In general I agree that the political party in DC makes little long term difference in stock returns, although I think Dems have a little edge. However the political party in control now is so divorced from the past principles and experience that I think all predictions are off. I don’t see this as “political” other than all of the dramatic changes in DC come from the GOP. It is more “ideological” where one party now believes the federal government is a useless waste of money, and taxes on the top 0.1% must be cut. Rather than reading the headlines, you need to dig into the numbers and understand what the cuts in federal payroll, budgets, and attacks on hard working people (citizens or not) will do to the economy. I can cite many examples. The attack on working immigrants will cost the USA $100 B a year in the tax revenue they pay (without getting anything for it) and billions more in lost productivity. They work for lower pay and at jobs Americans will not do. For example, construction on Martha’s Vineyard has almost stopped, because of one ICE raid. Many more are planned I am sure. The Budget bill increases the deficit, and cuts taxes; the Bond market knows this. Next year’s proposed budget cuts the NIH, NSF and cancer research by 40 to 50%, but increases ICE budget by 200%. How is this an investment in our future economic progress? Where will the money that has funded our exceptionalism in medical and scientific research come from? Many brilliant international students and faculty are leaving, worried that even if their grants are funded they will be deported. People who believe this money is spent on worthless, lazy “deep state” leeches have never worked in a federal office or research lab, or know anyone who has. Read Michael Lewis’s “Who is the Government” if you really believe government employees do nothing. The National Park Service generates well over $55 B in total economic benefits ( for $3 B budget) in nearby communities, but the proposed budget for next year may close 2/3s of our parks and monuments. The effects on the economy of tariffs are well known from experience during the Depression. Unless things change quickly, tax revenues will drop, deficit spending and unemployment will rise, along with inflation, and America is no longer going to be seen as the world leader of scientific progress and reliability. At current P/Es the SP 500 is priced for perfection, and supported by the same seven or eight stocks. There are much better values elsewhere in the world, and TIPS look very attractive here.
1) I am more risk advers than I thought 2) In early retirement saving other than gifts to kids 3) yes as long as it is not minus 30%, but I am diversifying to international stocks 4) My patients all said I was a huge sucess, but were very very upset when I retired 5) It would be nice to have a big boat 6) other than investing, I love the new time retired I have to explore many intellectual pursuits and volunteering 7) Wife 8) this is most interesting one. I cannot bring myself to part with any of my 5000+ books , or sentimental documents from long gone family members. Suits ties, clothes that dont fit, sure (i only wear t shirts now anyway) but everytime I think I should take a book to the book sale I need it the next week. So far my kids are not interested in my geneology documents, but if I toss them they might be.
Funny this should pop up just as my wife and I ( early 70s) are hiring an advisor for 0.9% . They dont require all our assets and will also track our independent accounts. We also get tax and estate planning advice. The 0.9% is less than most active MFs, and while obviously a drag over years, at our ages is less than an issue. I think SP500 index funds are headed for a world of hurt and for the value and international stocks that have done well this year there is a better case for active mangement.
while I am in excellent health, my wife is 4 years younger, will probably outlive me and wants nothing to do with our investments.
Thank you agin Jonathan for a wise and lovely article, with words of wisdom. I have benefited from your sage advice ever since I found you in the WSJ and hope that you will continue to be very involved. We are praying for you and your family.
Such wisdom, Jonathan, and so contrary to what is being pushed out by many other financial and “ life” counselors. The email after yours was from John Mauldin who is pushing a “life transforming “ newsletter( for $1400) that promises health and “wellness” therapies that will allow the lucky subscribers to live for 150 or 200 years and identify companies that will make it happen. These companies are on the “verge” of massive breakthroughs. Of course, they are held back by a criminally incompetent FDA that “should be abolished”. Snake oil salesman. How do people believe this junk?
