I also have heard ot called “sequence of risk” People who claim keeping 3 years ( Morningstar ) in cash to a avoid selling at market bottoms are missing the fact that in y lifetime it took 13 years (2000 to 2013) for the SP500 to reach it’s previous peak and stay there Some pundits take this into account and advise starting retirement with lower levels of stock exposure, unless your portfolio is big enough for the 40% FI to fund 13 years of expenses.
I don’t think current regs ever prevent you from buying a medigap policy but after i tia
ly signing up for MA, if you opt out, the medigap providers can use your existing health issues to charge you much higher premiums
This is the “Bone marrow transplant at Bugtussle general hospital” problem. While there may be a few cities in America where all of the hospital provide excellent care, in most palces there are good and lousy hospitals and specialty networks that are cheaper. What is to stop your MA plan from doind Bone Marrow transplants at Bugtussle general, instead of the University Hospital? nothing. While Boston, San Francisco, maybe Seattle have almost uniformly excellent facilities, where would you rathe have complicated neuro surgery? Massachusetts General, or Lady of Fatima?
I am a retired internist and must tell you I think you are missing a lot of the problem. Most of it is legacy decisions with now political obstacles to undo, because rich institutions and physician groups will loose big. Clearly fraud exists. You would think it would be easy to identify the fraud in one oncologist’s practice, owned by the only hospital in town in small town in WY when he was in the top 5 billers nationwide year after year and billing for 75 patients a day ( see Propublica). I have never understood why MC cannot look at the money out the door and identify where there are problems. It may be antiquated computers etc. Limiting daily payouts to volume standards (75 patients a day is clearly fraud) would help but this would probably require a new law. A number of problems are holdovers that require new regs. Hospital based doctors for years have been paid more for outpatient procedures because MC had data the costs in hospitals were higher This worked well until hospitals realized they could offer outside doctors more money and buy their practices. The way to deal with “over treatment” is to require every MC patient to have a PCP and pay that PCP a decent reimbursement and incentivize them to talk to patients. When MC pays more to remove a wart than talk about cancer care, it is obvious what the problem is. However, this will require eliminating the procedural specialists strangle hold on the rate setting boards MC is required to use to set rates. It will be fought tooth and nail by every speciality board in the country with their large lobbying budgets.
This is the same argument about gold people have been making for decades, but they all miss the point. Gold is one of the easiest ways individuals can protect their portfolios against dollar debasement. Sanctions and mostly Trumps chaotic, unreliable foreign policies and the domestic chaos he has unleashed have made the US Treasury Bond a much more unreliable investment. Friends of mine in the foreign service say no other country believes the US anymore, much less assumes we will not invade or sanction them. It will take decades to restore this trust. International investors see the budget deficit, just this week massively enlarged by Trump’s demand the defense budget be doubled, and know many, many more Treasuries will be printed. They see the chaos in American streets, the lies pouring out of Trump, Noem and Vance and realize they can no longer count on America’s word to pay them back, or believe the rule of law still prevails in America. You can take your gold and sell it in any country worldwide, knowingwhat you will get. Not true of T Bonds. To some extent the same arguments apply to other commodities. Everyone should allocate a % to materials that are portable around the world.
