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What Bangladesh Taught Me About Enough

"Thank you Sundar for sharing your experiences and your encouragement to keep writing. I appreciate it."
- Andrew Clements
Read more »

Fixing Social Security once and for all

"It would help if the government stopped "borrowing" (stealing) from the Social Security fund and leaving IOU's. There shouldn't be any cap on taxed wages. The real fix is to grandfather everyone in who is on SS today or has started paying and say that after a future date SS will end. All new workers will be automatically signed up for a diversified, opt-out, Roth IRA (you're signed up automatically but have the option to quit). If AI does take over and start doing all the jobs there should be an AI workers tax that would go toward a guaranteed minimum income with a contribution toward the retirement Roth IRA."
- Tim Mueller
Read more »

Penny Wise, Pound Foolish

"I used to get a year subscription to the local print newspaper by waiting until I would see one of these collage student sales people in the supermarket who I could talk down to a good price along with a bunch of gift cards. They disappeared after the pandemic, so I started buying only the Sunday paper to save money. I just figured out last week that the undiscounted full price of only the Sunday newspaper times fifty two weeks is the same or more than a full weekly subscription used to be."
- Tim Mueller
Read more »

One Good Call?

"Thanks Mark for sharing this. Since the advisor seems to believe in shifting asset allocation based on market conditions, did you analyze the portfolio to see whether they had made timing calls like this that did worse than doing nothing? The advisor made the argument that he only had to make one right call like this to justify the fees. That seems right - as long as they don’t make any other wrong ones?"
- Jeremy Hockenstein
Read more »

A Bit More Humble

I LOVE TO PLAN. My wife, Sharon, often catches me nestled in my chair, gazing out a window at a distant object as my mind wanders even farther afield. My musings become scribbles on a scrap of paper, destined for discussion with Sharon at length over coffee and long walks. Eventually, we hammer out the settled strategies we think will best bring us happiness in adventures ranging from our next hike to the next few decades of life. Of course, I know our intended track, or even the final destination, may change over time. I'm just a little boat on a big sea, blown about by winds and carried along by deep currents that may push me far off my charted course. Still, though it may be somewhat of an illusion, I cling to the comfort of control. Smooth sailing. And for most of 2025, life was comfortable. In April, I shifted to part-time work as a physical therapist. I termed my new lifestyle “semi-retirement”. My reduced salary, added to Sharon’s contribution from a few hours’ work each month, still gave us enough income from our jobs to cover expenses, with leftovers for a little investing and so forth. Along with that, we gained enough new-found, free time to pursue a bit more fun while catching up on projects around the house. As an added bonus, I expected delaying full retirement a couple of years might lead to more happiness in the decades ahead. How so? Because my post-retirement plan was still a work-in-progress. “I studied and planned for two years before I retired,” Mike told me at a large family gathering. In his mid-70s, his excitement was evident as he recounted his active lifestyle. At home, his schedule includes participation in our state’s Master Gardener program and regular trips to the gym. Abroad, he organizes groups to walk the Camino de Santiago in Spain.  I had a yen for a fulfilling retirement like Mike’s. My roster of reasons to jump out of bed each morning might have a different twist or two, but I wanted the same zest for living. My unique recipe for retirement happiness still needed time to cook, however. Oh, I knew I had plenty to keep my hands active. Even so, I wasn’t yet convinced I could substitute the mental stimulation provided by my patients and colleagues. According to a decades-long study from Harvard University, some folks discover that work supplies satisfaction not found elsewhere. I have a nagging suspicion I’m one of those restless souls, and I dreaded the thought of finding myself adrift, with little sense of purpose beyond indulging my own selfish needs. And let’s face it: I still get a thrill from watching my money grow. Earning an income delays the need to plunge my fingers into my pile of savings to pay the grocery bill. All told, I figured my best move was to stay put until a clear exit appeared. Unexpected storm. Meanwhile, my employer was moving in its own interest. In December, I learned that with the new year came new management for our outpatient physical therapy clinics. Our hospital system opted to outsource operations with the hope of securing guaranteed revenue. After the revamping, my boss would keep some new iteration of her job, but the outpatient clinics would report to the new administration, rather than her. The news was a blow to my ordered life. No longer was I sailing through calm waters toward the sunset of my choosing. Instead, I faced the probability of turbulence as our clinic transitioned to the new system. And we were already struggling to implement a comprehensive computer software replacement that would take many more months to fashion into a serviceable tool. I sensed danger ahead. Or, at the very least, a year or two of starts, sputters and stops before the clinic machine was humming again. I decided to bail, and on February 18th clocked my last day with my former employer, four days after Sharon. It turns out my radar was right. The details are dirty, but the gist is the transition is stalled and leadership of the affected clinics in limbo. New direction. On the face of the situation, it seems my “clear exit” did indeed appear, and that I acted with autonomy to choose the course of my life. After all, I had exercised the option of jumping out of a job headed south and into the retirement I had dreamed of for decades. On top of that, I landed in a new, part-time job with Miranda, an old friend. Back in December, Miranda called to ask if I could help cover patients in her clinic while she was out on extended leave. I wasn’t seeking more work, but she needed help. I couldn’t refuse. So, starting with one half-day per week in January, I’m now up to two or three half-days. Miranda’s made it clear I’m welcome to work more, but I’m satisfied for now. And the atmosphere in the clinic is great. It’s staffed by easy-going folks who are serious about patient care. Still, it’s hard to shake the sense I’ve been scrambling to right myself after getting shoved off balance. During the last few weeks with my former employer, I had the feeling I was getting pushed out of a satisfying job before I was ready to leave. My usual optimism suffered, as did my sleep habits and typical interests, like gardening and writing. Why? Perhaps the answer is the sudden, unplanned departure from my job. Research indicates forced retirement can lead to negative feelings about health and to depression. I have to admit I found my new temperament described in the pages of a research paper.  Other studies on job loss, found here, here and here, examine and compare the emotions experienced by losing a job to that of other types of loss, such as grief after the death of a loved one. Considered in this light, the Kubler-Ross model of the five stages of grief might help someone--like me–understand and deal with the psychological aftermath of job loss. Peering ahead. Back to my reality, I know I’m painting a grim picture of a life that’s actually very blessed. Others have experienced far worse with fewer complaints. My perceived suffering pales beside that of a person who’s lost a loved one, or an income needed for survival. Also, as I get used to the shift in my lifestyle, I’m beginning to find my groove again. Last spring, I started the season thinking I was at life’s helm, confident I could steer in any direction and choose my pace. I was thankful, but a little smug as I laid plans for my vision of retirement. One year later, I’m still planning and still thankful–but a bit more humble.   Ed is a semi-retired physical therapist who lives and works in a small community near Atlanta. When he's not spending time with his church, family or friends, you may find him tending his garden and wondering if he will ever fully retire. Check out Ed’s earlier articles.
Read more »

