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WHEN IT COMES to financial decisions, there are, as I’ve argued before, two answers to every question: what the calculator says, and how you feel about it. There’s a fly in the ointment, though: Calculator answers might appear to be based in logic, but they’re still imperfect.
Why?
Ian Wilson, a former executive at General Electric, explained it this way: “No amount of sophistication is going to allay the fact that all knowledge is about the past,
I’m someone who’s been investing for almost 8 years and am early in my life and investing journey. I have only experienced the 2020 drop, along with the April 2025 drop. Of course, both were short-lived and I continued sticking to my investment plan.
A lot of HD forum members have been through more downturn seasons. How did you deal with that? Did you “automate” your investment (a relatively new concept) and delete any phone/web apps to “trick”
I play a bit of golf – thankfully I’m not a fanatic about it, I had a game this morning. It’s definitely an enjoyable way to waste a few hours, have a good dander and a bit of craic, as you would say in my neck of the woods.
I’m not brilliant at it, and it doesn’t really bother me. I still get around the course eventually, and a 27 handicap is grand by me. Some of my mates and fellow players have a completely different approach,
When I was out for a run this morning I had a breakthrough thought as to why I’m not mega-rich. It’s quite simple: I didn’t follow all the conventional financial wisdom with the dedication needed to reach those lofty heights. Apparently I’ve failed because I thought differently about some normal pearls of wisdom.
Take the often-touted phrase, “If it appreciates, buy it; if it depreciates, lease it.” Unfortunately, I don’t think this way. I like owning my cars outright,
Laughter, the Best Medicine
We all know that laughter is the best medicine. And while Humble Dollar usually gives us wisdom about money, markets, and life, maybe it’s time to add a little humor to the mix. Let’s send Jonathan a laugh.
Now, humor is always a risk—especially across cultures. The Brits, after all, are famous for their love of irony and wordplay. But clean, clever jokes never go out of style. Here’s a start:
How many financial advisors does it take to sell an ETF?
“INVESTING IS SIMPLE,” observed HumbleDollar’s editor Jonathan Clements. “To be sure, you can make it ludicrously complicated.” And, indeed, Wall Street does just that.
According to a recent analysis by Bloomberg, the fund industry rolled out more than 640 new exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the first half of this year—an average of more than three a day. There are now more ETFs in the U.S. than there are stocks (4,300 vs. 4,200).
Here are the 1-year trailing returns for various asset classes according to Morningstar:
Bloomberg Commodity 9.16%
LBMA Gold Price PM 34.59%
Morningstar Global Core Bond GR 2.17%
Morningstar US 5-10 Year Treasury Bond 3.09%
Morningstar US 10+ Year Treasury Bond -5.85%
Morningstar US Cash T-Bill 4.63%
Morningstar US Core Bond 2.61%
Morningstar US HY Bond 8.18%
Morningstar US Market 16.79%
Morningstar US REIT -1.17%
Morningstar US Small Cap 10.85%
A portfolio which contained an equally weighted amount of each of the above would show a gain of 7.7%.
NEW RESEARCH CAN help with an age-old question: When constructing a portfolio, how much risk is too much? Especially today, with the market again near all-time highs, this is an important issue.
On the one hand, we could dismiss this concern by noting that all-time highs aren’t as uncommon as they might seem. According to one analysis, the U.S. stock market has been within 5% of an all-time high on 44% of trading days since the 1950s.
I want to ladder some CDs and the best rates are with online banks. There are so many to choose from—which banks have you used and would recommend? I have not found my credit union or local banks to be competitive. TIA
The Dividend Irrelevance Theory
Today, I’m going to channel my inner “RDQ” and raise some peoples ire:
About one month ago, there was a post about dividends. It contained quite a bit of what I will politely call, “magical thinking”. Despite my linking two excellent articles which debunk the dividend myth, clearly subsequent posters did not bother to read either of them and persisted in posting the dividend dogma that commonly persists. I even resorted to asking Jonathan to chime in (which he kindly did) as too many folks seemed to still not be “getting it”,
ANDREW CARNEGIE USED to say that competitors were welcome to tour his factory, to see his production line up close. Why? Because of Carnegie Steel’s massive scale and complex operations, he was confident no one would ever be able to replicate what he’d built.
Hedge fund manager Seth Klarman is a modern-day Carnegie. Klarman founded the Boston-based Baupost Group in 1982, and while performance numbers aren’t publicly available, the firm’s track record is believed to be among the best in the industry.
I was reminded recently of how far stock trading has come when I inherited a small stack of old stock certificates from my great-uncle Billy. They were dated between 1927 and 1931, right through the turbulent years of the Great Depression. One was for a railroad, issued by Citibank itself. And yes—I checked—they’re now completely worthless. But holding those fragile pieces of paper in my hands brought history to life. Back then, making a trade was slow,
I have invested in the Fidelity Floating Rate High Income Fund (FFRHX) for many years. Morningstar classifies it as a bank loan fund. The expense ratio is 0.73% and it is yielding 7.78%. It loans money to BB and B rated companies and adjusts the interest charges every few months so duration is minimal. Is there any significant difference between a fund like this and private credit?
Readers’ responses to an earlier post on volunteering to teach a module on investing in index funds and ETFs to high school students electing to take a new personal finance course were very helpful (and brutally honest!), Consistent with those suggestions, the “text” will be Bogle’s deceptively simple, The Little Book of Common Sense Investing. Evans and Malkiel’s The Index Fund Solution: A Step-By-Step Investor’s Guide is the workbook. What follows will probably be the first overnight reading assignment aimed at defusing some of the reservations teenagers night have about investing in the market.
ONE OF THE MARKET’S worst-performing stocks over the past year was, not long ago, one of its best. Novo Nordisk is the Danish company that pioneered the hugely popular weight-loss drug Wegovy, also known as Ozempic. After it hit the market in 2021, the company’s stock rallied, tripling over the following three years. Since then, however, things have been far more challenging. Over the past 12 months, the stock has dropped 60%.
This highlights a key challenge for investors: On the one hand,