the HOA monthly fee. It's approaching, in some instances I imagine, what they pay in property tax. The difference is that the HOA fee is directly re-invested in the place they live, while the property tax is not. I don't like paying $100 for an oil change, but it preserves the value of my car. I am less fond of paying $6000 for a new engine. Sometimes you need to pay a little (relatively) now to avoid paying a lot later. But some people are more about limiting the monthly budget than protecting/enhancing the long-term value of their assets."
- John Katz
Read more »

Staying Rational

IT'S BEEN MORE than six years since Covid first entered our vocabulary. It goes without saying that investors have experienced a lot, and for better or worse, recent market events provide some useful lessons. The first has to do with the nature of the stock market. What drives stock prices? Open a finance textbook, and the answer will be clear: The value of a stock should equal the sum of the company’s future profits. This idea is known as intrinsic value, and it’s the textbook explanation of how stock prices work. But there’s clearly a disconnect, since stock prices bounce around far more than the math suggests they should.  How can we square this circle? Over the long term, the data tell us that intrinsic value is a valid idea. Chart the price of any given stock, then overlay the company’s profits, and there will often be a reasonably close relationship. But only if you’re Rip Van Winkle. Over shorter periods of time, anything can happen. Stocks often move far above or far below their intrinsic values in response to the news of the day.  Especially during times of economic uncertainty, intrinsic value analysis is typically cast aside and replaced by some combination of emotion, conjecture, speculation and storytelling. That’s what we saw in the early months of 2020. Stores were closed, employees had been sent home and the economy went into recession. And since no one had a crystal ball, that’s when storytellers were able to step in with their extreme predictions, causing the stock market to drop more than 30% in the space of six weeks. The lesson for investors: No one can predict when the next crisis will roll around or what form it will take. But there is one very reasonable way to be able to keep it in perspective: by remembering that, at the end of the day, intrinsic value is what matters, and ultimately that’s what drives stock prices. Basic arithmetic illustrates how this can help us manage through the next crisis. Consider that the price-to-earnings ratio of the U.S. stock market has historically averaged around 16. The average company’s total stock market value, in other words, has been equal to about 16 times its annual profits.  Now let’s imagine that the next crisis results in every company in America losing an entire year of earnings. That’s extreme and hasn’t happened since the Depression, but it’s useful as a thought experiment. In that scenario, what would be the impact to those companies’ intrinsic value? In simple terms, it would be just one-sixteenth, or a modest 6%. What if a crisis were so severe that a company lost two years of earnings? Using this simple model, the impact would be about 12%. This is meaningful, I believe, because crises typically result in stock price declines that are far more severe than just 6% or 12%. In 2000 and in 2008, the market dropped more than 50%. While every crisis is different, I think it’s useful to keep these numbers in mind whenever the next geopolitical event causes stocks to drop. When that occurs, storytellers will inevitably take over, and the news will be downbeat. But if stocks drop to an extreme degree, as they have in the past, we can probably view it as an overreaction. That won’t help anyone’s portfolio recover any faster, but it should help us tune out the worst of the forecasters and maintain our equanimity. How else can you maintain an even keel during a market crisis? It’s important to understand the impact of recency bias. This bias is the tendency to extrapolate from current conditions, to assume that the future will look like the present, and to downplay the possibility that things might change. That tendency is what contributed to the cycle of negative news during the depths of 2020, and this is why I think it’s so important for investors to be aware of market history.  Again, extensive analysis isn’t required. We need only look back across some of the crises the country has weathered, from the Civil War to the Depression to World War II. In each case, the economy recovered and went on to become larger and stronger than before. The lesson for investors: In the depths of a crisis, it’s very difficult to know when or how it will end. But a sense of history can help carry us through. Those are ways to manage through a crisis. Covid also provided a lesson on how to prepare—specifically, how to prepare our portfolios—for a future downturn. In 2022, investors were caught flat-footed when popular total-bond market funds delivered surprising losses. These funds are one pillar of the well-known three-fund portfolio and have traditionally been viewed as the default choice for a set-it-and-forget-it bond allocation. But in 2022, when the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates, these funds dropped a surprising 13%. That was during the same year that the U.S. stock market dropped nearly 20%, creating a very difficult situation for those in retirement and needing to withdraw from their portfolios. The lesson for investors: Total-bond market funds may be well diversified, but they carry risk along another very important dimension known as duration. This is a bond metric that measures, in simple terms, how long it will take for bondholders to be repaid, and it’s a key determinant of risk. The longer the duration, the greater the risk of loss when rates rise. While total-bond market funds have holdings across a broad range of durations, they average out to nearly six years. That’s why they lost so much value in 2022. What’s the alternative? Short-term bond funds tend to have a duration in the neighborhood of just two years. As a result, in 2022, short-term government bond funds like Vanguard’s Short-Term Treasury ETF (ticker: VGSH) lost a far more manageable 4% of their value. To be sure, every crisis is different, and it’s easy to rationalize about the past once it’s in the past. But these lessons, I think, can help us better prepare both our emotions and our portfolios for whatever comes next.   Adam M. Grossman is the founder of Mayport, a fixed-fee wealth management firm. Sign up for Adam's Daily Ideas email, follow him on X @AdamMGrossman and check out his earlier articles.
Read more »