Staying Rational

IT'S BEEN MORE than six years since Covid first entered our vocabulary. It goes without saying that investors have experienced a lot, and for better or worse, recent market events provide some useful lessons. The first has to do with the nature of the stock market. What drives stock prices? Open a finance textbook, and the answer will be clear: The value of a stock should equal the sum of the company’s future profits. This idea is known as intrinsic value, and it’s the textbook explanation of how stock prices work. But there’s clearly a disconnect, since stock prices bounce around far more than the math suggests they should.  How can we square this circle? Over the long term, the data tell us that intrinsic value is a valid idea. Chart the price of any given stock, then overlay the company’s profits, and there will often be a reasonably close relationship. But only if you’re Rip Van Winkle. Over shorter periods of time, anything can happen. Stocks often move far above or far below their intrinsic values in response to the news of the day.  Especially during times of economic uncertainty, intrinsic value analysis is typically cast aside and replaced by some combination of emotion, conjecture, speculation and storytelling. That’s what we saw in the early months of 2020. Stores were closed, employees had been sent home and the economy went into recession. And since no one had a crystal ball, that’s when storytellers were able to step in with their extreme predictions, causing the stock market to drop more than 30% in the space of six weeks. The lesson for investors: No one can predict when the next crisis will roll around or what form it will take. But there is one very reasonable way to be able to keep it in perspective: by remembering that, at the end of the day, intrinsic value is what matters, and ultimately that’s what drives stock prices. Basic arithmetic illustrates how this can help us manage through the next crisis. Consider that the price-to-earnings ratio of the U.S. stock market has historically averaged around 16. The average company’s total stock market value, in other words, has been equal to about 16 times its annual profits.  Now let’s imagine that the next crisis results in every company in America losing an entire year of earnings. That’s extreme and hasn’t happened since the Depression, but it’s useful as a thought experiment. In that scenario, what would be the impact to those companies’ intrinsic value? In simple terms, it would be just one-sixteenth, or a modest 6%. What if a crisis were so severe that a company lost two years of earnings? Using this simple model, the impact would be about 12%. This is meaningful, I believe, because crises typically result in stock price declines that are far more severe than just 6% or 12%. In 2000 and in 2008, the market dropped more than 50%. While every crisis is different, I think it’s useful to keep these numbers in mind whenever the next geopolitical event causes stocks to drop. When that occurs, storytellers will inevitably take over, and the news will be downbeat. But if stocks drop to an extreme degree, as they have in the past, we can probably view it as an overreaction. That won’t help anyone’s portfolio recover any faster, but it should help us tune out the worst of the forecasters and maintain our equanimity. How else can you maintain an even keel during a market crisis? It’s important to understand the impact of recency bias. This bias is the tendency to extrapolate from current conditions, to assume that the future will look like the present, and to downplay the possibility that things might change. That tendency is what contributed to the cycle of negative news during the depths of 2020, and this is why I think it’s so important for investors to be aware of market history.  Again, extensive analysis isn’t required. We need only look back across some of the crises the country has weathered, from the Civil War to the Depression to World War II. In each case, the economy recovered and went on to become larger and stronger than before. The lesson for investors: In the depths of a crisis, it’s very difficult to know when or how it will end. But a sense of history can help carry us through. Those are ways to manage through a crisis. Covid also provided a lesson on how to prepare—specifically, how to prepare our portfolios—for a future downturn. In 2022, investors were caught flat-footed when popular total-bond market funds delivered surprising losses. These funds are one pillar of the well-known three-fund portfolio and have traditionally been viewed as the default choice for a set-it-and-forget-it bond allocation. But in 2022, when the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates, these funds dropped a surprising 13%. That was during the same year that the U.S. stock market dropped nearly 20%, creating a very difficult situation for those in retirement and needing to withdraw from their portfolios. The lesson for investors: Total-bond market funds may be well diversified, but they carry risk along another very important dimension known as duration. This is a bond metric that measures, in simple terms, how long it will take for bondholders to be repaid, and it’s a key determinant of risk. The longer the duration, the greater the risk of loss when rates rise. While total-bond market funds have holdings across a broad range of durations, they average out to nearly six years. That’s why they lost so much value in 2022. What’s the alternative? Short-term bond funds tend to have a duration in the neighborhood of just two years. As a result, in 2022, short-term government bond funds like Vanguard’s Short-Term Treasury ETF (ticker: VGSH) lost a far more manageable 4% of their value. To be sure, every crisis is different, and it’s easy to rationalize about the past once it’s in the past. But these lessons, I think, can help us better prepare both our emotions and our portfolios for whatever comes next.   Adam M. Grossman is the founder of Mayport, a fixed-fee wealth management firm. Sign up for Adam's Daily Ideas email, follow him on X @AdamMGrossman and check out his earlier articles.
Read more »

