THIS WILL SOUND like heresy to buy-and-hold investors. But I believe risks are building within the financial system—and we ignore these risks at our peril.
If you’re a diehard buy-and-hold investor who, come hell or high water, plans to dollar-cost average into the stock market, feel free to skip this article. It is not for you. On the other hand, if you believe—as I do—that there are more and less advantageous times to invest one’s capital,

YOU COULD ARGUE that U.S. stocks are reasonably priced, with the S&P 500 companies trading at 22 times their reported earnings for the past 12 months. That’s not much above the 50-year average of 19.3—and hardly outrageous, given today’s modest bond yields.
But you could also argue that U.S. shares are horribly overpriced. The S&P 500 stocks today offer a dividend yield of just 1.9%, versus a 50-year average of 2.9%. Shares also seem pricey compared to both the value of corporate assets and average company profits for the past 10 years.

WE GET MORE PAIN from losses than pleasure from gains—which might explain why I often think back on the five major market crashes that have occurred during my investing lifetime. There’s something about the massive hemorrhaging of money that has a way of focusing the mind and sticking in the memory.
Here are those five crashes, and what I learned from each:
Black Monday. I was age 24—with no money invested in stocks—when the S&P 500 plunged 20.5% on Oct.

THE YIELD CURVE HAS lately received a lot of press. Specifically, the inversion of the yield curve has many people worried that a recession is around the corner. I’ve been spending a lot of time recently thinking about the yield curve. I need to get a life, right?
You may be asking yourself, “Why should I even care about the yield curve, whatever that is?” Here’s why: The yield curve has inverted prior to every U.S.

I RECENTLY RECEIVED some odd communications from mutual fund giant Vanguard Group.
First, it sent a white paper, “Here today, gone tomorrow: The impact of economic surprises on asset returns.” As the title suggests, this paper examines the relationship between the economy and the stock market. In particular, the authors asked whether accurate economic forecasts could help an active trader profit in the stock market. Their conclusion: To beat a simple buy-and-hold strategy, an investor’s predictions would need to be accurate 75% of the time.

WITH INCREASING frequency over the past month, I’ve been hearing the question, “Why does the stock market keep going down? I understand why the market dipped when the Fed raised interest rates, but why does it keep going down day after day?”
If you’ve been feeling unnerved by recent headlines, you aren’t alone. After gaining 10% in 2018 through late-September, the U.S. stock market reversed course and gave up that entire 10% over the course of just two months,

IF THE STOCK MARKET decline resumes, we’ll soon be reading articles about remorseful everyday investors bemoaning their earlier foolishness.
No doubt some folks have been foolish. Perhaps they’ve belatedly discovered that Amazon and Apple aren’t one-way tickets to wealth, that they aren’t the investment geniuses they imagined, or that they misjudged their courageousness and shouldn’t be 100% in stocks.
But mostly, I view these articles as patronizing garbage that propagate the myth that all amateur investors are clueless and all professionals are super-savvy.

RECENT WEEKS HAVE been challenging for our country. We’ve seen horrific terrorist attacks. The midterm elections suggest the U.S. is deeply divided. While the economy has been doing well, the stock market has started to wobble. October, in fact, was the market’s worst month since 2011.
For all these reasons, folks have been asking me whether they should steer clear of the stock market for a while, until the dust settles. That sounds sensible—until you realize the difficult steps involved:
Step 1: Predict what’s going to happen and when.

“I DON’T KNOW.” Those may be the three toughest words for an investor to utter—and yet perhaps also the most important.
Despite the robust rebound of recent days, the S&P 500 is still down 6.5% from its September all-time high. Indeed, U.S. stocks just suffered their worst monthly loss since 2011. What should we make of the craziness? Here are five crucial unanswered questions:
1. Where are stocks headed?
As the saying goes,

IF THIS IS THE START of a bear market, share prices have a lot further to fall: The S&P 500 is down just 9.4% from its all-time high—and yet one of the most important lessons may have already been learned.
No, I’m not going to mock those who have lately proclaimed that stocks are the only investment worth owning. I don’t intend to belittle those who assume that U.S. shares can defy investment theory,

AFTER A DECADE of rising stock prices, it’s time to look forward to the next bear market—and the three big benefits it’ll confer.
First, a market decline is a great financial gift, but only if you continue to save and invest. While it certainly won’t feel like a gift, a bear market enables you to invest at lower prices, both by adding new savings and reinvesting dividends.
Imagine you could choose from among three possible stock market scenarios.

I AM NOT AN investment expert. I am befuddled by such things as puts and calls. Who is putting what where?
I do know the difference between stocks and bonds. I know that bond prices go up when interest rates go down, and vice versa, and I eventually figured out why. I also know stock markets are used to raise capital and that shareholders are actually owners of a company, but with little power or influence,

THE SELF-PROCLAIMED fortune-teller Nostradamus published more than 6,000 predictions during his lifetime. With the benefit of hindsight, it’s easy to see that his prophecies had little substance or predictive value. In fact, in his day, even astrologers dismissed Nostradamus as incompetent.
But what if the person making a prediction is the opposite of Nostradamus? What if he is a serious individual, someone who is universally respected and whose forecasts have a demonstrated track record of success?

I’M STILL WAITING. Along with many others, I have spent much of my investing career expecting five key financial trends to play themselves out—and yet they’ve stubbornly refused to do so.
Sure, these predictions could still come true. But I have my doubts. Maybe these five financial forecasts aren’t the slam dunk they appear:
1. Stocks will revert to average historical valuations. Whether you look at price-earnings ratios, cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratios,

WE HAVE CRAZY STOCK market valuations in the U.S.—and yet investors don’t seem especially crazed, at least compared to the two great buying manias of recent decades.
Six months before the housing market peaked in mid-2006, I remember attending a New Year’s Day party where real-estate investing was—no exaggeration—the sole topic of conversation. I recall colleagues walking into open houses and, after quickly looking around, bidding above the asking price. I remember emails belittling my intelligence for cautioning readers about the likely return from real estate.