Doug C

Comments

• Also, I failed to mention that even though the referenced tool advocates and defaults to the "TPAW" strategy, it also provides the ability to show results based on choosing an "SWR" strategy and something it calls an "SPAW" strategy. So either way, even if you choose to use "SWR" it is a very useful and powerful tool 🙂

  Post: Forget the 4% rule.

  Link to comment from March 6, 2026

• I'm no financial expert but here is my take... SWR is based on historical backtesting and sometimes incorporates Monte Carlo analysis. Monte Carlo simulation runs thousands of "what-if" scenarios by randomly shuffling historical market returns (volatility and average growth) to see how your portfolio holds up. Based on criteria you set you then choose a SWR rate to use from start to end. A fixed SWR doesn't instruct you on what, if any, adjustments should be dynamically made over time based on changes in the market. It only bases periodic changes on the inflation seen in that period. An SWR based on looking back over historical returns does not predict what will happen year in and year out into the future.  TPAW (Total Portfolio Allocation and Withdrawal) uses an Amortization-based Withdrawal (ABW) method. It calculates your safe spending every year based on the criteria you set looking at real changes in the market and inflation in that specific time period. Bogleheads has a large conversation on TPAW as well as what can be found at the TPAW tool's website in the help documents. The link to the Bogleheads conversation is at: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=331368 These references would do a much better job than me of expressing the pros and cons of SWR vs TPAW.

  Post: Forget the 4% rule.

  Link to comment from March 6, 2026

• It anecdotally looks like many people (especially those who access sites like Humble Dollar and Bogleheads) may be underspending defensively due to an unknown future. I do this myself. Especially those who have been fortunate enough to fall under these positive situations: 

  • Persistent savers throughout their lives
  • Have built up a retirement fund
  • Have a good social security
  • Maybe have a pension
  • Invested during these recent good financial markets 
  Although using a Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) is a highly touted "rule of thumb" it has its issues.  The most common SWR is the 4% Rule. It suggests you take 4% of your initial portfolio balance in Year 1, then adjust that fixed dollar amount for inflation every year thereafter, regardless of what the stock market does. The Flaw: It is "blind" to current conditions. If the market crashes (a "sequence of returns" risk), you keep withdrawing the same inflation-adjusted amount, which can rapidly deplete a shrinking portfolio. The Result: To avoid going broke in a worst-case scenario, the 4% rule is intentionally too conservative for most people. This often leads to "over-saving" or dying with a massive surplus you could have enjoyed while younger. Because of the above, in addition to other financial tools I use (including Boldin which I really like), I have recently been exploring the use of a tool called "TPAW Planner" (Total Portfolio Allocation and Withdrawal) . It is highly customizable to unique individual financial situations, risk tolerance, and legacy goals, and dynamically adjusts based on market conditions. If you haven't taken a look at this, I'd recommend taking it for a spin as it may help you better evaluate how much you can spend without fear of the unknown (something I have a lot of).

  Post: Forget the 4% rule.

  Link to comment from March 6, 2026

• Here is just one example of what I mean by deceitful: https://yankeeinstitute.org/2026/02/26/connecticut-wants-to-ban-your-leaf-blower-and-use-your-electric-bill-to-pay-for-it/

  Post: All you need to know about health insurance, social security and utility bills – sort of

  Link to comment from February 26, 2026

• Although I have a hard time following this guidance myself, most of the time it is better not to offer advice (especially to adults) unless you are first asked for it.

  Post: Do some seniors make life more difficult for themselves?

  Link to comment from February 21, 2026

• I use Boldin which I recommend as a very good full featured financial planning product. It can handle all of the options you mention and so much more. It has both a crippled free tier, and a paid tier that currently costs $144/year. But there is a 14 day free trial for the full featured version.

  Post: Maximizing Lifetime Retirement Spending

  Link to comment from February 5, 2026

• The website is called FIDSAFE: https://www.fidsafe.com/index.html Very Basic but might be useful. One nice feature is that it has a mechanism to provide access to someone you designate in advance after proof of your death via a death certificate.

  Post: Financial Happiness

  Link to comment from January 24, 2026

• An additional technique to help your children improve their credit rating (FICO score) is to add them as an "authorized user" on one of your long term credit cards WITHOUT giving them access to the card. When you add someone as an authorized user, the entire history of that specific credit card account, including the age of the account and the payment history, is typically reported to the authorized user’s credit bureau file.

  Post: The Debt Free Penalty.

  Link to comment from January 23, 2026

• ​In general I am not in disagreement with the general thrust of your forum post. However, for the "Utility Bill" item, at least in my state (Connecticut), there are some monthly "fees" built in that are really hidden taxes on people who are actually paying for electricity. These fees are called "Public Benefits" charges. On average, the Public Benefits charge typically makes up between 20% and 30% of a standard Eversource residential bill. The "Public Benefits" charge in a CT Eversource utility bill is a collection of costs for state-mandated programs that the utility is required by law to fund. Importantly, Eversource does not keep this money as profit; they collect it from you and pass it through to the state or specific programs. These programs include: - Hardship Programs: This includes the "Systems Benefit Charge," which funds assistance for low-income residents, prevents shutoffs during winter months, and supports programs like Operation Fuel. - Energy Efficiency: Funds "Energize CT" initiatives, such as home energy audits and rebates for energy-efficient appliances. - Renewable Energy: Supports the CT Green Bank and provides incentives for residential solar and electric vehicle (EV) charging. Thus, paying electric customers are funding programs decided on by the state government and not for electricity itself. =========== This is the kind of financial manipulation by our particular state government that I judge to be deceitful: Using our utility bill to pay for governmental programs that should be debated in a more fully transparent way. https://ctmirror.org/2025/05/19/ct-public-benefits-charge/

  Post: All you need to know about health insurance, social security and utility bills – sort of

  Link to comment from January 8, 2026

• According to a CPI Inflation Calculator I found, $10,000 in 1968 is equivalent to $91,000 in 2025. If that is true, you two were already above average in income...

  Post: Fifty-seven years and counting and it’s snowing…again.

  Link to comment from December 14, 2025