Navigating a Turbulent Career

A RECENT article by Adam Grossman relayed an interesting story of the 2015 merger of Kraft and Heinz.  One of the aspects that made this merger unique was the involvement of Warren Buffet. Adam’s story is a cautionary tale for investors – research shows that, more often than not, the hoped-for corporate synergies and growth are elusive. The story provides more evidence for the benefits of indexing to investors. There is, however, another side to this story that is very important to an individual’s personal financial life. In addition to being investors, most of us are, or were, employees of a corporation.  What if you are an employee of a company that is acquiring another company, being acquired by another company, or part of a merger?  How do you navigate the challenges of this significant career event? In late November 1985, I interviewed with RCA’s Astro Space division in East Windsor, NJ.  Several weeks later I interviewed with GE Aerospace in King of Prussia, PA.  In between those 2 interviews it was announced that GE was acquiring RCA. I received an offer for a position in the thermal engineering group of both companies. The GE offer was for $32,000, $4,000 more than the RCA offer.  The GE plant was about 8 miles from our home; the RCA plant was 62 miles from our home.   I accepted the GE offer.  When I called the RCA manager to tell him my decision, he was professional and understanding.  He remarked that “who knows, we may end up working together and you got a better deal out of it”. Four months later that RCA manager became the senior manager of the merged thermal engineering organization – my new boss’s boss. Seven years later my division was sold to Martin Marietta, whose space operations were based in Denver, CO. Two years later Martin Marietta merged with Lockheed, in Sunnyvale, CA, to form Lockheed Martin.  Later that year it was announced that the company was closing its 2 east coast plants and moving the work to Sunnyvale and Denver.   Over the 31 years starting in 1986, I was part of numerous acquisitions, mergers, two plant shut-downs, and being sold to a private equity company. Somehow, I managed to stay employed, and grow my career. I wasn’t special – hundreds of colleagues trod the same path. When I look back I can identify some of the attributes that helped me navigate a turbulent career. Build your Reputation: Be someone that people want to hire. If you move up, be someone that people want to work for. My first senior manager position came about because the hiring team remembered me from 4 years previous  Maintain Flexibility: Are you willing to travel or relocate? Would you take a lateral position, or even a step down, if it meant keeping a job?  During my career I traveled extensively, commuted 62 miles for four years, and took new positions that challenged me and my family.  Focus on your Skills: What are the skills and behaviors that are valued by your company, and differentiate successful employees? These include technical, leadership, managerial, and interpersonal skills. My first GE manager provided a sound technical base, but also taught me just as much about work ethic, and professionalism. Focus on the Culture:  Combing organizations means combining cultures, just as much as products or processes.  This may require you to be open to a different way of doing things. It requires a willingness to learn and grow.  It will also likely require some diplomacy skills.  Change is hard for employees, and nobody enjoys being told their processes or products are inferior.  When we merged with RCA, we found there was a significant difference in the way that managers and senior technical leaders challenged their employees in public forums, in front of customers.  GE preferred to work out technical differences and approaches in-house, and present a united front to customers. This took some time to resolve into a shared approach. Focus on the People:  When my first GE manager retired, we held a group luncheon. He was universally liked and respected.  Someone described him as the best “BTU chaser” he’d ever seen, which was high praise. He gave a short speech at his retirement, where he discussed the exciting space programs he had supported. He ended that the thing that made his career special wasn’t the projects and technology, it was the people.   I was also fortunate to work on some exciting, ground-breaking projects.  It wasn’t always easy, and the path certainly wasn’t straight.  Looking back, it is the people I think of most, and I miss the most.    Richard Connor is a semi-retired aerospace engineer with a keen interest in finance. He enjoys a wide variety of other interests, including chasing grandkids, space, sports, travel, winemaking and reading. Follow Rick on Twitter @RConnor609 and check out his earlier articles.
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Financial Tension

"It is likely none of us on Humble Dollar have enormous wealth 🤔 Some, likely many, like you do what we can."
- William Housley
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Do retirees really struggle financially? Why and what to do?

"When we first retired 2 years ago, I wasn’t sure how things would be, but it has turned out like the middle income class that you mentioned in the studies. I also agree with what you wrote about location: high vs low cost areas. And so many people don’t have pensions now. One thing I thought of while I was reading your article and the comments was if multi-generational living will become more popular. We have friends who built a home in the late 1990s for this purpose so that one of the mothers could live with them. Chris"
- baldscreen
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The IRA Decision That Affects Your Kids

"It looks like, since children over age 18 are not an "eligible designated beneficiary," the distribution is 10 years until 12-31 of the 10th year after death. BUT the difference is if a person has not started RMDs, the 10 years has no minimum, but if RMDs have started, the beneficiary must use the single life expectancy table (for themself), until the last year when the account must be emptied. This is for when the surviving spouse rolls the other spouse's traditional IRA into their own. Just make sure you've named beneficiaries and that they are the ones you want named."
- JeffreyK
Read more »

What Bangladesh Taught Me About Enough

"Thank you Sundar for sharing your experiences and your encouragement to keep writing. I appreciate it."
- Andrew Clements
Read more »