While I have all our account clustered in Quicken, I always doubt their ROI calculations. It is impossible to tell if they use the true beginning and ending values on multiple account or the whole. If anyone else has solved this please let me know. I also do not know the methodology at Schwab and Fido, so don’t know if they accurately track withdrawals and additions. You would think it would be straight forward, but not. All I know is we have more money now than we did 10 years ago, despite college expenses and buying a new house!
I use face id on apple devices as I figure it is at least as secure as a password. I use 1password for non financial sites. Lastpass got hacked so I switched I am very worried about. security on financial sites, and I suspect we will not hear if Schwab or Fido gets hacked. Isn’t it interesting that Schwab seems to have dropped voice ID? maybe too easy for AI to crack?
I am glad that you managed to find new goals in retirement. Was your goal in life previously really to make money? This seems very superficial; surely you took pride in doing a job well, even if it was personal investing. The people I have known who really only focused on making money seem shallow and can never admit they have reached their goals. How much is enough? The people I have known who were the happiest were people who had jobs they loved so much they would do them for free, like Buffett. I remember waiting for my medical school admittance interview with several other candidates. One announced loudly that he thought becoming a doctor was stupid ( I guess his parents had forced him) because he could make more money by taking the tuition money and investing it. I doubt he was ever very happy in anything he did.
As a retired Primary care doc ( now on straight MC) I can offer the following thoughts based on years of being on the other end, caring for patients on Medicare Advantage. In a nutshell MA plans are a disaster for MDs and patients. As noted the plans are paid more for more “complex” patients( doctors usually aren’t ) but CMS did a poor job defining complex; it basically relates to the total number of coded diagnoses. That is the reason for the house visits from a MA nurse, to find any possible diagnosis and add many codes to otherwise simple things. low thyroid becomes an autoimmune disease, hypertension morphs into kidney and heart disease, etc. $$$ up go the payments the Feds are forced to pay to the plan, every year. This money has nothing to do with the care someone receives, it is gaming the system. Some MA in places with great stable hospital system ( usually at least a duopoly) are OK as they have not choice to use the big University hospital for complex specialties. But it may not be the one you want. Even in CT my MA patients were frequently told they could not go to Yale for heart surgery but had to go to a community hospital with a marginal record. MA plans place a huge burden on MDs and staff who have to jump through hoops to get care plans approved, and many times they are denied without reason, by a clerk. Unless you cannot possible afford traditional MC, stay away from MA. Once you sign up with a MA traditional Medicare will take you back during open enrollment, but the insurance companies running the supplement (paying for 20%) do not have to take you on or can charge you much higher premiums.
Musk and Zuckerberg political activities are a pretty effective counter to your entire argument. I think social media’s control over civic discourse has changed the entire argument. When people amass these huge fortunes and then spend them controlling our government, the consequences are dire and disastrous and will get worse. It started with the Kochs, and “Project 2025” will destroy America, all funded by right wing billionaires. The US defense relies heavily on Starlink and NASA on SpaceX. Remember when Musk cut Ukraine off of Starlink? Do we really want our national security dependent on Elon? Look at Zuckerberg’s recent transformation. He believes in “companies not countries”. He also says “Meta” has no responsibility for stopping falsehoods about vaccinations, election deniers, etc and is sorry he apologized to parents whose kids killed themselves because of Facebook pressure. With his money he apparently can do anything he wants. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/sep/27/mark-zuckerberg-metaverse-ai-elections-mental-health?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other Billionaires are the problem. None of them got there by being nice or supporting the common good. Bill Gates was cited by the NLRB for employment violations when Microsoft had fewer than 50 employees. The example of the Whaltons giving money for art museums ignores the fact that Walmart destroyed previously vibrant small town businesses.
