"It’s okay to follow the news, but we need to recognize that writers—especially headline writers—tend to have a bias. To grab readers’ attention, they need to make statements that sound like big news. So always ask, what’s the denominator?" I don't much watch the evening news anymore, mostly because of this reason. Whenever there is a "storm" in the east US, where I am, inevitably the commentator will start the news with something like "Breaking news, monster storm in the northeast US, 100 million people at risk". I am one of those people - I end up getting 7 drops of rain and a breeze that wouldn't stop a mosquito. Hmmmm... Kind of dulls the senses after a while.
I used to work fairly closely with someone with someone for years. We each had wildly different opinions on just about every subject. Partly because of this, I think we annoyed the heck out of each other. And yet, over time, because this person always had such a different perspective on every issue we had to deal with, I came to value his opinion. So much so that even when I was working on something that he had no involvement in, I would often solicit his opinion because, while I would not always agree with it, I knew it would be given from a perspective that I did not have, indeed, from a perspective that I could not have. If you are a boss, you would want to make sure there is at always least one of these people in the room when you are making an important decision. As has been said before in different ways, if there are 5 people in a room responsible for making a decision and they all agree, 4 of them are redundant.
You are perceptive. To an engineer, there is always a way to make something better. So, left to an engineer only, a project will never get done since it is always undergoing improvement. We also like things to be yes or no, black or white, 0 or 1. Sometimes it takes us a long time to realize that while many things can be quantified that way - people can not.
"I put DIY in the same category as spreadsheets and budgets – stay as far away as possible."You're cracking me up!!!Some of us (perhaps engineers mostly?, it seems) relax by doing spreadsheets and budgets !
I have been examining this issue and running the numbers as best I can for several years. I came to the conclusion that Roth conversions were almost always the best course of action for my wife and I, for all the reasons stated in your linked articles. So much so that we have even decided to delay medicare for at least 2 years and take the penalty in increased medicare costs for life. But by doing so, I think we can substantially reduce our IRMAA penalties starting at my RMD age of 75. The conversions have also pushed us into higher tax brackets (2 brackets higher) for the time being, but when I looked at projected investment earnings (even being conservative with equity returns) the numbers still point to doing the conversions. Also, I think the death of a spouse is also underappreciated by many in the sense that the survivor gets hit with a higher tax bracket and basically the same combined RMDs. While it seems a bit counter-intuitive to hand over so money in taxes now to the IRS and my state, when I look at the "tax drag" (a term I first heard Mike Piper use in one of the Boglehead event videos) on all taxable and tax-deferred accounts, I think "Rothing" is the superior course of action when looking at the whole financial situation 10 years out or more.
I have followed your postings on CCRCs for some time - I applaud your diligence and thoroughness in the evaluation of CCRCs, as well as your candid and well-thought responses to questions raised in this forum. However, while I realize this is off-topic, I must disagree with your assessment of the Covid pandemic as a "black swan event". Based on the incredibly tightly woven systems regarding world trade and personal travel that have increased perhaps exponentially in the last 20-30 years, many epidemiologists had been expecting a pandemic such as that for quite some time - I had been reading about the potential for it for perhaps 10 years prior to Covid. And, unfortunately, as these pandemic events have no real statistical correlation with each other (since not too much in prevention has changed), I believe it is just as likely the world will experience another. The apparent recent dismantling of the US side of epidemiological research activities and data tracking can only increase those odds, albeit all the while obscuring what might be happening in real time. This comment does in no way negate your overall point - with the numbers cited in the WSJ article, it is a failure rate of <1% over several years. Not bad by most accounts - unless of course if one is in that 1%. Buyer beware applies, yet, it is hard for many folks who are at an advanced age and who also may not be as financially sophisticated to even know what questions to ask. So, generally, in any situation like that, they can (and likely will) become prey.
I had seen this also. It is quite the read - I think there are quite a few "take-aways" in it, especially, in my view, how pursuit of LTC reimbursement can potentially become almost a full time job.