Fixing Social Security once and for all

"It would help if the government stopped "borrowing" (stealing) from the Social Security fund and leaving IOU's. There shouldn't be any cap on taxed wages. The real fix is to grandfather everyone in who is on SS today or has started paying and say that after a future date SS will end. All new workers will be automatically signed up for a diversified, opt-out, Roth IRA (you're signed up automatically but have the option to quit). If AI does take over and start doing all the jobs there should be an AI workers tax that would go toward a guaranteed minimum income with a contribution toward the retirement Roth IRA."
- Tim Mueller
Read more »

Penny Wise, Pound Foolish

"I used to get a year subscription to the local print newspaper by waiting until I would see one of these collage student sales people in the supermarket who I could talk down to a good price along with a bunch of gift cards. They disappeared after the pandemic, so I started buying only the Sunday paper to save money. I just figured out last week that the undiscounted full price of only the Sunday newspaper times fifty two weeks is the same or more than a full weekly subscription used to be."
- Tim Mueller
Read more »

One Good Call?

"Thanks Mark for sharing this. Since the advisor seems to believe in shifting asset allocation based on market conditions, did you analyze the portfolio to see whether they had made timing calls like this that did worse than doing nothing? The advisor made the argument that he only had to make one right call like this to justify the fees. That seems right - as long as they don’t make any other wrong ones?"
- Jeremy Hockenstein
Read more »

A Bit More Humble

I LOVE TO PLAN. My wife, Sharon, often catches me nestled in my chair, gazing out a window at a distant object as my mind wanders even farther afield. My musings become scribbles on a scrap of paper, destined for discussion with Sharon at length over coffee and long walks. Eventually, we hammer out the settled strategies we think will best bring us happiness in adventures ranging from our next hike to the next few decades of life. Of course, I know our intended track, or even the final destination, may change over time. I'm just a little boat on a big sea, blown about by winds and carried along by deep currents that may push me far off my charted course. Still, though it may be somewhat of an illusion, I cling to the comfort of control. Smooth sailing. And for most of 2025, life was comfortable. In April, I shifted to part-time work as a physical therapist. I termed my new lifestyle “semi-retirement”. My reduced salary, added to Sharon’s contribution from a few hours’ work each month, still gave us enough income from our jobs to cover expenses, with leftovers for a little investing and so forth. Along with that, we gained enough new-found, free time to pursue a bit more fun while catching up on projects around the house. As an added bonus, I expected delaying full retirement a couple of years might lead to more happiness in the decades ahead. How so? Because my post-retirement plan was still a work-in-progress. “I studied and planned for two years before I retired,” Mike told me at a large family gathering. In his mid-70s, his excitement was evident as he recounted his active lifestyle. At home, his schedule includes participation in our state’s Master Gardener program and regular trips to the gym. Abroad, he organizes groups to walk the Camino de Santiago in Spain.  I had a yen for a fulfilling retirement like Mike’s. My roster of reasons to jump out of bed each morning might have a different twist or two, but I wanted the same zest for living. My unique recipe for retirement happiness still needed time to cook, however. Oh, I knew I had plenty to keep my hands active. Even so, I wasn’t yet convinced I could substitute the mental stimulation provided by my patients and colleagues. According to a decades-long study from Harvard University, some folks discover that work supplies satisfaction not found elsewhere. I have a nagging suspicion I’m one of those restless souls, and I dreaded the thought of finding myself adrift, with little sense of purpose beyond indulging my own selfish needs. And let’s face it: I still get a thrill from watching my money grow. Earning an income delays the need to plunge my fingers into my pile of savings to pay the grocery bill. All told, I figured my best move was to stay put until a clear exit appeared. Unexpected storm. Meanwhile, my employer was moving in its own interest. In December, I learned that with the new year came new management for our outpatient physical therapy clinics. Our hospital system opted to outsource operations with the hope of securing guaranteed revenue. After the revamping, my boss would keep some new iteration of her job, but the outpatient clinics would report to the new administration, rather than her. The news was a blow to my ordered life. No longer was I sailing through calm waters toward the sunset of my choosing. Instead, I faced the probability of turbulence as our clinic transitioned to the new system. And we were already struggling to implement a comprehensive computer software replacement that would take many more months to fashion into a serviceable tool. I sensed danger ahead. Or, at the very least, a year or two of starts, sputters and stops before the clinic machine was humming again. I decided to bail, and on February 18th clocked my last day with my former employer, four days after Sharon. It turns out my radar was right. The details are dirty, but the gist is the transition is stalled and leadership of the affected clinics in limbo. New direction. On the face of the situation, it seems my “clear exit” did indeed appear, and that I acted with autonomy to choose the course of my life. After all, I had exercised the option of jumping out of a job headed south and into the retirement I had dreamed of for decades. On top of that, I landed in a new, part-time job with Miranda, an old friend. Back in December, Miranda called to ask if I could help cover patients in her clinic while she was out on extended leave. I wasn’t seeking more work, but she needed help. I couldn’t refuse. So, starting with one half-day per week in January, I’m now up to two or three half-days. Miranda’s made it clear I’m welcome to work more, but I’m satisfied for now. And the atmosphere in the clinic is great. It’s staffed by easy-going folks who are serious about patient care. Still, it’s hard to shake the sense I’ve been scrambling to right myself after getting shoved off balance. During the last few weeks with my former employer, I had the feeling I was getting pushed out of a satisfying job before I was ready to leave. My usual optimism suffered, as did my sleep habits and typical interests, like gardening and writing. Why? Perhaps the answer is the sudden, unplanned departure from my job. Research indicates forced retirement can lead to negative feelings about health and to depression. I have to admit I found my new temperament described in the pages of a research paper.  Other studies on job loss, found here, here and here, examine and compare the emotions experienced by losing a job to that of other types of loss, such as grief after the death of a loved one. Considered in this light, the Kubler-Ross model of the five stages of grief might help someone--like me–understand and deal with the psychological aftermath of job loss. Peering ahead. Back to my reality, I know I’m painting a grim picture of a life that’s actually very blessed. Others have experienced far worse with fewer complaints. My perceived suffering pales beside that of a person who’s lost a loved one, or an income needed for survival. Also, as I get used to the shift in my lifestyle, I’m beginning to find my groove again. Last spring, I started the season thinking I was at life’s helm, confident I could steer in any direction and choose my pace. I was thankful, but a little smug as I laid plans for my vision of retirement. One year later, I’m still planning and still thankful–but a bit more humble.   Ed is a semi-retired physical therapist who lives and works in a small community near Atlanta. When he's not spending time with his church, family or friends, you may find him tending his garden and wondering if he will ever fully retire. Check out Ed’s earlier articles.
Read more »