Penny Wise, Pound Foolish

"West Bend Poppery II off Ebay, and a bag of beans is all you need. I use a wooden spoon to agitate the beans to help move the chaff off. Roast outside. It gets smokey."
- Bob Steele
Read more »

A Life You Build

"Thank you for sharing your life story. We would do well to reflect on the lessons you have learned along the way. I particularly liked the bit about having flexibility with discipline, and the need for compassion."
- ram bala
Read more »

Navigating a Turbulent Career

A RECENT article by Adam Grossman relayed an interesting story of the 2015 merger of Kraft and Heinz.  One of the aspects that made this merger unique was the involvement of Warren Buffet. Adam’s story is a cautionary tale for investors – research shows that, more often than not, the hoped-for corporate synergies and growth are elusive. The story provides more evidence for the benefits of indexing to investors. There is, however, another side to this story that is very important to an individual’s personal financial life. In addition to being investors, most of us are, or were, employees of a corporation.  What if you are an employee of a company that is acquiring another company, being acquired by another company, or part of a merger?  How do you navigate the challenges of this significant career event? In late November 1985, I interviewed with RCA’s Astro Space division in East Windsor, NJ.  Several weeks later I interviewed with GE Aerospace in King of Prussia, PA.  In between those 2 interviews it was announced that GE was acquiring RCA. I received an offer for a position in the thermal engineering group of both companies. The GE offer was for $32,000, $4,000 more than the RCA offer.  The GE plant was about 8 miles from our home; the RCA plant was 62 miles from our home.   I accepted the GE offer.  When I called the RCA manager to tell him my decision, he was professional and understanding.  He remarked that “who knows, we may end up working together and you got a better deal out of it”. Four months later that RCA manager became the senior manager of the merged thermal engineering organization – my new boss’s boss. Seven years later my division was sold to Martin Marietta, whose space operations were based in Denver, CO. Two years later Martin Marietta merged with Lockheed, in Sunnyvale, CA, to form Lockheed Martin.  Later that year it was announced that the company was closing its 2 east coast plants and moving the work to Sunnyvale and Denver.   Over the 31 years starting in 1986, I was part of numerous acquisitions, mergers, two plant shut-downs, and being sold to a private equity company. Somehow, I managed to stay employed, and grow my career. I wasn’t special – hundreds of colleagues trod the same path. When I look back I can identify some of the attributes that helped me navigate a turbulent career. Build your Reputation: Be someone that people want to hire. If you move up, be someone that people want to work for. My first senior manager position came about because the hiring team remembered me from 4 years previous  Maintain Flexibility: Are you willing to travel or relocate? Would you take a lateral position, or even a step down, if it meant keeping a job?  During my career I traveled extensively, commuted 62 miles for four years, and took new positions that challenged me and my family.  Focus on your Skills: What are the skills and behaviors that are valued by your company, and differentiate successful employees? These include technical, leadership, managerial, and interpersonal skills. My first GE manager provided a sound technical base, but also taught me just as much about work ethic, and professionalism. Focus on the Culture:  Combing organizations means combining cultures, just as much as products or processes.  This may require you to be open to a different way of doing things. It requires a willingness to learn and grow.  It will also likely require some diplomacy skills.  Change is hard for employees, and nobody enjoys being told their processes or products are inferior.  When we merged with RCA, we found there was a significant difference in the way that managers and senior technical leaders challenged their employees in public forums, in front of customers.  GE preferred to work out technical differences and approaches in-house, and present a united front to customers. This took some time to resolve into a shared approach. Focus on the People:  When my first GE manager retired, we held a group luncheon. He was universally liked and respected.  Someone described him as the best “BTU chaser” he’d ever seen, which was high praise. He gave a short speech at his retirement, where he discussed the exciting space programs he had supported. He ended that the thing that made his career special wasn’t the projects and technology, it was the people.   I was also fortunate to work on some exciting, ground-breaking projects.  It wasn’t always easy, and the path certainly wasn’t straight.  Looking back, it is the people I think of most, and I miss the most.    Richard Connor is a semi-retired aerospace engineer with a keen interest in finance. He enjoys a wide variety of other interests, including chasing grandkids, space, sports, travel, winemaking and reading. Follow Rick on Twitter @RConnor609 and check out his earlier articles.
Read more »