In my state, a hospital group that includes about half the hospitals in the area finally just "gave up" in trying to negotiate with UHC (United Health Care) due to the low reimbursement and ridiculous pre-authorizations ("need a bandaid? you'll have to get the MA (Medicare Advantage) plan to authorize that, that could take a while") and dropped MA altogether. Hmmm.... So, perhaps there is some hope for real change when the providers stop providing. Yes it is unfair to the MA plan members who are caught in the middle, but it should be a clear warning to anyone else considering an MA plan.
Thanx for posting. Actual experiences with any of these systems/bureaucracies that many of have to deal with are invaluable. Whenever people post about experiences, especially "what not to do", as you have, I try to make a note and the reference in a ongoing document I keep. As Warren Buffet has said "It's good to learn from your mistakes. It's better to learn from other people's mistakes."
"I’ve seen occasions where elderly parents, sincerely concerned about not burdening their children, wait too long to acknowledge their challenges, and honestly communicate with their children. At some point the inevitable emergency occurs, and the children now have a more significant burden with little time to plan." My parents are in a CCRC and were in independent living, and, as they hit their 90s, it was clear to all except perhaps them that they needed to move to the next level of care (assisted living). I was trying to have this discussion with them. What I said to them was: "right now, there is no immediate urgency, so perhaps you have 5 months to make a decision on where you want to live if "something happens". If you wait too long and "something happens", you may find yourself in a position where a decision needs to made in in 5 hours, and, you might not even get a vote." Well, with my and my siblings urging (and trying really hard NOT to act like “we know what is good for you”), they ended up transitioning to a higher level of care. The timing was auspicious. They did move, and, within several months, after some steep mental decline topped off with a bad fall, they are now both in the perhaps the last level of care – full-on nursing care. So, even if plans don’t work out, the planning process is very important as it allows one to at least familiarize oneself with the all the possibilities and potential steps to be taken.
Comments
"It’s okay to follow the news, but we need to recognize that writers—especially headline writers—tend to have a bias. To grab readers’ attention, they need to make statements that sound like big news. So always ask, what’s the denominator?" I don't much watch the evening news anymore, mostly because of this reason. Whenever there is a "storm" in the east US, where I am, inevitably the commentator will start the news with something like "Breaking news, monster storm in the northeast US, 100 million people at risk". I am one of those people - I end up getting 7 drops of rain and a breeze that wouldn't stop a mosquito. Hmmmm... Kind of dulls the senses after a while.
Post: How Not To Invest
Link to comment from October 11, 2025
I used to work fairly closely with someone with someone for years. We each had wildly different opinions on just about every subject. Partly because of this, I think we annoyed the heck out of each other. And yet, over time, because this person always had such a different perspective on every issue we had to deal with, I came to value his opinion. So much so that even when I was working on something that he had no involvement in, I would often solicit his opinion because, while I would not always agree with it, I knew it would be given from a perspective that I did not have, indeed, from a perspective that I could not have. If you are a boss, you would want to make sure there is at always least one of these people in the room when you are making an important decision. As has been said before in different ways, if there are 5 people in a room responsible for making a decision and they all agree, 4 of them are redundant.
Post: Under Pressure
Link to comment from July 19, 2025
You are perceptive. To an engineer, there is always a way to make something better. So, left to an engineer only, a project will never get done since it is always undergoing improvement. We also like things to be yes or no, black or white, 0 or 1. Sometimes it takes us a long time to realize that while many things can be quantified that way - people can not.
Post: DIY
Link to comment from July 18, 2025
"I put DIY in the same category as spreadsheets and budgets – stay as far away as possible." You're cracking me up!!! Some of us (perhaps engineers mostly?, it seems) relax by doing spreadsheets and budgets !
Post: DIY
Link to comment from July 18, 2025
I have been examining this issue and running the numbers as best I can for several years. I came to the conclusion that Roth conversions were almost always the best course of action for my wife and I, for all the reasons stated in your linked articles. So much so that we have even decided to delay medicare for at least 2 years and take the penalty in increased medicare costs for life. But by doing so, I think we can substantially reduce our IRMAA penalties starting at my RMD age of 75. The conversions have also pushed us into higher tax brackets (2 brackets higher) for the time being, but when I looked at projected investment earnings (even being conservative with equity returns) the numbers still point to doing the conversions. Also, I think the death of a spouse is also underappreciated by many in the sense that the survivor gets hit with a higher tax bracket and basically the same combined RMDs. While it seems a bit counter-intuitive to hand over so money in taxes now to the IRS and my state, when I look at the "tax drag" (a term I first heard Mike Piper use in one of the Boglehead event videos) on all taxable and tax-deferred accounts, I think "Rothing" is the superior course of action when looking at the whole financial situation 10 years out or more.