Staying Rational

IT'S BEEN MORE than six years since Covid first entered our vocabulary. It goes without saying that investors have experienced a lot, and for better or worse, recent market events provide some useful lessons. The first has to do with the nature of the stock market. What drives stock prices? Open a finance textbook, and the answer will be clear: The value of a stock should equal the sum of the company’s future profits. This idea is known as intrinsic value, and it’s the textbook explanation of how stock prices work. But there’s clearly a disconnect, since stock prices bounce around far more than the math suggests they should.  How can we square this circle? Over the long term, the data tell us that intrinsic value is a valid idea. Chart the price of any given stock, then overlay the company’s profits, and there will often be a reasonably close relationship. But only if you’re Rip Van Winkle. Over shorter periods of time, anything can happen. Stocks often move far above or far below their intrinsic values in response to the news of the day.  Especially during times of economic uncertainty, intrinsic value analysis is typically cast aside and replaced by some combination of emotion, conjecture, speculation and storytelling. That’s what we saw in the early months of 2020. Stores were closed, employees had been sent home and the economy went into recession. And since no one had a crystal ball, that’s when storytellers were able to step in with their extreme predictions, causing the stock market to drop more than 30% in the space of six weeks. The lesson for investors: No one can predict when the next crisis will roll around or what form it will take. But there is one very reasonable way to be able to keep it in perspective: by remembering that, at the end of the day, intrinsic value is what matters, and ultimately that’s what drives stock prices. Basic arithmetic illustrates how this can help us manage through the next crisis. Consider that the price-to-earnings ratio of the U.S. stock market has historically averaged around 16. The average company’s total stock market value, in other words, has been equal to about 16 times its annual profits.  Now let’s imagine that the next crisis results in every company in America losing an entire year of earnings. That’s extreme and hasn’t happened since the Depression, but it’s useful as a thought experiment. In that scenario, what would be the impact to those companies’ intrinsic value? In simple terms, it would be just one-sixteenth, or a modest 6%. What if a crisis were so severe that a company lost two years of earnings? Using this simple model, the impact would be about 12%. This is meaningful, I believe, because crises typically result in stock price declines that are far more severe than just 6% or 12%. In 2000 and in 2008, the market dropped more than 50%. While every crisis is different, I think it’s useful to keep these numbers in mind whenever the next geopolitical event causes stocks to drop. When that occurs, storytellers will inevitably take over, and the news will be downbeat. But if stocks drop to an extreme degree, as they have in the past, we can probably view it as an overreaction. That won’t help anyone’s portfolio recover any faster, but it should help us tune out the worst of the forecasters and maintain our equanimity. How else can you maintain an even keel during a market crisis? It’s important to understand the impact of recency bias. This bias is the tendency to extrapolate from current conditions, to assume that the future will look like the present, and to downplay the possibility that things might change. That tendency is what contributed to the cycle of negative news during the depths of 2020, and this is why I think it’s so important for investors to be aware of market history.  Again, extensive analysis isn’t required. We need only look back across some of the crises the country has weathered, from the Civil War to the Depression to World War II. In each case, the economy recovered and went on to become larger and stronger than before. The lesson for investors: In the depths of a crisis, it’s very difficult to know when or how it will end. But a sense of history can help carry us through. Those are ways to manage through a crisis. Covid also provided a lesson on how to prepare—specifically, how to prepare our portfolios—for a future downturn. In 2022, investors were caught flat-footed when popular total-bond market funds delivered surprising losses. These funds are one pillar of the well-known three-fund portfolio and have traditionally been viewed as the default choice for a set-it-and-forget-it bond allocation. But in 2022, when the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates, these funds dropped a surprising 13%. That was during the same year that the U.S. stock market dropped nearly 20%, creating a very difficult situation for those in retirement and needing to withdraw from their portfolios. The lesson for investors: Total-bond market funds may be well diversified, but they carry risk along another very important dimension known as duration. This is a bond metric that measures, in simple terms, how long it will take for bondholders to be repaid, and it’s a key determinant of risk. The longer the duration, the greater the risk of loss when rates rise. While total-bond market funds have holdings across a broad range of durations, they average out to nearly six years. That’s why they lost so much value in 2022. What’s the alternative? Short-term bond funds tend to have a duration in the neighborhood of just two years. As a result, in 2022, short-term government bond funds like Vanguard’s Short-Term Treasury ETF (ticker: VGSH) lost a far more manageable 4% of their value. To be sure, every crisis is different, and it’s easy to rationalize about the past once it’s in the past. But these lessons, I think, can help us better prepare both our emotions and our portfolios for whatever comes next.   Adam M. Grossman is the founder of Mayport, a fixed-fee wealth management firm. Sign up for Adam's Daily Ideas email, follow him on X @AdamMGrossman and check out his earlier articles.
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Navigating a Turbulent Career