Something to Think About

"This is an issue for an optimizer but not a satisficer. I'm more concerned with the total amount I convert each year than the timing. But I do have optimizer tendencies: I tend to leave maybe half or more of my Roth conversions for December so I can guess better and make my income near the top of the tax bracket and keep my capital gains in the 0% bracket."
- Randy Dobkin
Read more »

Free Newsletter

Get Educated

Manifesto

NO. 59: MOST FOLKS should avoid alternative investments. Yes, they promise returns uncorrelated with the stock market and gains when shares are tumbling. But isn’t that why we own bonds?

Truths

NO. 20: DOLLAR-COST averaging isn’t magical—but it is worthwhile. Investing the same sum every month in stocks supposedly improves the odds of making money. But in truth, dollar-cost averaging is about investor psychology: It helps us to overcome our reluctance to invest in stocks, instills discipline and makes stock market declines more palatable.

act

ALERT U.S. EMBASSIES to your travel plans. Before leaving on a foreign trip, sign up for the State Department's free Smart Traveler Enrollment Program and detail where you’re going. The local U.S. embassy or consulate will then contact you if, say, there’s a natural disaster or terrorist incident while you’re traveling abroad—and it may be able to offer advice or help.

think

INFLATION RISK. Suppose inflation runs at 2.5% a year. If you were living off a traditional employer pension or interest from long-term bonds, your income would lose more than half its spending power over a 30-year retirement. What to do? You might keep more in stocks, while also delaying Social Security so you have more inflation-indexed income.

Financial life planner

Manifesto

NO. 59: MOST FOLKS should avoid alternative investments. Yes, they promise returns uncorrelated with the stock market and gains when shares are tumbling. But isn’t that why we own bonds?

Spotlight: In Retirement

In retirement a pension is a advantage. Are two family incomes during working years an advantage as well?

My past writing on HD and numerous comments have made it clear my retirement is unique in that I have a good pension that together with our combined Social Security exceeds my working base salary the day before I retired. It also has been noted that my pension has given us a financial advantage by not being solely dependent on investments income. It’s all true.
But I have noticed that many people on HD are from couples with working spouses,

Read more »

Sector Fund by Stealth

I’VE RECENTLY MADE the most significant change to my own portfolio in thirty five years. For the first time I’ve moved away from pure market-cap investing, tilting meaningfully toward Europe and Southeast Asia and bringing my US technology concentration down to around fifteen percent.
I’m retired. I don’t need to chase the outperformance that concentration might deliver, and I don’t need the potential volatility that comes with it. This is a personal position rather than any kind of recommendation;

Read more »

What’s Really On My Mind

MY RETIREMENT HAS been wonderful so far. Honestly, sometimes I have to stop and remind myself how lucky I am. Rachel and I have our health and enjoy each other’s company, which is not always true when a couple retires. However, there are four things that concern me as I reach my mid-70s.
Loneliness
I tried calling Mark, my old high school friend, a couple of weeks ago, and I haven’t heard from him.

Read more »

Rehashing the age 70 thing. Tell Dear Dickie what is it that he doesn’t get about SS at age 70?

I realize I am on the outside looking in, out of sync, ignoring “expert” advice and rehashing the subject, but I can’t help it. I need help here.
I simply cannot understand why anyone living off their investments would use those investments to live on in favor of delaying social security until age 70. 
It seems to me that unless there is a gigantic pool of money they’ll never need, they are taking an unnecessary risk using more of their investments sooner rather than later.

Read more »

Going It Alone

When Rachel and I got married, I was already in my 60s. After our wedding, my sister said to Rachel, “You take good care of my brother.” My cousin Barb told her husband, Kent, “I don’t know what would have happened to Dennis if he had never met Rachel.”
I got the impression they didn’t think I could take care of myself in retirement — that it would be too difficult to go it alone. I get it.

Read more »

A theoretical, simplified road to retirement income without a pension. I’ve learned it doesn’t exist. 

