Based on what you've said so far, the only question I would ask is: if you use the cash to make the purchase, would that cash used then be considered part of your retirement portfolio? It sounds like you have two "buckets" so to speak, a tax advantaged retirement portfolio bucket, and a pile of cash bucket whose use is still undetermined. So, by using the cash to buy the international fund it seems that you might be combining the buckets and thus starting to manage both buckets as a single portfolio. That's very doable, but I'd suggest putting some thought into how that will play out. For example, if the international fund rebounds and gains to the point you need to sell some of it, selling it outside of the retirement account might create tax problems.
It depends on what you call cash. If you consider money market funds and US T-bills cash, then you can beat inflation by about ~ 1% point right now (assuming you are in a relatively low tax bracket).
Fortunately, that's all done behind the scenes in TurboTax. I download the 1099's from Vanguard and TurboTax walks me through some questions where at some point I input the $ amount of US sourced income for each investment based on the percentages reported by Vanguard in the 1099.
True and on top of that many local governments do alot to restrict supply, so this further exacerbates the situation. Our various government agencies often work at odds with policies that restrict supply while simultaneously subsidizing demand in many areas: housing, education, medicine. For housing another problem is that the majority of people's net worth is tied to their home equity, so governments have put themselves between a rock and a hard place. Policies that increase supply and lower home prices will make homeowners angry, while people looking for their 1st home are unhappy because house prices are too high. In order to correct this, some folks are going to have to be made unhappy.
Others have pointed out your error on the definition of a bear market. However, we should also address your alarm on the other 3 items. 1) Prices are not coming down: thats deflation - it might sound like a good thing, but that is very bad - it means demand is falling which is typically associated with bad economic times. 2) Inflation is rising. Take a look at this link: Inflation, consumer prices for the United States (FPCPITOTLZGUSA) | FRED | St. Louis Fed Yes we had a bad run of inflation a few years ago, but inflation as of Feb 2026 was 2.4% annualized. That is within normal range if we look back 40 years. It probably seems high because we had unusually low inflation from 2009 to 2020.
Yes, we are seeing energy spikes due to the activity in the Middle East, and if this continues it will trickle through the economy. However, things have been much worse historically.
True, private equity and private credit are underperforming, and the really wealthy institutions and individuals who own these assets can’t find other wealthy buyers for them. So they are trying to get access to less wealthy buyers through 401k plans. Most responsible financial advisors and journalists are warning regular investors to avoid these investments.
This seems to equate sequence of return risk with concentration risk. While I can see extreme concentration risk leading to sequence of return risk they are not entirely the same, and it's not clear to me that the current concentration in the S&P500 reaches the level of significantly increasing sequence of return risk. To me the best way to mitigate sequence of return risk is proper asset allocation between types of assets (equities, bonds, cash) coupled with a withdrawal plan that is suitable for your timeframe. Managing the sector allocations of my stock portfolio seems secondary to that.
Comments
Based on what you've said so far, the only question I would ask is: if you use the cash to make the purchase, would that cash used then be considered part of your retirement portfolio? It sounds like you have two "buckets" so to speak, a tax advantaged retirement portfolio bucket, and a pile of cash bucket whose use is still undetermined. So, by using the cash to buy the international fund it seems that you might be combining the buckets and thus starting to manage both buckets as a single portfolio. That's very doable, but I'd suggest putting some thought into how that will play out. For example, if the international fund rebounds and gains to the point you need to sell some of it, selling it outside of the retirement account might create tax problems.
Post: Prepping to Pull the Trigger
Link to comment from March 29, 2026
It depends on what you call cash. If you consider money market funds and US T-bills cash, then you can beat inflation by about ~ 1% point right now (assuming you are in a relatively low tax bracket).
Post: Prepping to Pull the Trigger
Link to comment from March 29, 2026
Fortunately, that's all done behind the scenes in TurboTax. I download the 1099's from Vanguard and TurboTax walks me through some questions where at some point I input the $ amount of US sourced income for each investment based on the percentages reported by Vanguard in the 1099.
Post: Treasury Tax Reporting
Link to comment from March 29, 2026
True and on top of that many local governments do alot to restrict supply, so this further exacerbates the situation. Our various government agencies often work at odds with policies that restrict supply while simultaneously subsidizing demand in many areas: housing, education, medicine. For housing another problem is that the majority of people's net worth is tied to their home equity, so governments have put themselves between a rock and a hard place. Policies that increase supply and lower home prices will make homeowners angry, while people looking for their 1st home are unhappy because house prices are too high. In order to correct this, some folks are going to have to be made unhappy.
Post: Any concern?
Link to comment from March 28, 2026
3) Now for mortgage rates. Again, look at this data: 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US) | FRED | St. Louis Fed As with inflation current mortgage rates are well withing historical norms going back 50 years. They just seem unusual due to a recent 15 year run of historically low rates, which is a hangover from the 2008 financial crisis.
Post: Any concern?
Link to comment from March 28, 2026
Others have pointed out your error on the definition of a bear market. However, we should also address your alarm on the other 3 items. 1) Prices are not coming down: thats deflation - it might sound like a good thing, but that is very bad - it means demand is falling which is typically associated with bad economic times. 2) Inflation is rising. Take a look at this link: Inflation, consumer prices for the United States (FPCPITOTLZGUSA) | FRED | St. Louis Fed Yes we had a bad run of inflation a few years ago, but inflation as of Feb 2026 was 2.4% annualized. That is within normal range if we look back 40 years. It probably seems high because we had unusually low inflation from 2009 to 2020. Yes, we are seeing energy spikes due to the activity in the Middle East, and if this continues it will trickle through the economy. However, things have been much worse historically.
Post: Any concern?
Link to comment from March 28, 2026
True, private equity and private credit are underperforming, and the really wealthy institutions and individuals who own these assets can’t find other wealthy buyers for them. So they are trying to get access to less wealthy buyers through 401k plans. Most responsible financial advisors and journalists are warning regular investors to avoid these investments.
Post: Private Credit Stress?
Link to comment from March 28, 2026
Exactly, companies go the private credit route because public credit considers them too risky.
Post: Private Credit Stress?
Link to comment from March 28, 2026
For 2025 Vanguard provided the US government source interest for each of my holdings as a footnote in my 1099 DIV. Made it a little easier this year.
Post: Treasury Tax Reporting
Link to comment from March 28, 2026
This seems to equate sequence of return risk with concentration risk. While I can see extreme concentration risk leading to sequence of return risk they are not entirely the same, and it's not clear to me that the current concentration in the S&P500 reaches the level of significantly increasing sequence of return risk. To me the best way to mitigate sequence of return risk is proper asset allocation between types of assets (equities, bonds, cash) coupled with a withdrawal plan that is suitable for your timeframe. Managing the sector allocations of my stock portfolio seems secondary to that.
Post: Sector Fund by Stealth
Link to comment from March 13, 2026