A RECENT article by Adam Grossman relayed an interesting story of the 2015 merger of Kraft and Heinz.  One of the aspects that made this merger unique was the involvement of Warren Buffet. Adam’s story is a cautionary tale for investors – research shows that, more often than not, the hoped-for corporate synergies and growth are elusive. The story provides more evidence for the benefits of indexing to investors. There is, however, another side to this story that is very important to an individual’s personal financial life. In addition to being investors, most of us are, or were, employees of a corporation.  What if you are an employee of a company that is acquiring another company, being acquired by another company, or part of a merger?  How do you navigate the challenges of this significant career event? In late November 1985, I interviewed with RCA’s Astro Space division in East Windsor, NJ.  Several weeks later I interviewed with GE Aerospace in King of Prussia, PA.  In between those 2 interviews it was announced that GE was acquiring RCA. I received an offer for a position in the thermal engineering group of both companies. The GE offer was for $32,000, $4,000 more than the RCA offer.  The GE plant was about 8 miles from our home; the RCA plant was 62 miles from our home.   I accepted the GE offer.  When I called the RCA manager to tell him my decision, he was professional and understanding.  He remarked that “who knows, we may end up working together and you got a better deal out of it”. Four months later that RCA manager became the senior manager of the merged thermal engineering organization – my new boss’s boss. Seven years later my division was sold to Martin Marietta, whose space operations were based in Denver, CO. Two years later Martin Marietta merged with Lockheed, in Sunnyvale, CA, to form Lockheed Martin.  Later that year it was announced that the company was closing its 2 east coast plants and moving the work to Sunnyvale and Denver.   Over the 31 years starting in 1986, I was part of numerous acquisitions, mergers, two plant shut-downs, and being sold to a private equity company. Somehow, I managed to stay employed, and grow my career. I wasn’t special – hundreds of colleagues trod the same path. When I look back I can identify some of the attributes that helped me navigate a turbulent career. Build your Reputation: Be someone that people want to hire. If you move up, be someone that people want to work for. My first senior manager position came about because the hiring team remembered me from 4 years previous  Maintain Flexibility: Are you willing to travel or relocate? Would you take a lateral position, or even a step down, if it meant keeping a job?  During my career I traveled extensively, commuted 62 miles for four years, and took new positions that challenged me and my family.  Focus on your Skills: What are the skills and behaviors that are valued by your company, and differentiate successful employees? These include technical, leadership, managerial, and interpersonal skills. My first GE manager provided a sound technical base, but also taught me just as much about work ethic, and professionalism. Focus on the Culture:  Combing organizations means combining cultures, just as much as products or processes.  This may require you to be open to a different way of doing things. It requires a willingness to learn and grow.  It will also likely require some diplomacy skills.  Change is hard for employees, and nobody enjoys being told their processes or products are inferior.  When we merged with RCA, we found there was a significant difference in the way that managers and senior technical leaders challenged their employees in public forums, in front of customers.  GE preferred to work out technical differences and approaches in-house, and present a united front to customers. This took some time to resolve into a shared approach. Focus on the People:  When my first GE manager retired, we held a group luncheon. He was universally liked and respected.  Someone described him as the best “BTU chaser” he’d ever seen, which was high praise. He gave a short speech at his retirement, where he discussed the exciting space programs he had supported. He ended that the thing that made his career special wasn’t the projects and technology, it was the people.   I was also fortunate to work on some exciting, ground-breaking projects.  It wasn’t always easy, and the path certainly wasn’t straight.  Looking back, it is the people I think of most, and I miss the most.    Richard Connor is a semi-retired aerospace engineer with a keen interest in finance. He enjoys a wide variety of other interests, including chasing grandkids, space, sports, travel, winemaking and reading. Follow Rick on Twitter @RConnor609 and check out his earlier articles.
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Financial Tension

"It is likely none of us on Humble Dollar have enormous wealth 🤔 Some, likely many, like you do what we can."
- William Housley
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Manifesto

NO. 59: MOST FOLKS should avoid alternative investments. Yes, they promise returns uncorrelated with the stock market and gains when shares are tumbling. But isn’t that why we own bonds?

humans

NO. 64: WE MAY feel stuck—but often others can point the way forward. We’ve all struggled with seemingly intractable problems, mulling them over and over, trying to figure out the answer. But sometimes, the solution isn’t to think harder. Instead, it’s to ask others, who will have a different perspective—and may suggest solutions that hadn’t occurred to us.

Truths

NO. 21: WE’RE HARDWIRED to search for patterns. We might convince ourselves that markets are sure to rise or fall, that individual stocks will soar or sink, or that certain mutual fund managers are destined to be market beaters. This can lead us to make large, costly investment bets—and yet often we’re seeing things that simply aren’t there.

act

CHECK YOUR FUND expenses. If you own index funds, aim for weighted average annual expenses below 0.15%. If you own active funds, you’ll pay more—but allocate enough to index funds to push your portfolio average below 0.4%. By holding down costs, you’ll keep more of what you make, plus low-cost funds typically beat high-cost competitors.

Estate planning

Manifesto

NO. 59: MOST FOLKS should avoid alternative investments. Yes, they promise returns uncorrelated with the stock market and gains when shares are tumbling. But isn’t that why we own bonds?

