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The Nerf Gun Incident: Sunk Costs, Suppressing Fire and the Glassblower

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AUTHOR: Mark Crothers on 5/15/2026

Have you ever watched a small, entirely avoidable expense reveal itself as a window into how modern spending actually works? I recently received a masterclass, courtesy of a Nerf gun, a glass light shade, and my own stubborn refusal to just buy a new kitchen fixture.

It started on New Year’s Eve, or early New Year’s Day, to be precise. Two of the twenty-something guests had discovered my grandkids’ Nerf gun stash and declared war. Being the mature, wiser person in the room, I had them pinned behind the breakfast bar within minutes. Unfortunately, one of my suppressing shots went high and a glass light shade exploded, raining down on my enemies in what was, objectively, a spectacular conclusion to any firefight.

Then came the financial reckoning.

The fixture was a matte chrome light sculpture, four pendant shades over the breakfast bar, original cost around $2,500. It had required seventeen lighting store visits and more sales assistant input than any human should endure, and had become the undisputed focal point of the kitchen. Now one of the four shades was gone. Here’s where the math gets rather sad. A four-shade fixture missing one shade isn’t worth 75% of its value; aesthetically, emotionally, practically, it’s worth approximately nothing.

The sunk cost of the original $2,500 was now holding the remaining fixture hostage to a single $40 piece of glass. Except that $40 piece of glass didn’t exist anywhere on the open market. Weeks of searching confirmed what I’d suspected: the manufacturer had discontinued the shade entirely. This is the part where I’d normally chalk it up to bad luck, except it’s not bad luck at all.

It’s a business strategy. Make replacement parts easy to source and you’ve sold someone a $40 component; make them impossible to source and you’ve nudged them toward a $2,500 repurchase. The replacement shade you stock costs warehousing, logistics, and eats into a future full-unit sale. The replacement shade you discontinue generates zero cost and, eventually, a repurchase from a consumer who’s already demonstrated they’ll pay the premium.

The really elegant part, and I say this with genuine grudging admiration, is that they’ve correctly identified our sentimentality as a financial liability we’ll absorb on their behalf. That breakfast bar light isn’t just a light. It’s “the” light, the one that works with the splashback tiles and the cabinet handles and the general thesis of the kitchen. Replacing it means reopening every connected decision.

This is price anchoring working in reverse. Normally, anchoring means showing you an expensive option first so a cheaper one feels reasonable. Here, your own sunk emotional investment anchors you to the existing fixture so aggressively that a $325 custom replacement feels like the bargain move. Compared to $2,500, it genuinely is — and the manufacturer created that anchor by discontinuing the $40 part in the first place.

The resolution arrived through a friend’s suggestion: a bespoke replacement from an artisan glassblower, commissioned for $325. On paper, I paid a 700% premium over the component’s original retail value. In practice, I paid to protect a $2,500 asset and avoid a much larger repurchase, which makes the $325 the rational choice…I think.

The artisan glassblower exists precisely because the manufacturer created the gap. Every time a corporation decides that replacement parts are bad for margins, it creates a micro-market for someone with a blowtorch and genuine skill. The planned obsolescence economy and the artisan economy are symbiotic: one manufactures the problem and the other charges a premium to solve it.

The real lesson isn’t “don’t play Nerf guns indoors”, though Suzie made that point with considerable clarity and forcefulness. It’s that the moment you buy something designed to be irreplaceable, you’ve handed a portion of your future financial decisions to whoever manufactured it. They knew that when they priced it. You just didn’t know it yet — thank god for glassblowers is all I have to say.

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Mike A
23 days ago

The other option, find one close that you like and replace all four.

David Lancaster
24 days ago

Two years ago I started down the sunk cost road. My lawn is too large for a standard width lawn mower to be efficient. The yard’s hill and layout make it questionable to utilize a lawn tractor. The solution was a 1K thirty inch self propelled lawn mower which I purchased three years before the problems started.

At the end of the third mowing season I heard a strange sound and suspected one of the belts was failing. I decided that at that age it would be best to bring it to a certified dealer rather than the local repair shop to give it a once over due to its age. Unfortunately since I have a very healthy lawn I was still cutting it after the dealers had switched to snowblowers. I found an ex repairman of a manufacturer’s dealer. While was replacing all the belts he noticed the pulleys were worn total cost about $300. The next spring the engine would stall after it got hot. Replacement of the fuel filter with one of the two spindles was another $300 but I figured it was worth it. The engine problem was still present so now a gasket. Decided to replace as already spent $600, so another $200. Still the same problems so decided to bring to a certified dealer with another $300 bill to fix the engine and replace the other spindle as I hand already spent $800, and surely the dealer would correct the problem. Nope two more trips for free. Meanwhile I now hated cutting the lawn because I never could depend on the mower.

Final solution $1,500 for the same one as reviews of others at same width were poor. I now have $1,100 worth of repairs to the deck in my basement without the engine. I now have a partial parts department below me.

Last edited 24 days ago by David Lancaster
David Lancaster
24 days ago

PS I even tried replacing the engine but they were back ordered, with no date of availability.

zachsdad1
24 days ago

Here’s an alternative – use regular sized marshmallows instead of the nerf gun indoors. Years ago, my son threw a bachelor party for his best friend in our home. My wife had a bowl of marshmallows on the coffee table. Well, boys and things to throw are an automatic combination. They began throwing them at each other and had a ball doing so. When we sold the house to move to our condo, we found all kinds of hardened marshmallows under the furniture when we moved them. Since then, we regularly have people for hospitality in our condo. After dinner and dessert, we break out a bag with the announcement:”Do you like marshmallows? We do, too, but not to eat. We’d rather throw them!” Then we toss a couple of bags at the guests and begin tossing them at each other. We have not broken anything despite the fact that we have done this for 25+ years. We do have marshmallow blasters but only use those to shoot marshmallows off the back deck. The look of surprise on many guests (especially the kids) the first time is worth the cost of admission. Many ask for a repeat performance. Just my $0.02. {This is a financial website after all).

Dan Smith
24 days ago

Chrissy’s brother, and her nephew, are only a few years apart in age. They practically grew up as brothers, they reciprocate by buying goofy presents for each other at the family Christmas gift exchanges. Several years ago, one of them purchased a pair of nerf guns. A gunfight erupted inside the  house, it was fun until someone literally nearly had an eye poked out. 
I know the point of the post wasn’t about nerf guns, but I couldn’t resist telling the story. The only other thing I have to add is that Chrissy sure likes Suzie’s style, and would love to see a photo of the carnage caused by the battle.

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