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A very interesting blog post from this morning, on the White Coat Investor site.
Upshot: its REALLY hard to deplete all of your assets if you spend 4% or more……many things need to go wrong
As an aside: the chart showing the “famous” spending smile from David Blanchett is likely incorrect, in a good way – new data shows that the rise in spending at the right side of the curve, is actually quite small with a minimal rise in annual spending – see link.
Mark, your link, linked me up with this great video from Charlie Munger;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UuHq_NsUwSE
Dan, I only listened to the first one minute of this 50 minute video. He says it perfectly in that one minute ! My impression is that people are WAY WAY over concerned about running out of money. Unless you are foolish, stupid, or have the worst luck imaginable, it seems like it’s a very hard thing to do !
There are no gold medals, not even a participation award (we are in 2026 after all ! ), for being the richest person in the graveyard.
Mark, thanks for the link to the White Coat Investor article. A good description of the basis and nuances of safe withdrawal rates.
His approach of considering the probability of running out of money over a particular timeframe, and the probability of dying during that same period, certainly gives a fresh perspective.