Post: Roth conversion opportunities extended
Link to comment from July 10, 2025
I have followed your postings on CCRCs for some time - I applaud your diligence and thoroughness in the evaluation of CCRCs, as well as your candid and well-thought responses to questions raised in this forum. However, while I realize this is off-topic, I must disagree with your assessment of the Covid pandemic as a "black swan event". Based on the incredibly tightly woven systems regarding world trade and personal travel that have increased perhaps exponentially in the last 20-30 years, many epidemiologists had been expecting a pandemic such as that for quite some time - I had been reading about the potential for it for perhaps 10 years prior to Covid. And, unfortunately, as these pandemic events have no real statistical correlation with each other (since not too much in prevention has changed), I believe it is just as likely the world will experience another. The apparent recent dismantling of the US side of epidemiological research activities and data tracking can only increase those odds, albeit all the while obscuring what might be happening in real time. This comment does in no way negate your overall point - with the numbers cited in the WSJ article, it is a failure rate of <1% over several years. Not bad by most accounts - unless of course if one is in that 1%. Buyer beware applies, yet, it is hard for many folks who are at an advanced age and who also may not be as financially sophisticated to even know what questions to ask. So, generally, in any situation like that, they can (and likely will) become prey.
Post: Bankruptcies in continuing care
Link to comment from July 7, 2025
I had seen this also. It is quite the read - I think there are quite a few "take-aways" in it, especially, in my view, how pursuit of LTC reimbursement can potentially become almost a full time job.
Post: Interesting White Coat Investor on Lessons Learned Dealing with a LTC Company
Link to comment from June 18, 2025
In my state, a hospital group that includes about half the hospitals in the area finally just "gave up" in trying to negotiate with UHC (United Health Care) due to the low reimbursement and ridiculous pre-authorizations ("need a bandaid? you'll have to get the MA (Medicare Advantage) plan to authorize that, that could take a while") and dropped MA altogether. Hmmm.... So, perhaps there is some hope for real change when the providers stop providing. Yes it is unfair to the MA plan members who are caught in the middle, but it should be a clear warning to anyone else considering an MA plan.
Post: Author of Medicare Advantage Speaks Out
Link to comment from June 18, 2025
Thanx for posting. Actual experiences with any of these systems/bureaucracies that many of have to deal with are invaluable. Whenever people post about experiences, especially "what not to do", as you have, I try to make a note and the reference in a ongoing document I keep. As Warren Buffet has said "It's good to learn from your mistakes. It's better to learn from other people's mistakes."
Post: Medicare Signup Goes Awry
Link to comment from June 14, 2025
"I’ve seen occasions where elderly parents, sincerely concerned about not burdening their children, wait too long to acknowledge their challenges, and honestly communicate with their children. At some point the inevitable emergency occurs, and the children now have a more significant burden with little time to plan." My parents are in a CCRC and were in independent living, and, as they hit their 90s, it was clear to all except perhaps them that they needed to move to the next level of care (assisted living). I was trying to have this discussion with them. What I said to them was: "right now, there is no immediate urgency, so perhaps you have 5 months to make a decision on where you want to live if "something happens". If you wait too long and "something happens", you may find yourself in a position where a decision needs to made in in 5 hours, and, you might not even get a vote." Well, with my and my siblings urging (and trying really hard NOT to act like “we know what is good for you”), they ended up transitioning to a higher level of care. The timing was auspicious. They did move, and, within several months, after some steep mental decline topped off with a bad fall, they are now both in the perhaps the last level of care – full-on nursing care. So, even if plans don’t work out, the planning process is very important as it allows one to at least familiarize oneself with the all the possibilities and potential steps to be taken.
Post: Who Will Care for Us?
Link to comment from June 5, 2025