I RECENTLY RECEIVED some odd communications from mutual fund giant Vanguard Group.
First, it sent a white paper, “Here today, gone tomorrow: The impact of economic surprises on asset returns.” As the title suggests, this paper examines the relationship between the economy and the stock market. In particular, the authors asked whether accurate economic forecasts could help an active trader profit in the stock market. Their conclusion: To beat a simple buy-and-hold strategy, an investor’s predictions would need to be accurate 75% of the time.

YOUR INVESTMENT holdings might include an asset that’s dropped in value since you bought it. Still, you have great hopes for the investment: While you’d like to sell and get the tax loss, you really hate to part with your old friend. Should you instead sell it to your spouse or your child?
You can usually claim losses on investments when you sell them. But IRS code section 267 generally disallows deductions for losses on sales to certain family members and other related parties.

WITH INCREASING frequency over the past month, I’ve been hearing the question, “Why does the stock market keep going down? I understand why the market dipped when the Fed raised interest rates, but why does it keep going down day after day?”
If you’ve been feeling unnerved by recent headlines, you aren’t alone. After gaining 10% in 2018 through late-September, the U.S. stock market reversed course and gave up that entire 10% over the course of just two months,

IF THE STOCK MARKET decline resumes, we’ll soon be reading articles about remorseful everyday investors bemoaning their earlier foolishness.
No doubt some folks have been foolish. Perhaps they’ve belatedly discovered that Amazon and Apple aren’t one-way tickets to wealth, that they aren’t the investment geniuses they imagined, or that they misjudged their courageousness and shouldn’t be 100% in stocks.
But mostly, I view these articles as patronizing garbage that propagate the myth that all amateur investors are clueless and all professionals are super-savvy.

HOW THINGS LOOK depend on where you stand. Trying to figure out how to respond to the market drop? After the initial slump, a brief rally and then another decline, the S&P 500 is down 10% from its September all-time closing high of 2930.75.
History suggests that, five years from now, share prices will be no lower than they are today, and 10 years from now they’ll be handsomely higher. But at times like this,

ALLAN ROTH LIKES to describe himself as argumentative—and, on that score, it’s hard to argue with him. But it’s also hard to argue with the points he makes, because he has this nasty habit of being right.
Roth is the author of How a Second Grader Beats Wall Street, a financial planner who charges by the hour, and a contributor of financial articles to AARP.org, Financial-Planning.com, NextAvenue.org and other sites. I caught up with him last month at the Bogleheads’ conference in Philadelphia.

RECENT WEEKS HAVE been challenging for our country. We’ve seen horrific terrorist attacks. The midterm elections suggest the U.S. is deeply divided. While the economy has been doing well, the stock market has started to wobble. October, in fact, was the market’s worst month since 2011.
For all these reasons, folks have been asking me whether they should steer clear of the stock market for a while, until the dust settles. That sounds sensible—until you realize the difficult steps involved:
Step 1: Predict what’s going to happen and when.

“I DON’T KNOW.” Those may be the three toughest words for an investor to utter—and yet perhaps also the most important.
Despite the robust rebound of recent days, the S&P 500 is still down 6.5% from its September all-time high. Indeed, U.S. stocks just suffered their worst monthly loss since 2011. What should we make of the craziness? Here are five crucial unanswered questions:
1. Where are stocks headed?
As the saying goes,

MY FIRST JOB WAS in 1963, at age 12, delivering newspapers for the Los Angeles Herald Examiner. There must have been at least five children from my neighborhood who were newspaper carriers. Today, you rarely see anyone delivering newspapers. The Herald Examiner went out of business in 1989.
My next job, as a teenager, was working at a machine shop that made tools for aerospace companies, such as McDonnell Douglas and Rockwell North American.

RECENT MARKET turbulence, including today’s sharp stock market drop, has been a wakeup call for many investors. Feeling queasy? It isn’t too late to make portfolio changes: The S&P 500 may be down 9% from its all-time high, but it’s still up an eye-popping 293% since March 2009.
Here are three quick calculations that might spur you to action—or help ease your mind:
1. How much cash do you need from your portfolio over the next five years?

IF THIS IS THE START of a bear market, share prices have a lot further to fall: The S&P 500 is down just 9.4% from its all-time high—and yet one of the most important lessons may have already been learned.
No, I’m not going to mock those who have lately proclaimed that stocks are the only investment worth owning. I don’t intend to belittle those who assume that U.S. shares can defy investment theory,

IN THE MID-1990s, Federal Express had a problem. Though the company’s safety record was exemplary, regulators had proposed new rules that would have posed an operational nightmare for the giant shipper.
The company flew Boeing 727 air freighters that each accommodated eight containers. Though they had never had a problem, the government’s concern was that if two heavier-than-average containers were loaded next to each other, it could cause the plane to become dangerously unbalanced.

I DON’T WANT BONDS in my portfolio—or, at least, not to the degree traditionally recommended in financial planning guidelines.
For years, I had accepted the premise that bonds should be included in a serious investor’s portfolio. Not that I necessarily followed that dictum. But I accepted the idea that young people should have a low percentage in bonds, and increasingly greater percentages through middle age and retirement.
I kept thinking that someday I’d come around to more bonds,

AS YOU NO DOUBT noticed, the stock market took investors on a wild ride last week. On Wednesday, the Dow industrials dropped more than 800 points. On Thursday, the Dow lost another 546 points. Friday was better, up 287 points, but there was still plenty of stomach-churning volatility.
At times like this, I’m reminded of Warren Buffett’s motto: “You want to be greedy when others are fearful, and you want to be fearful when others are greedy.” While that certainly sounds logical,

AFTER A DECADE of rising stock prices, it’s time to look forward to the next bear market—and the three big benefits it’ll confer.
First, a market decline is a great financial gift, but only if you continue to save and invest. While it certainly won’t feel like a gift, a bear market enables you to invest at lower prices, both by adding new savings and reinvesting dividends.
Imagine you could choose from among three possible stock market scenarios.