Many discussions on HD make it clear my retirement is unique, mainly because our income consisting of a pension and SS is more than adequate to live in the way we did when I was working.
Other than monitor my pension as it grew, there was no financial plan except to ensure receiving the employer match on the 401k so that meant saving at least 8% for a total of 12%. I also invested the compensation I received above base salary,

Read more »

Spotlight: Haggert

Dollars and Sense

OUR MONEY DECISIONS usually aren’t driven by rational thinking and financial math. That’s one of Morgan Housel’s key messages in his recent book, The Psychology of Money: Timeless Lessons on Wealth, Greed, and Happiness. He uses history and personal tales to highlight a crucial insight into our relationship with money—that we often feel as though we’ll never have enough. The book contains no formulas for success, no get-rich-quick stock tips. Housel states the premise this way: “Doing well with money has a little to do with how smart you are and a lot to do with how you behave. And behavior is hard to teach, even to really smart people.” It didn’t take long for me to become engrossed in his theories about investment behavior. I guess we all like to read about what makes us tick. There’s plenty of that in this book. But there’s also a lot about why we make bad money decisions—even when we ought to know better. What makes this book readable are the stories and interesting tidbits that Housel uses to support his observations. For example, there’s a comparison between Bill Gates and his close friend, someone we haven’t heard of before. Why did Gates become incredibly successful and his close friend didn’t? It isn’t for reasons that might jump to mind: genius, ambition, confidence, hard work. No, Housel attributes the difference to luck or, in this case, bad luck. And not on Gates’s part. Ultimately, the author feels the reward for financial success is freedom. “The highest form of wealth is the ability to wake up every morning and say, ‘I can do whatever I want today’,” writes Housel. “The ability to do what you want, when you want, with who you want, for as long as you want, is priceless. It is…
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Hit With Dynamic Pricing! Has this happened to you?

My husband and I are big fans of Broadway Theatre. We went to see a show recently and decided to buy tickets for a future performance while we were in town. The last time we did this, the box office saved us the fees typically charged online. Imagine our surprise when, thanks to dynamic pricing, we actually paid more at the box office. We were in the city with close friends on Thursday, September 4th, and decided to buy tickets for &Juliet on October 19th. On Sunday, September 7th, out of curiosity, I decided to go online and check the location of the tickets. I was surprised to see that my seat was still available. Not only that, the seat I paid $250.00 for was showing a price of $192.50.  Concerned that an error had been made, I called the Stephen Sondheim box office. The good news: my seat was confirmed. The bad news is that I was told the price we paid was accurate because they use dynamic pricing. Apparently, there was a huge demand on September 4th for tickets on October 19th? I checked, and the 19th is neither a holiday weekend nor close to Thanksgiving and Christmas. The person on the phone told me that the fees on that $192.50 were $15.00, or a total of $207.50 if I had waited until we got home and called. I paid $42.50 more for the same ticket for the same future date. Would the fees online have been $42.50? Maybe I didn’t check. This was the time for me to look at the definition of dynamic pricing and find out if it was legal. By definition, “it is the practice of varying the price for a product or service to reflect changing market conditions, in particular the charging of…
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A Million Dreams

I DIDN'T WIN the Powerball lottery—this time. That’s too bad because I knew exactly what I’d have done with the money. I’ll bet you did, too. I was ready to pay for the education of all of our nieces’ children. “Go where you wanna go,” as the song says. My favorite charity would also have been on the list. Laurel House, a domestic violence agency, does tremendous work in Montgomery County, where we live in Southeastern Pennsylvania. Lest you think I don’t have something personal in mind, there’s a condo in Florida that I’ve had my eye on. And another one in New York City, so I could attend a Broadway show at a moment’s notice. All in my dreams, of course. Because I didn’t win—this time. Which means I won’t be on the evening news. In Pennsylvania, you must fill out a claim form to get your prize. The state will reveal your name, the town or county where you live, and how much you’ve won. Why does the state insist on this? It wants the public to know that you can indeed win, plus the more winners it publicizes, the more people play. Pennsylvania also has an open records law, which makes such information public. With such a revelation, all my friends and neighbors would have known I was RICH. I may have discovered friends and family I didn’t even know about. How would I say “no” to them? More to the point, how do you decide when to say “no” in general? Then there’s the whole issue of safety and scams. My lawyer friend said someone might have filed a bogus lawsuit against me or staged an accident, hoping I would pay up. There are loopholes around the identity issue, such as forming a trust to claim…
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Right Turn