But wouldn’t the crooks check tgeir accounts to make sure money was there brfore they let you go? i read this week in NYT ( I think) of guy who googled “windows help” got hooked up with scammers by mustake and let them convince him to send them $85000 from Citi. Citi said tough noogies you sent it voluntairly
There are several issues here that my experience might clarify. I went to public U in the 1970s but with great grades got into Ivy League medical school, which made my career. My education was better and the credentials still prompt comments, 50 years later. If I had stayed in Texas for medical school would it have mattered? I don't know but I probably would still be there. My two kids different as night and day have a different example. . My son loved academics, English and poetry. His sixth grade public school teacher begged us to send him to a very expensive private high school, predicting he would be bored to tears in a public high school. She was right. Back then the high school started at $22,000 ( but was more expensive than Yale) but he thrived, was valedictorian and was accepted to 10/12 Ivy League schools he applied to. He was offered a 50% tuition scholarship to Rice but we figured the costs of flights back and forth from the NE and our expenses to visit would have eaten up most of the difference with a local Ivy. He did very well in the Ivy League nearby , graduating cum laude, but, of course, majored in English and creative writing.He would have made a terrible lawyer or businessman. His only career path was teaching, but was not tough enough to teach in public schools, and needed experience to be hired in private schools. The only reason he was interviewed for his first job at a private school was his Ivy League diploma, and even then he only got one job offer at the very last minute. In the job he excelled and with that experience he has his choice now of better more interesting private high school jobs. His friends from childhood who went to state schools and majored in English, or Sports marketing or whatever, never got interviewed and are selling beer or real estate. My daughter did fine but had no interest in academics and is much more of a people person. She did great in a vocationally oriented public school (Mostly agriculture and horses) and got spectacular hands on training in the FFA in public speaking, economics etc. She got into Cornell and did fine, but struggled to find a decent job, which she finally has after three years, now working in development. My son would have been miserable in a less competitive environment, but if he wanted a career in STEM or business, I agree the Ivies would have made less of a difference. So bottom line 1) It depends on the kid and what they want to do. I doubt in RQ's case Babson is much better than the University of Massachusetts for "business". They have spun themselves into this "entrepreneurship school but what employers look for are good grades, teamwork and enthusiasm. With majors in a strong job market the school is less critical, but things change quickly. Just ask all the Computer Science majors out there now. 2) Your kid has to be happy where they are. My son hated the thought of going to the U of Texas although it has a great English department, and would have been someway cheaper. 3) If your kid gets seriously sick, it is very very worthwhile having them a day's drive away or closer. ( the student health centers at most schools are awful) 4) Talk to people who might be hiring your kid in four years with a degree in Y from X. Look at where the graduates of the schools concerned go after graduation 5) the school should have enough variety in departments and faculty so if junior HATES business he can find a good poetry or at least English department 6) I have always thought you learn more from your fellow students than he professors anyway, so I would pick the school with the smartest, happiest students. I also think it is really important to pick a school where you will meet people different than you and from different backgrounds, if you will have to work for a living. 7) Where ever junior goes, he/she should get a broad based education, including economics, science and heavy dose of writing etc. My son's best friend just finished a debt free PhD in Latin at the world's best University, but can't find a job. What will he fall back on?
I think the popular scenarios that recommend say "3 years of living expenses in cash" to avoid selling equities during a serious downturn are unrealistic. Anyone who is near to retirement has experience that contradicts that. The double bottom SP500 crash from 3/2000 to 2011 lasted over ten years ( with reinvested dividends longer without). the 1929 crash took decades to fully recover. You need enough cash to not be forced to sell into a down market. There are tops where the market may makes it back to it's previous peak but then crashes again.
This danger is particularly acute early in retirement. A HELO or a second mortgage might be a worse than the alternative alternative but best thing is to look carefully at essential expenses and permanent source of income and keep enough in cash so you can sleep at night.
when I was in practice I had far too many payients forced to go to inferior specialists or hospitals because of Medicare Advantage, and this was in central Ct where tgere was generally good care. If you need a bone marrow transplant dont you want Yale vs a community hospital? Massachusetts General Hospital just dropped all MA plans!
I am unsure if I will make it but for those of you who do and have never been to Philly, a must see ( especially nowadays) is the National Museum of the Constitution downtown on Arch st near the Liberty Bell and Independence Hall unless the shut down is over Independence Hall will probably be closed, but the Museum of the Constitution is private and open Weds to Sunday. It is a wonderful inspiring and optimistic tribute to the one thing that ( used to?) unite Americans.
Comments
I also have heard ot called “sequence of risk” People who claim keeping 3 years ( Morningstar ) in cash to a avoid selling at market bottoms are missing the fact that in y lifetime it took 13 years (2000 to 2013) for the SP500 to reach it’s previous peak and stay there Some pundits take this into account and advise starting retirement with lower levels of stock exposure, unless your portfolio is big enough for the 40% FI to fund 13 years of expenses.
