MORGAN HOUSEL, author of The Psychology of Money, once made this observation: “Before the 1700s, the richest members of society had among the shortest lives—meaningfully below that of the overall population.”
It was counterintuitive, but Housel cited a hypothesis, developed by historian T.H. Hollingsworth, to make sense of it: “The best explanation is that the rich were the only ones who could afford all the quack medicines and sham doctors who peddled hope but increased your odds of being poisoned.”
Housel then added this thought: “I would bet good money the same happens today with investing advice.” Wealthy folks,
Generally it’s reported that the more an investor makes changes to their portfolio the worse their returns are. I am guilty of this as I make several changes per year.
Morningstar’s most recent Mind the Gap report for 2024 reports the following:
We estimate that the average dollar invested in US mutual funds and exchange-traded funds earned 6.3% per year over the 10 years ended Dec. 31, 2023. That is approximately 1.1% per year less than the average fund’s total return (of 7.4%) over the same period assuming an initial lump-sum purchase.
BENJAMIN GRAHAM, the father of investment analysis, made this observation: “The investor’s chief problem—even his worst enemy—is likely to be himself.”
Why? One reason is our intuition can sometimes lead us astray. Things that seem like they make sense, and seem like they ought to be true, often turn out not to be supported by the data.
Perhaps the best-known example is the divergence between growth and value stocks. Intuition suggests that growth stocks—companies like Apple and Amazon—would deliver better performance than their more pedestrian peers on the value side of the market.
I was going through some files this morning and happened upon a printout of my portfolio on 4/1/99, probably because this was the first time it totaled 100k.
This is what I held:
These were the Vanguard funds:
20% Healthcare (I was a physical therapist, buy what you know)
22% Growth and Income
19% Growth Index
20% Total Bond
6% Small Cap Index
5% Pacific Stock (I believe the Japan market was hot)
8% Janus Worldwide (it was the hot Janus fund)
IT’S AN ARGUMENT I’ll never win. But perhaps I can sow a few seeds of doubt.
The anti-foreign-stock drumbeat has grown louder with each additional year that international markets underperform U.S. shares. Indeed, even though foreign stocks beat U.S. shares in the 1970s, 1980s and 2000s, there are folks today who argue there’s no reason to own foreign shares.
Really? Before you throw in the towel, ask yourself six questions:
1. If U.S.
In late 1981, not long before my 19th birthday, I left Bryanston—my second and final English boarding school—for the last time. I didn’t graduate. Nobody did. At the time, graduation simply wasn’t a thing at English schools, and apparently it still isn’t.
Instead, I’d taken the Cambridge entrance exam, marking the end of my nine years at boarding school. With the exams over, it was time to pack my bags and head back to Washington, DC,
As Jonathon and many others have advocated on this site, avoiding life style creep, and not climbing aboard the hedonistic treadmill, keeping it simple, etc., are sure fire ways to have a really good chance of achieving financial success. Also, keeping the assets in the correct account types, diversifying and rebalancing are critical , as well as taking the long term view.
It appears to me that Warren Buffett has long been a tremendous example of following that advice.
In January 2020 I invested inherited six figures cash in Vanguard’s Intermediate Term Bond ETF (BIV). The rational was that this money would not be tapped for more than 5 years (just did to replace a dying car with a new Toyota) so during the interim I would expect to gain significantly more return than investing in CDs.
The plan was going great and by 7/2021 I had earned over 13K in returns. Even in 12/2021 I had earned nearly 10K in gains.
NOW THAT I’M RETIRED and have all the time in the world, I often use that time to worry about money. That brings me to a recent offer from Wells Fargo to get a $525 bonus for depositing $25,000 in a savings account for 90 days.
My immediate concern was whether the $525 would more than compensate for the paltry interest rate that Wells Fargo pays. A quick calculation determined that investing $25,000 in a Wells Fargo savings account and getting the $525 bonus—rather than the 4.25% I could then earn with Capital One 360 Performance Savings—would still leave me almost $260 ahead.
I’m wondering if any other HD readers have run into this policy at TRowe Price?
Here’s what happened:
I am trying to get my year end portfolio in alignment. I am trying to generate cash to fund my taxable withdrawals from two inherited IRAs for the next two years.
On 1/29 I sold a balanced fund in an account in mother’s name and transferred the proceeds into a money market fund in the same account.
Today I tried to do the same trade in my father’s account and a T Rowe supervisor said I could not do that due to their frequent trading policy as the first sale was >
There is a fund run by Cathie Wood, the ticker is, ARKK ,Ark innovation fund, it gets a negative rating from Morningstar, alas, perhaps with the climate change, it could be suitable if we ever get another flood of biblical proportions?
There is an old movie, ” Arachnophobia”, about some troublesome spiders. I suggest to buy the S and P the Standard and Poors Depository receipts, Spiders fund, perhaps.
For the hep and cool cats, I suggest trading both AT and T,
Who knew dividend-paying stocks were so controversial? Some view them as a great way to generate retirement income and lower a portfolio’s risk level, while others shun such stocks as tax-inefficient and dismiss their owners as irrational.
But wherever you stand on this issue, keep a key notion in mind: At some point in their life, we need publicly traded companies to start returning cash to shareholders—or there’s a risk they’ll disappear without creating any wealth for investors over their lifetime.
I recently listened to a podcast discussing “longevity income” ETFs from an outfit called LifeX. It appears that the money is invested in treasuries, and the fund returns both interest and a portion of capital each month, with the expectation of exhausting the fund by a target date. It seems to be intended as an alternative to a TIPS or bond ladder, but costs 50 basis points initially and carries no guarantee.
I’d appreciate others’ views on this.
The obvious answer is that it depends on your financial situation, age, net worth and risk tolerance. I am trying to decide on the right amount of cash I should hold.
I found this through internet search on this topic:
“According to the U.S. Trust Survey of Affluent Americans, investors with over $3 million in investable assets typically hold around 15% of their portfolios in cash and cash equivalents. However, the amount of cash an investor holds can vary depending on their age and net worth:
AN ANCIENT FINANCIAL concept is gaining newfound popularity.
In his book Politics, Aristotle related a story about a fellow philosopher named Thales, who lived about 2,600 years ago. One winter, Thales made a prediction about the coming olive harvest. He felt that it was going to be a strong year. But because recent harvests had been weak, most people disagreed with him. To Thales, this meant opportunity. He approached the owners of olive presses in his town with a proposition.