Spotlight: Abuse

A Dirty Business

ON MONDAY, MAY 2, I logged onto my Chase bank account—and discovered my balance was $992.43, many thousands of dollars less than I expected. My first thought: I’m going to get hit with a low-balance fee.
That, alas, should have been the least of my worries.
I clicked through to see the account details, and discovered that check No. 1126 had been made out to Milton Cherry for $7,000. But none of the writing on the check was mine,

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Almost Had Me

SEVERAL MONTHS AGO, I received a phone call that left me shaken and bewildered. The voice on the other end claimed to be from the Social Security Administration. The caller informed me that my Social Security number had been compromised in a significant security breach. My heart raced as I contemplated the potential consequences, even as the urgency in the caller’s voice gave me little time to think.
The caller asked for my personal information,

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Be Careful Out There

FINANCIAL FRAUD against Americans age 60 and older costs $3 billion a year, and the average loss per incident is $120,000, according to a 2020 study by the AARP Public Policy Institute. And scams against older Americans are increasing. The FBI reports that losses more than doubled from 2019 to 2021 and internet swindles against elderly victims rose 84% in 2022.
My wife was the target of a fraud and you may have been,

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Ripoff Royalty

WHEN I WORKED FOR a personal finance magazine in the mid-1990s, I wrote a story about conmen who met their marks in internet chat rooms devoted to stock investing. One of the slickest tricksters went by the name of Josef von Habsburg. He told people he was descended from Austrian royalty.
In researching the story, I called the police in von Habsburg’s hometown of Birmingham, Michigan, a suburb of Detroit. The local police knew him as Josef Meyers and said he was about as royal as you or me.

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I want to see less of me on the internet

There is an excellent article in the Wall Street Journal about how to find what there is about you on the internet and how to delete it if you want.  Here is the Link.
I read the article followed the suggestions and it was very easy.  I hope it works.  Has anyone tried this?

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Anti-Social Behavior

A QUARTER OF ALL reported losses from fraud in 2021 originated on social media, according to the Federal Trade Commission, and those losses cost about $770 million.
Yes, social media is a popular way to keep in touch with family and friends, receive news and get information. According to Pew Research, 73% of people ages 50 to 64 used social media in 2021, as did 45% of those ages 65 and over. But using social media requires vigilance.

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Spotlight: Actor

Behave Yourself

SMART GUYS CAN DO some really dumb things. Those dumb things include behavior that seems logical, but is often a sign of addiction. The Merriam-Webster dictionary defines addiction as “a compulsive, chronic, physiological or psychological need for a habit-forming substance, behavior, or activity having harmful physical, psychological, or social effects.” Addictions come in many flavors. Some are benign, some more malignant. Many involve repeating a pattern or behavior in hopes of achieving a different outcome. And yet insanity has been defined as doing the same thing over and over again while expecting a different result—a comment, incidentally, that’s often wrongly attributed to Albert Einstein. Addictive actions are sometimes characterized as socially acceptable and sometimes not. An example of a socially approved addiction is excessive intake of coffee, while tobacco use would be placed in the malignant category because it can cause cancer. Let me share with you two of my addictions. The first borders on malignant, while the other represents a socially acceptable activity that might be benign, but can still be financially ruinous. I’ve had migraines since I was four years old. Starting in my teens, they occurred at least once a month. The treatment was Tylenol with a dash of codeine. When I began college, the dose was doubled, and a pinch of caffeine was added to the “therapy.” The migraines were manageable, or so I thought. Fast forward to 2008. I was now married with pre-teen twins and working my tail off as an assistant professor. The pressure to produce research was intense. I was also expected to teach, write grant proposals and supervise graduate students. At the same time, every day brought a new stock market low. I was smart enough to know that time was on my side in saving for retirement. I also knew…
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Withdrawal Symptoms

I SHIFTED TO WORKING part-time more than a year ago. It was a way to ease into retirement and give me time to explore new activities. My reduced work hours were also a way to experience life without the singular job focus that had defined my working years and, indeed, my identity. My new part-time status was, of course, accompanied by a markedly shrunken paycheck. That allowed my wife and me to see what it was like to be without the guaranteed and steady income we’d relied upon for nearly three decades. After more than a year of working part-time, I fully retired two months ago. Without a paycheck, our bank account balance soon fell to a level where we needed to transfer funds from savings to pay the monthly bills. The amount I transferred was equal to just over half of my fulltime monthly paycheck. The mental anguish was palpable. I knew the day would come when we’d begin spending down our financial accounts. But I was mentally unprepared for the angst and anxiety that raged inside my head. This reaction was completely emotional—and totally unexpected. Before retiring, we’d done our math, considered dozens of scenarios, and had full confidence that our savings strategy over our careers was more than sufficient to provide for our retirement needs. We knew that our savings were, in the end, meant to be spent. Still, when the time came to withdraw funds from our investment portfolio, I was unable to sleep at night and had a devastating migraine lasting several days. It took two weeks for me to gather the courage to push the transfer button and reclaim some dollars from our savings. I was in a full “deer in the headlights” panic, caught up in an emotional state that couldn’t be overcome…
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Duty Calls