MY HUSBAND IS the consumer every company should fear. In my last post, I detailed his multi-month research that preceded our recent car purchase. This time, he decided to investigate auto insurance. The Gecko’s promise to save 15% had hit a nerve. A savings of 15% on a $2,500 annual insurance bill for two cars would be worth the effort. But, of course, being the thorough person that he is, my husband had to check out every other insurance company on the planet. What an eye-opening experience. He started by getting online quotes. Then he called and asked for a hard copy confirmation. The initial online quotes looked amazing until he delved into the details. The coverage was minimal. When he asked the companies to replicate our current coverage, the quotes doubled. Upon further inquiry, he found out it was partly due to a claim. That made sense. But what claim? We couldn’t think of any accidents or traffic tickets. This is where it gets interesting. The agent said there is a clearinghouse that tracks insurance claims. The Comprehensive Loss Underwriting Exchange, or CLUE, looks at “incidents” on your report. We had three claims. In two instances, we had needed to jump start an antique car we own. These were incorrectly labelled as towing calls. My husband explained to the agent that we had a separate policy for the antique car and were not asking him to include it in the quote. It didn’t seem to matter. The other claim was for a damaged windshield on a car we had since sold. We decided that, since we had insurance, we should put in the claim. Isn’t that why you have insurance? It turns out that, while the claim may not negatively affect your premium with your present insurer, it could add…
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A Taste for Junk

BONDS ARE IN THE NEWS again. Everyone’s talking about Series I savings bonds and Treasurys. But what about corporate bonds, both investment-grade and junk? Nine years ago, we started following Marc Lichtenfeld’s investment service that recommends corporate bonds. When my husband suggested we try it, I asked, “Aren’t corporate bonds junk bonds?” Forgive the holiday reference, but I had visions of Michael Milken dancing in my head. From the beginning, my husband was all in. He was intrigued by the high rates corporates would pay and the opportunity for diversification. I was concerned about the risk. Once we got started, though, I found a lot to like. Corporate bonds carry ratings that help distinguish their creditworthiness. Three credit rating agencies—Moody’s, Standard & Poor’s and Fitch—sort corporates into investment grade, speculative grade, likely to default and defaulting. Each tier has a corresponding letter grade, from AAA to D. Bond buyers can look up the gradations among the three rating agencies to understand what each rating means for any given bond. In general, a top rating of AAA is reserved for U.S. Treasurys and the strongest blue-chip companies. Investment-grade corporate bonds can get grades ranging from AA+ to BBB-. Anything lower is speculative or not investment grade—junk, in other words. We compromised by buying investment-grade bonds at first. Gradually, we ventured further into the depths of junk, even buying C- and D-rated bonds as time went on. These are the bottom rungs of junk. A grade of D, for example, usually signifies “in default.” How, then, have our junk bonds held up? Surprisingly well. For a risk-averse investor like me, a crucial selling point was their relatively low default rate of 2.5% to 3.5%. High-yield bonds have also posted sturdy returns, according to Bloomberg data cited by money manager Hotchkis & Wiley. The…
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Vet These Policies

YOU LOVE THEM LIKE family. You want them to have the best care possible. You have insurance for yourself, your family, your home, your car and your upcoming vacation. Why not for your pet? One of our friends recently opted for pet insurance—after multiple trips to the vet, with more than 20 medications prescribed. Intrigued by the idea of pet insurance? Here are eight choices and what they offer: Pets Best covers everything, including medications, physical therapy and even acupuncture. It also covers senior pets and makes it easy by paying the veterinarian directly. You can decide if you want a $5,000 annual cap on reimbursement or unlimited coverage. You can also customize your policy. Payment options are monthly, quarterly or semiannually. Trupanion may be your choice if you prefer to avoid paying deductibles. It will also pay the veterinarian directly, and there’s no cap on the number of claims you can submit. There is, however, a limit to how much you can customize your policy. Lemonade is great for digital claims. Your claim can be reimbursed within minutes through an app on your phone. The coverage isn’t available in all states. ASPCA offers complete and accident-only coverage. Coverage starts at $10 a month and allows you to adjust the reimbursements to suit your budget. Pumpkin plans can have annual caps on reimbursements, such as $20,000 for dogs and $15,000 for cats, though pet owners can also pay up for unlimited coverage. Healthy Paws doesn’t cover hip dysplasia, a common dog problem, if a pet is six years or older at the time of enrollment. Prudent Pet offers acupuncture and chiropractic care coverage if a veterinarian recommends it. It may have a longer claim-processing wait time than some of the other policies. Nationwide covers cats and dogs, but also exotic pets. This…
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