The stock market is not nearing bear territory by generalized definition. It is nearing, or at Correction, which is down 10%. The generalized recognized threshold for a Bear market is down 20%. Corrections are far more common than Bears. I'm not concerned in a correction, and we are prepared for a 10-year Bear.
I think it is a positive change. I understand why they were there originally but they came to be increasingly abused from the original intent causing unnecessary distraction and drift from the positive direction of the community.
The cited article from Kiplinger's references recent work done by David Blanchett and Michael Finke on "License to Spend", something they have published on previously (and I have mentioned here in previous comments). I'm a fan of these guys but just vary a bit from their proposal of annuities as the single discretionary solution to other sources of guaranteed income like pensions and Social Security. We use a rolling 10-year TIPs ladder which, unlike annuities, accounts for inflation. Full disclosure: We also have QLACs, deferred annuities, in our retirement accounts, for income later on and a degree of longevity insurance.
Reduce the cash position by 10% and transfer to international funds. 2. Gradually reduce the single stock position and add to stock funds splitting between international and domestic,
The question for me is not just how steep the drop but, more importantly, how long it lasts. In my mind there is a difference between volatility and a prolonged downturn. I was past mid-career in 2008 when my retirement accounts took a 50% + hit and it took until 2013 for a full recover even with dollar cost averaged bi-weekly contributions. In hindsight, I benefitted from that very scary time because I still was working and contributing. But lots of folks had to unretire. We plan for a 10-year downturn so basically have an 11-year floor of fixed income. That addresses the concern for us.
Got one just before retirement while I still had regular income just as a back -up. In 8 years, I have used it once to help buy a car and paid it off within 2-3 months with irregular part-time consulting income.
The combination of delayed SS, 3 small pensions, 13 years of deferred comp conservatively invested, 3 QLACs due for turn on 77-83 and a rolling TIPs ladder supported by a retirement specialist financial planner provide my wife and I the proverbial "license to spend". We have been able to take some wonderful trips and are planning more without hesitation or regret. Last year we pulled the trigger and had a sunroom added to our house which has been a great addition and our rescue dog considers it her personal dog house. It helped considerably that during the last 8 years after I retired at 61, I have been consulting part-time.
We have a retirement financial planner who is admittedly conservative and my guess he would look at the rental property income as a risk to be considered and the asset allocation. He certainly does not take a blanket approach to Roth conversions (and I am aware of several other advisors who also do not..). We discuss them on a case-by-case basis and look at the considerations objectively-I was the one this year who argued for a higher Roth conversion than he suggested. But you are right Roth conversions are overblown and are unlikely to make or break a retirement plan. Good luck.
I dont pay a whole of attention to the 4% guideline (I hate the word rule..) but Bill Bengen the author of it, recently revised it to 4.7% over 30 years which probably is aligned with the Morningstar study. Your concerns are one of the several reasons we engage the services of a retirement financial planner. The value cannot be quantified beyond the obvious benefits of delegation, peace of mind, getting aligned, and continuity in cognitive decline, but Id venture to guess we have both saved and made more money after fees than if we did not have a planner. Not only we have the license to spend, which is wonderful and our plan definitely addresses inflation risk and increased costs in its projection out to 95. Regardless, you seem pretty conservative and my guess is you will be fine with that allocation and timeline and that your portfolio performance likely supports that.
Comments
The stock market is not nearing bear territory by generalized definition. It is nearing, or at Correction, which is down 10%. The generalized recognized threshold for a Bear market is down 20%. Corrections are far more common than Bears. I'm not concerned in a correction, and we are prepared for a 10-year Bear.
Post: Any concern?
Link to comment from March 28, 2026
I think it is a positive change. I understand why they were there originally but they came to be increasingly abused from the original intent causing unnecessary distraction and drift from the positive direction of the community.
Post: Let the Arrows Speak for Themselves
Link to comment from March 28, 2026
The cited article from Kiplinger's references recent work done by David Blanchett and Michael Finke on "License to Spend", something they have published on previously (and I have mentioned here in previous comments). I'm a fan of these guys but just vary a bit from their proposal of annuities as the single discretionary solution to other sources of guaranteed income like pensions and Social Security. We use a rolling 10-year TIPs ladder which, unlike annuities, accounts for inflation. Full disclosure: We also have QLACs, deferred annuities, in our retirement accounts, for income later on and a degree of longevity insurance.
Post: Forget the 4% rule.
Link to comment from March 7, 2026
Post: Critique my investment strategy or lack thereof
Link to comment from February 28, 2026
The question for me is not just how steep the drop but, more importantly, how long it lasts. In my mind there is a difference between volatility and a prolonged downturn. I was past mid-career in 2008 when my retirement accounts took a 50% + hit and it took until 2013 for a full recover even with dollar cost averaged bi-weekly contributions. In hindsight, I benefitted from that very scary time because I still was working and contributing. But lots of folks had to unretire. We plan for a 10-year downturn so basically have an 11-year floor of fixed income. That addresses the concern for us.
Post: How Far Back Would a 40% Drop Take Us?
Link to comment from February 21, 2026
Actually. this is widely misunderstood... They have 10% probability of adjustment. Not failure.
Post: Maximizing Lifetime Retirement Spending
Link to comment from February 7, 2026
Got one just before retirement while I still had regular income just as a back -up. In 8 years, I have used it once to help buy a car and paid it off within 2-3 months with irregular part-time consulting income.
Post: Advice I give to anyone who’ll listen!
Link to comment from January 31, 2026
The combination of delayed SS, 3 small pensions, 13 years of deferred comp conservatively invested, 3 QLACs due for turn on 77-83 and a rolling TIPs ladder supported by a retirement specialist financial planner provide my wife and I the proverbial "license to spend". We have been able to take some wonderful trips and are planning more without hesitation or regret. Last year we pulled the trigger and had a sunroom added to our house which has been a great addition and our rescue dog considers it her personal dog house. It helped considerably that during the last 8 years after I retired at 61, I have been consulting part-time.
Post: Spending Without Guilt: An Overlooked Retirement Skill
Link to comment from January 24, 2026
We have a retirement financial planner who is admittedly conservative and my guess he would look at the rental property income as a risk to be considered and the asset allocation. He certainly does not take a blanket approach to Roth conversions (and I am aware of several other advisors who also do not..). We discuss them on a case-by-case basis and look at the considerations objectively-I was the one this year who argued for a higher Roth conversion than he suggested. But you are right Roth conversions are overblown and are unlikely to make or break a retirement plan. Good luck.
Post: Tell me my error in thinking
Link to comment from January 10, 2026
I dont pay a whole of attention to the 4% guideline (I hate the word rule..) but Bill Bengen the author of it, recently revised it to 4.7% over 30 years which probably is aligned with the Morningstar study. Your concerns are one of the several reasons we engage the services of a retirement financial planner. The value cannot be quantified beyond the obvious benefits of delegation, peace of mind, getting aligned, and continuity in cognitive decline, but Id venture to guess we have both saved and made more money after fees than if we did not have a planner. Not only we have the license to spend, which is wonderful and our plan definitely addresses inflation risk and increased costs in its projection out to 95. Regardless, you seem pretty conservative and my guess is you will be fine with that allocation and timeline and that your portfolio performance likely supports that.
Post: Customizing the Safe Withdrawal Rate
Link to comment from January 10, 2026