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O.K., I Give Up, You Win!

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AUTHOR: Michael l Berard on 11/01/2024

I have been getting more and more frustrated with many friends and relatives, I have tried, in vain , to share what I have learned from HumbleDollar, Ben Graham, William Bernstein , et.al..

I have decided that henceforth, whenever someone asks me what they should do with some cash, perhaps from the sale of a house in an estate sale, a small inheritance, or what investments to choose in a retirement plan, I now say, ” I am not qualified to advise you, even free of any fees ,as per usual,  because I have a sneaking feeling that when you hear or read any type negative news ,and markets crash,you will have a meltdown,and do the polar opposite of what logic and history suggests, and then you will be irritated and/or angry with me and I do not want that to occur, and then you will avoid me for decades and perhaps berate me in public or even ghost me, yell at my dog, and secretly hope that I may have to listen to country or rap music when I die and go to Hell with the fire and brimstone ,for longer than eternity and also infinity,  and I will be bedeviled by a guy with a pitchfork ( no pun intended) and horns and that will not be good.  ( As evidenced by you doing exactly that, in the past, and life is too short, etc.)

Ha ha, of course, I do not say all of that . I simply make a confused type looking face, throw my hands skyward, and say, ” It beats the Hell out of me!”* Naturally, this is only effective for persons that are in the same room with me. During phone conversations or texting  then I suggest reading a book or two, I am informed that they have no time. Or I speak in my robotic voice, thus, ” I am sorry, the number you have reached is  not in service”,etc.

Here are a few of the things  I have been told by very smart people, guys whom have built their entire house, only subbing out the foundation , plumbing and septic work.

One of them cut the trees down ,all by himself,  used his father’s small sawmill to make the wood used to frame the house, and that house will be standing centuries from now.

Another friend is so talented that he finds old Model T cars, abandoned in the woods, and rebuilds them , the finished product looks like it just rolled off the assembly line.

A couple of them are computer whizzes, coding, building their own computers, etc. For example, wife and I tried , in vain, a bit ago, to transfer data and phone records,  and texts from a galaxy phone to an Iphone, with zero success. My co-worker got it done while  hungover, and talking on his his own phone, catching grief from the wife for drinking too much, and so forth. It took him 6 minutes. That time would have been much less if he didn’t keep falling asleep.

Alas, here a few of the comments and ideas I have heard from these very intelligent people.

  1.  The best method for becoming wealthy, is to buy a house and keep it for a long time.
  2. The store on the corner is the best place to buy lottery tickets, they have had 6 million dollar winners in the last year.
  3. The stock market is far too risky, even for long time frames, it could go to zero!
  4. It is always better, financially, to buy a car , brand new, and dump it as soon as it is off warranty, that way, you never get hit with expensive repairs.
  5. Mike, didn’t you hear about that terrible mutual fund scandal , years ago? Those people will never get their money back!
  6. I don’t contribute to the 401(K) with the company match because, the rich people control the markets, and they will steal all of the money.
  7. I panicked when the market dropped and I cashed out my 401, and paid 30 grand in taxes and early withdrawal penalties. I have no regrets, better safe than sorry. I know I am only 30 years old, but, I am no longer interested in even the target date fund from  that Vanguard the money was in. ( I asked him when if he was so worried, he didn’t just exchange the money into the money market fund within the plan. ” Too risky!”)
  8. I work so hard as a food and beverage worker, and I only got a thousand dollar tax refund! So unfair! And the billionaires don’t pay any taxes, they have all the loopholes!”
  9. The only reason Warren Buffett and his buddies donate so much to charity is so they can get a huge deduction on their taxes.
  10. Finally,lucky for you, I do advise never playing any lottery, as the average return is anywhere from negative 30 to negative 50 percent. The largest prizes are taxed so heavily, of course, indeed, when a billion dollar prize is awarded , if the lump sum is selected, well over half goes to the state and federal people. The annuity payments over 30 years, allows the states to earn interest on that pile of money, of course. Tails I win, heads, you lose.   I am often told, ” If you don’t play, you cannot win.”

* Decades ago, I worked at the Heald Machine Division of Cincinnati -Milacron in central Mass. , and when things went south, and I mean Antarctica south,  which happened with alarming frequency, The ” Heald Wave”  was initiated, very similar to the signal for a touchdown in football, it is performed by  throwing both hands skyward ,arching your back,  and  swearing a lot. Then , followed by, ” Oh well, that’s the way it goes in the machine tool business!”

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Linda Grady
1 month ago

My dad, mentioned here before, had his own system for investing, did his research and then requested trades through his broker. One rule was to sell when his investment hit a target. I clearly remember him complaining about the grief his coworkers would give him when they asked for his advice, failed to follow it and then lost money. Some things never change.

GaryW
1 month ago

I recall one co-worker who kept bugging me for stock tips. This was back in the late 1980s to early 1990s, before index funds were common. I knew that he would never have the patience to be a buy-and-hold investor. I did quite well with individual stocks, but I held many of them for 10-15 years. I also got extremely lucky with some of them.

My three best stocks were all in boring industries. One was my very first stock purchase, PepsiCo. In another case, a new coworker and his wife lamented that their favorite store chain didn’t have any local stores. I did a little investigating and ended up buying Walmart stock a couple of years before I ever saw one of their stores. The third stock was Paychex, the payroll processor. Those three winners easily made up for all the mediocre and outright clunkers that I bought. I usually only bought 50-100 shares of a stock and never bought more later.

Even though my stocks made it possible for me to retire at 51, I realized that there was a high amount of luck involved and that it would be unlikely for me to repeat it. All my investments are now in index funds.

Scott Dichter
1 month ago

Don’t be so hard on grandma. She was born into a completely different set of economic notions, how govts managed the economy. In the days when deflation was as common as inflation, bank failures were considered part of a market based economy, keeping cash at home was a commonplace occurrence (and it made sense).

Younger people have no such excuse

Dan Smith
1 month ago

A Quinn worthy rant indeed. I feel you frustration Mike.

Scott Dichter
1 month ago

Do you think that people who aren’t willing to spend an hour or two to learn from primary sources are good candidates to follow an investing strategy.

Jonathan Clements
Admin
1 month ago

Perhaps two decades ago, at a party, I was accosted by a guy who knew I worked for The Wall Street Journal. He began spouting his litany of bad investment strategies — timing the market, trading listed options, chasing hot stocks. I knew he was beyond saving, so I just listened. I later learned that he took my silence as a glowing endorsement of his foolishness.

Dan Smith
1 month ago

Jonathan, that reminds me of a couple coworkers who bought knock off Rolex watches for $75 each. They took them to a jeweler to size the watch bands and asked if they got a good deal. They took his evasive answer to mean they indeed got a bargain. 

Linda Grady
1 month ago
Reply to  Dan Smith

People believe what they want to believe.

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