Comments
In general I agree that the political party in DC makes little long term difference in stock returns, although I think Dems have a little edge. However the political party in control now is so divorced from the past principles and experience that I think all predictions are off. I don’t see this as “political” other than all of the dramatic changes in DC come from the GOP. It is more “ideological” where one party now believes the federal government is a useless waste of money, and taxes on the top 0.1% must be cut. Rather than reading the headlines, you need to dig into the numbers and understand what the cuts in federal payroll, budgets, and attacks on hard working people (citizens or not) will do to the economy. I can cite many examples. The attack on working immigrants will cost the USA $100 B a year in the tax revenue they pay (without getting anything for it) and billions more in lost productivity. They work for lower pay and at jobs Americans will not do. For example, construction on Martha’s Vineyard has almost stopped, because of one ICE raid. Many more are planned I am sure. The Budget bill increases the deficit, and cuts taxes; the Bond market knows this. Next year’s proposed budget cuts the NIH, NSF and cancer research by 40 to 50%, but increases ICE budget by 200%. How is this an investment in our future economic progress? Where will the money that has funded our exceptionalism in medical and scientific research come from? Many brilliant international students and faculty are leaving, worried that even if their grants are funded they will be deported. People who believe this money is spent on worthless, lazy “deep state” leeches have never worked in a federal office or research lab, or know anyone who has. Read Michael Lewis’s “Who is the Government” if you really believe government employees do nothing. The National Park Service generates well over $55 B in total economic benefits ( for $3 B budget) in nearby communities, but the proposed budget for next year may close 2/3s of our parks and monuments. The effects on the economy of tariffs are well known from experience during the Depression. Unless things change quickly, tax revenues will drop, deficit spending and unemployment will rise, along with inflation, and America is no longer going to be seen as the world leader of scientific progress and reliability. At current P/Es the SP 500 is priced for perfection, and supported by the same seven or eight stocks. There are much better values elsewhere in the world, and TIPS look very attractive here.
Post: Listen to the Markets
Link to comment from June 1, 2025
1) I am more risk advers than I thought 2) In early retirement saving other than gifts to kids 3) yes as long as it is not minus 30%, but I am diversifying to international stocks 4) My patients all said I was a huge sucess, but were very very upset when I retired 5) It would be nice to have a big boat 6) other than investing, I love the new time retired I have to explore many intellectual pursuits and volunteering 7) Wife 8) this is most interesting one. I cannot bring myself to part with any of my 5000+ books , or sentimental documents from long gone family members. Suits ties, clothes that dont fit, sure (i only wear t shirts now anyway) but everytime I think I should take a book to the book sale I need it the next week. So far my kids are not interested in my geneology documents, but if I toss them they might be.
Post: Ask Me a Tough One
Link to comment from April 19, 2025
Funny this should pop up just as my wife and I ( early 70s) are hiring an advisor for 0.9% . They dont require all our assets and will also track our independent accounts. We also get tax and estate planning advice. The 0.9% is less than most active MFs, and while obviously a drag over years, at our ages is less than an issue. I think SP500 index funds are headed for a world of hurt and for the value and international stocks that have done well this year there is a better case for active mangement. while I am in excellent health, my wife is 4 years younger, will probably outlive me and wants nothing to do with our investments.
Post: Fishing for Feedback
Link to comment from April 19, 2025
Thank you agin Jonathan for a wise and lovely article, with words of wisdom. I have benefited from your sage advice ever since I found you in the WSJ and hope that you will continue to be very involved. We are praying for you and your family.
Post: Four Thoughts
Link to comment from March 2, 2025
Such wisdom, Jonathan, and so contrary to what is being pushed out by many other financial and “ life” counselors. The email after yours was from John Mauldin who is pushing a “life transforming “ newsletter( for $1400) that promises health and “wellness” therapies that will allow the lucky subscribers to live for 150 or 200 years and identify companies that will make it happen. These companies are on the “verge” of massive breakthroughs. Of course, they are held back by a criminally incompetent FDA that “should be abolished”. Snake oil salesman. How do people believe this junk?
