BANK OF AMERICA’S monthly fund manager survey takes the pulse of portfolio managers around the world. The latest survey was released last week—and some of the results weren’t so rosy.
Despite a record-breaking quarter for corporate profits, which blew past analysts’ predictions, money managers have turned more bearish. Perhaps recent market volatility, especially among foreign stocks, has caused jitters. Also casting an ominous cloud is the Delta variant’s global spread. On top of that,

REMEMBER 2020’S BIG market swings? Financial markets have been more boring of late. But are things too quiet?
The VIX is the most  commonly cited indicator of market volatility. Turn on CNBC or flip through The Wall Street Journal and you’ll likely learn the latest reading for the “fear gauge.” Last Friday’s close was among the lowest of the year, with the VIX at a little more than 15, versus an historical average closer to 20.

MONEY MANAGER GMO recently noted that, “There are no bad assets just bad prices.” The occasion was the S&P 500’s price outrunning earnings by 70% over the seven years through March. GMO’s punchline: The same thing happened in the seven years that ended with the dot-com peak in March 2000. This, of course, did not end well.
Two decades ago, I remember a friend telling me of steep losses in his retirement savings, the result of moving his entire 401(k) into aggressive,

FINANCE NERD THAT I am, I gleefully dug into the 2021 Capital Markets Fact Book that was just published by SIFMA. I was particularly humbled by a chart showing the breakdown of the global stock and bond markets. Why humbled? The data show just how great we U.S. investors have had it in the past decade.
The Fact Book first displays the $58 trillion global stock market’s composition in 2010.

THE MOST FAMOUS market-timing (mis)statement may be that of Irving Fisher, who—as a result—ultimately suffered a fate similar to that of President Herbert Hoover. Both men are inextricably linked to the Great Depression, despite a lifetime of achievement and their positive work to improve the lives of humans everywhere. Fisher, whose theories on capital, interest rates and lifecycle investing are still relied on by economists today, will likely continue to be remembered for his statement nine days before the 1929 market crash that,

THE RAGING DEBATE of 2021 is whether the inflation we’ve been experiencing this year will be transitory or more permanent. The Federal Reserve’s official stance is that the spike in inflation is a perfect storm of pent-up demand, supply-chain disruptions and year-over-year comparisons that are “inflated” relative to 2020’s pandemic-induced deflation, and eventually will revert to more normal levels.
Recent hotter than expected inflation data—including the consumer price index (CPI), producer price index (PPI),

JULY WAS ANOTHER positive month for U.S. stocks, which gained 1.7%. But overseas markets were down 1.4%, with emerging markets faring even worse, tumbling 5.9%.
Last week, the Chinese government clamped down on its education and technology industries, sparking a sharp selloff. The return of Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF (symbol: VWO), which is 40% Chinese stocks, briefly turned negative for the year, while U.S. stocks continue to sport year-to-date gains of more than 15%.

ARE THERE TIMES when a near 100% international stock allocation makes sense? I believe there are—and that today is just such a moment.
Never in my life have I had such a low allocation to U.S. stocks. My overall portfolio is 60% stocks and 40% bonds. But the stock portion is comprised of just 15% U.S., with the remainder held in international stocks, split evenly between emerging and developed markets.
I realize that’s unorthodox.

I HAVE TO ADMIT IT, I’m one of those guys who likes to hide money. I have cash hidden in a couple of places in my house and even in the garage. And I’m not talking about a few dollars. I probably have more than $3,000 in denominations large and small tucked in envelopes. I also have a jar of coins.
You might ask, “Why in the world would someone have so much cash lying around the house?” I keep it on hand in case of an emergency.

IT MIGHT SEEM LIKE an obscure academic question: Do stocks truly follow a random walk or can we count on them reverting to the mean? Depending on which side we favor in this debate, it can make a huge difference to how we invest—and to our confidence as investors.
Like me, many HumbleDollar readers have most or all their investment dollars in index funds. A key reason we invest this way: It’s impossible to predict which stocks will shine because they follow a random walk.

IMAGINE A MARKET genie offered you the choice between knowing the stock market’s return next year or the stock market’s average return over the next 10 to 15 years. Which would you choose?
I’m guessing that most people would prefer to know how the stock market will do next year. After all, that seems like more actionable information, plus who has the patience to wait a decade or longer? But for those with an investing time horizon of more than 10 years—the vast majority of us—knowing the stock market’s return over the next decade or longer is far more valuable information.

AN MIT PROFESSOR named Edward Lorenz published a paper in 1972 titled Predictability: Does the Flap of a Butterfly’s Wings in Brazil Set off a Tornado in Texas?

It was a catchy title. Though Lorenz didn’t mean it literally, the basic idea was that events in the physical world are highly interconnected—more so than they might appear.

The world of investments is similarly interconnected in ways that aren’t always visible. Just like the weather,

THE ECONOMY IS recovering and the stock market has recovered. The pandemic isn’t over, but it seems we’re past the worst, at least in the U.S. Feeling better? Take a deep breath, take a step back—and think about the past two decades.
Since early 2000, we’ve had three major stock market declines, or roughly one every decade:

In 2000-02, the S&P 500 tumbled 49%, excluding dividends. The first leg down was triggered by the bursting of the dot-com bubble.