SOME THINGS YOU HAVE to do yourself. A 2017 study concluded that spending money on time-saving services is correlated with greater life satisfaction. A subsequent article confirmed the finding. Rich or poor, we can boost our happiness by having others do undesirable tasks. These studies confirm what HumbleDollar readers already know: Wealth is a tool that, if used wisely, can increase our life’s satisfaction. Pay a yard service to mow the lawn. Spend money on housekeeping services. Hire someone to do the shopping, cooking or laundry. Now that I’m retired, I have plenty of time for activities I loathed to do while working. But thanks to a modicum of wealth, I have the choice to complete these tasks myself or pay others to do them. Sometimes, however, there are time-consuming obligations that can’t be delegated. Last month, I received that dreaded letter. No, not an IRS audit notice. Rather, a summons for jury duty. I contemplated if there was a way to escape this obligation. Unlikely. I have no prior criminal record and I’m not a student. I’m not yet 75 years old, nor do I take care of small children or elderly relatives. While I could possibly claim the immoral character exemption, it would be tough to provide proof. My assigned session was scheduled for 8 a.m. midweek in the heart of downtown. I’ve been retired for a year, and forgot how much construction workers enjoy slowing rush-hour traffic. Nevertheless, I managed to arrive a few minutes early. I entered the recommended city-owned garage. I’m partially colorblind, so all seven levels look identical to me. I took a picture to remember where my car was parked. There are a dozen similar photos on my phone, constantly resurfacing on my device as curated parking memories. Security procedures entering a Texas…
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A Dirty Business

I'M SLOWLY LEARNING not to let frugality prevent me from doing the things I love. One of my favorite pastimes is cooking outdoors during the heat of the summer. Nothing pairs better with steelhead trout than a homegrown, freshly picked Hungarian hot wax pepper, softened by the grill’s intense heat. The aroma of the pepper’s lightly scorched skin, complete with grill marks, is enough to make any mouth water. Simply pick the largest, throw it directly on the burner and wait patiently for the magic to occur. To appreciate the experience, you must plan ahead—which includes growing the peppers. Spring weather arrived a few weeks early in my part of Texas. I pulled out my dog-eared Old Farmer’s Almanac to check planting times. I decided to go against optimal recommendations, overconfident that my planting skills would be sufficient to protect the seedlings against the slim possibility of a late winter freeze. While starter pepper plants are common once spring is officially underway, they’re notoriously hard to find on the cusp of the growing season. My search began at my usual garden centers, but I was met with disappointment. They wouldn’t be in stock for at least two weeks. Dang. Undeterred, I expanded my search, driving through Houston in a crisscross pattern, scouring the inventory at second-tier gardening establishments. These are places where past searches have paid off, but the plants weren’t nearly as successful at surviving in my compost-enriched soil. Unfortunately, it was also too early for these places to carry the seedlings. Resolute in my desire, I even tried the big box hardware stores. Alas, still no paydirt. My search was now becoming a full-blown obsessive quest. I committed to driving, pedal to the metal, 10 miles west to a small, hidden-away urban nursery, tucked neatly on the edge…
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If Not Now, When?

WE WERE DINING WITH close friends when the conversation turned to foreign travel. Stories were recounted of ventures to exotic and faraway lands filled with inspiring people, unique cultures and historic sites. My wife and I were humbled by the sheer number of trips our friends had taken. We were shy to admit that our international travel bucket was relatively empty, and we had embarrassingly few stories to share. This wasn’t a matter of keeping up with the Joneses. We simply had neither the time nor the opportunity for international adventures while we raised our twins. At the time, that type of vacation wasn’t a priority for our family. On a whim, during our drive home, I promised my wife we’d take an international trip. We had a huge list of destinations we dreamed of visiting. Besides, we include a travel line in our annual retirement budget. If now isn’t the time to venture forth, then when?   The following evening, while sharing a cheeseboard and Moscato on our patio, Lori reminded me of my promise. I knew where this conversation was heading. I told myself that now might be a good time to refill my glass of vino.   Years of training caused my well-oiled frugal senses to once again begin to tingle. But a promise is a promise, or so my wife tells me. And now that we were both retired, there was no reason not to tackle one of our bucket list items.   As if I needed more convincing, Lori suggested we do this to celebrate the one-year anniversary of my successful brain surgery. Alas, I couldn’t refute that logic. No additional arm twisting was required.   My wife suggested Costa Rica as a destination. I’ve been a card-carrying molecular biologist for three decades, and have always…
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Blowing the Dough

MY WIFE RECENTLY traveled to Connecticut for a week to help with loose ends following her brother-in-law’s unexpected heart surgery. I was left to fend for myself, with only three hard-boiled eggs, two ounces of nearly expired low-fat milk, half a jar of gourmet salsa and a moldy cucumber to keep me company. Boredom quickly set in. For some inexplicable reason, I had an uncontrollable urge to spend money. The first activity that entered my forebrain was visiting a casino. But I know from experience that, while enjoyable, this isn’t a particularly profitable choice of entertainment. Besides, the nearest casino is three hours away. The gas alone would cost more than I wished to spend. On top of that, now that I’m officially retired, the amount I had in mind to gamble was not a justifiable cost. Sure, I budget some “blow the dough” funds for fun. But giving money to a large for-profit gambling establishment isn’t how I want my dough blown. Instead, I willed my mind to envision what I could purchase—and permanently own—with the equivalent amount of dollars. Yes, I know, this simply transfers the guilt of spending from an experience to a hedonistic purchase. I had my eye on woodworking tools, and had recently discovered a new-to-me tool supply outlet just a couple of miles away. I felt like a kid in a candy store. I bought a few tools—not particularly expensive—but ones that still made me feel pampered by the purchase. My consumeristic urges were momentarily dampened. To make sure I squashed them completely, I stopped at the local dollar store on the way home and bought a fistful of frivolous items that were also in the tool-like category: some slightly dulled disposable knife blades, almost expired batteries and brightly colored duct tape. Oh yes,…
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