Thank you for sharing this sad news. I too have been a fan of Jonathan’s writing since his WSJ days and like countless others on this site and elsewhere have greatly benefited from his wisdom andability to make sometimes complex topics easy to understand. He has indeed made a difference and will be missed. All my best to you and your family during this difficult time.
At the risk of being controversial and potentially being exiled from this site, I feel the need to point out that there are two sides to every story. So called tax cuts for the rich are also a major boon to many businesses (and their employees) who benefit from increased spending by the so called rich. Simple pleasures like eating dinner out, buying art, going to a show or ballgame or pretty much any purchase, has a trickle down effect on the people making and serving those meals, creating art pieces, building furniture, manufacturing cars, etc. The last time I looked, consumers still underpin the majority of the economy and not all attempts to fuel the consumer-driven economy should be immediately labeled tax cuts for the rich. For example in this case, people holding on to their homes until they die and the cost basis resets due to the crushing effect of capital gains taxes has contributed to a major shortage of affordable housing, especially for the younger generation. At least some believe the lack of affordable housing is also contributing to the lower birth rates in this country. In my opinion, helping long time homeowners sell their homes without incurring massive capital gains taxes would be a good (and necessary) way to increase home turnover and allow our children to live the American dream. Just another perspective.
If it helps, I recently did some research on short duration ETFs with an eye towards 2022 performance and settled on JPST. It was launched in 2018 and has never lost money, even in 2022 (+1.14%). It also has a solid yield that matches the best MM funds I could find.
Seems to me that these models are an effective way of explaining what has already happened, and not as useful for predicting what will happen. Conditions (economic, social, political, etc.) are variable making it unlikely that the model will accurately predict the same outcomes. As Adam suggests, they are interesting to ponder (for some) but not to be completely relied on.
Good morning and happy Saturday. I have another consideration to add to your list: Supply & Demand. By many measures it appears that more dollars are chasing fewer publicly traded equities. In some cases, those dollars are on “autopilot” (i.e. 401k contributions or automatic investment plans) which create recurring demand regardless of valuations and frequently into the same company shares. It seems to me that an ever increasing number of dollars purchasing a narrow collection of stocks is another factor driving prices higher and reducing the relevance of many historical metrics such as P/E ratios.
Thank you Matt for your post. It motivated me to watch a documentary on Calvin Coolidge so that I could better understand the reference. Indeed lowering taxes and reducing the deficit was central to Coolidge’s economic policies which seemingly fueled the Roaring 20’s. He also rather surprisingly declined to seek reelection in 1928 right before the Great Depression set in. Interesting history no doubt!
Comments
Just curious, have you experienced any change in your spending habits post-retirement? This is one area of concern for me.
Post: What words of wisdom would you have for your younger self?
Link to comment from October 2, 2025
Thank you for sharing this sad news. I too have been a fan of Jonathan’s writing since his WSJ days and like countless others on this site and elsewhere have greatly benefited from his wisdom and ability to make sometimes complex topics easy to understand. He has indeed made a difference and will be missed. All my best to you and your family during this difficult time.
Post: Jonathan and website update
Link to comment from September 21, 2025
And watch what happens to those jobs when people stop consuming…
Post: Some people are never satisfied
Link to comment from July 12, 2025
Ok, I do not want to debate whether trickle down economics works or not, but it is pretty easy to see who benefits when the “rich” spend their money.
Post: Some people are never satisfied
Link to comment from July 11, 2025
At the risk of being controversial and potentially being exiled from this site, I feel the need to point out that there are two sides to every story. So called tax cuts for the rich are also a major boon to many businesses (and their employees) who benefit from increased spending by the so called rich. Simple pleasures like eating dinner out, buying art, going to a show or ballgame or pretty much any purchase, has a trickle down effect on the people making and serving those meals, creating art pieces, building furniture, manufacturing cars, etc. The last time I looked, consumers still underpin the majority of the economy and not all attempts to fuel the consumer-driven economy should be immediately labeled tax cuts for the rich. For example in this case, people holding on to their homes until they die and the cost basis resets due to the crushing effect of capital gains taxes has contributed to a major shortage of affordable housing, especially for the younger generation. At least some believe the lack of affordable housing is also contributing to the lower birth rates in this country. In my opinion, helping long time homeowners sell their homes without incurring massive capital gains taxes would be a good (and necessary) way to increase home turnover and allow our children to live the American dream. Just another perspective.
Post: Some people are never satisfied
Link to comment from July 11, 2025
Ok thanks. I appreciate your response and will have a closer look.
Post: Bond Conundrum
Link to comment from July 8, 2025
If it helps, I recently did some research on short duration ETFs with an eye towards 2022 performance and settled on JPST. It was launched in 2018 and has never lost money, even in 2022 (+1.14%). It also has a solid yield that matches the best MM funds I could find.
Post: Bond Conundrum
Link to comment from July 7, 2025
Seems to me that these models are an effective way of explaining what has already happened, and not as useful for predicting what will happen. Conditions (economic, social, political, etc.) are variable making it unlikely that the model will accurately predict the same outcomes. As Adam suggests, they are interesting to ponder (for some) but not to be completely relied on.
Post: Good in Theory
Link to comment from June 14, 2025
Good morning and happy Saturday. I have another consideration to add to your list: Supply & Demand. By many measures it appears that more dollars are chasing fewer publicly traded equities. In some cases, those dollars are on “autopilot” (i.e. 401k contributions or automatic investment plans) which create recurring demand regardless of valuations and frequently into the same company shares. It seems to me that an ever increasing number of dollars purchasing a narrow collection of stocks is another factor driving prices higher and reducing the relevance of many historical metrics such as P/E ratios.
Post: You Never Know
Link to comment from June 7, 2025
Thank you Matt for your post. It motivated me to watch a documentary on Calvin Coolidge so that I could better understand the reference. Indeed lowering taxes and reducing the deficit was central to Coolidge’s economic policies which seemingly fueled the Roaring 20’s. He also rather surprisingly declined to seek reelection in 1928 right before the Great Depression set in. Interesting history no doubt!
Post: Feeling Moody
Link to comment from May 25, 2025