I DON’T KNOW WHEN the coronavirus will stop spreading, when we’ll have a vaccine and how much the economy will slow. I also don’t know at what level the stock market and interest rates will hit bottom—or whether we’ve already seen the worst. And nobody else does, either. But that doesn’t mean we should all just sit on our (frequently washed) hands.
While we don’t know how bad things will get, we’ve seen this movie before.
WHEN YOU SEE an advertisement, you expect some hype. Ads for investment newsletters are, alas, no exception.
Sometimes, you hear about their unique investment process or how the newsletter regularly beats the market. Some offer one-sentence testimonials from happy subscribers. The message: You, too, can enjoy the benefits of their secret methodologies for a low, low price.
Yes, the ads are undoubtedly compelling. But you need to separate the hype from reality. Fortunately, Hulbert Financial Digest does just that—by tracking the performance of investment newsletters.
STOCKS HAVE YET TO close 20% below their Feb. 19 all-time high, so technically the U.S. market hasn’t entered bear market territory. Still, after this morning’s sharp drop, the S&P 500 is 17% below its peak.
If this decline does indeed become a bear market, how can you prepare yourself? A bear market can be an emotionally gut-wrenching time—one that leaves you feeling vulnerable and helpless. But there are steps you can take to limit the damage to your investment portfolio.
WHAT I FIND surprising about the stock market isn’t its recent dramatic pullback, but how I’ve reacted. I simply haven’t paid much attention. It’s just been business as usual. I haven’t even looked at my portfolio or watched CNBC.
Such a calm demeanor is unusual for me. A few years ago, if I experienced this type of market decline, I would have made big changes to my portfolio. Yet this time around, I just shrugged my shoulders.
IT’S COME TO THIS: I’m writing an article discussing the virtues of EE savings bonds. To be sure, I’m not currently planning to buy them myself. But they could make a fine investment for more conservative investors who are happy to sit tight for the next two decades.
Yes, the current yield on EE savings bonds is a mere 0.1%. But if you hold EEs for 20 years, the Treasury Department guarantees that your savings bonds will double in value,
MY THREE FAVORITE words in response to questions about investing and trading: “I don’t know.”
Nothing underscores that sentiment more than bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. I work on a trading floor, where it pays to have an opinion on just about every tradable asset. But I’m the oddball on the floor. I roll my eyes when I hear blanket market predictions and the latest hot stock tip. I’m even on a personal crusade to remove CNBC from the TVs at work.
AFTER YEARS OF handwringing, you finally concede that it’s all but impossible to beat the market over the long haul, so you shift your portfolio into index funds. Next up: the truly tough decisions.
Almost every writer for—and reader of—HumbleDollar is a fan of indexing, and there’s no doubt that index funds are a wonderful financial tool. But how will you use that tool? Let the bickering begin.
The differences of opinion show up among the articles we run on HumbleDollar.
IT’S NO SECRET THAT mutual fund costs are critically important. In fact, when it comes to the performance of funds in the same category, they’re the single most important differentiator. In the words of Morningstar, the investment research firm, “If there’s anything in the whole world of mutual funds that you can take to the bank, it’s that expense ratios help you make a better decision.”
But how do you go about totaling up a mutual fund’s costs?
CNBC ANCHOR BECKY Quick recently summed up today’s retirement investing dilemma in one sentence: “You’re never going to make enough money if you have 40% of your money in bonds.” She, along with many pundits, believe the old standby recommendation to invest 60% in stocks and 40% in bonds—the classic balanced portfolio—is dead. Google “60/40 asset allocation” and the majority of recent articles have titles that include such words as “eulogy,” “endangered,” “dead,” “the end of” and “not good enough.”
Likewise,
“PERFORMANCE COMES and goes, but costs roll on forever,” said Vanguard Group’s founder, the great John Bogle. It’s been just over a year since Jack passed away.
I think he would have approved of Vanguard’s recent announcements that it had reduced fees on 56 funds and eliminated trading commissions to buy and sell stocks and ETFs. The latter followed similar announcements from other major discount brokers. All of this is good news—especially right now.
TESLA FOUNDER ELON Musk is, to me, the ultimate investment Rorschach test. To his supporters, Musk is a genius without equal. As one Wall Street analyst put it, “If Thomas Edison and Henry Ford made a baby, that baby would be called Elon Musk.” But to his detractors, Musk is an erratic individual and the leader of a money-losing company whose bravado has landed him in hot water with the SEC.
Last week, Tesla’s stock encapsulated those contrasting views. On Monday and Tuesday,
YEARS AGO, I SPENT a few days in Bangkok touring the city. A highlight of my short stopover was the temple of Wat Traimit, which houses a five-and-a-half metric ton Golden Buddha, made of approximately $250 million of gold.
Cast more than 700 years ago, the statue symbolized the prosperity and cultural heritage of Sukhothai, the first Thai kingdom. Sometime in the 18th century, the statue was completely plastered over to conceal its value from Burmese invaders.
AT LEAST ONCE A WEEK, I run across the sort of portfolio I like to call a “broker’s special.” While each is different, they typically include some mix of the following:
A handful of mutual funds with names like “New Economy” or “New Discovery” or “New Perspectives.”
Some commodity funds.
10 or 20 individual stocks.
Funds with names heavy on buzzwords such as “infrastructure” and “renewable energy.”
And, in some cases, master limited partnerships,
ON THIS DAY IN 1888, George Cope died at age 65. Two days later, he was buried in Anfield Cemetery in Liverpool, England, where his younger brother Thomas had been laid to rest 40 months earlier.
Together, in 1848, the two brothers had launched a successful tobacco company, which would be acquired more than a century later by Gallaher Group, then a major U.K. multinational tobacco producer. Gallaher itself would subsequently be bought by Japan Tobacco.
IN BERKSHIRE Hathaway’s 2006 annual report, Warren Buffett devoted several paragraphs to scathing criticism of the hedge fund industry. Their fees, Buffett wrote, were so exorbitant and so stacked against investors that they amounted to a “grotesque arrangement.”
Indeed, Buffett has frequently recommended that individual investors opt for low-cost index funds. To reinforce this point, he issued a public challenge in 2007: He would bet anyone $1 million that, over a 10-year period, a simple S&P 500-index fund would beat the performance of a portfolio of hedge funds.