I’M A BELIEVER. SURE, I stray every now and then. But after a late start, I’ve now been a devotee of exchange-traded funds for many years—though some of the ETFs I own would be considered actively managed.
In his iconic A Random Walk Down Wall Street, Burton Malkiel strongly advocates long-term passive investing as the strategy of choice for individual investors. But he also confesses to having been “smitten with the gambling urge since birth.” Acknowledging that index fund investing can be “boring,” he takes pity on folks like me with “speculative temperaments,” who may need to indulge those instincts with some small portion of their portfolio.

WITH YEAR-END IN sight, it’s a good time for some investment housekeeping. What’s worth your attention? Last week, I discussed the importance of asset allocation. According to research, this is the most significant portfolio decision you can make. But while asset allocation is important, it isn’t the only decision. Within each of the major asset classes, there’s another set of considerations.
Bonds. Earlier this year, I conducted a survey on X, as Twitter is now known,

IN THE VALLEY OF FEAR, Sherlock Holmes searches a moat to shed light on a puzzling murder, only to be surprised by what he finds. Among today’s exchange-traded index fund (ETF) cognoscenti, another moat has become the focus of inquiry.
“Holmes, which moat are you investigating now?”
“Too much chronicling of our little capers, Watson, and not enough reading. It’s the VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat ETF.”
“The who?”
“Shame, shame, Watson, you’re so ill-informed about popular culture.

I STUDIED MATH AND statistics at university. When I mentioned my academic focus at parties, eyes would glaze over as fellow students looked for a way to extricate themselves from the conversation.
To lighten the mood, I’d say I was studying statistics to learn how to get rich in the stock market. In truth, I had no idea what I was talking about, but it sounded good and would often break the ice. Still,

THERE’S AN IRONY IN the world of personal finance: The activity that’s the most entertaining—picking stocks—is also, according to the data, one of the most counterproductive. Meanwhile, making asset allocation decisions is more akin to watching paint dry, and yet—according to the data—that’s one of the most important decisions an investor can make.
Asset allocation refers to the split among your investments—how much you hold in stocks, for example, versus bonds or real estate.

WHEN I WAS IN COLLEGE, I thought I had investing all figured out. I’d taken a handful of finance and portfolio management courses, I’d allocated real money for the University of North Florida’s student-managed fund, and I’d researched individual stocks, mutual funds, exchange-traded funds and even options.
But my confidence was crushed by a year of unsuccessful options trading when I was age 20. Nonetheless, through my 20s and into my 30s, I remained optimistic that I could earn handsome long-run returns by overweighting a few investment factors—such as smaller companies and value stocks—and by having plenty of foreign stock exposure.

WHAT DRIVES THE PRICE of individual company stocks, and why do some soar while others sink? It comes down to five factors, I believe.
The first two factors are a company’s observable strengths and weaknesses. Consider Apple. Its strengths are easily quantifiable. In the U.S., it’s captured more than half the smartphone market. When you take into account the company’s premium prices, it collects a disproportionate share of the industry’s revenue. Last year, Apple’s profits hit nearly $100 billion,

I HAVE LONG ADMIRED my grandfather, John H. Watson, for chronicling the contributions to criminology made by his close friend, Sherlock Holmes, Esq. Since retiring from my psychiatry practice, I have similarly had the pleasure, if not the duty, to record the efforts of his grandson Sherwood to expose wrongdoing in the financial industry.
The more informed among you are no doubt familiar with my latest study, The Disappearance of the Load Fund.

STEIN’S LAW STATES that, “If something cannot go on forever, it will stop.” It’s named for Herbert Stein, an economist who was influential in the 1970s and served as chair of the president’s Council of Economic Advisors.
Stein first made this comment when he saw government debt growing to what he felt was an unsustainable level. While half-joking in the way he put it, Stein was making a serious observation: Trends rarely last forever.

I RECENTLY FINISHED reading the second edition of William Bernstein’s The Four Pillars of Investing—twice. This new edition is a significant rewrite of the first edition that was published in 2002. Even if you’ve read the first edition, reading the second edition is worth your time.
Though I’ve read most of the books written by well-known investment luminaries familiar to HumbleDollar readers, there were still pearls of wisdom I gathered from this second edition.

HOW DO YOU COMPETE in an investment contest when you’re a firm believer that investors can’t consistently beat the market averages? That was my dilemma several years ago.
A school not far from where I taught was given money by an alumnus to endow the St. Louis Area Collegiate Investment Contest. All colleges and universities in the area are invited to participate in the competition, which is held regularly. Each is given a hypothetical $1 million and asked to select 20 value stocks.

WHEN I WAS NINE years old, I managed a diversified portfolio—and yet I knew nothing of stocks and bonds. My primary asset classes matched those of my peers: coins, baseball cards and stamps.
Rather than a brokerage firm, we had the Koin Korner, a fairly large store in our nearby shopping mall that sold coins, stamps and a few other collectibles. And instead of following the gyrations of the stock market in The Wall Street Journal,

A KEY CONUNDRUM FOR investors: On the one hand, the data on tactical trading are clear. Frequent portfolio shifts are a bad idea and can damage returns. On the other hand, we shouldn’t be so wedded to the status quo that we’re unwilling to ever make a change.
With this conundrum in mind, it was notable when investor and author Howard Marks declared a “sea change” in the investment landscape and recommended that investors revamp their portfolios.

WHAT’S THE BIGGEST threat to your retirement?

For young adults, we know a key pitfall is failing to invest in stocks because they’re so afraid of the market’s short-term ups and downs, thus unwittingly risking impoverishment later in life.

But for those of us nearing retirement, the market’s ups and downs can start to matter more than stocks’ long-term inflation-beating performance. An ill-timed market crash or a run of bad annual returns could ruin our retirement plans.

DON’T LOOK NOW, but value is beating growth—just not here in the U.S.

From May 31 through Sept. 29, iShares MSCI EAFE Value ETF (symbol: EFV), which invests in developed foreign markets, is up 5.6%, while iShares MSCI EAFE Growth ETF (EFG) is down 6.5%. That brings the year-to-date performance of the two funds to 9.6% for the iShares value fund and 4% for the iShares growth fund. Meanwhile, the style-neutral iShares MSCI EAFE ETF (EFA) is up 6.9% in 2023.