Post: Considering a Lost Decade When Retirement Planning
Link to comment from February 1, 2026
I don’t think current regs ever prevent you from buying a medigap policy but after i tia ly signing up for MA, if you opt out, the medigap providers can use your existing health issues to charge you much higher premiums
Post: Medicare Advantage- heads up‼️
Link to comment from February 1, 2026
This is the “Bone marrow transplant at Bugtussle general hospital” problem. While there may be a few cities in America where all of the hospital provide excellent care, in most palces there are good and lousy hospitals and specialty networks that are cheaper. What is to stop your MA plan from doind Bone Marrow transplants at Bugtussle general, instead of the University Hospital? nothing. While Boston, San Francisco, maybe Seattle have almost uniformly excellent facilities, where would you rathe have complicated neuro surgery? Massachusetts General, or Lady of Fatima?
Post: Medicare Advantage- heads up‼️
Link to comment from February 1, 2026
I am a retired internist and must tell you I think you are missing a lot of the problem. Most of it is legacy decisions with now political obstacles to undo, because rich institutions and physician groups will loose big. Clearly fraud exists. You would think it would be easy to identify the fraud in one oncologist’s practice, owned by the only hospital in town in small town in WY when he was in the top 5 billers nationwide year after year and billing for 75 patients a day ( see Propublica). I have never understood why MC cannot look at the money out the door and identify where there are problems. It may be antiquated computers etc. Limiting daily payouts to volume standards (75 patients a day is clearly fraud) would help but this would probably require a new law. A number of problems are holdovers that require new regs. Hospital based doctors for years have been paid more for outpatient procedures because MC had data the costs in hospitals were higher This worked well until hospitals realized they could offer outside doctors more money and buy their practices. The way to deal with “over treatment” is to require every MC patient to have a PCP and pay that PCP a decent reimbursement and incentivize them to talk to patients. When MC pays more to remove a wart than talk about cancer care, it is obvious what the problem is. However, this will require eliminating the procedural specialists strangle hold on the rate setting boards MC is required to use to set rates. It will be fought tooth and nail by every speciality board in the country with their large lobbying budgets.
Post: Medicare Advantage- heads up‼️
Link to comment from February 1, 2026
This is the same argument about gold people have been making for decades, but they all miss the point. Gold is one of the easiest ways individuals can protect their portfolios against dollar debasement. Sanctions and mostly Trumps chaotic, unreliable foreign policies and the domestic chaos he has unleashed have made the US Treasury Bond a much more unreliable investment. Friends of mine in the foreign service say no other country believes the US anymore, much less assumes we will not invade or sanction them. It will take decades to restore this trust. International investors see the budget deficit, just this week massively enlarged by Trump’s demand the defense budget be doubled, and know many, many more Treasuries will be printed. They see the chaos in American streets, the lies pouring out of Trump, Noem and Vance and realize they can no longer count on America’s word to pay them back, or believe the rule of law still prevails in America. You can take your gold and sell it in any country worldwide, knowingwhat you will get. Not true of T Bonds. To some extent the same arguments apply to other commodities. Everyone should allocate a % to materials that are portable around the world.
Post: Gold Isn’t Special
Link to comment from January 11, 2026
But wouldn’t the crooks check tgeir accounts to make sure money was there brfore they let you go? i read this week in NYT ( I think) of guy who googled “windows help” got hooked up with scammers by mustake and let them convince him to send them $85000 from Citi. Citi said tough noogies you sent it voluntairly
Post: Can we be completely safe?