Post: Four Questions
Link to comment from December 28, 2024
While I have all our account clustered in Quicken, I always doubt their ROI calculations. It is impossible to tell if they use the true beginning and ending values on multiple account or the whole. If anyone else has solved this please let me know. I also do not know the methodology at Schwab and Fido, so don’t know if they accurately track withdrawals and additions. You would think it would be straight forward, but not. All I know is we have more money now than we did 10 years ago, despite college expenses and buying a new house!
Post: What is The 10 Year Return on Your Portfolio?
Link to comment from December 1, 2024
I use face id on apple devices as I figure it is at least as secure as a password. I use 1password for non financial sites. Lastpass got hacked so I switched I am very worried about. security on financial sites, and I suspect we will not hear if Schwab or Fido gets hacked. Isn’t it interesting that Schwab seems to have dropped voice ID? maybe too easy for AI to crack?
Post: Passkeys, Anyone?
Link to comment from December 1, 2024
I am glad that you managed to find new goals in retirement. Was your goal in life previously really to make money? This seems very superficial; surely you took pride in doing a job well, even if it was personal investing. The people I have known who really only focused on making money seem shallow and can never admit they have reached their goals. How much is enough? The people I have known who were the happiest were people who had jobs they loved so much they would do them for free, like Buffett. I remember waiting for my medical school admittance interview with several other candidates. One announced loudly that he thought becoming a doctor was stupid ( I guess his parents had forced him) because he could make more money by taking the tuition money and investing it. I doubt he was ever very happy in anything he did.
Post: Time’s A-Wasting
Link to comment from November 23, 2024
As a retired Primary care doc ( now on straight MC) I can offer the following thoughts based on years of being on the other end, caring for patients on Medicare Advantage. In a nutshell MA plans are a disaster for MDs and patients. As noted the plans are paid more for more “complex” patients( doctors usually aren’t ) but CMS did a poor job defining complex; it basically relates to the total number of coded diagnoses. That is the reason for the house visits from a MA nurse, to find any possible diagnosis and add many codes to otherwise simple things. low thyroid becomes an autoimmune disease, hypertension morphs into kidney and heart disease, etc. $$$ up go the payments the Feds are forced to pay to the plan, every year. This money has nothing to do with the care someone receives, it is gaming the system. Some MA in places with great stable hospital system ( usually at least a duopoly) are OK as they have not choice to use the big University hospital for complex specialties. But it may not be the one you want. Even in CT my MA patients were frequently told they could not go to Yale for heart surgery but had to go to a community hospital with a marginal record. MA plans place a huge burden on MDs and staff who have to jump through hoops to get care plans approved, and many times they are denied without reason, by a clerk. Unless you cannot possible afford traditional MC, stay away from MA. Once you sign up with a MA traditional Medicare will take you back during open enrollment, but the insurance companies running the supplement (paying for 20%) do not have to take you on or can charge you much higher premiums.
Post: Prefer the Original
Link to comment from October 26, 2024
Musk and Zuckerberg political activities are a pretty effective counter to your entire argument. I think social media’s control over civic discourse has changed the entire argument. When people amass these huge fortunes and then spend them controlling our government, the consequences are dire and disastrous and will get worse. It started with the Kochs, and “Project 2025” will destroy America, all funded by right wing billionaires. The US defense relies heavily on Starlink and NASA on SpaceX. Remember when Musk cut Ukraine off of Starlink? Do we really want our national security dependent on Elon? Look at Zuckerberg’s recent transformation. He believes in “companies not countries”. He also says “Meta” has no responsibility for stopping falsehoods about vaccinations, election deniers, etc and is sorry he apologized to parents whose kids killed themselves because of Facebook pressure. With his money he apparently can do anything he wants. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/sep/27/mark-zuckerberg-metaverse-ai-elections-mental-health?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other Billionaires are the problem. None of them got there by being nice or supporting the common good. Bill Gates was cited by the NLRB for employment violations when Microsoft had fewer than 50 employees. The example of the Whaltons giving money for art museums ignores the fact that Walmart destroyed previously vibrant small town businesses.
Post: In defense of billionaires
Link to comment from September 28, 2024