“I DON’T KNOW.” Those may be the three toughest words for an investor to utter—and yet perhaps also the most important.
Despite the robust rebound of recent days, the S&P 500 is still down 6.5% from its September all-time high. Indeed, U.S. stocks just suffered their worst monthly loss since 2011. What should we make of the craziness? Here are five crucial unanswered questions:
1. Where are stocks headed?
As the saying goes,

IF THIS IS THE START of a bear market, share prices have a lot further to fall: The S&P 500 is down just 9.4% from its all-time high—and yet one of the most important lessons may have already been learned.
No, I’m not going to mock those who have lately proclaimed that stocks are the only investment worth owning. I don’t intend to belittle those who assume that U.S. shares can defy investment theory,

AFTER A DECADE of rising stock prices, it’s time to look forward to the next bear market—and the three big benefits it’ll confer.
First, a market decline is a great financial gift, but only if you continue to save and invest. While it certainly won’t feel like a gift, a bear market enables you to invest at lower prices, both by adding new savings and reinvesting dividends.
Imagine you could choose from among three possible stock market scenarios.

I AM NOT AN investment expert. I am befuddled by such things as puts and calls. Who is putting what where?
I do know the difference between stocks and bonds. I know that bond prices go up when interest rates go down, and vice versa, and I eventually figured out why. I also know stock markets are used to raise capital and that shareholders are actually owners of a company, but with little power or influence,

THE SELF-PROCLAIMED fortune-teller Nostradamus published more than 6,000 predictions during his lifetime. With the benefit of hindsight, it’s easy to see that his prophecies had little substance or predictive value. In fact, in his day, even astrologers dismissed Nostradamus as incompetent.
But what if the person making a prediction is the opposite of Nostradamus? What if he is a serious individual, someone who is universally respected and whose forecasts have a demonstrated track record of success?

I’M STILL WAITING. Along with many others, I have spent much of my investing career expecting five key financial trends to play themselves out—and yet they’ve stubbornly refused to do so.
Sure, these predictions could still come true. But I have my doubts. Maybe these five financial forecasts aren’t the slam dunk they appear:
1. Stocks will revert to average historical valuations. Whether you look at price-earnings ratios, cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratios,

WE HAVE CRAZY STOCK market valuations in the U.S.—and yet investors don’t seem especially crazed, at least compared to the two great buying manias of recent decades.
Six months before the housing market peaked in mid-2006, I remember attending a New Year’s Day party where real-estate investing was—no exaggeration—the sole topic of conversation. I recall colleagues walking into open houses and, after quickly looking around, bidding above the asking price. I remember emails belittling my intelligence for cautioning readers about the likely return from real estate.

I LOVE THE QUESTIONS that kids ask. This week, my first grader told me he had heard the word “caricature” and wanted to know what it meant. I explained it and then we went online to see some examples. In our highly politicized culture, we didn’t have to look far to see some exaggerated cartoon depictions of various political leaders.
It occurred to me, though, that our posture toward investments isn’t all that different.

THE MARKET IS ALWAYS right. It may have a different opinion tomorrow—perhaps radically different—but that doesn’t mean current prices aren’t the right ones.
Holler all you want that the stock market ought to be far lower. I do a fair amount of that myself (though the shouting is more akin to grumpy mumbling). But whether we like today’s share prices or not, they reflect the collective wisdom of all investors—and, if we want to buy or sell,

IF THIS TURNS OUT to be a major bear market, there will be a slew of articles to be written. It’s the negative correlation enjoyed by every financial writer: Even as our portfolios shrink, our potential for pontification soars.
But what if the market bounces back? It’s almost too painful to contemplate. Think of all the articles that won’t get written. If the past week’s rally continues, here are 10 stories that will have to wait for the next market downturn:
1.

WARREN BUFFETT ONCE quipped that, “You only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out.”
I’ve been thinking about this idea over the past two weeks, as markets around the world have given up all their year-to-date gains and then some. Since peaking on Jan. 26, the U.S. market, as measured by the S&P 500, has lost 8.8% of its value.
When the tide goes out like this, the emotional impact can be powerful—and the headlines just make it worse.

AFTER THE WILD RIDE of the past two weeks, stock investors are in search of reassurance. Will this movie have a happy ending?
If we’re venturing into the stock market, we should ideally have at least a 15-year time horizon. That gives us 10 years to make money and another five years to look for the exit. Those final five years may prove crucial if the first 10 years don’t turn out so well.

SO WE’RE ALL POORER, right? The S&P 500-stock index has fallen 10.2% over the past nine trading days. Yet all we’ve done is give back a sliver of the huge gains notched since 2009. My contention: Not only is much of the handwringing unjustified, but arguably it’s also wrongheaded.

Seasoned investors don’t get nervous when the market declines. Rather, they get excited by the prospect of buying shares at much cheaper prices. So far,

WHEN MARKETS GO crazy, financial writers feel compelled to dust off the keyboard and cook up profound insights. But I am writing this at 5 a.m., while still ingesting my first cup of coffee, so I’m setting the bar a little lower. Here are 12 modest observations following yesterday’s 4.1% plunge by the S&P 500:
1.  I don’t know. You don’t know. Nobody knows. The market turmoil of the past six trading days feels like a sea change after 2017’s remarkable calm.

I FEAR I’M GROWING wealthy at my children’s expense. My investing life began in the late 1980s. Yes, there have been stock market bumps since then, notably the 2000-02 and 2007-09 market crashes, and even a minor hiccup over the past week. But if you look at the broad trend, it’s been three decades of rising stock market valuations.
From year-end 1987 to year-end 2017, the S&P 500’s price-earnings multiple climbed from 13.8 to 24.6,