Link to comment from December 20, 2025
There are several issues here that my experience might clarify. I went to public U in the 1970s but with great grades got into Ivy League medical school, which made my career. My education was better and the credentials still prompt comments, 50 years later. If I had stayed in Texas for medical school would it have mattered? I don't know but I probably would still be there. My two kids different as night and day have a different example. . My son loved academics, English and poetry. His sixth grade public school teacher begged us to send him to a very expensive private high school, predicting he would be bored to tears in a public high school. She was right. Back then the high school started at $22,000 ( but was more expensive than Yale) but he thrived, was valedictorian and was accepted to 10/12 Ivy League schools he applied to. He was offered a 50% tuition scholarship to Rice but we figured the costs of flights back and forth from the NE and our expenses to visit would have eaten up most of the difference with a local Ivy. He did very well in the Ivy League nearby , graduating cum laude, but, of course, majored in English and creative writing.He would have made a terrible lawyer or businessman. His only career path was teaching, but was not tough enough to teach in public schools, and needed experience to be hired in private schools. The only reason he was interviewed for his first job at a private school was his Ivy League diploma, and even then he only got one job offer at the very last minute. In the job he excelled and with that experience he has his choice now of better more interesting private high school jobs. His friends from childhood who went to state schools and majored in English, or Sports marketing or whatever, never got interviewed and are selling beer or real estate. My daughter did fine but had no interest in academics and is much more of a people person. She did great in a vocationally oriented public school (Mostly agriculture and horses) and got spectacular hands on training in the FFA in public speaking, economics etc. She got into Cornell and did fine, but struggled to find a decent job, which she finally has after three years, now working in development. My son would have been miserable in a less competitive environment, but if he wanted a career in STEM or business, I agree the Ivies would have made less of a difference. So bottom line 1) It depends on the kid and what they want to do. I doubt in RQ's case Babson is much better than the University of Massachusetts for "business". They have spun themselves into this "entrepreneurship school but what employers look for are good grades, teamwork and enthusiasm. With majors in a strong job market the school is less critical, but things change quickly. Just ask all the Computer Science majors out there now. 2) Your kid has to be happy where they are. My son hated the thought of going to the U of Texas although it has a great English department, and would have been someway cheaper. 3) If your kid gets seriously sick, it is very very worthwhile having them a day's drive away or closer. ( the student health centers at most schools are awful) 4) Talk to people who might be hiring your kid in four years with a degree in Y from X. Look at where the graduates of the schools concerned go after graduation 5) the school should have enough variety in departments and faculty so if junior HATES business he can find a good poetry or at least English department 6) I have always thought you learn more from your fellow students than he professors anyway, so I would pick the school with the smartest, happiest students. I also think it is really important to pick a school where you will meet people different than you and from different backgrounds, if you will have to work for a living. 7) Where ever junior goes, he/she should get a broad based education, including economics, science and heavy dose of writing etc. My son's best friend just finished a debt free PhD in Latin at the world's best University, but can't find a job. What will he fall back on?
Post: $92,000 a year is quite an investment. The ROI is real, but maybe not.
Link to comment from December 15, 2025
I think the popular scenarios that recommend say "3 years of living expenses in cash" to avoid selling equities during a serious downturn are unrealistic. Anyone who is near to retirement has experience that contradicts that. The double bottom SP500 crash from 3/2000 to 2011 lasted over ten years ( with reinvested dividends longer without). the 1929 crash took decades to fully recover. You need enough cash to not be forced to sell into a down market. There are tops where the market may makes it back to it's previous peak but then crashes again. This danger is particularly acute early in retirement. A HELO or a second mortgage might be a worse than the alternative alternative but best thing is to look carefully at essential expenses and permanent source of income and keep enough in cash so you can sleep at night.
Post: Would You Raid the Piggy Bank or Mortgage the House?
Link to comment from December 15, 2025
when I was in practice I had far too many payients forced to go to inferior specialists or hospitals because of Medicare Advantage, and this was in central Ct where tgere was generally good care. If you need a bone marrow transplant dont you want Yale vs a community hospital? Massachusetts General Hospital just dropped all MA plans!
Post: Don’t make the wrong Medicare decision
Link to comment from October 26, 2025
I am unsure if I will make it but for those of you who do and have never been to Philly, a must see ( especially nowadays) is the National Museum of the Constitution downtown on Arch st near the Liberty Bell and Independence Hall unless the shut down is over Independence Hall will probably be closed, but the Museum of the Constitution is private and open Weds to Sunday. It is a wonderful inspiring and optimistic tribute to the one thing that ( used to?) unite Americans.
Post: Information on Jonathan’s Memorial Service
Link to comment from October 5, 2025